| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | - | 9.1% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% |
LVS Advisory reported mixed 2025 results with the Event-Driven Portfolio gaining 9.1% while the Growth Portfolio gained 6.2%, underperforming the S&P 500's 17.9% return. The manager launched a levered version of the Event-Driven strategy in October 2025, capitalizing on improved M&A conditions driven by surging volumes, declining rates, and laxer regulation. The Growth Portfolio struggled in Q4 with an 8.2% decline, primarily due to Netflix's 21.8% drop following its $83 billion Warner Brothers Discovery acquisition announcement. Despite this setback, the manager maintains conviction in Netflix as the global streaming leader, viewing current 20x forward earnings as attractive given expected 20%+ earnings growth. Other portfolio impacts included software liquidation due to AI competitive concerns, while power infrastructure investments like Talen Energy and Curtiss-Wright performed well. The manager expresses caution about S&P 500 concentration risk and elevated valuations, preferring to diversify away from broad market exposure while maintaining selective positions in tech platforms and fintech companies.
LVS Advisory operates two complementary strategies: an Event-Driven portfolio focused on low-volatility, uncorrelated returns through merger arbitrage, and a Growth portfolio targeting capital appreciation through selective equity investments, with recent expansion into a levered version of the Event-Driven strategy to capitalize on improved M&A conditions.
The manager is energized for 2026 and excited to expand with the Levered Event-Driven strategy. Several promising new investments are in the pipeline for future discussion.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, CW, GOOGL, IBKR, META, NFLX, TLN, WBD, WISE | AI, Event-Driven, Fintech, growth, Leverage, Netflix, Power, software, Streaming | - | Netflix remains the largest holding at 18% weight, viewed as the global category killer in scripted entertainment rapidly eroding linear TV market share. Despite the Warner Brothers Discovery acquisition causing a 21.8% Q4 decline, the manager sees Netflix continuing to take share through reinvestment in live entertainment, sports content, video games, and advertising capabilities. Artificial intelligence is viewed as creating competition and reducing switching costs in software, leading to liquidation of software exposure. However, AI should benefit tech platforms with physical economies of scale and network effects by allowing them to better serve customers and potentially reduce costs. The power basket performed well with investments in companies benefiting from the energy transition. Talen Energy doubled and Curtiss-Wright appreciated 64%, reflecting the manager's positive view on longer-term power infrastructure trends despite short-term volatility. The fintech basket includes Interactive Brokers and Wise, with stocks showing volatility due to interest rate sensitivity and consumer spending exposure. Stablecoin risk emerged as a new theme in 2025, particularly for cross-border payments, though current costs remain higher than traditional payment rails. |
| Oct 19 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | commodities, energy, infrastructure, LNG, M&A | - | Event-Driven strategies leveraged rising LNG demand and infrastructure expansion, with Golar LNG representing a major catalyst play. The portfolio capitalizes on mispriced corporate transitions and geopolitical risks, emphasizing long-term value from fixed tolling contracts and project optionality. The fund maintains exposure to energy infrastructure M&A and cash flow-rich assets. |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ITOS | Biotech, Event-Driven, Liquidations, net cash, special situations | - | Biotech liquidations offer event-driven opportunities where companies trade below net cash value following failed clinical trials. The strategy focuses on identifying situations where management opts to return capital rather than pursue value-destructive reinvestment. This theme exploits mispricing driven by pessimism and inefficient capital allocation in early-stage biotech markets. |
| Apr 2 2025 | 2025 Q1 | HHH | - | - | |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | TLN | - | - | |
| May 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | CLMT | - | - | |
| Oct 18 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 18 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 13 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 4 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 17 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 5 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
FinTechThe fund continues its growth approach to investing in financial and financial-related companies, including payment businesses, financial exchanges, and data providers that enable financial transactions. The common denominator across all holdings is the use of technology and data to better serve customers and grow at above-average rates. |
Payments Digital Banking Financial Technology Data Analytics Financial Software | |
StreamingNetflix represents the fund's exposure to global streaming entertainment, despite near-term headwinds from subscriber growth concerns and content spending. The fund continues to view Netflix as the dominant global streaming platform with durable competitive advantages through its content library, technology infrastructure, and growing advertising business. |
Content Global Advertising Platform Entertainment | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CommoditiesBull market may be in early stages with most commodities 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. Commodity-to-equity ratio near historic lows suggests capital starvation. Current cycle appears only one-third complete compared to historical precedent. |
Cycles Capital Valuation Equities |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure | |
LNGNatural gas exports represent a key growth driver for the midstream sector. However, concerns about LNG supply/demand fundamentals weighed on some stocks, and potential Russian gas returning to Europe could negatively impact US natural gas exports. |
Exports Natural Gas Global Supply Demand | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Liquidation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| CW | We initiated Curtiss-Wright, consistent with our high-quality growth orientation. We believe Curtiss-Wright is entering a period in which multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers saw weakness amid interest-rate uncertainty. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| NFLX | NFLX was the portfolio's largest detractor in 4Q25 following investor concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending. While revenue grew approximately 10% year-over-year, management guided to slower net subscriber additions in North America and Europe after recent price increases, and margins were pressured by elevated investment in live sports and international content. |
| TLN | Our power basket performed well with Talen Energy doubling. |
| WBD | Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) was the top contributor during the quarter. The U.S.-headquartered media company's stock price surged as multiple parties submitted offers to acquire all or part of the business. Following several rounds of bidding, WBD announced an agreement to sell its Streaming and Studios business to Netflix, while spinning the Global Networks business to shareholders. Paramount Skydance subsequently made a direct $30 per share offer to shareholders for the entire company. We are pleased with the steps the WBD board has taken thus far to unlock shareholder value. We will continue to closely monitor developments as this bidding war unfolds. |
| WISE | Wise is more vulnerable given that cross-border pay is considered a strong use case for crypto and stablecoins. To date, stablecoins do not have much traction in cross-border transfer due to much higher costs than traditional payment rails. Wise has continued to post strong financial performance, which gives us some solace that the risk is still theoretical. I believe Wise still has an opportunity to adopt stablecoin technology and retain its reputation as a disruptor. Wise has an outstanding track record of execution, and I trust management to make the right decisions. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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