| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The manager argues against market predictions, particularly those based on politics or macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing that forecasting is an expensive distraction. While acknowledging current market valuations are expensive by historical standards, they contend the environment differs significantly from the 1999 internet bubble. Technology companies have doubled net income over four years and grown earnings 550% since 2008, contrasting with the dot-com era when 74% of internet companies had negative cash flows. NVIDIA trades at 40 times earnings versus Cisco's 200 times at the 2000 peak. The manager expects normal 10-15% corrections in 2026, typical for midterm election years, but distinguishes this from true bear markets. Key concerns include record margin debt up 36% year-over-year and explosive growth in retail options trading. Long-term demographic trends like declining marriage rates and deteriorating educational outcomes pose greater threats than market volatility. The core message advocates for patient, disciplined investing over speculation, emphasizing that compound interest rewards those who understand it while punishing those who attempt to game market timing.
Market predictions are futile and should be ignored in favor of long-term buy-and-hold investing, as current AI and technology valuations represent a sustainable trend backed by strong profitability rather than a speculative bubble like 1999.
The manager expects normal market corrections of 10-15% in 2026 but distinguishes this from a true bear market or bubble. Long-term investing through buy-and-hold compounding remains more reliable than predictions or clever trades. The focus should be on demographic trends and education rather than trying to time market movements.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | COST, CSCO, NVDA, WMT | AI, Bitcoin, demographics, Leverage, Options, Predictions, technology, Valuations | - | The manager extensively compares current AI valuations to the 1999 internet bubble, arguing AI represents a trend rather than a fad. Technology companies have doubled… |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Capitalism, Entrepreneurship, Equity Markets, Financial Education, Retail Investors | - | The letter portrays a cultural embrace of shareholder capitalism, noting retail participation and stock ownership reaching record highs. It warns against speculative excess but celebrates… |
| Aug 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Derivatives, market psychology, retail trading, Speculation, volatility | - | The commentary discusses the rise of speculative behavior across equities, crypto, derivatives, and retail trading. Management contrasts speculation with disciplined long-term investing and highlights volatility… |
| Apr 19 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| May 1 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 26 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Nov 22 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
| 2025 Q3 |
ChinaChina's economic rebalancing appears to be moving forward. Market liquidity, anti-involution and a measured consumer policy are likely to drive a sustained market performance in 4Q. Fiscal support and ongoing reforms in China is supportive of a stronger currency. |
Growth Policy Currency |
| 2025 Q2 |
SpeculationMarkets are experiencing extreme speculation with vibe investing replacing fundamental analysis. Assets are priced on fantastical stories rather than cash flows, with leveraged ETFs, retail options trading, and story stocks reaching bubble-like levels. This madness can only end in disaster. |
Bubble Options Leverage Stories Excess |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| COST | Costco and Amazon are perhaps the clearest examples |
| CSCO | It took Cisco, the leading provider of internet equipment and briefly the world's most valuable company, a quarter of a century and another technology bubble to regain its peak. |
| NVDA | Capital spending from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and more have led to Nvidia becoming the Rrst 5 trillion market cap company. |
| WMT | For insight into the real economy operating beneath this AI and data center boom, we must look elsewhere within the S&P 500, including bellwethers like Walmart |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
