| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 41.4% |
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, BRK-A, COST, DECK, DG, DLTR, FIVE, GOOGL, KGC, KHC, KO, META, MSFT, NEM, NVDA, TSLA | Artificial Intelligence, Capital discipline, Energy Infrastructure, Intrinsic Value, Valuation risk | - | |
| Oct 23 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AHT.L, BF-A, BRK-A, CFR.SW, CMCSA, DASH, GOOGL, HEIA.AS, JPM, MA, MLM, NFLX, NSRGY, NVDA, PM, RI.PA, UBER | AI, Brand Loyalty, Concentration, Consensus, global, long-term, Value Investing |
GOOG PM NESN SW |
Semper Vic Partners achieved 19.7% nine-month returns through concentrated positioning in businesses with strong competitive advantages and brand loyalty. Key contributors included AI infrastructure plays and companies facing negative consensus like luxury goods and beverage alcohol. The strategy emphasizes avoiding comfortable consensus while maintaining conviction in businesses with capacity to reinvest for long-term value creation despite near-term volatility. |
| Feb 21 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, BRK-A, COST, DG, DLTR, FIVE, GOOGL, MCO, META, MSFT, NVDA, SBUX, TSLA | AI, Berkshire, Buybacks, Concentration, inflation, Secular Peak, value | - | Semper Augustus maintains a concentrated value portfolio trading at 10.3x earnings versus the S&P 500's 25.2x multiple. Manager warns current market concentration in Magnificent Seven stocks mirrors historical secular peaks. Portfolio positioned defensively with significant Berkshire Hathaway allocation and retail exposure, expecting superior returns as overvaluation corrects and value opportunities emerge. |
| Feb 23 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, AXP, BAC, BRK-A, COST, CVX, DG, GOOGL, KHC, KO, META, MSFT, NVDA, OXY, TSLA | Berkshire, Buybacks, China, energy, inflation, value | - | Semper Augustus returned 10.8% in 2023 with portfolio trading at 10.3x earnings versus S&P's 22.3x. Manager emphasizes value investing with Berkshire as largest holding. Warns of China's demographic collapse and debt crisis as major global risk. Avoids overvalued Magnificent Seven tech stocks. Portfolio positioned defensively with quality businesses at attractive valuations. |
| Feb 23 2023 | 2022 Q4 | COST CN, OLN, V | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager views AI as a classic capital cycle bubble comparable to past infrastructure manias. Sees massive capital spending with improbable returns, creative financing, and circular dynamics among hyperscalers. Expects this to end badly for early investors despite potential societal benefits. |
Data Centers Capital Cycle Hyperscalers Infrastructure Bubble |
ValuePortfolio remains undervalued at 12.2x earnings versus S&P 500's 26x multiple. Active value management through trimming expensive positions and adding to undervalued names continues to drive outperformance. Emphasizes dual margins of safety in price and business quality. |
Undervalued Earnings Yield Active Management Margin of Safety | |
GoldGold mining companies Kinross and Newmont delivered exceptional returns with gold reaching $5,000 per ounce. Mining profitability surged with net margins reaching 30%+ levels. Manager constructive on long-term gold price outlook for various unfortunate reasons. |
Gold Miners Commodity Cycle Inflation Hedge | |
Dollar StoresIncreased allocation to retailers, particularly dollar stores, from 17.1% to 25.9% of portfolio. Added to Five Below near yearly lows during tariff volatility. These retailers earn good returns on capital despite lower profit margins compared to tech companies. |
Retail Consumer Staples Tariff Impact | |
Berkshire HathawayWarren Buffett stepped down as CEO at year-end 2025, with Greg Abel taking over. Manager provides extensive analysis of Berkshire's succession, valuation, and six decades of compounding. Views the transition positively with strong management team in place. |
Succession Compounding Capital Allocation Insurance | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI represents a transformative investment opportunity requiring massive capital deployment in semiconductors, data centers, and infrastructure. The manager discusses NVIDIA's central role in AI development through GPU technology, Google's AI capabilities, and the broader ecosystem of companies benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout including construction materials and equipment providers. |
NVIDIA GPU Data Centers Infrastructure Google |
LuxuryLuxury goods industry faces negative consensus but Richemont demonstrates resilience through brand loyalty and omnichannel investments. The manager emphasizes the power of price inelastic demand for luxury brands and Richemont's long-term positioning despite industry-wide weakness. |
Richemont Brand Loyalty Omnichannel Hard Luxury | |
AlcoholBeverage alcohol industry confronts significant headwinds from health concerns, regulatory challenges, and changing consumer behavior post-COVID. Despite negative consensus, the manager believes brands like Heineken will recover through innovation, global expansion, and the eventual return of social consumption patterns. |
Heineken Brand Loyalty Global Expansion Innovation | |
TobaccoPhilip Morris demonstrates successful innovation through heat-not-burn products like IQOS, representing a pathway for smokers to quit traditional cigarettes. The company invested $14 billion over 17 years to develop reduced-risk products, showing management's capacity to suffer for long-term value creation. |
Philip Morris IQOS Heat-not-burn Innovation | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor industry characterized by extreme volatility with potential for 90% declines during product cycles. NVIDIA exemplifies both the massive upside potential and downside risks, requiring investors with capacity to withstand cyclical downturns while benefiting from long-term AI-driven demand. |
NVIDIA Cyclical Volatility AI Demand | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValuePortfolio trades at 10.3x earnings versus S&P 500's 25.2x multiple, representing significant undervaluation. Manager emphasizes buying businesses at discounts to intrinsic value with dual margins of safety in price and business quality. |
Undervaluation Intrinsic Value Discount Margin of Safety Price to Earnings |
InflationDiscusses impact of inflation on corporate margins, maintenance capital expenditures exceeding depreciation, and how inflation affects different business models. Notes inflation's role in driving sales growth but compressing margins. |
Margin Compression Cost Inflation Pricing Power Real Returns Maintenance Capex | |
BuybacksExtensive analysis of share repurchases across S&P 500 companies, noting they spend two-thirds of profits on buybacks yet share count unchanged due to executive dilution. Contrasts with Berkshire's disciplined approach to repurchases. |
Share Repurchases Capital Allocation Executive Dilution Share Count Return on Capital | |
ConcentrationDetailed examination of market concentration in Magnificent Seven stocks comprising 35% of S&P 500. Compares current concentration to historical bubbles and discusses risks of passive flows amplifying concentration. |
Market Concentration Magnificent Seven Passive Flows Index Weighting Bubble Risk | |
AIAnalysis of artificial intelligence investment boom, comparing to historical technology bubbles. Discusses massive capital expenditures by tech companies and questions sustainability of current AI valuations and margins. |
Technology Bubble Capital Expenditure Productivity Valuation Growth Sustainability | |
| 2023 Q4 |
ValuePortfolio trades at 10.3x earnings versus S&P 500's 22.3x multiple, representing significant undervaluation. Manager emphasizes buying quality businesses at discounts to intrinsic value as core investment philosophy. |
undervaluation intrinsic value earnings multiple discount margin of safety |
InflationDiscusses impact of inflation on corporate margins, noting S&P 500 profit margins compressed from 13.3% record in 2021 to 11.4% in 2023 due to inflationary pressures on costs. |
margin compression cost pressures pricing power profit margins inflationary environment | |
ChinaExtensive analysis of China's demographic collapse and debt crisis, describing population decline and overleveraged property sector as major global risk factors for coming decades. |
demographic decline debt crisis property bubble population collapse global risk | |
EnergyPortfolio has sizable energy investments with focus on underinvestment in oil and gas capacity since 2015 creating potential scarcities and opportunities in the sector. |
underinvestment capacity constraints oil and gas energy transition commodity cycles | |
BuybacksCriticizes S&P 500 companies for inefficient share repurchases at high prices, contrasting with Berkshire's disciplined approach to buying back shares only when undervalued. |
share repurchases capital allocation price discipline shareholder returns management efficiency |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher P. Bloomstran | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cloud, Moonshots, Search | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher P. Bloomstran | PM | Philip Morris International Inc. | Consumer Staples | Tobacco | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, Nicotine, Regulation, Reinvestment, Smokefree | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher P. Bloomstran | NESN SW | Nestlé S.A. | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods & Meats | Bull | Swiss Exchange | buybacks, Consumerstaples, dividend, Execution, Glp1, innovation, margin, Marketing, Nutrition, turnaround | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BRK-A | Warren Buffett announced on May 3, 2025, at the close of Berkshire's Annual General Meeting that he was stepping down at the end of the year. As of January 1, 2026, the company is now in the able hands of Greg Abel. Greg has overseen all of Berkshire's non-insurance businesses since 2018. Warren will stay on as Chairman indefinitely and will be in the office daily. The Berkshire section continues with thoughts on succession and concludes by recapping the year and the businesses of Berkshire. Our large investment in Berkshire skews the payout lower, as it pays no dividend. Berkshire Hathaway retains all profit and conservatively (and very predictably) earns on average 11-12% on equity capital. |
| KGC | Another key driver to the portfolio margin increase was the huge returns enjoyed by our two gold mining companies, Kinross Gold and Newmont. Despite materially trimming Kinross during the year as the price rose 204% to finance the purchase of other positions, the surge in the gold price is driving mining profitability through the roof. Both companies have all-in-sustaining costs to mine and to replace reserves around $1,600 per ounce. With gold reaching $5,000 per ounce, cash profits are robust. Kinross' net margin surged from 8% in 2022 to likely 33% at present. The balance sheets are in terrific shape with an unbelievable net cash position. Returns on conservatively accounted for equity and capital are in the mid-20% range. |
| NEM | Another key driver to the portfolio margin increase was the huge returns enjoyed by our two gold mining companies, Kinross Gold and Newmont. We are constructive on the long-term price of gold (for myriad unfortunate reasons). Both companies have all-in-sustaining costs to mine and to replace reserves around $1,600 per ounce. With gold reaching $5,000 per ounce, cash profits are robust. Newmont's net margin grew over the same interval from 12% to 32%. The balance sheets are in terrific shape with an unbelievable net cash position. Returns on conservatively accounted for equity and capital are in the mid-20% range. |
| DG | Our combined investment in three retailers, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below, totaled 17.1% of our invested capital heading into 2025 and closed the year totaling 25.9% of our holdings. The shares of the trio of dollar stores, including Five Below, saw substantial price gains, thus increasing our allocation to retailers even more. Our concentration in our handful of retailers, predominantly dollar stores, contributed meaningfully to our 41.9% net total return in 2025. Our retailers earn very good returns on capital but have scant profit margins relative to the margins at the Magnificent Seven. |
| DLTR | Our combined investment in three retailers, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below, totaled 17.1% of our invested capital heading into 2025 and closed the year totaling 25.9% of our holdings. The shares of the trio of dollar stores, including Five Below, saw substantial price gains, thus increasing our allocation to retailers even more. Our concentration in our handful of retailers, predominantly dollar stores, contributed meaningfully to our 41.9% net total return in 2025. Our retailers earn very good returns on capital but have scant profit margins relative to the margins at the Magnificent Seven. |
| FIVE | We added one small new position in Five Below to the portfolio in 2024, materially adding to it at lower prices when the White House launched its tariff war in early 2025. Tariff announcements and anxiety throughout the year created tremendous volatility. Our combined investment in three retailers, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below, totaled 17.1% of our invested capital heading into 2025 and closed the year totaling 25.9% of our holdings. We added to the Five Below position near the yearly lows. The shares of the trio of dollar stores, including Five Below, saw substantial price gains, thus increasing our allocation to retailers even more. |
| DECK | We likewise added another new company, Deckers Outdoor, to the portfolio in 2025, gradually at first and then suddenly. The company's shares were the fourth worst performing S&P 500 component of the year, down 49%. Buying initially near the low, and then meaningfully nearly at the low, our sizable investment earned us a positive 5.6% for the year. Despite the investment gains of the retailers, the portfolio profit margin increased from 8.5% to 9.5% during 2025. First, our new sizable investment in Deckers Outdoor brought a company with a high-teens margin into the portfolio. |
| KO | A Tale of Two Stocks discusses Got Coke? and Won't Get Coked Again – A Bite of the Apple sections are mentioned in the contents, indicating discussion of Coca-Cola and Apple as comparative investments within the Berkshire portfolio context. |
| AAPL | Two of the seven, Apple and Amazon, returned only single digits in 2025 and fully five of the seven lagged the S&P 500's 17.9% total return. Apple returned only 9.1% in 2025. For the four years after the defined 2021 secular peak, Apple earned 11.8% annually. Apple was mentioned in the Won't Get Coked Again – A Bite of the Apple section, comparing it to Coca-Cola as investments. Three others trailed the S&P 500 – Apple, Amazon and Tesla over the four-year period. |
| NVDA | Runner-up NVIDIA lagged Google, earning 'only' 38.9% for the year, but its sprint over the past four years has been nothing shy of breathtaking. A 58.7% annual return over four years is 534.8% cumulatively. That's earning 6.35x in four years, more than sextupling its market capitalization from roughly $700 billion to $4.5 trillion. NVIDIA's market cap was merely $100 billion seven years ago, or roughly 50 basis points of a then $21 trillion S&P 500. Fast forward and the additional $4.4 trillion of value perches the company atop the $58.4 trillion index, with a record 7.7% share of the total. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has a 0.2% weighting in Nvidia while the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index had a 7.7% weighting on December 31, 2025. |
| MSFT | Microsoft was slightly ahead of the index for the four years, earning 10.4% annually versus the S&P 500's 11.1%. Microsoft returned 15.6% in 2025. Over the four years subsequent to the defined secular peak, Microsoft trailed the S&P 500 overall but was slightly ahead for the full period. |
| GOOGL | Carrying the weight, Google led the bunch in 2025 with a 66.0% total return. For the four years after the defined 2021 secular peak, Google earned 21.5% annually. The heavy lifting was largely done by three of the seven – Nvidia, Google and Meta over the four-year period. Google was one of only two of the Magnificent Seven that beat the S&P 500's 17.9% total return in 2025. |
| AMZN | Two of the seven, Apple and Amazon, returned only single digits in 2025. Amazon returned only 5.2% in 2025. For the four years after the defined 2021 secular peak, Amazon earned 8.5% annually. Three others trailed the S&P 500 – Apple, Amazon and Tesla over the four-year period. |
| META | For the four years after the defined 2021 secular peak, Meta Platforms/Facebook earned 18.6% annually. Meta returned 13.1% in 2025. The heavy lifting was largely done by three of the seven – Nvidia, Google and Meta over the four-year period. |
| TSLA | Tesla returned 11.4% in 2025. For the four years after the defined 2021 secular peak, Tesla earned 6.3% annually. Three others trailed the S&P 500 – Apple, Amazon and Tesla over the four-year period. |
| COST | Costco, as an example, has seen its net profit margin rise from 1.7% to 2.9% over the last twenty years. Sounds low, except the absolute level of margin does not indicate the degree of profitability. The business, despite an apparent low margin, earns over 20% returns on its capital. If we were to again purchase Costco for the portfolio, one of our favorite companies, at its prevailing 53x multiple to earnings, we'd see a further reduction in the portfolio margin as Costco earns a lower net margin than the current retailers in the portfolio. Of course, we'd be paying a sky-high price for a great company, and likely demonstrate the maxim that even the wonderful business at the wrong price can make for a terrible investment. |
| KHC | The letter mentions a section 'On Kraft Heinz' in the Berkshire Hathaway analysis, indicating discussion of this holding within Berkshire's stock portfolio. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
