| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Pantera Capital views 2025 as a challenging but foundational year for crypto markets, characterized by macro-driven volatility rather than fundamental performance. Bitcoin declined 6% while broader tokens fell 60%, with the non-bitcoin market in a bear market since December 2024. Key headwinds included value accrual challenges, slowing on-chain activity, and speculative capital rotation to other sectors. However, institutional adoption continues broadening with enterprises integrating blockchain and sovereigns establishing reserves. Product-market fit is emerging in stablecoins and prediction markets. The macro backdrop remains supportive with a resilient U.S. economy and improving liquidity conditions. With sentiment washed out, leverage reduced, and significant repricing complete, forward-looking setups appear increasingly asymmetric. Pantera expects 2026 to be driven by consolidation, compliance, and institutional adoption rather than speculation, with only one or two players dominating each major asset class while others get acquired or left behind.
Crypto markets are transitioning from speculation-driven to institutionally-driven with improving fundamentals despite near-term headwinds.
Constructively optimistic despite 2025 challenges. Forward-looking setups appear increasingly asymmetric with sentiment washed out, leverage reduced, and significant repricing behind us. 2026 expected to be driven by consolidation, compliance, and institutional adoption rather than speculation.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 3662.T, COIN, HOOD, JPM | AI, Bitcoin, Blockchain, crypto, ETFs, Institutional, Prediction Markets | - | 2025 was dominated by macro, positioning, and flows rather than fundamentals for crypto markets. Bitcoin finished down 6%, Ethereum down 11%, while broader tokens declined 60%. The non-bitcoin token market has been in a bear market since December 2024, with structural headwinds including value accrual challenges and slowing on-chain activity. AI is revolutionizing on-chain security with real-time fraud detection and smart contract debugging. Consumer AI platforms will surge with hyper-personalized crypto experiences. AI security tools are detecting millions in blockchain vulnerabilities and will transform governance with deterministic, verifiable rules. ETF flows played a significant role in crypto markets, with institutional adoption concentrated in ETF-format assets like bitcoin, ethereum, and Solana. Speculative capital rotated to other sectors including gold, silver, and quantum computing ETFs, while digital asset ETF flows slowed and turned negative. |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | HSDT | Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, IPO, Solana | HSDT US | Pantera Capital emphasizes the hybrid blockchain investment structure combining venture and hedge strategies, driving significant gains in Solana and token investments. It sees regulatory clarity, AI convergence, and new IPO pathways as catalysts for crypto growth. Pantera highlights the rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) and Solanas leadership in decentralized applications. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Bitcoin, Blockchain, crypto, institutional adoption, Stablecoins | - | The letter frames digital assets as a structural, long-term shift in the global financial system driven by regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and the separation of money from the state. Management highlights Digital Asset Treasury companies and stablecoins as a new investable category offering asymmetric risk-reward through public-market crypto exposure. The outlook emphasizes bitcoin, stablecoins, and blockchain infrastructure as emerging monetary and payment rails with increasing relevance to institutional portfolios. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 13 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 22 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| May 23 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 16 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 31 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 22 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 20 2023 | 2023 Q1 | WWAC | - | - | |
| Feb 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
ETFsThe fund's strategy focuses on closed-end funds rather than ETFs, but operates in the broader fund ecosystem. They compare performance against closed-end fund indices and utilize various fund structures in their investment approach. |
Closed-End Funds Fund Discounts Fund Selection Alternative Structures | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Blockchain |
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CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
IPOs |
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Solana |
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| 2025 Q2 |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dan Morehead | HSDT US | Solana Company (formerly Helius Medical Technologies) | Financials | Blockchain Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | Blockchain, Crypto, Depin, Fintech, growth, infrastructure, Solana, Tokens | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 3662.T | Japan's Metaplanet is already aggressive, so the U.S. no longer owns the trend as the global treasury landscape diversifies |
| COIN | Coinbase (a new position) experienced extended volatility as crypto currency prices softened into December. We continued to build exposure to our financial deregulation and disintermediation of financial services theme through the purchase of Coinbase, to gain exposure to the regulated infrastructure of cryptocurrencies - particularly stablecoins - following the passage of the GENIUS Act by Congress. |
| HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a digital brokerage platform serving retail investors. Shares detracted during the quarter following robust performance over the first nine months of the year. While overall activity levels remain strong, Robinhood experienced some softening in customer engagement in November, with cryptocurrency trading volumes in particular declining on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. |
| JPM | JPMorgan (JPM) has identified 42 AI-related stocks in the S&P 500, which today represent 45% of the index's market cap. They estimate that these stocks have accounted for 78% of S&P 500 returns, 66% of earnings growth, and 71% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. As it relates to the impact on the U.S. economy, JPM estimates tech sector capital spending contributed 40%-45% of U.S. GDP growth through the first 9 months of the year, up from less than 5% during the same period in 2023. |
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