| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
UBS advocates deploying cash into risk assets as the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts, expecting three 25bp cuts through Q1 2026. The firm sees opportunities in transformational innovation themes, particularly AI with 41% expected revenue growth through 2030, driving data center demand and grid infrastructure investment. Gold remains attractive as a portfolio diversifier given lower real rates, dollar weakness, and geopolitical risks. Equity markets should benefit from lower rates, earnings growth, and AI tailwinds over 6-12 months. UBS favors US technology, healthcare, utilities, and financials, European quality stocks and industrials, and Asian markets including Japan, China tech, India, and Singapore. The firm recommends reducing dollar exposure tactically while maintaining strategic currency hedging. Energy transition opportunities persist despite policy uncertainty. Key risks include short-term inflation, European growth challenges, and uneven Chinese recovery. Portfolio construction should balance core diversified holdings with satellite positions in high-conviction themes while managing timing through phased deployment.
With the Fed resuming rate cuts and cash yields falling, investors should deploy excess liquidity into diversified portfolios focused on transformational innovation themes like AI, energy transition, and longevity while using gold as a hedge against political and economic risks.
UBS expects lower interest rates, robust earnings growth, and AI tailwinds to support further upside for global equities over the next 6-12 months. The firm maintains a constructive but selective approach, favoring areas benefiting from transformational innovation while managing timing risks through phased deployment strategies.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, diversification, Dollar, Energy Transition, equities, Fed, gold, rates | - | AI trend continues to drive equity performance with global AI revenues expected to grow at 41% compound annual growth rate through 2030. Rising data center demand is pushing US electricity prices higher, spurring record investment in grid infrastructure. Benefits infrastructure, semiconductors, and applications. Gold has rallied strongly year-to-date and remains an effective portfolio diversifier and hedge against political and economic risks. Expected to benefit from lower real interest rates, weaker dollar, robust central bank demand, and investor concerns about rising government debt levels. Energy transition presents significant potential in both public and private markets despite concerns about potential US policy changes. Sustainable investment strategies continue to see attractive long-term growth opportunities. Federal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
| Nov 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | capital, efficiency, integration, regulation, Scale | - | The report centers on UBSs ongoing integration of Credit Suisse, highlighting cost synergies, capital optimization, and progress in account migrations. Management emphasizes strengthened global scale, operational efficiency, and enhanced cross-business connectivity supporting long-term earnings power. Despite regulatory headwinds and elevated capital requirements, the firm outlines a constructive outlook anchored in diversification and disciplined execution. |
| Jul 17 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, diversification, flexibility, macro risk, Resilience | - | The commentary describes market resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical risk, and inflation uncertainty. Management highlights diversification, dynamic allocation, and thematic exposure to AI and energy transition as key drivers of performance. Talent retention and flexible risk management are positioned as strategic advantages. |
| May 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 30 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 12 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 16 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 13 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CloudAmazon's positioning to benefit from both infrastructure and application layers of AI is highlighted. The company's logistical prowess represents one of the foremost moats in business and will be enhanced with AI through better orchestration of logistics assets and buildout of more sophisticated robotics. |
Infrastructure Logistics Automation Efficiency Coordination |
| 2025 Q2 |
Resilience2025 tested the fund's thesis severely with a bankruptcy, major customer losses, and cyber-attacks, yet delivered 17.45% net returns. The manager emphasizes that edge comes from exploiting inefficiency rather than avoiding adversity, demonstrating portfolio resilience through active management. |
Adversity Active Management Drawdowns Volatility |
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