| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | 13.2% | 13.2% |
Black Bear Value Fund returned 13.2% in Q1 2026 versus -4.4% for the S&P 500, demonstrating the value of their differentiated long/short approach during market weakness. The fund's core thesis centers on owning undervalued businesses with long-term tailwinds while shorting overvalued companies with deteriorating fundamentals. Key portfolio themes include housing (structural shortage benefiting builders and suppliers), energy/commodities (chronic underinvestment creating opportunities), and regional bank turnarounds. The manager maintains 89% long equity exposure and 45% short exposure, with 44% net exposure and significant cash reserves. Top holdings include Builders FirstSource, Five Point Holdings, Flagstar Financial, PrairieSky Royalty, and Tidewater. Short positions target private credit lenders, AI wannabes, technically insolvent banks, and legacy data centers. The portfolio is positioned for lumpy returns as businesses exit capital investment cycles and enter cash-generative phases. Risk factors include housing market weakness from rate/inflation pressures and consumer health deterioration affecting certain lending businesses.
Black Bear Value Partners focuses on owning businesses with significant upside and remote risks of permanent capital impairment, while shorting companies with questionable business fundamentals that have benefited from optimistic market reactions.
The manager expresses confidence that the portfolio is positioned like a coiled spring, operating from a position of strength. He anticipates making up ground quickly with lumpy returns, similar to previous periods when rationality returned after underperformance.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BLDR, FLG, FPH, PSK.TO, TDW | commodities, energy, Housing, Long/Short, private credit, Regional Banks, value |
FPH PSK.TO TDW BLDR FPH FLG PSK.TO TDW |
Black Bear delivered 13.2% returns in Q1 versus -4.4% for the S&P 500, validating their concentrated long/short value approach. The fund owns undervalued businesses in housing, energy, and regional banks while shorting overvalued private credit, AI wannabes, and legacy data centers. Portfolio positioned like a coiled spring for lumpy outperformance as value recognition accelerates. |
| Feb 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, PSK.TO, TDW | banks, Coal, energy, Housing, Shorts, turnaround, value |
BLDR TDW PSK CN FLG HCC LXS GR |
Black Bear Value Fund underperformed in 2025 but positions for strong recovery with holdings nearing capital cycle inflection points. Portfolio concentrates on undervalued housing, energy, and coal companies while shorting AI speculation and credit excess. Manager expects 50-100% upside potential as investment cycles conclude and shorts face valuation reality. |
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, LXS.DE, TDW | Banking, Chemicals, Coal, cyclicals, energy, Homebuilding, Shorts, value |
BLDR FLG LXS TDW HCC |
Black Bear Value Partners underperformed in Q3 due to short positions in overvalued AI companies while long positions in cyclical industries at trough levels showed modest gains. The fund targets homebuilding, chemicals, energy services, banking, and coal companies with structural tailwinds and significant upside potential when market conditions normalize. |
| Jul 10 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ABG, AN, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | catalysts, Concentration, free cash flow, Shorts, turnaround, value | - | Black Bear's concentrated value portfolio underperformed in Q2 due to short book headwinds but is positioned for strong recovery. Holdings trade at 9-35% free cash flow yields with hard catalysts expected in 6-18 months including mine reopenings, project completions, and strategic reviews. Manager views current discounts as temporary with significant upside as fundamentals improve. |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ABG, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | Auto Dealers, Banking, Coal, Homebuilders, Opportunistic, tariffs, value, volatility | CNR | Black Bear outperformed during Q1 volatility by positioning defensively ahead of tariff announcements. The fund owns businesses with pricing power and fortress balance sheets including auto dealers, building materials, met coal producers, and a discounted bank turnaround. Current market stress creates opportunities for patient capital to acquire quality companies at attractive valuations. |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ABG, ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, FLG, HCC, POU.TO | banks, Coal, Concentration, energy, Foreign, Housing, Long/Short, value |
ABG FLG |
Black Bear underperformed in 2024 but manager sees compelling opportunity in concentrated value portfolio. Fund owns undervalued companies completing capital cycles in coal, housing, energy, and banking while shorting overvalued names. December selloff created buying opportunity with multiple holdings offering 50-100% upside as investment cycles conclude over next 12-24 months. |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU.TO | Coal, credit, energy, Hedging, Homebuilders, rates, value |
ARCH CEIX HCC BLDR POU.TO |
Value manager maintains defensive positioning with credit shorts and asymmetric hedges, betting against market expectations of returning to 2% rates. Core holdings in metallurgical coal and homebuilders positioned for structural demand growth. Expects volatility to create opportunities as companies face refinancing historically cheap debt at higher rates. |
| Jul 9 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ARCH, BLDR, HCC, LXU, POU.TO | Buybacks, Coal, credit, cyclicals, energy, small cap, value | LXU | Black Bear Value Partners owns extremely cheap small-cap cyclicals trading at 10-25% free cash flow yields in underinvested sectors like metallurgical coal and energy. Portfolio companies have safe balance sheets and aggressive buyback programs while the fund shorts overpriced credit markets. The manager expects concentration to increase if prices decline further without fundamental changes. |
| Apr 23 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ABG, ALS.TO, AN, BLDR, CEIX, PAG | Auto Dealers, Buybacks, Coal, commodities, Concentration, energy, Homebuilders, value |
ALS.TO AN PAG |
Black Bear maintains concentrated positions in undervalued energy, auto dealer, and homebuilding companies with strong capital allocation. Key holdings like BLDR have delivered exceptional returns while management teams aggressively buy back stock. The manager sees abundant opportunities as traditional value investors have left the business, creating a clearance sale environment for patient fundamental investors. |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | ABG, ALS.TO, BLDR, CEIX, POU.TO | Auto Dealers, Coal, concentrated, energy, Homebuilders, royalties, Short Selling, value |
ABG BLDR CEIX POU.TO ALS.TO |
Black Bear returned 17.7% in 2023 through concentrated value investing in companies with pricing power including auto dealers, homebuilders, and energy producers while maintaining substantial short exposure. The fund benefits from patient capital and fundamental analysis to own great businesses at attractive valuations. Manager expects opportunities to emerge in higher rate environment requiring patience and conviction. |
| Jun 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | Document is a Dropbox file viewer page containing only web interface code and metadata. No actual Black Bear Value Partners Q3 2023 fund content is accessible for analysis. The underlying investment letter appears to be a PDF file that is not readable through this HTML wrapper. |
| Oct 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ABG, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU.TO | Auto Dealers, Coal, credit, energy, Homebuilders, Long/Short, value |
ABG BLDR CEIX POU.TO HCC |
Black Bear Value Partners is concentrated in undervalued energy, auto dealers, homebuilders and industrials while shorting overvalued securities and credit. The fund expects economic weakening where strong companies gain market share from the weak, positioning in cash-generative businesses like Asbury Group, Builders FirstSource, CONSOL Energy, Paramount Resources and Warrior Met. |
| Nov 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AAPL, ABG, BLDR, BRK-A, CVEO, POU.TO | Auto Dealers, Banking, energy, Homebuilders, Short Selling, value |
ABG BRK.A BLDR CVEO POU.TO |
Concentrated value fund maintaining conviction in energy, auto dealers, and homebuilders despite YTD underperformance. Successfully shorted Silicon Valley Bank while targeting other rate-sensitive industries. Portfolio positioned for economic weakness with strong free cash flow generators trading at attractive yields. Energy thesis driven by global supply shortages and China reopening catalyst. |
| Nov 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
HousingStructural housing shortage in the US with millennials forming households. Higher mortgage rates reduce existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales. |
Homebuilders Building Materials California Supply Shortage Mortgage |
EnergyChronic capital underinvestment in energy/commodity space left industry vulnerable to demand increases or supply reductions. Recent Iran experience brought attention to this issue requiring significant investment. |
Oil Natural Gas Underinvestment Commodities Iran | |
Metallurgical CoalSignificant underinvestment in metallurgical coal, a needed input for worldwide steel consumption particularly in Asia and India where high-grade met coal resources are limited. |
Steel Asia India Underinvestment Coal | |
Private CreditSpace has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and/or lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into the AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Credit Stress AI Data Centers LP Money Lending Standards | |
Regional BanksFlagstar has exceptional management/board ahead of the game in turning their business around. Manager is short similar companies with management teams obfuscating/ignoring issues and unhealthy balance sheets. |
Turnaround Management Balance Sheet Multifamily Office | |
| 2025 Q4 |
HousingStructural housing shortage in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply. New homebuilders capturing increasing market share as they can buy-down mortgages. Rising need as millennials form households creates long-term demand tailwinds. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Mortgage Rates Supply Shortage |
Metallurgical CoalSignificant underinvestment in coal for steel production globally, particularly needed for worldwide steel consumption in Asia and India where high-grade met coal resources are limited. Minimal worldwide resource development over the last 10 years could lead to tight supply and higher pricing. |
Steel Production Asia Supply Shortage Mining | |
EnergySignificant underinvestment in natural gas, oil and thermal coal which are necessary for world economies to function and grow. While renewables will play increasing role, the change will occur over decades not years. Lack of global investment in energy development creates opportunities. |
Oil Natural Gas Underinvestment Energy Transition | |
Regional BanksFlagstar has exceptional management ahead of the game in turning their business around. Manager contrasts this with short positions in similar companies with management teams that are obfuscating issues and have unhealthy balance sheets. |
Bank Turnaround Management Quality Balance Sheet | |
AIWhile AI will have impact on lives, still very early in lifecycle. Many businesses transforming to benefit from investor excitement with questionable business plans but intense stock promotion. Weak business fundamentals becoming more apparent should lead to stock declines. |
Valuation Business Models Hype Early Stage | |
Private CreditSpace has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Lending Valuations Risk Management | |
| 2025 Q3 |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. Homebuilders can buy-down mortgages to lower rates and accept healthy margins. Local governments beginning to loosen red tape for home construction which should help. |
Housing Mortgage Construction Supply |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal used for steel production currently experiencing compressed prices but Blue Creek mine development wrapping up by beginning of 2026. Combined assets should generate significant free cash flow with non-heroic pricing and volume assumptions once capital investment period concludes. |
Steel Mining Coal Infrastructure | |
Marine ServicesOffshore support vessels serving energy industry with strong long-term outlook for international and offshore markets. Global OSV market expected to shrink by 40% over next decade as fleets age, creating potential for large pricing moves and high utilization. |
Energy Offshore Shipping Oil | |
Specialty ChemicalsGerman specialty chemicals company focused on selling cyclical businesses and building stickier, lower capital-intensive operations. Management targeting investment grade credit rating and deleveraging while experiencing weak end-market conditions but positioned for normalized environment recovery. |
Chemicals Germany Deleveraging Industrial | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Auto DealersAuto dealerships generate strong free cash flow even in soft markets with over 50% of profits from parts and services. The businesses are priced as if there will be no growth despite scale advantages and consolidation runway with 90% of dealerships privately owned. |
Auto Dealers Parts Services Consolidation Free Cash Flow |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales by buying down mortgages to lower rates. |
Homebuilders Housing Shortage Mortgage Rates Building Materials | |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal demand projected to climb for next 25 years driven by economic development and urbanization in India and Southeast Asia. Severe lack of investment since 2014 due to ESG concerns while demand will likely outstrip supply leading to higher prices. |
Metallurgical Coal Steel Asia ESG Supply Demand | |
Regional BanksFlagstar Financial represents a turnaround story with new management team led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and CEO Joseph Otting. Conservative loan book marking and large credit reserves contrast with competitors who have taken minimal reserves. |
Regional Banks Turnaround Credit Reserves Real Estate | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTariffs will likely slow economic growth, decrease corporate confidence, increase prices and shake up supply chains. This creates opportunities for companies with pricing power, healthy capital structures, staying power, low cost advantages and capable management. The manager is repositioning the portfolio in anticipation of tariff announcements. |
Tariffs Supply Chain Pricing Power Economic Growth |
CoalMet coal demand is projected to climb for the next 25 years driven by economic development and urbanization in India and Southeast Asia. There has been severe lack of investment in met coal due to ESG concerns with investment peaking in 2014. Over the coming years demand will likely outstrip supply leading to higher prices. |
Metallurgical Coal Steel Asia ESG Supply Demand | |
Auto DealersAuto dealership model strength comes from parts and services where more than 50% of profits originate. Tariffs will increase automobile costs reducing affordability, but this may be mitigated by variable wage expenses and increased Parts & Service activity. Most dealers currently have 1-2 months used inventory and 2-3 months new inventory. |
Parts Service Inventory Affordability Variable Costs | |
HomebuildersThere is a structural shortage of housing in the USA. Higher mortgage rates reduce existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders are capturing increasing share of home sales and can buy-down mortgages to lower rates while accepting lower but healthy margins. |
Housing Shortage Mortgage Rates Market Share Buydowns | |
Regional BanksFlagstar Financial represents a turnaround story with new management led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and CEO Joseph Otting. The bank has raised over $1B in capital, reviewed loans, sold non-core assets, and taken conservative credit reserves. Trading at 67% of conservatively marked balance sheet versus similar banks at 140-160% of tangible book value. |
Turnaround Capital Raise Credit Reserves Valuation Discount | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal demand projected to climb for next 25 years driven by economic development in India and Southeast Asia. Severe underinvestment since 2014 due to ESG concerns while 60% of world's population lives in Asia where local sources are limited. |
Met Coal Steel Asia India ESG |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales by buying down mortgages. |
Housing Mortgage Construction Supply Millennials | |
Regional BanksInvesting in bank turnarounds with proactive management teams protecting shareholders versus shorting banks with management teams obfuscating issues. Focus on conservatively marked balance sheets and healthy capital positions. |
Banks Turnaround Balance Sheet Capital Management | |
EnergySignificant underinvestment in natural gas, oil and thermal coal which are necessary for world economies to function. While renewables will play increasing role, change will occur over decades not years. |
Oil Natural Gas Thermal Coal Underinvestment Renewables | |
Auto DealersRazor-razorblade model in fragmented industry where dealers capture trade-ins and parts/services relationships. Large dealer groups transitioning to omni-channel model reducing operating costs not appreciated by market. |
Auto Dealerships Parts Services Omni-channel | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RatesManager expects rates to remain higher than the post-GFC period, with 10Y treasury likely in 4-4.5% range versus current 3.8%. Maintains short positions in long-term interest rate instruments and credit, believing market is too optimistic about return to 2% rates. |
Interest Rates Credit Treasury Fed Policy Inflation |
Credit StressMaterially increased credit shorts including junk bonds. Many companies approaching refinancing of historically cheap debt with spreads at all-time tights reflecting zero concern about corporate balance sheets and impact of higher funding costs. |
Credit Spreads Corporate Debt Refinancing Junk Bonds Balance Sheets | |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal demand projected to climb for next 25 years driven by economic development in India and Southeast Asia. Severe lack of investment since 2014 due to ESG concerns while demand will likely outstrip supply leading to higher prices. |
Met Coal Steel Asia ESG Supply Demand | |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in USA with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. Aspiring homeowners may increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders. Current mortgage rates are not unusual versus history. |
Housing Construction Mortgage Rates Supply Shortage Demographics | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Metallurgical CoalARCH and Warrior are leading US producers of high-quality metallurgical coal used for steelmaking. Met coal demand is projected to climb for the next 25 years driven by economic development and urbanization in India and Southeast Asia. There has been severe lack of investment in met coal due to ESG concerns with investment peaking in 2014. |
Steel Asia ESG Export Infrastructure |
BuybacksThe companies in the portfolio are led by management teams who understand the power of buying back stock cheaply. BLDR has been using abundant free cash flow to buy in over 41% of the stock in the last 3 years. LSB is buying back both stock and debt at discounts. |
Capital Allocation Value Management Cash Flow | |
EnergyLarge exposure to energy names including royalty companies and exploration & production companies like Paramount Resources. These companies have made massive changes to their balance sheets by running with net cash or very small amounts of debt. Most operate in industries with 8+ years of underinvestment. |
Balance Sheet Cash Flow Underinvestment Cyclical | |
Credit StressThe fund is short long-term interest rate and credit instruments, focused on Investment Grade and Emerging Market credit markets. Credit spreads are at all-time tights reflecting zero concern about corporate balance sheets and the impact of lower margins and increased funding costs. Many companies are entering a period needing to refinance historically cheap debt. |
Interest Rates Refinancing Spreads Corporate Debt | |
Building MaterialsBLDR is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials focused on residential construction. The company has shifted to 50%+ value-add business since the GFC and has modest leverage. There is a structural shortage of housing in the USA with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. |
Housing Residential Value Add Shortage | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Auto DealersAuto dealers operate a razor-razorblade model in a fragmented industry, with over 50% of profits coming from parts and services. Large dealer groups have transitioned to omni-channel models reducing operating costs. The manager expects dealers to make less per car but sell more volume as prices drop. |
Auto Dealers Parts Services Omni-channel Fragmented |
HomebuildersThe US has a structural housing shortage with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. Aspiring homeowners may increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders. While the next 6-12 months could be rocky, the housing market should eventually adjust to the new normal. |
Housing Shortage Homebuilders Mortgage Rates Residential Construction | |
CoalCONSOL Energy has shifted from domestic energy coal to export-driven coal for non-power generation purposes. The company has delevered to near-zero net debt and trades at 20-25% unlevered free cash flow. Parts of the world have limited energy alternatives and will require coal supply over coming years. |
Coal Export Deleveraging Energy Alternatives | |
BuybacksMultiple portfolio companies are aggressively buying back stock with free cash flow. AutoNation bought 62% of the company coming out of COVID, and Penske bought back 17% in the last 2 years. The manager expects CONSOL to commit large amounts of free cash flow to buying cheap stock. |
Stock Buybacks Free Cash Flow Capital Allocation | |
Building MaterialsBLDR has focused on growing their value-add business which is now 40%+ of topline, moving away from cyclical lumber products with minimal pricing power. The manager believes in their pricing power and customer stickiness, expecting the business to attract a higher multiple. |
Building Materials Value-add Pricing Power Customer Stickiness | |
Gold RoyaltiesAltius Minerals operates a unique royalty structure across potash, copper, lithium, and iron ore. They spend minimal upfront capital while utilizing third-party partners for capital-intensive drilling/mining in exchange for production royalties. The royalty structure provides pure profit upside when commodity prices rise. |
Royalties Diversified Low Capital Commodity Exposure | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Auto DealersAuto dealerships operate a razor-razorblade model with over 50% of profits from parts and services. Large dealer groups have transitioned to omni-channel models reducing operating costs. While GPU margins will normalize, volume increases should offset some pressure as used car prices drop. |
Auto Dealers Parts Services Omni-channel GPU |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in the USA with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. Aspiring homeowners increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders. Value-add products now represent 40%+ of topline with structurally higher margins and pricing power. |
Homebuilders Housing Shortage Value-add Pricing Power Margins | |
CoalCONSOL Energy has shifted from domestic energy coal to export-driven producer for non-power generation purposes. Parts of the world have limited energy alternatives and will require coal supply over coming years despite negative stigma. |
Coal Export Non-power Energy Alternatives Marine Terminal | |
OilLarge investment across energy and commodity spaces due to insufficient development of energy resources to satisfy near and medium-term global needs while providing for renewable future. Paramount Resources has no debt and management owns 46% of company. |
Oil Energy Resources Exploration Production Debt-free | |
Mining ServicesAltius Minerals explores and develops mineral properties through unique royalty structure using third-party partners for capital-intensive drilling in exchange for production royalties. Assets diversified across potash, copper, lithium, and iron ore with minimal fixed costs. |
Mining Royalties Potash Copper Lithium | |
| 2023 Q2 |
EnergyManager has large investments across energy and commodity spaces, believing the world hasn't developed enough energy resources to satisfy near and medium-term needs. Positions include CONSOL Energy (coal export producer) and Paramount Resources (E&P with no debt and management owning 47%). |
Coal Oil Natural Gas Exploration & Production Energy Trading |
Auto DealersAsbury Group operates auto dealerships with over 50% of profits from parts and services. Manager expects dealers to make less per car as inventories normalize but will sell more cars, especially used vehicles as prices drop. Views it as a razor-razorblade model in fragmented industry. |
Auto Dealers Auto Aftermarket Used Autos Auto Parts Auto Retail | |
HomebuildersBuilders FirstSource is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials focused on residential construction. Manager notes structural housing shortage in USA and believes aspiring homeowners may increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders as existing owners are locked into low-rate mortgages. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Retail Building Products Construction Lumber | |
Metallurgical CoalWarrior Met produces met coal for steelmaking with 97% export-driven production and large cost advantage shipping to Europe and South America in 2 weeks versus Australian competition at 5 weeks. Manager sees wide margin of safety in current valuation with new project coming online. |
Metallurgical Coal Coal Steel Mining Services Critical Minerals | |
Credit StressManager remains short credit as spreads remain tight, expecting weakening credit fundamentals to result in additional spread widening to compensate for eventual corporate defaults as profit margins compress. |
Credit Stress Corporate Finance Defaults Credit Cards Specialty Finance | |
| 2023 Q1 |
EnergyConcentrated investments in energy have been a drag on YTD performance but the manager maintains conviction. The thesis is that insufficient energy resources have been developed to satisfy near and medium-term global needs. Paramount Resources joins Civeo in the top 5 holdings, with energy being a main investment theme. |
Oil Natural Gas Exploration & Production Energy Trading |
Auto DealersAsbury Group operates auto dealerships with over 50% of profits from parts and services. While expecting lower margins on car sales as inventories normalize, the manager sees this as a razor-razorblade model in a fragmented industry with strong free cash flow generation potential. |
Auto Dealers Auto Aftermarket Auto Parts | |
HomebuildersBuilders FirstSource is positioned for the structural housing shortage in the USA. While acknowledging near-term challenges from higher mortgage rates, the manager believes the housing market will adjust to the new normal and sees attractive free cash flow yields. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Construction | |
Credit StressThe short book targets industries that relied on low-cost funding during the low rate environment. Silicon Valley Bank's collapse exemplifies this theme, with the manager expecting bills to come due for real estate development, data centers, and financial service providers as rates remain elevated. |
Credit Stress Regional Banks Real Estate |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | coal, deleveraging, energy, Export-driven, Free Cash Flow, Non-power Generation, share repurchases | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources Ltd | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | TSX | Canada, debt-free, Energy Prices, Exploration & Production, Free Cash Flow, management ownership, Oil & Gas | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | HCC | Warrior Met Coal Inc | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Development Project, Export-driven, Logistics Advantage, metallurgical coal, NOLs, Steelmaking, Sum-of-Parts Valuation | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Automotive Group Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Automotive Retail, Dealerships, Free Cash Flow, Omni Channel, Parts and Services, Razor Razorblade Model, share repurchases | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource Inc | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, residential construction, share repurchases, Value-added products | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FPH | Five Point Holdings | Real Estate - Development | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | California, Equity, Housing shortage, Land Monetization, Master-Planned Communities, NAV discount, real estate development | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | PSK.TO | PrairieSky Royalty | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asset-light model, Canada, Commodity Exposure, dividend yield, Energy Underinvestment, Equity, Oil & Gas Royalties | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | TDW | Tidewater | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brazil, Equity, Fleet Undersupply, Free Cash Flow, Marine services, Offshore energy, Offshore support vessels | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Building Products & Equipment | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, residential construction, Value-added products | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FPH | Five Point Holdings | Real Estate - Development | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | California, Equity, Housing shortage, Land Monetization, Master-Planned Communities, NAV discount, real estate development | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Banks - Regional | Regional Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Balance sheet repair, Banking Crisis, Equity, Management Change, regional bank, tangible book value, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | PSK.TO | PrairieSky Royalty | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asset-light model, Canada, Commodity Exposure, dividend yield, Energy Underinvestment, Equity, Oil & Gas Royalties | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | TDW | Tidewater | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brazil, Equity, Fleet Undersupply, Free Cash Flow, Marine services, Offshore energy, Offshore support vessels | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Materials | Metallurgical Coal | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, metallurgical coal, Steel Demand, Supply Constraint | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS GR | Lanxess | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bear | Xetra | asset monetization, Balance Sheet Risk, debt burden, execution risk, specialty chemicals | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, Margins, Value Added | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Capital Scarcity, Free Cash Flow, Offshore energy, Supply Contraction | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | PSK CN | PrairieSky Royalty | Energy | Oil & Gas Royalties | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital-light, Energy Scarcity, inflation hedge, mineral rights, royalties | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Bank Turnaround, Management Quality, recapitalization, tangible book, valuation gap | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial Corp. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | banking, Credit, management, recovery, regional banks, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS | Lanxess AG | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | - | Chemicals, deleveraging, Free Cash Flow, Germany, restructuring, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater Inc. | Energy | Oilfield Services | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, energy, leverage, Marine, Offshore, Oilfield, Supply, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building materials, buybacks, cash flow, construction, growth, Housing, leverage | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal Inc. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Capital-projects, cash flow, coal, energy, Mining, Steel, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CNR | Core Natural Resources | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Asian Demand, ESG Underinvestment, Export Dependent, Fortress Balance Sheet, Low-cost producer, metallurgical coal, Steel Production, supply constraints | Login |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto Dealerships, consolidation, Equity, Fragmented Industry, Omni Channel, Parts & Service, recurring revenue, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | NYSE | Balance sheet repair, Conservative Reserves, Equity, Joseph Otting, regional bank, Steven Mnuchin, tangible book value, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Free Cash Flow, Homebuilders, Housing shortage, Pricing power, residential construction, Share Buybacks, Structural Transformation, Value-Add Products | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ARCH | ARCH Resources | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Asia, consolidation, ESG, India, merger, metallurgical coal, Southeast Asia, Steelmaking, Supply Constraint, urbanization | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CEIX | CONSOL Energy | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | ARCH Resources, consolidation, ESG, merger, Supply Constraint, synergies, Thermal Coal, Underinvestment | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | TSX | balance sheet strength, Canada, defensive, energy, Exploration & Production, Free Cash Flow, Growth Reinvestment, Management alignment, net cash | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Asia, consolidation, ESG, High quality, India, metallurgical coal, Southeast Asia, Steelmaking, Supply Constraint, urbanization | Login |
| Jul 9, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | LXU | LSB Industries | Materials | Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | Bull | NYSE | Agricultural, Ammonia, capacity expansion, carbon capture, Cost advantage, debt reduction, Free Cash Flow, Industrial, Low-Carbon, natural gas, Nitrogen, Share Buybacks, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | AN | AutoNation | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Automotive Retail, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Omni Channel, Parts, Razor-razorblade, Service, Share Buybacks, US | Login |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ALS.TO | Altius Minerals | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asset-light, Canada, Commodities, Copper, Iron ore, Lithium, Mining, Potash, Royalty, Value | Login |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | PAG | Penske Automotive | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Automotive Retail, Hidden Asset, Logistics, Parts, Service, Share Buybacks, Truck Dealerships, Truck Rental, UK, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Group | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Automotive Retail, Cyclical, Dealerships, free cash flow yield, Omni Channel, Parts and Service, Razor Razorblade Model, Share Buybacks, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BRK.A | Berkshire Hathaway | Financials | Multi-Sector Holdings | Bull | NYSE | Apple Hedge, capital allocation, cash position, conglomerate, investment portfolio, Operating Businesses, Sum-of-Parts Valuation, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Cyclical, free cash flow yield, Housing shortage, residential construction, Share Buybacks, transformation, Value-added products | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CVEO | Civeo | Real Estate | Specialized REITs | Bull | NYSE | Cyclical Recovery, Energy Sector, free cash flow yield, International, Mining, Remote Locations, Specialized Services, Workforce Housing | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | TSX | Canada, cash position, China Reopening, debt-free, Energy Development, free cash flow yield, management ownership, Oil & Gas E&P | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Group | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto Dealerships, Free Cash Flow, Omni Channel, Parts and Services, Razor Razorblade Model, Share Buybacks, Specialty retail | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, Pricing power, residential construction, Share Buybacks, Value-Add Products | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CEIX | CONSOL Energy | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | coal, commodity, energy, Export Markets, Free Cash Flow, Marine Terminal, metallurgical coal, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | TSX | Canada, debt-free, energy, exploration and production, Free Cash Flow, Management alignment, oil and gas | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ALS.TO | Altius Minerals | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | asset-light, Copper, Diversified Commodities, Iron ore, Lithium, Management alignment, Mining, Potash, Royalty | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BLDR | BLDR declined an additional 20% in the first quarter after a 28% decline in 2025 amidst weakness in the housing market. Fundamentally, the Company performed well last year and generated $875MM in free-cash-flow in 2025 translating to a trailing yield of ~10%. BLDR is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials with a focus on residential construction. Our long-term thesis remains intact as there is a structural shortage of housing in the USA. I have lowered my estimates for the near-term cash generation of the business but still assume normalized free-cash-flow per share to be $9-$12 per year implying a free-cash-flow yield of 10-13% with no growth priced in. |
| FPH | FPH is a real estate development company focused on creating large-scale, master-planned communities in some of the most supply-constrained and high-demand markets in California. This is a long-duration, asset-heavy investment that is driven by monetizing their land over time. Using conservative assumptions, we calculate a NAV estimate that is up to 3x higher than today's share price. As the landowners, FPH stands to benefit from any positive shift in regulation/red tape. |
| FLG | FLG increased by ~5% in Q1. Flagstar Financial is the former New York Community Bank. FLG raised over $1BB in additional capital, led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. They revamped the management team and brought in a superstar CEO in Joseph Otting who successfully turned around OneWest Bank post GFC. The turnaround is going well, and they recently reported their first profitable quarter since the new management team took over. At quarter-end the bank was trading at ~83% of a conservatively marked balance sheet. |
| PSK.TO | PSK.TO increased by ~21% in Q1 (dividend included). PSK.TO is a pure-play oil and natural gas royalty company that owns one of Canada's largest portfolios of subsurface mineral rights and royalty interests across Western Canada. We can own the business at a 5-8% yield assuming stable production and steady oil energy prices. Given the lack of global investment in energy development and potential for inflation, our ownership serves as a positive yielding long-term business investment with a call option on higher energy prices and/or needed production. |
| TDW | TDW increased by ~65% in the first quarter as investors rotated into energy and energy-adjacent stocks. Tidewater is a marine services firm that operates one of the world's largest fleets of offshore support vessels. What's striking about this industry is the lack of investment in the OSV fleet. Since the GFC, global shipyard capacity has shrunk by nearly 60%. Over the next decade, as fleets age, the global OSV market is expected to shrink by ~40%. TDW generated ~$350MM in free-cash-flow in 2025 which is a trailing ~8% FCF yield. |
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