| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 20.8% | 0% | 174.2% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.7% | 22.1% | 42.6% | -53.0% | -23.7% | 52.1% |
Hirschmann Capital delivered exceptional returns in H2 2025, with Class A and Class B returning 63.2% and 67.3% respectively versus 11.9% for the S&P 500, demonstrating the effectiveness of their ultra-bearish strategy focused on gold mining equities. The manager argues that a US sovereign debt crisis is inevitable, noting that all 55 net debtor countries with debt exceeding 120% of GDP have historically defaulted, and the US has already crossed this critical threshold. Gold allocations have reached their highest levels since 1979-81, reflecting rational concern about sovereign default risk via inflation. The Fund's gold mining equities remain attractively valued with minimal debt and low production costs, positioned to benefit from both rising gold prices and operational progress as projects advance from development to production. While other bearish strategies like equity shorts offer potential upside, they carry unlimited downside risk and adverse characteristics. The manager expects GMEs to more than triple over the next few years as they converge with intrinsic values, providing superior risk-adjusted returns in an environment of elevated sovereign credit stress.
The Fund maintains an ultra-bearish strategy focused on gold mining equities as the optimal hedge against an inevitable US sovereign debt crisis, positioning for significant outperformance as gold prices rise and mining projects advance to production.
The manager expects gold mining equities to more than triple over the next few years as they converge with intrinsic values, supported by minimal debt and low production costs. A sovereign debt crisis is viewed as extremely likely, which should benefit gold allocations and the Fund's positioning.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Bearish, Crisis, Default, gold, inflation, Mining, sovereign debt, Valuations | - | Hirschmann Capital's ultra-bearish gold mining strategy delivered 63% returns in H2 2025 as gold allocations hit 40-year highs amid sovereign debt concerns. With US debt exceeding the critical 120% GDP threshold that has historically preceded all defaults, the Fund's undervalued gold miners are positioned to triple as projects advance and gold prices rise during the inevitable debt crisis. |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Bearish Strategy, Gold Miners, small cap, Superbubble, value | NEM | Hirschmann Partnership posted 130-147% YTD gains through October 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 since inception despite an ultra-bearish strategy. The manager remains extremely bullish on undervalued gold mining equities, expecting gold prices to skyrocket when the US superbubble bursts, driving significant portfolio upside. |
| Jul 29 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Crisis, Debt, gold, inflation, Mining, Recession, valuation | - | Hirschmann Partnership returned 68.0% in H1 2025 through concentrated gold mining equity exposure, positioning for imminent US superbubble collapse. Multiple recession indicators, extreme valuations, and dangerous debt levels support the ultra-bearish thesis. Gold miners remain undervalued despite rallies, offering protection against expected inflation crisis with potential 150%+ upside. |
| Apr 4 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Gold Miners, Performance, small caps, value | - | Hirschmann Partnership delivered 28.7% in Q1 2025 versus S&P 500's -13.4% decline, continuing strong momentum from 2024's 61.8% gain. The fund targets undervalued small- and micro-cap equities globally through fundamental analysis, generating 11.9% annualized returns since 2014 inception despite significant volatility across market cycles. |
| Jan 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | Bubbles, Crisis, Developers, gold, Mining, TSX, value | - | Hirschmann Partnership targets undervalued gold mine developers ahead of an expected US superbubble burst. With equities at record valuations and debt crisis signals mounting, the fund is positioned in Toronto Stock Exchange developers trading at massive discounts to intrinsic value. These holdings should dramatically outperform as gold soars during the coming financial crisis. |
| Jul 26 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Bubbles, Debt crisis, Gold Miners, inflation, Recession, small cap | - | Hirschmann Capital delivered 35.7% returns in H1 2024 through concentrated gold mining positions ahead of an expected US recession and debt crisis. With unemployment indicators flashing recession warnings and equity bubbles at record valuations, the fund is positioned for currency debasement through undervalued gold developers trading at massive discounts to producers. |
| Jun 7 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Gold Miners, small caps, value | - | Hirschmann Partnership delivered 14.3% in Q1 2024, continuing its volatile small-cap value strategy. The fund has generated 6.3% annualized returns since 2014 inception, underperforming the S&P 500 but showing resilience through market cycles. Performance-based fees align manager interests with long-term value creation in discounted small and micro-cap equities. |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | Concentration, Debt crisis, Gold Miners, inflation, Recession, value | - | Hirschmann Capital delivered 81.2% returns in H2 2023 through concentrated gold mining positions. The manager expects an imminent US recession to trigger a government debt crisis with debt-to-GDP reaching 146%, forcing inflationary money printing. Gold miners remain undervalued despite strong fundamentals, positioning the fund for significant appreciation as investors flee to precious metals during the crisis. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe fund extensively analyzes whether current AI markets represent a bubble, comparing it to the late 1990s internet bubble. They discuss AI's impact on market capitalization and investment flows, noting both the transformative potential and speculative concerns around valuations and infrastructure investments. |
Artificial Intelligence Bubble Valuations Infrastructure Technology |
Long/ShortThe fund operates as a global long/short strategy targeting risk-adjusted returns. The short book remained a headwind this quarter, particularly in Biotech and Materials sectors, though they saw encouraging gains across other sectors on the short side. |
Hedge Fund Short Selling Risk Management Diversification | |
BiotechnologyBiotech was specifically mentioned as an area where their short book faced headwinds during the quarter. The fund also discusses biotech companies in the context of pattern recognition for short opportunities, particularly those going public via reverse mergers. |
Biotech Short Positions Reverse Mergers Stock Promotion | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Gold MinersThe manager remains extremely bullish on gold mining equities, viewing them as very undervalued. He expects gold prices to skyrocket when the US superbubble inevitably bursts, which would benefit the portfolio's gold mining positions. |
Gold Mining Undervalued Superbubble Precious Metals |
| 2025 Q2 |
GoldGold remains extremely undervalued despite recent rallies, with the fund maintaining concentrated exposure to gold mining equities. The manager expects dramatic price increases during the looming inflation crisis as investors seek alternatives to bonds, equities, and bank accounts. Gold may increase more than 150% if conditions return to their peak during the 1965-82 US Great Inflation period. |
Gold Miners Inflation Crisis Valuation Safe Haven |
InflationThe manager anticipates a looming inflation crisis driven by reckless US fiscal and trade policies. This crisis should trigger increased demand for gold as a safe alternative to traditional assets. The fund is positioned defensively for this expected inflationary environment through gold mining equity exposure. |
Crisis Fiscal Policy Trade Policy Safe Haven Gold | |
Credit StressUS government debt is at levels that have nearly always led to default, with surging bond yields potentially triggering a debt crisis. The 30-year bond yield reached its highest level since 2006, and the manager warns this is precisely how a debt crisis might begin during an expected recession. |
Government Debt Default Bond Yields Debt Crisis Recession | |
| 2024 Q4 |
GoldGold mining equities represent the core investment focus, with the fund concentrated in gold mine developers trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. The manager expects gold prices to soar as US bubbles burst, creating exceptional opportunities in undervalued Toronto Stock Exchange developers. |
Gold Miners Gold Mining Developers TSX |
BubblesThe manager identifies extreme investor euphoria with US equities at highest-ever valuations on nearly all reliable metrics. Multiple global real estate markets are characterized as bubbles, with seven of ten largest markets very overvalued, setting up for potential crashes as bond yields rise. |
Valuations Real Estate Euphoria Crisis | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Gold MinersFund is concentrated in gold mining equities (GMEs) which should appreciate dramatically in a crisis. Gold mine developers are underperforming producers by 54% since 2021, creating opportunities as this should reverse when gold prices improve and producers acquire developers. |
Gold Mining Developers Producers Crisis |
RecessionUS recession remains likely due to weakening labor market with unemployment rate increases that have historically predicted all 11 prior recessions. Initial unemployment claims are rising faster than at the start of 4 of the last 8 recessions. |
Unemployment Labor Market Economic Cycle Recession Indicators | |
InflationCore inflation remaining above 2% could limit Fed's ability to prolong bubbles with rate cuts. A USG debt crisis should cause currency debasement, driving up gold prices and GMEs. |
Core Inflation Fed Policy Currency Debt Crisis | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Gold MinersThe fund is 99.4% invested in gold mining equities with concentrated positions. Several holdings appreciated significantly in H2 2023, with the manager evaluating position sizing due to increased valuations. The portfolio includes companies with strong fundamentals, no debt, and substantial cash positions trading at low earnings multiples. |
Gold Mining Precious Metals Commodities Value |
RecessionThe manager expects a US recession based on multiple indicators that predicted the last six recessions with no false positives, including yield curve inversion, Leading Economic Index decline, and unemployment metrics. The recession is attributed to delayed impact of 525bps Fed rate increases that can no longer be offset by pandemic stimulus. |
Economic Cycle Indicators Fed Policy Unemployment | |
InflationA US government debt crisis is expected to result in skyrocketing inflation as the government prints money to pay its debt, similar to Argentina and Turkey. The manager believes fiscal austerity will be ineffective because it lowers growth and worsens budget deficits, leading to inflationary default rather than outright payment failure. |
Monetary Policy Debt Crisis Currency Debasement Government |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brian Hirschmann | NEM | NEW Gold Mining Equities | Materials | Precious Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Commodities, Gold, Hedge, inflation, Macro, Mining, valuation | Login |
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