Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2023
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 0% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 0% |
Nordstern Capital's investment philosophy centers on intrinsic valuation rather than market pricing, using explicit assumptions about future cash flows and risk to determine value. Manager Johannes Arnold argues that most market participants rely on pricing comparables, which can lead to owning declining or fraudulent businesses. The fund's edge comes from behavioral advantages including long-term committed capital that enables patient decision making, explicit business assumptions that improve clarity, and a structured process that mitigates cognitive biases. Rather than high concentration, the strategy emphasizes diversification across different risk factors, from unprofitable startups to mature corporations, seeking good price-to-value opportunities across the entire spectrum. The manager believes multi-decade outperformance is achieved primarily by making fewer mistakes than average market participants. With partners' trust enabling focus on long-term cash flow prospects rather than short-term volatility, the fund aims to deliver superior returns through continuous improvement in company valuation skills.
Nordstern Capital achieves outperformance through intrinsic valuation based on future cash flows and risk assessment, combined with behavioral advantages from long-term committed capital and diversified exposure across different risk factors.
Manager expresses confidence that dedicated focus on long-term cash flow prospects will result in better long-term returns, emphasizing continuous improvement through practice and mastery of company valuation.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | Behavioral, diversification, Intrinsic, long-term, risk, value | - | Nordstern Capital employs intrinsic valuation based on cash flows and risk rather than market pricing. The fund's edge stems from behavioral advantages including long-term capital and diversified exposure across risk factors. Manager emphasizes avoiding mistakes through explicit assumptions and structured processes, believing this approach will deliver superior long-term returns. |
| Apr 5 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ASTL.TO, EMBRAC.ST, STNE | Brazil, gaming, infrastructure, long-term, payments, Steel, value |
STNE ASTL EMBRAC-B.ST |
Concentrated portfolio of three undervalued companies positioned for long-term growth. StoneCo benefits from Brazilian regulatory changes and operational improvements. Algoma Steel leverages infrastructure spending boom with major capacity expansion project. Embracer Group weathers short seller attacks with strong gaming IP portfolio and strategic partnerships. All holdings generate strong cash flows for capital returns. |
| Jan 25 2023 | 2022 Q4 | IPT GR, NORDENP LN | - | - | |
| Feb 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | ASTL, EMBRACB SS | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q4 |
ValueManager advocates for intrinsic valuation based on future cash flows and risk assessment rather than pricing-based approaches. Emphasizes that true value investing requires explicit assumptions about business fundamentals rather than relying on market comparables. |
Intrinsic Cashflow Fundamentals Pricing Assumptions |
| 2023 Q1 |
SteelHot-rolled coil steel prices rallied from $700 to $1,000 per ton with Cleveland Cliffs raising prices to $1,300. Infrastructure spending from various acts should drive 5 million tons of steel demand per $100 billion spent, plus 2-3 million tons annually for renewable projects. Algoma Steel's EAF project should enable 30% increased production and $100 million annual cost savings by 2028. |
Steel Infrastructure EAF Production Pricing |
GamingDead Island 2 is topping US video game sales charts, disproving opinions that mid-size AAA games will be crowded out by big budget megahits. The game had a budget 20 times smaller than some $1 billion productions but delivers strong ROI. Embracer's transmedia strategy and scale makes it attractive for partnerships with leading platforms and media houses. |
Gaming AAA IP Transmedia ROI | |
Infrastructure SpendingThe Infrastructure Investment Act, Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act provide combined $975 billion funding. An estimated 5 million tons of steel is needed for every $100 billion in infrastructure spending, with additional 2-3 million tons of annual steel demand for wind, solar and transmission projects. |
Infrastructure Government Steel Renewables Spending | |
PaymentsStoneCo continues transformation with new personnel, strengthened board and management, growing cash flows and expanding market share. The company plans to restart lending business in second half 2023. Interchange fee caps in Brazil starting April should increase margins as StoneCo won't pass through savings to customers. |
Payments Brazil Fintech Lending Margins |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2023 | Fund Letters | Nordstern Capital Investors | STNE | StoneCo Ltd | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Brazil, Fintech, Lending, margin expansion, market share, payment processing, Regulatory tailwinds, turnaround | Login |
| May 4, 2023 | Fund Letters | Nordstern Capital Investors | ASTL | Algoma Steel Group Inc | Materials | Steel | Bull | TSX | Canada, cost savings, Cyclical Recovery, EAF Project, Free Cash Flow, infrastructure spending, Share Buybacks, Steel | Login |
| May 4, 2023 | Fund Letters | Nordstern Capital Investors | EMBRAC-B.ST | Embracer Group AB | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ Stockholm | Acquisitions, cash flow generation, Gaming, IP Portfolio, Short-Seller Attack, Sum-of-parts, Sweden, Transmedia | Login |
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