| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 17.52% | 13.7% | 5.89% |
Giverny Capital's portfolio returned 13.7% in Q2 2026 versus 15.2% for the S&P 500, bringing year-to-date returns to 5.89% versus 10.21% for the Index. Manager David Poppe observes extreme market dispersion, with 210 S&P 500 stocks posting negative returns while the Index gained 10.2% in the first half. The manager attributes this to momentum-chasing behavior, with investors oscillating between fear of missing AI opportunities and fear of disappointing returns from massive data center investments. Despite underperformance, Poppe maintains conviction in quality holdings like Charles Schwab, Mastercard, JP Morgan, and Progressive, which continue growing earnings at healthy rates but trade at significant discounts to the Index. The portfolio's largest positions remain AI-exposed companies Alphabet, Arista Networks, and Taiwan Semiconductor, though Poppe trimmed both Alphabet and Arista after strong appreciation made them expensive. He redeployed proceeds into undervalued financials. The manager believes the market remains a weighing machine long-term and expects earnings growth to drive returns for his concentrated portfolio of 10-15 high-quality compounders.
Own high-quality earnings compounders with dominant competitive positions that are being undervalued by a momentum-driven market, while maintaining exposure to AI leaders despite elevated valuations.
The manager expects to continue owning high quality earnings compounders that will benefit from implementing AI capabilities and maintain dominant competitive positions. While acknowledging that top technology positions are expensive and future returns may be lower, the manager believes the best course is to continue owning terrific companies being left behind by momentum-chasing alongside technology leaders. The manager views current holdings outside technology as attractively priced despite healthy earnings growth.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AAON, AAPL, AMZN, ANET, CSU.TO, GOOGL, IBP, JPM, KNSL, MA, META, NVDA, ORCL, PGR, SCHW, TSM, TWFG | AI, Data centers, earnings, momentum, Quality, semiconductors, technology, value | - | Giverny Capital maintains a concentrated portfolio of quality earnings compounders despite Q2 underperformance driven by extreme market dispersion favoring momentum. Manager Poppe trimmed expensive AI winners Alphabet and Arista to add to undervalued financials like Schwab and Progressive growing earnings 15-25% annually but trading at half the market multiple. He views current momentum-chasing as unsustainable and expects long-term returns to follow earnings growth. |
| Apr 13 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AME, AXP, CSU.TO, HWKN, IBP, KNSL, TSM, TWFG | Concentration, Quality, software, technology, value |
CSU.TO AXP |
Giverny underperformed in Q1 as Constellation Software fell 44% on AI disruption fears, though the manager believes ERP switching costs protect the business. Exited Ametek on valuation, bought American Express after 25% decline. Maintains focus on quality companies with competitive moats despite market volatility from geopolitical tensions. |
| Jan 27 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ALGN, ANET, CACC, CSU.TO, FERG, FI, GOOGL, HEI, HWKN, IBP, JPM, KGIC, KMX, MA, MEDP, META, SCHW, TSM, TWFG, WSO | AI, HVAC, insurance, Quality, small caps, technology, value |
ANET SCHW KNSL WSO ALGN KMX CACC FISV |
Giverny delivered 12.6% returns in 2025 but lagged the S&P 500 due to mega-cap tech dominance. The portfolio's 45% small-cap allocation and focus on niche market leaders faced headwinds from AI infrastructure euphoria. Manager added HVAC and water treatment companies while exiting underperformers, maintaining conviction that quality businesses will ultimately outperform despite current momentum favoring tech giants. |
| Oct 6 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAON, ALGN, ANET, CACC, CSU.TO, FERG, FI, GOOGL, HEI, IBP, JPM, KMX, KNSL, MEDP, META, NVDA, PGR, SCHW, TSM, TWFG | AI, Geopolitical Risk, Owner Operators, Quality, semiconductors, technology, valuation |
MEDP US NVDA US |
Giverny delivered solid Q3 returns despite late-quarter headwinds from key holdings. Portfolio maintains focus on founder-led quality businesses with strong balance sheets. Initiated Taiwan Semiconductor position to capitalize on semiconductor manufacturing dominance. Manager warns of AI euphoria reaching dangerous levels while maintaining 30% technology exposure through high-quality names positioned for long-term secular growth. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAON, ALGN, ANET, BLDR, BRK.A, CSU.TO, FERG, FI, GOOGL, HEI.A, IBP, JPM, KMX, KNSL, MA, MEDP, META, MTB, PGR, SCHW | AI, Banking, insurance, Quality, technology, value |
KNSL FISV GOOG MTB PGR KNSL FI |
Giverny Capital delivered 5.41% returns amid market volatility, maintaining defensive positioning with 40% of holdings in net cash and low debt levels. The portfolio increased AI exposure to one-third while trimming winners like Progressive and adding to quality names during weakness. Strong balance sheets and market-leading niche businesses provide downside protection while capturing long-term growth opportunities. |
| Apr 15 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAON, ANET, BLDR, BRK-B, CSU.TO, FIVE, GOOGL, HEI, KMX, KNSL, MEDP, META, PGR, SCHW, TWFG | Construction, insurance, Quality, technology, Trade Policy, value |
TWFG AAON BLDR |
Giverny Capital outperformed during Q1 2025's tariff-induced volatility by focusing on quality companies with strong balance sheets. The manager established new positions in insurance, HVAC, and building products while maintaining conviction in technology leaders. Despite trade policy headwinds creating market uncertainty, the portfolio's cash-rich holdings are positioned to capitalize on dislocations while delivering long-term earnings growth. |
| Jan 24 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AHT.L, ALGN, ANET, BRK-A, CACC, CSU.TO, FERG, FI, FIVE, GOOGL, HEI.A, IBP, JPM, KNSL, MA, MEDP, META, MTB, PGR, SCHW | AI, Concentration, growth, mid cap, technology, value |
MTB AHT IBP FI FERG KNSL ALGN MEDP |
Giverny delivered 21% returns in 2024 but lagged the S&P 500 due to underweight exposure to Magnificent Seven tech stocks. The manager focuses on midcap companies with proven business models and growth potential, believing current market concentration at 100-year highs will eventually reverse. Strong performance from non-tech holdings validates the quality-focused approach. |
| Oct 21 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, AHT.L, AMZN, ANET, BRK.A, CSU.TO, FND, GOOG, GOOGL, HEI.A, IBP, KMX, MEDP, META, MSFT, NVDA, PGR, SCHW, TSLA | earnings, growth, Quality, US, value | MEDP | Giverny delivered strong Q3 returns in an exceptional environment for US capitalists, with corporate ROE at 20% versus historical 14%. Manager trimmed winners Progressive and Berkshire while adding clinical research firm Medpace. Despite outperformance, warns current valuations unsustainable and expects lower future returns while maintaining focus on highest-quality owner-managed businesses. |
| Jul 16 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, ADI, AHT.L, AMZN, ANET, BRK-B, CSU.TO, ERF.PA, FIVE, GOOGL, HEI, IBP, KMX, KSL, META, MSFT, NVDA, PGR, SCHW, TSLA | AI, Concentration, Quality, small caps, technology, value |
FIVE ERF.PA KMX |
Giverny underperformed in Q2 due to limited Magnificent Seven exposure but maintains conviction in smaller, quality companies. AI beneficiaries Arista, Meta, and Alphabet drove gains while Five Below and Eurofins declined significantly. The manager sees current market concentration as unsustainable and expects the portfolio's 16% projected earnings growth to outpace the index's 12.5%. |
| Apr 27 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AHT.L, ALGN, AME, ANET, BRK-B, CACC, CSU.TO, EUFI.PA, FIVE, GOOGL, HEI.A, IBP, JPM, KMX, KNSL, MA, META, MTB, PGR, SCHW | Concentration, financials, long-term, Quality, technology, value | - | Giverny Capital's concentrated quality approach delivered 14.91% in Q1, outperforming by 435bp. Manager Poppe maintains 15 of 17 original large positions from 2020, emphasizing duration over trading in high-quality businesses with strong management. Portfolio positioned in $20B market caps versus Index mega-cap concentration, with infrastructure exposure through Ashtead and plans to further concentrate holdings. |
| Mar 18 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BRK-B, BRO, CMG, GOOGL, MCD, META, MSFT, MTB, NVDA, NVO, NVR, OZRK, SCHW, TSLA | Banking, Canada, long-term, Quality, technology, value | - | Giverny Capital's 30-year track record demonstrates the power of long-term value investing, delivering 24.3% returns in 2023 and 14.8% annualized since 1993. The concentrated portfolio of quality companies with strong fundamentals continues to outperform despite market volatility. Management remains committed to Buffett-style investing principles and expects portfolio companies to achieve record profits in 2024. |
| Oct 19 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AHT, AME, ANET, BRK-B, CIEN, CSU.TO, FERG, FI, FIVE, FND, GOOGL, HEI, IBP, KMX, META, PGR, SCHW, SSNC | growth, Midcaps, payments, small caps, technology, value |
CIEN SSNC SCHW AHT.L FISV FERG.L |
Giverny Capital delivered solid Q3 performance driven by tech giants Alphabet and Meta, but manager David Poppe prefers the portfolio's midcap exposure over expensive large-cap technology. With 30%+ invested in sub-$22B companies, he sees better value and growth potential in names like Ashtead, Fiserv, and Ferguson versus demanding tech valuations. |
| Jul 13 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, CIEN, GOOG, META, MSFT, PGR | - | - | |
| Apr 17 2023 | 2023 Q1 | FRC, META, SCHW | - | - | |
| Jan 23 2023 | 2022 Q4 | COHR, ERF FP, FD, FIVE, FRCB, GOOG, HEI, JPM, KMX, KO, MA, META, PGR, SCHW | - | - | |
| Oct 14 2022 | 2022 Q3 | BRK/A, CIEN, COHR, ERF FP, FRC, JPM, KMX, META, MKL, MTB, PGR, SCHW | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIManager discusses AI as a revolutionary technological advance with profound effects on economic growth, labor productivity, and corporate earnings. Massive investments are being made in AI data centers without clear visibility on returns. The manager compares the current AI investment cycle to historical infrastructure buildouts like railroads and the dotcom bubble, which created societal wealth but bankrupted early investors. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Technology |
MomentumThe manager observes that the market has increasingly become skewed to chasing momentum since the pandemic. The US Momentum Index now experiences wild swings of 1.5+ percentage points on significantly more days per year compared to a decade ago. This creates a push and pull between fear of missing out on technological advances and fear of being wiped out if returns disappoint. |
Volatility Risk Appetite Market Dynamics | |
EarningsThe manager emphasizes that over decades stock appreciation correlates closely with earnings growth, though these metrics can fluctuate over shorter periods. US earnings growth is the best in the world by a wide margin. The portfolio holds companies like Schwab, Mastercard, JP Morgan, and Progressive that continue to grow earnings at healthy rates despite stock price underperformance. |
Growth Quality Fundamentals | |
Data CentersThe manager highlights strong demand for data center infrastructure, particularly cooling systems and networking equipment. AAON's data center cooling business saw its stock rise 31% in a single day on strong earnings. Arista Networks is positioned as the leading provider of networking equipment for hyperscale data centers, with growth potentially accelerating as AI traffic grows exponentially. |
AI Cloud Infrastructure Networking HVAC | |
SemiconductorsTaiwan Semiconductor is described as the primary supplier of leading-edge computer chips for nearly every major technology company including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Apple. The company's growth is accelerating, with June revenue up 68% year-over-year. The manager has seen the position nearly double since purchasing it last summer. |
Foundries AI Technology Taiwan | |
BuybacksThe manager notes that Progressive Corp. has begun buying back its stock for the first time in years, following a stock price decline despite positive earnings growth. Installed Building Products is also expected to respond to its lower valuation by buying back stock, according to the manager's assessment of management's likely actions. |
Capital Allocation Shareholder Returns Value | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AISoftware businesses have been marked down dramatically as the market believes AI-coded software will be cheap to produce and capable of replacing many existing applications. However, the manager is skeptical that established software companies like Constellation will be displaced quickly, as their ERP systems are expensive and disruptive to replace even if coding becomes cheaper. |
Software ERP Displacement Coding Applications |
SoftwareThe manager believes most software businesses, particularly ERP systems, are difficult to replace due to data integration complexity and switching costs. Despite market concerns about AI disruption, established software companies with embedded customer relationships and service components should prove more durable than the market expects. |
ERP Enterprise Data Integration Service | |
| 2025 Q4 |
OilOil represents the cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold despite balanced fundamentals. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in industry history, disrupting 20 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, with U.S. shale production plateauing outside the Permian Basin. |
Crude Oil Brent WTI Shale OPEC |
Natural GasNatural gas ranks in the 99.5th percentile of historical undervaluation relative to equities. U.S. production growth has concentrated entirely in the Permian Basin, with other shale regions declining. Once the Permian's current gas production surge runs its course, supply growth should plateau and eventually decline, setting the stage for materially higher prices. |
Henry Hub LNG Shale Gas Permian | |
SilverSilver surged 51% in Q4 and over 140% for the year, staging a dramatic catch-up rally relative to gold. This magnitude of silver outperformance has historically marked important turning points, suggesting investors should consider reducing precious metals exposure in the short term despite the strong performance. |
Silver Gold Ratio Precious Metals | |
CopperCopper markets have moved back into surplus as evidenced by rising exchange inventories reaching 1.2 million tonnes. Despite strong Q4 performance with 17% gains, modeling suggests a prolonged period of surplus ahead. Inventories now represent roughly 17 days of global demand, placing them in the top 20% of observations over thirty years. |
Copper Base Metals Exchange Inventories | |
Platinum Group MetalsPGMs continued their powerful advance with platinum and palladium each surging 28% in Q4. Policy reversals in both the U.S. and Europe are unwinding aggressive EV mandates and ICE phase-out timelines, fundamentally improving the demand outlook for auto-catalysts. The prolonged bear market was built on a flawed narrative that is now being rewritten. |
Platinum Palladium Auto Catalysts EV Policy | |
UraniumSurging uranium demand is meeting a fragile supply base, creating fundamental tightness in the market. The uranium section discusses how demand growth is outpacing supply additions, though specific details are referenced for future coverage in the letter. |
Uranium Nuclear Supply Demand | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIManager discusses AI enthusiasm reaching euphoria levels, with 41 AI-related stocks accounting for 75% of S&P 500 returns since ChatGPT launched. Portfolio has 30% exposure through Arista, Alphabet, Meta, Taiwan Semiconductor and Aaon. Expresses concern about Nvidia's $100 billion financing deal with OpenAI, comparing it to dot-com era vendor financing arrangements. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Nvidia Infrastructure |
SemiconductorsInitiated 3.5% position in Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's foremost semiconductor manufacturer. TSMC dominates leading-edge chip manufacturing at 2-3 nanometers while competitors struggle. Demand for high-performance chips expected to grow 60% annually through 2030. Four of top 10 S&P 500 stocks depend on TSMC as sole chip source. |
Foundries Manufacturing Technology Supply Chain Geopolitical Risk | |
QualityNine of 10 largest holdings have founder or founding family involvement in management or board. Four of top 10 positions have net cash on balance sheets. Portfolio aligned with owner-managers who have their life's work tied up in business and created distinctive cultures characterized by bold vision and financial conservatism. |
Owner Operators Balance Sheet Management Culture Capital Allocation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIThe US appears to be the global leader in Artificial Intelligence, with hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in AI data centers over the next few years. Close to one-third of the portfolio has considerable exposure to AI through positions in Arista, Alphabet, Meta, AAON, and a new holding that is critical to the buildout of AI and cloud computing data centers. |
Data Centers Cloud Infrastructure Investment Technology |
Auto InsuranceAuto insurance has a cycle, and currently appears to be at the top with rates at historically high levels and industry profitability rising rapidly. Progressive has managed through the post-pandemic period far better than rivals but entering a period where rate competition will lead to weaker profitability for all players. |
Insurance Cyclical Rates Competition Profitability | |
Private CreditThe rise of non-bank lenders means customers have more options for loans than they used to. A growing business no longer needs a local bank relationship to get a loan, creating increasing competition from private credit that affects traditional regional banks like M&T. |
Banking Competition Lending Disruption Growth | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump's tariff policies created significant market volatility, with the manager viewing the tariff plan as economically damaging. The manager believes exiting global trade agreements would lead to rising prices and weaker corporate profits, creating a less favorable investing environment. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Volatility Inflation |
InsuranceThe manager established positions in TWFG, an insurance agent platform, and added to Progressive. Climate change is disrupting traditional insurance models, creating opportunities for independent agents who can offer multiple coverage options rather than being tied to single carriers. |
Insurance Climate Independent Agents Coverage | |
HVACAaon manufactures semi-custom HVAC systems for commercial buildings and provides specialized liquid cooling for data centers. New energy-efficient refrigerant regulations narrowed the price gap between custom and mass-produced units, accelerating growth opportunities. |
HVAC Commercial Energy Refrigerant Cooling | |
HomebuildersBuilders FirstSource provides value-added services to homebuilders including off-site assembly that reduces labor and waste. The US faces long-term construction labor shortages, making these services increasingly valuable despite current obstacles to new home construction. |
Construction Labor Assembly Housing Materials | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIArtificial Intelligence data centers are driving massive investment in networking equipment, with Arista Networks benefiting as the leader in that sector. The market appears to see that AI data centers will require robust investment in networking equipment. |
Data Centers Networking Infrastructure Cloud Technology |
ConcentrationThe S&P 500 has become heavily concentrated with the Magnificent Seven tech stocks constituting 33.7% of total capitalization. This level of concentration where the top 10 constituents are about 40% of the Index's valuation is a 100-year high, reminiscent of the Nifty 50 era, dot com era, and summer of 1929. |
Market Structure Valuation Risk History Bubbles | |
Mid CapThe manager is focusing on midcap stocks knowing that over long periods, midcap stocks have outperformed large cap stocks. They have 29% of their portfolio invested in businesses with market capitalizations below $30 billion versus 7% for the Index. |
Size Premium Outperformance Allocation Strategy Returns | |
| 2024 Q3 |
QualityManager emphasizes owning highest-quality businesses helmed by owner-managers with deeply rooted interest in enterprise success. US corporate America has achieved exceptional returns on equity around 20% and profit margins exceeding 16%, compared to historical norms of 14% ROE and 10% margins. |
ROE Margins Owner-managers Business Quality Capital Returns |
EarningsStock prices are driven by earnings growth over the long term, with US corporate earnings growing at healthy rates. FactSet expects S&P 500 constituents to grow earnings over 50% from 2019-2024, about 8.7% annually, with 2025-2026 outlook anticipating more than 10% annual growth. |
Earnings Growth S&P 500 Corporate Performance Financial Returns | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI is driving significant performance in tech stocks, particularly benefiting Arista Networks as a key supplier of networking equipment to AI data centers. The manager acknowledges AI's importance while noting the concentrated nature of AI-driven returns in the market. |
Data Centers Networking Technology Growth |
Small CapsThe portfolio maintains 20% exposure to stocks under $16 billion market cap versus S&P 500's 2.2% exposure. The manager believes smaller, entrepreneurially managed businesses with growth potential should outperform over time despite current underperformance. |
Growth Value Entrepreneurial Undervalued | |
QualityThe manager focuses on high-quality companies that are intensively researched, with the portfolio having higher free cash flow yield, less debt, faster earnings growth, and similar PE multiples compared to the index when viewed as a conglomerate. |
Free Cash Flow Earnings Growth Balance Sheet Research | |
| 2024 Q1 |
QualityManager emphasizes owning high-quality businesses with strong management teams who have their own net worth invested alongside clients. The portfolio consists of companies that grow earnings faster than the S&P 500 while earning higher returns on capital and using less debt. Focus on businesses rather than trading pieces of paper. |
Quality Management Capital Earnings Returns |
ValueManager follows a value-oriented approach, seeking businesses trading below intrinsic value. Emphasizes the importance of duration in holding great companies until they are no longer great, rather than selling when they reach price targets. Avoids trimming winners too aggressively despite lofty PE multiples. |
Value Intrinsic Duration Multiples Holdings | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIArtificial Intelligence was a major topic in 2023, particularly generative AI machines like Google's Gemini and ChatGPT. The manager notes that companies selling server equipment for AI are benefiting from an explosion in investment spending from major tech companies, though these expenses may not always be recurring in the future. |
Artificial Intelligence Generative AI Servers Investment Spending |
ValueThe manager emphasizes a long-term value investing philosophy based on Warren Buffett's principles, focusing on buying quality companies at reasonable valuations. The approach involves thinking of stocks as owning businesses, maintaining a margin of safety, and remaining impervious to market fluctuations. |
Value Investing Quality Companies Margin of Safety Long-term | |
QualityThe portfolio focuses on exceptional companies with high sustainable margins, high returns on equity, good long-term prospects, and management by brilliant, honest, dedicated people. The manager avoids risky companies with too much debt or cyclicality. |
High Margins Returns on Equity Management Quality Sustainable Business | |
| 2023 Q3 |
TechnologyTech giants Alphabet and Meta drove 59% of portfolio returns, rising 75% through September. The seven largest tech stocks constituted 27% of the S&P 500 and accounted for 84% of the index's total return. These companies trade at demanding valuations with forward PE of 27.6x versus 17x for the rest of the index. |
Alphabet Meta Valuations Concentration Giants |
Small CapsThe manager prefers exposure to smaller businesses with less demanding valuations and room to grow. Over 30% of the portfolio is invested in companies with market caps below $22 billion, compared to 7% for the S&P 500. The focus is on midcaps with years of growth ahead. |
Midcaps Valuations Growth Exposure Opportunity | |
PaymentsEstablished new position in Fiserv, which provides payment processing services and banking technology. Fiserv's Clover system offers merchants faster transaction times and better fraud protection, with potential for double-digit growth despite small current market share. |
Fiserv Clover Processing Merchants Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | CSU.TO | Constellation Software Inc. | Software - Application | Systems Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI disruption, Canada, Data Repositories, ERP systems, Free Cash Flow, Mission-Critical Software, Small Business Software, switching costs, vertical market software | Login |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | AXP | American Express Company | Credit Services | Consumer Finance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | consumer finance, Millennial Growth, Premium credit cards, prime borrowers, return on equity, Rewards Programs, Status Brand, transaction fees | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | ANET | Arista Networks Inc. | Information Technology | Networking Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, data centers, hyperscalers, Networking, Software | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | SCHW | Charles Schwab Corp | Financials | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | assets, Brokerage, earnings growth, scale, wealth management | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | efficiency, Insurance, Margins, technology, underwriting | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | WSO | Watsco Inc | Industrials | Industrial Distribution | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Distribution, Efficiency Standards, HVAC, Margins, Replacement Cycle | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | ALGN | Align Technology Inc. | Health Care | Medical Devices | Bull | NASDAQ | clear aligners, Consumer-health, Medical devices, Orthodontics, recovery | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | KMX | CarMax Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Cyclical, Omni Channel, retail, scale, Used cars | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | CACC | Credit Acceptance Corp. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | Auto finance, Credit cycle, Returns, subprime lending, underwriting | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | FISV | Fiserv Inc. | Information Technology | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, Fintech, Payments, recurring revenue, switching costs | Login |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | MEDP US | Medpace Holdings, Inc. | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | buybacks, Clinical trials, founder-led, growth, healthcare, Margins, Transparency | Login |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | NVDA US | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bear | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, Hype, Margins, Risk, semiconductors, Sustainability, valuation | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc. | Financials | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Bull | NYSE | Expenses, growth, Insurance, specialty, underwriting | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | FISV | Fiserv Inc. | Other | - | Bull | NYSE | Banks, growth, Payments, Terminals, valuation | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | David M. Poppe | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. Class C | Communication Services | Internet Content & Information | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cloud, innovation, Search | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Financials | Regional Banks | Bear | NYSE | Buffalo, capital allocation, digital banking, loan growth, market share, Northeastern Markets, Private Credit, regional banks | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | PGR | Progressive Corporation | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | Auto Insurance, Cyclical, Management Quality, Position Sizing, Rate Competition, Record Earnings, Regulatory risk, Revenue Growth | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | Casualty Insurance, Commercial Property, efficiency, excess and surplus lines, Expense Structure, market overreaction, profit margins, specialty insurance | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | FI | Fiserv Inc | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Clover, distribution network, earnings growth, Forward Valuation, market overreaction, payment processing, regional banks, Technology Provider | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | TWFG | TWFG Inc. | Financials | Insurance Brokers | Bull | NASDAQ | Climate Change Impact, founder-led, Independent Agents, Insurance Technology, Personal Lines Insurance, Platform business, small-cap | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | AAON | AAON Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Commercial Buildings, data center cooling, Earnings Miss Opportunity, energy efficiency, HVAC systems, Regulatory tailwinds, Semi-Custom Manufacturing | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | BLDR | Builders FirstSource Inc. | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NASDAQ | Building Products Distribution, Construction Labor Shortage, Cyclical Value, Housing recovery, Off-Site Assembly, Share Buybacks, value-added services | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | NYSE | banking, capital deployment, Conservative, credit quality, financial services, market share, Overcapitalized, regional banks, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | AHT | Ashtead Group plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | LSE | capital efficiency, construction, Cyclical, duopoly, Equipment Rental, Industrial Equipment, market share gains, Skilled Labor Shortage, US | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | IBP | Installed Building Products, Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building Products, homebuilding, Housing Starts, Insulation, manufacturing, market share, Procurement, Scale Advantages, Subcontractor | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | FI | Fiserv, Inc. | Financials | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NYSE | banking technology, Clover, compounding, cross-selling, double-digit growth, Fintech, payment processing, regional banks | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | FERG | Ferguson plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NYSE | Acquisitions, construction, Distribution, Fragmented Industry, Free Cash Flow, Market Power, Plumbing Supplies, Scale Advantages | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | Commercial Insurance, Expense Structure, founder-led, growth, market share, small business, specialty insurance, technology platform | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | ALGN | Align Technology, Inc. | Health Care | Health Care Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | brand recognition, clear aligners, Consumer Preference, Healthcare Technology, Invisalign, market share, Orthodontics, R&D investment | Login |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | MEDP | Medpace Holdings, Inc. | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, Clinical trials, Cro, drug development, FDA, founder-led, life sciences, political uncertainty | Login |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | MEDP | Medpace Holdings | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, Clinical research, Cro, Drug Trials, FDA, founder-led, Healthcare services | Login |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | FIVE | Five Below Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bear | NASDAQ | CEO departure, Consumer Discretionary, Low-Income Consumer, margin compression, Specialty retail, Theft Issues, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | ERF.PA | Eurofins Scientific SE | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | Euronext Paris | contrarian, Europe, governance issues, Laboratory Testing, life sciences, Margin recovery, Share Buyback, Short-Seller Attack | Login |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | KMX | CarMax Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Neutral | NYSE | Auto finance, Consumer Discretionary, Cyclical Recovery, interest rate sensitivity, supply constraints, used car retail | Login |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | CIEN | Ciena Corporation | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bear | NASDAQ | Bear, Cloud computing, Communications Equipment, network infrastructure, supply chain, technology, Telecom | Login |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | SSNC | SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Application Software, Bear, capital allocation, financial services, Floating Rate Debt, Interest rates | Login |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | SCHW | The Charles Schwab Corporation | Financials | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | NYSE | Account Growth, Bull, Cash Sorting, Interest rates, Investment Banking & Brokerage, Pricing power, wealth management | Login |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | AHT.L | Ashtead Group plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | LSE | Bull, construction, Equipment Rental, Industrial, infrastructure, Scale Advantages, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | FISV | Fiserv Inc | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | banking technology, Bull, Clover, Data Processing, digital banking, Fintech, payment processing | Login |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Giverny Capital Asset Management | FERG.L | Ferguson plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | LSE | Bull, construction, Distribution, HVAC, market leadership, Plumbing Supplies, Pricing power | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| SCHW | Schwab, for example, earned $4.87 per share in 2025 and the consensus of Wall Street analysts calls for earnings per share, or EPS, of $7.62 in 2027. That would represent a two-year growth rate of 56%, or 25% per year. As of June 30th, the shares were down 8% for the year and trading at $92.27, or 12 times the 2027 EPS estimate. The Index trades for more than 20 times the forward estimate. We added to Schwab during the quarter, making it our third-largest position. During the quarter we added to Charles Schwab in two tranches at $92 and $85. |
| MA | Similarly, Wall Street analysts expect Mastercard to compound EPS by 15% over the next few years, roughly the same rate as the past 20 years. The stock was down 10% in the first half of 2026 and has lagged the Index over the past five years. |
| JPM | JP Morgan has compounded earnings in the low teens over the past decade, with growth accelerating recently, but the stock lags the market this year. |
| PGR | The consensus of Wall Street analysts says Progressive will report lower earnings this year than last, as auto insurance rates are in decline after years of rate inflation. Progressive's growth rate is indeed slowing, but for the first half of 2026 its EPS rose 7%. Despite this, the share price dropped 4% for the first half of the year. We added to our position in June. For the first time in years, Progressive has been buying back its stock. In June, we bought more Progressive at $205. |
| CSU.TO | In some cases, the market is saying that earnings may grow in the near term, but over time Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications are going to enable lower-cost competitors to enter the business. This speculative narrative has been true for Constellation Software, which we discussed in our last letter to you. This thesis will be tested over time, but for now Constellation continues to grow adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow per share by roughly 20% annually. The stock dropped 21% in the first half. |
| AAON | In May, we had a single day in which one of our holdings, AAON, Inc., reported strong earnings and saw its stock rise 31%, while another holding, Installed Building Products (IBP), reported mildly disappointing earnings and lost 28% of its value. AAON has a terrific business unit that makes cooling systems for data centers, where demand is strong. Upward we go! [Reality check: AAON subsequently gave back a fair amount of the one-day increase.] |
| IBP | On the other hand, IBP's primary business is installing fiberglass insulation into new home construction, and it has a large presence in the Northeast. Home construction overall is sluggish, and the Northeast had its harshest winter in years, making construction delays common. IBP's weaker volumes were not surprising, but the stock cratered. We expect IBP's shrewd management will respond to the lower valuation by buying back stock. |
| GOOGL | Our two largest positions are Alphabet and Arista, which I believe have strong positions in the emerging AI economy. Alphabet has a near monopoly in search, a robust cloud data center business, a leading computer chip used in AI data centers, a highly profitable asset in YouTube and the premier autonomous driving platform in Waymo. It has built a tremendous collection of assets. We trimmed Alphabet and Arista. We sold 17% of our position in Alphabet in April at about $380. Management subsequently sold $80 billion of stock in a secondary offering at $350 to raise money to fund more investment in data centers. I feel we did the responsible thing in trimming Alphabet as it got to nearly 12% of our portfolio. Arista and Alphabet remain our largest positions as of June 30. The valuations on both are high enough that future returns likely will be lower than we're used to, even if the businesses continue to grow. |
| ANET | Arista is the leading provider of networking equipment for hyperscale data centers. As AI traffic grows exponentially, data center owners increasingly need signal to move seamlessly not only within a given data center, but between data centers. The demands on the routers and switches that direct the flow of traffic are considerable. As the most sophisticated networking provider, Arista's growth may accelerate in coming years. We trimmed Alphabet and Arista. We sold about 20% of our position in Arista in April in two tranches at an average price of about $160. The stock finished the quarter higher than our sale price. Arista and Alphabet remain our largest positions as of June 30. The valuations on both are high enough that future returns likely will be lower than we're used to, even if the businesses continue to grow. |
| TSM | Our fourth-largest position is Taiwan Semiconductor, which is up nearly 100% since we bought it last summer. TSMC is the primary supplier of leading-edge computer chips for nearly every major technology company, from Nvidia to Broadcom to Apple. Its growth is also accelerating, with June revenue up 68% from a year earlier. |
| KNSL | During the quarter we added to our financial stocks. During the quarter we added to Kinsale in the mid-$330s. |
| META | Meta Platforms, Class A was listed as a bottom 5 contributor with ending weight of 5.1%, total return of -14.5%, and contribution to return of -1.0%. |
| TWFG | We used the proceeds of those sales to add to our financial stocks. During the quarter we added to TWFG, a consolidator of independent insurance agencies, at around $19. |
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