| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 17.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
Crossroads Capital returned 4.2% net in Q1 2026 while the S&P 500 declined 4.3% amid a 90% surge in oil prices from Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. The manager views this as evidence of market adaptation to Trump-era volatility, where participants learned from 2025's tariff selloff and refused to capitulate despite severe geopolitical shocks. The portfolio benefited from broadening away from mega-cap concentration, with special situations driving performance. Merlin Labs contributed 40% of gains as the SPAC-originated company began public trading, while AST SpaceMobile added 23% as constellation buildout accelerated. Nebius contributed 14% after securing $27B Meta commitment, and FTAI Aviation added 17% as the MRO franchise executed its transformation. Nintendo was the largest detractor at 35% of losses due to memory pricing concerns. The manager maintains focus on smaller, under-followed businesses with hard catalysts rather than macro positioning, viewing current market dynamics as favorable for their concentrated, special situations approach.
Building a portfolio around businesses with identifiable value-unlocking transformations and hard catalysts, concentrated in smaller, under-followed businesses trading at deep discounts to their medium-term earnings power, supplemented by idiosyncratic special situations.
The suspended animation described will resolve eventually, and when it does, the next developments may not be pleasant. The manager remains focused on owning businesses where outcomes depend on company-specific execution and hard catalysts rather than guessing headline direction.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22 2026 | 2026 Q1 | ASTS, FTAI, MRLN, NBIS, NTDOY | Aviation, Complex Systems, Oil Shock, small cap, Space, special situations, technology |
MRLN ASTS NBIS FTAI |
Crossroads outperformed in Q1 despite oil shock, benefiting from market broadening and special situations execution. Merlin Labs SPAC conversion and AST SpaceMobile constellation progress drove gains while Nintendo memory concerns created headwinds. Manager sees market adaptation to Trump volatility creating opportunities in smaller, catalyst-driven names with hard value-unlocking transformations. |
| Feb 26 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ASTS, CLMT, FTAI, META, MSFT, NBIS, NTDOY, NVDA, ORCL, PLTR | aerospace, AI, gaming, growth, small cap, Space, technology, value |
NTDOY ASTS NBIS FTAI |
Crossroads delivered 37.7% net returns in 2025 versus 17.9% for the S&P 500, driven by exceptional performance from Nintendo's record-breaking Switch 2 launch, AST SpaceMobile's commercial transition, and Nebius Group's AI infrastructure scaling. The fund benefited from improving small-cap market dynamics and remains positioned for continued outperformance through high-conviction, idiosyncratic growth businesses trading at discounts to intrinsic value. |
| Dec 9 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ^SP500TR, BUFIX, IWN, ZPRS.DE | catalysts, concentrated, long-term, Outperformance, Quality, small caps, special situations, value | - | Crossroads Capital is a concentrated small-cap value fund delivering 17.3% net annualized returns since 2016 inception, significantly outperforming benchmarks. The fund exploits structural inefficiencies in small-cap markets through catalyst-driven investing in high-quality businesses trading at deep discounts to intrinsic value, maintaining 10-15 concentrated positions with strong risk management and patient capital approach. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ASTS, ET, FTAI, GOOGL, META, MGNI, MRO, NBIS, NTDOY | Concentration, gaming, Satellite, small caps, technology, Trade Policy, value |
NTDOY ASTS |
Crossroads delivered 36.9% net returns in Q2 2025, led by Nintendo's record-breaking Switch 2 launch and AST SpaceMobile's space-based broadband execution. The concentrated small-cap value strategy continues substantial outperformance without owning mega-cap tech. Markets proved resilient to tariff uncertainty. Manager maintains high conviction in core positions as 'coiled springs' with value-unlocking catalysts ahead. |
| Apr 25 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, CLMT, DAR, FTAI, GOOGL, MGNI, NFLX, NTDOY, NVR, VTY.L | Advertising, aerospace, gaming, Homebuilders, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy, value |
FTAI CLMT NTDOY VTY.L MGNI |
Crossroads navigated Q1 tariff volatility by shifting to trade-war-resilient holdings while maintaining cash for opportunities. Key positions include Nintendo's Switch 2 transformation, FTAI's aerospace pivot, and Magnite's advertising platform benefits. Despite -7.6% quarterly decline, the fund recovered to -1.6% YTD and continues outperforming with 13.3% annualized returns since inception through disciplined value investing. |
| Mar 2 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | Concentration, Long/Short, small caps, special situations, value | - | Crossroads Capital runs a concentrated small-cap value strategy targeting underfollowed companies undergoing value-unlocking change. Since 2016 inception, the fund has delivered 14.8% net annualized returns, significantly outperforming benchmarks through catalyst-driven investing and extensive primary research. Current market dispersion and wide valuation spreads create favorable conditions for their approach. |
| Nov 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ABR, CLMT, MGNI, NFLX, NTDOY, VTY.L, ZIP | Advertising, aerospace, catalysts, concentrated, gaming, Long/Short, value |
NTDOY VTY.L MGNI |
Crossroads Capital's concentrated value strategy delivered 4.2% in Q3 despite market volatility from Japanese carry trade unwinding. Core positions including Nintendo, Magnite, and Calumet represent catalyst-rich opportunities with significant upside potential. Manager deployed cash opportunistically during August selloff while maintaining conviction in long-term thesis. Fund emphasizes patience and multi-year investment horizons for maximizing risk-adjusted returns. |
| Aug 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | NTDOY, VTY.L | Concentration, gaming, Homebuilders, Long/Short, small caps, value |
NTDOY VTY.L |
Concentrated value fund targeting catalyst-driven special situations and underfollowed growth companies. Key positions include Nintendo ahead of Switch 2 launch and UK homebuilder Vistry transforming to asset-light model with massive buyback program. Strong 15.9% net returns since 2016 through patient capital approach and superior risk management in inefficient market segments. |
| Apr 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, AWE.L, CLMT, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NTDOY, NVDA, NVR, THC, TSLA, VTY.L, XLK | AI, China, Energy Transition, gaming, Homebuilders, small caps, technology, value | - | Crossroads delivered 25.4% net returns in 2023 through concentrated positions in mispriced assets with catalysts. The fund's four key holdings span UK housing transformation, sustainable aviation fuel, AI networking infrastructure, and gaming platform evolution. Manager warns of systemic risks from mega-cap tech concentration while Chinese competitors gain share, positioning for dispersion-driven outperformance ahead. |
| Aug 31 2023 | 2022 Q4 | CLMT, RCM | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilBrent crude surged over 90% in Q1 due to Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. The oil market demonstrated complex adaptation as the system re-routed around the disruption through Chinese refinery adjustments, UAE leaving OPEC, and record US product exports. |
Brent Hormuz Supply shock Geopolitical Energy |
SPACsMerlin Labs entered public markets through SPAC channel, which institutional investors have been trained to ignore. The manager executed a paired arbitrage strategy and views the SPAC channel as creating opportunities due to market neglect. |
SPAC Arbitrage Institutional Neglect Opportunity | |
SpaceAST SpaceMobile is transitioning from R&D startup to operational scaleup with constellation buildout progressing. Manufacturing capacity supports over ten satellites per month, with 45 satellites targeted by year-end and commercial service authorization received. |
Satellites Constellation Manufacturing Commercial Buildout | |
Data CentersNebius secured $27B commitment from Meta for dedicated capacity and backstop arrangements. The company achieved $46B in committed contract value with AAA counterparties and is scaling platform with priority GPU allocation from Nvidia partnership. |
GPU Capacity Hyperscale Cloud Infrastructure | |
Aviation ServicesFTAI Aviation operates leading MRO franchise for CFM56 engines, transforming to capital-light model through Strategic Capital Initiative. The company creates green time through vertically-integrated platform using proprietary PMA parts. |
MRO CFM56 Green time PMA Aftermarket | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI infrastructure plays dominated 2025 returns, with 65% of Russell 2000's return coming from AI infrastructure. The manager views this as a concentrated market levered to a singular theme - essentially a bet on how much CAPEX five companies will spend building data centers. Questions whether the AI trade will persist given its concentration. |
Infrastructure Data Centers CAPEX |
Small CapsSmall caps continued to underperform large caps in 2025. The Russell 2000's returns were dominated by AI infrastructure plays and speculative unprofitable companies. The manager notes extreme bifurcation between unprofitable stocks and quality stocks, with quality businesses trading at historically cheap multiples. |
Russell 2000 Quality Valuation | |
ValueQuality businesses today trade at historically cheap multiples due to extreme valuation disparities between winners and losers. The manager believes if earnings are the long-term driver of stock prices, the current market dynamics will ultimately reverse in favor of quality value stocks. |
Quality Multiples Earnings | |
| 2025 Q3 |
ValueCrossroads focuses on value-based investing, seeking businesses trading at large discounts to intrinsic value with clear catalysts. The fund emphasizes purchasing securities at the largest possible discount to conservative estimates of fair value, with a margin of safety approach that has driven consistent outperformance since inception. |
Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety Discount Catalysts Undervalued |
Small CapsThe fund primarily targets small-cap companies with market caps of $100 million to $5 billion, believing this segment offers structural inefficiencies due to limited institutional coverage. Small companies allow for more thorough due diligence and higher conviction levels while benefiting from the law of large numbers for growth potential. |
Market Cap Institutional Coverage Due Diligence Growth Potential Inefficiencies | |
QualityCrossroads emphasizes high-quality businesses with strong fundamentals including shareholder-oriented management, high barriers to entry, strong returns on capital, and limited debt dependence. The fund seeks companies with defensive operating models, staying power, and cash flow inflection points. |
Management Quality Barriers to Entry Returns on Capital Cash Flow Defensive | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GamingNintendo delivered a blockbuster quarter with the Switch 2's record-breaking launch, selling 5.82 million units in 25 days and becoming the fastest-selling console in industry history. The company is transforming from cyclical earnings to secular growth with its Apple-like iterative hardware model and expanding digital entertainment ecosystem. |
Console Switch Hardware Software Digital |
Satellite BroadbandAST SpaceMobile is pioneering space-based cellular broadband to eliminate coverage gaps and bring affordable broadband to billions. The company is transitioning from narrative to execution with manufacturing cadence ramping to 6 satellites per month and commercial service beginning in 2026. |
LEO Direct-to-device Connectivity Infrastructure Global | |
Trade PolicyMarkets demonstrated resilience to tariff uncertainty in Q2, with the S&P 500 recovering from 20% declines to post fresh highs. The administration's negotiating patterns became clearer, with markets learning to distinguish between meaningful policy changes and negotiating theater. |
Tariffs Negotiations Uncertainty Policy Recovery | |
Small CapsSmall company stocks continue to offer an unusually fertile hunting ground for outsized risk-adjusted wealth creation despite ongoing underperformance versus large caps. The fund has substantially outperformed benchmarks without owning any S&P 500 names or mega-cap tech growth darlings. |
Value Underperformance Opportunities Inefficiency Outperformance | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe administration announced reciprocal tariffs creating market uncertainty and forcing businesses into a holding pattern. Tariffs are viewed as regressive taxes that inject uncertainty rather than fix trade deficits. The fund positioned defensively against tariff-related disruption while maintaining conviction in long-term value creation. |
Tariffs Reciprocal Uncertainty Policy China |
GamingNintendo's Switch 2 launch represents a transformational catalyst with pre-orders starting April 24th. The console enters an existing software ecosystem for the first time, enabling profit growth from a $4 billion base rather than starting from zero. Enhanced hardware allows comprehensive AAA third-party support including Call of Duty and GTA 6. |
Nintendo Switch Console Software AAA | |
AdvertisingMagnite benefits from Netflix's programmatic advertising adoption and potential Google ad tech breakup. Netflix's ad tier could deliver $6 billion in spend with half flowing through Magnite at low-single-digit take rates. DOJ ruling found Google monopolized supply-side display advertising, creating market share opportunities. |
Programmatic Netflix Google AdTech CTV | |
AerospaceFTAI Aviation transformed into a pure-play aerospace platform focused on CFM56 engine modules. The company built network effects through the largest pool of modules and internalized MRO capabilities. The $4 billion Strategic Capital Initiative provides growth capital for recurring earnings generation. |
CFM56 MRO Modules Aftermarket Aviation | |
HomebuildersVistry Group transitions to a partnerships model combining resources of local authorities and housing associations for capital-light construction. The model pre-sells over 50% of homes at affordable prices, reducing cyclicality and interest rate sensitivity while improving return on capital. |
Partnerships Affordable Capital-light UK Housing | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueFund focuses on value-based investing with concentrated, catalyst-driven approach targeting businesses trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. Emphasizes purchasing securities at largest possible discount to conservative estimate of fair value with margin of safety. |
Undervalued Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety Discount Fair Value |
Small CapsPrimary focus on small-cap companies with market caps of $100 million to $5 billion. Strategy targets underfollowed growth companies with limited institutional ownership that are underappreciated by the market. |
Small Cap Underfollowed Limited Institutional Emerging Growth | |
| 2024 Q3 |
GamingNintendo represents a major position with the Switch 2 launch expected early 2025, opening the ecosystem to third-party AAA games and higher-spending gamers. The company is building a Nintendo Cinematic Universe with one movie per year planned over five years. Strong earnings growth expected from new console cycle and expanded monetization. |
Console Switch Entertainment IP Hardware |
AdvertisingMagnite is positioned as the largest independent programmatic sell-side platform, with significant exposure to Connected TV advertising growth. Netflix contract win validates differentiation, with potential for $70 million EBITDA increase from Netflix alone. Google ad tech breakup could provide 5-10x upside opportunity. |
Programmatic CTV Netflix Google AdTech | |
Sustainable Aviation FuelCalumet's Montana Renewables facility received DoE conditional approval in October, validating the thesis. MaxSAF scenario could generate over $800 million EBITDA medium-term. Company positioned as first-mover in SAF market with multiple value-unlocking catalysts ahead. |
SAF DoE Refineries Biofuels Energy | |
HomebuildersVistry Group is transitioning to pure-play partnerships model, pre-selling over 50% of homes to reduce cyclicality. Labour government provides tailwinds for affordable housing development. Company targets 30k+ home completions long-term versus current 20k goal, trading at significant discount to peers. |
Partnerships Affordable Labour UK Housing | |
AerospaceNew position in aftermarket supplier benefits from flight hours at all-time highs and defense spending increases. Company has earnings visibility through 2040 representing 90% of current market cap. Majority of earnings from aftermarket with guaranteed cash flows for aircraft life spanning 30+ years. |
Aftermarket Defense Visibility Contracts Aviation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
GamingNintendo represents a leading integrated hardware/software videogame platform business with popular franchises. The Switch platform aims to become indefinitely-lived like Apple's iPhone, with a growing user base rather than resetting with each console generation. Nintendo is aggressively leveraging world-class IP via movies, licensing, theme parks, and other sources of latent optionality. |
Console Platform IP Entertainment Ecosystem |
HomebuildersVistry Group is a UK-based homebuilder pivoting to an economically resilient, asset-light, high-ROIC partnerships business model. The transition involves moving from traditional capital-intensive homebuilding to partnerships where local housing authorities contribute land and Vistry provides construction expertise. This model offers 60-70% presold homes, dramatically reducing revenue volatility and limiting capital outlays. |
Asset-light Partnerships ROIC Buybacks Transformation | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIManager discusses AI as a revolutionary technology driving data center infrastructure investment and creating bottlenecks in networking. Highlights Alphawave Semi's exposure to AI-driven demand with 60% of pipeline tied to AI applications. |
Data Centers Networking Infrastructure Semiconductors Hyperscalers |
GamingExtensive analysis of Nintendo's transformation from cyclical hardware business to platform ecosystem similar to Apple's iPhone model. Switch platform creating evergreen software library with recurring revenue streams. |
Nintendo Platform Ecosystem Digital Entertainment | |
HomebuildersDeep dive into UK housing supply shortage and Vistry Group's transition to capital-light partnerships model. UK needs 4-6 million additional homes representing 20-25% supply deficit. |
Housing Partnerships Capital Light UK Supply Shortage | |
Sustainable Aviation FuelDiscussion of Calumet's Montana Renewables SAF refinery and potential DOE loan. SAF market nowhere near supply/demand equilibrium with significant growth runway ahead. |
SAF Refining DOE Loan Energy Transition Aviation | |
ChinaExtensive analysis of Chinese competition threat to Magnificent Seven companies. Chinese firms like Huawei and BYD gaining market share with government backing and willingness to compete at lower margins. |
Competition Huawei BYD Market Share Geopolitical | |
ValueManager advocates for value investing approach focused on mispriced assets with catalysts. Emphasizes importance of margin of safety and catalyst-driven event paths for value recognition. |
Mispriced Catalysts Margin of Safety Event Driven Undervalued |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | MRLN | Merlin Labs | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, AI-powered systems, arbitrage, Autonomous Aviation, SPAC, Special Situation, technology | Login |
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | Communication Equipment | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Direct-to-Device, government contracts, Manufacturing Scale, satellite constellation, Space-Based Cellular, Spectrum Rights, telecommunications | Login |
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NBIS | Nebius Group | Internet Content & Information | IT Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Cloud computing, data centers, GPU computing, Meta Contract, Nvidia partnership, Power Capacity, Software Stack | Login |
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | FTAI | FTAI Aviation | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aviation MRO, CFM56 engines, Engine Leasing, FTAI Power, Gas turbines, Module Manufacturing, PMA Parts, Strategic Capital Initiative | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | Dubai Financial Market | Ecosystem Monetization, Installed base, IP Licensing, Margin Misperception, Pricing power, recurring revenue, Software Attach Rate | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | Commercial Agreements, Convertible Financing, defense contracts, Launch Cadence, LEO Constellation, Manufacturing Scale, Spectrum Allocation | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | NBIS | Nebius Group N.V. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Capacity Buildout, Capital Markets Access, cloud platform, contracted power, hyperscaler contracts, Inference Demand, Utilization Ramp | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | FTAI | FTAI Aviation Ltd. | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NASDAQ | Aftermarket Margins, Asset Management Fees, capital-light model, Engine Exchanges, Green Time, Key Concepts Include MRO Franchise, operating leverage, PMA Parts | Login |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | Console, Digital Ecosystem, entertainment, Gaming, growth, Hardware, Intellectual Property, Japan, Software | Login |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Cellular, Direct-to-Device, Emerging markets, growth, infrastructure, LEO, Satellite, Space Technology, telecommunications | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | Console, digital sales, Ecosystem, entertainment, Gaming, IP monetization, Japan, Movies, theme parks | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | VTY.L | Vistry Group PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | London Stock Exchange | affordable housing, Capital-light, government contracts, homebuilding, Partnerships, transformation, UK, Value | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | MGNI | Magnite, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, Connected tv, digital advertising, Google Antitrust, Netflix, programmatic advertising, SSP, Streaming | Login |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | digital distribution, Ecosystem, entertainment, Gaming, growth, Hardware, Ip, Japan, platform, Software | Login |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | VTY.L | Vistry Group PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | London Stock Exchange | asset-light, buybacks, defensive, homebuilding, JV, Partnerships, Real Estate, transformation, UK, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | FTAI | FTAI Aviation | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, aftermarket, Aviation, Capital-light, CFM56, Modules, MRO, network effects | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | CLMT | Calumet Specialty Products | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bear | NASDAQ | Biofuels, EPA, management issues, Renewable diesel, SAF, specialty chemicals, strategic sale, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | AAA Games, Console, Ecosystem, Gaming, Ip, Microtransactions, Movies, Switch 2, theme parks | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | VTY.L | Vistry PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | LSE | affordable housing, Capital-light, Government, homebuilding, Partnerships, Roce, UK, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | MGNI | Magnite | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, antitrust, CTV, Google Breakup, Netflix, Programmatic, SSP, Streaming | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MRLN | Our largest contributor was Merlin Labs (MRLN), contributing to 40% of our Q1 net gains, as it started trading as a public company in mid-March and we both closed out the short position on the common as our rights converted and took advantage of the early-days volatility. We detailed our thesis extensively in a published research report, but the early price action is consistent with what we expected: a tiny public float, locked-up insiders, and a market that hasn't done the work yet on a name that entered through the SPAC channel—the one channel institutional investors have been trained to ignore. We suspect the repricing has barely started, so the company is firmly in both our special situations bucket and our emerging compounder bucket if milestones are met. |
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) contributed 23% of our gains in Q1, continuing to reward patience as the constellation buildout progresses and the market slowly digests the implications of what this company has already demonstrated. Q1 picked up exactly where Q4 left off. The company's transition from R&D-stage startup to operational scaleup, which we described last quarter, went from underway to unmistakable over the course of the last three months. The company's early March earnings update showed full-year 2025 revenue came in at $70.9M, at the top end of the guided range, driven by 15 commercial gateway deliveries across nine MNO customers on five continents and milestones against ten active government contracts. 2026 revenue guidance is $150–200M, at least a doubling, and management gave clarity and context to the $1.2B of contracted backlog and government-related scaling we should see into next year. Pro forma liquidity stands near $3.5B, which is more than enough to fund the constellation buildout and get AST to commercial service without going back to the market. |
| FTAI | FTAI Aviation contributed 17%, and Nebius (NBIS) contributed 14%; both are names where our original thesis remains intact and the businesses themselves continue to execute. A year ago, FTAI Aviation sat in our special situations bucket, navigating a coordinated short-seller campaign that sent the stock into the low-$80s and created an entry that looked uncomfortable in real time, but had the potential to be a long-term holding. Our original thesis was borne out, but also evolved in advantageous ways, so the company graduated from special situation to emerging compounder. FTAI is a leading MRO franchise for the CFM56 and is transforming into a capital-light, high-visibility model with its Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI), protected by an irreplaceable competitive advantage in PMA parts. |
| NBIS | Nebius (NBIS) contributed 14%; both are names where our original thesis remains intact and the businesses themselves continue to execute. When we first bought NBIS in late 2025, the bear case wrote itself. Nebius was a freshly re-listed carve-out of Yandex, operating a modest data center with a few co-locations across Europe, and a customer book composed almost entirely of VC-backed AI natives and other small, unproven firms. One year later, the questions that defined that bear case have been answered in sequence, and not one of them broke the wrong way. Late in 2025, NBIS added META to its customer list with a ~$3B capacity-constrained contract. In March, that became a $27B five-year commitment in two pieces: $12B of dedicated capacity on one of the first large-scale Vera Rubin deployments starting in early 2027, and a further $15B in which Meta commits to backstop Nebius's uncommitted third-party capacity as it comes online. |
| NTDOY | On the downside, Nintendo (NTDOY) was our largest detractor, comprising 35% of our losses, followed by Vistry (VTY) at 19% and Company X at 13%. On Nintendo, the market remains fixated on near-term memory prices and we continue to believe that investors are missing the forest for the trees. In the last three months, two of the three pillars of the bear thesis we walked through last quarter quickly crumbled. Their collapse didn't vindicate the bull case outright, as memory pricing is still a live debate. But tariff impacts and the no first-half system sellers takes are off the table. We plan to publish a standalone piece on the memory cycle and the year ahead for the company, whose prospects we believe the market is discarding wholesale amid trend-following taken to its extreme. |
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