| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Alpine Capital views the AI buildout as a genuine, defensible long-term investment cycle rather than a bubble, with hyperscaler capex rising from $416 billion in 2025 toward $1 trillion by 2028. Following June's sharp selloff in Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon on ROI concerns, the manager rotated capital from semiconductors into hyperscalers, viewing them as attractively priced with reinforced moats and multiple revenue streams. The firm increased Microsoft to overweight and initiated Oracle positions, seeing asymmetric opportunity at current valuations. While acknowledging near-term headwinds including the new Fed chair transition pattern and midterm election volatility, Alpine maintains a neutral Q3 outlook with the economy remaining strong. The defining feature of the current cycle is extreme single-stock dispersion, with volatility at 12-month highs creating constant opportunities and traps. The manager emphasizes discipline over short-term trading, focusing on companies with solid fundamentals while rates trend structurally lower over the medium term given unsustainable 7% fiscal deficits and 120%+ projected debt-to-GDP ratios.
The AI buildout is real and defensible, not a bubble, with hyperscalers making rational long-term investments that will either solidify competitive positions or lay foundation for next decade of above-market earnings. Following June selloff, big tech hyperscalers are attractively priced with reinforced moats and multiple revenue streams, offering asymmetric risk-reward as the market works through near-term ROI concerns while AI adoption and efficiency continue accelerating.
Neutral outlook for Q3 with economy remaining strong but real short-term headwinds including historical Fed-chair transition pattern and midterm election volatility. Manager expects to respond to weakness opportunistically rather than fearfully, maintaining discipline and patience while working through individual opportunities created by extreme dispersion environment. Medium to longer-term direction for rates remains downward despite near-term uncertainty.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL | AI, Cloud, dispersion, Fed policy, Hyperscalers, semiconductors, Valuations, volatility |
ORCL MSFT |
Alpine Capital rotated from semiconductors into hyperscalers after June's AI infrastructure selloff, increasing Microsoft to overweight and initiating Oracle positions. The AI buildout is real and defensible with capex approaching $1 trillion by 2028. Big tech is attractively priced with reinforced moats following ROI concerns. Extreme single-stock dispersion creates opportunities amid neutral near-term outlook and structurally declining rate environment. |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMZN, BN, BRK-A, CRM, CWEB, F, GLXY.TO, GM, LRCX, MA, MU, SOXX, TGT, V | AI, Data centers, Dollar, growth, semiconductors, technology, Trade Policy, US Markets |
GLXY CN LRCX MU V GLXY.TO LRCX MU V |
Alpine Capital maintains aggressive technology positioning focused on AI transformation, with the Magnificent 7 investing $330.7 billion in AI infrastructure. Recent moves include adding Galaxy Digital for data center exposure and Lam Research while exiting Visa on blockchain disruption concerns. Expected Fed rate cuts should support continued technology outperformance as AI adoption accelerates across industries. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2025 Q1 | - | Cash Deployment, inflation, Manufacturing, tariffs, Trade Policy, value, volatility | - | ACR navigates tariff-induced volatility by maintaining disciplined value investing approach. Firm expects trade tensions to de-escalate due to political pressures while viewing current market declines as overdue valuation reset. Active capital deployment reduced cash to 9% as opportunities emerge. Despite tariff impacts on select holdings, overall strategy remains resilient with focus on attractive valuations over market timing. |
| Jan 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | INTC, NVDA | earnings, growth, Market, technology, valuation, value | - | ACR delivered strong fundamental returns in 2024 while warning of extreme market valuations with S&P 500 at record 42.8 cyclically adjusted P/E. The firm maintains value discipline, replacing overvalued holdings with undervalued companies to capture earnings growth while protecting against multiple contraction risk in an eventual secular bear market. |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | long-term, Market cycles, P/E Ratios, Secular Markets, value | - | Alpine Capital Research advocates a long-term value approach focused on company profits rather than market timing. With current P/E ratios at historically high levels, they accept underperformance during bull markets to position for superior returns during inevitable secular bear periods. Their strategy emphasizes owning reasonably priced companies relative to future earnings potential. |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | AI, Quality, Speculation, Valuations, value | - | ACR warns US equity markets are borrowing from the future with AI speculation driving valuations to historically dangerous levels. The firm maintains strict value discipline, avoiding speculative pricing while focusing on quality companies with durable cash flows. Despite elevated market risk, ACR's disciplined approach has historically delivered strong returns regardless of starting market conditions. |
| May 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | AI, Competence, Philosophy, Quality, technology, value | - | Alpine Capital Research maintains disciplined value investing focused on corporate profits while acknowledging AI as revolutionary but within their circle of ignorance. The manager emphasizes expanding their circle of ignorance faster than competence as protective discipline. Despite AI hype gripping markets, they plan to remain within competence circles while deploying AI tools and evaluating disruption defensively. |
| Jan 31 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | growth, Market Bubbles, Passive investing, Quality, valuation, value | - | ACR argues ownership of leading companies isn't necessary for investment success at wrong prices. The manager focuses on cheap quality across all segments, with EQR delivering 12% returns while maintaining lower valuation risk than S&P 500. Portfolio positioned in unloved international small-caps versus overvalued US large growth, expecting consistent returns while broader markets face potential lost decade. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | asset allocation, Banking, Fed policy, inflation, interest rates, value | - | ACR advocates avoiding long-term bonds at below-average rates while maintaining high equity allocations for inflation protection. Current S&P 500 valuations offer only 3% earnings yields, requiring idiosyncratic investing approaches. Regional banking stress creates credit opportunities. The firm's disciplined value approach has generated 7.7% real returns since 2000, outperforming during market extremes through careful valuation discipline and opportunistic cash deployment. |
| Apr 30 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 30 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 30 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIManager views AI buildout as real and defensible, not a bubble. Hyperscalers investing $416B in 2025 rising to $750B+ in 2026 toward $1T by 2028. AI is a deflationary force at consumer level despite short-term infrastructure inflation. Adoption accelerating and efficiency improving rapidly. |
Hyperscalers Infrastructure Capex Adoption Efficiency |
SemiconductorsSemiconductors remain structurally positive with utility-like position in AI stack over long term. Primary beneficiary of hyperscaler capex. Manager reduced exposure in Q2 to rotate into hyperscalers after pullback, viewing relative opportunity as better elsewhere despite long-term bullish view. |
AI Stack Capex Supply Chain Rotation | |
CloudHyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon) sold off in June on ROI concerns despite massive infrastructure spending. Manager views them as attractively priced with reinforced moats and multiple revenue streams. Spending defensible as either moat defense or foundation for next decade of above-market earnings. Increased exposure after pullback. |
Hyperscalers ROI Moats Valuation | |
VolatilitySingle-stock volatility climbed to 12-month high averaging 45% by quarter-end despite VIX easing lower. 170 of 500 S&P constituents ended quarter down 11% on average, with 81 names falling over 10%. Extreme dispersion is defining feature of current cycle, creating constant stream of opportunities and traps. |
Dispersion Single-Stock VIX Opportunities | |
RatesFederal deficits running at 7% of GDP with net debt projected to exceed 120% of GDP within decade creates structural pressure on Fed to avoid raising rates. Medium to longer-term direction remains downward even if near-term path uncertain. FOMC dots point to 3.80% end-2026, drifting to 3.40% by end-2028. |
Fed Deficit Debt Service Policy Path | |
EarningsQ2 earnings growth expectations for S&P 500 revised higher through the quarter. Earnings continued to come in ahead of analyst budgets. Top ten companies' earnings weight (33.7%) catching up to market-cap weight (37.9%) as fundamentals grow into price. |
Revisions Fundamentals Growth | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI is reshaping markets as a present force, not a distant promise. The Magnificent 7 companies are investing $330.7 billion in capex for 2025, primarily for AI infrastructure including data centers and advanced AI models. AI currently handles 30-50% of critical functions at companies like Salesforce, with expectations of further expansion and workforce reductions as AI-driven efficiencies are implemented. |
Data Centers Capex Workforce Efficiency Infrastructure |
SemiconductorsThe semiconductor sector presents attractive opportunities following earlier declines. The manager initiated a position in Lam Research Corporation, viewing it as a vital enabler of industry growth and akin to a modern utility. They also reallocated proceeds from Micron Technology to the iShares Semiconductor ETF to maintain diversified exposure while capitalizing on the sector's recovery. |
Equipment Fabrication Recovery Diversification Valuation | |
Trade PolicyThe US administration's abrupt announcement of broad tariffs triggered significant market turbulence in April, but President Trump's decision to pause these tariffs for 90 days catalyzed a robust market recovery. The market's ability to absorb tariff-related concerns suggests investors view these disruptions as transient, with a pragmatic resolution appearing likely as Trump's political capital on trade issues wanes. |
Tariffs Volatility Recovery Negotiations Disruption | |
Data CentersRising electricity demand driven by AI's energy needs is creating investment opportunities in utilities and related sectors. Galaxy Digital Holdings represents an asymmetric opportunity with its Helios data infrastructure facility in West Texas, which shifted from Bitcoin mining to AI use, leveraging 800MW of approved ERCOT power with an additional 1.7GW in progress to meet growing AI demand. |
Electricity Infrastructure Power Energy Capacity | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration's tariffs have created economic uncertainty and market volatility. ACR believes de-escalation is likely due to political self-preservation concerns. The firm discusses comparative advantage theory and evaluates tariff objectives including protecting national security and restoring manufacturing jobs. |
Tariffs Trade War Protectionism Manufacturing Globalization |
InflationTariffs function as a tax on imports that raise prices. ACR estimates tariff impact on inflation could be a few percentage points if overall tariff rate reaches 10% on imports and exports. The firm maintains long-term inflation estimates of 2-4%. |
Price Increases Import Costs Monetary Policy Economic Impact | |
ValueMarket declines have created a valuation adjustment that appears unrelated to tariffs. Many companies with declining stock prices had higher valuations. ACR believes a valuation reset is long overdue and their strategy relative returns are likely to benefit if this dynamic persists. |
Valuation Reset Market Correction Relative Returns Price Discovery | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueACR focuses on owning reasonably valued companies and avoiding overpaying for profits. The firm's EQR strategy demonstrates value creation through replacing overvalued companies with undervalued ones, capturing added earning power while pruning valuation risk. |
Valuation P/E Earnings Multiple Fundamental |
AIThe letter acknowledges US technological superiority and optimism about benefits from artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and quantum computing. However, it warns against overpaying for tech leaders despite their innovation potential. |
Technology Innovation Productivity Growth | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ValueManager emphasizes focusing on profits and not overpaying for them as the path to investment success. The strategy involves carefully pruning portfolios of high prices during bull markets to ensure satisfactory returns during bear markets. At historically high P/E ratios like today, their portfolios have very different characteristics than the market. |
Valuation P/E Ratios Profits Price Returns |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI exuberance continued into Q2 with financial speculation driving valuations. ACR views AI as both a financial bubble and transformative technology, similar to historical patterns with railroads, automobiles, computers, and the internet. The firm believes speculation is necessary to fund new companies and products, though they avoid sky-high prices and overly optimistic cash flow estimates. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Speculation Bubble |
ValueACR maintains strict value discipline by avoiding high valuations in speculative markets and insisting on buying companies with durable cash flows at low prices relative to those cash flows. The firm's EQR strategy has historically performed well regardless of beginning market P/E by pruning portfolios of high valuations. Current valuation data shows they have maintained this discipline despite recent market challenges. |
Valuation Cash Flows Discipline Quality | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIAI represents a revolutionary technology comparable to the Internet, with potential to impact everything from individual companies to labor markets. The manager acknowledges AI hype gripping markets since ChatGPT's release but maintains it remains within their circle of ignorance. They are planning defensively for disruption while evaluating cash flows and deploying AI tools across their firm. |
Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT Technology Disruption Productivity |
| 2023 Q4 |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in cheap quality companies across market caps and geographies. The portfolio trades at attractive valuations with price-to-value of 0.81 compared to historical average of 0.84. Focus on companies converting profits into dividends and realized gains rather than waiting for market adjustments. |
Valuation Quality Dividends Price-to-value |
QualityCore investment constraint is quality at the company and security level. Manager seeks quality merchandise marked down, following Ben Graham's principle that price is what you pay and value is what you get. Quality companies can include both growth compounders and value situations. |
Quality Ben Graham Fundamentals Business quality | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesInterest rates have ranged from over 15% in 1981 to less than 1% in 2020, with the 10-year Treasury rising to nearly 5% recently. The Fed's zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing did not stimulate growth but inflated asset prices across all major asset classes. Real yields on government debt are largely what central banks want them to be, with expectations of 1-2% real yields on long-term government debt. |
Interest Rates Fed Policy ZIRP QE Real Yields |
InflationMassive fiscal spending during the pandemic ultimately resulted in inflation rather than central bank monetary policy. The Fed's response to inflation above 2% is to raise rates, though this is a blunt tool likely to cause recession unless wielded with precision. Equities are viewed as the only potential solution to policy-inflicted negative real bond yields and serve as a long-term hedge against inflation. |
Inflation Fiscal Policy CPI Real Returns Asset Protection | |
Credit StressRegional banks made long-term loans at historically low rates while borrowing short-term, precipitating the regional banking crisis. The longer short-term rates stay high, the more likely banks, real estate investors, and private equity sponsors who invested long-term and borrowed short-term at inadequate spreads will face trouble. This imprudence is likely to provide opportunities for credit investing. |
Regional Banks Duration Risk Asset Liability Mismatch Credit Opportunities Banking Crisis | |
ValueThe S&P 500 cyclically adjusted P/E is 33, translating to a paltry 3% earnings yield and expected real return. ACR avoids investing in equities with these characteristics and focuses on identifying equity investments with different and more attractive valuation characteristics. During periods like today, idiosyncratic portfolios are essential for protecting from valuation multiple contractions. |
Valuation P/E Ratios Earnings Yield Idiosyncratic Investing Multiple Compression |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Alpine Capital | ORCL | Oracle Corporation | Software - Infrastructure | Systems Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI infrastructure, Capital Raise, cloud infrastructure, contrarian, Database Software, Enterprise software, founder-led, hyperscaler, negative free cash flow, Value | Login |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Alpine Capital | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Software - Infrastructure | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Application Layer, Commercial AI, Distribution, Enterprise software, hyperscaler, Ip Protection, LLM, Overweight, Security | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Nick Tompras | GLXY CN | Galaxy Digital Holdings, Ltd. | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | TSX | Crypto, datacenters, infrastructure, Optionality, Power | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Nick Tompras | LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, Cycles, Equipment, semiconductors | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Nick Tompras | MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bear | NASDAQ | AI, Cyclical, Discipline, Memory, valuation | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Nick Tompras | V | Visa Inc. | Financials | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bear | NYSE | disruption, Fintech, Moat, Payments, valuation | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alpine Capital Research | GLXY.TO | Galaxy Digital Holdings | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | AI infrastructure, Asymmetric, Bitcoin mining, CoreWeave Partnership, data centers, Digital Assets, Electricity, ERCOT, West Texas | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alpine Capital Research | LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Attractive Valuations, Fabrication Machinery, Modern Utility, Semiconductor Ecosystem, semiconductor equipment, Technology Enabler | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alpine Capital Research | MU | Micron Technology | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Neutral | NASDAQ | Competitive Advantage, memory semiconductors, Opportunistic Investment, profit-taking, Strong Fundamentals, Valuation Discipline | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alpine Capital Research | V | Visa Inc. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bear | NYSE | Blockchain Technology, Competitive Moats, Digital Assets Disruption, Duopolistic Control, high margins, payment processing, Valuation Derating | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MSFT | We increased Microsoft to an overweight position. It is increasingly probable, in our view, that a distinct application layer will emerge between the LLMs and end users — particularly in commercial usage, where IP protection matters, security requirements are heavy, and the security layer of raw LLMs today remains very obscure. Microsoft is uniquely positioned to own or be a central part of that application layer, as they have immense distribution leverage and this reinforces our comfort of holding it as a core position across portfolios, especially given the current valuation. |
| ORCL | In Q2 we originated positions in Oracle in certain portfolios. Oracle's price action since initiation has been disappointing. We understand the market is pricing in its negative free cash flow and probable future capital raise, but we believe the valuation is attractive and the current view on Larry Ellison (co-founder) is probabilistically asymmetric given the entry point. Oracle can slow spending if AI reverses (which we do not think will happen). |
| GOOGL | Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon were all sold aggressively as the return-on-investment question grew louder. |
| META | The current position of Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon reminds us of Meta in 2022. Investors panicked as Meta poured money into projects with no clear return; the share price cratered. Once Zuckerberg admitted defeat under extreme shareholder pressure and reversed course, the share price recovered quickly. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon were all sold aggressively as the return-on-investment question grew louder. |
| AMZN | Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon were all sold aggressively as the return-on-investment question grew louder. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
