| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 17.9% | 11.5% | 16.2% |
Crossroads Capital returned 11.5% net in Q2 2026 as market broadening accelerated with Russell 2000 posting best first half since 1991. The fund's concentrated portfolio of smaller, underfollowed businesses with hard catalysts benefited from positions built and defended through earlier volatility. Nebius contributed 55% of net gains as it evolved from below-liquidation-value carveout to AI hyperscaler with $46B in committed contracts from Microsoft and Meta, 50% EBITDA margins, and priority Nvidia silicon. AST SpaceMobile transitioned from R&D startup to operational scaleup with 12 satellites in orbit, FCC authorization for 248-satellite constellation, and manufacturing at 6 satellites per month. Nintendo detracted 53% of losses as market marked it to two-year lows on memory headwinds despite operating profit up 150% and implicit FY2027 guidance raise of 30%. FTAI Aviation's MRO business doubled Aerospace Products revenue while securing $1.465B order for data center power generation. Manager used July momentum unwind to close covered calls at profit and add to positions, viewing volatility as flows problem with short half-lives rather than fundamental deterioration. Portfolio remains positioned for company-specific catalysts independent of macro direction.
Crossroads Capital owns concentrated positions in smaller, underfollowed businesses trading at deep discounts to medium-term earnings power, with identifiable value-unlocking transformations and hard catalysts that don't depend on macro direction.
Manager expects fundamentals to pull price back to closer correlation with earnings on their schedule, not the market's, with risk/reward across several names as attractive as anything seen since April lows. The market's composure will be tested again with Iran situation resurfacing, but nothing in portfolio depends on guessing direction right. Strategy remains focused on businesses with identifiable value-unlocking transformations and hard catalysts, sized to hold through fog. Dispersion created by Fed's withdrawal of forward guidance expected to create framework mispricings that are core element of investment style. Manager welcomes less narration from Fed as it increases raw material of active management.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ASTS, BE, FTAI, META, MSFT, NBIS, NTDOY, NVDA, T, TMUS, TTWO, VBNK, VZ | AI, Aviation Services, catalysts, Concentration, gaming, semiconductors, small caps, Space | - | Crossroads returned 11.5% net in Q2 as concentrated small-cap portfolio captured market broadening. Nebius emerged as AI hyperscaler with $46B contracts and 50% margins. AST SpaceMobile scaled to 12 satellites with FCC authorization for 248-satellite constellation. Nintendo marked down on memory headwinds despite 150% profit growth. FTAI secured $1.5B data center power order. Manager added to positions during July momentum unwind, maintaining focus on hard catalysts independent of macro. |
| May 22 2026 | 2026 Q1 | ASTS, FTAI, MRLN, NBIS, NTDOY | Aviation, Complex Systems, Oil Shock, small cap, Space, special situations, technology |
MRLN ASTS NBIS FTAI |
Crossroads outperformed in Q1 despite oil shock, benefiting from market broadening and special situations execution. Merlin Labs SPAC conversion and AST SpaceMobile constellation progress drove gains while Nintendo memory concerns created headwinds. Manager sees market adaptation to Trump volatility creating opportunities in smaller, catalyst-driven names with hard value-unlocking transformations. |
| Feb 26 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ASTS, CLMT, FTAI, META, MSFT, NBIS, NTDOY, NVDA, ORCL, PLTR | aerospace, AI, gaming, growth, small cap, Space, technology, value |
NTDOY ASTS NBIS FTAI |
Crossroads delivered 37.7% net returns in 2025 versus 17.9% for the S&P 500, driven by exceptional performance from Nintendo's record-breaking Switch 2 launch, AST SpaceMobile's commercial transition, and Nebius Group's AI infrastructure scaling. The fund benefited from improving small-cap market dynamics and remains positioned for continued outperformance through high-conviction, idiosyncratic growth businesses trading at discounts to intrinsic value. |
| Dec 9 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ^SP500TR, BUFIX, IWN, ZPRS.DE | catalysts, concentrated, long-term, Outperformance, Quality, small caps, special situations, value | - | Crossroads Capital is a concentrated small-cap value fund delivering 17.3% net annualized returns since 2016 inception, significantly outperforming benchmarks. The fund exploits structural inefficiencies in small-cap markets through catalyst-driven investing in high-quality businesses trading at deep discounts to intrinsic value, maintaining 10-15 concentrated positions with strong risk management and patient capital approach. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ASTS, ET, FTAI, GOOGL, META, MGNI, MRO, NBIS, NTDOY | Concentration, gaming, Satellite, small caps, technology, Trade Policy, value |
NTDOY ASTS |
Crossroads delivered 36.9% net returns in Q2 2025, led by Nintendo's record-breaking Switch 2 launch and AST SpaceMobile's space-based broadband execution. The concentrated small-cap value strategy continues substantial outperformance without owning mega-cap tech. Markets proved resilient to tariff uncertainty. Manager maintains high conviction in core positions as 'coiled springs' with value-unlocking catalysts ahead. |
| Apr 25 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, CLMT, DAR, FTAI, GOOGL, MGNI, NFLX, NTDOY, NVR, VTY.L | Advertising, aerospace, gaming, Homebuilders, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy, value |
FTAI CLMT NTDOY VTY.L MGNI |
Crossroads navigated Q1 tariff volatility by shifting to trade-war-resilient holdings while maintaining cash for opportunities. Key positions include Nintendo's Switch 2 transformation, FTAI's aerospace pivot, and Magnite's advertising platform benefits. Despite -7.6% quarterly decline, the fund recovered to -1.6% YTD and continues outperforming with 13.3% annualized returns since inception through disciplined value investing. |
| Mar 2 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | Concentration, Long/Short, small caps, special situations, value | - | Crossroads Capital runs a concentrated small-cap value strategy targeting underfollowed companies undergoing value-unlocking change. Since 2016 inception, the fund has delivered 14.8% net annualized returns, significantly outperforming benchmarks through catalyst-driven investing and extensive primary research. Current market dispersion and wide valuation spreads create favorable conditions for their approach. |
| Nov 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ABR, CLMT, MGNI, NFLX, NTDOY, VTY.L, ZIP | Advertising, aerospace, catalysts, concentrated, gaming, Long/Short, value |
NTDOY VTY.L MGNI |
Crossroads Capital's concentrated value strategy delivered 4.2% in Q3 despite market volatility from Japanese carry trade unwinding. Core positions including Nintendo, Magnite, and Calumet represent catalyst-rich opportunities with significant upside potential. Manager deployed cash opportunistically during August selloff while maintaining conviction in long-term thesis. Fund emphasizes patience and multi-year investment horizons for maximizing risk-adjusted returns. |
| Aug 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | NTDOY, VTY.L | Concentration, gaming, Homebuilders, Long/Short, small caps, value |
NTDOY VTY.L |
Concentrated value fund targeting catalyst-driven special situations and underfollowed growth companies. Key positions include Nintendo ahead of Switch 2 launch and UK homebuilder Vistry transforming to asset-light model with massive buyback program. Strong 15.9% net returns since 2016 through patient capital approach and superior risk management in inefficient market segments. |
| Apr 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, AWE.L, CLMT, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NTDOY, NVDA, NVR, THC, TSLA, VTY.L, XLK | AI, China, Energy Transition, gaming, Homebuilders, small caps, technology, value | - | Crossroads delivered 25.4% net returns in 2023 through concentrated positions in mispriced assets with catalysts. The fund's four key holdings span UK housing transformation, sustainable aviation fuel, AI networking infrastructure, and gaming platform evolution. Manager warns of systemic risks from mega-cap tech concentration while Chinese competitors gain share, positioning for dispersion-driven outperformance ahead. |
| Aug 31 2023 | 2022 Q4 | CLMT, RCM | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIAI infrastructure buildout accelerated in Q2 with semiconductors posting 25% earnings growth and memory prices inflating into consumer electronics. Nebius emerged as a scaled AI hyperscaler with $46B in committed contract value from Microsoft and Meta, 50% EBITDA margins, and priority Nvidia silicon. The company is positioned to collect rent on ASIC buildout without taking silicon risk, with pricing reaching $40-50M per megawatt for short-duration contracts. |
AI Infrastructure Hyperscaler Data Centers GPUs Inference |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor sector experienced extraordinary performance in first half 2026 with index earnings growth up nearly 25%. Memory prices inflated rapidly enough to impact consumer electronics pricing. However, the sector experienced a 27% drawdown in July as momentum unwind hit, though it has since rallied off lows. Manager views this as flows problem rather than fundamentals problem. |
Memory Chip Pricing Semiconductor Cycle Earnings Growth | |
SpaceAST SpaceMobile transitioned from R&D startup to operational scaleup with 12 BlueBirds in orbit, manufacturing at 6 satellites per month, and targeting 45 satellites in early 2027. The company secured commercial FCC authorization for up to 248 satellites, added partnerships covering 3 billion subscribers, and layered government contracts including $30M from Space Development Agency. Multi-satellite launches shifted launch math from additive to multiplicative. |
Satellites Direct-to-Device Constellation Launch Cadence Government Contracts | |
GamingNintendo's Switch 2 beat Q2 expectations with operating profit up 150%, and outside of transitory tariff and memory headwinds, the company implicitly raised FY 2027 guidance 30%. The combination of increasing attached users via best-in-class Switch 2 and monetization of evergreen digital library is bearing fruit. However, market marked the stock to two-year lows amid macro concerns and momentum selling, with quant funds trading it as inverse-memory trade. |
Console Cycle Digital Library Switch 2 Attached Users | |
OilBrent crude experienced extreme volatility, surging over 90% in Q1 as Strait of Hormuz closed, then falling 38% in Q2 (worst quarter since pandemic) from $120 to under $73 as ceasefire was brokered and tanker traffic partially resumed. UAE exited OPEC after 59 years in most significant departure in cartel's history. As of August writing, Iran MOU declared over with strikes resumed and crude climbing again. |
Brent Strait of Hormuz OPEC Geopolitical Risk Supply Disruption | |
Small CapsRussell 2000 posted best first half since 1991, up roughly 22% with nearly all gains in last 13 weeks. Equal-weight, small-cap, microcap, and value benchmarks all made new all-time highs. Market broadening accelerated with blended Q2 growth for S&P 500 tracking near 25% and fastest revenue growth since 2022. By Q4, the other 493 companies projected to outperform Magnificent 7 outright, creating constructive backdrop for smaller, underfollowed businesses. |
Russell 2000 Market Breadth Earnings Growth Rotation | |
MomentumMSCI USA Momentum Index rose ~33% through June then experienced washout in July with semiconductors down 27% and factor rotations churning underneath. Unprofitable companies in Russell 2000 up more than 150% since mid-2025, better than 4x the gain of profitable ones, which manager views as gamblers finding new table rather than genuine rotation. Funds that bought names without asking why now reflexively selling them as flows problem with short half-lives. |
Factor Rotation Momentum Unwind Flows Volatility | |
Aviation ServicesFTAI Aviation operates leading independent MRO franchise for CFM56 engine with vertically-integrated platform manufacturing green time through proprietary PMA parts. Aerospace Products revenue more than doubled with segment EBITDA up 70%. Company shifted toward asset-light model through Strategic Capital vehicles, raised dividend for third consecutive quarter, and signed multi-year materials agreement with CFM International. FTAI Power secured $1.465B initial order for Mod-1 mobile generator sets from cloud service provider. |
MRO CFM56 Asset-Light Power Generation Data Center Power | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilBrent crude surged over 90% in Q1 due to Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. The oil market demonstrated complex adaptation as the system re-routed around the disruption through Chinese refinery adjustments, UAE leaving OPEC, and record US product exports. |
Brent Hormuz Supply shock Geopolitical Energy |
SPACsMerlin Labs entered public markets through SPAC channel, which institutional investors have been trained to ignore. The manager executed a paired arbitrage strategy and views the SPAC channel as creating opportunities due to market neglect. |
SPAC Arbitrage Institutional Neglect Opportunity | |
SpaceAST SpaceMobile is transitioning from R&D startup to operational scaleup with constellation buildout progressing. Manufacturing capacity supports over ten satellites per month, with 45 satellites targeted by year-end and commercial service authorization received. |
Satellites Constellation Manufacturing Commercial Buildout | |
Data CentersNebius secured $27B commitment from Meta for dedicated capacity and backstop arrangements. The company achieved $46B in committed contract value with AAA counterparties and is scaling platform with priority GPU allocation from Nvidia partnership. |
GPU Capacity Hyperscale Cloud Infrastructure | |
Aviation ServicesFTAI Aviation operates leading MRO franchise for CFM56 engines, transforming to capital-light model through Strategic Capital Initiative. The company creates green time through vertically-integrated platform using proprietary PMA parts. |
MRO CFM56 Green time PMA Aftermarket | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI infrastructure plays dominated 2025 returns, with 65% of Russell 2000's return coming from AI infrastructure. The manager views this as a concentrated market levered to a singular theme - essentially a bet on how much CAPEX five companies will spend building data centers. Questions whether the AI trade will persist given its concentration. |
Infrastructure Data Centers CAPEX |
Small CapsSmall caps continued to underperform large caps in 2025. The Russell 2000's returns were dominated by AI infrastructure plays and speculative unprofitable companies. The manager notes extreme bifurcation between unprofitable stocks and quality stocks, with quality businesses trading at historically cheap multiples. |
Russell 2000 Quality Valuation | |
ValueQuality businesses today trade at historically cheap multiples due to extreme valuation disparities between winners and losers. The manager believes if earnings are the long-term driver of stock prices, the current market dynamics will ultimately reverse in favor of quality value stocks. |
Quality Multiples Earnings | |
| 2025 Q3 |
ValueCrossroads focuses on value-based investing, seeking businesses trading at large discounts to intrinsic value with clear catalysts. The fund emphasizes purchasing securities at the largest possible discount to conservative estimates of fair value, with a margin of safety approach that has driven consistent outperformance since inception. |
Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety Discount Catalysts Undervalued |
Small CapsThe fund primarily targets small-cap companies with market caps of $100 million to $5 billion, believing this segment offers structural inefficiencies due to limited institutional coverage. Small companies allow for more thorough due diligence and higher conviction levels while benefiting from the law of large numbers for growth potential. |
Market Cap Institutional Coverage Due Diligence Growth Potential Inefficiencies | |
QualityCrossroads emphasizes high-quality businesses with strong fundamentals including shareholder-oriented management, high barriers to entry, strong returns on capital, and limited debt dependence. The fund seeks companies with defensive operating models, staying power, and cash flow inflection points. |
Management Quality Barriers to Entry Returns on Capital Cash Flow Defensive | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GamingNintendo delivered a blockbuster quarter with the Switch 2's record-breaking launch, selling 5.82 million units in 25 days and becoming the fastest-selling console in industry history. The company is transforming from cyclical earnings to secular growth with its Apple-like iterative hardware model and expanding digital entertainment ecosystem. |
Console Switch Hardware Software Digital |
Satellite BroadbandAST SpaceMobile is pioneering space-based cellular broadband to eliminate coverage gaps and bring affordable broadband to billions. The company is transitioning from narrative to execution with manufacturing cadence ramping to 6 satellites per month and commercial service beginning in 2026. |
LEO Direct-to-device Connectivity Infrastructure Global | |
Trade PolicyMarkets demonstrated resilience to tariff uncertainty in Q2, with the S&P 500 recovering from 20% declines to post fresh highs. The administration's negotiating patterns became clearer, with markets learning to distinguish between meaningful policy changes and negotiating theater. |
Tariffs Negotiations Uncertainty Policy Recovery | |
Small CapsSmall company stocks continue to offer an unusually fertile hunting ground for outsized risk-adjusted wealth creation despite ongoing underperformance versus large caps. The fund has substantially outperformed benchmarks without owning any S&P 500 names or mega-cap tech growth darlings. |
Value Underperformance Opportunities Inefficiency Outperformance | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe administration announced reciprocal tariffs creating market uncertainty and forcing businesses into a holding pattern. Tariffs are viewed as regressive taxes that inject uncertainty rather than fix trade deficits. The fund positioned defensively against tariff-related disruption while maintaining conviction in long-term value creation. |
Tariffs Reciprocal Uncertainty Policy China |
GamingNintendo's Switch 2 launch represents a transformational catalyst with pre-orders starting April 24th. The console enters an existing software ecosystem for the first time, enabling profit growth from a $4 billion base rather than starting from zero. Enhanced hardware allows comprehensive AAA third-party support including Call of Duty and GTA 6. |
Nintendo Switch Console Software AAA | |
AdvertisingMagnite benefits from Netflix's programmatic advertising adoption and potential Google ad tech breakup. Netflix's ad tier could deliver $6 billion in spend with half flowing through Magnite at low-single-digit take rates. DOJ ruling found Google monopolized supply-side display advertising, creating market share opportunities. |
Programmatic Netflix Google AdTech CTV | |
AerospaceFTAI Aviation transformed into a pure-play aerospace platform focused on CFM56 engine modules. The company built network effects through the largest pool of modules and internalized MRO capabilities. The $4 billion Strategic Capital Initiative provides growth capital for recurring earnings generation. |
CFM56 MRO Modules Aftermarket Aviation | |
HomebuildersVistry Group transitions to a partnerships model combining resources of local authorities and housing associations for capital-light construction. The model pre-sells over 50% of homes at affordable prices, reducing cyclicality and interest rate sensitivity while improving return on capital. |
Partnerships Affordable Capital-light UK Housing | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueFund focuses on value-based investing with concentrated, catalyst-driven approach targeting businesses trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. Emphasizes purchasing securities at largest possible discount to conservative estimate of fair value with margin of safety. |
Undervalued Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety Discount Fair Value |
Small CapsPrimary focus on small-cap companies with market caps of $100 million to $5 billion. Strategy targets underfollowed growth companies with limited institutional ownership that are underappreciated by the market. |
Small Cap Underfollowed Limited Institutional Emerging Growth | |
| 2024 Q3 |
GamingNintendo represents a major position with the Switch 2 launch expected early 2025, opening the ecosystem to third-party AAA games and higher-spending gamers. The company is building a Nintendo Cinematic Universe with one movie per year planned over five years. Strong earnings growth expected from new console cycle and expanded monetization. |
Console Switch Entertainment IP Hardware |
AdvertisingMagnite is positioned as the largest independent programmatic sell-side platform, with significant exposure to Connected TV advertising growth. Netflix contract win validates differentiation, with potential for $70 million EBITDA increase from Netflix alone. Google ad tech breakup could provide 5-10x upside opportunity. |
Programmatic CTV Netflix Google AdTech | |
Sustainable Aviation FuelCalumet's Montana Renewables facility received DoE conditional approval in October, validating the thesis. MaxSAF scenario could generate over $800 million EBITDA medium-term. Company positioned as first-mover in SAF market with multiple value-unlocking catalysts ahead. |
SAF DoE Refineries Biofuels Energy | |
HomebuildersVistry Group is transitioning to pure-play partnerships model, pre-selling over 50% of homes to reduce cyclicality. Labour government provides tailwinds for affordable housing development. Company targets 30k+ home completions long-term versus current 20k goal, trading at significant discount to peers. |
Partnerships Affordable Labour UK Housing | |
AerospaceNew position in aftermarket supplier benefits from flight hours at all-time highs and defense spending increases. Company has earnings visibility through 2040 representing 90% of current market cap. Majority of earnings from aftermarket with guaranteed cash flows for aircraft life spanning 30+ years. |
Aftermarket Defense Visibility Contracts Aviation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
GamingNintendo represents a leading integrated hardware/software videogame platform business with popular franchises. The Switch platform aims to become indefinitely-lived like Apple's iPhone, with a growing user base rather than resetting with each console generation. Nintendo is aggressively leveraging world-class IP via movies, licensing, theme parks, and other sources of latent optionality. |
Console Platform IP Entertainment Ecosystem |
HomebuildersVistry Group is a UK-based homebuilder pivoting to an economically resilient, asset-light, high-ROIC partnerships business model. The transition involves moving from traditional capital-intensive homebuilding to partnerships where local housing authorities contribute land and Vistry provides construction expertise. This model offers 60-70% presold homes, dramatically reducing revenue volatility and limiting capital outlays. |
Asset-light Partnerships ROIC Buybacks Transformation | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIManager discusses AI as a revolutionary technology driving data center infrastructure investment and creating bottlenecks in networking. Highlights Alphawave Semi's exposure to AI-driven demand with 60% of pipeline tied to AI applications. |
Data Centers Networking Infrastructure Semiconductors Hyperscalers |
GamingExtensive analysis of Nintendo's transformation from cyclical hardware business to platform ecosystem similar to Apple's iPhone model. Switch platform creating evergreen software library with recurring revenue streams. |
Nintendo Platform Ecosystem Digital Entertainment | |
HomebuildersDeep dive into UK housing supply shortage and Vistry Group's transition to capital-light partnerships model. UK needs 4-6 million additional homes representing 20-25% supply deficit. |
Housing Partnerships Capital Light UK Supply Shortage | |
Sustainable Aviation FuelDiscussion of Calumet's Montana Renewables SAF refinery and potential DOE loan. SAF market nowhere near supply/demand equilibrium with significant growth runway ahead. |
SAF Refining DOE Loan Energy Transition Aviation | |
ChinaExtensive analysis of Chinese competition threat to Magnificent Seven companies. Chinese firms like Huawei and BYD gaining market share with government backing and willingness to compete at lower margins. |
Competition Huawei BYD Market Share Geopolitical | |
ValueManager advocates for value investing approach focused on mispriced assets with catalysts. Emphasizes importance of margin of safety and catalyst-driven event paths for value recognition. |
Mispriced Catalysts Margin of Safety Event Driven Undervalued |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | MRLN | Merlin Labs | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, AI-powered systems, arbitrage, Autonomous Aviation, SPAC, Special Situation, technology | Login |
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | Communication Equipment | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Direct-to-Device, government contracts, Manufacturing Scale, satellite constellation, Space-Based Cellular, Spectrum Rights, telecommunications | Login |
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NBIS | Nebius Group | Internet Content & Information | IT Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Cloud computing, data centers, GPU computing, Meta Contract, Nvidia partnership, Power Capacity, Software Stack | Login |
| May 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | FTAI | FTAI Aviation | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aviation MRO, CFM56 engines, Engine Leasing, FTAI Power, Gas turbines, Module Manufacturing, PMA Parts, Strategic Capital Initiative | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | Dubai Financial Market | Ecosystem Monetization, Installed base, IP Licensing, Margin Misperception, Pricing power, recurring revenue, Software Attach Rate | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | Commercial Agreements, Convertible Financing, defense contracts, Launch Cadence, LEO Constellation, Manufacturing Scale, Spectrum Allocation | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | NBIS | Nebius Group N.V. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Capacity Buildout, Capital Markets Access, cloud platform, contracted power, hyperscaler contracts, Inference Demand, Utilization Ramp | Login |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan O'Connor | FTAI | FTAI Aviation Ltd. | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NASDAQ | Aftermarket Margins, Asset Management Fees, capital-light model, Engine Exchanges, Green Time, Key Concepts Include MRO Franchise, operating leverage, PMA Parts | Login |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | Console, Digital Ecosystem, entertainment, Gaming, growth, Hardware, Intellectual Property, Japan, Software | Login |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Cellular, Direct-to-Device, Emerging markets, growth, infrastructure, LEO, Satellite, Space Technology, telecommunications | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | Console, digital sales, Ecosystem, entertainment, Gaming, IP monetization, Japan, Movies, theme parks | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | VTY.L | Vistry Group PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | London Stock Exchange | affordable housing, Capital-light, government contracts, homebuilding, Partnerships, transformation, UK, Value | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | MGNI | Magnite, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, Connected tv, digital advertising, Google Antitrust, Netflix, programmatic advertising, SSP, Streaming | Login |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | digital distribution, Ecosystem, entertainment, Gaming, growth, Hardware, Ip, Japan, platform, Software | Login |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | VTY.L | Vistry Group PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | London Stock Exchange | asset-light, buybacks, defensive, homebuilding, JV, Partnerships, Real Estate, transformation, UK, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | FTAI | FTAI Aviation | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, aftermarket, Aviation, Capital-light, CFM56, Modules, MRO, network effects | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | CLMT | Calumet Specialty Products | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bear | NASDAQ | Biofuels, EPA, management issues, Renewable diesel, SAF, specialty chemicals, strategic sale, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | NTDOY | Nintendo | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | AAA Games, Console, Ecosystem, Gaming, Ip, Microtransactions, Movies, Switch 2, theme parks | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | VTY.L | Vistry PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | LSE | affordable housing, Capital-light, Government, homebuilding, Partnerships, Roce, UK, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Crossroads Capital | MGNI | Magnite | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, antitrust, CTV, Google Breakup, Netflix, Programmatic, SSP, Streaming | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| NBIS | Our largest contributor was Nebius (NBIS), at 55% of our net gains. In Q1, we confessed we had sized it too slowly; in Q2, that point became moot. Our thesis has traveled from 'below liquidation value' to 'emerging AI hyperscaler' in less than two years. We have managed the position accordingly, but our view of the endgame hasn't changed. On August 12th, the company reported a second quarter with $582.3 million in revenue and a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin in its core AI cloud business. Today Nebius is an AI infrastructure platform with roughly $46B of committed contract value from Microsoft and Meta, priority Nvidia silicon secured through Nvidia's own $2B equity stake, and a target of almost 5 GW of contracted power by year-end (with over 75% of it owned rather than leased). Moreover, it has a funding structure in which roughly 50-60% of capex is covered by customer prepayments; the balance was raised this spring as $4B of oversubscribed convertibles with coupons of 1.25% and 2.625%. The Meta relationship remains the keystone: $27B over five years, split between $12B of dedicated capacity on one of the first large-scale Vera Rubin deployments (starting early 2027) and $15B on which Meta backstops Nebius's uncommitted third-party capacity as it comes online. First-quarter results, reported in May, printed $399M of revenue, up 684% year-over-year and 75% sequentially. The AI cloud business was up 841%, and adjusted EBITDA was positive at a 45% segment margin. Management raised its 2026 capex guidance from $16–20B to $20–25B and was explicit about why: pre-committed customer demand for 2027, not cost inflation, with more capacity coming online in the first half of 2027 than in all of 2026. Second quarter results built on the first quarter's momentum. Core deals averaged above $20 million per megawatt, with four landmark contracts (averaging over $1 billion each) clearing at $20 million to $25 million per megawatt. Short-duration contracts are now being negotiated at a significant premium, with pricing reaching $40 million to $50 million per megawatt. Structurally, Nebius is positioned to collect rent on the ASIC build-out without taking silicon risk. On July 15, with the stock in the middle of that drawdown, Nebius announced an asset-light extension of the model in which partners finance, own, and operate the data centers while Nebius supplies the systems architecture, supply-chain access, and software stack and sells the resulting capacity through its own global sales organization. We used the washout to close half of the Nebius calls we sold in June, repurchasing them well below where we wrote them, which is our covered-call program doing precisely what it exists to do. |
| VBNK | VersaBank (VBNK) contributed 23% to our net gains, as it gains more deserved attention from investors. |
| FTAI | FTAI Aviation contributed 5%, with the name being treated as Strait of Hormuz 'trading sardine', all of which will eventually give way to the fundamentals. FTAI entered the book eighteen months ago as a special situation, as a short seller campaign had marked the stock into the low $80s. However, it has since graduated to 'emerging compounder.' Today, FTAI is the leading independent MRO franchise for the CFM56, the most widely-flown engine on earth. It runs a vertically-integrated platform that manufactures 'green time' (remaining usable life) by tearing down older engines and rebuilding them with proprietary PMA parts and used serviceable material into modules that swap in days rather than months. The first quarter, reported in late April, showed the 2026 guidance of $1.625B in segment EBITDA was table stakes: Adjusted EBITDA came in at $325.6M and Aerospace Products revenue more than doubled with segment EBITDA up 70%. And 270 CFM56 modules were refurbished, up 96% year-over-year. The second quarter, reported late July, saw the Aviation Leasing segment guidance cut from $575M to $475M as part of the company's shift toward a more asset-light business model. With the Aerospace Products segment holding firm, the 2026 bridge now points to roughly $1.525B, with a new 2027 target of $2.3B introduced. The dividend was raised for a third consecutive quarter, and the multi-year materials agreement signed with CFM International means FTAI is now formally partnered with the very OEM it takes aftermarket share from. The capital-light transition is reaching its first payoff, as SCI I effectively deployed with 276 aircraft closed or under LOI against the $6B target. Meanwhile, FTAI Power moved from announcement to execution, and, in late July, to backlog. The Mod-1, a CFM56 converted to burn natural gas and deliver 25MW of dispatchable power, exists because 'time-to-power' is the key constraint for data centers facing multi-year turbine backlogs. Then, on July 22, J&F signed a five-year master supply agreement with a leading international cloud service provider, and, under it, an initial purchase order valued at $1.465 billion for Mod-1 mobile generator sets to be delivered in batches through November 2027. We also continued steady adds to FTAI and VersaBank during the quarter's weak patches. |
| NTDOY | On the other side of the ledger, Nintendo (NTDOY) was our largest detractor at 53% of our losses. The fastest-selling console in the company's history beat its second quarter expectations, with operating profit up 150%. In fact, outside of the transitory tariff and memory headwinds, the company implicitly raised their FY 2027 guidance 30%, and the combination of increasing attached users via the best-in-class Switch 2, and the monetization of their evergreen digital library, is bearing fruit. And yet, amidst macro concerns, the market marked our largest holding to two-year lows for the quarter, although it seems to be making amends for this transgression. Over the last three months, the debate on Nintendo has continued. We'll address it in a special long-form piece in the upcoming weeks. Either way, memory pricing is still a live debate, with tariffs impacts and the 'no first-half system sellers' takes off the table. Ultimately, we believe the market is discarding Nintendo wholesale amid trend-following taken to its extreme; quant funds and pod shops appear to be trading the name as an inverse-memory trade. In Nintendo, our largest holding, we added a little throughout the quarter as the memory cost guidance cut and price hike sent the stock to two-year lows. |
| TTWO | We also initiated a position in Take-Two Interactive Software in June (in the week Grand Theft Auto VI pre-orders opened), made up of the common stock plus December calls. Consider it adjacent to our core Nintendo work. |
| ASTS | On AST SpaceMobile, we wrote calls against the position early in the quarter (following Blue Origin's failure to launch BB7) and closed them at a profit. We then sold puts in May with strikes at which we were happy to be put more stock. When the SpaceX IPO gave everyone a reason to sell every space company that wasn't SpaceX, we took the other side, rebuying in late June at roughly the prices at which we'd sold. Q2 picked up exactly where Q1 left off. As we've stated before, the transition we laid out last quarter—from R&D-stage startup to operational scaleup—went from 'underway' to 'unmistakable' over the last three months. It charged us a toll along the way, however: The BB7 satellite launched on April 19 but was then lost when Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket failed during deployment. The failure was cleanly attributable to Blue Origin, not to AST; it amounted to a ~$125 million write-off (partially covered by launch insurance, and claims have been filed). AST's response on the May call was the right one, citing its 33 satellites (now 42, as of this writing) in advanced stages of production. First-quarter results in May landed with modest revenue from gateways and government milestones, guidance reaffirmed, and, roughly $3.5B of cash. More important, the FCC granted commercial authorization for SpaceMobile service in the United States, covering a network of up to 248 satellites. Block 1 satellites also set a 98.9 Mbps peak-speed record to unmodified smartphones, with Block 2 expected to nearly double it. Pro forma liquidity stands near $3.7B as of June 30, 2026, which is more than enough to fund the constellation buildout and get AST to commercial service without going back to the capital markets. The manufacturing story is where the scaleup shows in hard numbers. AST exited 2025 producing six satellites' worth of Micron phased arrays per month. Q2 ended with BlueBirds 11 through 33 in advanced stages of production and assembly, with Micron's equivalent to 40 satellites targeted for completion by mid-year (Update: complete), enough for AST to reach BlueBird 46. Most importantly, CEO Abel Avellan confirmed on the call that single-satellite launches ended with BB7; future missions will stack satellites in groups of three, four, six, or eight. On June 17, BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 went up together on a single Falcon 9 in the first multi-satellite BlueBird launch. The operational constellation now stands at twelve BlueBirds, and the structural question we flagged last quarter—whether the lighter Block 2 composite bus could hold up in a stacked configuration—has now been answered. Launch math has officially shifted from additive to multiplicative, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit in early 2027. Everything else continued to progress: On the commercial side, Orange, Telefónica, CK Hutchison, Taiwan Mobile, and Sunrise were added or advanced, with Telus and Axian Telecom joining during the quarter. The partner base is now over 60 MNOs covering over 3 billion subscribers, and ground integration is underway in seventeen countries representing a combined 2.9 billion people. On the government side, AST layered a $30M prime contract from the Space Development Agency for HALO Europa Track 2 on top of the SHIELD IDIQ award from January, another direct-to-device national security workstream bolted onto the Golden Dome trajectory. Finally, AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon have agreed in principle to pool spectrum into a direct-to-device joint venture with economics that we think run directly through AST. |
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