| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 28.8% | 10.9% | 45.6% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| 45.6% | -11.0% | -0.6% |
Kathmandu Capital delivered strong Q4 2025 performance with 13.65% gross returns, bringing full-year returns to 52.04% gross. The fund is positioned around the central theme of U.S. vs China technological competition, particularly in semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Key holdings include Vicor, a power solutions provider benefiting from AI-driven data center transitions, ACM Research supporting China's semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts, and Huntington Ingalls capturing defense shipbuilding opportunities. The portfolio maintains approximately 35% in gold and cash as protection against inflation and economic setbacks. Market volatility around AI capex concerns created opportunities, while Fed rate cuts and balance sheet expansion provided support. Looking ahead to 2026, the manager expects the U.S.-China rivalry to remain the dominant investment theme, with technology velocity and policy execution determining leadership. The fund is evolving beyond traditional value investing to incorporate momentum and growth elements, expecting higher turnover and implementing tighter risk management. The manager emphasizes becoming better investors through continuous evolution rather than confining to rigid style boxes.
The fund is positioned to capitalize on the ongoing U.S. vs China technology and defense competition, particularly in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and defense spending, while using precious metals as portfolio protection.
Expect the U.S. vs China race to remain the dominant theme in 2026. Technology velocity and government policy execution will decide the leader in this race. Will continue to monitor developments closely and search for opportunities. Expect higher portfolio turnover and will implement tighter stops and more disciplined risk management.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ACMR, GOOGL, HII, LITE, NVDA, ORCL, VICR | AI, China, defense, geopolitics, gold, Power Electronics, semiconductors, technology | - | Market concerns about AI capex cycle intensified with Oracle results falling short. The fund is positioned to benefit from AI-driven power requirements and data center architecture transitions, particularly through holdings like Vicor which provides power solutions for XPU applications. China still lacks ability to design and manufacture leading-edge chips at US levels. The fund holds ACM Research, China's leading wafer-fab cleaning equipment manufacturer, positioned to benefit from China's semiconductor self-sufficiency push. National security has become central focus for both US and China. Added Huntington Ingalls to capture increased shipbuilding needs as defense becomes key battleground between rivals and government spending focuses on naval readiness. Portfolio ended quarter with approximately 35 percent in gold and cash. Hold precious metals as hedge positions to protect portfolio against inflation and potential economic setbacks. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | KSPI, UI, VU FP | Artificial Intelligence, China, gold, Nuclear Energy, semiconductors |
UI US ACMR US LEU US KSPI US |
The fund sees AI and nuclear energy driving global competition between the U.S. and China, creating investment opportunities in semiconductors and energy. A large gold allocation reflects defense against currency weakness and inflation. Chinas market inefficiencies and technological rise offer long-term upside despite risks. |
| Jul 4 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 3918 HK, ACMR, GCT, KSPI, OMAB, UI, VU | long-term, market structure, mispricing, Patience, volatility |
3918 HK KSPI GCT UI ACMR OMAB |
The letter frames volatility as a structural feature of modern markets driven by leverage, policy uncertainty, and crowding. Management argues that embracing volatility rather than avoiding it allows for superior long-term compounding. The strategy focuses on mispriced securities created by short-term fear and forced selling. |
| May 26 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 3918 HK, GCT, KSPI, SEG MM, UI, VU FP | - | - | |
| Mar 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 3918 HK, GCT, KSPI, SEG MM, UI, VU FP | - | - | |
| Dec 18 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 3918 HK, GCT, GLD, KSPI, VU FP | - | - | |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 3918 HK, KSPI, VU FP | - | - | |
| Apr 20 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 3918 HK, KSPI, VU FP | - | - | |
| Oct 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | 3918 HK, KSPI LI, SESL FP | - | - | |
| Oct 17 2023 | 2023 Q3 | 3918 HK, KSPI LI, SESL FP | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
DefenseThe team initiated a position in Curtiss-Wright, believing the company is entering a period where multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
Defense Budgets Aerospace Nuclear Submarines | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AI Cycle |
|
China Opportunity |
||
Gold Hedge |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | UI US | Ubiquiti Inc. | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | buybacks, dividends, growth, innovation, IoT, Margins, Networking, technology | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | ACMR US | ACM Research, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, China, Geopolitics, growth, manufacturing, Policy, semiconductors, technology | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | LEU US | Centrus Energy Corp. | Materials | Uranium & Nuclear Fuel | Bull | NYSE | energy, growth, Nuclear, Policy, SMR, technology, U.s., uranium | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | KSPI US | Kaspi.kz JSC | Information Technology | Financial Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | Fintech, growth, Kazakhstan, Payments, profitability, Turkey, valuation | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | 3918 HK | NagaCorp Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | Bull | Pakistan Stock Exchange (formerly Karachi) | Airport, Cambodia, casino, Gaming, traffic | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | KSPI | Kaspi.kz JSC | Financials | Transportation Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | diversification, expansion, Fintech, Kazakhstan, Turkey | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | GCT | Gigacloud Technology, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | ecommerce, Logistics, Margins, marketplace, tariffs | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | broadband, infrastructure, Networking, Subsidies, Wireless | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Equipment, Localization, Onshoring, semiconductors, valuation | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | Industrials | Transportation Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | Airports, cashflow, Concessions, infrastructure, Nearshoring | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ACMR | ACM Research, China's leading wafer-fab cleaning equipment manufacturer, positioned to benefit from China's push toward semiconductor self-sufficiency |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries, the largest shipbuilder for the US Navy, outperformed during the quarter after reporting strong Q3 results and raising full-year guidance. Shares also benefited after the award of a new frigate contract and discussion of a potential Trump-class battleship, both of which were viewed as meaningful opportunities. Performance was further supported by improving execution as recent labor challenges eased. |
| LITE | Lumentum is a leading supplier of lasers to the AI ecosystem. The stock rallied due to strong demand for its products in hyperscale and AI data centers, along with general apparent optimism surrounding AI infrastructure stocks. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| VICR | Over the past quarter, we added Vicor, a leading U.S. designer and manufacturer of high-performance power modules, as a core position. Vicor is positioned to benefit from rising AI-driven power requirements and the transition toward HVDC architectures. Despite this, Vicor remains a misunderstood small-cap company with limited Wall Street coverage. We believe company guidance and street consensus are way too conservative and Vicor is a multi-bagger set to capture a multi-year tailwind. Vicor is the gold standard in last-inch 48V-to-sub-1V vertical power delivery, enabling high-current conversion near the XPU to minimize I²R losses, heat, and EMI while sustaining high efficiency. In the second half of 2025, Vicor has completed qualification for a lead customer's next-generation platform, which we believe to be Nvidia, and we believe Google is likely to follow suit, along with two additional tier-one OEMs. We believe Vicor is on the cusp of adding more customers as the industry leader in the last mile HVDC power delivery. Management is guiding toward a $200 million annual licensing run rate by 2027 to 2028, which we view as conservative given the depth of unmonetized IP and early traction. We believe the licensing business, combined with vertical integration and next-generation high-end hardware products, will meaningfully shift the revenue mix and position Vicor for significant margin expansion. Taken together, customer wins, expanded production capacity, and IP monetization make Vicor's long-term targets of $1B in revenue and 65% corporate margins appear conservative. |
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