International Paper Co. (IP)
Pitch Summary: A short predicated on “rock star CEO” hype outrunning commodity reality. New CEO Andy Silvernail (ex-IDEX/Danaher playbook) has guided to aggressive 2027 targets (EBITDA ex-pulp $5.5–6.0B; big FCF ramp) while promising “above-market” volume growth and price increases. The author argues these clash with 30 years of flat U.S. corrugated box demand, IP’s role […]
NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)
Pitch Summary: The setup resembles the late-1990s telecom/Internet buildout, with AI “infrastructure” spend driven by non-economic KPIs (model scores, FLOPS) rather than ROI. Reflexivity has turned: weaker capital markets, tariff noise, and “DeepSeek-style” efficiency gains risk flipping the GPU cycle from shortage to surplus. A large slice of recent demand came from loss-making model labs […]
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL)
Pitch Summary: Sterling rode an extraordinary, AI/data-center and public-spend super-cycle to record growth and margins, but that purple patch looks set to normalize. Mix has pivoted toward data-center site work (now 60%+ of E-Infra backlog), a customer set that increasingly optimizes for cost as schedules stabilize. Backlog growth has slowed and bookings decelerated sequentially, while […]
Paychex Inc. (PAYX)
Pitch Summary: Paychex looks priced for perfection just as pandemic-era tailwinds fade and competitive pressure builds—ADP’s push down-market, moderating new-business formation, and waning rate-driven float income set up multiple compression and earnings risk. BSD Analysis: Paychex (SMB payroll/HR/benefits) benefited post-COVID from unusually strong new business formation, tight labor markets, and one-offs like PPP/ERTC, enabling outsized […]
