Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -3.2% | -12.4% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| -12.4% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -3.2% | -12.4% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| -12.4% |
Turtle Creek experienced a disappointing 2025 with a 12.4% decline, marking the ninth drawdown exceeding 20% in the fund's history. The decline was not driven by fundamental disappointments but rather by the portfolio's concentrated nature and 97% active share relative to indices. The manager emphasizes that their investment process remains unchanged, focusing on deep company understanding and long-term cash flow valuation. However, they have refined portfolio construction overlays in response to evolving market structure, where fundamental investors now represent less than 10% of trading volume versus 80% at inception. The portfolio currently trades at 10x earnings with projected 20% annual growth over five years, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500 at 22x earnings near historical highs. Historical analysis shows strong recoveries following previous drawdowns, with the manager expressing confidence in future performance given current attractive valuations and portfolio positioning across quality companies.
Turtle Creek maintains a concentrated mid-cap portfolio trading at attractive valuations (10x earnings with 20% projected growth) while broad markets trade at historically elevated levels, positioning for strong recovery following the 2025 drawdown.
The manager expresses strong optimism about the next few years based on attractive portfolio valuations and quality of companies. They believe the current drawdown will be followed by strong recovery similar to previous instances, citing the portfolio's attractive positioning compared to previous large drawdowns.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Canada, concentrated, drawdowns, mid cap, positioning, value | - | Turtle Creek's concentrated mid-cap strategy declined 12.4% in 2025 but trades at compelling 10x earnings with 20% projected growth versus S&P 500 at historically elevated 22x multiples. The manager maintains conviction in their unchanged investment process and expects strong recovery based on attractive valuations and historical drawdown patterns. |
| Oct 31 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AHT.L, ATD.TO, BFH, DOL.TO, DOO.TO, GIL.TO, KNSL, PFB.TO, SCI, SYF, TFII.TO, URI, WSC | Canada, Concentration, growth, mid cap, Quality, value |
WSC KNSL CTAS WSC KNSL CTAS |
Mid-cap focused portfolio trades at attractive 10.4x earnings with 20%+ forecast growth while S&P 500 trades at expensive 22x multiples. Upgraded portfolio quality through expanded team coverage enables better company selection. Recent underperformance from upgrading activities positions portfolio for superior returns as fundamentals strengthen while valuations remain reasonable versus broad market. |
| Sep 10 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Buybacks, Canada, ETFs, Fundamental, market inefficiency, mid cap, value | - | Turtle Creek sees unprecedented market inefficiency driven by passive investing, social media, and AI trading as a major opportunity. While share prices disconnect from fundamentals, their portfolio companies deliver strong earnings and return 5% cash to shareholders. This structural shift favors patient value investors who can capitalize on greater price dislocations. |
| May 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BFH, BWA, FND, MGA.TO, MIDD, TFII.TO, TOY.TO | Buybacks, Canada, Foodservice, mid cap, tariffs, Transportation, value |
BFH TFII.TO MIDD |
Turtle Creek navigated Q1 tariff volatility with portfolio declining 10.3% despite strong underlying earnings. Manager doubled TFI position after 40% drop, viewing market overreaction to transport weakness. Portfolio benefits from USMCA compliance with minimal direct tariff exposure. Strong conviction in industry-leading companies with competitive moats positioned to outperform through uncertainty. |
| Mar 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AHT.L, AMCR, ATS.TO, BERY, BF.A, DFS, DOO.TO, KNSL, MGRC, PFB.TO, URBN, URI, WSC | Buybacks, Deregulation, Financial Services, mid cap, Trade Policy, value |
BFH BERY DOO.TO AHT.L KNSL WSC |
Turtle Creek added four positions at 50%+ discounts to intrinsic value in 2024, achieving 14% Portfolio Business Value growth despite modest 2% unit price returns. Trump election viewed as net positive through deregulation and tax cuts. Limited tariff exposure with under 10% Canadian revenue. Bread Financial led performance with 25%+ ROE and regulatory tailwinds. |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | GIL.TO | Apparel, Canada, Concentration, Governance, value | GIL.TO | Turtle Creek's concentrated value portfolio trades at crisis-level 64% discount to intrinsic value despite 4% business value growth. Successfully led Gildan governance battle restoring founder CEO. Deployed 10% of assets into weakness. Portfolio at 9x earnings with 20% growth projection offers compelling opportunity as economic weakness creates acquisition opportunities for holdings. |
| May 16 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ATS.TO, PFB.TO, TFII | Attribution Analysis, Canada, mid cap, Quality, risk management, value | - | Turtle Creek demonstrates exceptional risk management with losses on only 3 of 85 positions over 15 years while generating 17.9% annual returns. The fund added three new positions in Q1 at 50%+ discounts to Business Value, maintaining their disciplined value approach focused on quality companies trading at significant discounts to intrinsic worth. |
| Feb 20 2024 | 2023 Q4 | GIL.TO | activism, Apparel, Canada, mid cap, Succession | - | Turtle Creek's 25-year track record of consistent value investing was tested when longtime holding Gildan fired founder-CEO Glenn Chamandy. Breaking from their typical quiet engagement approach, the firm went public opposing the board decision, viewing Chamandy as essential to the apparel company's four-decade growth story and 90-fold stock appreciation. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
ValuePortfolio trading at 10x earnings with projected 20%+ annual growth over next five years, significantly cheaper than market indices. Manager emphasizes attractive valuations relative to historical ranges and growth expectations. |
Valuation Earnings Growth |
DrawdownsExperienced ninth drawdown greater than 20% in fund history, with 22% decline from February to November 2025. Historical analysis shows strong recovery patterns with significant outperformance in subsequent two years following previous drawdowns. |
Volatility Recovery Performance | |
| 2025 Q3 |
ValuePortfolio trades at 10.4x earnings, below historical median range of 9x-13x, while S&P 500 trades at elevated 22x earnings in top fifth percentile of 20-year range. Manager emphasizes valuation discipline and relative attractiveness versus broad market multiples. |
Valuation Multiples Earnings Discount Attractiveness |
QualityExpanded investment team from 5 to 12 professionals enables following 100+ companies versus 35 previously, resulting in higher quality portfolio construction. Focus on highly intelligent organizations with superior management teams and business models that can earn superior returns. |
Management Business Intelligence Selection Improvement | |
GrowthPortfolio companies forecast to grow earnings at greater than 20% annually over next five years, meaningfully higher than historical growth rates. This higher growth combined with lower valuations creates attractive risk-adjusted return profile. |
Earnings Forecast Expansion Acceleration Compounding | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Market InefficiencyMarkets have become significantly less efficient over the past 25 years, with share prices increasingly disconnected from company fundamentals. This trend has accelerated in recent years, creating opportunities for fundamental value investors who can maintain patience and discipline. |
Inefficiency Fundamentals Value Disconnect Opportunity |
AIThe rapid rise of AI in trading is amplifying market inefficiency through machine money that relies on backward-looking data and historical correlations. While AI is a powerful innovation used as a research assistant, the assessment of management teams and long-term prospects remains uniquely human. |
Machine Money Trading Innovation Research | |
ETFsThe proliferation of ETFs has contributed to decreased market efficiency, with more ETFs now existing than publicly traded companies in North America. This allows thematic investing without fundamental analysis, leading to capital flows dictated by sentiment rather than value. |
Passive Thematic Sentiment Capital Flows | |
ValueThe portfolio trades at a strikingly attractive earnings multiple while companies return approximately 5% cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Fundamental value investing benefits from increased market inefficiency as prices become more disconnected from intrinsic value. |
Earnings Multiple Cash Return Fundamental Intrinsic | |
BuybacksPortfolio companies are returning excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, totaling approximately 5% relative to market capitalization. This capital return mechanism helps surface value even in inefficient markets. |
Share Repurchases Capital Return Shareholders | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration's chaotic tariff policy created significant market volatility and uncertainty. Direct portfolio impact is modest with only 4 of 30 companies notably affected due to USMCA compliance. Secondary economic impact from consumer sentiment decline and approval rating drops has caused policy backtracking. |
Tariffs USMCA China Manufacturing Sourcing |
LogisticsTFI International experienced weak results in U.S. LTL operations despite the UPS acquisition being highly accretive. North American transport industry facing one of weakest markets in 40 years since deregulation. Management taking longer than expected to integrate culture and operating model. |
Transportation LTL Trucking Acquisitions Integration | |
BuybacksBread Financial completed entire $150 million authorization, repurchasing 6.5% of shares at $47 below tangible book value of $49. Middleby tripled share buyback authorization with intention to repurchase 6-8% annually, shifting from programmatic to opportunistic approach. |
Repurchases Capital Opportunistic Value Authorization | |
FoodserviceMiddleby Corporation is global leader in commercial foodservice equipment serving McDonald's, Starbucks, and Chipotle. Company announced spin-off of food processing division and strategic review process. U.S.-centric manufacturing provides competitive advantage under tariff environment. |
Equipment Commercial Restaurants Manufacturing Spinoff | |
| 2024 Q4 |
DeregulationTrump administration expected to be more business friendly with push for deregulation and lower corporate taxes. CFPB under Trump widely expected to be more business friendly and less focused on increasing regulatory burden. Proposed cap on credit card late fees may be dropped under new administration. |
Financial Services CFPB Credit Cards Regulation |
Trade PolicyTrump announced then paused 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. Manager believes blanket tariff unlikely due to economic integration within North America. Portfolio has limited exposure with less than 10% revenue from Canada and minimal cross-border shipping. |
Tariffs NAFTA Cross Border Canada Mexico | |
ValueFour new companies added at greater than 50% discount to Business Value, representing highest valuation threshold in firm history. Growing investment team allows identification of more deeply discounted opportunities. Average discount to intrinsic value for new positions now greater than 60%. |
Discount Intrinsic Value Business Value Margin of Safety | |
BuybacksWillScot announced meaningful share repurchase program after canceling acquisition. Berry Global board criticized for backing away from opportunistic share repurchases in favor of merger strategy. Share repurchases viewed as value-creating capital allocation. |
Share Repurchases Capital Allocation Value Creation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ValuePortfolio trading at 64% discount to intrinsic value, comparable only to crisis periods like COVID crash, Greek Crisis, and Great Financial Crisis. Trading at 9 times next year's earnings with 20% projected annual growth over five years. Attractive valuation driven by years of research expanding coverage to over 100 companies. |
Discount Intrinsic Valuation Earnings Multiple |
ApparelExtensive focus on Gildan Activewear corporate governance battle resulting in founder CEO Glenn Chamandy's return. Company represents one of Canada's great success stories with 90-fold share price increase over 25 years. Board termination of founder led to unprecedented shareholder response and costly proxy fight exceeding $65 million. |
Gildan Manufacturing Textiles Governance Founder | |
| 2024 Q1 |
ValueThe fund focuses on purchasing companies at significant discounts to Business Value, with new additions requiring at least 40% discounts. Three new positions were added at greater than 50% discounts to Business Value during the quarter. |
Discount Business Value Undervalued Valuation Intrinsic Value |
QualityThe investment approach emphasizes companies that meet strict qualitative criteria, with 18 former holdings still being followed because they continue to meet these standards. The focus is on companies with strong fundamentals and business quality. |
Qualitative Criteria Business Quality Standards Fundamentals | |
| 2023 Q4 |
ApparelTurtle Creek has been a long-term shareholder in Gildan Activewear for over a decade, viewing it as one of Canada's great success stories. The company has grown from a small family business into a global apparel company with over US$3 billion in sales and a 90-fold share price increase over 25 years under founder Glenn Chamandy's leadership. |
Gildan Manufacturing Textiles Global Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | CTAS | Cintas Corporation | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | compounder, dividends, growth, leadership, Margins, recurring revenue, scale, services, Uniforms | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | WSC | WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | consolidation, construction, efficiency, FCF, M&A, Modular, Pricing power, Rental, Storage | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc. | Financials | Insurance | Bull | NYSE | E&s, efficiency, growth, Insurance, management, profitability, ROE, technology, underwriting | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | CTAS | Cintas Corporation | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | compounder, dividends, growth, leadership, Margins, recurring revenue, scale, services, Uniforms | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | WSC | WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | consolidation, construction, efficiency, FCF, M&A, Modular, Pricing power, Rental, Storage | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Cameron McKendry | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc. | Financials | Insurance | Bull | NYSE | E&s, efficiency, growth, Insurance, management, profitability, ROE, technology, underwriting | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | BERY | Berry Global Group Inc | Materials | Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | Bear | NYSE | Bolt-on Acquisitions, capital allocation, consolidation, merger, Multiple arbitrage, Packaging, Plastics, platform company | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | GIL.TO | Gildan Activewear Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Activewear, activist, Apparel, Canada, Founder CEO, Global, Governance, manufacturing, Textiles, turnaround, vertically integrated | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | TFII.TO | TFI International Inc. | Industrials | Trucking | Bull | TSX | Acquisitions, Canada, Cyclical, Logistics, Ltl, market overreaction, Transportation, Trucking, value creation | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | DOO.TO | BRP Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bull | TSX | ATV, Consumer Discretionary, Cyclical, innovation, market share, Powersports, Recreational Vehicles, Sea-Doo | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | BFH | Bread Financial Holdings Inc | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | consumer finance, credit cards, Private Label Cards, Regulatory Relief, ROE, Share Buybacks, Sub-prime Lending | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | AHT.L | Ashtead Group plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | LSE | Construction Equipment, Equipment Rental, index inclusion, North America, Redomiciliation, S&P 500 inclusion, Sunbelt Rentals | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group Inc | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NASDAQ | excess and surplus lines, growth, High Multiple, Property & Casualty, specialty insurance, Unregulated Insurance | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | MIDD | The Middleby Corporation | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | NASDAQ | Acquisitions, activist investor, Commercial Foodservice, Food Processing, Industrial Equipment, Share Buybacks, spin-off, Tariff Beneficiary, US Manufacturing | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | BFH | Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | BNPL, capital allocation, consumer finance, credit cards, earnings beat, Loyalty Programs, Share Buybacks, White-label | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Turtle Creek | WSC | WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NASDAQ | antitrust, market leader, Modular Offices, Portable Storage, Share Buybacks, Temporary Classrooms, Turnkey Space Solutions | Login |
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