| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 15.6% | 9.6% | - |
| 2024 |
|---|
| 12.1% |
Massif Capital's Real Assets Strategy delivered 9.6% net returns in Q4 2025, bringing full-year performance to 50.0% net. The portfolio remains concentrated in mining and energy, with gold (10%), copper (29%), and oil (16%) as primary themes. Performance was driven by operating leverage to metals, led by Equinox Gold (+179%), G-Mining Ventures (+184%), and Lundin Mining. The manager argues markets are transitioning between regimes rather than oscillating within a stable framework, as post-2009 assumptions about policy support, global fungibility, and correlation-based risk reduction face challenges from persistent inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and industrial policy. Key positioning focuses on companies with proven economics at mid-cycle prices rather than directional commodity bets. The copper market appears structurally tight with supply disruptions exceeding 6% of global output, while oil faces surplus conditions punctuated by geopolitical premiums. Looking ahead, the manager anticipates rebalancing toward a broader real-assets universe including wind power, defense, and specialty chemicals as mining opportunities normalize at higher price plateaus.
Real assets are entering a new regime where traditional post-2009 assumptions about correlations, policy support, and global fungibility no longer apply, requiring methodological rather than directional responses to navigate persistent inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and industrial policy-driven market structures.
Manager expects the moment is approaching when a rebalancing away from a mining-centric portfolio toward a more eclectic mix of real-asset businesses will be warranted. Opportunities in mining continue but not with the same breadth or asymmetry that characterized earlier stages of this cycle. The current commodity upswing is expected to broaden and include periodic meaningful drawdowns.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 1211.HK, BHP, ENVX, EQNR, EQX.TO, GLEN.L, GLO.TO, GMIN.V, Gold, HBR.L, KGHM, LITM, LRV.AX, LUN.TO, LYB, MGN.V, MMA.V, RIO, VALE, VAR.OL | commodities, Copper, energy, geopolitics, gold, inflation, Mining, real assets |
EQX CN GMIN CN VAR NO HBR LN EQNR NO MMA CN LUN CN LAR GLO CN |
Portfolio exposure narrowed from 16% to 10% in single position (Equinox Gold). Manager believes gold serves as monetary hedge amid central bank independence concerns and… |
| Nov 3 2025 | 2025 Q3 | LUN CN, NGEX CN, NICU CN | Copper, Critical Metals, gold, inflation, Mining | - | The fund emphasized metals and mining investments, with strong performance in gold and copper positions such as G-Mining Ventures, Equinox Gold, NGEX, and Midnight Sun.… |
| Jul 23 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AFM CN, CHG LN, ENVX, HBR LN, TGN AU, VAR NO | geopolitics, inflation protection, real assets, Resources, supply constraints |
CHG LN 6368 JP ENVX |
The letter centers on real assets and resource-related investments as strategic beneficiaries of supply constraints and long-cycle capital underinvestment. Management discusses energy, materials, and infrastructure… |
| May 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 22 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AFM CN, ENR GR, ENVX, EQX, GMIN CN, LAAC | - | - | - |
| Oct 29 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AFM CN, ENR GR, ENVX | - | - | - |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ENR GR, ENVX, LTUM | - | - | - |
| May 18 2024 | 2024 Q1 | OSI CN | - | - | - |
| May 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | LAAC, LAC, LIT, LTUM, PLL | - | - | - |
| Oct 18 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 14 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AES, ENR GR, PICK, PIF CN | - | - | - |
| Feb 5 2023 | 2023 Q1 | EQX, LAC | - | - | - |
| Jan 25 2023 | 2022 Q4 | AES, CGP CN, ENR GR, EQX, ORA, PIF CN | - | - | - |
| Oct 20 2022 | 2022 Q3 | AES, EQX, PIF | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
Industrial PolicyGlobal shift towards National Capitalism where governments actively prioritize national economic interests over global integration, using tools like tariffs, subsidies, and industrial policy to support domestic production. This represents movement away from market-based economies toward greater state intervention. |
Tariffs Subsidies Protectionism Nationalism Intervention | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
OilOil markets disrupted by closure of Straits of Hormuz affecting 20% of global production. Prices surged from $70 to $119.50 before retreating to $90. Market may be tighter than commonly believed despite IEA projections of surplus. Oil represents cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold. |
Crude Brent WTI Hormuz Supply | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CommoditiesBull market may be in early stages with most commodities 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. Commodity-to-equity ratio near historic lows suggests capital starvation. Current cycle appears only one-third complete compared to historical precedent. |
Cycles Capital Valuation Equities |
| 2025 Q2 |
Resources |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | HBR LN | Harbour Energy plc | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, Balancesheet, Discipline, Freecashflow, oil | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | EQNR NO | Equinor ASA | Energy | Integrated Oil & Gas | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Balancesheet, cashflow, Integratedenergy, Offshore, stability | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | MMA CN | Midnight Sun Mining Corp. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Copper, Dilution, Exploration, Optionality, Partnerships | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | LUN CN | Lundin Mining Corporation | Materials | Copper | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capitalallocation, Copper, Electrification, Reserves, Scarcity | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | LAR | Lithium Argentina AG | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brines, Elections, Governance, Lithium, Scarcity | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | GLO CN | Global Atomic Corporation | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | construction, Geopolitics, Permitting, Scarcity, uranium | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | CHG LN | Chemring Group PLC | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Budgets, Defense, duopoly, Energetics, Pricingpower, Rearmament | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | 6368 JP | Organo Corporation | Industrials | Machinery | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Fabs, Purification, semiconductors, Triopoly, valuation, Water | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | ENVX | Enovix Corporation | Industrials | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Batteries, Energy-Density, growth, innovation, Shortsqueeze, Silicon-Anode | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | EQX CN | Equinox Gold Corp. | Materials | Gold | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, deleveraging, dividends, Freecashflow, Gold | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | GMIN CN | G Mining Ventures Corp. | Materials | Gold | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Beta, construction, Discipline, Executionrisk, Gold | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | VAR NO | Vår Energi ASA | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | dividends, Freecashflow, oil, Production, resilience | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 1211.HK | The contributors in returns in 2025 came from BYD Co Ltd, American Express Co, and Bank of America Corp. Similarly with BYD, the thesis is simple. It has the most integrated operations and lowest costs. Yes, there is currently a price war but that means that BYD can drive much-needed consolidation in China and perhaps beyond. Moreover, with its low-cost structure, BYD can choose to return the industry to profitability when it wants. |
| ENVX | On the downside, Enovix reduced returns by 1.6%. We have high expectations for Enovix this year as it advances its respective projects. |
| EQNR | Equinor provides ballast. With scale, diversification, and a net-cash balance sheet, Equinor's exposure is skewed toward late-cycle offshore supply that has already cleared the sanctioning hurdle. |
| EQX.TO | EQX finished the year at a new all-time high and was the portfolio's strongest contributor in 2025, rising 179% from December 31st, 2024, to December 31st, 2025, and accounted for 11.8% of total portfolio returns. At an assumed average gold price of $4,000 per ounce, roughly 12% below spot, we estimate free cash flow of approximately $1.5 billion, implying a 13.1% yield on a debt-free balance sheet. |
| GLEN.L | Glencore also contributed as commodity markets remained firm. |
| GLO.TO | We believe Global Atomic is approaching a constructive financing catalyst in the first half of the year, which would fully fund it through its first uranium production in late 2027 or early 2028. At present, Global Atomic remains the only greenfield uranium mine under construction globally. |
| GMIN.V | The second-largest contributor to 2025 performance was also a gold miner, G Mining Ventures (GMIN), which we exited in October at an average price of CAD 32. That sale crystallized a 184% return over the year and contributed 10.1% to the portfolio. |
| HBR.L | While we have only owned Harbour since the summer of 2024, it has been a very eventful holding period. A significant part of our investment thesis has revolved around a highly competent management team with a well-conceived counter-cyclical acquisition strategy. At the end of 2024, the company completed an unusually attractive transformative acquisition that had been announced some months before we initiated our investment. More recently, the company undertook a flurry of activity in December 2025. First, the company agreed to sell its interests in two fields in Indonesia, which represented smaller, non-strategic assets for the company, though the transaction proceeds furthered Harbour's financial ability to execute future transactions. The future came just a matter of days later when Harbour announced a clever acquisition of a small U.K. North Sea producer. Later in the same month, Harbour announced a large acquisition of a family-controlled U.S. offshore deepwater producer based in Louisiana. |
| LITM | We entered the year with modest expectations for Lithium Argentina's share-price performance and have been surprised by the outcome. A sharp rebound in lithium prices has lifted the broader sector, pushing Lithium Argentina's shares up 180% over the past 12 months. |
| LUN.TO | During the fourth quarter and full-year 2025, Lundin Mining and Capstone Copper provided two of the Fund's largest contributions to performance. We have been optimistic, over a long holding period for both companies, that the indispensable nature of copper to modern economies and the exceptional difficulty of maintaining current global supply would become better appreciated. During the last couple of years, we would say that a growing awareness has begun. |
| LYB | Robert Half, down another 18.3% (and now 59.1% for the year) and LyondellBasell, down another 9.2% (making it 35.9% for the year) have been major disappointments. The news isn't getting any better from either company. And it is now evident that the broader market is factoring poor industry conditions for a longer period than implied by our valuations for both businesses. Hence they trade at a large discount. And worryingly, consensus earnings estimates suggest their dividends are at risk (Robert Half has an 8.6% dividend yield and LyondellBasell's is 12.6% - and tax free). Current hindsight points to our purchases during their price descents (in May, August and October) as mistakes. But we still expect the industries in which these businesses operate (recruitment / outplacement and chemicals / plastics) to recover and to lead to solid share price rebounds - but the timing is unknown. Admittedly, with each successive result announcement our level of conviction declines. Hence, we ceased topping up and the Fund's position in each business is currently 2.2% and 4.4%. |
| MGN.V | Magna Mining is up 60% from our cost basis; the position comprises both equity and a convertible bond yielding 10%. By 2028, we believe Magna will operate three mines and produce more than 100 million lbs of copper per year. |
| MMA.V | Midnight Sun is up 291% from our cost basis. The firm's Solwezi Project spans roughly 500 square kilometers and hosts multiple independent targets in Zambia's copper-rich Solwezi region. |
| VALE | Top gainers included Vale (+26%) |
| VAR.OL | We estimate that in a $55 to $70 price range VAR has the highest free-cash-flow yield in the European E&P space, with a free-cash-flow yield of as much as 18%. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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