| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 4.6% |
LVS Advisory's Event-Driven strategy delivered 4.6% net returns in H1 2026, focusing on special situations with near-term catalysts. The flagship position is Vistance Networks, a distressed telecom infrastructure roll-up that nearly bankrupted itself with $10.5 billion in debt. Following asset sales to Amphenol ($10.5B) and the Ruckus divestiture ($1.8B), Vistance paid down all debt and distributed $10 per share in special dividends. The manager entered at $13.52 and sees $24-28 in total value including future dividends, with the remaining business trading at 4.4x free cash flow and a high likelihood of sale. The Growth portfolio made its first Japan investment in Hikari Tsushin, a Berkshire-style conglomerate with exceptional capital allocation (17% equity CAGR over 15 years). Hikari maintains strict 30% IRR investment hurdles and trades at just 2.0x earnings for its operating businesses after backing out net cash and investments. A recent 15% drawdown creates a buying opportunity. The manager believes all strategies are well positioned for strong forward performance despite Growth underperformance year-to-date.
LVS Advisory pursues event-driven special situations and undervalued growth opportunities with strong capital allocation. The Event-Driven strategy targets distressed or restructuring companies trading at steep discounts to intrinsic value with near-term catalysts, exemplified by Vistance Networks where asset sales and special dividends create a path to $24-28 in total value from a $13.52 entry. The Growth strategy seeks exceptional capital allocators trading cheaply, as demonstrated by Hikari Tsushin, a Japanese conglomerate with a 17% equity CAGR, strict 30% IRR hurdles, and operating businesses valued at just 2.0x earnings.
The manager expresses confidence that all three strategies are well positioned for strong performance going forward. The Event-Driven portfolio holds concentrated positions in special situations with near-term catalysts, particularly the likely sale of Vistance's remaining business. The Growth portfolio's Japan investment in Hikari Tsushin is viewed as attractively priced following a recent drawdown, representing a buying opportunity. The tone is constructive and opportunity-focused.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 9412.T, VISN | Capital Allocation, distressed, Event-Driven, Japan, special situations, Telecom Infrastructure, value |
VISN 9412.T |
LVS Advisory targets event-driven special situations and undervalued compounders. Vistance Networks, a distressed telecom roll-up, offers $24-28 in value from a $13.52 entry through asset sales and special dividends, with remaining business likely to be sold. Hikari Tsushin, a Japanese conglomerate with 17% equity CAGR and exceptional capital allocation, trades at 2.0x earnings for operating businesses following a 15% drawdown. |
| May 24 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, downside protection, Event-Driven, growth, risk management, semiconductors, technology | - | Event-driven strategy continues delivering superior downside protection with minimal drawdowns during market stress. Growth portfolio repositioned around AI infrastructure theme with differentiated exposure versus benchmarks. Manager bullish on AI productivity benefits and infrastructure buildout despite acknowledging political and macro risks. Strong track record of risk management with plans for high-conviction AI infrastructure investments. |
| Feb 10 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, CW, GOOGL, IBKR, META, NFLX, TLN, WBD, WISE | AI, Event-Driven, Fintech, growth, Leverage, Netflix, Power, software, Streaming | - | LVS Advisory's Event-Driven strategy gained 9.1% in 2025 and launched a levered version capitalizing on improved M&A conditions. The Growth Portfolio underperformed due to Netflix's Warner Brothers acquisition impact, but the manager maintains conviction at current 20x forward earnings. Software exposure was liquidated due to AI concerns while power infrastructure investments delivered strong returns. |
| Oct 19 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BP, CW, E, GLNG, LNG, SHEL, TLN, XOM | Argentina, energy, infrastructure, LNG, nuclear, Power Generation | - | LVS Growth gained 15.7% in Q3 2025, driven by concentrated power generation thesis. Electricity demand from AI, EVs, and global growth is outpacing supply, creating 50GW deficit over five years. Portfolio's 20% energy allocation includes Talen Energy, Curtis-Wright, and featured investment Golar LNG, which manager expects to double or triple over four years despite Argentina exposure. |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMD, AMZN, BA, CW, GOOGL, ITOS, LMT, NVDA, RTX | aerospace, Biotech, defense, Event-Driven, growth, Industrial, Liquidations, nuclear |
CW ITOS |
LVS Advisory outperformed benchmarks in Q2 2025 through concentrated bets on Curtiss-Wright's defense and nuclear monopolies plus biotech liquidation arbitrage. Manager doubled down on CW position expecting 5x nuclear earnings growth from data center demand and regulatory tailwinds. Event-driven strategy targets failed biotech companies trading at steep discounts to cash value. |
| Apr 2 2025 | 2025 Q1 | HHH, ICLR, MEDP | activism, Cro, Event Driven, real estate, risk management |
HHH ICLR |
LVS Advisory outperformed in Q1 2025 by focusing on disciplined exits over new investments. The firm sold Howard Hughes after Ackman's unfavorable takeover attempt and Icon after discovering flawed M&A synergies, reinvesting proceeds in superior CRO Medpace. This demonstrates active risk management when theses change or management cannot be trusted. |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | EVR, JEF, LAZ, MC, MEDP, NVDA, PJT, PWP | Antitrust, Event-Driven, Investment Banks, M&A, Merger Arbitrage, portfolio construction, Trump | - | Event-driven manager expects merger arbitrage renaissance in 2025 as Trump administration reverses Biden's aggressive antitrust stance. M&A activity should surge with investment banks already anticipating recovery through 60%+ returns. Growth portfolio evolved strategic concentration approach, holding 32 positions with top 7 comprising 50%+ of capital, delivering 36.7% returns and 11% S&P 500 outperformance. |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | MEDP | Biotechnology, Cro, Event-Driven, growth, healthcare | MEDP | LVS Advisory increased its Medpace position after the CRO stock fell 20% on biotech funding headwinds. The manager sees temporary industry weakness as a buying opportunity for a niche leader with 20%+ historical growth, 50%+ ROIC, and limited competition in serving small biotech clients. Long-term pharmaceutical R&D drivers and AI innovation potential remain intact. |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CEG, TLN | Bankruptcy, Data centers, energy, Event Driven, nuclear, Power Generation, Restructuring | TLN | Event-driven manager capitalizes on post-bankruptcy Talen Energy, a nuclear power generator trading at discount to peers. Nuclear power offers scarcity value as reliable carbon-free energy while electricity demand accelerates from AI and data centers. Transformational AWS contract provides premium pricing and growth visibility. Clean balance sheet and strong execution create compelling risk-adjusted opportunity. |
| May 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BAH, CACI | AI, Consulting, cybersecurity, defense, Government IT, Quality, technology, value | BAH | LVS Advisory's Growth Portfolio outperformed in Q1 2024 while Event-Driven declined on failed deals. The manager showcases Booz Allen Hamilton as a quality government technology contractor with AI leadership and deep competitive moats, chosen over cheaper alternatives. Strong organic growth and mission-critical positioning in defense technology justify premium valuation despite federal budget risks. |
| Feb 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | CLMT, NFLX | capital preservation, catalysts, Event-Driven, growth, Merger Arbitrage |
CLMT AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH |
LVS Advisory's event-driven strategy delivered consistent positive returns through volatile five-year period via merger arbitrage and catalyst-driven investing. Portfolio holds 30 diversified positions including Calumet with multiple near-term catalysts and Netflix as largest growth holding. Manager refined approach by cutting underperformers faster and letting winners run longer, expressing strong confidence in strategy robustness for 2024. |
| Oct 18 2023 | 2023 Q3 | BRK-B | AI, Caribbean, diversification, emerging markets, global, rates, technology, value | - | Fortress delivered strong Q3 returns through global diversification and value investing in quality companies. AI drove tech momentum while emerging markets led gains, particularly China. Fed rate cuts supported markets, but U.S. tech valuations pose risks. Caribbean weakness from FX constraints and oil prices offset by international strength. Portfolio remains globally diversified with attractive long-term prospects. |
| Jul 18 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMD, ARM, ASML, AVGO, BABA, BIDU, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL, PLTR, SNOW, TSM | AI, China, Cloud, growth, semiconductors, technology |
AMD SNOW BABA BIDU |
WestEnd Capital maintains concentrated technology exposure led by AI infrastructure plays while diversifying globally. The firm holds established leaders Palantir and Snowflake alongside new positions in AMD, Alibaba, and Baidu as catch-up trades. Technology remains the largest allocation reflecting market leadership concentration, with positioning across international markets, industrials, and defense supporting long-term growth driven by AI and infrastructure investment. |
| Apr 13 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ADYEN.AS, BA, GE, HWM, RHM.DE, ROK, RR.L | aerospace, Automation, defense, Europe, industrials, Onshoring, technology, Trade Policy |
AABA HWM DALN|FND|ROKU|WOSG LN 0GEG LN |
WestEnd doubled the S&P 500's Q2 return through concentrated bets on industrials and aerospace recovery. The fund owns Boeing as a turnaround play alongside picks-and-shovels names Howmet, Rockwell, and GE Aerospace. Rising defense spending, onshoring trends, and tariff de-escalation create favorable conditions for domestic manufacturing and aerospace companies positioned at the center of these macro themes. |
| Jan 4 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 17 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 5 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Special SituationsThe Event-Driven portfolio focuses on special situations including distressed assets and corporate restructurings. Vistance Networks represents a busted roll-up in telecom infrastructure that underwent asset sales to avoid bankruptcy, paying down debt and returning capital through special dividends. The manager identifies value in the remainco business trading at attractive multiples with high likelihood of further asset sales. |
Restructuring Asset Sales Distressed Dividends Telecom Infrastructure |
JapanThe Growth portfolio made its first investment in Japan with Hikari Tsushin, a Berkshire-style conglomerate. The manager highlights Japan as offering compelling opportunities despite being outside his typical US focus. Hikari's capitalistic culture, strong capital allocation track record, and cheap valuation (2.0x earnings for operating businesses) make it attractive. The stock is experiencing a 15% drawdown which the manager views as a buying opportunity. |
Japan Conglomerate Capital Allocation Value | |
Capital AllocationHikari Tsushin demonstrates exceptional capital allocation with shareholders' equity compounding at 17% annually over 15 years. The company maintains a strict 30% IRR hurdle for investments, allocates excess capital to dividends (growing 18% annually), buybacks, acquisitions, and public market investments. The public portfolio has compounded at 18% pre-tax IRR over 9 years, outperforming the Nikkei 225 Index while trading at less than 10x forward P/E versus 22x for the index. |
Capital Allocation Buybacks Dividends Value | |
Telecom InfrastructureVistance Networks operates in the telecom infrastructure industry, selling cables, wires, fiber equipment, and wireless networking systems to data centers, ISPs, and corporate campuses. The company's aggressive acquisition strategy led to unsustainable debt levels and near-bankruptcy. Asset sales of the CCS business to Amphenol for $10.5 billion and the Ruckus segment for $1.8 billion have deleveraged the company and returned capital to shareholders. |
Telecom Infrastructure Data Centers Wireless Infrastructure | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI is the dominant force in the US stock market and will continue to drive returns for major benchmarks. The manager believes AI is driving real productivity benefits to businesses and users, which should support continued adoption. Demand for AI significantly outpaces availability of capacity, supporting continued infrastructure buildout. The manager uses AI tools extensively in their investment process and sees strong ROI. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Productivity Semiconductors Data Centers |
SemiconductorsThe manager conducted a broad study of the semiconductor industry and found valuations appear fair to moderately over-valued in context of growth estimates. While forward valuation of 25x EBIT appears expensive, it doesn't scream bubble given growth bringing valuation down to 15x by 2029. Capex budgets appear disciplined and there's no explosion in capacity that would lead to price crashes. |
Chips Valuation Growth EBIT Capacity | |
Data CentersData centers are benefiting from AI infrastructure investment boom. Construction companies are benefiting from step up in construction projects directly and indirectly related to data centers. There's severe shortage of AI infrastructure including datacenters, supporting continued buildout. Political pushback could slow datacenter development. |
Infrastructure Construction AI Capacity Political Risk | |
| 2025 Q4 |
OilOil represents the cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold despite balanced fundamentals. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in industry history, disrupting 20 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, with U.S. shale production plateauing outside the Permian Basin. |
Crude Oil Brent WTI Shale OPEC |
Natural GasNatural gas ranks in the 99.5th percentile of historical undervaluation relative to equities. U.S. production growth has concentrated entirely in the Permian Basin, with other shale regions declining. Once the Permian's current gas production surge runs its course, supply growth should plateau and eventually decline, setting the stage for materially higher prices. |
Henry Hub LNG Shale Gas Permian | |
SilverSilver surged 51% in Q4 and over 140% for the year, staging a dramatic catch-up rally relative to gold. This magnitude of silver outperformance has historically marked important turning points, suggesting investors should consider reducing precious metals exposure in the short term despite the strong performance. |
Silver Gold Ratio Precious Metals | |
CopperCopper markets have moved back into surplus with exchange inventories rising to levels last seen in 2003. Despite strong Q4 performance, modeling suggests the market has entered a prolonged period of surplus, with inventories now covering approximately 17 days of global demand. |
Copper Base Metals Exchange Inventories | |
Platinum Group MetalsPGMs continued their powerful advance with platinum and palladium each surging 28% in Q4. Policy reversals in both the U.S. and Europe regarding electric vehicle mandates are unwinding the bearish narrative around internal combustion engine phase-outs, suggesting demand forecasts for PGMs will need meaningful upward revision. |
Platinum Palladium Auto Catalysts Electric Vehicles | |
UraniumSurging uranium demand is meeting a fragile supply base, creating fundamental tightness in the market. The uranium section discusses how demand growth is outpacing supply additions, though specific details are referenced for future coverage. |
Uranium Nuclear Supply Demand | |
CommoditiesThe commodity bull market has barely begun, with most commodities trading 46% below historical nominal peaks and 73% below real peaks when adjusted for inflation. Commodities are trading near the lowest levels relative to equities observed in more than a century, suggesting the current cycle may only be one-third complete. |
Commodity Cycle Goldman Sachs Index Inflation Adjusted | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Energy TransitionElectricity demand is accelerating due to AI computing surge, electric vehicle adoption, and global middle class growth. Demand for power is growing faster than supply, creating a nearly 50-gigawatt deficit over the next 5 years. This trend is driving higher electricity prices and incentivizing new power plant construction. |
Electricity Power Generation Baseload AI Electric Vehicles |
LNGLNG is a critical transition energy source experiencing growing global demand over the next 50 years. It is cleaner than conventional fuels, faster to develop than nuclear, and more reliable than renewables. Shell's outlook shows LNG demand expected to rise 15% over the next 15 years. |
Natural Gas Liquified Natural Gas FLNG Energy Infrastructure Floating LNG | |
NuclearNuclear power plant capital equipment companies are benefiting from increased need for baseload power generation. Curtis-Wright is positioned to benefit from the construction of new power plants as higher electricity prices incentivize development. |
Nuclear Power Power Plants Capital Equipment Baseload Power | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Defense SpendingRising demand for defense electronics driven by increased military computerization and AI integration. Global defense spending acceleration due to high-threat environment with NATO countries pledging increased spending. Foreign military sales growth including AUKUS submarine partnership and direct relationships with companies like Rheinmetall. |
Defense Electronics Military NATO AUKUS Foreign Sales |
NuclearCommercial nuclear power experiencing renaissance with plant life extensions and greenfield development. Over 80% of North American nuclear plants applied for life extensions. Eastern Europe committed to 10-15 new AP1000 reactors. Tech companies aggressively buying nuclear capacity and committing to Small Modular Reactor projects. |
SMR AP1000 Plant Extensions Greenfield Tech Companies | |
Data CentersNuclear power increasingly attractive for data center power needs due to reliability and zero-carbon profile. Large US tech companies have been aggressively buying nuclear capacity to serve rising power demands from data centers. |
Power Demand Tech Companies Zero Carbon Reliability | |
AerospaceSecular growth in commercial aviation with global airplane fleet expected to double over next 20 years. Record backlogs at Airbus and Boeing supporting growth. Curtiss-Wright has content on virtually all Boeing and Airbus models benefiting from rising tide. |
Commercial Aviation Fleet Growth Airbus Boeing Backlogs | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Commercial Real EstateHoward Hughes Corp owns master planned communities across the United States, which are large-scale residential developments that integrate commercial spaces and recreational facilities. The company's flagship MPC is The Woodlands in Houston, Texas. |
Real Estate Development Communities Commercial Residential |
| 2024 Q4 |
Capital MarketsM&A activity expected to surge in 2025 due to Trump administration's less aggressive antitrust stance. Investment banks outperformed significantly in 2024 anticipating this recovery. The exit of several large merger arbitrage funds creates supply/demand imbalance for wider deal spreads. |
M&A Investment Banks Deal Spreads Antitrust Merger Arbitrage |
| 2024 Q3 |
CRO & CDMOMedpace operates as a contract research organization managing clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies through full-service outsourcing model. The company serves small and mid-sized biotech companies with high-value-add services including technical consulting. Despite temporary biotech funding slowdown affecting industry growth, long-term drivers remain intact with innovation in drug discovery and AI adoption potentially accelerating growth. |
Clinical Trials Biotech Pharmaceutical Outsourcing Drug Development |
BiotechnologyBiotech funding environment has been challenging since 2022 due to high valuations and increased opportunity costs from higher interest rates. This has led to clinical trial rationalizations and approximately 5% drop in ongoing trials. However, pharmaceutical companies must continue R&D investment to replenish drug portfolios facing patent expirations, and funding environment may improve with lower interest rates. |
Funding Venture Capital Clinical Trials Patent Expiration R&D | |
| 2024 Q2 |
NuclearNuclear power is the only source of carbon-free energy reliable enough to be considered base load energy. Nuclear plants are valuable and scarce assets as they are extremely costly and timely to build, with almost all US reactors built between 1967-1990. Politicians on both sides have become more pro-nuclear, leading to plant extensions, restart talks, and new tax incentives. |
Nuclear Base Load Carbon Free Scarce Assets Tax Credits |
Data CentersElectricity demand growth is accelerating as the US builds more data centers. AI applications are more compute intensive and require more electricity, with ChatGPT using 30x more electricity per query than Google search. Boston Consulting Group projects data center energy use will triple from 130 terawatt hours in 2022 to 390 terawatt hours by 2030. |
Data Centers AI Electricity Demand Compute Intensive Energy Growth | |
Energy TransitionThe US has agreed to phase out coal and other dirty power sources over time, with coal dropping from one-third of power generation to roughly 10%. This supply gap has largely been filled by natural gas and crude oil, while nuclear is increasingly viewed as an attractive alternative to fossil fuels. |
Coal Phase Out Clean Energy Supply Gap Alternative Energy | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Government ITBooz Allen Hamilton represents a compelling investment in government technology consulting, leveraging deep relationships and proprietary technology to serve mission-critical programs. The company has cornered the market on skilled labor with government security clearances in AI and cybersecurity. Government contractors benefit from incumbency bias and sustainable competitive advantages through their understanding of legacy IT systems. |
Government Contracting Security Clearances IT Services Defense Technology Federal Contracts |
AIBooz Allen is the number one provider of artificial intelligence to the US Federal Government with nearly 200 government AI contracts spanning defense, national security, and civil missions. The company has invested heavily in AI capabilities and maintains a competitive advantage through proprietary technology and deep government relationships. AI funding within the defense budget is expected to increase even in constrained spending environments. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Government AI Defense AI Federal Technology | |
CybersecurityBooz Allen is ranked by Frost & Sullivan as the most innovative company in the Global Managed Detection and Response Market. The company has cornered the market on skilled cybersecurity professionals with government clearances. Cybersecurity represents mission-critical programs within the defense budget that are unlikely to face cuts and may see increased funding. |
Cyber Defense Security Services Government Security Threat Detection Cyber Capabilities | |
DefenseThe company serves mission-critical defense programs that are unlikely to face budget cuts even in constrained spending environments. Booz Allen is levered to technology programs within defense rather than physical products being procured for current conflicts. If active wars end, funding could actually increase for the technology programs Booz Allen specializes in. |
Defense Spending Military Technology Defense Contracts National Security Defense Services | |
| 2023 Q4 |
SPACsManager incorporated SPAC arbitrage in 2019, with SPACs accounting for two-thirds of portfolio at one point in 2020 when buying below liquidation value offered compelling risk-adjusted returns. Successfully capitalized by selling at attractive prices in early 2021 as SPACs became hot, then exited the asset class entirely. |
Arbitrage Liquidation Special Purpose |
Energy TransitionCalumet invested $550 million over three years to convert a refining plant into a renewable diesel and sustainable airline fuel producer. The company is positioned to become the leading provider of sustainable airline fuel in North America, representing the only viable way for airlines to decarbonize over coming decades. |
Renewable Diesel Sustainable Aviation Fuel Decarbonization Refining | |
StreamingNetflix successfully executed on cost cutting and revenue growth through ad-supported tier and paid sharing initiatives. The company proved ability to adapt to post-covid challenges and re-accelerate revenue growth, becoming the largest position at 14% portfolio weight after strong performance from $200 to over $550 per share. |
Ad-Supported Paid Sharing Revenue Growth Cost Cutting | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIArtificial intelligence remained the dominant theme supporting global stocks this quarter, with renewed frenzy in technology shares from the AI buildout bringing excitement and higher valuations. AI fueled momentum in shares of companies linked to artificial intelligence, though valuations have not yet been a concern for investors. |
Technology Valuations Momentum Growth |
Emerging marketsEmerging markets stocks posted the strongest returns this quarter. Constructive trade talks, good valuations and the government's shift to supporting private enterprise lifted Chinese stocks, adding to returns in an already strong year. The Fund's Emerging Markets Fund led the way with returns between 4% and 15%. |
China Trade Valuations Government Policy | |
ValueThe fund favors investing in shares of high-quality, profitable companies at reasonable valuations, as valuations are the launching point for future returns and allow room for error. Years of weakness in some parts of the Caribbean have set the stage for good long-term returns among profitable companies that now trade at very attractive valuations. |
Quality Profitability Reasonable Pricing Long-term | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIWestEnd maintains concentrated exposure to AI infrastructure through both established leaders and catch-up trades. The firm holds positions in Palantir and Snowflake while adding AMD, Alibaba, and Baidu as companies positioned to gain market share in the AI arms race. |
Infrastructure Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Enterprise Software |
SemiconductorsAMD is positioned as a strategic inflection point company, competing head-to-head with NVIDIA for major infrastructure contracts through partnerships with OpenAI and Oracle. The company has transformed from a cyclical chip supplier into a strategic partner for cloud and AI firms. |
Data Centers GPUs Foundries Semi Equipment | |
CloudSnowflake represents enterprise AI adoption through its data platform capabilities. The company is converting AI technology into revenue-generating tools for enterprises with products like Snowpark ML and unstructured data capabilities for demand forecasting and customer optimization. |
Enterprise Software Data & Analytics SaaS | |
ChinaAlibaba and Baidu provide exposure to Asian AI development and digital transformation. Alibaba announced a $50 billion AI initiative while Baidu operates fully driverless taxis and develops enterprise AI solutions aligned with China's goal of AI integration by 2030. |
E-commerce Autonomous Vehicles Cloud Infrastructure | |
| 2023 Q1 |
OnshoringThe US government is increasingly focused on bringing manufacturing and production home due to geopolitical uncertainties and trade issues. This is driving major capital investment across aerospace and defense industries with strong earnings growth expected to follow. |
Manufacturing Domestic Supply Chain Reshoring Production |
Defense SpendingGlobal defense spending rose to $2.7 trillion in 2024 (+9.4%) and is expected to keep rising. The US Department of Defense's 2025 budget request totals nearly $850 billion with meaningful allocations for strengthening industrial capabilities in unmanned systems, hypersonics, and solid rocket motors. |
Military Budget Aerospace Defense Government | |
AerospaceThe rebound in global air travel (up nearly 10.6% in 2024) and structural supply shortages are fueling commercial aerospace activity. Aircraft manufacturers and suppliers are racing to meet backlogs while investing heavily in domestic production capacity. |
Aviation Commercial Aircraft Travel Manufacturing | |
Trade PolicyChina and the US agreed to de-escalate and pull tariffs back to more sensible levels (30% on Chinese exports and 10% on US exports) after weekend negotiations in Geneva. Markets have moved past the worst-case tariff scenario, accepting higher but not recession-triggering effective tariff rates. |
Tariffs China Negotiations Trade Policy | |
AutomationCompanies are investing in faster, smarter, and more reliable production systems as the economy grows. Automation technologies including sensors, software, and control systems help make domestic manufacturing more efficient and cost-effective, with AI and predictive technologies reducing aircraft downtime. |
AI Manufacturing Efficiency Technology Industrial |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | AABA | Boeing Company | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, China market, Commercial Aviation, Defense, manufacturing, Order Backlog, Quality Improvement, Reshoring, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | advanced materials, aerospace components, Commercial Aviation, Defense Contractor, Manufacturing Technology, Military Aircraft, Precision Engineering, supply chain | Login |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | DALN|FND|ROKU|WOSG LN | Rockwell Automation Inc | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | NYSE | Artificial Intelligence, Control Systems, Defense Manufacturing, Digital Twins, industrial AI, Industrial automation, Manufacturing Technology, Predictive Maintenance, Reshoring | Login |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | 0GEG LN | GE Aerospace | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace Engines, Commercial Aviation, Defense, Joint venture, Manufacturing Innovation, market leadership, MRO services, Predictive Maintenance, Supply chain resilience | Login |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | VISN | Vistance Networks | Communication Equipment | Communications Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Asset Sale, Catalyst-Driven, Communications Equipment, deleveraging, Equity, Event-driven, Special dividend, Special Situation, Sum-of-the-Parts, telecom infrastructure, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | 9412.T | Hikari Tsushin | Broadcasting | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | Japan Exchange Group (Tokyo Stock Exchange) | capital allocation, conglomerate, Diversified, Equity, Finance, founder-led, holding company, insider ownership, Insurance, Japan, recurring revenue, Sum-of-the-Parts, Telecom, utilities, Value | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | CW | Curtiss-Wright Corporation | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, Commercial Aviation, Defense, defense electronics, Equity, growth, industrial conglomerate, Naval Propulsion, Nuclear Power, small modular reactors, SMR, US | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | ITOS | iTeos Therapeutics Inc | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | biotechnology, Cash Arbitrage, clinical trial, Equity, Event-driven, Liquidation, strategic alternatives, US | Login |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | HHH | Howard Hughes Corp | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bear | NYSE | activist investor, divestiture, Governance Risk, management control, Master-Planned Communities, net asset value, Real Estate, Value | Login |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | ICLR | Icon Plc | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bear | NASDAQ | business model, contract research organization, Cro, debt burden, industry consolidation, Large Pharma, M&A strategy, Operational Disruption | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Cloud computing, data centers, GPUs, market share gains, semiconductors, Server CPUs, Strategic Partnerships, Technology Transformation | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Information Technology | Software | Bull | NYSE | AI monetization, Cloud Data Platform, Data Analytics, Data Processing, Enterprise AI, Enterprise software, machine learning, Multi Cloud, SaaS | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | AI investment, Asian Infrastructure, Chinese Technology, Cloud computing, data centers, Digital transformation, e-commerce, regional expansion, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | BIDU | Baidu, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | autonomous vehicles, Chinese AI, cloud services, Domestic AI Solutions, Enterprise software, Language Models, Mobility Technology, robotaxis, Southeast Asia Expansion | Login |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | MEDP | Medpace Holdings Inc | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, Clinical trials, contract research organization, Cro, Full-Service Outsourcing, niche market, organic growth, Pharmaceutical R&D, recurring revenue, vertical integration | Login |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | TLN | Talen Energy | Utilities | Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, AWS Partnership, Bankruptcy Restructuring, Baseload Power, capital allocation, Carbon-free Energy, data centers, EBITDA growth, Electric Vehicles, energy transition, Equity, Nuclear Power, Power Purchase Agreement | Login |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton | Commercial & Professional Services | Research & Consulting Services | Bull | NYSE | Artificial Intelligence, Cyber security, Defense, Equity, government contracting, growth, IT services, Moat, Technology Consulting, US | Login |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | CLMT | Calumet | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NASDAQ | C-Corp, Catalyst, DOE Financing, Event-driven, MLP Conversion, Moderate Risk High Reward, refining, renewable energy, SAF, specialty chemicals, Sustainable aviation fuel, value unlock | Login |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | LVS Advisory - Event Driven | AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH | Netflix | Communication Services | Entertainment | Bull | NASDAQ | Ad-supported tier, cost-cutting, entertainment, growth, high conviction, Largest Position, Let Winners Run, Paid Sharing, Revenue Growth, Streaming | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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| VISN | Vistance Networks (Nasdaq: VISN) is a busted roll-up in the telecom infrastructure industry. Formerly known as CommScope, the company sold cables, wires, fiber equipment, and wireless networking systems to data centers, internet service providers, and corporate campuses. For years, the company employed an aggressive acquisition strategy to roll up the legacy cable and copper wire industry in an effort to become the leading end-to-end provider of wired and wireless communications. Vistance took on an enormous amount of debt to complete the $3 billion acquisition of BNS from TE Connectivity in 2015 and later the $7 billion acquisition of Arris in 2019. At its peak, the company had accumulated a total of $10.5 billion of debt with a net leverage ratio of 7.1x. The debt load became unsustainable, and the stock collapsed from over $40 per share in 2018 to less than $1 per share by 2024. Vistance nearly bankrupted itself, and investors left it for dead. The board ran a sale process in 2025 in a last-ditch effort to save the company from bankruptcy. This resulted in a series of asset sales that paid down debt and returned capital to shareholders. I became interested in August 2025 when the company agreed to sell the Connectivity and Cable Solutions (CCS) business to Amphenol for $10.5 billion. Vistance was able to use the proceeds to pay off all the remaining debt and also pay a $10 per share special dividend. Importantly, Vistance would still own two business units that generated over $1 per share of free cash flow. We paid $13.52 per share for the stock, which meant that after getting paid the $10 per share dividend at deal close, we were only paying ~3.5x pro forma free cash flow per share. While the remainco of Vistance isn't a sexy business, we did our homework and developed a view that it should be worth somewhere between $8 to $12 per share. Fast forward to April 2026 and Vistance agreed to sell its Ruckus segment for an additional $1.8 billion. The company outlined a similar plan to return the proceeds to shareholders via a special dividend. We estimate that the company has $8.00 of cash per share on its balance sheet today post-Ruckus sale – most of this cash will be paid out in the dividend. This still leaves a remaining business segment that will generate an estimated ~$0.90 per share in free cash flow this year. The stock is currently trading for $12.13, which means we are paying a little over $4 per share for $0.90 in free cash flow, a ~4.4x multiple. We believe the remaining business could be worth $6 to $8 per share, which implies that the stock should be worth $14 to $18 per share vs. $12.13 today. Adding it all up, we paid $13.52 for $24 to $28 in value (including dividends) in less than 1 year. What makes the situation particularly compelling today is the high likelihood that the remaining business will be sold soon. |
| 9412.T | Hikari Tsushin is a Berkshire Hathaway-style conglomerate based in Tokyo. The company focuses on buying and owning capital-light, recurring revenue businesses. Hikari operates five primary business units: utilities, telecom, insurance, finance, and consumer services. These businesses generate significant cash flow that is allocated into investments in over 140 wholly owned subsidiaries and over 700 publicly traded investments. The company's operating units and most of its publicly traded holdings are focused on the domestic Japanese market. What makes Hikari Tsushin special is that it has proven to be extremely good at allocating capital and compounding value. Shareholders' equity has compounded at a 17% annualized rate over the past 15 years while the revenue of its operating business units only grew at an 8% annualized rate. These strong results over a long period piqued my interest in figuring out what has been driving this off-the-radar Japanese company. Hikari Tsushin was founded in 1988 as a distributor of office equipment such as copiers and fax machines. The company became a mobile phone distributor in the 1990s and rode the Dot-com bubble in Japan. Hikari's stock fell 99% from the peak of the Dot-com bubble, and the company was on the verge of bankruptcy. However, the founder injected ¥10 billion of his own money and began to rebuild the company. Hikari's near-death experience during the Dot-com bubble had a lasting impact that shaped the company's culture and operating model today. The company redefined itself around financial discipline and operational efficiency. First, Hikari has steadily diversified itself out of the telecom industry. The company will invest in any business so long as it operates with a capital-light, recurring-revenue business model. Second, the company adheres to a strict internal investment hurdle requiring a 30% IRR over a 5-year period. In 2026, Hikari decided to cut incremental investment in its utility business unit due to insufficient returns. Cutting investment in the utility unit has created a temporary headwind in the company's operating results, but it demonstrates Hikari's commitment to only funding projects that meet its high investment hurdle. The good news is that Hikari has other valuable ways to allocate capital. Hikari pays out around 35% of its earnings in dividends and will allocate excess capital to share buybacks, acquisitions, and public stock market investments. Hikari's stock carries a ~2.1% dividend yield today, and the quarterly dividend payment has grown at an 18% annualized rate over the past 15 years. Third, Hikari has steadily reduced headcount over the past 20 years to operate more profitably. The company employs fewer than 4,000 people today compared to 13,000 people in 2016 despite significant growth in revenue and operating income. The three strategic elements above may appear to be very common-sense good business practices in the United States, but these strategic elements are rare in Japan. Japanese companies tend to be more focused on preserving a business's legacy and providing for its employees than on prioritizing high-return projects and human capital efficiency. In May 2026, I traveled to New York City and had the opportunity to meet with several senior executives of the company. Hikari's executives admitted that the company has an unusual corporate culture that is focused more on 'capitalism' and 'shareholder value' than legacy – music to my ears! In those meetings, I also learned that Hikari Tsushin has a highly entrepreneurial and meritocratic culture. Strong performers are aggressively promoted within the organization, and every year the company will take new business ideas from its staff and agree to fund the best proposals. This internal investment initiative led to the creation of several profitable businesses, including the company's water delivery business, Southeast Asian microfinance business, and cell phone insurance business, which cumulatively account for 22% of total company revenue today. In fact, one of the executives I met proudly told me the story of how he conceived and then executed the cell phone insurance business, which now has a 90% share in the Japanese market for cell phone insurance. The management team is a big part of the story. Chairman Yasumitsu Shigeta is the founder of the company. Shigeta saved the company from bankruptcy and then architected the recovery. Shigeta has retained his shares and currently owns roughly 50% of the company. President Hideaki Wada spent his entire career at Hikari Tsushin and was appointed President in 2019. Wada has invested his paychecks in buying Hikari's stock over the years. Wada now owns roughly 0.9% of the company worth ~$90 million US dollars. Wada and Shigeta are responsible for allocating capital and deserve much of the credit for Hikari's strong shareholder returns. Capital that is not reinvested back into the owned subsidiaries or returned to shareholders is used to acquire businesses and invest in the stock market. Drawing inspiration from Warren Buffett and Constellation Software, Hikari Tsushin has a strong value-oriented investment philosophy. The company focuses on buying dirt-cheap Japanese small-cap stocks that trade at low single-digit P/E multiples or even below the net value of their cash holdings. Hikari will often influence the companies in its public portfolio to close the value gap by distributing excess cash or running a sale process. Hikari's publicly traded portfolio has compounded at a pre-tax IRR of approximately 18% over the past 9 years. This compares to 14.0% for the Nikkei 225 Index. However, the Nikkei 225 Index carries a forward P/E of 22x. Based on our review of Hikari's holdings, Hikari's public portfolio carries a valuation multiple of less than 10x forward P/E. Given the complexity of the conglomerate business model, Hikari Tsushin is not easy to value, but a common-sense approach quickly shows that the stock appears to be attractively priced today. If you were to take Hikari's ¥1.6 trillion market capitalization and subtract the company's net cash and investment holdings of ¥1.3 trillion, it would imply a value of ¥0.3 trillion for the operating businesses. At ¥0.3 trillion, an investor is paying just 2.0x earnings for the operating businesses. This is remarkably cheap even for a Japanese conglomerate, but it is especially cheap given Hikari's strong track record, capitalistic culture, and alignment of interests between shareholders and senior management. Hikari Tsushin's stock is currently experiencing a modest ~15% drawdown from its recent highs due to recent disappointments in the earnings of its operating units. I believe the current drawdown represents a good buying opportunity. |
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