Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Pernod Ricard is currently undervalued, trading at a P/E of 12.83, the lowest since 2009. The investment thesis is that once mid single digit growth in revenue and earnings resumes, the stock will experience a P/E rerating back to its historical mean of 20 times earnings.

BSD Analysis:
Pernod Ricard's strategic international brands, which represent a significant portion of sales, provide strong visibility and growth potential. The company's ability to disclose detailed brand performance enhances investor confidence. Despite recent headwinds, the company's focus on its core brands and strategic divestment of underperforming segments, like the wine business, positions it well for future growth. The expected recovery in pricing and continued volume growth should drive a 25% increase in strategic international brand sales by 2030. With a projected 5% CAGR in overall sales, Pernod Ricard is poised to return to mid single digit growth, supporting the thesis of a P/E rerating.

Pitch Summary:
The investor has added Booking Holdings to their portfolio due to a recent 7.5% decline in the stock price, which presented a buying opportunity. The investor has been waiting for a price dip to increase their position in this major player in the travel industry.

BSD Analysis:
Booking Holdings is a dominant force in the online travel industry, benefiting from a strong brand portfolio and global reach. The recent decline in stock price, attributed to market fluctuations, has provided an attractive entry point for investors looking to capitalize on the company's long-term growth potential. The travel industry is poised for recovery and expansion post-pandemic, and Booking Holdings is well-positioned to capture increased demand. The investor's decision to increase their stake reflects confidence in the company's ability to leverage its market position and technological advancements to drive future growth. However, potential risks include economic downturns and competitive pressures from other travel service providers.

Pitch Summary:
GrainCorp rose 16% over the quarter, supported by the September 2025 ABARES crop forecast update, which reinforced confidence in record crop volumes and provided greater visibility into FY26 earnings. Forecasts now point to a 30 million tonne ECA winter crop, 29% above the 10-year average. We view this as a key earnings catalyst that underpins stronger momentum into FY26, particularly as GrainCorp no longer needs to pay out under its Crop Production Contract. The company’s expanded $75m buyback program (to March 2026) has seen ~$15m executed to date, and we anticipate scope for further capital management as the FY26 outlook firms up. In addition, the feasibility study by Ampol and its MOU partners Ampol and IFM Investors into development of a potential Sustainable Aviation Fuel supply chain gained support in September, with the announcement by the Australian government of a $1.1bn incentive programme to develop renewable fuels using locally sourced agricultural and waste feedstocks. While this potential biofuels project is longer dated, it could provide further upside and revenue diversification for GrainCorp.

BSD Analysis:
GrainCorp is an agricultural logistics and processing business hostage to weather and global grain flows. Earnings swing with harvest volumes, crush margins, and export demand. Infrastructure assets provide strategic value but not consistent returns. Cost control matters more than growth strategy. The bull case appears in strong crop years with favorable spreads. The bear case is drought, weak volumes, and margin compression. Capital returns are lumpy by nature. The market struggles to value cyclicality correctly. GrainCorp is a cycle trade, not a compounder.

Pitch Summary:
Ingenia Communities ended the quarter broadly flat. The company delivered a solid FY25 result in August, exceeding EPS guidance and trading up 4% on the day, though the stock later eased back. Our investment in Ingenia has been highly successful to date, generating an unlevered IRR for the Fund in excess of 20% as at 30 September 2025. The Board and management refresh that we have supported during the period of our shareholding is now delivering, with a clear strategy being executed on with greater focus on operating efficiencies and financial returns. We continue to see a strong outlook supported by demographic tailwinds, operating leverage, and a targeted 5-year settlements CAGR of 10-15%.

BSD Analysis:
Ingenia combines lifestyle communities with development upside, creating a higher-risk, higher-reward profile than pure operators. Execution quality determines whether development enhances or destroys returns. The demand backdrop is supportive, but funding costs matter enormously. Scale helps sourcing and marketing, but does not eliminate cyclicality. The company must balance growth ambition with balance-sheet realism. Any housing downturn hits sentiment quickly. The bull case is disciplined rollout and occupancy gains. The bear case is leverage plus timing risk. Ingenia is attractive only when capital discipline is visible.

Pitch Summary:
Lifestyle Communities (LIC) underperformed this quarter, down -18% following the negative outcome at the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) in early July. In early September, LIC lodged an appeal with the Supreme Court of Victoria, with a decision expected to take 6–12 months. Despite near-term challenges, we remain constructive on the outlook, supported by: Supportive macro drivers underscored by ageing downsizers and persistent housing undersupply; A clear plan to de-lever the balance sheet below $360m by December 2025, supported by $114m of contracted non-core land sales due to settle over FY26, materially reducing equity raise risk; Signs of stabilisation in new home settlements, with 35 already completed and 162 contracted in FY26. While still below the historical >300 average, volumes appear to be recovering from the FY25 trough against the backdrop of a recovering Victorian property market; Optionality from a favourable (albeit uncertain) outcome on the VCAT appeal; and Valuation support, with LIC still trading at a discount to NAV/share (ex-deferred tax losses).

BSD Analysis:
Lifestyle Communities benefits from Australia’s aging population and demand for affordable retirement living. The land-lease model produces attractive returns when financing conditions cooperate. Revenue visibility is strong once communities stabilize. However, the business is highly sensitive to interest rates and housing liquidity. Development risk sits alongside operational cash flows. Political and regulatory scrutiny on retirement living is rising. The bull case is steady expansion with disciplined capital management. The bear case is stalled development and balance-sheet strain. Lifestyle is a housing play wearing a defensive costume.

Pitch Summary:
Baby Bunting was a strong contributor to portfolio performance during the quarter, up ~68% following the release of its FY25 results in August. The results continue to reinforce the turnaround strategy we have supported, with gross margin reaching 40.2%, ahead of the 40% target. While the share price has responded positively, we continue to see further upside. The refurbishment program is particularly encouraging, with the first three sites reporting average sales growth of ~28% vs the pcp and 10-15 more refurbishments targeted each year. Store rollout is also building momentum, with eight openings planned in FY26 (five large formats and three small format pilots). As the network expands and refurbished stores deliver stronger sales, we expect scale benefits to come through in the cost base, further supporting margin expansion. Gross margins should also continue to improve as renegotiated supplier agreements annualise, retail media grows, and the sales mix tilts further toward private label and exclusive products, particularly in the new formats. We believe the market is underestimating the compounding effect of these drivers and the operating leverage as the store network grows. We see a path for Baby Bunting to return to ~10% EBITDA margins, a step-change in earnings power from the current ~5% base and expect this to drive further value creation and a meaningful re-rate.

BSD Analysis:
Baby Bunting is a category specialist exposed directly to Australian birth rates and consumer confidence. Its niche positioning supports some pricing power, but volume trends dominate outcomes. The category is structurally slow-growing, making execution paramount. Inventory management mistakes are costly in discretionary retail. Competition from generalists and online players is persistent. The bull case is operational efficiency and share gains in a fragmented market. The bear case is demographic decline and margin compression. Expansion must be cautious to avoid dilution. Baby Bunting works only with disciplined retail execution.

Pitch Summary:
Lendlease finished the quarter up 2.3%. The FY25 result in August was in line with guidance and reinforced progress on the simplification plan we have encouraged management to pursue. The share price reaction on the day of the result (+6.7%) reflected improving confidence in the turnaround. We remain of the view that Lendlease is positioned for a re-rate: Further capital recycling ($2.5bn executed to date and further sales in advanced stages) enabling the $500m buyback (~13% of market cap); Replenishment of the Australian development pipeline ($25bn of opportunities identified for the next 12 months, $10bn targeted to convert); Growth in new investment mandates, with ~$4bn of new FUM already underway through its international platform, alongside the UK Crown Estate JV providing optionality over a further ~$24bn pipeline across build-to-rent, life sciences and sustainable office; and The stock continues to trade at a discount to NTA, with little recognition of the strength in its core Investments, Development and Construction businesses.

BSD Analysis:
Lendlease is a complex global developer exposed to construction risk, capital cycles, and execution variance. Its integrated model promises value capture across development, construction, and asset management—but complexity cuts both ways. Capital intensity is high, and balance-sheet discipline is critical. Project delays and cost overruns can quickly erase expected returns. The bull case relies on urban regeneration and infrastructure demand. The bear case is capital misallocation and weak returns on mega-projects. Investor trust has been eroded by past disappointments. Valuation reflects skepticism, not optimism. Lendlease is a prove-it-again story.

Pitch Summary:
If Jardines and its affiliates represent our “value” holdings in the Asian consumer space, our 2% position in Sea Limited sits at the “growth” end of the spectrum. Founded by Singaporean entrepreneur Forrest Li, Sea has built three complementary businesses in video games (Garena), e-commerce (Shopee), and payments (Shopee Pay). Sea is not conventionally cheap, trading at higher multiples than our core holdings and with an intrinsic value that is harder to pin down. But we are comfortable paying up for the combination of market leadership in Southeast Asia, an exceptional founder/CEO, and a long runway for growth.

BSD Analysis:
Sea’s reset — cutting burn, focusing on profitability, and rationalizing growth — is working. Shopee remains Southeast Asia’s dominant e-commerce platform, and margins have improved dramatically. Garena is stabilizing, not collapsing, and SeaMoney is becoming a legitimate fintech franchise. Investors overreacted to the post-COVID hangover, creating a valuation gap. Execution risk remains, but the company now behaves like an actual business, not a land-grab machine. SE’s ecosystem scale is still unmatched regionally. A recovered growth story that the market hasn’t fully forgiven.

Pitch Summary:
In Indonesia, Jardines has a significant stake in Astra International, the country’s largest conglomerate exposed to two key economic drivers, namely, domestic consumption and mining. Through its long-standing joint venture with Honda, Astra accounts for roughly 75% of domestic motorcycle sales, while its partnerships with Toyota and Daihatsu give it close to half the local passenger car market. These businesses are supported by captive financing arms that underwrite a majority of purchases, embedding Astra deeply into Indonesian household spending patterns. The result is a formidable and resilient franchise that captures both the affordability of bikes and the aspirational demand for cars as Indonesia’s middle class expands. In its mining business, Astra generates stable cash flows from its heavy equipment dealership and maintenance operations as Komatsu’s local partner, as well as from contracting services to local coal mine owners. At the same time, Astra also operates its own mines and is investing in gold and nickel assets to reduce its dependence on coal. … Astra International, for its part, is priced at just seven times earnings with an attractive 7% dividend yield, indicating the market’s pessimism about its future outlook.

BSD Analysis:
Astra is Indonesia’s industrial and consumer powerhouse, with dominant positions in autos, heavy equipment, financial services, and agribusiness. Earnings are diversified and resilient, benefiting from a growing middle class and infrastructure buildout. The company’s balance sheet is strong and governance relatively clean for a conglomerate. Despite this, the stock trades at a discount due to cyclical worries. Astra is structurally tied to one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. This is EM quality hiding in plain sight. Stable, diversified, and consistently undervalued.

Pitch Summary:
A good place to begin the discussion is with Jardine Matheson or “Jardines”, which we have mentioned in previous commentaries. Founded nearly 200 years ago, Jardines is one of Asia’s most storied conglomerates, with roots tracing back to Hong Kong’s early days as a British colony. Still controlled by the founding Keswick family, now in its fifth generation, Jardines is best thought of as a capital allocator across a portfolio of market-leading businesses with exposure to consumers and local economies throughout Asia. Taken together, our International Equity Strategy holds a 4% position in the various Jardines group companies, which would make it the Strategy’s largest holding if it were a single company. Our enthusiasm is fuelled by strikingly low valuations across this basket of shares due to investor concerns about weak fundamentals in some segments and broader China-related fears. Jardine Matheson trades at roughly ten times earnings and offers a 5% dividend yield with a solid track record of mid-single digit growth.

BSD Analysis:
Jardine Matheson remains one of Asia’s most durable conglomerates, with marquee holdings in retail, real estate, autos, and infrastructure. Yet the market values it like a sluggish empire past its prime. Cash flows are stable, asset quality is high, and the balance sheet is conservative — classic value dislocation. The conglomerate discount is steep, but the underlying businesses remain resilient. Exposure to Southeast Asian consumption provides long-term tailwinds. Jardine won’t deliver fireworks, but it will deliver consistency. Under-owned, under-appreciated blue-chip.

Pitch Summary:
Five years ago CRISPR was a popular stock among growth-oriented investors, known for pioneering CRISPR gene-editing technology. However, the biotech sentiment implosion has been so profound that we can now buy CRISPR at a discount to just the cash on its balance sheet plus the value of its commercialised therapy, Casgevy, which is used to treat sickle-cell disease and transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia. Guided by scientist-CEO Dr Samarth Kulkarni, CRISPR Therapeutics became the first company to get a CRISPR-based therapy approved by regulators. Because every patient must clear eligibility screens, undergo stem-cell harvesting, and be treated at a steadily expanding network of specialised centres, uptake follows a measured, step-like curve, unlike conventional drugs that generate revenue almost immediately after approval. Our market assessment suggests Casgevy is a multibillion-dollar opportunity with a strong competitive position and no visible patent cliff. And partnering with Vertex gives Casgevy the commercial muscle it deserves while allowing CRISPR to remain research-focused. Despite this, the market’s expectations remain muted, constrained by the therapy’s unusual launch trajectory. That disconnect in share price is magnified by the company’s healthy balance sheet: management raised substantial capital when financing was readily accessible, enabling CRISPR to keep funding high-upside research while many peers are slashing budgets. For biotech investors, long-term returns hinge on two things: whether drug sales ultimately exceed market expectations, and whether each additional dollar of R&D earns an attractive return. Companies that succeed at both compound capital over time, while those that fail destroy it. That’s why our research emphasises two essentials—identifying underappreciated drugs and backing disciplined management teams with a proven ability to allocate capital. As summarised in the table below, the Orbis Global Equity Strategy currently owns four businesses we believe meet this high bar, each trading at undemanding valuations that offer limited downside and meaningful upside.

BSD Analysis:
CRISPR Therapeutics has crossed the threshold from science project to commercial gene-editing company with exa-cel approval validating platform credibility. The next chapters — in vivo editing and allogeneic oncology — are where the real optionality lies. Volatility will remain intense, but the company’s cash runway and partnerships provide stability. Bears point to competition and slow adoption, but the TAM for gene editing is enormous. CRSP now needs operational discipline, not scientific miracles. If execution catches up to innovation, upside is substantial. A defining platform with category-shaping potential.

Pitch Summary:
The newest addition to our biotech holdings, Insmed, has achieved a major milestone with the recent FDA approval of brensocatib (brand name: BRINSUPRI) for bronchiectasis—with a clean label and strong pricing. This marks the first approved therapeutic option for patients with this chronic lung disease, whose quality-of-life burden is comparable to that of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We anticipate a rapid adoption curve that should push the company toward sustained profitability. The attraction, however, goes well beyond a single drug. The second pipeline asset, TPIP, has now achieved key clinical validation in pulmonary arterial hypertension as well as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, reinforcing its potential as a transformative therapy for patients suffering from deadly lung diseases. Combined with its already approved ARIKAYCE for Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease, the launch of brensocatib and the progress of TPIP are helping Insmed build a powerful respiratory disease franchise—a disease-focused strategy that has proven lucrative for other biotech leaders. Despite a recent rally following BRINSUPRI approval and TPIP clinical readouts, shares remain well below our estimate of their intrinsic value, leaving substantial room for multi-year appreciation. Insmed is led by its long-time CEO Will Lewis, who took the helm when the company’s market capitalisation was under $100 million (now $30 billion). During his tenure, the company has created significant shareholder value through disciplined R&D bets. A continuation of this strategy should lead to further value creation that the market is not pricing into the shares.

BSD Analysis:
Insmed’s brensocatib sets up one of biotech’s biggest potential catalysts, attacking a massive unmet need in bronchiectasis with credible early data. The TAM is huge, and commercial ramp could be explosive if Phase 3 hits. Cash burn is high, but that’s the price of swinging for real clinical impact. Bears fixate on dilution risk, but the upside dwarfs the financing concerns. Insmed has a diversified pipeline providing multiple shots on goal. The stock trades with heavy skepticism — ideal for a catalyst-driven name. High conviction, high volatility, real upside.

Pitch Summary:
Distinguished by its proven antibody discovery engine that has yielded eight approved medicines, Genmab is approaching patent expirations for its flagship product, Darzalex, in the late 2020s and early 2030s. Investors routinely flee when a patent cliff looms, fixating on the certain loss of legacy revenue while discounting whatever might replace it. Genmab sits squarely in that sentiment trough. Today its shares trade for less than the value of already-approved drugs, implying the world-class pipeline and discovery engine are worth nothing. Meanwhile, a slate of late-stage assets and a growing roster of partnered drugs are only beginning to contribute revenue, with sales and royalties that extend well into the 2030s. Genmab’s R&D machine is still run by its scientist-founder, Dr Jan van de Winkel, whose more than two-decade tenure and sizeable equity stake have fostered disciplined capital allocation and scientific excellence. The company’s recent acquisition of ProfoundBio adds antibody-drug-conjugate technology that slots neatly into Genmab’s core expertise, expanding the opportunity set without stretching the balance sheet. Yet, the market still treats Genmab as a single-product story, allowing investors to buy the stock at a price that’s lower than the value of its commercialised drugs’ cash flows alone and get a world-class discovery platform for free.

BSD Analysis:
Genmab is evolving from royalty collector to full commercial biotech, with a pipeline of bispecifics and next-gen antibodies that give it real long-term upside. Royalty streams provide cushion while internal programs ramp. The balance sheet is pristine, margins are strong, and clinical execution has been consistently solid. Investors still price Genmab like a slow-growth Scandinavian pharma, not a global oncology innovator. Big catalysts from multiple trials provide meaningful convexity. The story isn’t flashy, but it’s durable. A European biotech powerhouse hiding behind conservative optics.

Pitch Summary:
This company stands at the forefront of RNA-interference (RNAi) therapeutics, a technology capable of silencing specific gene expressions and reducing harmful proteins. After decades of development, RNAi has proven safe and effective in treating serious diseases like Transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM). Each of Alnylam’s four marketed medicines and two partnered medicines were invented in-house—a remarkable R&D productivity streak highlighting its scientific prowess. Earlier this year Alnylam received regulatory approval for its next-generation ATTR-CM medicine, Amvuttra. We believe Amvuttra represents a best-in-class treatment that will significantly benefit patients. With the first commercial quarter results now in, Amvuttra has exceeded market expectations by a wide margin, validating our initial thesis. Alnylam’s management team, led by CEO Dr. Yvonne Greenstreet, continues to demonstrate both scientific rigour and strong commercial execution. This stronger-than-expected sales ramp puts Alnylam firmly on track to achieve profitability this year and strengthens its position among biotech giants like Vertex and Gilead.

BSD Analysis:
Alnylam continues to own the RNAi space with a pipeline and commercial portfolio that most biotech CEOs would kill for. Margins expand as revenue scales, and the platform’s optionality across cardiometabolic and rare diseases keeps widening. Partnerships provide non-dilutive funding and external validation. Bears gripe about valuation, but they underestimate the durability of Alnylam’s technology moat. The next wave of late-stage readouts will be decisive in proving RNAi can dominate multiple large indications. The company executes with discipline and consistency. A premium biotech compounder with real staying power.

Pitch Summary:
However, loans held on the balance sheet rose to nearly $1B, largely driven by $700M in R&D (Home and Auto) loans. CEO Dave Girouard called this a timing issue tied to new product lines, noting plans to move these loans off balance sheet by year-end. Wall Street was unimpressed, and the subsequent $600M convertible note raise did little to improve confidence in Upstart’s ability to sell these loans. We believe this is purely a timing issue, as both Auto and HELOC continue to scale rapidly, growing 6x and 9x YoY, respectively. Later in August, we identified a partnership between Upstart and Progressive that had yet to gain mainstream attention. Originally and quietly announced in 2019, the collaboration remains active today. Progressive periodically emails its customers offering personal loan options and those who click through are redirected directly to Upstart’s platform. This partnership gains synergy as Upstart begins to launch and scale new credit products (such as Auto and HELOC) enabling them to better serve more borrowers.

BSD Analysis:
Upstart is still swinging between brilliance and chaos — a company with real AI underwriting tech stuck in a credit market that refuses to cooperate. Loan buyers are picky, cost of capital is high, and funding inconsistency keeps throttling growth. Yet the model works when macro stabilizes, and the speed of conversion improvement during good quarters hints at massive torque. The market treats UPST like a failed idea, which creates an opportunity if macro tailwinds ever return. Execution must tighten, but the core thesis isn’t dead. UPST is volatility personified — and that’s exactly what gives it upside.

Pitch Summary:
In Q3 2025, Heartwood sold Shark Ninja (SN) and Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) to rotate into CoreWeave (CRWV). We had a very small position in Shark Ninja, at a substantial gain, and believed the opportunity costs was too great not to reallocate capital. In the case of ASO… We believe CoreWeave better fits these principles.

BSD Analysis:
CoreWeave is scaling faster than almost any infrastructure provider in the AI ecosystem, building GPU clusters that customers simply can’t source from legacy clouds. The company moves aggressively, iterating hardware partnerships, networking, and scheduling tech to deliver superior performance for specialized workloads. Demand from AI labs, VFX studios, and high-performance compute clients is exploding. CoreWeave is unprofitable — but that’s because it’s sprinting to capture a land grab where speed is everything. The strategic value of a GPU-optimized cloud cannot be overstated. If CoreWeave maintains momentum, it becomes one of the defining winners of the AI infrastructure era. A future IPO rocket.

Pitch Summary:
We rotated the small principal left from the sale into Nebius (NBIS) at a cost basis of $31.35, with shares currently trading for $121.80. The resulting 288% gain has not only fully offset our entire DNUT loss, but has generated incremental outperformance for the fund. This trade now stands as Heartwood’s best ever.

BSD Analysis:
Nebius is positioning itself as a specialized AI cloud platform at a moment when enterprises desperately want alternatives to hyperscaler lock-in. Its GPU-dense configurations and low-latency architecture give it real differentiation for training and inference workloads. Early customer momentum suggests the market is hungry for a more flexible high-performance compute provider. Revenue is still emerging, but the demand signal is real. The question isn’t whether the TAM is big — it’s whether Nebius can scale faster than competitors notice. If it executes, Nebius becomes a must-own asset in the AI infrastructure stack. A high-upside, early-stage cloud disruptor.

Pitch Summary:
In Q4 2024, Heartwood took a large stake in Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC) which was funded by our sale of Google. We believed that as the AI race accelerated, data center power constraints would become much more visible to the broader market. UEC, as an American uranium miner (u3o8 is the core ‘ingredient’ in nuclear energy), was perfectly positioned to benefit from this accelerated demand. While GOOGL shares have risen nearly 40% since our exit, our UEC position has appreciated over 130%, transforming it into Heartwood’s largest holding.

BSD Analysis:
UEC is a pure torque play on the West’s scramble for nuclear fuel independence, with strategic U.S.-based assets that position it perfectly as geopolitics tighten. The company isn’t the lowest-cost producer, but its footprint aligns with a government-backed reshoring wave that rewrites the economics of uranium supply. Physical uranium holdings add ballast and optionality. Volatility is part of the package — the stock overshoots in both directions. But if uranium enters a sustained deficit (and signs point that way), UEC’s leverage becomes a feature, not a bug. This is not a yield story — it’s a conviction bet on a multi-year nuclear renaissance. High torque, high upside.

Pitch Summary:
Shares of Grindr have entered into a steep decline over the quarter. The market now believes GRND faces increased competition, from a fast growing “orgy” dating app Sniffies, as well as overstated/inflated user metrics. While Grindr has addressed these concerns, ARPPU growth came in light during their most recent quarter and a short report was issued, adding steam to this narrative. We continue to believe Grindr is positioned well to become the social network for the LGBTQ+ community and we anticipate adding to our stake in Q3.

BSD Analysis:
Grindr’s engagement metrics are off the charts, giving it one of the stickiest user bases in social media — a rare advantage in a churn-heavy industry. The company is finally monetizing intelligently with tiered subscriptions and richer features that boost ARPU without hurting usage. Margins are exceptional for a company this size, but governance quirks keep institutions cautious. The core product is highly defensible — there is no meaningful competitor with its community depth or brand equity. Growth is lumpy, yet the long-term trajectory remains compelling. If management tightens execution and improves transparency, rerating follows quickly. GRND is one of the few niche social platforms with real pricing power.

Pitch Summary:
Our largest holding, Upstart, reported mixed Q2 2025 results, holding an increased position of loans on the balance sheet. This caused shares to fall nearly 20% following ER, as the market expected an ATM capital raise which was soon to follow. Additionally, in late September, BTIG, an investment management firm, published a report claiming Upstart delinquencies had risen rapidly, putting further pressure on shares. This report was factually inaccurate and we shall have more to say on it later in this letter.

Grindr’s shares declined sharply in Q3 2025 amid competition from emerging apps and a short report on user metrics. Maple Tree disputes these concerns, citing stable engagement and growth potential as the platform evolves into a social hub for the LGBTQ+ community. The fund expects ARPPU growth to recover and plans to add to its position as capital allows.

Maple Tree Capital remains long Upstart. We continue to believe the company’s fundamental improvements (a diversified product, borrower and funding base) coupled with their rapidly growing AI edge position then well to become the leading AI lending marketplace.

BSD Analysis:
Upstart keeps swinging at the same pitch — AI underwriting that outperforms FICO — but the macro backdrop has been unforgiving. Loan performance volatility and a skittish funding environment keep throttling growth. Even so, the tech has real potential: conversion improves when partners return, and Upstart’s models remain meaningfully smarter than traditional scoring. The market’s treating this like a broken idea, but the revenue torque could be explosive if credit normalizes. Execution still matters — one bad cohort spoils the narrative fast. High-risk, high-reward, and still deeply misunderstood. UPST is an option on a future where underwriting is automated.