| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 0% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 0.8% |
Warden Capital posted flat 0.8% net returns in 2025 versus 17% for the S&P 500, driven by defensive positioning with a large short book and value-oriented investments that underperformed during continued market euphoria. The manager maintains conviction in current positioning, believing AI capex is unsustainable and the bubble will burst when model progress or revenue growth slows. Key holdings include Vail Resorts, purchased around $148 but now trading at $133, which the manager views as owning irreplaceable ski resort assets at attractive valuations. Alexandria Real Estate represents a bet on biotech sector recovery as the largest life sciences landlord trading at oversold levels. The portfolio also includes uniQure, a biotech with promising Huntington's disease gene therapy that showed 75% reduction in disease progression but faced FDA setbacks. Despite poor recent performance, the manager feels optimistic about portfolio positioning and expects significant upside as market conditions normalize and defensive positioning pays off.
Manager maintains defensive positioning with significant short exposure betting against AI bubble while investing in undervalued assets like Vail Resorts, Alexandria Real Estate, and uniQure biotech that offer compelling risk-adjusted returns.
Manager feels very optimistic about portfolio positioning and expects AI hype to burst by 2027 if not 2026. Believes there is significant value and potential upside in current holdings despite recent underperformance.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ARE, MTN, PLD, PLTR, QURE | AI, Biotechnology, Commercial real estate, Defensive, Shorts, value |
MTN ARE PLTR QURE |
Warden Capital's defensive positioning with large short book and value investments led to flat 2025 returns amid continued market euphoria. Manager maintains conviction in AI bubble thesis and current holdings including Vail Resorts ski assets, Alexandria life sciences real estate, and uniQure gene therapy biotech, expecting significant upside when market conditions normalize. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BLDR, NVDA, PLYM | AI, Bubble, Cash, Defensive, mania, Recession, Shorts |
NVDA QUBT |
War Cap underperformed in Q3 due to defensive positioning amid what the manager sees as a full AI mania. OpenAI's $1+ trillion spending commitments against massive losses exemplify unsustainable bubble dynamics requiring 16x revenue growth to break even. Portfolio holds significant cash and shorts, particularly quantum stocks at 600x sales, positioning for anticipated 2026 downturn as AI capex slows. |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | GOOGL, META, MSFT, PLTR, SPWH | AI, Hedging, Housing, rates, Recession, REITs, tariffs, valuation |
SPWH PLTR SPWH PLTR |
Warden Capital maintains defensive positioning with majority REIT exposure trading at attractive yields and discounts while holding significant cash and hedges. Manager nervous about economy citing tariff headwinds, rate impacts, and housing weakness. Successful Sportsman's Warehouse turnaround investment doubled returns. Portfolio positioned to benefit from eventual rate cuts despite current economic uncertainty and AI boom sustainability questions. |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ANF, AVGO, BRK-A, ILPT, MAC, NVDA, PK, SPOT, SPWH, VNO | AI, rates, real estate, small caps, tariffs, technology, value | - | Warden Capital outperformed REITs but lagged the S&P's tech-driven rally. Manager sees unsustainable AI capex bubble with poor ROI, rising rate headwinds from tariff/deficit concerns, and plans to expand beyond commercial real estate focus in 2025 while maintaining concentration in high-conviction mainstream REIT positions. |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | USRT, WELL | AI, Cash, Commercial real estate, Hotels, inflation, Macro, Recession, REITs | - | Warden Capital maintains defensive cash positioning amid 30-35% recession odds but sees attractive CRE opportunities at current valuations below replacement cost. REITs have rallied near NAVs with Fed cutting cycle providing capital markets relief. Hospitality sector offers asymmetric opportunity with largest NAV discounts. Manager positioned for CRE outperformance regardless of economic outcome. |
| Jul 16 2022 | 2024 Q2 | BX, CPT, EQR, KKR, NXRT, USRT | CRE, Fed, inflation, Multifamily, rates, real estate, REITs | - | Warden Capital sees CRE markets at a bottom with institutional capital returning to multifamily. Quality assets trade well below replacement cost while Fed rate cuts loom as inflation moderates. Portfolio positioned for limited downside in recession scenario and meaningful upside as capital markets normalize and fundamentals improve. |
| Apr 20 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BX, NVDA | Commercial, demographics, inflation, Multifamily, real estate, REITs | - | Warden Capital outperformed real estate indices in Q1 while positioning in high-quality CRE assets trading at significant discounts to private markets. With CRE prices likely bottomed and major investors deploying capital, the portfolio benefits from yields above private market levels. Strong demographics and immigration trends support residential real estate despite near-term supply headwinds. |
| Jan 18 2024 | 2023 Q4 | MAC, NXRT, PK, PLD, VNO | Commercial real estate, inflation, rates, REITs, value |
AXGN|MIR|NPKI|PACK|TPB|VNOM AFM CN|B4B GR|BLU SJ|COH SJ|HCI|KO|KSPI|MGROS TI|MTN SJ|NE|NPK SJ|OCE SJ|PPI|PRX NA|SAHOL TI|SES|WINE LN ASIC|CWAN|INSP|KRMN|KTOS|MAC|MEG|RH|WYNN |
Warden Capital posted 49.99% returns in 2023 through concentrated REIT investing, capitalizing on a fundamental disconnect where construction costs have risen 30-70% while CRE values fell to 2014 levels. With Fed rate cuts expected and supply constraints emerging, the manager sees compelling medium-term value opportunities despite recent strong performance. |
| Oct 17 2023 | 2023 Q3 | CUBE, MAA, MAC, PLD, TGT | Cap Rates, Commercial Property, inflation, interest rates, Office, real estate, REITs, retail | - | Warden Capital sees compelling CRE opportunities despite rate headwinds. Quality assets trade below replacement costs while long-term pricing depends on supply/demand fundamentals, not rates. Retail shows strong leasing momentum, hospitality offers attractive yields, and selective office exposure remains interesting. Avoided multifamily weakness from sunbelt oversupply. Positioned for value creation as markets normalize. |
| Jul 21 2023 | 2023 Q2 | MAC, PEB, PK, PLD, SLG, VNO | Banking, Capital markets, inflation, productivity, real estate, REITs | - | Warden Capital sees attractive CRE opportunities as capital markets stabilize post-banking crisis. Office REITs like VNO/SLG rebounded strongly in Q2 after Q1 weakness, while retail favorite Macerich trades at compelling 8.7% cap rates. Favorable inflation trends could benefit interest rates and cap rates. Manager confident in portfolio positioning despite macro uncertainties. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been the defining theme of market leadership in 2025, driving data center capex and benefiting semis, electrical equipment, and tech hardware. The theme reasserted dominance after NVIDIA's strong earnings in late November, though concerns about durability caused temporary rotation. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Infrastructure Capex Hardware |
ElectrificationPortfolio maintains largest absolute and relative exposure to Industrials sector representing conviction in the Electrification theme. Bloom Energy benefited from AI data center power demands, with fuel cells providing reliable onsite power for AI workloads. |
Power Grid Energy Storage Infrastructure Industrial | |
AerospacePortfolio retains conviction in the Aerospace theme alongside Electrification within the Industrials sector. Rocket Lab operates in Launch Services and Space Systems, providing rides to orbit for small satellites and manufacturing spacecraft components. |
Space Defense Launch Satellites Components | |
BiotechnologyBiotech was a standout performer during the quarter, delivering its best quarter in five years driven by improving rate environment, easing regulation enabling more M&A, and excitement around AI's promise in drug discovery efficiency. |
Drug Discovery M&A Regulation Innovation Healthcare | |
SolarFirst Solar differentiates with thin-film CdTe technology offering better performance in hot/humid/low light conditions. Trump Administration's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' has driven US demand for non-China solar products, providing additional tailwinds. |
Manufacturing Technology Policy Trade Energy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe manager believes we are in a full-blown AI bubble led by Nvidia and OpenAI, with circular vendor financing deals reminiscent of the dot-com era. OpenAI has committed over $1 trillion in spending over several years despite losing $7.8 billion in H1 2025 on $4.3 billion revenue. The AI industry needs revenues to increase 16x just to break even on current capex investments, which appears unlikely given slowing model improvement and lack of clear path to AGI. |
Nvidia OpenAI Capex Bubble AGI |
Commercial Real EstateThe manager notes that CRE commentary is limited in this letter as detailed analysis was published separately a month prior. The portfolio has diversified away from REITs, making the REIT index a less relevant benchmark, though it's maintained for historical continuity. |
REITs Diversification Benchmark | |
InflationCore PCE has rebounded to the 3% range, much of it imputed from rising stock prices. Services inflation has slowed but has been offset by rising goods inflation from tariffs. The Fed remains cautious on cuts due to inflation concerns and massive government spending. |
PCE Tariffs Fed Rates | |
RatesBond rates have stayed fairly high due to inflation concerns and massive government spending. The Fed has been cautious on cuts but could see further cuts in 2026 if the economy slows and tariff-driven goods inflation proves temporary. Markets expect two more projected cuts in 2025. |
Fed Cuts Bonds Monetary Policy | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Commercial Real EstatePortfolio remains vast majority REIT focused with assets trading at high yields and significant discounts to private market and historical prices. Housing market continues to weaken especially in Texas and Florida as high prices and rates push affordability to all-time lows. Construction spending has turned negative which historically comes with recession except 1966. |
REITs Housing Construction Yields Discounts |
AIAI boom feels like the only thing keeping economy running alongside government spending. Current reinforcement learning and model scaffolding vectors have legs but cracks starting to show as overall model improvement has slowed dramatically. Progress in AI models will determine if tech boom continues or stalls. |
Models Progress Boom Tech Improvement | |
RatesHigher interest rates continue to impact economy with effects stretched out due to tariff uncertainty. Fed maintains hawkish stance which should keep inflation low. High rates causing sunbelt housing engine to slow with potential for lower rates if inflation returns to pre-covid levels. |
Fed Inflation Housing Hawkish Impact | |
Trade PolicyTariff policies caused wild pace of change in Q1 making letter writing difficult. Markets being overly sanguine about tariff impacts which will present economic headwinds even in best case scenario. Tariffs already causing some prices to rise with potential for much worse impact in worst case. |
Tariffs Headwinds Prices Impact Policy | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIManager analyzes massive AI capex spending (~$220B) versus minimal end-user revenues (~$15B), questioning ROI sustainability. Deepseek's 30x cheaper pricing model threatens industry economics. Compares current situation to 2000 tech bubble with potential for capital overspending. |
Data Centers Semiconductors LLMs Capex ROI |
Commercial Real EstateFund's primary focus with outperformance versus REIT index. Manager discusses specific holdings including VNO, MAC, ILPT, and Park Hotels. Plans major new CRE investment as largest position. Views sector as having low competition caliber. |
REITs Office Hotels Valuations Yields | |
Rates10-year Treasury up 90bps from fall lows, driven by potential Trump tariffs and fiscal deficit concerns rather than inflation. Rising rates negatively impact financing costs and hard asset valuations. Bond vigilantes returning due to stagflationary risks. |
Treasury Financing Tariffs Deficits Stagflation | |
Trade PolicyTrump tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could be ~1% of GDP drag on growth. Manager concerned about retaliatory tariffs and economic disruption. Views Trump as mercantilist with potential for significant negative consequences from trade war. |
Tariffs Trade War GDP Retaliation Disruption | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Commercial Real EstateCRE markets are looking healthiest in a while due to falling 10-year rates and recent interest rate cuts providing capital markets respite. REIT prices have rallied almost to NAVs, and if no recession occurs, private market prices should march higher given significant private declines over past 2 years. CRE GPs are chomping at the bit to deploy capital en masse. |
REITs NAV Private Markets Capital Markets Distress |
InflationInflation is no longer major news with several good PCE and PCI readings giving Fed comfort to begin cutting rates. Overall 12-month PCE down to 2.2% in August, with core higher at 2.7% due to elevated housing inflation. Manager is relatively sanguine about inflation and more concerned with economic downturn currently. |
PCE Fed Housing Rates Deflation | |
AIAI/ML has made dramatic progress in a very short period and is likely already driving productivity improvements in the large professional services sector. Examples include Klarna replacing much of its customer service force with AI and investment in Hercules startup automating legal and finance workflows. LLMs ability to ingest unstructured data opens up huge new swath of work to automation. |
Productivity LLMs Automation Professional Services Startups | |
HotelsHospitality market has not benefited from recent rally and has biggest NAV discount by healthy margin. Manager suspects softening consumer spending is spooking investors. Strange asymmetry exists where if recession occurs other asset classes will suffer as well, yet only hotels seem to be pricing one in, creating interesting opportunity. |
NAV Discount Consumer Spending Recession Asymmetry Opportunity | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Commercial Real EstateEvidence building that CRE markets may be at a bottom in private market pricing unless recession occurs. Multifamily pricing has firmed with institutional interest from KKR and Blackstone. Delinquency rates continue rising but replacement costs have increased dramatically, positioning quality assets well below replacement cost for future appreciation. |
Multifamily Cap Rates Delinquency Pricing Institutional |
InflationInflation has come down significantly after hot winter readings, with latest PCE data very mild. Housing component finally beginning to decline meaningfully in government data, matching private rental data trends. Ex-shelter inflation has been sub-2% for over a year, giving confidence that rates are coming down. |
PCE Housing Fed Rates Deflation | |
RatesElevated rates remain the major constraint on financing activity in CRE. Fed likely to cut rates given favorable inflation data, with market consensus for September cut feeling appropriate. Manager confident rates are coming down though pace is hard to predict. |
Fed Financing Monetary Policy Cuts Lending | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Commercial Real EstatePrivate market CRE prices may have bottomed out with large investors like Blackstone moving off the sidelines. Lending remains constrained but conditions are beginning to loosen on the banking side. The manager expects CRE bull markets if a big national recession can be avoided. |
CRE Private Markets Lending Distress Recovery |
InflationStronger January and February inflation readings have tempered expectations of quick Fed rate cuts. The manager is cautiously optimistic March data will look better and believes January's hot reading was more noise than trend. Real estate generally performs well in both high and low inflation environments. |
PCE Fed Rates Seasonality Real Estate | |
ResidentialMultifamily market remains soft with significant regional dispersion - coastal markets outperforming sunbelt due to lower supply levels. Immigration driven population growth could offset supply wave. Single family rental market has performed much better with favorable demographic tailwinds. |
Multifamily SFR Supply Demographics Immigration | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Commercial Real EstateCRE values have declined significantly due to rate hikes, with most asset classes at or below 2014 levels. Construction costs are 30-70% higher than 2015, creating supply constraints that should drive value appreciation over the next several years as replacement costs exceed current pricing. |
REITs Cap Rates Construction Costs Private Markets NAV |
RatesTreasury rates declined nearly 100 basis points from Q3 highs to around 3.95%, driven by moderating inflation data. Fed guidance now points to rate cuts in 2024, providing tailwinds for rate-sensitive real estate investments. |
Fed Policy Treasury Yields Rate Cuts Inflation | |
InflationHousing inflation data shows significant deceleration with new rental data indicating sub-2% inflation over 12 months. Structural factors keeping inflation subdued pre-COVID remain in place, though some probability of reignition exists. |
Housing Costs CPI PCE Wage Growth | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Commercial Real EstateThe manager discusses the interplay between fundamental performance and interest rates across CRE sectors. Higher rates are impacting all sectors, but higher yielding sectors should see less impact. Quality assets are expected to revert towards replacement values over the long term. |
REITs Cap Rates Fundamentals Valuation Supply |
RatesThe 10-year treasury spiked to 4.65% with peaks near 4.9%, creating difficulties in lending and investment sales markets. Despite good inflation data, rates have risen due to increased treasury issuance and Fed balance sheet reduction. |
Interest Rates Treasury Fed Inflation Monetary Policy | |
InflationRecent inflation data has been promising with the last 3 months around 2%, and when using private market rents it's only about 1%. Housing should continue to provide a tailwind for lower inflation given lagged government measures. |
PCE CPI Housing Core Services Deflation | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Commercial Real EstateManager discusses stabilization of capital markets after banking crisis, with liquidity slowly returning to CMBS markets. Focuses on various CRE sectors including office, retail, hospitality, industrial, and multifamily with detailed analysis of fundamentals and valuations. |
CMBS Cap Rates NAV REITs Banking Crisis |
InflationRecent inflation data has been quite favorable with core measures running 2.5-3% for May. Manager believes if inflation returns to ~3% by end of 2023, it could have very big repercussions for interest rates and cap rates. |
Core Inflation PCE CPI Interest Rates | |
Capital MarketsAfter freezing up almost entirely after the banking crisis in March, liquidity has slowly begun to return to markets. CMBS market showing signs of recovery with $5 billion of deals pricing in May. |
Liquidity CMBS Banking Crisis Credit | |
ProductivityEconomy has seen a large decline in productivity of 2.33% since Q2 2021. Manager theorizes this could explain a recession without employment decline and suggests working from home may be a contributing factor. |
WFH GDP GDI Employment |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Real Estate | Health Care REITs | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Biotech, Caprates, Life-science, Oversupply, REITs | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Downside, Hedge, Software, valuation | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | QURE | uniQure N.V. | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, clinical data, gene therapy, Optionality, Regulation | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | MTN | Vail Resorts, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | assets, Ski, Tourism, valuation, Weather | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bear | NASDAQ | AI, Bubble, CapEx, semiconductors, Speculation, valuation | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | QUBT | Quantum Computing Inc. | Information Technology | Quantum Computing Hardware | Bear | NASDAQ | Bubble, Quantum Computing, Short, Speculation, technology, valuation | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Warden Capital | SPWH | Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Cost Reduction, EBITDA multiple, Firearms, new CEO, same-store sales, Specialty retail, Sporting goods, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Warden Capital | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NYSE | Enterprise software, government clients, Growth Requirements, Overvaluation, Portfolio Hedge, put options, Revenue Multiple, Valuation Extreme | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | SPWH | Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Neutral | NASDAQ | Firearms, Margins, retail, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | growth, Hedging, Multiples, Software, valuation | Login |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | Warden Capital | AXGN|MIR|NPKI|PACK|TPB|VNOM | Vornado Realty Trust | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | NYSE | Active management, commercial real estate, Manhattan, Office, Opportunistic Buying, REIT, Value | Login |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | Warden Capital | AFM CN|B4B GR|BLU SJ|COH SJ|HCI|KO|KSPI|MGROS TI|MTN SJ|NE|NPK SJ|OCE SJ|PPI|PRX NA|SAHOL TI|SES|WINE LN | Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. | Real Estate | Hotel & Resort REITs | Bull | NYSE | Group Travel, Hawaii, hospitality, Hotel, Japanese Tourism, REIT, RevPAR Growth, Urban Recovery | Login |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | Warden Capital | ASIC|CWAN|INSP|KRMN|KTOS|MAC|MEG|RH|WYNN | Macerich Company | Real Estate | Retail REITs | Bull | NYSE | Inflation Recovery, Leasing Pipeline, Mall, NOI growth, REIT, Rental Escalations, retail | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ARE | Worst for the quarter was Alexandria Real Estate Inc. (ARE) at -39%, as the depth and duration of the valley for biotech real estate appeared to be expanding, and the company signaled a potential dividend cut, which is at odds with our Fund's objective. Subsequent to our sale, the company cut its dividend by 45%. |
| MTN | Vail Resorts operates mountain resorts and ski lodging, with the majority of revenue derived from US properties. It probably goes without saying that one can't ski without snow. Unfavorable weather conditions throughout 2025 dragged on visitations and skier spending. In addition, rising labor and operational costs have further pressured margins, and management has failed to reassure investors. We believe that Vail's challenges are more cyclical than structural, and if/when snowfall averages revert, an undemanding valuation could help underpin an increase in the stock price. |
| PLD | Best-in-class industrial REIT Prologis, Inc. contributed positively to performance during the fourth quarter, aided by the company's strong third quarter financial report, coupled with management's robust multi-year business outlook. We continue to believe the appreciation potential for Prologis' shares remains compelling given the strong runway for future cash flow and earnings growth in the next several years and an undemanding valuation. |
| PLTR | The top three contributors to this outperformance came from Palantir Technologies (US Defense) |
| QURE | The FDA walking back on QURE approval after mixed data made me roundtrip the profits of that position. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
