Amazon.com, Inc.
Pitch Summary: Amazon is positioned for long-term growth driven by operational leverage and automation, which are expected to enhance margins and reduce costs. The company’s strategic investments in AI and autonomous systems are set to optimize efficiency and sustain its competitive edge. BSD Analysis: Amazon’s recent Q3 earnings report highlights a 13% increase in net […]
ABB Ltd
Pitch Summary: ABB’s multiyear process improvement program has led to faster revenue growth and higher profitability, driven by data center demand. BSD Analysis: ABB Ltd has successfully implemented a multiyear process improvement program that has enhanced its operational efficiency and profitability. The company’s focus on low- and medium-voltage applications, factory automation, and motors has positioned […]
Alight Inc. (ALIT)
Pitch Summary: Alight administers employee benefits for over 5,000 corporate clients and 35 million participants globally, with $2.4B in annual revenue. The stock has declined sharply due to execution issues, insider selling, and macro pressures, but 2025 marks an operational inflection following its multi-year cloud transformation and business simplification. Recent divestitures, a new CEO from […]
Frasers PLC (FRAS LN)
Pitch Summary: Frasers is a UK multi-format retailer (Sports Direct, Flannels, House of Fraser, Game) trading at ~7× FY25 P/E and ~7.9× TEV/EBIT, a discount to history and peers. Management (founder Mike Ashley owns ~73%) has a long record of tight operations and opportunistic capital allocation; CEO Michael Murray’s pay is heavily share-price linked. Core […]
My Process for Finding Great Investments w/ Kyle Grieve (TIP755)
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- Investment Philosophy: Kyle Grieve emphasizes investing like a business owner, focusing on long-term value and trusting management teams, rather than engaging in speculative trading.
- Learning from Mistakes: Grieve’s early experiences in cryptocurrency taught him the importance of understanding investments, avoiding leverage, and the risks of technical indicators.
- Portfolio Strategy: He categorizes investments into quality businesses and micro-cap inflection points, focusing on competitive advantages, management alignment, and high returns on invested capital.
- Investment Goals: Grieve aims to double his capital every five years by selecting investments with significant growth potential, while being mindful of the risks associated with high expectations.
- Sell Criteria: He sells investments if a better opportunity arises, if the price runs significantly ahead of value, or if the investment thesis is broken.
- Circle of Competence: Grieve stresses the importance of understanding one’s circle of competence and being willing to learn and expand it without taking undue risks.
- Geographic Focus: While he has a home bias towards Canadian investments, Grieve remains open to global opportunities, except for China, due to past experiences.
- Behavioral Edge: He focuses on maintaining a rational mindset and avoiding common psychological pitfalls, such as confirmation bias and the sunk cost fallacy, to enhance investment decision-making.
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How Peter Lynch Became The Greatest Fund Manager Of All Time | TCAF 211
- Peter Lynch’s Legacy: Peter Lynch, renowned for his tenure at Fidelity’s Mellin Fund, achieved a 29.2% annual return, more than doubling the S&P 500 index, and grew the fund’s assets from $18 million to $14 billion.
- Investment Philosophy: Lynch emphasizes the importance of understanding what you own, suggesting that knowing the companies behind stocks helps investors withstand market volatility.
- Market Insights: He advises against trying to time the market or predict economic downturns, noting that more money is lost preparing for corrections than in the corrections themselves.
- Stock Selection Strategy: Lynch highlights the value of investing in companies with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, often found in overlooked or undervalued sectors.
- Economic Perspective: He remains optimistic about the U.S. economy, citing its resilience and adaptability, and believes automation will continue to drive job creation despite technological disruptions.
- AI and Technology: While Lynch does not personally invest in AI stocks, he acknowledges the transformative potential of technology and the importance of staying informed about industry changes.
- Investment Advice: Lynch encourages individual investors to conduct thorough research and maintain a long-term perspective, suggesting that even non-professionals can succeed with diligence and understanding.
- Market Evolution: He notes the reduction in publicly traded companies from 8,000 to 3,000 over the years, highlighting the impact of private equity and market consolidation on investment opportunities.
Regal Rexnord Corp (RRX)
Pitch Summary: Long industrial compounder pivoting from legacy motors to higher-margin automation/powertrain solutions across AMC, IPS and PES; Altra deal lifted mix toward automation, portfolio pruning completed, and deleveraging is on track. Near-term macro is troughy, but as NA industrial activity/automation recover, RRX should show faster organic growth, margin expansion, and a re-rate; upside optionality […]
Hurco Companies, Inc. (HURC)
Pitch Summary: Hurco is a cash-rich, small-cap CNC machine tool maker trading at ~0.56x tangible book (~$31/sh) and ~4x 10-yr average EBITDA, likely near a cyclical trough after three tough years for global metalworking capex. The company has no debt (~$6.75/sh cash), a diversified international footprint, and ~20% recurring parts/service, with incremental growth vectors in […]
Symbotic Inc (SYM)
Pitch Summary: Paywalled (Symbotic is one of many supply chain automation companies that contracts with big distribution centers to automate operations like packing, unpacking, moving, and storing products. Recent executive departures, a nosebleed valuation, the company’s reliance on a handful of customers, and a looming lock-up are among an assortment of issues that should concern […]
Presto Automation Inc (PRST)
Pitch Summary: The company will fail within 12 months without additional financing; expected to lean into an AI hype to raise cash from unsuspecting retail investors; BSD Analysis: Presto’s AI ordering tools face weak adoption, poor unit economics, and scalability concerns. Despite labor-saving claims, conversions to scale have lagged. Cash burn and reliance on financing […]
SmartRent Inc (SMRT)
Pitch Summary: Structurally unprofitable business (inexistence of any proprietary products, barely breakeven at a gross profit); expected value is $0 per share. Update 3/2 – Follow up report: artificially low cost; Update 5/12 – Accounting irregularities and tricks; BSD Analysis: SmartRent provides property management and smart-home automation solutions for multifamily housing. The short thesis highlights […]
Symbotic Inc (SYM)
Pitch Summary: The technology is not cutting-edge with no innovation and competitiveness; implemented only four systems since 2007; low retention ratio in the management team; inexperienced to fulfill WMT’s contract obligations; Update 8/23 – NINGI tweeted that insiders sold $1.4bil of shares. BSD Analysis: Symbotic builds warehouse automation systems, with Walmart as both customer and […]
Symbotic Inc (SYM)
Pitch Summary: The business is at its peak; SYM will be short of revenue expectations; overvalued (EV/EBITDA 52x vs. peer of 14x); the business model is simply a ‘contract manufacturer’ vs. the claimed AI-powered robotic technology; BSD Analysis: (Repeat entry — Symbotic). Shorts emphasize valuation risk, customer concentration (Walmart), and lumpy revenue recognition. While automation […]
Symbotic Inc (SYM)
Pitch Summary: C&S is reportedly buying divested stores from Albertsons and Kroger with support from Softbank but the investment raised questions, why a tech VC is in grocery stores – the answer could be that Softbank is using C&S to pump SYM; overlapping executives between SYM and C&S; Update 11/27/24 – SYM announced that it […]
Zeta Global Holdings Corp (ZETA)
Pitch Summary: Round-tripping scheme (signing ‘two-way’ contracts for flatter revenues); quietly spun its own network of consent farms, which brings almost the entirety of the company’s growth; potentially devastating regulatory action; BSD Analysis: Zeta Global positions itself as an AI-driven marketing automation platform, but skeptics see structural disadvantages versus Salesforce, Adobe, and HubSpot. Growth is […]
Zeta Global Holdings Corp (ZETA)
Pitch Summary: The company serves as a middleman for collecting data; a heavy reliance on a single, third-party data collection tool; off-the-books employees in India; email marketing positions are being marketed as software job; Update 10/16/24 – Follow-up report. Update 10/25/24 – Follow-up report: Disclosed manipulated revenue guidance. Update 11/22/24 – Management lying on their […]
