| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 16.1% | 5.6% | 28.4% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.4% | 14.4% | 36.0% | -9.3% | -1.5% |
White Falcon delivered strong performance in 2025 with 28.4% net returns, driven by a concentrated portfolio of quality companies trading at attractive valuations. The fund's rolling three-year annualized return now stands at 25.9% CAGR, significantly outperforming major indices. Key contributors included precious metals royalty companies that gained from gold's 64% and silver's 146% appreciation, semiconductor leader AMD positioned for AI growth, and contrarian positions in solar and specialty chemicals. The manager maintains conviction in holdings where fundamentals have strengthened despite flat stock prices, creating wider gaps between intrinsic value and market price. While acknowledging elevated market valuations and frothy conditions in AI and other sectors, the strategy focuses on turning volatility into opportunity through disciplined stock selection. The portfolio includes defensive positioning in housing-related stocks and maintains smaller position sizes in fully valued names to balance risk management with long-term compounding potential. The manager emphasizes that yearly performance is less relevant than full-cycle returns and remains focused on absolute returns rather than benchmark tracking.
White Falcon employs a concentrated value investing approach, constructing a portfolio of 20-25 quality stocks that meet strict valuation criteria, with the primary goal of generating positive absolute returns over complete market cycles rather than tracking any particular index.
The manager believes the portfolio remains well-positioned with healthy underlying businesses, attractive valuations, and disciplined risk management. While acknowledging elevated market valuations and frothy conditions in some sectors, the focus remains on intrinsic value and taking advantage of market structure that creates opportunities for active managers.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AFN.TO, AMD, AMZN, ATZ.TO, CSIQ, EPAM, FNV, GRFS, HUN, NFI.TO, NU, RGLD, RTO.L, TFPM, W | AI, Chemicals, Cyclical, gold, semiconductors, Solar, technology, value |
AMD EPAM NU NFI HUN |
AMD is positioned as a high-performance computing leader that has taken market share from Intel and emerged as credible No. 2 in GPUs behind Nvidia.… |
| Oct 20 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AFN CN, DAVA, FNV | Agriculture, Artificial Intelligence, gold, Industrial Recovery, Value Investing |
FNV CN FNV CN TFPM CN SSL CN AMD NFI CN NU EPAM DAVA AFN CN |
White Falcon delivered strong returns driven by gold royalty companies and core holdings in financials and technology. The fund maintains a disciplined value approach while… |
| Jul 16 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ATZ CN, DAVA, EPAM, RGLD, SSL CN, TIXT, W | asymmetry, Compounding, dislocations, Value Investing, volatility | - | The letter frames market volatility, particularly tariff-induced swings, as a source of opportunity rather than risk. Management highlights buying quality businesses with asymmetric risk-reward profiles… |
| Apr 21 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CTS CN, DAVA, EPAM, GRF SM | - | - | - |
| Jan 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMD, EPAM, NFI CN, NU, PRGO, VALE3 BZ | - | - | - |
| Oct 21 2024 | 2024 Q3 | DAVA, EPAM, NU | - | - | - |
| Jul 17 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ATZ CN, RTO | - | - | - |
| Apr 29 2024 | 2024 Q1 | CTS CN, DAVA, LFCR | - | - | - |
| Jan 17 2024 | 2023 Q4 | 5Z5 GR, AMD, CTS CN, NU, ROVR | - | - | - |
| Dec 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AMD, AMZN, NU, ROVR, TECK | - | - | - |
| Dec 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMD, AMZN, EPAM, NU, TECK, WPM | - | - | - |
| Apr 18 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AMD, DCBO, DSEY | - | - | - |
| Oct 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | AMD, CPLFF, DSEY, EPAM, FTCH, Gold, MAXR, Precious Metals | - | - | - |
| Oct 16 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 14 2022 | 2022 Q2 | 5Z5 GR, AMZN, CPLF CN, CTS CN, EPAM, NU | - | - | - |
| Dec 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
GoldGold experienced its best annual return since 1979 driven by seemingly insatiable appetite, entering bubble territory. The precious metal drove the Small Resources index to a 45.3% increase in the December half. |
Gold Precious Metals Bubble Resources | |
SemiconductorsTaiwan Semiconductor represents the dominant manufacturer for leading fabless chip designers including NVIDIA, Apple, and Broadcom. The global arms race to develop artificial general intelligence will support multiple years of robust growth for foundries with leading-edge capabilities. |
Foundries Advanced Process AI Chips Manufacturing Technology Leadership | |
SolarSolar has quietly become the cheapest source of power in many places without subsidies. Canadian Solar was trading at roughly a quarter of its sum-of-the-parts value due to depressed sentiment. Solar stocks have become AI beneficiaries as solar plus storage is seen as viable option to supply clean power to datacenters. |
Energy Storage Power Generation Datacenters Clean Energy Valuation | |
Specialty ChemicalsIMCD and Symrise were added as new positions in the specialty chemicals space. IMCD is a global leader in marketing and distribution of specialty chemicals with significant pricing power and demand inelasticity. Symrise leads in flavors, fragrances, and specialty ingredients with renewed focus on profitability and cash flow showing early signs of operational inflection. |
Distribution Flavors Fragrances Pricing Power Specialty Ingredients | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
GoldGold experienced its best annual return since 1979 driven by seemingly insatiable appetite, entering bubble territory. The precious metal drove the Small Resources index to a 45.3% increase in the December half. |
Gold Precious Metals Bubble Resources | |
| 2025 Q2 |
VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | FNV CN | Franco-Nevada Corp. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | TSX | balance sheet, compounding, Gold, inflation hedge, Margins, Optionality, royalties | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | FNV CN | Franco-Nevada Corp. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | NYSE | balance sheet, compounding, Gold, inflation hedge, Margins, Optionality, royalties | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | TFPM CN | Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | NYSE | compounding, diversification, FCF, Gold, royalties, Streaming | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | SSL CN | Sandstorm Gold Ltd. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, deleveraging, Gold, inflation hedge, leverage, royalties | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, data centers, growth, innovation, Margins, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NFI CN | NFI Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automobiles | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, Electrification, EV, Public transit, Transportation, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd. | Financials | Fintech | Bull | NYSE | digital banking, Fintech, growth, Latin America, ROE, Scalability | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | EPAM | EPAM Systems Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bear | NYSE | AI, Consulting, Digital, IT services, Margins, transformation | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | DAVA | Endava Plc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bear | NYSE | AI, Digital transformation, Execution, financial services, IT services, risk management | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | AFN CN | Ag Growth International Inc. | Industrials | Farm & Heavy Machinery | Bull | NYSE | agriculture, deleveraging, Equipment, growth, ROIC, valuation | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, datacenters, GPUs, marketshare, semiconductors | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | EPAM | EPAM Systems, Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, cloud, Digitaltransformation, Itservices, productivity | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | compounding, Digitalbanking, Fintech, growth, LatAm | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NFI | NFI Group Inc. | Industrials | Commercial Vehicles | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | backlog, Cyclicals, deleveraging, Evbuses, infrastructure | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | HUN | Huntsman Corporation | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Chemicals, Cyclicals, Housing, Operatingleverage, restructuring | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AFN.TO | We also hold a number of positions whose fundamentals strengthened even though their market prices remained essentially unchanged for the year. This includes our positions in Amazon (AMZN), Rentokil (RTO), Ag Growth (AFN), EPAM and Grifols (GRFS). That widening gap between intrinsic value and market price strengthens our conviction and positions us well for when fundamentals ultimately assert themselves. |
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| AMZN | We added to our holdings in Amazon.com Inc. |
| ATZ.TO | Aritzia Inc. is a specialty retailer focused on providing women and men, via the smaller Reigning Champ brand, with access to uniquely designed Everyday Luxury clothing from casual to formal needs. They bring a relentless product and sourcing focus into aspirational environments with a premium and service-oriented retail experience that is increasingly supported by a robust omnichannel platform. After building a loyal customer base in Canada for more than twenty years, Aritzia expanded into the U.S. and has seen accelerating growth since 2020. We initiated our investment in Aritzia in late 2023 when earnings were temporarily depressed by global supply chain and inflationary pressures. Since then, management has strengthened the sourcing organization, enabling Aritzia to get back to providing consumers with unique and desired fashions. Execution since then has been impressive. Accelerating growth across its retail locations, e-commerce, and international markets has driven higher profitability while offsetting tariff-related costs, all while holding the line on prices. During the quarter, the stock delivered strong returns as growth further accelerated into the 2025 holiday season, and Aritzia continued to expand its customer base with new U.S. locations. We reduced the position slightly in the quarter to manage our position size, given the strong returns. |
| CSIQ | One such name this year was Canadian Solar (CSIQ). Ordinarily, a solar stock wouldn't even make our list. But as I dug deeper, a few things stood out: (1) Solar has quietly become the cheapest source of power in many places around the world (without subsidies), (2) Panel manufacturing remains brutally competitive, but the stronger players are shifting toward full systems (including batteries), (3) Canadian Solar had a JV with Blackrock to build a power company, and (4) while Canadian Solar has most of its manufacturing in China, it was founded by a Canadian engineer who understands governance and transparency. What ultimately pushed us to take a position was the valuation: the company was trading at roughly a quarter of its sum‑of‑the‑parts (SOTP) value. We have a cost base of under $10 per share while the stock touched a high of $30 before retrenching back to $20 per share. Today, solar stocks have become AI beneficiaries as solar plus storage is seen as a viable option to supply clean power to datacenters. |
| EPAM | After a challenging early-year period with tariff uncertainty impacting end demand, EPAM reported better than expected results and raised its initial guidance for 2025. Additionally, EPAM announced an extension to its share buyback program of ~$1bn, sending a positive signal on the strength of its business in the long term. |
| FNV | Our three precious metals holdings in Royal Gold (RGLD), Triple Flag (TFPM) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) were responsible for a third of our gains this year. It has been a fascinating year for precious metals with gold up 64% and silver up 146% for the year! As we've discussed previously, our allocation to these companies was intended to serve as a hedge against macroeconomic volatility. This is likely the most fully valued part of the portfolio due to which our allocation to this basket is at the lower end of our targeted 10-15% allocation. |
| GRFS | Further, select holdings in the sector declined, namely Utah Medical Products and Grifols |
| HUN | Huntsman is a global specialty chemicals company headquartered in the Woodlands, Texas, operating more than 60 facilities in 25+ countries with ~7,000 employees. Huntsman has undergone a strategic transformation, evolving from its origins as a widely diversified chemical conglomerate into a highly focused operator of specialty chemicals. The global MDI market is currently characterized by a supply glut that is exerting significant pricing pressure. Looking ahead to 2026, consensus estimates that revenue is projected to be relatively flat at $5.75 billion while EBITDA is expected to recover to $342 million. In a bull case, normalized EBITDA could reach $700 million or above (given cost cuts). Applying a 10x multiple to an $700 million recovery EBITDA would imply a stock price of $35+ per share. |
| NFI.TO | New Flyer Industries (NFI) manufactures buses in North America and operates in a duopolistic industry structure. The story of NFI has been two steps forward and one step back as the supply chain in this segment of manufacturing is so complicated that one weak link can uptrend supplies to the customer. We believe that the worst is behind and going forward, NFI can grow intrinsic value due to (1) strong backlog, (2) strong earnings power with increasing exposure to EV buses, and (3) debt paydown. NFI currently trades at 11x this year's earnings and we think it can re-rate to 15-20x within the next two years as it executes on its backlog and pays down debt. If this happens, NFI has a 50-100% upside from current levels. |
| NU | Since our mid-year update, Nubank's shares increased 37%, bringing full-year performance to +63%. This performance has been driven primarily by fundamentals, with earnings growing approximately 42% over the same period. Brazil remains a powerful profit engine, with high customer engagement, improving risk-adjusted returns, and expanding penetration across consumer and SME banking. Mexico continues to emerge as the next major growth vector: customer penetration has reached ~14% of the population. |
| RGLD | Our three precious metals holdings in Royal Gold (RGLD), Triple Flag (TFPM) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) were responsible for a third of our gains this year. It has been a fascinating year for precious metals with gold up 64% and silver up 146% for the year! As we've discussed previously, our allocation to these companies was intended to serve as a hedge against macroeconomic volatility. This is likely the most fully valued part of the portfolio due to which our allocation to this basket is at the lower end of our targeted 10-15% allocation. |
| RTO.L | We also hold a number of positions whose fundamentals strengthened even though their market prices remained essentially unchanged for the year. This includes our positions in Amazon (AMZN), Rentokil (RTO), Ag Growth (AFN), EPAM and Grifols (GRFS). That widening gap between intrinsic value and market price strengthens our conviction and positions us well for when fundamentals ultimately assert themselves. |
| TFPM | Our three precious metals holdings in Royal Gold (RGLD), Triple Flag (TFPM) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) were responsible for a third of our gains this year. It has been a fascinating year for precious metals with gold up 64% and silver up 146% for the year! As we've discussed previously, our allocation to these companies was intended to serve as a hedge against macroeconomic volatility. This is likely the most fully valued part of the portfolio due to which our allocation to this basket is at the lower end of our targeted 10-15% allocation. |
| W | Last quarter, we highlighted that Wayfair's Q2 results were the strongest we had seen in several years and supported our thesis that the business was positioned for a meaningful rebound as the home furnishings market recovered. Q3 built on that momentum. Revenue grew 9% year over year, accelerating from 6% in Q2, while adjusted EBITDA increased more than 70% year over year. These results provide further evidence that Wayfair's future profit growth remains substantial and is materially underappreciated by the market. Wayfair continues to be a top five holding. |
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