Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -3.2% | -12.4% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| -12.4% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -3.2% | -12.4% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| -12.4% |
Turtle Creek experienced a disappointing 2025 with a 12.4% decline, marking the ninth drawdown exceeding 20% in the fund's history. The decline was not driven by fundamental disappointments but rather by the portfolio's concentrated nature and 97% active share relative to indices. The manager emphasizes that their investment process remains unchanged, focusing on deep company understanding and long-term cash flow valuation. However, they have refined portfolio construction overlays in response to evolving market structure, where fundamental investors now represent less than 10% of trading volume versus 80% at inception. The portfolio currently trades at 10x earnings with projected 20% annual growth over five years, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500 at 22x earnings near historical highs. Historical analysis shows strong recoveries following previous drawdowns, with the manager expressing confidence in future performance given current attractive valuations and portfolio positioning across quality companies.
Turtle Creek maintains a concentrated mid-cap portfolio trading at attractive valuations (10x earnings with 20% projected growth) while broad markets trade at historically elevated levels, positioning for strong recovery following the 2025 drawdown.
The manager expresses strong optimism about the next few years based on attractive portfolio valuations and quality of companies. They believe the current drawdown will be followed by strong recovery similar to previous instances, citing the portfolio's attractive positioning compared to previous large drawdowns.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Canada, concentrated, drawdowns, mid cap, positioning, value | - | The portfolio trades at 10x earnings with projected 20% annual earnings growth over five years, compared to S&P 500 at 22x earnings at the top of its historical range. The manager emphasizes attractive valuations relative to historical ranges and growth expectations. |
| Oct 31 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AHT, BFH, KNSL, SCI, WSC | Active Share, earnings growth, Mid Cap Equities, North America, Portfolio Upgrade |
WSC KNSL CTAS WSC KNSL CTAS |
Quality: The portfolio has been upgraded toward market leaders, best-run operators, and durable niche businesses, raising average business quality. Valuation: Despite higher growth prospects, holdings trade near ~10x earnings with returns driven by earnings, not multiple expansion. Midcaps: Management highlights better prospective returns outside the S&P 500s elevated multiples, favoring mid-cap exposures. |
| Sep 10 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | algorithms, Inefficiency, Passive investing, value, volatility | - | The letter argues that equity markets have become structurally less efficient due to passive investing, algorithmic trading, social media, and short-term speculation. Management believes prices increasingly reflect sentiment and flows rather than intrinsic value, creating frequent and severe dislocations. This environment favors disciplined fundamental investors who can tolerate volatility and wait for value realization through cash returns, activism, or takeovers. |
| May 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BFH, MIDD, TFII CN | - | - | |
| Mar 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ABG, AHT LN, ASO, BLDR, DOO CN, FFBB, KNSL, TIGO, UBAB, WSC | - | - | |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | GIL | - | - | |
| May 16 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 20 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled |
| 2025 Q3 |
Mid Caps |
|
| 2025 Q2 |
Inefficiency |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | WSC | WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | consolidation, construction, efficiency, FCF, M&A, Modular, Pricing power, Rental, Storage | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc. | Financials | Insurance | Bull | NYSE | E&s, efficiency, growth, Insurance, management, profitability, ROE, technology, underwriting | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | CTAS | Cintas Corporation | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | compounder, dividends, growth, leadership, Margins, recurring revenue, scale, services, Uniforms | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | WSC | WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | consolidation, construction, efficiency, FCF, M&A, Modular, Pricing power, Rental, Storage | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc. | Financials | Insurance | Bull | NYSE | E&s, efficiency, growth, Insurance, management, profitability, ROE, technology, underwriting | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | CTAS | Cintas Corporation | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | compounder, dividends, growth, leadership, Margins, recurring revenue, scale, services, Uniforms | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||