| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.9% | 2.0% | 7.4% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 7.4% | 28.4% |
Burke Wealth Management's Ken Burke expresses optimism for 2026 following a tumultuous 2025 marked by trade policy restructuring and continued AI revolution momentum. The core thesis centers on AI infrastructure investment being fundamentally different from the dot.com bubble, as current compute capacity cannot meet existing demand driven by three mega-trends: CPU to GPU transition in data centers, AI-powered recommender systems replacing traditional ones, and emerging robotics applications. The manager views infrastructure buildout as the most secure AI investment opportunity, explaining continued positions in Nvidia and ASML plus new Micron investment. Portfolio changes included adding Alphabet back after regulatory concerns subsided, while consolidating enterprise software exposure into platform companies ServiceNow and Salesforce by exiting Adobe due to AI disintermediation risks. The Trump administration's growth-focused policies and deregulation agenda provide a favorable equity backdrop. Key risks include AI bubble concerns and potential tariff volatility from Supreme Court rulings. The manager expects 2026 to be quieter politically while AI investment themes continue driving portfolio positioning and market dynamics.
The manager believes the AI revolution is fundamentally different from the dot.com bubble because current compute capacity cannot satisfy existing demand, driven by three mega-trends: CPU to GPU transition, AI-driven recommender systems, and future robotics applications, making infrastructure investments the most secure part of the AI value chain.
We look towards 2026 with a sense of optimism. The Trump administration has made a heavy bet on domestic growth and we think that is a favorable macro backdrop for equities. The AI revolution continues to prove both exhilarating and challenging for investors to digest but ultimately, we think the investment occurring today is going to unleash unparalleled productivity gains, albeit with a serving or two of disruption along the way. We like the way our portfolio is positioned for this new environment.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, ADBE, ASML, BWXT, CMCSA, CRM, GOOGL, ISRG, META, MU, NOW, NVDA, ORCL, SNOW, TDG | AI, Data centers, Enterprise Software, growth, semiconductors, technology, Trade Policy | - | The AI revolution continues to gain steam with expectations for a slowdown in data center infrastructure spend proving incorrect. The manager believes the current AI… |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASML NA, BWXT, CHTR, CRM, MU, NOW | Artificial Intelligence, Enterprise Software, Nuclear Energy, semiconductors, Trade Policy | - | The quarter was shaped by a pro-growth US Policy backdrop combining tariffs, manufacturing reshoring, and corporate tax reform, creating a supportive environment for domestic investment… |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ABNB, BWXT, NVDA, NVO, SNOW, UBER | innovation, scalability, secular growth, Valuation discipline, volatility | - | The letter focuses on secular growth businesses with long runways and scalable models. Management highlights patience through volatility and disciplined valuation. Growth is framed as… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ABT, CHTR, CRM, ICE, NOW, NVDA, TDG, UNH | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ADBE, AMZN, CHTR, CRWD, GOOG, NVO, SNOW, UEEC | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
Data CentersEMCOR Group was initiated as a new position, viewed as a critical contractor enabling multi-year investment cycles across data centers, semiconductor fabrication, electrification, and broader infrastructure modernization. Its decentralized, cash-generative model, recurring service base, and exposure to structural growth drivers create a profile viewed as more durable than a typical cyclical contractor framework. |
Infrastructure Electrification Recurring Revenue Growth Drivers | |
SemiconductorsMACOM Technology Solutions rose nearly +40% as the company experienced broad-based demand, similar to many semiconductor companies in 2025. The team exited Astera Labs following industry conference presentations that suggested emerging competitive risks and concerns over single customer concentration, while initiating a position in Credo Technology for AI-connectivity exposure. |
Demand Competition Connectivity Customer Concentration | |
SoftwareThe fund maintains significant exposure to enterprise software companies, particularly cybersecurity and systems software. They believe complexity of enterprise integration protects established players from AI disruption, with companies like Dynatrace, Varonis, and SentinelOne offering defensive moats through proven resilience and security. |
Enterprise Software SaaS Cybersecurity Systems Software Cloud | |
Trade PolicyTrade policy dominated 2025 with surprise tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China igniting inflation fears and fracturing the post-WWII trade order. The administration threatened sweeping 125% tariffs in April, the highest U.S. tariff rates since 1935, before stepping back to bilateral deals. This policy uncertainty drove demand for tangible assets as hedges. |
Tariffs Trade War Bilateral Inflation Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
Policy |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | AAPL shares rose in 4Q25 following better-than-feared iPhone 17 sell-through trends and stronger Services momentum. The company reported that early adoption of its on-device AI features exceeded internal expectations, particularly in North America and Europe, where attach rates for Pro models remained elevated. Wearables also returned to growth, helped by new health features and improved battery life. |
| ADBE | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| ASML | ASML, TSMC, and Arista Networks are key players in the AI build out supply chain. |
| BWXT | Positive returns from BWX Technologies were not enough to offset the detractors |
| CMCSA | Within the portfolio, stocks like AutoZone, Comcast, and Zoetis were all punished for having perceived headwinds to already lowered expectations for growth. |
| CRM | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| ISRG | ISRG shares appreciated in the fourth quarter after the company delivered strong Q3 results highlighting continued procedure growth and accelerating system placements. Procedure volumes rose in the mid-teens globally, with notable strength in general surgery and urology, while recurring instrument and accessory revenue grew faster than expectations. Management also reported that the early rollout of its next-generation robotic platform was tracking ahead of schedule, with utilization metrics trending positively across beta sites. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MU | Core gains were led by investments in the Technology sector including Micron |
| NOW | In the case of ServiceNow, the stock weakened following reports of a potential large acquisition while the company has also been challenged by bearish sentiment across the software as a service or SAAS segment. |
| NVDA | Capital spending from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and more have led to Nvidia becoming the Rrst 5 trillion market cap company. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| SNOW | Snowflake is a popular cloud-based platform that provides comprehensive data warehousing services, mainly for large businesses. By being cloud native, Snowflake helps companies more easily store, analyze and share their data across an entire organization, which has become a crucial ingredient for companies prioritizing IT infrastructure upgrades that can incorporate more AI functionality. A recently expanded partnership with Anthropic highlights how the company is quickly deepening its AI capabilities. Competition is fierce, but Snowflake has become the leading player in cloud data storage, especially for those companies looking for an agnostic solution that can support the multiple hyperscalers that many companies employ. Snowflake's unique and dominant position in the data warehousing market, in what should be a high-growth profitable and sticky business over time, makes the company an attractive investment. |
| TDG | TransDigm is a leading aerospace parts supplier that designs and produces highly engineered components for almost every commercial and military aircraft in service today. TransDigm has spent the last 30 years building a portfolio of hundreds of thousands of parts with these characteristics. And while each part breaks unpredictably and infrequently, by assembling this vast portfolio, they have essentially created a collection of near monopolies that create an incredibly smooth and high pricing power annuity stream. |
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