| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Muhlenkamp's Q1 2026 letter addresses the significant market impact of renewed U.S.-Israel combat operations against Iran starting February 28th. Iran's response included closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf energy facilities, driving crude oil from $65 to $102 per barrel. This geopolitical shock created a risk-off environment with oil and dollar strength, while bonds, stocks, and gold declined. The S&P 500 fell 4% from February peaks, and gold dropped 13.5% from January highs despite remaining up 8% year-to-date. Domestically, manufacturing showed improvement with PMI moving above 50 for the first time since mid-2022, though GDP growth slowed to 0.70% in Q4 due to government shutdown effects. The Federal Reserve held rates steady amid inflation concerns and mixed employment data. Muhlenkamp responded by taking profits, raising cash, and increasing overseas exposure, anticipating eventual dollar weakness. Key unresolved questions include the duration of the Iran conflict, oil price trajectory, AI boom sustainability, and regulatory stability affecting corporate decision-making.
Despite geopolitical turmoil and market volatility from the Iran war, the manager maintains a cautiously optimistic stance while increasing cash and overseas exposure in anticipation of eventual dollar weakness.
Manager expects continued interesting events and remains focused on overseas investments as a hedge against expected dollar weakness. Questions about AI boom duration, tariff/regulatory stability, and Iran war duration remain unresolved.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | Dollar, geopolitics, gold, inflation, Iran, Manufacturing, oil | - | Iran war drives oil from $65 to $102, creating market volatility with S&P down 4% and gold down 13.5%. Manufacturing PMI finally breaks above 50 after years of contraction. Muhlenkamp takes profits, raises cash, and increases overseas exposure anticipating dollar weakness. Key questions remain around war duration, oil prices, and AI boom sustainability. |
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, cyclicals, Fed policy, gold, inflation, Manufacturing, semiconductors | - | Muhlenkamp Fund delivered strong returns from gold positions (70-175% gains) while avoiding AI despite market leadership. The fund invested in cyclical downturns including chemicals and semiconductors, expecting eventual recovery. Key concerns include Fed policy contradictions, manufacturing weakness, and regulatory uncertainty. Manager expects AI boom to bust but maintains contrarian positioning for 2026. |
| Oct 15 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, gold, healthcare, inflation, materials, Recession, valuation | - | Muhlenkamp sees moderate economic growth avoiding recession but warns of elevated S&P 500 valuations and an AI bubble showing classic boom characteristics. With unsustainable fiscal deficits driving currency debasement concerns, they've selectively added Healthcare and Materials positions while maintaining gold exposure, expecting the 42% year-to-date gold rally to continue for years. |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Cash, gold, inflation, Recession, tariffs | - | Despite policy headlines, economic fundamentals remain stable with inflation at 2.4% and markets at highs. Gold's 25% year-to-date gain has benefited holdings significantly. Tariff uncertainty creates data volatility but should resolve soon. Recession risk persists with weak economic indicators. Fund holds cash for potential opportunities and expects continued gold outperformance. |
| Apr 10 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BMW, HMC, TSLA | Deregulation, Government, inflation, Recession, tariffs, Trade Policy, value | - | Muhlenkamp Fund benefited from Q1 2025 rotation away from market darlings amid Trump tariff chaos and aggressive deregulation. Management systematically reviewing holdings for regulatory impact, already selling one position. Cautious on recession risk from weak consumer data but positioned for opportunities from policy-driven volatility and regulatory burden reduction. |
| Jan 30 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | China, energy, gold, inflation, rates, technology, value | - | Muhlenkamp maintains contrarian positioning with significant energy and gold exposure as inflation hedges while avoiding overvalued tech stocks. Recently added Chinese investments for value. Expects rising inflation driven by increased bank lending and deficit spending. Positioned defensively for higher rates and potential currency debasement while seeking opportunities in undervalued sectors. |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Cash, Election, Federal Reserve, inflation, rates, Valuations | - | Muhlenkamp Fund turned defensive amid all-time high markets and elevated valuations, selling overvalued positions and building cash reserves. With mixed economic data and Fed rate cuts historically coinciding with recession starts, the manager remains cautious while preparing for opportunities that may emerge from changing political and economic conditions post-election. |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, MSFT, NVDA | banks, energy, inflation, interest rates, Recession, technology | - | Muhlenkamp Fund positions defensively with energy overweights and cash holdings amid persistent recession signals and above-target inflation. Reduced overvalued tech positions while maintaining energy exposure as inflation hedge. Bond market stress continues pressuring banks. Fund holds cash earning 5% while waiting for attractive deployment opportunities in challenging valuation environment. |
| Apr 30 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Commercial real estate, energy, gold, healthcare, inflation, Recession | - | Muhlenkamp positions defensively for economic uncertainty with energy for inflation protection and healthcare plus cash for recession scenarios. Added to gold miners despite record gold prices not lifting mining stocks. Remains cautious on recession risk from inverted yield curve and commercial real estate troubles while monitoring Federal Reserve policy direction. |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | energy, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, Recession, technology | - | Muhlenkamp Fund returned 14% in 2023, underperforming due to low tech exposure. The manager expects a structural shift to higher inflation and rates, positioning defensively in energy, healthcare, and industrials while maintaining cash for opportunities. Portfolio designed to perform across scenarios including potential 2024 recession and government deficit-driven rate increases. |
| Oct 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Banking, Bonds, energy, gold, inflation, rates, Recession | - | Muhlenkamp expects persistent 3-4% inflation driven by government policies despite Fed efforts, with rates likely peaked but long-term yields having upside to 4-6%. Portfolio positioned in energy for inflation protection, gold as dollar hedge, and cash for optionality while avoiding long-duration bonds. Recession odds 50/50 with commercial real estate and banking risks monitored. |
| Jul 31 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | AI, Banking, Commercial real estate, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, Recession | - | Muhlenkamp turns cautiously optimistic as inflation falls and recession risk diminishes, though banking stress and commercial real estate problems persist. The Fed likely finished hiking rates to avoid conflicting with balance sheet reduction. AI drove narrow market gains while the manager deployed some cash into new positions, maintaining significant liquidity for future opportunities. |
| Apr 30 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Banking, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, Recession | - | Muhlenkamp Fund stays defensively positioned as banking crisis unfolds and recession becomes almost certain. The Fed faces an impossible choice between fighting 6% inflation and supporting stressed banks. Three bank failures exposed systemic vulnerabilities from bond losses and deposit flight. Fund remains cash heavy, expecting better investment opportunities from the coming economic downturn. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilCrude oil prices increased from about $65 per barrel in February to roughly $102 on March 31st due to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and conducting attacks on Gulf energy facilities. Higher oil prices increase risks of higher inflation. |
Energy Geopolitics Inflation Iran Commodities |
GoldGold dropped about 13.5% from its January peak but is still up nearly 8% year to date. A stronger dollar is a headwind, though structural tailwinds including central bank buying, gold backed crypto currency buying, and profligate government spending remain in place. |
Dollar Central Banks Crypto Inflation Safe Haven | |
| 2025 Q4 |
GoldGold surged 70% in 2025, with the fund's gold companies gaining 70-175%. The managers cite central bank accumulation, potential international trade settlement in gold, and cryptocurrency industry investment as drivers. They note retail buyers are now purchasing rather than selling into high prices, contrary to historical patterns. |
Gold Miners Gold Royalties Central Banks Cryptocurrency Physical Gold |
AIThe fund maintains limited AI exposure, believing the boom will eventually bust. They observed a shift in market reaction to AI capital spending announcements from positive in early 2025 to negative by November-December, interpreting this as waning excitement about AI prospects. |
Artificial Intelligence Capital Spending Technology Bubble | |
InflationCPI inflation remained in the 2.3-3.0% range throughout 2025, above the Fed's 2% target. The managers question the Fed's decision to restart asset purchases while inflation exceeds targets, believing this could create more inflation. They view falling oil prices as helping keep inflation from running higher. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Oil Prices | |
SemiconductorsThe fund invested in a microchip maker during a severe cyclical downturn, following their historical strategy of buying cyclical companies at cycle lows. These investments have not yet generated returns but the managers expect them to be profitable over time. |
Semiconductor Cycle Cyclical Investing | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI is experiencing a massive boom with investor enthusiasm driving performance across chip companies, software companies, utilities, and construction companies building data centers. CEOs are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to building AI infrastructure. However, the manager expects this boom will eventually turn to bust when returns on AI investments prove disappointing. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Software Infrastructure Spending |
GoldGold has risen 42% year-to-date as of September 25th, 2025, driven by concerns about national debt sustainability and expected currency debasement. The manager believes the reasons to own gold remain valid and expects the current run may continue for years. Their gold miners and royalty companies continue making new highs. |
Gold Miners Gold Royalties Inflation Currency | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GoldGold prices are up roughly 25% year to date, benefiting the fund's gold-related holdings. The manager believes gold investments will continue to perform well going forward. |
Gold Precious Metals Inflation Hedge |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump has imposed numerous tariffs against various countries and industries with goals to encourage U.S. manufacturing investment, raise government revenue, and use tariffs as foreign policy leverage. The rapidly changing tariff policy has created business chaos and contributed to stock market volatility and weak sentiment surveys. |
Tariffs Manufacturing Trade War Policy |
Industrial PolicyThe new administration is restructuring government and reducing regulatory burden through DOGE's campaign against bureaucracy. EPA and FCC are reviewing all regulations from top to bottom, including EPA's Endangerment Finding, with a Presidential Order requiring elimination of 10 regulations for every new one imposed. |
Deregulation DOGE EPA Government Efficiency | |
| 2024 Q4 |
InflationManager expects inflation to rise rather than fall, driven by increased bank lending capacity and large federal deficits requiring imaginative funding mechanisms. Views inflation as a key impediment to wealth building over time. |
Inflation CPI Currency Federal Deficits Monetary Policy |
EnergyFund holds significant investments in energy companies both for value opportunities and as hedges against inflation and currency debasement. |
Energy Inflation Hedge Value | |
GoldMaintains significant investments in gold-related companies as hedges against inflation and currency debasement, alongside finding good values in the sector. |
Gold Inflation Hedge Currency | |
ChinaRecently initiated several small investments in Chinese companies that the manager finds attractive despite the additional risks of international investments. |
China International Value | |
| 2024 Q3 |
InflationCPI inflation improved to 2.5% in August from 3.3% in May. The combination of falling inflation and rising unemployment prompted the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.50% in September. The manager notes that changes to interest rates affect the economy with variable lag. |
CPI Federal Reserve Rates Unemployment GDP |
Trade PolicyBoth presidential candidates seem comfortable with existing tariffs or increased tariffs and are interested in encouraging domestic production and discouraging imports. The manager views this as significant for the economic environment regardless of election outcome. |
Tariffs Domestic Production Imports Election Policy | |
| 2024 Q2 |
InflationManager expects inflation to remain above the Fed's 2% target due to debt-fueled government spending and increasing regulation. Current CPI at 3.3% with expectations that long-term treasury rates could reach 5-7% range. This inflationary environment is driving their energy sector positioning. |
CPI Federal Reserve Interest Rates Government Spending Energy |
AIArtificial intelligence companies, particularly Nvidia, have driven most of the S&P 500's 15.29% year-to-date return. Nvidia achieved 150% returns and briefly became the most valuable S&P 500 company, trading at 25 times sales estimates, indicating very high market expectations. |
Nvidia Technology Semiconductors Valuations Growth | |
Credit StressThe 47-month bond bear market has created significant stress for financial institutions holding long-term debt. Silicon Valley Bank's failure exemplifies this risk, with Norinchukin Bank announcing $63 billion in bond sales to stem losses. Rising rates continue creating problems for banks and the Federal Government. |
Banks Bonds Interest Rates Financial Stress Government Debt | |
| 2024 Q1 |
GoldGold reached all-time highs at the end of March. The manager added to holdings of gold miners and royalty companies despite their share prices not moving with the underlying commodity price, expecting eventual convergence. |
Gold Miners Gold Royalties Precious Metals |
Commercial Real EstateCommercial real estate remains troubled with low occupancy rates and declining asset values, putting pressure on banks and other lenders. This represents a significant economic drag with deflationary tendencies. |
Real Estate Banking Credit Stress | |
| 2023 Q4 |
InflationManager expects inflation to remain similar or higher over the next couple of years, departing from the 2009-2021 low inflation period. They view this as a key risk factor for 2024 and believe they are in a period of structurally higher inflation and interest rates. |
CPI Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic Policy |
AIThe emergence of new artificial intelligence tools in March 2023 sparked tech investor imagination and drove performance in the Magnificent Seven companies. AI developments were seen as a key catalyst for technology sector outperformance during the year. |
Technology Innovation Semiconductors Cloud Software | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationManager expects inflation to average 3-4% going forward, roughly twice the post-2008 average. Views government regulation, spending, higher energy prices, and potential wage-price spiral as inflationary forces that will keep inflation elevated despite Fed efforts. |
CPI Federal Reserve Rates Government Spending Energy |
RatesFed raised rates to 5.25-5.5% range with 10-year Treasury moving from 3.8% to 4.5%. Manager believes Fed is likely done raising rates due to banking stress and government interest expense concerns. Expects long rates of 4-6% based on inflation plus GDP growth. |
Federal Funds Treasury Mortgage Banking Duration | |
Commercial Real EstateHigher rates and changing work patterns have hit commercial real estate values hard. Manager continues monitoring banks with significant exposure to this sector as a potential source of stress. |
Banking Work Patterns Rates Credit Stress | |
| 2023 Q2 |
InflationU.S. inflation peaked at over 9% in June 2022 and has fallen to 4% by May 2023, driven by declining energy and food prices. The manager expects inflation to stabilize or continue downward if the Fed maintains current rates and shrinks its balance sheet, but warns it could rise again if the Fed expands its balance sheet due to banking problems or if federal deficits and regulation increase. |
CPI Federal Reserve Energy Food Balance Sheet |
Commercial Real EstateThe manager identifies real problems in commercial real estate where operators are sending keys to lenders instead of making payments, echoing the 'jingle mail' phenomenon from 2006-2008. This could create problems for banks holding these loans and represents a potential source of financial crisis. |
Banking Credit Stress Financial Crisis Loans | |
AIThe rollout of new artificial intelligence tools caught popular imagination and drove AI-related companies sharply upward, with some hitting new all-time highs. This AI momentum was a key driver of the stock market's advance in the second quarter. |
Technology Stock Market Innovation | |
| 2023 Q1 |
InflationInflation remained elevated at 6% year-over-year in February 2023, down from 9.1% peak. The manager expects inflation to decline to 4-5% over the next year but then rise again, expressing skepticism that controlling inflation will be easier this time compared to the 1970s when it took a decade of strong monetary action. |
CPI Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Policy |
Credit StressThe rapid failure of Silvergate Capital, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank highlighted banking sector vulnerabilities. Banks face dual pressures from unrealized losses on bond portfolios due to rising rates and deposit flight to higher-yielding money market funds. The manager sees no end to these pressures and expects banks to remain under stress. |
Regional Banks Deposit Flight Bond Losses Bank Failures Financial Stability | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve raised rates to 4.75%-5.00% range while continuing balance sheet reduction. Rising rates created the banking crisis by reducing bond values and making money market funds more attractive than bank deposits. The Fed faces a dilemma between fighting inflation through rate hikes and addressing banking stress. |
Federal Funds Rate Monetary Tightening Balance Sheet Interest Rate Policy Central Banking | |
LiquidityThe Fed created a new lending program allowing banks to borrow against par value of high-quality assets rather than market value, providing $340 billion in loans within two weeks. This represents a significant policy response to banking stress while the Fed simultaneously tries to reduce money supply to fight inflation. |
Bank Lending Emergency Facilities Collateral Financial Support Crisis Response |
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