Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 0.1% | -12.6% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 0.1% | -12.6% |
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| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, LXS GR, PSK CN, TDW | Capital Investment Cycles, deep value, free cash flow, Mean reversion, Short Selling |
BLDR TDW PSK CN FLG HCC LXS GR |
The letter highlights a portfolio positioned for re-rating as multiple holdings near the end of capital investment cycles with permanent capital impairment viewed as remote.… |
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, LXS GR, TDW | commodities, cyclicals, energy, Housing, Value Investing |
BLDR FLG LXS TDW HCC |
The letter underscores contrarian value investing in out-of-favor sectors and companies. Cyclical pessimism and short-term earnings pressure are seen as temporary rather than structural. Recovery… |
| Jul 10 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ABG, AN, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | catalysts, free cash flow, mispricing, Shorts, value | - | The commentary emphasizes deep value investing supported by identifiable catalysts over a multi-year horizon. Many holdings are priced for pessimistic scenarios despite strong asset bases… |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ABG, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | - | - | - |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ABG, ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, FLG, HCC, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Jul 9 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ARCH, BLDR, HCC, LXU, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Apr 23 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ALS CN, AN, BLDR, CEIX, PAG | - | - | - |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | ABG, ALS CN, BLDR, CEIX, POU CN, SV4 GR | - | - | - |
| Oct 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ABG, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Nov 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ABG, BLDR, BRK/A, CVEO, POU CN, SIVBQ | - | - | - |
| Nov 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Sep 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Aug 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Capital Investment Cycles |
|
Short Selling |
||
ValueBlue Tower focuses on value investing with international diversification. The manager notes that the valuation spread between cheap and expensive stocks is one of the greatest in market history, creating a favorable environment for their value-oriented approach. |
Value International Cheap Expensive Valuation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Cyclicals |
|
EnergyDiversified Energy Company provides natural gas exposure positioned for data center energy needs and LNG growth. PetroTal offers oil production exposure at significant discount to NAV despite operational challenges. Energy transition themes present across multiple holdings. |
Natural Gas Oil LNG Energy Transition | |
Housing |
||
ValueThe portfolio trades at significant discounts to the broad market, with P/E ratios 40-42% below the S&P 500. The manager believes many steady-growing companies are overlooked by markets focused on AI winners, creating opportunities in businesses with lower assumed margins and productivity that could benefit from AI adoption. |
Discount Multiples Undervalued Overlooked Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe portfolio trades at significant discounts to the broad market, with P/E ratios 40-42% below the S&P 500. The manager believes many steady-growing companies are overlooked by markets focused on AI winners, creating opportunities in businesses with lower assumed margins and productivity that could benefit from AI adoption. |
Discount Multiples Undervalued Overlooked Opportunity |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS | Lanxess AG | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | - | Chemicals, deleveraging, Free Cash Flow, Germany, restructuring, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater Inc. | Energy | Oilfield Services | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, energy, leverage, Marine, Offshore, Oilfield, Supply, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal Inc. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Capital-projects, cash flow, coal, energy, Mining, Steel, turnaround | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, Margins, Value Added | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Capital Scarcity, Free Cash Flow, Offshore energy, Supply Contraction | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | PSK CN | PrairieSky Royalty | Energy | Oil & Gas Royalties | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital-light, Energy Scarcity, inflation hedge, mineral rights, royalties | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Bank Turnaround, Management Quality, recapitalization, tangible book, valuation gap | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Materials | Metallurgical Coal | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, metallurgical coal, Steel Demand, Supply Constraint | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS GR | Lanxess | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bear | Xetra | asset monetization, Balance Sheet Risk, debt burden, execution risk, specialty chemicals | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building materials, buybacks, cash flow, construction, growth, Housing, leverage | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial Corp. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | banking, Credit, management, recovery, regional banks, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BLDR | This is the largest supplier of building materials in the United States. They sell lumber and prefabricated products such as trusses and millwork to homebuilders, often helping the builders improve efficiency. The company has been buying up industry competitors. We bought a small amount of stock in 2024 at the price of US$149 per share. I estimated this represented approximately 12 times earnings. However, lumber prices and home building activity are cyclical, and both continued to decline from elevated levels after the COVID-19 crisis. I still like the company and the investment idea. I think the company will benefit from continued industry consolidation. The stock is currently trading at US$105 which is about 17 times earnings. I believe the company's earnings could be temporarily depressed but we have not yet bought more shares. Builders FirstSource is now one of our smallest investments. |
| FLG | Flagstar Financial is the former New York Community Bank (a mashup of Flagstar Bank, New York Community Bank and assets from Signature Bank). Like our past SHORT investments in Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic, FLG had a hole in their balance sheet (from soured multifamily and office real estate vs. long-duration securities). FLG raised over $1BB in additional capital, led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. They revamped the management team and brought in a superstar CEO in Joseph Otting who successfully turned around OneWest Bank post GFC. The valuation is extremely compelling. At year-end the bank was trading at ~67% of a conservatively marked balance sheet. At these prices the downside seems minimal and could see this business up 45-120% over the next 1-3 years as it is more appropriately valued. |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal was the single largest contributor to Fund performance, followed by copper mining companies Lundin Mining and Capstone Copper. Regarding Warrior Met Coal, in our preceding shareholder letter we commented upon Warrior's progress towards the construction of a third metallurgical coal mine called Blue Creek. Very shortly after we published that letter in October 2025, Warrior unexpectedly disclosed that the company had been able to begin commercial-scale mining at Blue Creek roughly eight months ahead of schedule, resulting in an immediate positive impact on revenue and cash flow and an upgrade to 2025 production estimates. Those developments helped propel Warrior shares during this most recent quarter. Going forward, the completion of Blue Creek ultimately portends far higher coal production, much lower capital spending and a likely return to significant cash distributions to shareholders. |
| TDW | During the quarter, Tidewater, Interfor, JEOL, S4 Capital and Harbour Energy produced the five largest negative contributions to performance. As a reminder, our current oil and gas related holdings include one upstream oil and gas producer, Harbour Energy plc, and three offshore oil and gas service providers, Tidewater, Valaris and Subsea7. During the year, the Fund experienced modest losses on our investments in Harbour and Tidewater and a gain on our investment in Valaris, while Subsea7 was our only investment in this sector for which 2025 performance broadly kept pace with Fund performance. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||