| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 11.2% | 11.2% |
Capicraft delivered strong performance with the Global Creator returning 11.2% versus ACWI's -2.2% decline, supported by energy exposure amid geopolitical tensions. The manager had positioned for energy upside given attractive valuations and hedging properties, proving prescient when Strait of Hormuz closure created supply shock with 13 million barrels per day shut-in. Beyond immediate energy impact, the manager identified second-order effects including fertilizer and chemical shortages affecting global agriculture ahead of spring planting season. Portfolio actions included reducing equity exposure, adding hedges, and initiating positions in wheat contracts, sugar contracts, fertilizer producers, and Brazilian sugar/ethanol producers. While markets expect quick conflict resolution based on historical TACO moments, the manager remains cautiously positioned for prolonged disruption. Physical supply normalization may take months even after Strait reopens due to shipping logistics and well pressure issues. The manager emphasizes timing mismatch between market pricing and physical realities, noting that underlying supply chain adjustments take time despite market eagerness to move on.
Energy exposure provides attractive valuation, favorable capital cycle, and unique hedging capabilities amid geopolitical tensions, while supply chain disruptions create opportunities in agriculture and commodities despite market expectations of quick conflict resolution.
Manager remains cautiously positioned for potential escalation and a world that will take time to normalize, noting that markets may move on quickly but underlying adjustments take time, and the post-conflict environment is unlikely to resemble what came before.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | Agriculture, commodities, energy, Geopolitical, global, Supply Chain | - | Capicraft's energy positioning drove strong Q1 performance as geopolitical tensions created supply shock. Manager positioned beyond immediate oil impact, adding agricultural and fertilizer exposure ahead of planting season disruptions. While markets price quick resolution, physical supply normalization may take months, creating opportunity in timing mismatch between market expectations and supply chain realities. |
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | China, commodities, emerging markets, Geopolitical, global, Multi-Asset, oil, Precious Metals | - | Capicraft's multi-asset strategy delivered 32.66% in 2025 by positioning in real assets ahead of the next commodity cycle. Oil trades at historically cheap levels with supply constraints building, while gold benefits from central bank demand and geopolitical tensions. Chinese capital flows and US monetary accommodation favor emerging markets and commodities over overvalued technology stocks. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Currency, Dollar, emerging markets, gold, Precious Metals, South Africa, uranium | - | Capicraft capitalizes on a regime shift away from US dollar dominance through strategic positioning in precious metals, uranium, and emerging markets. The Global Creator fund delivered 12.15% returns while US markets struggled. Despite South African political frustrations, improving economic fundamentals support the thesis that global capital reallocation toward emerging markets and commodities has only just begun. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, ASML, COST, DIS, DOCU, GOOGL, JNJ, KO, LB, NFLX, NVDA, TPG, TSM, ZM | AI, energy, inflation, Quality, technology, US, value | LBRT | US market exceptionalism stretched despite post-election rally, with policy contradictions and rising yields threatening record valuations. Current environment resembles Nifty Fifty bubble with quality stocks at unsustainable multiples. AI opportunities lie in infrastructure service providers rather than hardware. Manager positioned in undervalued AI developers and Landbridge for data center services. Value exists outside US heavyweights. |
| Oct 17 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | China, commodities, Dollar, emerging markets, Fed policy, South Africa, value | - | Manager positions for emerging markets outperformance as Fed cuts benefit variable-rate economies while US assets remain expensive. South African recovery story playing out with Eskom improvements and political stability. Added emerging markets exposure including China while taking selective profits locally. Expects extended US underperformance as real assets and emerging markets rerate higher. |
| Jul 18 2024 | 2024 Q2 | GFI | emerging markets, gold, Hedging, inflation, real assets, South Africa, volatility | - | Capicraft sees compelling value in South African assets with rock-bottom expectations while hedging against global end-of-era risks through real assets, currency protection, and long volatility positions. The fund capitalizes on market overreactions in names like Gold Fields while positioning for potential foreign capital return to SA following improved political stability and infrastructure progress. |
| May 2 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BUR.L, F, JMAT.L, MBG.DE, MTN, NVDA, SPP.JO, SSL, TM | AI, commodities, Elections, energy, gold, inflation, Resources, South Africa | - | Capicraft delivered strong Q1 performance through global resource exposure despite South African election uncertainty. The fund maintains defensive positioning amid persistent inflation and energy constraints facing AI growth. Gold's rise reflects monetary system shifts while EV transition setbacks favor hybrid vehicles and platinum demand. Early-stage energy capital cycle supports patient resource holdings. |
| Jan 15 2024 | 2023 Q4 | BUR.L, CCJ | Elections, inflation, oil, South Africa, Stagflation, uranium, value | - | Capicraft outperformed in 2023 with 15.26% returns despite positioning against soft landing consensus. Manager expects stagflation from fiscal dominance and persistent inflation above Fed targets. Portfolio benefits from Burford Capital and Cameco winners while seeing exceptional value in deeply discounted South African equities and oil sector opportunities amid supply vulnerabilities. |
| Nov 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | BUR.L, CCO.TO | Anti-fragile, energy, Geopolitical, South Africa, special situations, uranium, value | - | After eight years of underperformance, Capicraft significantly increased South African equity exposure as many JSE companies now trade at 5x P/E ratios following R577 billion in foreign outflows. The manager pursues special situations like Zeder and RMH Holdings for value unlocking opportunities while positioning portfolios as anti-fragile through trend and volatility strategies amid rising geopolitical and financial risks. |
| Jul 17 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BBAS3.SA, BMA, CCJ, HSBK.L, RRC | Argentina, Brazil, Currency, emerging markets, energy, REITs, uranium, value |
RRC ACCOR BMA BBAS3.SA HSBK.KZ |
Capicraft delivered 6% YTD returns through emerging market focus and energy exposure, particularly uranium. Strong performance from Brazilian and Argentine banks despite political risks. Manager warns of US debt fragility and dollar weakness, favoring emerging markets between Istanbul and Jakarta. South African REITs offer deep value after sustained underinvestment. |
| Apr 14 2023 | 2023 Q1 | BUR.L | Banking Crisis, China, Defensive, energy, gold, Multi-Asset |
BUR.L IMO.TO |
Capicraft delivered solid Q1 returns while avoiding the tech rally, maintaining defensive positioning with 20% energy and 12% precious metals exposure. Banking crisis concerns drive cash holdings and emerging market bond purchases. OPEC production cuts support energy thesis with Imperial Oil offering asymmetric upside. Burford Capital's Argentina court victory provides significant gains. Patient long-term approach prioritizes capital preservation over short-term performance. |
| Jan 20 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 18 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 15 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 14 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilManager emphasizes oil exposure as both opportunity and risk, noting the Strait of Hormuz closure created supply shock with 13 million barrels per day shut-in. Oil sector supported portfolios but not pricing in current prices, with market treating spike as temporary despite physical supply disruptions that may take months to normalize. |
Oil Prices Supply Shock Geopolitical Risk Energy Security Strait of Hormuz |
AgricultureRising input costs from supply chain disruptions affecting global farmers, particularly ahead of Northern Hemisphere spring planting season. Manager added wheat and sugar contracts to portfolios, noting fertilizer and chemical product shortages through Strait of Hormuz affecting nitrate and sulphate availability for mining and agricultural processes. |
Input Costs Planting Season Supply Chain Fertilizers Chemicals | |
Geopolitical RiskConflict escalation and Strait of Hormuz closure created significant market disruption. Manager positioned for prolonged scenario rather than quick resolution, noting Iran's strategy to maintain closure long enough to inflict strategic damage despite US diplomatic efforts and market expectations of TACO moments. |
Iran Conflict Strategic Risk Diplomatic Pressure Market Timing Supply Routes | |
| 2025 Q4 |
GoldCentral banks remain primary buyers and are not price-sensitive. Average investors remain materially underexposed with major investment banks suggesting allocations up to 20%. Path of least resistance remains higher despite potential near-term corrections. |
Precious Metals Central Banks Allocation Underexposed |
OilCurrently extremely cheap in inflation-adjusted terms, cheaper only during 2020 shutdown and 2015 OPEC price war. Natural decline rate requires 4 million barrels per day of new production annually. OPEC has limited spare capacity and US rig count declining. |
Energy OPEC Supply Demand | |
Platinum Group MetalsRhodium particularly well-suited for growing hybrid vehicle market requiring catalysts at lower operating temperatures. US classified rhodium as critical mineral with $64.3 billion potential GDP impact. Still trades 150% below 2022 levels despite recovery. |
Rhodium Hybrid Vehicles Critical Minerals Catalysts | |
AITechnology giants whose valuations discount earnings growth far into the future dominate indices. AI narrative may suffer setback as higher long-term interest rates typically hurt growth stocks. Markets may rotate from these shares into cheaper old-economy stocks. |
Technology Valuations Growth Stocks Rotation | |
Emerging MarketsMany emerging markets remain relatively inexpensive despite strong 2025 performance. Weaker dollar environment and lower interest rates could continue providing tailwinds. China exporting excess capacity through dumping of cheap goods creates opportunities. |
Valuations Dollar Interest Rates China | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GoldGold performed exceptionally well as the dollar lost 25% of its value against gold. The fund was well positioned in precious metals including gold, which supported returns during market volatility. |
Gold Precious Metals Dollar Weakness Safe Haven |
UraniumSome of the fund's top performers were in the lesser-known uranium sector, contributing significantly to the 12.15% half-year return for the Global Creator fund. |
Uranium Nuclear Energy Commodities | |
DollarThe dollar lost about 10% against major currencies and 25% against gold since the start of the year. The manager views this as part of a broader regime shift away from dollar dominance and expects continued weakness. |
Dollar Currency Reserve Currency Triffin Dilemma | |
South AfricaThe manager is frustrated with South African politics and the acceleration of redistribution policies. However, several economic indicators point to an emerging upswing including improved electricity, declining interest rates, and low inflation. |
South Africa Politics Economic Recovery Interest Rates | |
Platinum Group MetalsThe fund was well positioned in PGMs which supported returns. The JSE has been supported by the PGM sector more recently, and other precious metals like silver and PGMs have already started moving in the new regime. |
Platinum Palladium PGMs Precious Metals | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIManager discusses AI productivity boom potential but notes most benefits will come later. Currently AI infrastructure is being built by hyperscalers who are pricing in high expectations while becoming more capital-intensive and commoditized. The next opportunity lies in AI developers who will build software on hyperscaler infrastructure. |
Data Centers Cloud Productivity Infrastructure Software |
EnergyEnergy suppliers positioned as big indirect winners from AI explosion due to data center power requirements. Manager invested in Landbridge which owns land in Texas Permian Basin and provides water, land and energy services to potential data center operators in West Texas. |
Oil Natural Gas Data Centers Water Infrastructure | |
ValueManager emphasizes significant value exists outside expensive US heavyweights and Magnificent 7 stocks. Current market resembles Nifty Fifty of early 1970s where quality companies traded at unsustainable multiples. Opportunities lie outside the heavyweights, outside quality factor, and outside the US. |
Quality Valuation Multiples Opportunities International | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Emerging marketsManager believes emerging markets are dirt cheap compared to expensive US assets and positioned to benefit disproportionately from Fed rate cuts due to variable rate banking systems. Added exposure to emerging markets including Chinese mainland stocks. |
China Commodities Rates Value |
CommoditiesReal assets including commodities make up very small portion of portfolios and many are very cheap, especially energy and soft commodities. Demand for commodities should pick up as emerging economies have greater propensity to consume goods. |
Energy Soft Commodities Real Assets | |
South AfricaLocal markets presented almost perfect storm with rising rates, load shedding, destructive legislation, and pension fund outflows creating total hopelessness in JSE valuations. Improvement at Eskom is real and sustainable with 200 days without load shedding. |
JSE Eskom Politics Value | |
RatesFed cut rates 50bp despite inflation above 2% target, more concerned about employment. Rate cuts will have limited effect on US economy due to fixed-rate debt but will disproportionately benefit emerging markets with variable rate systems. |
Fed Dollar Emerging markets Inflation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
GoldGoldfields adjusted production forecasts multiple times due to glitches from new South American mines and floods at Australian mines. The market heavily penalized the stock with each downward revision, sometimes falling 15% intraday on production guidance cuts. Capicraft benefited from buying during these immediate sell-offs as their expectations differed from market pricing. |
Gold Miners Production Guidance Volatility Mining |
South AfricaThe local market is attractively priced with low expectations built in. The new cabinet and potential remedial actions at Eskom and Transnet could inspire confidence and attract investors back to cheaply priced assets. Policy certainty may draw foreign and local investors despite the ANC likely not negotiating in good faith. |
Emerging Markets Political Risk Valuations Infrastructure Policy | |
InflationThe fund maintains high exposure to real assets as protection against potential sharp inflation rises. Historical parallels are drawn to post-WWI inflation when the US experienced double-digit inflation for four consecutive years and the British Pound lost 65% of purchasing power. |
Real Assets Hedging Historical Currency Protection | |
VolatilityCapicraft is long the VIX volatility index which is at exceptionally low historical levels. Market participants are unwilling to pay for risk protection, creating an opportunity similar to offering fire insurance on a burning house as described in The Big Short. |
VIX Risk Protection Hedging Complacency Opportunity | |
| 2024 Q1 |
GoldGold continues to rise despite higher bond yields due to US fiscal weakness and structural inflation. Eastern central banks and private sectors are buying gold instead of Western government bonds, representing a shift in the global monetary system. Chinese demand is so strong that gold trades $100/oz higher in Shanghai than Western markets. |
Gold Central Banks Monetary System China Inflation |
AIArtificial intelligence has been a hot investment theme with strong share price runs, but valuations now require wild imaginations. The limiting factor for AI growth is energy consumption, with ChatGPT queries requiring 10x more electricity than Google searches and AI processing projected to use 25% of US electricity supply by decade end. |
AI Energy Data Centers Nvidia Electricity | |
Energy TransitionElectric vehicle industry is experiencing a hiccup as consumers realize poor resale values and battery limitations. Mercedes-Benz and other manufacturers are reducing EV plans in favor of hybrid vehicles. Toyota argues hybrids are more efficient, with 90 hybrid vehicles saving 37 times more carbon than one EV using the same minerals. |
Electric Vehicles Hybrid Toyota Battery Carbon | |
Platinum Group MetalsHybrid vehicles use 10-15% more platinum than traditional cars, contrasting with industry expectations of sharp demand decreases. The fund owns PGM miners and recently invested in Johnson Matthey at 10x PE with 4.5% dividend yield. |
Platinum Hybrid Johnson Matthey Catalysts Automotive | |
UraniumThe fund maintains uranium investments as part of their energy sector holdings, viewing the sector as still in early stages of its capital cycle after more than a decade of under-investment and capital misallocation. |
Uranium Nuclear Energy Capital Cycle Under-investment | |
InflationStronger than expected US inflation figures led to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts from six to two. The Fed appears comfortable with inflation above 2% target during election year with $8.9 trillion debt refinancing needed. Commodity prices are flashing green with copper at 52-week highs and oil above $90/barrel. |
Inflation Fed Interest Rates Commodities Debt | |
| 2023 Q4 |
InflationManager discusses persistent inflation above Fed targets, with core and super-core inflation between 3-4%, wage inflation above 5%, and questions whether soft landing is achievable without hurting labor markets. Expects stagflation as the price for manufactured soft landing. |
Inflation Wages Stagflation Fed Labor |
OilPortfolio exposed to fossil fuels underperformed in 2023 despite strong oil demand at global peaks. Supply side surprised with Russia maintaining production, Iran exporting 1M barrels daily, and Brazil adding 600k barrels. Forecasts 1-2M barrel daily demand growth for 2024 with supply vulnerabilities. |
Oil Supply Demand Russia Iran | |
South AfricaManager sees opportunity in deeply discounted South African small and mid-cap stocks trading at extremely cheap valuations. Highlights nine companies with strong fundamentals trading at low enterprise value multiples, with some having significant cash positions providing resilience. |
South Africa Small Caps Value JSE Discount | |
UraniumCameco investment generated 89.6% returns in 2023, representing one of the portfolio's top performers alongside nuclear energy positioning. |
Uranium Nuclear Cameco Energy | |
| 2023 Q3 |
South AfricaSouth African shares have been in a bear market since 2015 with massive foreign outflows totaling R577 billion since 2019. After eight years of underperformance, many JSE companies now trade at 5x P/E ratios with earnings already reflecting local challenges. The manager sees sufficient compensation for risks and has increased South African exposure significantly. |
JSE Bear Market Foreign Outflows Value Special Situations |
Special SituationsThe manager actively searches for deep value and special situations on the JSE, particularly companies unlocking value through delistings or asset sales. Examples include Zeder with potential 43c dividends in 2024 and RMH Holdings trading at significant discounts to asset value. These situations can perform independently of the broader South African economy. |
Unlisting Asset Sales Dividends Deep Value Corporate Actions | |
GeopoliticalThe Israel-Palestine conflict and broader Middle East tensions create risks for oil markets, with potential disruption to Iranian oil exports and the Strait of Hormuz. The manager has positioned portfolios with energy assets outside the Middle East and precious metals as hedges against geopolitical instability. |
Middle East Oil Iran Strait of Hormuz War | |
EnergyThe portfolio includes oil and gas exposure providing at least 15% cash flow yields at $80 oil prices. Energy assets are held both as inflation hedges and for their attractive valuations. The manager owns energy assets outside the Middle East to avoid geopolitical concentration risk. |
Oil Gas Cash Flow Yield Inflation Hedge Valuation | |
UraniumCameco, a uranium producer, has been one of the best recent performers in the portfolio. The investment reflects exposure to nuclear energy themes and commodity cycles, though the manager notes it was not bought solely as a geopolitical hedge. |
Nuclear Commodity Cameco Energy Transition | |
| 2023 Q2 |
UraniumThe uranium market is in early stages of a contract cycle where price-insensitive nuclear plants must negotiate for limited uranium production. Western policymakers are recognizing limitations of solar and wind power while the rest of the world builds nuclear stations. The fund holds three uranium positions totaling about 7% of assets. |
Nuclear Energy Commodities Cameco |
EnergyThe fund maintains 30% exposure to the energy sector despite not owning technology stocks. Range Resources and other energy positions performed well during the quarter. The last decade's capital misallocation in global energy has created opportunities in certain sub-sectors. |
Oil Natural Gas Energy Transition Commodities | |
BrazilBrazil presents attractive opportunities despite market nervousness about leftist Lula da Silva's election. The country generates large trade surpluses, has controlled debt-to-GDP, and 3% inflation. Brazil raised rates early to combat post-Covid inflation and offers attractive valuations with Banco do Brasil trading at 3x P/E. |
Emerging Markets Banks Currency Value | |
ArgentinaGeneral elections scheduled for October 2023 show free market reformers as frontrunners. If elected, reformers could inject strong medicine into Argentina's economy, potentially making it one of the best economic growth stories of the next decade if willing to swallow bitter pills. |
Emerging Markets Politics Reform Banks | |
DollarThe US faces fragility due to high debt levels masked by temporary interest rate inelasticity and fiscal interventions. The dollar's reserve status is changing due to greater geopolitical independence, emerging market currency trading benefits, and waning US presence in international trade. A recession could severely impact the dollar. |
Currency Debt Geopolitics Reserve Currency | |
Commercial Real EstateSouth African REITs trade at deep discounts to NAV after five difficult years of de-gearing, Covid lockdowns, load-shedding, and negative rental reversions. The capital cycle suggests sustained underspending may lead to higher future returns. Many REITs offer high dividend yields while trading at significant discounts. |
REITs South Africa Value Dividends | |
| 2023 Q1 |
OilEnergy exposure represents about 20% of the Global Creator fund. OPEC announced production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day in April 2023, with oil inventories at 17-year lows. The manager sees asymmetric upside in energy positions like Imperial Oil, which could generate 13% free cash flow yield even at $60 oil. |
OPEC Production Cuts Imperial Oil Shale Inventories |
GoldGold and silver exposure represents about 12% of the fund across junior miners, physical instruments, and royalty companies. This exposure provided partnership stability during Q1 2023 when other positions disappointed. The manager maintains this as an inflation hedge and defensive positioning. |
Junior Miners Physical Gold Royalties Inflation Hedge | |
Credit StressThe US experienced one of its largest banking collapses in history with Silicon Valley Bank folding due to losses on government bond holdings as interest rates rose. Banks are employing more stringent credit criteria, which typically indicates recession ahead. The manager warns of potential deposit flight and liquidity crisis. |
Silicon Valley Bank Government Bonds Deposit Flight Liquidity Crisis | |
ChinaChina's reopening occurred more slowly than expected and Chinese demand for energy products disappointed. However, China continues to open its economy and authorities are supporting the broader economy, providing some optimism for future growth. |
Reopening Economic Support Energy Demand |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | BUR.L | Burford Capital | Financials | Specialized Finance | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Argentina Recovery, Catalyst, Court Ruling, High returns, Litigation Finance, Special situations, turnaround, Uncorrelated Returns | Login |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | IMO.TO | Imperial Oil | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asymmetric risk-reward, Canadian Energy, Defensive Energy, Energy Recovery, free cash flow yield, Integrated Oil Producer, Oil Inventories, OPEC Cuts | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | HSBK.KZ | Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC | Financials | Banks | Bull | KASE | banking, Central Asia, Equity, Frontier Markets, high dividend yield, Kazakhstan, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | LBRT | Landbridge | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, data centers, energy, Hydraulic Fracturing, land holdings, Oil & Gas, Permian Basin, royalty company, Texas, Water Rights | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | RRC | Range Resources Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Appalachian Basin, energy, Equity, natural gas, Oil & Gas Producer, Pennsylvania | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | ACCOR | Cameco Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Canada, Commodities, energy, Equity, Mining, nuclear energy, uranium | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | BMA | Banco Macro S.A. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | Argentina, banking, Emerging markets, Equity, Political Reform, South America | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | BBAS3.SA | Banco do Brasil S.A. | Financials | Banks | Bull | B3 | banking, Brazil, Currency, Emerging markets, Equity, South America, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Capicraft Investment Partners | - | RMH Holdings Limited | Financials | Diversified Financial Services | Bull | JSE | asset monetization, Atterbury, discount to NAV, holding company, property investment, South Africa, Special Situation, Value | Login |
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