| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 16.7% | -6.1% | 4.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 4.5% | 30.2% |
Ithaka's concentrated growth strategy underperformed in Q4 2025, declining 5.9% gross versus the Russell 1000 Growth Index's 1.1% gain, as investors rotated away from high-growth technology names. Despite 93% of holdings beating top-line expectations and 86% beating bottom-line expectations, stock selection detracted 740 basis points from relative performance. The portfolio faced headwinds from AI valuation concerns and fears that software applications could be disintermediated by AI-native products. Key contributors included Intuitive Surgical's massive earnings beat, AMD's strong guidance for 35% revenue CAGR driven by new AI chip products, and Alphabet's sentiment shift from AI laggard to powerhouse. Major detractors included ServiceNow, Netflix, and Veeva Systems facing sector-specific pressures. The firm believes 2026 will mark the Show Me phase of AI, where productivity gains translate to tangible revenue growth. Management maintains conviction in concentrated positions within businesses demonstrating high probability of compounding economic value, staying fully invested in great growth stories despite near-term volatility.
Ithaka maintains a concentrated growth strategy focused on high-quality, rapidly growing companies with durable secular tailwinds, advantaged business models, and superior unit economics in large expanding markets, particularly benefiting from the AI revolution's transition from infrastructure buildout to productivity realization.
The firm expects 2026 to be the year of the Show Me phase of the AI cycle, where AI-driven revenue begins to offset massive capital expenditures. Management teams are reporting tangible productivity gains from AI implementation, suggesting the buildout is necessary foundation for a new era rather than excess. The main economic opportunities from AI are expected to broaden beyond infrastructure demand and migrate up the application stack. The firm chooses to stay fully invested and focused on creating wealth by owning great growth stories.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMD, AMZN, AVGO, BX, CRDO, ELF, GOOG, HWM, ISRG, LLY, META, MRVL, NFLX, NOW, ORCL, SHOP, TTD, UBER, VEEV | AI, concentrated, growth, large cap, technology |
ISRG AMD GOOG NOW VEEV |
The AI megatrend remains a vital secular tailwind with massive global investment providing significant economic buffer. 2026 will be the year of the Show Me phase where AI-driven revenue begins to offset massive capital expenditures. Companies are reporting tangible productivity gains from AI implementation across sectors, with examples including Uber's routing optimization, Howmet's manufacturing efficiency improvements, and Meta's conversion rate increases. AMD posted strong earnings and guided to 35% revenue CAGR driven by soon-to-be launched MI450 and MI500 series products, putting it in more direct competition with NVIDIA in rack scale architecture. The semiconductor sector continues to benefit from AI infrastructure buildout despite valuation concerns. Google Cloud Platform continues growing as part of Alphabet's diversified technology ecosystem. ServiceNow faces fears that software applications could be disintermediated by AI native products, driving multiple compression despite strong fundamental growth. Intuitive Surgical delivered massive earnings beat with da Vinci robotic surgical system continuing to generate high-margin recurring revenue from growing global installed base of 10,200 units. The MedTech sector has fallen out of favor with compressed valuations despite strong fundamentals. Netflix faced headwinds from surprise $83B bid to acquire Warner Bros Discovery requiring $50B in new debt, sparking leverage concerns and departure from traditional build-not-buy strategy. The company also faced $620M tax charge from Brazilian authorities dispute. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CMG, HOOD, ISRG, NOW, NVDA, SHOP | Artificial Intelligence, infrastructure, monetary policy, technology, valuation | - | The letter frames the U.S. market rally around an unprecedented AI-driven capital expenditure boom comparable to the Internet buildout, with AI infrastructure spending expected to reach up to $600B in 2025. While supportive of growth and equity valuations, it also raises concerns about potential overvaluation and circular funding structures. The Feds rate cuts and fiscal stimulus have further fueled liquidity, reinforcing equity momentum but leaving markets vulnerable to policy shifts. |
| Jul 22 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, CRM, LLY, MSFT, NOW, NVDA | Competitive Advantage, fundamentals, growth, secular trends, volatility |
NVDA MSFT NOW AAPL LLY CRM |
The commentary focuses on owning durable U.S. growth businesses with long runways supported by secular demand and strong competitive positions. Management highlights disciplined valuation awareness despite a growth-oriented mandate. Volatility is viewed as an opportunity to add to high-quality franchises at more attractive entry points. |
| Apr 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | NOW, NVDA, PLTR, TTD, UBER, V | - | - | |
| Jan 14 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMD, AMZN, ASML, NOW, PLTR, UBER | - | - | |
| Oct 16 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ASML, BX, DXCM, ELF, MA, NOW | - | - | |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, CRM, DXCM, NVDA, VEEV | - | - | |
| May 7 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, LULU, MSFT, NVDA | - | - | |
| Nov 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 20 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMZN, MELI, MSFT, NVDA, PODD, PYPL | - | - | |
| Apr 18 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CRM, DXCM, ISRG, MSFT, NVDA, SNOW | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CloudAmazon's positioning to benefit from both infrastructure and application layers of AI is highlighted. The company's logistical prowess represents one of the foremost moats in business and will be enhanced with AI through better orchestration of logistics assets and buildout of more sophisticated robotics. |
Infrastructure Logistics Automation Efficiency Coordination | |
Medical DevicesHoldings include Ceribell for portable EEG technology and Stevanato Group for pharmaceutical packaging. Ceribell surged 91% after FDA clearance for neonatal applications, while Stevanato faced conservative guidance despite beating expectations. |
EEG Technology FDA Clearance Pharmaceutical Packaging Medical Technology Healthcare Innovation | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable | |
StreamingNetflix represents the fund's exposure to global streaming entertainment, despite near-term headwinds from subscriber growth concerns and content spending. The fund continues to view Netflix as the dominant global streaming platform with durable competitive advantages through its content library, technology infrastructure, and growing advertising business. |
Content Global Advertising Platform Entertainment | |
| 2025 Q3 |
InfrastructureFiera Capital enhanced capabilities in infrastructure as a segment where they have deep expertise and privileged access to opportunities. This represents a strategic focus area for capital allocation. |
Infrastructure Private Markets Capabilities |
| 2025 Q2 |
Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CUDA, data center, GPUs, infrastructure | Login |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Azure, Beat And Raise, cloud, growth, productivity | Login |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | NOW | ServiceNow, Inc. | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Automation, Government Spending, ITSM, resilience, Workflow | Login |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | AAPL | Apple Inc. | Information Technology | Technology Hardware | Bear | NASDAQ | AI lag, China, exit, services, tariffs | Login |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Diabetes, duopoly, GLP-1, Obesity, pipeline | Login |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | CRM | Salesforce, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Agentforce, AI monetization, cloud, CRM, Subscription | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | Health Care | Health Care Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | healthcare, Margins, Recurringrevenue, robotics, Surgery | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, datacenters, GPUs, growth, semiconductors | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cloud, Networkeffects, Platforms | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | NOW | ServiceNow, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Automation, SaaS, valuation, Workflow | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Scott O'Gorman | VEEV | Veeva Systems Inc. Class A | Health Care | Health Care Technology | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Competition, CRM, lifesciences, SaaS | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| AVGO | The primary contributors to its performance were our exposures to Broadcom |
| BX | Blackstone declined. The world's leading alternative asset managers, such as Blackstone, also declined in 2025. We also right-sized our positions in Blackstone – both of which remain in Montaka's top 10. |
| CRDO | During the quarter, we initiated a position in Credo Technology. Credo is a high-growth semiconductor company that we view as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
| ELF | e.l.f. Beauty's earnings report included a decline in core domestic sales growth and fiscal year guidance below expectations. We continue to hold the stock, as the company offers a strong product set addressing a favorable spending category, though additional progress is needed to restore positive fundamental and share-price performance. |
| GOOG | From the moment OpenAI hit the scene with ChatGPT 3.5 in the Fall of 2022, Google was a perceived loser and thousands of pontificators warned about the end of search. Fast forward three years and this was Google Search's fastest quarter of revenue growth since Q1 2022, when the reopening and pandemic were still considerable drivers of results. In parallel with the Search re-acceleration, Google has also emerged as a leader in AI itself. This combination has been potent for Google's stock and could not have opened on Search alone, given the terminal value fears. |
| HWM | RTX and Howmet extended gains as commercial aerospace demand remained strong and defense spending stayed elevated amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, supporting backlog strength and long-cycle earnings durability |
| ISRG | ISRG shares appreciated in the fourth quarter after the company delivered strong Q3 results highlighting continued procedure growth and accelerating system placements. Procedure volumes rose in the mid-teens globally, with notable strength in general surgery and urology, while recurring instrument and accessory revenue grew faster than expectations. Management also reported that the early rollout of its next-generation robotic platform was tracking ahead of schedule, with utilization metrics trending positively across beta sites. |
| LLY | Eli Lilly shares were a top performer in 4Q25 after delivering strong Q3 2025 earnings in October. Revenue rose 54% year-over-year to $17.6 billion, and adjusted EPS of $7.02 beat consensus of $6.02. Growth was driven by its GLP-1 franchises, Mounjaro and Zepbound, where sales more than doubled year-over-year, alongside strength in other therapeutic areas. Management raised full-year guidance for both revenue and earnings, reinforcing investor confidence in the company's growth outlook. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MRVL | We also initiated a position in Marvell Technology which is a fabless semiconductor company that supplies technology necessary to move, store, process and secure data across various end-markets such as data centers, enterprise networks and telecommunications infrastructure. We believe the risk/reward looks compelling and we elected to start a position on the stock's recent pullback. |
| NFLX | NFLX was the portfolio's largest detractor in 4Q25 following investor concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending. While revenue grew approximately 10% year-over-year, management guided to slower net subscriber additions in North America and Europe after recent price increases, and margins were pressured by elevated investment in live sports and international content. |
| NOW | In the case of ServiceNow, the stock weakened following reports of a potential large acquisition while the company has also been challenged by bearish sentiment across the software as a service or SAAS segment. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| SHOP | Shopify Inc. is a cloud-based software provider for multi-channel commerce. Shares rose 8.3% in the fourth quarter, finishing 2025 up 51.1% on strong financial results that outperformed Street expectations. The company is demonstrating rapid growth at scale with gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenues each growing over 30% year-on-year. |
| TTD | Communication Services also detracted from relative performance, driven by early-year weakness in The Trade Desk (TTD). The company, one of the world's largest independent demand-side advertising platforms, faced its first revenue miss in more than eight years and issued softer-than-consensus expected guidance. These challenges were compounded by disruptions from a sales reorganization and slower adoption of its new AI-powered platform, Kokai. |
| UBER | UBER was a detractor in the fourth quarter following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, which delivered strong operating performance but was met with a muted market reaction. Gross Bookings and adjusted EBITDA both came in near the high end of management's guidance, driven by accelerating demand across both Mobility and Delivery. However, investor focus shifted to commentary around reduced margin expansion as the company steps up investment in growth initiatives, including autonomous vehicle partnerships, platform innovation, and commerce expansion. |
| VEEV | Veeva Systems Inc. provides industry cloud solutions to the global life sciences industry. The company delivered solid fiscal third-quarter results and issued guidance above the Street. Veeva management reiterated confidence in achieving its 2030 financial targets, maintaining that the current focus on competitive dynamics with Salesforce.com in the customer relationship management (CRM) market (20% of Veeva's total revenues) does not undermine its long-term trajectory. Despite these positives, the stock sold off by -25% on competitive concerns in the CRM market as Veeva projected lower Vault CRM customer versus its initial expectations. |
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