Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
Riverwater Partners' Sustainable Value Strategy underperformed the Russell 2500 Value Index in Q1 2026, driven entirely by stock selection while sector allocation contributed positively. The quarter was marked by extreme volatility, with small-caps posting one of their strongest starts in history before geopolitical tensions from Middle East conflict created significant market whipsaws. The manager initiated five new positions including Leggett & Platt, Sprouts Farmers Market, Methanex, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Jack Henry & Associates, while exiting several names including Amdocs, Ciena, and Western Alliance Bancorp. A detailed analysis of Century Aluminum highlights the manager's conviction in the aluminum supply story and U.S. reindustrialization theme. Looking forward, the manager is increasingly constructive on small-cap equities, believing 2026 will mark a rotation back toward fundamentals with quality small-cap stocks outperforming lower-quality peers and large-caps. The AI buildout continues to present opportunities across industrial, technology, and utilities sectors, while Middle East geopolitical tensions will likely drive commodity markets through the remainder of the year.
Focus on high-quality small-cap companies with strong fundamentals at reasonable valuations, positioned to benefit from a rotation away from speculative lower-quality factors toward fundamental value creation.
The manager is increasingly constructive on both small-cap equities broadly and high-quality small-cap businesses in particular. They believe 2026 will mark a rotation back toward fundamentals, with quality small-cap stocks outperforming. The AI buildout has a number of innings left, and the Middle East conflict will likely drive markets through the rest of the year.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | CENX, DKS, HAE, JKHY, LEG, PLXS, SFM | AI, Aluminum, fundamentals, Geopolitical, Quality, small caps, value |
LEG SFM MEOH DKS JKHY CENX |
Small-cap value manager underperformed in volatile Q1 2026 due to stock selection, despite positive sector allocation. Added five new positions while maintaining focus on high-quality fundamentals at reasonable valuations. Expects rotation toward quality small-caps in 2026 as markets move away from speculative factors. Positioned for AI buildout and commodity supply disruptions from Middle East conflict. |
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADEA, CIEN, CNK, DGX, EXEL, HAE, JLL, LMNR, LOPE, MDU, SNV, TGLS | AI, Banking, Quality, semiconductors, small caps, technology, value |
HAE CIEN LOPE LMNR SNV ADEA CNK MRX |
Quality-focused small-cap value strategy underperformed in challenging 2025 environment favoring speculation over fundamentals. Top performer Ciena benefited from AI infrastructure demand while detractors faced sector-specific headwinds. Manager remains disciplined, expecting 2026 rotation back to quality factors with small-caps outperforming as fundamentals reassert themselves. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | CIEN, COOP, ECG, EXEL, GFF, HAE, LMNR, LNTH, LOPE, LPX, MSA, NCMI, PNW, VECO | Construction, healthcare, infrastructure, Safety, small cap, technology, value |
ECG LMNR GFF MSA ECG GFF MSA |
Sustainable Value Strategy underperformed in Q2 2025 as markets favored speculative momentum over quality fundamentals following tariff postponement. Added positions in data center beneficiary Everus Construction and safety equipment provider MSA Safety. Despite quarterly headwinds, year-to-date performance outpaces benchmark. Manager maintains conviction in disciplined value approach targeting profitable companies at significant discounts. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AGM, AM, CG, CIEN, CNX, COOP, IDCC, LMNR, PNFP, RRC, STE | Defensive, Energy Transition, Quality, Regional Banks, small caps, Trade Policy, value |
LMNR COOP PNFP RRC AM |
Riverwater's small-cap value strategy outperformed in Q1 despite broad market declines by focusing on quality companies with strong fundamentals. The manager is positioning defensively with higher cash levels while adding domestically-oriented businesses like regional bank Pinnacle Financial and energy transition plays Range Resources and Antero Midstream to navigate anticipated trade policy headwinds. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ATKR, COOP, CPRI, CRL, CROX, DAR, EVR, EXEL, IDCC, LMNR, MOD, NCMI, TPR, VLO | consumer, energy, financials, healthcare, small caps, technology, value |
COOP DAR NCMI EXEL |
Riverwater's small-cap value strategy outperformed through disciplined stock selection, exiting data center winner Modine at peak valuations while adding resilient cash flow generators. Portfolio positioned for AI infrastructure growth and trade policy shifts, maintaining cautious optimism for Fed soft landing while minimizing China exposure and emphasizing individual security selection over broad market allocation. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMKR, ATKR, CRL, DOX, EVTC, HDSN, LMNR, LPX, MOD, NYCB, VECO | Agriculture, AI, semiconductors, small caps, sustainability, technology, value |
VECO LMNR |
Small caps face their longest underperformance stretch since 1998-2003 without major economic shocks, signaling potential multi-year bull market ahead. Strategy leverages AI growth through semiconductor equipment suppliers like Veeco Instruments while maintaining concentrated exposure to industrial and technology sectors. Federal Reserve rate policy creates near-term headwinds but fundamental opportunity set remains attractive for patient capital. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ATKR, AZZ, CROX, HDSN, ICFI, IRDM, LECO, LMNR, LPX, MOD, NYCB, PLXS, QCOM, TALO, WAL | AI, Data centers, Electrical, Energy Transition, industrials, Quality, small caps, value | ATKR | Small-cap value positioned for multi-year outperformance after 14 years of large-cap dominance. Portfolio emphasizes quality, profitable companies exposed to AI, data centers, and energy transition themes. Industrial outperformance led by Modine and Atkore. New positions in distressed bank NYCB and specialty materials. Quality factors beginning to outperform amid macro uncertainty. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AluminumThe manager provides extensive analysis of Century Aluminum, highlighting the collapse of U.S. primary aluminum production from 33% of global output to under 1%. The Oklahoma mega-project with Emirates Global Aluminium represents a decade-long growth runway that would more than double current U.S. production. LME aluminum prices have risen above $3,300/ton on tightening global supply and geopolitical disruption risks. |
Aluminum Smelters Tariffs Production Supply |
AIThe manager believes the artificial intelligence buildout has a number of innings left. They are exposed predominantly through industrial holdings, but also have exposure in technology and utilities. AI is viewed as a beneficiary for companies like Jack Henry & Associates rather than a threat. |
AI Technology Industrial Automation Disruption | |
Small CapsThe manager is increasingly constructive on small-cap equities broadly and high-quality small-cap businesses in particular. They believe 2026 will mark a rotation back toward fundamentals, with quality small-cap stocks outperforming not only lower-quality peers but also large-cap equities. Small-cap performance in 2025 was driven by lower-quality factors which historically proves unsustainable. |
Small Caps Quality Fundamentals Rotation Outperformance | |
GeopoliticalThe excursion in the Middle East will likely drive markets through the rest of the year. The manager has made adjustments based on how they anticipate supply disruptions playing out. Geopolitical developments including reduced Iranian supply and broader regional instability are contributing to higher commodity pricing. |
Geopolitical Middle East Supply Disruption Iran | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Industrial GasesSOL Group operates dual-engine industrial gas franchise serving 50k customers across 32 countries plus homecare health business. Manager views gases as expensive to transport creating local oligopolies with high barriers to entry through infrastructure networks built over decades. |
Industrial Gases Infrastructure Oligopoly Barriers Distribution |
HomecareVivisol homecare division serves 750k patients across Europe, growing 13% annually driven by aging demographics and healthcare systems moving chronic care from hospitals to homes. Manager sees this as defensive recurring revenue business with high switching costs. |
Homecare Demographics Healthcare Recurring Vivisol | |
AIManager maintains cautious stance on AI impact, preferring businesses unlikely to see unit economics negatively affected by AI. Appetite has grown for high barriers to entry and exceptionally resilient business models since AI boom. |
AI Disruption Resilience Barriers Software | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Data CentersECG benefits from exponential power demand from AI and data centers, exemplifying Jevons Paradox where efficiency gains are overwhelmed by usage growth. The company's backlog has grown over 40% driven primarily by data center and high-tech infrastructure projects. |
AI Infrastructure Power Backlog Growth |
Grid UpgradeECG is positioned to benefit from grid modernization needs as aging utility infrastructure graded D+ by industry assessments requires substantial investment. The company focuses on transmission and distribution markets addressing these infrastructure needs. |
Transmission Distribution Infrastructure Modernization Utilities | |
Energy TransitionMSA Safety is positioned to benefit as the world navigates energy transition and electrification, with safety remaining paramount for executives. The company manufactures safety equipment for hazardous environments across oil & gas, construction, mining, and military applications. |
Safety Electrification Equipment Industrial Transition | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Energy TransitionThe manager increased exposure to energy transition by adding Range Resources and Antero Midstream Corp. Both companies play critical roles in energy and electrification, with electrification expected to see significant demand growth in coming years and decades. Range is a low-cost natural gas producer while Antero specializes in transporting, gathering and processing natural gas. |
Natural Gas Electrification Energy Infrastructure Midstream Utilities |
Trade PolicyThe manager anticipates substantial headwinds to global trade and references the protectionist Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act from the 1930s as historical precedent. They remain skeptical that broad global tariffs will achieve their intended objectives and are focusing on domestically-oriented companies to balance cyclicality and tariff impacts. |
Tariffs Protectionism Domestic Global Trade Policy | |
Regional BanksThe strategy added Pinnacle Financial Partners, a high-performing regional bank with a relationship-centric business model focused on commercial and affluent clients across the Southeast. The bank differentiates through talent-first strategy and maintains strong asset quality with conservative loan-to-value ratios. |
Banking Southeast Commercial Lending Asset Quality Financial Services | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Data CentersStrong growth in data centers drove significant outperformance in Modine Manufacturing. Most forecasts predict a doubling of data center demand by 2030, with the manager noting this trend shows no signs of slowing. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Cooling |
AIArtificial intelligence growth is expected to persist and provide opportunities. The manager focuses on picks and shovels investments like semiconductor equipment providers and companies enabling data transmission. Utility investments are driven by projected doubling of electricity demand over five years to support AI growth. |
AI Semiconductors Electricity Infrastructure Growth | |
Trade PolicyThe manager expects potential economic shocks in sectors sensitive to evolving tariff discussions with Canada and Mexico. They are exploring opportunities in industries poised to benefit from U.S.-China trade tensions while minimizing exposure to China in supplier and customer relationships. |
Tariffs Trade China Geopolitics | |
OncologyExelixis is a commercial-stage oncology company with blockbuster asset Cabozantinib generating approximately $2B in global revenues. The company focuses on driving innovation to improve standard of care for patients rather than pursuing me-too programs. |
Cancer Pharmaceuticals Innovation FDA | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIThe manager sees tremendous opportunity for companies to use AI to improve productivity and growth, though most management teams are unprepared to implement it effectively. Three of their best performers provide picks and shovels to make AI happen: Amkor Technologies, Modine Manufacturing, and Veeco Instruments. |
Semiconductors Data Centers Equipment Productivity Technology |
Small CapsThe Russell 2000's stagnation since early 2021 marks the longest stretch of negative returns since 1998-2003, but unlike that period, the current stagnation occurred without a major economic shock. The manager believes small caps' relative underperformance is nearing its end with potential for a multi-year bull market to follow. |
Russell 2000 Underperformance Valuation Opportunity Outperformance | |
SemiconductorsThe strategy has exposure to semiconductor equipment companies like Veeco Instruments that provide essential equipment for AI chip production. The insatiable need for data storage and retrieval by AI servers has significantly increased demand for memory and storage, benefiting semiconductor equipment suppliers. |
Equipment Memory Storage Manufacturing Technology | |
AgricultureLimoneira represents a deep dive opportunity in agriculture with 15% market share in the US lemon industry and significant undervalued land and water rights. The company is pivoting towards avocado production, a more profitable segment with growing US demand at 4.4% CAGR over the past ten years. |
Land Water Rights Avocados Sustainability Real Estate | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Small CapsSmall-caps continued what appears to be a new bull market since hitting bottom last October. Small-caps still have significant ground to cover, having last peaked in 2021, while large-caps have continued to hit record highs. The manager believes they're in the 9th inning of large-cap outperformance and the next five and ten-year outlook for small versus large appears highly enticing. |
Small Caps Value Russell 2500 Outperformance Cycle |
AIThe recent market leaders' performance is fueled by the remarkable growth of artificial intelligence. Many small-caps have exposure to AI, and the portfolio has benefited. The growing energy consumption of data centers due to advancements in Artificial Intelligence are bolstering prospects for portfolio companies like ATKR. |
AI Data Centers Growth Technology Infrastructure | |
Data CentersA significant aspect of the thesis on Modine revolves around data center growth, which shows no signs of slowing down. Most forecasts predict a doubling of data center demand by 2030 at the slowest pace, or as early as 2026 at the fastest. The growing energy consumption of data centers due to AI advancements are bolstering ATKR's prospects. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Growth Electrical AI | |
Energy TransitionATKR is well-positioned as we transition towards a future where electricity takes center stage. Operating in thematic markets experiencing secular growth, ATKR is positioned in key sectors such as the solar industry and EV batteries where they play a crucial role as a supplier of electrical components. Sustained demand for solar products should continue, driven partly by policy initiatives like bringing manufacturing back to the US from China. |
Energy Transition Solar Electric Vehicles Electrical Infrastructure | |
QualityTo mitigate macro concerns, the manager focuses on investing in quality businesses led by management teams capable of adapting to the constantly evolving environment. Over 99% of portfolio companies are profitable and they pay close attention to their use of debt. Given the macro concerns, it's not surprising that quality factors like return on capital have begun to outperform and they believe that outperformance will continue. |
Quality Profitability Return on Capital Management Debt |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | MEOH | Methanex Corporation | Chemicals | Commodity Chemicals | Bull | NASDAQ | Commodity chemicals, Decarbonization, ESG, geopolitical, Global Production, Logistics Network, Methanol, Middle East, Pricing power, Supply Disruption | Login |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | DKS | Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. | Specialty Retail | Specialty Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Athletic Retail, Cyclical, FIFA World Cup, Foot Locker, market share, merchandising, Nike, Premium Experience, Sporting goods, Youth sports | Login |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. | Information Technology Services | IT Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI Beneficiary, banking technology, Core Processing, Fintech, High retention, market share, recurring revenue, Regulatory, Small Banks, switching costs | Login |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | CENX | Century Aluminum Company | Aluminum | Aluminum | Bull | NASDAQ | Aluminum, capacity expansion, geopolitical, Oklahoma Project, operating leverage, Primary Production, Reindustrialization, renewable energy, Reshoring, tariffs | Login |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | LEG | Leggett & Platt, Inc. | Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances | Home Furnishings | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | automotive, Bedding Components, Cyclical Recovery, Free Cash Flow, furniture, Manufacturer, market leadership, restructuring, takeover target, Value | Login |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | Grocery Stores | Food & Staples Retailing | Bull | NASDAQ | Customer loyalty, gross margins, growth, health-focused, Natural Foods, Organic, Private-label, Specialty Grocery, Store growth, supply chain | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | ADEA | Adeia Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductor IP | Bull | NASDAQ | Hybridbonding, Ip, Licensing, royalties, semiconductors | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | CNK | Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | Communication Services | Movies & Entertainment | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | Boxoffice, disruption, Risk, Streaming, Theaters | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | MRX | Marex Group PLC | Financials | Capital Markets | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | Capitalmarkets, Sentiment, Shortinterest, valuation, Volatility | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | HAE | Haemonetics Corporation | Health Care | Health Care Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | growth, Hospitals, Medicaldevices, Plasma, recovery | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | CIEN | Ciena Corporation | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, backlog, datacenters, Networking, Optical | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Education Services | Bull | NASDAQ | compounder, Education, Enrollment, Regulation, ROIC | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | LMNR | Limoneira Company | Consumer Staples | Agricultural Products | Bull | NASDAQ | agriculture, Assetvalue, land, restructuring, Water | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | SNV | Synovus Financial Corp. | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Accretion, banking, merger, rerating, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | ECG | Everus Construction Group Inc. | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | backlog, construction, datacenters, infrastructure, tariffs | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | LMNR | Limoneira Company | Consumer Staples | Food Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Agribusiness, Citrus, Farmland, realestate, Water | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | GFF | Griffon Corporation | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | brands, Building, Doors, Homecenter, Margins | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | GFF | Griffon Corporation | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building Products, Commercial Doors, Consumer products, discount, Garage Doors, innovation, market share, operating margins, Portfolio Streamlining, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Peck | MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Detection, Fire, Industrial, PPE, Safety | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | MSA | MSA Safety | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | NYSE | construction, discount, Electrification, energy transition, Hazardous Environments, High quality, Military, Mining, Oil & Gas, Safety Equipment, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | ECG | Everus Construction Group | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, construction, data centers, discount, Distribution, Electrical, engineering, Grid modernization, spinoff, Transmission, Utility Infrastructure, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | NASDAQ | asset quality, Commercial Banking, fee income, regional banks, SBA Loans, Southeast, Talent Strategy | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | RRC | Range Resources Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | debt management, Electrification, energy transition, ESG, Free Cash Flow, Low-cost producer, natural gas | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | LMNR | Limoneira Company | Consumer Staples | Agricultural Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Agricultural Products, asset monetization, Avocados, Citrus, land development, Real Estate, Water Rights | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | dividend yield, energy transition, Fee Based, midstream, Natural Gas Infrastructure, Toll Road Model, Water Handling | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | COOP | Mr. Cooper Group Inc | Financials | Thrifts & Mortgage Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | Corporate action, financial services, merger, Mortgage servicing, real estate finance | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | EXEL | Exelixis, Inc. | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | biotechnology, blockbuster drug, healthcare, Oncology, pipeline, Standard of Care, Value | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | COOP | Mr. Cooper Group Inc. | Financials | Thrifts & Mortgage Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | financials, Interest rates, Mortgage Servicer, Non-bank, ROE, scale, Value | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | DAR | Darling Ingredients Inc. | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | NYSE | Biofuels, Circular economy, ESG, Joint venture, renewable energy, Sustainable Ingredients, Value | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | NCMI | National CineMedia, Inc. | Communication Services | Advertising | Bull | NASDAQ | Advertising Network, competitive moat, entertainment, Free Cash Flow, Post-Pandemic Recovery, Theater Advertising | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | VECO | Veeco Instruments Inc | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Cyclical, Laser Annealing, Memory, Process Equipment, semiconductor equipment, Storage, technology | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | LMNR | Limoneira | Consumer Staples | Agricultural Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Agricultural Products, Asset Play, Avocados, Land Rights, Lemons, real estate development, strategic review, Sustainability, Value, Water Rights | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Riverwater Sustainable Value Strategy | ATKR | Atkore Inc | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | NYSE | Artificial Intelligence, data centers, dividend, electrical equipment, Electrification, ESG, Ev infrastructure, infrastructure, manufacturing, secular growth, Solar | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| PLXS | Plexus (PLXS) was the top contributor in the first quarter. The company reported a very solid fiscal Q2, with strength coming in all segments. PLXS has experienced significant momentum in its Industrial segment, with continued robust semiconductor capital equipment orders and new wins with a robotics customer. Health care also performed well, with new orders in surgical and monitoring devices. PLXS continues to be an exceptional operator, leveraging AI for process improvement, driving returns on invested capital to near record levels. |
| HAE | Haemonetics Corporation (HAE) was the top detractor in the first quarter (after being the top contributor in the fourth quarter of 2025). It was also the worst performer during the third quarter of 2025. HAE has two main businesses: selling equipment and disposables into plasma collection centers; and selling devices into the vascular surgical market. While it has required patience, something investors are short on, HAE's position in the plasma market is seeing strength, with growing collection volumes, share gains, and favorable pricing, returning this business to growth for the first time in two years. The interventional cardiology business has been challenged by increased competition. HAE has invested in its commercial team and has begun to see share gains again. We feel confident that HAE will compete well fundamentally, and hopeful that the market will give them credit for it. |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG) is a diversified manufacturer of engineered components for bedding, furniture, and automotive markets. We'd wager that at least one bed in your home contains Leggett components — at 50% market share, the odds are squarely in our favor. With a veteran CEO returning, the company recently completed a major restructuring expected to generate meaningful annual cost savings, while deleveraging through asset sales and a reduced dividend. The stock has sold off to multi-decade lows as cyclical weakness across its end markets has pressured earnings. LEG trades at less than 10x 2026 estimated earnings vs. historically trading at over 17x. We are confident in the underlying business given its durable market leadership, vertically integrated supply chain, strong free cash flow generation (it trades at a double digit free cash flow yield), and potential positive turn in the mattress industry. Furthermore, the recent unsolicited takeover bid from Somnigroup underscores the significant value not reflected in the current stock price. |
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) is a specialty grocery retailer focused on fresh, natural, and organic foods. Its unique health-focused stores built around its farm-stand heritage differentiate it from conventional grocers and position it to capitalize on the secular consumer shift toward better-for-you food. With stores in 25 states nationwide, the company is executing a long-term ~10% store growth algorithm, including into underpenetrated markets across the Northeast and Midwest. The stock retreated meaningfully from its 2025 peak as comparable store sales decelerated due to macro-driven consumer caution. We are confident in the underlying business given its best-in-class gross margins, curated product selection driving customer loyalty, and improving fundamentals through private label expansion and supply chain self-distribution. We like that it trades at a below market multiple of 13.9x 2026 estimated earnings, but still is on track to continue its double digit earnings growth algorithm. |
| MEOH | Methanex (MEOH) is the world's largest producer and distributor of methanol. We believe the stock is well positioned to benefit from a tightening global supply-demand backdrop, particularly in light of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The company's global production footprint and integrated logistics network provide a structural advantage in supplying customers during periods of disruption. Recent geopolitical developments—specifically reduced Iranian supply and broader regional instability—are already contributing to higher methanol pricing. Importantly, this dynamic is occurring against a backdrop of structurally constrained supply and steady demand growth across industrial and energy-related applications, suggesting pricing strength may be more durable than typical cyclical spikes. It trades at 10.7x estimated 2026 earnings. From a responsible business perspective, we believe that Methanex stands out within the chemicals sector. It has industry-leading safety performance, no major environmental incidents in recent years, and meaningful progress on emissions intensity reduction ahead of stated targets. The company is also actively investing in lower-carbon methanol pathways, including biomethanol and carbon capture initiatives, positioning it to participate in longer-term decarbonization trends such as marine fuel transition. |
| DKS | Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) presents what we see to be a compelling investment case driven by a combination of cyclical tailwinds and company-specific execution. On the demand side, higher tax refunds relative to last year should provide incremental support to discretionary spending, particularly in categories such as athletic apparel, footwear, and equipment, where DKS has strong market positioning. This is further amplified by the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, which is expected to drive increased participation and consumer interest in soccer and related sporting categories, creating a multi-quarter demand tailwind. It trades at 14.9x estimated 2026 earnings. Importantly, DKS is also well positioned to benefit from improving industry dynamics, including a potential turnaround at Foot Locker in the second half of 2026. This could help stabilize key vendor relationships—most notably with Nike—and lead to a more rational promotional environment across athletic retail. While near-term consumer headwinds remain, we believe DKS's differentiated merchandising strategy, premium store experience, and strong relationship with youth sports position the company to capture outsized share as conditions normalize, supporting continued margin resilience and long-term earnings growth. |
| JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) represents what we consider to be a high-quality compounder that we find to be recently more attractive following a valuation reset driven by broad-based concerns around AI disruption in financial technology. JKHY provides backend technology for small and medium sized banks. We believe the sell-off has been largely indiscriminate, creating a rare opportunity to acquire a mission-critical, deeply entrenched business at a meaningful discount to its historical valuation. We also believe their largest competitor will force RFPs to Jack Henry as they are consolidating platforms which can cause havoc for customers. This could create a very compelling opportunity to take market share. JKHY's competitive moat remains intact, underpinned by several durable advantages: a highly regulated end market, long-standing customer relationships with community and regional banks, and deep integration within clients' core processing and digital infrastructure. These systems are not easily displaced, given high switching costs, regulatory complexity, and the operational risk associated with transitioning core banking platforms. While the market has questioned the long-term impact of AI on traditional fintech providers, we view JKHY as a beneficiary rather than a casualty, given its role as a trusted technology partner and data steward within the banking ecosystem. With strong recurring revenue, high retention rates, and consistent free cash flow generation, JKHY offers a compelling combination of resilience and long-term growth, particularly at current valuation levels which we believe understate the durability of its business model. |
| CENX | CENX is the largest domestic producer of primary aluminum in the United States, operating smelters in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iceland with combined annual production capacity of approximately 770,000 tonnes. Glencore plc is the largest shareholder at approximately 30% beneficial ownership and also the company's largest customer (54% of 2025 sales). In January 2026, Century announced a landmark joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to build a 750,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma — the first new U.S. smelter since 1980. Century will own 40% of the joint venture, supported by a $500 million DOE grant. This single project would more than double current U.S. primary aluminum production and represents a decade-long growth runway. Construction is expected to begin late 2026, with first production by the end of the decade. Century reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $425.1 million on $2.53 billion of net sales. Management guided Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $215–235 million, implying an annualized run rate approaching $900 million as higher LME pricing flows through on a lagged basis. At the time of purchase, CENX shares were trading at approximately 6.1x our 2026E EBITDA and roughly 2.1x trailing twelve-month sales. |
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