| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 11% | - |
Greenhaven Road returned 11% net in Q2 2026 but remains below target performance levels. The manager is moderately adjusting portfolio construction toward lower concentration, more near-term catalysts, and greater profit-taking discipline while maintaining focus on advantaged businesses and differentiated research. The portfolio is unusually well-positioned with several top holdings facing identifiable events over the next year. Burford's protein price-fixing settlements could exceed its market cap as trials begin in 2027, yet remain largely unrecognized by analysts. Hagerty's State Farm partnership is accelerating faster than consensus expects, with potential Geico partnership emerging. Cellebrite's Genesis AI product positions it to shift from perceived AI loser to winner. Special situations at Compass Diversified, Lifecore, and AnaptysBio offer near-term resolution paths. New investments include catalyst-driven positions in CODI, LQDA, APP, and ANAB. The manager believes the portfolio backs swift and strong companies where non-consensus views will be tested within 12 months, not years, determining whether differentiated research produces exceptional returns or painful losses.
The fund backs advantaged businesses where differentiated research produces non-consensus views that diverge from sell-side coverage, focusing on situations with identifiable near-term catalysts that will validate or invalidate theses within 12 months rather than requiring multi-year patience.
The manager expects several portfolio catalysts to materialize within the next year, providing near-term validation of differentiated views. Key events include Burford protein settlements as trials approach, Hagerty operating leverage resuming with State Farm acceleration, Cellebrite Genesis revenue generation, and resolution of special situations at Compass Diversified, Lifecore, and AnaptysBio. The portfolio is positioned to demonstrate whether non-consensus views are correct without requiring years of patience. The manager acknowledges sector headwinds but believes company-specific catalysts and valuation disconnects create opportunity for strong returns if thesis validation occurs.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ANAB, APP, CODI, GSK, KKR, LFCR, LQDA, PAR, PPC, TSN | AI, Biotechnology, catalysts, insurance, Litigation Finance, small caps, special situations, value | - | Greenhaven Road is repositioning toward lower concentration and near-term catalysts while maintaining differentiated research focus. Top holdings face 12-month validation events: Burford protein settlements approaching trial, Hagerty State Farm acceleration beating consensus, Cellebrite Genesis shifting AI narrative, and special situations at Compass, Lifecore, and AnaptysBio nearing resolution. The portfolio backs advantaged businesses where non-consensus views will be tested quickly, not requiring multi-year patience. |
| Nov 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ALTG, ASTS, BUR, CLBT, HGTY, KFS, KKR, LFCR, PAR, SOC | AI, Asset Management, Concentration, private credit, software, value | - | Concentrated portfolio down 9% YTD as software and alternative asset managers face sector headwinds despite strong fundamentals. Top holdings PAR, Cellebrite, KKR, LifeCore, and Hagerty all declined while business progress continued. Manager maintains conviction in quality businesses with recurring revenue and operating leverage trading below intrinsic value, viewing current sector rotation as temporary. |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, ASTS, BUR, CLBT, GOOGL, KKR, LFCR, MCD, PAR, SOC, T, VZ | Litigation, oil, Pharmaceuticals, private equity, small caps, Space, Trade Policy, value |
SOC BUR LFCR CLBT KKR PAR ASTS |
Greenhaven Road's portfolio resembles Christmas morning with high expected value positions awaiting catalysts. Key holdings include Burford's $6B Argentina settlement exposure, LifeCore benefiting from potential drug tariffs, AST SpaceMobile's satellite technology with defense applications, and Cellebrite preparing for sale. Success depends on company execution rather than macro factors, with multiple multi-bagger opportunities despite uncertain timing. |
| May 20 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BKTI, BUR, CLBT, DHR, HGTY, KFS, KKR, LFCR, LMB, PAR, VTY.L | Alternative Assets, Onshoring, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Fund declined 12% in Q1 as tariff volatility pressured top holdings PAR, KKR, and Cellebrite. Manager used weakness to add to onshoring beneficiary Lifecore and unrelated names. Expects policy moderation from reciprocal tariffs toward more reasonable approach. Maintains conviction in small-cap fundamentals and anticipates outperformance when markets return focus to individual company prospects. |
| Feb 28 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AXON, BUR.L, CLBT, DHER.DE, HGTY, IWG.L, KKR, LFCR, MKTW, PAR, VTY.L | AI, Concentration, growth, small caps, value | - | Greenhaven Road delivered 27% returns in 2024 through concentrated small-cap investing outside the S&P 500. The fund focuses on whether companies can get there - survive and prosper to become larger and more liquid. Despite market headwinds from elevated valuations, strong portfolio fundamentals and AI integration should drive chunky returns as companies execute growth plans. |
| Nov 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BUR.L, CLBT, HGTY, KKR, LFCR, LLY, NVO, PAR, SOC, XOM | Concentration, energy, healthcare, PIPE, self-help, technology, value | - | Greenhaven Road delivered strong Q3 returns focusing on self-help opportunities where companies drive their own value creation. Key moves include PIPE investments in PAR Technology and LifeCore Biomedical at discounts, plus new oil position in Sable Offshore. The concentrated portfolio of operational turnaround stories is positioned for chunky returns as company-specific catalysts materialize. |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ALTG, BUR, CLBT, HGTY, KKR, PAR | - | - | |
| May 13 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ALTG, BUR.L, CLBT, IWG.L, JHX, KKR, LPX, PAR | Litigation Finance, private equity, real estate, SaaS, small cap, technology, value | - | Greenhaven Road returned 2% in Q1, maintaining concentrated positions in businesses with inevitable growth prospects including PAR Technology's SaaS transition, KKR's asset management expansion, and Cellebrite's law enforcement tools. Despite short-term market volatility from Fed policy and election uncertainty, the manager emphasizes patience and business fundamentals over quarterly trading, expecting long-term value realization. |
| Apr 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | APG, BUR, CLBT, IWG.L, KKR, PAR | Concentration, fundamentals, growth, long-term, small caps, technology, value | - | Greenhaven Road returned 51% in 2023 by investing in overlooked small-cap businesses with strong management teams. The concentrated portfolio includes PAR Technology winning major restaurant chains, KKR expanding into private wealth, and new position IWG transitioning to asset-light workspace partnerships. Despite macro noise and short-termism creating volatility, fundamental business progress continues building long-term value. |
| Oct 29 2023 | 2023 Q3 | APG, BUR.L, CLBT, KKR, LFCR, PAR | growth, Litigation, private equity, small caps, technology, value | - | Greenhaven Road delivered 30% YTD returns despite Q3 macro headwinds. PAR Technology's exclusive Burger King partnership validates their restaurant technology transformation, adding $25M ARR and opening doors to other Tier 1 customers. The portfolio includes high-quality businesses like KKR, Burford Capital, and Cellebrite that continue building value while trading at discounts to intrinsic worth. |
| Jul 31 2023 | 2023 Q2 | APG, APPS, BNED, BUR.L, CLAR, CLBT, ESTC, HGTY, KKR, LFCR, PAR, PAT.DE, SPHR | catalysts, growth, long-term, small caps, SPACs, value | - | Greenhaven Road returned 25% YTD through Q2 2023, focusing on small-cap value opportunities with clear improvement catalysts. Manager emphasizes patience and long-term value creation, believing time favors competitively advantaged businesses. Portfolio includes former SPACs and transformation stories like Hagerty, Lifecore, and Sphere Entertainment, positioned for multiple expansion as business fundamentals improve and market sentiment shifts. |
| Apr 28 2023 | 2023 Q1 | APG, BNED, BUR, CLBT, KKR, LFCR, PAR, SYY | durability, small caps, special situations, technology, value | - | Small-cap value manager returned 17% in Q1 focusing on durable businesses with low churn and strong balance sheets. Portfolio includes profitable SaaS transitions (PAR), permanent capital structures (KKR), and special situations with asymmetric upside (Lifecore CDMO, Barnes & Noble transformation). Expects recession but confident in portfolio durability and long-term compounding potential. |
| Jan 31 2023 | 2022 Q4 | APG, CLAR, CLBT, ESTC, KKR, MGNT, PAR, PAT GR | - | - | |
| Nov 30 2022 | 2022 Q3 | APG, APPS, CLBT, ESTC, HGTY, KKR, PAR, TDOC | - | - | |
| Jul 31 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 30 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Litigation FinanceBurford Capital is the dominant player in litigation finance with 285+ concluded cases showing 90% win rate and 25% IRR. The manager sees significant upside from protein price-fixing settlements that could exceed Burford's market cap, with trials beginning in 2027. These cases are largely unrecognized by sell-side analysts despite their materiality. |
Burford Antitrust Settlement Protein |
Specialty InsuranceHagerty dominates classic car insurance with statutory requirements creating recurring revenue, data advantages improving pricing, and distribution partnerships reducing customer acquisition costs. The manager expects operating leverage to resume despite conservative 2026 guidance, with State Farm partnership accelerating faster than consensus and potential Geico partnership emerging. |
Hagerty Classic Cars State Farm Operating Leverage | |
AIThe manager sees AI creating both winners and losers. Cellebrite is positioned to benefit from AI through its Genesis product, which embeds domain expertise into investigation workflows. The market currently views Cellebrite as an AI loser, but the manager believes Genesis will drive consumption revenue and shift perception. AppLovin demonstrates AI success at scale with 70% revenue growth and 82% EBITDA margins. |
Cellebrite AppLovin Genesis Software | |
Biopharma M&AAnaptysBio's royalty dispute with GSK over Jemperli creates potential for settlement or acquisition. GSK has attempted to acquire AnaptysBio three times in the past year. A settlement or acquisition appears likely given Delaware court dynamics, GSK's $10B+ oncology investments, and the strategic importance of Jemperli as a proprietary backbone for combination therapies. |
AnaptysBio GSK Jemperli Royalties | |
Special SituationsThe manager initiated positions in Compass Diversified and Liquidia as catalyst-driven special situations. Compass trades at a 70% discount to asset value with potential for activist-driven internalization and asset sales. Lifecore's strategic review process could result in a sale at 100%+ premium given insider ownership and contract momentum with large customers. |
Compass Diversified Lifecore Activism Asset Sales | |
Search FundsKingsway is transforming into a public search fund model with nine acquired companies showing accelerating EBITDA growth from $1.4M to $3.5M quarterly. The manager sees this as an emerging compounder with young operators buying undermanaged businesses at 5x EBITDA and driving double-digit organic growth, creating a repeatable model with NOL tax advantages. |
Kingsway Search Funds Organic Growth EBITDA | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Enterprise SoftwareManager owns software companies PAR Technologies and Cellebrite despite sector being out of favor. Software multiples have compressed 26% as AI creates uncertainty about competitive moats. However, specialized software like Cellebrite's digital forensics tools remain defensible against AI disruption. |
SaaS Enterprise Software Digital Forensics Restaurant Technology AI Impact |
Alternative Asset ManagersKKR represents a core holding despite sector headwinds from private equity concerns and private credit issues. Manager believes diversified asset managers with strong track records will continue growing AUM, particularly in private wealth channel where less than 1.5% of $190 trillion is allocated to alternatives. |
Private Equity Private Credit Asset Management Fee Related Earnings Private Wealth | |
Specialty PharmaLifeCore provides contract pharmaceutical manufacturing with focus on GLP-1 programs. Company benefits from reshoring trends and Trump's 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports. Revenue expected to ramp in second half of 2026 with significant operating leverage potential. |
Contract Manufacturing GLP1 Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Reshoring Operating Leverage | |
Specialty InsuranceHagerty specializes in collector car insurance with 86% insider ownership and 90% policy renewal rates. Earnings expected to grow 5x from 2024-2029 driven by State Farm partnership, operating leverage from IT platform consolidation, and normalizing loss ratios. |
Collector Car Insurance State Farm Partnership Operating Leverage Recurring Revenue Loss Ratios | |
| 2025 Q2 |
LitigationBurford Capital holds rights to multiple billion-dollar potential judgements including the YPF Argentina case worth over $16B. The fund is also short two companies facing significant litigation with potential treble damages far exceeding their market capitalizations. |
Legal Settlement Judgement Argentina YPF Damages |
Trade PolicyTrump has repeated desire to impose 200% tariff on drugs made outside the US to be implemented in 1.5 years. This would benefit LifeCore's contract drug manufacturing business which has significant excess capacity and operates domestically. |
Tariffs Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing Onshoring Trump | |
SpaceAST SpaceMobile is developing a space-based cellular broadband network using satellites that communicate directly with unmodified smartphones. The company has partnerships with major telecom operators and potential defense applications including Trump's Golden Dome missile shield program. |
Satellites Cellular Defense Golden Dome Broadband | |
Alternative Asset ManagersKKR represents the trend of big getting bigger in alternative assets with continued success in high-net-worth channels. The industry may benefit from potential executive order allowing alternative managers to sell products to 401K investors holding over $7 trillion in assets. |
Private Equity AUM Growth 401K Distribution Wealth Management | |
OilSable Offshore is reopening an old oilfield in federal waters off California that was operated by Exxon for decades. Environmental litigation has delayed pipeline reopening, but the manager believes litigation should be resolved before year end. |
Offshore California Pipeline Environmental Production | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's Liberation Day tariff policies created significant market volatility and uncertainty. The administration implemented massive tariffs overnight with erroneous methodology, changing policy approaches daily. The manager believes moderate tariffs and weaker dollar policies are more likely long-term outcomes than the reciprocal tariffs initially announced. |
Tariffs Trade War Reciprocal Liberation Day Global Trade |
Alternative Asset ManagersKKR faces headwinds from tariffs and lack of private equity liquidity, but continues gathering assets through diversified platform. K-Series grew from $7B to $18B in 2024 with nearly $1B monthly inflows. Large managers are gaining market share, with 59% of 2024 fundraising going to top 6 managers versus 20% in 2019. |
Private Equity Asset Management K-Series Fundraising AUM | |
OnshoringDrug manufacturing represents a clear onshoring opportunity where the President is correct about domestic production needs. Tariff policies and legislation like BIOSECURE Act make domestic manufacturing partners more attractive. Lifecore benefits as a domestic CDMO with excess capacity positioned for reshoring demand. |
Domestic Manufacturing CDMO Drug Manufacturing BIOSECURE Act Reshoring | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI will be beneficial to portfolio companies like Hagerty for claims processing and Cellebrite for investigation efficiency. Google Gemini demonstrates the technology's potential despite current flaws. The trajectory is clear for AI integration across various business applications. |
AI Automation Efficiency Technology Integration |
Small CapsThe fund focuses on small, illiquid companies that trade at discounts to larger peers. The key question is whether these companies can get there - survive and prosper over time to become larger and more liquid. This illiquidity issue solves itself with growth and execution. |
Small Caps Illiquidity Growth Execution Valuation | |
ValueThe fund hunts outside the S&P 500 for undervalued opportunities while the Magnificent 7 drive index returns. Multiple expansion has driven much outperformance, and the manager is happy hunting for value in overlooked areas with better risk-adjusted returns. |
Value Undervalued Multiples Discount Opportunity | |
| 2024 Q3 |
GLP1LifeCore is positioned to benefit from GLP-1 drug manufacturing capacity constraints. While they don't currently manufacture Ozempic or Wegovy, they are equipped to do so and management has hinted at GLP-1 conversations. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are severely capacity-constrained with 41 countries where GLP drugs are approved but haven't launched due to manufacturing constraints. |
Ozempic Wegovy Manufacturing Capacity CDMO |
OilNew investment in Sable Offshore Corporation, an oil and gas company that acquired Exxon's Santa Barbara operations. The Santa Ynez field was historically one of Exxon's most productive, producing 15% of California's oil before being shut down in 2015 due to pipeline leak. Sable has potential for substantial cash generation if production restarts. |
Production California Offshore Pipeline Exxon | |
Enterprise SoftwarePAR Technology has transformed into a vertical market software company with accelerating growth and inflecting to profitability. The company has improved its POS code base, executed five acquisitions, won Tier 1 customers like Burger King and Wendy's, and grown ARR per share from $1.04 to $5.30 with line of sight to over $8. |
POS Restaurant ARR Acquisitions Profitability | |
CRO & CDMOLifeCore Biomedical is a contract development and manufacturing organization specializing in fill/finish for sterile injectables. The company operates at less than 35% utilization with doubled capacity, meaning it can almost triple revenue with virtually no additional capital. Management targets at least 12% revenue growth and margin improvement from 15% to 25%. |
Fill/Finish Sterile Utilization Capacity Margins | |
AICellebrite is positioned for AI-driven growth in law enforcement analytics. The company has products and relationships in major law enforcement agencies and could leverage AI to help with case backlogs and human capital shortages. AI tools could parse enormous amounts of data for law enforcement struggling with exploding data volumes. |
Law Enforcement Analytics Data Investigation Tools | |
| 2024 Q1 |
SaaSPAR Technology is transitioning to a recurring revenue model with dramatic growth in ARR per share, from $1.04 in 2018 to expected $10+ in 2025. The company benefits from low churn rates and is adding new products like table service POS and online ordering. |
Recurring Revenue ARR POS Restaurant Technology Software |
CybersecurityCellebrite provides digital evidence extraction and analysis tools for law enforcement. The company benefits from growing digital evidence complexity and understaffed agencies needing technology solutions. New AI-enhanced products should drive pricing power. |
Digital Evidence Law Enforcement AI Investigation Tools Mission Critical | |
Alternative Asset ManagersKKR is positioned for inevitable growth with 18% asset compounding for 15 years and 7X fee-related income growth since 2010. The firm has permanent capital, robust distribution channels, and significant dry powder for deployment. |
Private Equity AUM Growth Fee Income Permanent Capital Distribution | |
Specialty FinanceBurford Capital finances litigation with a large portfolio of cases working through the legal system. The company has an 85% success rate historically and benefits from corporate incentives to monetize legal cases for current earnings. |
Litigation Finance Legal Cases Corporate Incentives Risk Management Returns | |
Commercial Real EstateInternational Workplace Group operates flexible office space and is transitioning to an asset-light partnership model similar to Hilton's hotel management approach. Over 800 partnerships signed last year with 1,000+ expected this year. |
Flexible Office Asset Light Partnerships Real Estate Management Workspace | |
Building ProductsLouisiana-Pacific is transitioning from commodity OSB to specialty products and siding with 50% EBITDA margins. The company benefits from housing deficit dynamics and has consolidated industry structure with rational competitors. |
OSB Siding Housing Deficit Specialty Products Margins | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Commercial Real EstateIWG benefits from headwinds facing corporate real estate market as vacancies rise and landlords become more flexible. The company's partnership model helps landlords fill empty space while reducing IWG's capital requirements. |
Office Flexible workspace Landlords Partnerships Asset-light |
AutomationPAR Technology's unified commerce platform combining POS, payments, loyalty, and back office systems is gaining traction with large restaurant chains. The integrated products reinforce each other and provide competitive advantages. |
POS Restaurant technology Unified commerce Integration Loyalty | |
Alternative Asset ManagersKKR is expanding into private wealth channels and building scale across Asia, climate, infrastructure, insurance, and private credit. The private wealth engine should drive meaningful growth for a decade-plus. |
Private wealth Asset gathering Insurance Private credit Scale | |
CybersecurityCellebrite benefits from increasing data volumes on mobile devices and law enforcement's need for digital forensics tools. The company has limited competition and pricing power through new products with greater functionality. |
Digital forensics Law enforcement Mobile data Case management Pricing power | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RestaurantsPAR Technology's exclusive partnership with Burger King North America represents a major validation of their unified commerce strategy. The restaurant technology stack has become increasingly complex, requiring seamless integration between POS systems, mobile apps, delivery services, and loyalty programs. Large QSR chains that attempt to build these systems internally face significant execution risks. |
POS QSR Technology Integration Franchisees |
Private EquityKKR represents a high-quality, durable business model with nearly half of their capital being permanent. The private equity industry continues growing at approximately 10% annually as institutional investors increase allocations. KKR's next growth phases include expanding their high-net-worth franchise and insurance company offerings. |
AUM Permanent Capital Growth Insurance High Net Worth | |
LitigationBurford Capital's litigation funding model provides asymmetric risk-reward profiles, with downside limited to case funding costs and upside limited only by settlement size. Their YPF case against Argentina resulted in a $6.2 billion judgment, demonstrating the power law dynamics where a few massive cases drive significant returns. |
Funding Settlement Argentina Power Law Asymmetric | |
| 2023 Q2 |
SPACsMultiple portfolio companies are former SPACs facing valuation compression despite business improvements. Manager believes SPAC stigma reduces over time as business quality becomes apparent, creating opportunity for multiple expansion. |
SPACs Multiple expansion Stigma Valuation Business quality |
ValueManager focuses on companies trading below intrinsic value with clear paths to appreciation through business improvements, catalyst realization, or multiple expansion. Emphasizes patience and long-term value creation over short-term market sentiment. |
Value Intrinsic value Multiple expansion Patience Long-term | |
Small CapsPortfolio concentrated in small-cap companies that have underperformed large caps for 10 years. Manager believes law of large numbers will favor smaller companies and their turn for outperformance is coming. |
Small caps Underperformance Large caps Outperformance Cycles | |
| 2023 Q1 |
ResilienceManager emphasizes portfolio durability through companies with low churn, strong balance sheets, and secular tailwinds. Uses marble elephant metaphor to distinguish durable businesses from fragile ones, noting less than 20% of original S&P 500 companies survived 50 years. |
Durability Balance Sheets Churn Survival |
SaaSPAR Technology transitioning to Software as a Service model with 30% ARR growth expected. Cellebrite also moving from perpetual licenses to SaaS. Both companies benefit from recurring revenue models and low customer churn. |
Recurring Revenue ARR Subscription | |
Private CreditBurford Capital finances commercial litigation with asymmetric return profile. Historical 90% ROIC with 30% annualized returns. Structural advantages as largest player with best deal flow and proprietary data. |
Litigation Finance Alternative Credit Asymmetric Returns |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott Miller | SOC | Sable Offshore Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | - | Catalyst, litigation, Offshore, oil, Re-rating | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott Miller | BUR | Burford Capital Limited | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | NYSE | Asymmetric, Catalyst, Claims, litigation, Sovereign | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott Miller | LFCR | LifeCore Biomedical Inc. | Health Care | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | Bull | NASDAQ | Capacity, CDMO, leverage, manufacturing, tariffs | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott Miller | CLBT | Cellebrite DI Ltd. | Information Technology | Software - Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | ARR, Catalysts, Intelligence, sale, Software | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott Miller | KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | NYSE | Alternatives, AUM, Distribution, Fundraising, private equity | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott Miller | PAR | PAR Technology Corporation | Information Technology | Software - Application | Bull | NYSE | pipeline, POS, profitability, QSR, Software | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott Miller | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Information Technology | Communication Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | broadband, Connectivity, Partnerships, Satellites, Telecom | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| TSN | Unlike the Argentina case, the defendants are very large companies, including Tyson Foods (TSN), Pilgrim's Pride (PPC), Koch Foods, and Cargill. Combined, they have already spent billions settling some of these antitrust claims. |
| PPC | Unlike the Argentina case, the defendants are very large companies, including Tyson Foods (TSN), Pilgrim's Pride (PPC), Koch Foods, and Cargill. Combined, they have already spent billions settling some of these antitrust claims. Large food companies have paid substantial sums to settle price-fixing claims, and Pilgrim's Pride pleaded guilty to criminal price fixing. |
| CODI | Compass Diversified (CODI) — This special situation will prove to be either a dollar purchased for thirty cents or a value trap that enriches their managers. Compass Diversified is a holding company with seven businesses. It previously had eight, but fraud at one subsidiary damaged the balance sheet and required a financial restatement. An activist investor has advocated selling all the businesses. On paper, the logic is compelling: the holdings are likely worth multiples of the $10 share price. Applying reasonable multiples to the underlying businesses yields $30+ in asset values. The primary barriers to selling the underlying businesses and returning the cash to shareholders are the board and, more importantly, the 'external manager,' which is paid a fee for running the business. Given the ownership dynamics—insiders own less than 10%—the large discount to fair value (70%), and the fraud that occurred under the management company's watch, there is a credible path to replacing board members if necessary, internalizing management, selling assets, and buying back shares. |
| LQDA | Liquidia (LQDA) — This is another special situation. The company has launched a successful drug but remains in a patent dispute that will determine how large their market can be. We purchased shares below where I believed they would settle even after an adverse trial outcome. The shares appreciated more than 30% before a verdict, so we realized a short-term gain and will revisit the investment after the decision. |
| APP | AppLovin (APP) — This is a 1% position in a small AI basket. AppLovin is an AI company whose product happens to be ad matching. AXON predicts which ad to show to which user to maximize conversion. AppLovin has been one of the best companies at using AI at scale to drive revenues and profits. In 2025 revenue grew ~70% year-over-year to $5.48B with ~82% adjusted EBITDA margin and $3.95B of free cash flow (FCF), an 88% conversion of EBITDA to FCF. In 2025 the company was a rule of 142 company with 70% revenue growth and 72% FCF margin. AppLovin should generate more than $6 million of EBITDA per employee in 2026, paring down headcount while growing at very high rates. Shares trade at sub 20X 2027 FCF. |
| ANAB | AnaptysBio is a drug royalty company. In 2014, Tesaro licensed a portfolio of pre-clinical antibodies from AnaptysBio. Tesaro, then a small company with $180M in cash, paid AnaptysBio $17M under an agreement designed for two small companies. Five years later, in 2019, GlaxoSmithKline acquired Tesaro. In 2021, AnaptysBio's cancer drug Jemperli was approved. Five years after that, GSK spent $10.6B to acquire Nuvalent and their cancer portfolio. This year, Jemperli will generate more than $1B of revenue for GSK. AnaptysBio is suing GSK for allegedly violating provisions governing notification, exclusivity, and commercial optimization through a trial involving another cancer drug. This is the second time AnaptysBio has sued GSK. The first lawsuit settled for a $60M cash payment and a near doubling of the royalty rates. A settlement or sale appears likely for three reasons: 1) Delaware courts tend to push parties toward settlements. 2) If Anaptys prevails on its material-breach and reversion claims, GSK could ultimately lose the rights to Jemperli, a $1B-plus drug that is still growing. 3) AnaptysBio's directors and executive officers beneficially own approximately 31.5% of the company, creating substantial alignment with shareholders. At the trial, it was disclosed that GSK had tried to buy AnaptysBio three times in the past year. Before the ruling, I believe the most likely outcome is that GSK acquires AnaptysBio for a price more than 50% above our purchase price. |
| LFCR | Another top-five holding is Lifecore (LFCR). The entire thesis is that they can sell their excess manufacturing capacity. The company has announced seven new customers in the past nine months, and while the customers are not named specifically, breadcrumbs indicate at least two large customers. Public investors do not appear to fully value Lifecore's contract wins because lengthy FDA approval processes delay the associated revenue. Yet those approvals also make the contracts exceptionally sticky, a characteristic private investors are typically more willing to value. I continue to believe the shares will trade higher or the company will be sold. A recent SEC filing indicated that the company continues to evaluate a range of strategic alternatives. Insiders own more than 30% of the company, and in most scenarios I model, a sale would occur at a substantial premium to today's share price, potentially more than 100%. |
| KKR | We still own PAR and KKR, but they are not currently top-five holdings, so we will devote more space to the new investments. KKR remains a great business. I believe the private credit scare will pass and AUM will march higher, driven by the maturation of existing strategies and the development of the high-net-worth channel. |
| PAR | We still own PAR and KKR, but they are not currently top-five holdings, so we will devote more space to the new investments. My view on PAR remains that there is a long runway for growth and that the company has inflected to EBITDA profitability. If our view is variant, it is in two places: analysts are significantly underestimating 2027 EBITDA and underestimating PAR's chances of winning McDonald's. |
| GSK | Five years later, in 2019, GlaxoSmithKline acquired Tesaro. In 2021, AnaptysBio's cancer drug Jemperli was approved. Five years after that, GSK spent $10.6B to acquire Nuvalent and their cancer portfolio. This year, Jemperli will generate more than $1B of revenue for GSK. An agreement requiring exclusivity, notification rights, and an 'optimal commercial return' may have made sense between AnaptysBio and Tesaro, but it may not fit GSK's effort to optimize a cancer portfolio in which it has invested tens of billions of dollars. GSK describes Jemperli as a proprietary immuno-oncology backbone being developed across several solid tumors and estimates more than £2B in peak-year sales potential. The size of the Nuvalent acquisition shows the scale of GSK's oncology ambitions. Using their own checkpoint inhibitor gives GSK greater control over trial design, development timing, and economics than relying on another company's drug. This suggests that Jemperli may be worth more to GSK as a strategic building block than their current sales alone imply. AnaptysBio is suing GSK for allegedly violating provisions governing notification, exclusivity, and commercial optimization. At the trial, it was disclosed that GSK had tried to buy AnaptysBio three times in the past year. |
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