Civeo Corp (CVEO)
Pitch Summary: Civeo is a deeply undervalued provider of workforce accommodation and hospitality services in Australia and Canada, trading at just ~3.7x 2025E EBITDA. The company generates strong free cash flow (~$43M annually, pro forma for its Australian acquisition) with limited capex needs and multiple self-help levers to drive shareholder value. Its Australian operations—anchored in […]
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE)
Pitch Summary: Canadian E&P with low leverage, deep tax shields, and major upside from asset sales; trades at ~$22K/flowing boe or $30K precedent deals. BSD Analysis: Obsidian has transformed since 2019 under CEO (and FrontFour PM) Stephen Loukas—reducing debt, selling non-core assets, and focusing on Peace River heavy oil and Willesden Green light oil. The […]
Contrarian Bets: Brian Laks on Lithium, Coal & Uranium
- Contrarian Investment Strategy: Brian Laks emphasizes the importance of being a contrarian investor, focusing on sectors that are currently out of favor but have strong long-term fundamentals, such as coal and lithium.
- Commodity Focus: Laks discusses the potential in commodities like uranium, copper, and tin, highlighting the importance of identifying large, low-cost sources of supply and the timing of market cycles.
- Uranium Market Insights: The uranium market has shifted from a contrarian play to a more mainstream investment, with significant price increases and market enthusiasm, suggesting a need for more selective investment strategies.
- Portfolio Strategy: Old West Management employs a diversified approach, investing in a mix of currently profitable sectors and those expected to perform well in the future, ensuring a balanced risk-reward profile.
- Market Dynamics: The discussion touches on the impact of geopolitical risks and jurisdictional challenges on investments, particularly in regions like Argentina and the Congo, affecting metals such as tin and copper.
- Energy Sector View: Despite a background in energy, Laks prefers mining investments due to the longer lead times for supply adjustments, which can lead to more significant price spikes and investment opportunities.
- Future Outlook: The conversation concludes with a focus on identifying future investment opportunities in sectors currently experiencing negative sentiment but with potential for long-term growth, such as lithium and coal.
Montrose Environmental Group I (MEG)
Pitch Summary: Zero to negative organic growth; EBITDA number is full of irregular items; horrendous revenue quality; the Audit Committee is chaired by a person who became HBS’ case study of bad corporate governance; high stock-based compensation to manipulate free cash flows; overleveraged (estimated x4.8 EBITDA vs. claimed x2.4) BSD Analysis: MEG Energy is an […]
