| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Lansing Street Advisors views 2026 as a year of maximum confusion driven by three primary factors: the Iran conflict disrupting global supply chains and freezing Fed policy, a private credit sector bear market with rising defaults and liquidity pressures, and an AI-driven technology repricing eliminating the Magnificent 7 premium. The Iran war triggered oil price increases of 35% and broader commodity inflation, while private credit faces its first real test with 9.2% default rates and withdrawal pressures on semi-liquid funds. Technology sub-sectors are in bear markets, with software down 33% as AI tools threaten SaaS business models. However, the manager emphasizes that confusion differs from catastrophe, noting that midterm election years historically produce corrections averaging 17% but generate positive returns the following year. The private credit crisis represents only 3% of total U.S. debt versus 60% for mortgages in 2008, limiting systemic risk. Despite ranking these as the top three risks for 2026, the manager maintains that volatility creates opportunities for patient investors who stay the course.
Despite significant geopolitical, credit, and technology sector headwinds creating maximum confusion in 2026, historical patterns suggest current volatility represents buying opportunities rather than systemic crisis, with American business fundamentals remaining intact.
Expects volatility to remain elevated through 2026 due to midterm elections and new Fed chair appointment. Ranks Iran war as third on 2026 risk scale behind private equity/credit bear market at second and AI buildout uncertainty as top risk. Maintains that confusion is not catastrophe and volatility is not a bear market.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, energy, geopolitics, Iran, private credit, rates, technology, volatility | - | Maximum confusion defines 2026 with Iran war driving commodity inflation, private credit facing first bear market with 9.2% defaults, and AI disrupting technology valuations. Despite geopolitical tensions, credit stress, and tech repricing eliminating Magnificent 7 premium, historical patterns suggest current volatility creates buying opportunities rather than systemic crisis for patient investors. |
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | COST, CSCO, NVDA, WMT | AI, Bitcoin, demographics, Leverage, Options, Predictions, technology, Valuations | - | Market predictions are futile distractions that should be ignored in favor of long-term buy-and-hold investing. Current AI and technology valuations represent sustainable trends backed by strong earnings growth, not a 1999-style bubble. Normal corrections are expected in 2026, but demographic decline and educational deterioration pose greater long-term risks than market volatility. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | HOOD | Capital markets, crypto, Retail Investing, Risk Appetite, Shareholder Capitalism, Speculation, Stock Ownership, US Markets | - | America's speculative markets mirror Rolling Stones' Tumbling Dice, blending gambling with investing in a degenerate economy. Despite short-term volatility from crypto and quantum bubbles, US shareholder capitalism dominance continues expanding with record retail participation and the bottom 50% quadrupling stock holdings since 2020, providing sustainable competitive advantages over global peers. |
| Aug 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Bubbles, crypto, innovation, rates, Speculation, Valuations, volatility | - | Lansing Street sees a uniquely American speculation economy with AI, crypto, and unprecedented risk-taking that may dwarf the dot-com bubble. Despite stretched valuations and $1 trillion margin debt, the bull market remains intact with significant upside potential driven by deregulation, productivity gains, and institutionalization. U.S. equities offer the best long-term returns globally. |
| Apr 19 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | American Exceptionalism, crypto, demographics, diversification, international, Trade Policy, Valuations | - | American exceptionalism faces challenges but remains structurally sound despite policy uncertainty and market volatility. Valuations have improved to attractive levels while diversification finally pays off after years of Magnificent Seven dominance. Real threats are demographic and social rather than economic, with immigration advantages and corporate adaptability continuing to differentiate America from struggling international competitors facing deeper structural problems. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, NVDA | Bonds, demographics, Europe, Government, Immigration, private equity, small caps | - | Topley abandons predictions to pose 10 structural questions about markets and society. Private equity's explosive growth may have permanently damaged small-cap stocks and IPO markets. Demographics favor America over declining populations in China and Europe, but immigration policy remains contentious. Buffett's cash hoarding, speculative market conditions, and bond market struggles signal potential inflection points ahead. |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | China, Data centers, demographics, geopolitics, Onshoring, Russia | - | Communist economic policies in China and Russia are failing due to demographic decline, talent flight, and capital outflows. The US dominates through superior data infrastructure, immigration attraction, and innovation culture. Global trend favors free-market capitalism as Japan and India implement reforms while China tightens state control over economy and education. |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, CSCO, F, NVDA, YHOO | Commercial real estate, Deglobalization, Fed policy, Market Highs, rates, technology, Valuations | - | Despite macro headwinds including rate hikes, yield curve inversion, and geopolitical conflicts, U.S. markets hit new highs driven by profitable tech companies, unlike the 1999 bubble. Current valuations are more reasonable with the Magnificent 7 at 30x earnings versus 47x in 2000. Key risks include $1 trillion in maturing commercial real estate debt requiring potential Fed intervention. |
| May 1 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | demographics, Economy, Entrepreneurship, infrastructure, productivity, US | - | US economy shows exceptional resilience with record productivity, entrepreneurial surge, and $90 trillion generational wealth transfer ahead. Despite 90th percentile valuations, substantial cash reserves and moderate leverage suggest no traditional bubble. Infrastructure spending and potential money market rotation provide upside catalysts. Primary risk is persistently high interest rates threatening expansion. |
| Jan 26 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA | AI, large cap, Magnificent Seven, Speculation, technology, US | - | American economic dominance persists with technology stocks driving extraordinary market concentration through AI hype. The Magnificent Seven achieved market cap three times larger than entire small-cap market, but sustainability is questionable with only one showing 25%+ growth. Manager presents contrarian 2024 scenarios including tech leadership reversal while maintaining confidence in long-term US economic superiority. |
| Nov 22 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, C, ICLN, LIT, TAN, TSLA | Bonds, Concentration, Energy Transition, interest rates, technology, Valuations | - | Market concentration in seven stocks masks broad weakness with 493 S&P names flat while bonds face historic third year of losses. This creates opportunity as non-tech stocks trade below 25-year averages and bonds reach attractive valuations. Rising rates challenge growth financing but enhance bond appeal with 10% high-yield coupons emerging. |
| - | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, QQQ | Behavioral Finance, demographics, Government Spending, interest rates, Market Concentration, technology | - | Lansing Street Advisors highlights extreme market concentration with seven companies comprising over 50% of the Nasdaq 100 after a record first-half rally. The firm emphasizes $2 trillion in government spending driving manufacturing growth and foreign investment, while noting the end of the 40-year interest rate decline and demographic shifts favoring southern US states. |
| - | 2023 Q1 | ARKK, QQQ, RPV, XLK | Banking, crypto, Federal Reserve, interest rates, Speculation, technology, value | - | The Fed's rate hurricane triggered a banking crisis that paradoxically drove speculation back into tech stocks and crypto. QQQ outperformed value by 22.7% in Q1 while Bitcoin rallied 72%. With $5.1 trillion parked in money markets and accounting fraud at 40-year highs, this resembles the 1999-2000 bubble's multiple false rallies before the final bottom. |
| - | 2022 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, CSCO, GOOGL, INTC, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA | Bonds, Bubbles, dividends, Fed policy, inflation, international, Mean reversion, value | - | Fed rate hikes successfully popped bubbles in crypto, SPACs, and tech while reducing inflation by 50%. Markets now sit at 25-year average valuations, creating opportunities in dividends, bonds, and international stocks. The manager expects mean reversion to drive new leadership away from 2012-2022 winners toward previously overlooked areas offering better risk-adjusted returns. |
| - | 2022 Q3 | CSCO, INTC | Bear Market, Bonds, Fed, inflation, Recession, Valuations | - | Historic 2022 stock-bond crash has reset valuations to attractive levels despite maximum investor fear. S&P at 25-year median valuation, small-caps and international stocks cheaper. Inflation peaking as GROG components moderate. Fed near done hiking with bonds offering 4% yields. History shows 25%+ corrections lead to positive 3-5 year returns for patient contrarian investors. |
| - | 2022 Q2 | COIN, WYNN | Bear Market, Bonds, Cash, consumer, inflation, Recession, Speculation, Valuations | - | Lansing Street sees 2022's market reset as healthy purging of speculation rather than systemic crisis. Despite GROG inflation pressures, valuations have corrected to more reasonable levels with S&P P/E below 25-year median and bond yields significantly higher. Record household cash and low unemployment provide recession cushion, suggesting much downside already priced in. |
| - | 2022 Q1 | - | Bonds, commodities, Fed policy, inflation, interest rates, real estate, Recession, value | - | The 40-year bond bull market has ended due to inflation, but rising rates historically don't crash stocks immediately. Manager recommends diversifying beyond 60/40 portfolios into inflation hedges like commodities and private real estate while maintaining equity exposure. Despite expecting eventual recession and continued volatility, emphasizes dollar-cost averaging during corrections and long-term U.S. market optimism. |
| - | 2021 Q4 | - | Bubbles, emerging markets, Fed policy, rates, Speculation, Valuations, value | - | Market valuations at bubble-era highs signal lower future returns, but value stocks and emerging markets offer opportunities as Fed rate hikes favor cyclical sectors over expensive growth. Speculative excess evident in crypto celebrity endorsements and record insider selling suggests caution warranted despite American economy's continued strength. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Private CreditPrivate credit sector facing first real test with rising defaults, withdrawal pressures, and liquidity concerns. Tricolor Holdings and FirstBrands Group defaults raised red flags about underwriting standards. Withdrawal requests increasing amid semi-liquid structure with 5% quarterly caps. |
Credit Stress Liquidity BDC Specialty Finance Alternative Asset Managers |
AIAI tools demonstrating potential as genuine threat to software-as-a-service subscription models, triggering the SaaS apocalypse. Market skeptical of hyper-scalers massive AI spending without evidence of immediate revenue growth. AI remains a known unknown with unclear winners and losers. |
SaaS Cloud Enterprise Software Data & Analytics Dev Tools | |
OilIran conflict triggered closure of Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher by roughly 35%. Energy stocks outperforming technology stocks on one-year basis and closing in on three-year outperformance. Oil prices unlikely to reset to recent lows under any uneasy peace agreement. |
Exploration & Production Integrated Oil & Gas Oil Services Refiners Energy Trading | |
RatesFed now frozen with almost no chance of rate cuts in 2026 due to Iran conflict driving commodity prices higher. Higher probability of rate hike than cut as of March 2026. Rising interest rates creating perfect storm for private credit sector stress. |
Inflation Liquidity Volatility | |
SemiconductorsTechnology sub-sectors in bear markets with software down 33%, cybersecurity down 20%, and SaaS down 33%. Technology stocks forward P/E multiples now equal defensive consumer staples sector, eliminating the Magnificent 7 premium that existed in 2021. |
Semiconductor Cycle GPUs Memory Semi Equipment Chip Designers | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager argues current AI valuations are reasonable compared to 1999 bubble levels, with NVIDIA trading at 40x earnings versus Cisco's 200x peak. Technology companies have doubled net income over four years with 550% earnings growth since 2008, representing a sustainable trend rather than speculative fad. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Valuations Earnings Nvidia |
CryptoBitcoin finished 2025 down 6% near $93,460 despite widespread price targets of $200,000-$1.5 million from major firms. The manager uses this as evidence that highly speculative assets make fools of one-year forecasts, emphasizing the unpredictability of cryptocurrency markets. |
Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Speculation Volatility | |
Risk AppetiteManager expresses concern about record-breaking margin debt levels at end of 2025, up 36% year-over-year. Warns that leverage rarely announces itself as dangerous until markets move against it, and notes the explosion in options trading as a source of systemic risk. |
Margin Debt Leverage Options Trading Systemic Risk | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CryptoCrypto is identified as one of three speculative asset classes that crushed both the Mag 7 and S&P 500 since August. The letter notes crypto as part of the degenerate economy trend, with Robinhood generating significant trading fees from crypto transactions alongside options. |
Bitcoin Digital Assets Trading Speculation Robinhood |
Risk AppetiteThe letter emphasizes an insatiable appetite for risk in America backed by $7 trillion in cash. This speculative behavior is driving volatility in the short term but reinforcing US world economic leadership over the long term through increased participation in equity markets. |
Speculation Volatility Cash Risk Taking Market Participation | |
Capital MarketsExtensive discussion of American shareholder capitalism dominance, with US households holding 4-5 times more equities than international peers. The letter highlights record retail investor buying of over $100 billion in US stocks in the last month, the largest on record. |
Shareholder Capitalism Retail Investors Stock Ownership Market Participation Equity Culture | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI-driven automation is expected to lower costs and increase productivity through labor cost savings. The manager views AI as part of a long-term deflationary trend that has been ongoing since the 1990s tech boom. AI is positioned as a key driver of innovation that will fuel market gains alongside crypto and quantum computing leadership. |
Automation Productivity Innovation Deflation |
CryptoThe crypto ecosystem hit $4 trillion this year and is becoming institutionalized with 28 crypto-related ETFs and institutional buyers building positions. While crypto as an asset class is here to stay, a significant percent of the ecosystem remains corrupt and extremely speculative. The manager compares it to the early internet era where many players will go to zero before reaching the promised land. |
Bitcoin Institutionalization ETFs Speculation | |
Risk AppetiteThe letter describes a massive surge in speculation with margin debt crossing $1 trillion, meme stocks and SPACs returning, and retail traders diving into zero-day options. Goldman Sachs highlights that all four riskiest pockets of the market are now in the top decile of risk. The manager notes this speculative surge could surpass the dot-com bubble in scale. |
Speculation Margin Volatility Bubbles | |
RatesThe manager notes that while forward P/E ratios are back to 2021 levels at 22x, the key difference is that 10-year Treasury yields have risen from 1.5% in 2021 to 4.4% today. This means valuations are just as stretched but now sitting atop much higher interest rates. Despite this, potential deregulation and lower rates could drive markets even higher. |
Valuations Treasury Interest Monetary | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump's aggressive tariff policy surprised critics and created market volatility. The complex math behind Liberation Day tariffs remains unclear to most, with uncertain ripple effects through the U.S. service export and goods import imbalance. Tariff escalation was placed on a 90-day pause. |
Tariffs Trade War Policy Volatility Exports |
CryptoGlobal leaders are now dabbling in crypto pump-and-dumps with zero regulation, which could be crypto's downfall. North Korea has reportedly stolen $6 billion in crypto, now their largest revenue source. The nonstop availability of crypto speculation has created a toxic environment for young American men. |
Cryptocurrency Regulation Speculation Security Theft | |
DemographicsAmerica's economic edge is rooted in its identity as a nation of immigrants, with 25% of doctors, construction workers, and entrepreneurs being immigrants. Legal immigrants have a 74% lower incarceration rate than native-born Americans. Mismanaging immigration advantage risks joining the world in demographic decline. |
Immigration Population Growth Labor Decline | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Private CreditPrivate equity has grown explosively while small-cap stocks have underperformed for 9 of the last 11 years. Private equity unicorns have grown 1,100% since 2014, keeping companies private and fundamentally altering the landscape for small public stocks. |
Private Equity Small Caps Unicorns IPO Liquidity |
DemographicsDemographics are destiny and key to American exceptionalism. While China, Europe, and Russia face negative population growth, the US benefits from immigration. However, declining high school graduates paired with extending life expectancy creates workforce challenges. |
Population Growth Immigration Workforce Aging Labor | |
GovernmentDOGE faces challenges making game-changing cuts as the five largest federal spending areas make up 80% of the budget. Federal workforce hasn't grown since WWII, making meaningful reductions difficult despite bureaucracy reduction goals. |
Federal Spending Bureaucracy Budget Workforce Efficiency | |
| 2024 Q3 |
DemographicsChina's population began declining in 2023 due to the one-child policy, while Russia faces shrinking workforce and over 1 million casualties from Ukraine invasion. Both countries experience talent outflow while the US attracts record foreign-born citizens seeking economic opportunities. |
Population Workforce Migration Labor |
Data CentersThe US hosts over 5,000 data centers compared to Germany's 521 and China's 449, giving America competitive advantage in computational capacity. US computer processing power grew 3,440% between 2015-2023, illustrating rapid digital infrastructure expansion. |
Infrastructure Computing Technology Capacity | |
OnshoringThe US imports half of what Europe does with bipartisan support for reshoring critical industries to reduce foreign supply chain dependence. This shift emphasizes domestic production and strategic control over key industries. |
Manufacturing Supply Chain Domestic Trade | |
| 2024 Q2 |
OnshoringRe-shoring, deglobalization, and tariffs dominate 2024 business and political discussions. Supply chain issues, geopolitics, tariffs, and rising labor costs are prompting a reshoring of more industry back to the U.S., which is positive. However, the economy will remain global as nearly 80 years of globalization won't disappear in 24 months. |
Deglobalization Supply Chain Manufacturing Tariffs Geopolitics |
Commercial Real EstateAlmost $1 trillion of debt linked to commercial real estate will mature this year in the US. Rising defaults among borrowers failing to repay could lead to dislocations in commercial real estate that may spread to the banking sector and the broader economy. The Fed is likely keen to avoid being late in responding to these potential risks. |
CRE Debt Banking Defaults Maturity Wall Fed Policy | |
RatesThe U.S. government is currently paying $1 trillion annually in interest payments at current levels. The Fed faces pressure to lower rates due to commercial real estate debt maturities, housing market weakness, and private equity underperformance. Bond markets have experienced a downturn for 40 out of the last 41 months. |
Interest Rates Fed Policy Government Debt Bond Market Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Infrastructure SpendingThe bipartisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act authorizes $1.2 trillion for transportation and infrastructure spending, with $550 billion allocated to new investments. The US ranks at the bottom among large countries in transportation spending despite highways and streets nearing the 30-year mark, highlighting the critical need for infrastructure investment. |
Infrastructure Transportation Government Spending Investment |
ResilienceThe US economy demonstrates remarkable resilience, with the S&P 500 historically recovering from geopolitical events within 33 days on average. Despite current geopolitical tensions including conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, the American economy continues to show its ability to endure and recover from turmoil. |
Economic Recovery Geopolitical Strength Durability | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIAI advancement propelled large-cap tech sector throughout 2023, driving massive speculation and investment flows. The combination of AI hype, passive flows, and peak rates expectations powered speculative fervor in technology stocks. However, artificial intelligence may end up over-hyped with only Nvidia figuring out how to make money in early innings. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Speculation Nvidia Hype |
TechnologyLarge-cap technology stocks led substantial rally with little assistance from other sectors until Q4 2023. Technology sector ratio relative to rest of S&P 500 reached record levels not seen since February 2000. Magnificent Seven boasts market cap three times larger than entire American small-cap market, with massive capital flows into tech stocks and money markets. |
Large Cap Magnificent Seven Rally Outperformance Concentration | |
United StatesAmerican economy continues asserting undeniable dominance despite polarized politics and global conflicts. US stock market outperformed China's in what may be biggest blowout in history, with 5-year Nasdaq QQQ up 167% versus China FXI ETF down 40%. America leads economic competition by multiple lengths with record millionaires and strong household balance sheets. |
Economic Dominance Outperformance Leadership Strength Competition | |
| 2023 Q3 |
ConcentrationSeven specific stocks have been the sole contributors to S&P 500 returns in 2023, with the magnificent seven up more than 50% while the remaining 493 stocks are basically flat. The remainder of the S&P index has dipped below its 2021 lows, indicating most of the stock market remains in a bearish phase. |
FAANG Magnificent Seven Market Leadership Index Concentration |
BondsBonds are facing the possibility of three consecutive years of negative returns, something that has never occurred in U.S. history. The 5-year return on bonds exhibits a 97% correlation with the coupon rate, and recent rise in interest rates is enhancing the value of fixed income investments. Bonds are becoming increasingly appealing at 25-year low valuations. |
Interest Rates Fixed Income Treasury Yield Curve | |
ValuationsStocks don't seem to be in a bubble right now, with the market approaching 25-year median valuation after the October pullback. If we take out the technology sector, the rest of the market would be trading below the average over the last 25 years. The classic 60/40 balanced portfolio is also near 25-year median valuations. |
P/E Ratios Market Multiples Historical Comparison Fair Value | |
Energy TransitionAlternative energy investments have experienced significant volatility with substantial drawdowns of around -50% from their respective highs. Solar ETF TAN hit -85% since inception, while clean energy ETF ICLN is -60% from highs, serving as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the market. |
Solar Clean Energy Lithium Renewable | |
| 2023 Q2 |
ConcentrationSeven companies now constitute over 50% of the Nasdaq 100, making this stock rally one of the most concentrated ever witnessed. The top 5 stocks now make up close to 25% of the S&P 500. Apple alone is worth more than all small-cap stocks in the US combined. |
Market Concentration Big Tech Nasdaq S&P 500 Large Cap |
Infrastructure SpendingGovernment's massive spending totaling $2 trillion across three bills has had far-reaching impact on numerous industries, promoting onshoring and foreign direct investment. This spending has fueled a boom in manufacturing construction in the United States. |
Government Spending Manufacturing Onshoring Investment | |
RatesThe 40-year downward trend in interest rates has finally come to an end with the Federal Reserve's unprecedented 1700% increase in rates. Howard Marks notes that interest rates are not going to decline by another 2,000 basis points and investors can potentially get equity-like returns from bonds. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Bonds Yields | |
DemographicsThe economic and population growth trend in the southern United States was magnified during COVID-19 to the extent that it now outpaces the northeastern region. Six fast-growing southern states saw their combined share of national GDP soar above New York and the rest of the Northeast. |
Population Growth Regional Migration GDP Growth Southern States | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIAI is identified as a new buzzword in the tech space driving stock performance. Any AI-related stock is increasing in value as part of the speculative rally in Q1 2023. The manager includes AI among the top performers alongside meme stocks and non-profit tech. |
Artificial Intelligence Tech Speculation |
CryptoBitcoin rallied 72% in Q1 and is up 60%+ year-to-date following the banking crisis. March saw the highest crypto turnover since the FTX collapse. The banking crisis reinvigorated crypto believers' don't trust the government mantra, with Bitcoin becoming an alternative to traditional banking. |
Bitcoin Banking Crisis Alternative | |
Credit StressThree major banks collapsed within months: Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank, all with heavy exposure to crypto and technology companies. The banking crisis sparked comparisons to 2008 but the manager notes regional banks' commercial real estate exposure is only 7% of GDP versus 77% for housing mortgages in 2008. |
Banking Regional Banks Commercial Real Estate | |
Risk AppetiteSpeculation returned with vengeance in Q1 2023 through options trading, disruptor stocks, crypto, and non-profit tech stocks. Zero Days to Expiration options trading volume is swamping underlying securities turnover. ARKK fund recorded huge inflows close to $400 million after massive 2022 losses. |
Options Speculation ARKK | |
RatesThe Fed raised interest rates by 1700% in one year after a long cycle of zero-cost borrowing. Fed funds rate is now above core PCE inflation, suggesting monetary policy is entering a contractionary stage. Money market assets hit record levels above $5.1 trillion as cash pays over 4% up from zero. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Money Markets | |
| 2022 Q4 |
InflationInflation has dropped 50% from highs according to CPI/PPI numbers, with rents now falling which has a lagged effect on overall inflation data. The manager is skeptical of historical comparisons to 1970s runaway inflation, citing that oil intensity dropped 56% between 1973 and 2019 and the economy is far less labor-intensive. |
CPI PPI Oil Labor |
DividendsDividends historically contributed an average 38% of S&P 500 total return but only accounted for 16% in the 2010s. In inflationary periods like the 1970s, dividends climbed to more than 70% of returns. When expecting single-digit growth, dividends can provide a head start and downside protection. |
Income Yield Protection | |
CryptoCrypto was the bubble star of this bull market but imploded as soon as the Fed started raising rates, erasing $2 trillion of value within 10 months. Currently, crypto has failed as a currency, digital gold, and technology to remove the middleman. |
Bitcoin Bubble Fed | |
SPACsSPACs are IPOs with less regulation and higher fees. The SPAC market is described as burnt toast with zero new SPACs issued by July 2022, and the manager guesses we will not hear of SPACs again for at least another decade. |
IPO Regulation Fees | |
RatesThe Fed's expeditious rate raises accomplished the dual mission of popping bubbles and reducing inflation. Investing prior to the final rate cut, which is assumed to come in the first half of 2023, has historically been a high-probability bet for bond returns. |
Fed Bonds Policy | |
ValueInternational stocks show price-to-earnings discounts at 20-year record lows, a two-standard deviation event. US growth stocks have the lowest projected 10-year returns according to Vanguard projections, while value stocks show higher expected returns. |
International Discount Projections | |
| 2022 Q3 |
InflationManager discusses GROG inflation (Gas, Rent, Off-time, Groceries) eating into American paychecks but notes inflation is peaking. Gas prices down 25% from highs, rents went negative in September, and commodity prices are selling off quickly with shipping costs down over 50%. |
Gas Rent Commodities Shipping Food |
RatesManager notes the Fed is close to done with rate hikes as mortgage rates hit 7% and stocks/bonds have collapsed. Historical data shows S&P has experienced positive returns in 11 out of last 12 rate hiking cycles. Bonds now pay actual coupons with 4% risk-free returns available. |
Fed Mortgage Treasury Hiking | |
CryptoManager mentions crypto as one of the areas that cratered along with meme stocks, options trading and SPACs, causing Millennials to sell their holdings. Compares current 1-year Treasury buying to crypto buying in 2021 as a contra indicator. |
Bitcoin Meme SPACs Millennials | |
ValueManager emphasizes that valuations have pulled back to 25-year median for S&P 500, below 25-year median for small/mid cap stocks, and at record low valuations for international stocks. Forward 10-year returns have improved significantly as valuations corrected. |
Valuations Small Cap International Forward Returns | |
| 2022 Q2 |
InflationManager describes Americans suffering from GROG (Gas, Rent, Off-time, Groceries) with gas prices up 50%, rents up 15%, restaurant prices up 8.7%, and grocery costs in mid-teens year over year. This represents the first inflation bout in 30 years leaving Americans dazed and weak. |
Gas Prices Food Costs Housing Consumer Prices CPI |
CryptoManager is highly critical of crypto speculation, noting Matt Damon's crypto.com ads coincided with market top. Crypto market lost two-thirds of its value since Super Bowl ads, with Bitcoin down 58% while dollar rallied 12%. Coinbase down 88% from IPO represents the public market equivalent. |
Bitcoin Coinbase Speculation Digital Assets | |
GamblingManager strongly criticizes 24/7 gambling access via smartphones during Covid lockdowns, referencing Ben Affleck's WYNN ads. Notes WYNN down 63% from 2021 highs and describes 24/7 gambling access as a loser's game for everyone except the house. |
Sports Betting Online Gaming Mobile Apps Speculation | |
ValueManager sees opportunity emerging as S&P forward P/E ratios have corrected back below 25-year median. Removing technology sector, S&P would be close to one standard deviation below median. Emphasizes this creates better entry points for long-term investors. |
Valuations P/E Ratios Mean Reversion Entry Points | |
| 2022 Q1 |
InflationManager views inflation as the dominant force ending the 40-year bond bull market and driving Fed policy changes. Describes inflation as a monetary, fiscal, political, and social hot potato that will force aggressive Fed action to the point of accepting a mild recession. |
Monetary Policy Fed Policy Interest Rates Stimulus Pricing |
RatesRising interest rates are viewed as a natural consequence of economic health rather than an immediate market threat. Manager notes that historically, stocks perform well following Fed rate hikes, with 82% positive returns after 12 months. |
Fed Hikes Treasury Yields Bond Market Monetary Policy Economic Growth | |
CommoditiesCommodities had their best quarter in 32 years but remain cheap versus the S&P 500 historically. Manager sees them as potential inflation hedges but warns they are trading plays, not long-term buy-and-hold assets due to high volatility. |
Inflation Hedge Volatility Trading Energy Materials | |
Commercial Real EstatePrivate real estate is positioned as an attractive inflation hedge and bond replacement for investors who can afford illiquidity. Manager emphasizes the importance of choosing experienced managers as alpha is generated through disciplined teams in this space. |
Inflation Hedge Illiquid Alpha Generation Bond Alternative Private Markets | |
ValueManager highlights sectors trading at reasonable valuations with healthy dividends, specifically citing healthcare as trading at discount valuations with inflation-proof margins and strong bear market performance history. |
Valuations Dividends Healthcare Defensive Discount | |
| 2021 Q4 |
ValuationsMultiple valuation metrics including Shiller P/E and Buffett Indicator are at or above 1999 internet bubble highs. Margin debt is 2 standard deviations above mean and real earnings yields have gone negative for the first time since 2000 and 2008. These high valuations suggest lower expected returns going forward. |
Shiller PE Buffett Indicator Margin Debt Earnings Yield Bubble |
ValueValue stocks have hit record low valuations compared to growth stocks, similar to 2000 levels. Historical data shows value sectors like materials, industrials and energy tend to outperform during rising interest rate cycles, which the Fed has signaled for 2022. |
Value vs Growth Cyclical Sectors Rate Cycles | |
Emerging MarketsEmerging markets had a record year of underperformance in 2021 with roughly -5% versus S&P +28%. This spread left the group trading back to record valuation discount against US markets, hitting 2000 internet bubble low valuations. |
EM Discount Underperformance Relative Valuation | |
RatesThe Fed has given clear signal they are pulling back the punch bowl with odds favoring at least 3 interest rate raises in 2022. Real treasury yields are -4%, handing investors substantial losses after inflation. The manager believes we have seen the generational low in interest rates. |
Fed Policy Rate Hikes Real Yields Inflation | |
CryptoThe manager discusses crypto in the context of speculation and celebrity endorsements, noting that the top players represent 0.01% of bitcoin holders yet control 27% of the digital currency. Mentions blockchain as real but questions whether crypto is near a top. |
Bitcoin Speculation Blockchain Celebrity Endorsements |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
