| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 30.0% |
Niels Jensen outlines three major concerns for 2026 that could significantly impact portfolio returns. First, he worries Trump will replace Jerome Powell with an ultra-dovish Fed Chair who will cut rates for political reasons, potentially causing yield curve steepening and renewed inflation. Second, he sees an AI bubble ready to burst, noting the ten largest US stocks now exceed the combined GDP of major economies, with a selloff potentially more widespread than the 2000 dotcom crash. Third, he fears political leaders will implement irrational climate policies as temperatures rise, though this creates opportunities in green metals. The portfolio delivered 30% net returns in 2025 despite reducing equity risk early in the year. For 2026, Jensen expects index-linked bonds to outperform nominal bonds, Rest of World equities to outperform US equities, and commodities to outperform equities. He believes markets are in late stage 2 of a four-stage bubble cycle, with risks above average but not yet extreme. The strategy emphasizes caution with overweight positions in non-US equities and commodities while regularly trimming gold allocations.
The manager identifies three primary risks for 2026: Trump replacing Powell with an uber-dove leading to inflation, an AI bubble burst causing widespread market damage, and irrational climate policies driven by political leaders, while positioning defensively with overweight commodities and non-US equities.
The manager expects index-linked bonds to outperform nominal bonds, Rest of World equities to outperform US equities, and commodities to outperform equities in 2026. He believes equity risks are above average but not yet at extreme levels, positioning the market in late stage 2 of a four-stage bubble cycle.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1 2025 | 2025 Q4 | - | Carbon, Climate, energy, innovation, policy | - | The letter examines climate change through an investment lens, challenging consensus views and focusing on economic impacts, incentives, and technological solutions. It highlights opportunities arising from adaptation, energy efficiency, and innovations such as direct air capture that could transform carbon from a liability into an asset. Climate is framed as a long-term thematic driver shaping capital allocation across energy, infrastructure, and industrial systems. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Agriculture, Climate Change, energy, insurance, policy | - | The letter focuses on navigating a late-cycle macro environment marked by slowing growth, easing monetary policy, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. It emphasizes the importance of flexibility across asset classes as inflation, rates, and fiscal dynamics evolve unevenly across regions. Macro conditions are viewed as a primary driver of dispersion, creating opportunities for active allocation and risk management. |
| Jul 1 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Concentration, diversification, Market Leadership, megacaps, valuation | - | The letter focuses on extreme market concentration, highlighting how the Magnificent 7 have come to dominate index returns and market capitalization. Management argues that rising concentration and elevated multiples historically lead to lower long-term equity returns and higher correction risk. As a result, the strategy deliberately underweights US megacap technology in favor of diversified global and thematic exposures aligned with future growth rather than past winners. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 2 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 2 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 3 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 28 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| May 12 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| May 9 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| May 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
Climate |
|
| 2025 Q2 |
ConcentrationFive companies now represent roughly 30% of the S&P 500's market cap. The top 10 exceed 40%—the highest concentration in 50 years. Nearly $340 billion flowed into U.S. deals, yet it was packed into the fewest deals of the decade, with nearly half the capital concentrated in a few dozen deals over $500 million. |
Market Capital Risk Deals Venture |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
