| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -2.5% | -2.5% |
Global equities fell 2.5% in Q1 2026 as US-Israel military actions against Iran triggered a severe energy shock, with oil prices surging 83% and disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This energy crisis coincided with increased protectionism as the US implemented 10% global tariffs after Supreme Court rejection of earlier measures. The combination drove renewed inflation pressures, forcing central banks to maintain tighter policy stances and reducing scope for monetary easing. The ECB raised its inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9% while warning of potential rate hikes. Technology stocks underperformed significantly as AI disruption fears spread to software sectors and private equity firms faced redemption pressures. Commodities rallied 40% led by energy, while precious metals reached record highs on safe-haven demand. Fixed income markets faced volatility as yields rose and risk premiums widened. The global economy now confronts a more challenging environment with tighter financial conditions, fragmented monetary policies across regions, and heightened downside risks from geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
Global markets face significant headwinds from Middle East energy shocks driving inflation, protectionist trade policies, and divergent central bank responses creating a fragmented macroeconomic environment with compressed valuations and heightened risks.
The global economy faces a more challenging path forward, marked by potentially tighter financial conditions and heightened downside risks due to energy shocks, protectionist trade policies, and divergent monetary policies across major economies.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | Central Banks, commodities, energy, Geopolitical, inflation, technology, Trade Policy | - | Global markets declined as Middle East conflict triggered massive energy shock with oil up 83%, driving inflation and forcing central banks toward tighter policy. US tariff implementation added protectionist headwinds while AI fears hammered tech stocks and private equity. Commodities surged 40% with gold hitting records on safe-haven demand amid fragmented global monetary policy. |
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Central Banks, commodities, equities, fixed income, Global Markets, inflation, Trade Policy | - | Global markets rose 3.7% in Q4 2025 on AI infrastructure spending and Fed policy support. Trade tensions eased with US-China agreements reducing tariffs significantly. Commodities surged with copper up 22.6% and silver gaining 51%. Central banks diverged with Fed cutting while BOJ raised rates. Technology valuations and geopolitical risks remain key concerns. |
| Oct 24 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 1810.HK, AAPL, APPL, FICO, GALDF, GOOGL, HOOD, IOT, LLY, MELI, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOW, NTDOY, NVDA, ORCL, SHOP, SPOT, TSM, VRTX | AI, E-Commerce, gaming, global, growth, semiconductors, technology | - | The fund underperformed in Q3 despite strong Technology sector gains led by AI beneficiaries NVIDIA, AppLovin, and Shopify. New positions in Oracle, Alphabet, and Nintendo reflect continued focus on AI opportunities and quality growth companies. Health Care positions were trimmed due to clinical setbacks. The fund remains positioned for above-average growth despite ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainties. |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 1810.HK, APPL, FICO, GALDF, GOOGL, HOOD, IOT, LLY, MELI, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOW, NTDOY, NVDA, ORCL, SHOP.TO, SPOT, TSM, VRTX | AI, Cloud, E-Commerce, gaming, global, growth, semiconductors, technology | - | Fund underperformed in Q3 despite strong AI-driven technology performance from NVIDIA, AppLovin, and Taiwan Semiconductor. Added Oracle for AI cloud opportunities and Nintendo for Switch 2 growth. Eliminated weaker positions including Samsara and Fair Isaac. GenAI boom creating significant opportunities while market shows resilience despite policy uncertainties. Positioned for above-average growth. |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | AI, Central Banks, commodities, Global Markets, inflation, infrastructure, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Global markets declined 2.0% as US trade policy shifts drove capital rotation from US to Europe. Tariff escalation fueled stagflation fears with Fed cutting growth forecasts while hiking inflation estimates. Europe outperformed on fiscal stimulus with Germany's €1 trillion spending plan. Commodities rallied on safe-haven demand while China surged on AI optimism despite broader technology sector weakness. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | AI, commodities, energy, global, inflation, Markets, rates, Trade Policy | - | Global markets rose 3.3% in January despite Trump policy uncertainty and divergent central bank actions. US economy remained resilient with 2.8% GDP growth, while Fed paused rate cuts. Technology sector faced volatility from Chinese AI competition. Commodities gained on energy supply concerns and safe-haven demand, with European markets outperforming despite economic challenges. |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Central Banks, China, currencies, energy, geopolitics, inflation, rates, Stimulus | - | Global markets gained 5.0% in Q3 as central banks led by the Fed began aggressive easing cycles amid moderating inflation. China's massive stimulus package drove 22.4% gains and emerging market outperformance. Market leadership broadened beyond technology with utilities and real estate leading, while energy lagged on weak oil demand despite geopolitical tensions. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Central Banks, geopolitics, inflation, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy | - | Global markets rallied on temporary US-China trade truce and central bank easing, with technology leading gains. However, underlying challenges persist including inflation pressures, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal concerns. The 90-day tariff reduction provides negotiating window but structural uncertainties around trade policy, monetary coordination, and global stability continue to cloud the outlook. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices surged 83.3% in Q1 2026 due to escalating conflict in the Middle East that severely disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The effective loss of millions of barrels per day combined with attacks on energy infrastructure drove sharp rises in geopolitical risk premiums across crude and refined products. |
Crude Oil Energy Shock Geopolitical Risk Supply Disruption Middle East |
InflationGlobal inflation pressures intensified during Q1 2026 as energy shocks from Middle East conflict drove oil prices sharply higher. Central banks across major economies faced renewed inflation sensitivity and reduced scope for monetary easing, with the ECB significantly lifting its headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. |
Energy Inflation Central Banks Monetary Policy Price Pressures Economic Outlook | |
Trade PolicyThe US implemented a 10% global tariff for 150 days after the Supreme Court struck down previous tariff measures, creating a more protectionist global trade backdrop. This development further complicated the global trade outlook and contributed to economic uncertainty. |
Tariffs Protectionism Global Trade Economic Policy Supreme Court | |
AIGrowth stocks significantly underperformed as investors rotated away from technology amid anxiety about the disruptive influence of AI on the software and data services sectors. Fears spread to private equity firms and lenders with significant software industry exposure, with several funds experiencing redemption pressures. |
Technology Disruption Software Sector Growth Stocks Private Equity Market Rotation | |
GoldGold advanced 7.1% as geopolitical tensions intensified, including Middle East conflict and US-Europe frictions. Trade war concerns, questions around US policy credibility and Fed independence, and a weaker dollar supported safe-haven demand, pushing gold to record highs. |
Safe Haven Geopolitical Tensions Record Highs Dollar Weakness Policy Uncertainty | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIArtificial intelligence enthusiasm supported large-cap growth companies and drove technology earnings. AI-related investment has been a major contributor to recent growth but is expected to slow from exceptionally fast levels. Much of today's technology-led earnings growth is supported by long-term capital investment in AI, energy, and infrastructure. |
Technology Investment Growth Infrastructure Capital |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in December to 3.5%-3.75% and expects one more cut in 2026. Markets are pricing in roughly two additional cuts. Fed policy remains a key focus with policymakers cautious as inflation stays above 2% target and labor market shows softening signs. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Inflation Labor Market | |
DollarA weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% in 2025, provided a notable tailwind for foreign assets. The dollar decline helped boost international equity returns, with European equities gaining 35.4% and emerging markets rising 33.6% in dollar terms. |
Currency International Foreign Assets | |
EarningsStrong corporate earnings drove market gains, particularly in technology and communication services. Consensus expectations cluster around low-double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth. Current valuation levels suggest returns will depend more on earnings durability and cash-flow generation than multiple expansion. |
Corporate Technology Valuation Growth | |
VolatilityMarket volatility declined meaningfully since April's tariff episode, with VIX and MOVE indices moving back to levels associated with more stable markets. Lower volatility reflects less anxiety around trade policy and Fed policy, supporting investor confidence. However, low volatility markets can make finding attractive valuations tough. |
VIX Trade Policy Investor Confidence | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe fund continues to benefit from AI momentum with strong performance from NVIDIA driven by surging global demand for AI chips and major spending announcements from cloud and tech giants. Oracle was added as a new position to benefit from its accelerating cloud service business targeted at AI workloads, with a recently announced deal with OpenAI to build significant data center capacity. Alphabet is showing improved revenue growth and is expected to benefit from its latest AI model, Gemini 2.0. |
AI Cloud Data Centers Semiconductors Software |
E-commerceE-commerce remains a key theme with Shopify benefiting from increased merchant adoption of its payment and AI-powered solutions, ongoing global expansion, and sustained demand for e-commerce value-added services. The company is partnering with ChatGPT to enable e-commerce on this fast-growing platform. MercadoLibre shares declined due to growing concerns over margin pressure from stepped-up investment spending to fuel growth initiatives. |
E-commerce Payments Marketplaces Digital Commerce Growth | |
GamingGaming exposure includes AppLovin which posted robust advertising revenues and strength in gaming, while AI momentum and its e-commerce initiative look increasingly attractive. Nintendo was added as a new position with the successful launch of Switch 2 expected to lead to accelerating growth, while its unique hardware-software synergy should amplify its intellectual property value. |
Gaming Advertising Entertainment Hardware Software | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor exposure centers on Taiwan Semiconductor which delivered impressive profitability and raised full-year revenue growth guidance, as AI demand remains very strong and Taiwan Semiconductor is the primary manufacturer of leading semiconductors used in data centers. NVIDIA also posted strong gains fueled by surging global demand for its AI chips. |
Semiconductors Foundries AI Data Centers Manufacturing | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIThe fund continues to benefit from AI momentum with strong performance from NVIDIA driven by surging global demand for AI chips and major spending announcements from cloud and tech giants. Oracle was added as a new position to benefit from its accelerating cloud service business targeted at AI workloads, with a recently announced deal with OpenAI to build significant data center capacity. Alphabet is showing improved revenue growth and is anticipated to benefit from its latest AI model, Gemini 2.0. |
NVIDIA Oracle Cloud Data Centers Alphabet |
E-commerceE-commerce remains a key theme with Shopify benefiting from increased merchant adoption of its payment and AI-powered solutions, ongoing global expansion, and sustained demand for e-commerce value-added services. The company is partnering with ChatGPT to enable e-commerce on this fast-growing platform. MercadoLibre shares declined due to growing concerns over margin pressure from stepped-up investment spending to fuel growth initiatives. |
Shopify MercadoLibre Payments Growth | |
GamingGaming represents an attractive opportunity with AppLovin posting robust advertising revenues and strength in gaming, while AI momentum and its e-commerce initiative look increasingly attractive. Nintendo was added as a new position with the successful launch of Switch 2 expected to lead to accelerating growth, while its unique hardware-software synergy should amplify its intellectual property value. |
AppLovin Nintendo Advertising Growth | |
SemiconductorsThe semiconductor sector delivered strong performance with Taiwan Semiconductor delivering impressive profitability and raising full-year revenue growth guidance, as AI demand remains very strong, and Taiwan Semiconductor is the primary manufacturer of leading semiconductors used in data centers. |
Taiwan Semiconductor AI Data Centers | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyUS foreign policy shifts significantly altered global trade outlook with escalating tariffs and additional levies threatening inflation and economic growth. Trade tensions drove market volatility and increasingly clouded economic outlook across regions. |
Tariffs Trade War Protectionism Import Duties Trade Deficit |
AIUS announced multi-hundred-billion-dollar investment in AI project Stargate to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. China's DeepSeek AI model release boosted investor sentiment particularly for Chinese technology companies. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Technology Innovation Computing | |
Infrastructure SpendingGermany's landmark €1 trillion fiscal spending plan won approval for unprecedented spending on defense, infrastructure, and climate initiatives. Poland announced investment plans of over 650 billion zlotys including infrastructure investments. |
Fiscal Policy Government Spending Public Investment Economic Stimulus Capital Projects | |
InflationFed hiked annual core inflation estimate to 2.8% from 2.5% signaling greater stagflation risk. Escalating tariffs worsened inflation outlook while eurozone inflation declined to 2.2% in March strengthening case for rate cuts. |
Price Pressures Monetary Policy Cost Push Stagflation Central Banks | |
CommoditiesCommodities advanced 4.9% with precious metals rallying 18.2% as investors shifted to safe-haven assets amid trade tensions. Energy rose 4.8% on supply concerns while industrial metals gained 5.2% on stockpiling and robust demand. |
Raw Materials Gold Silver Copper Energy Safe Haven | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration's protectionist policies and territorial ambitions created complex economic and political landscape, strengthening US dollar and increasing economic uncertainty. Markets were unnerved by uncertainty surrounding scope of tariffs and their potential implications for economic growth and inflation. Economists fretted that manufacturing recovery could be undermined by higher tariffs threatening to lift raw materials prices and upend supply chains. |
Tariffs Protectionism Trade Inflation Supply Chain |
AIUS announced plans for multi-hundred-billion-dollar investment in AI project Stargate to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. However, release of two competitive large language models by Chinese start-up DeepSeek led investors to question long-term monetization structure of foundational LLMs developed by US technology companies. Taiwan's export orders rose 20.8% year over year in December amid high demand for AI technology. |
LLM Infrastructure Technology Competition Investment | |
RatesFed held interest rates unchanged after three consecutive cuts, with Powell indicating central bank was in no hurry to lower rates further amid solid expansion and healthy labor market. ECB delivered fourth consecutive 25 basis points rate cut, signaling another reduction in March. Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 bps to 0.5%, reflecting greater confidence that wages will continue to grow and keep inflation sustainably around 2% target. |
Federal Reserve ECB BOJ Monetary Policy Inflation | |
InflationUS core Personal Consumption Price Index rising 2.8% annually for third straight month, remaining modestly higher than Fed's target. Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5% in January, primarily driven by energy prices. Japan's core consumer prices accelerated 3% annually in December, up from 2.7% in November, largely driven by higher energy costs. |
PCE Core Energy Target Prices | |
OilEnergy sector increased 2.6% as heating oil, crude oil, gas oil, and gasoline continued to rise following US Treasury sanctions against Russia blocking two major oil producers, heightening concerns about tightening global supplies. Cold and extreme weather patterns across US and Europe bolstered oil demand, triggering fears of potential production disruptions. Biden administration's ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling along most US coastlines further supported oil prices. |
Crude Sanctions Supply Weather Production | |
CommoditiesCommodities rose 3.3% in January as all four sectors registered positive returns. Precious metals rallied 7.0% with silver and gold surging following Trump's tariff announcements, spurring move toward safe-haven assets. Agriculture & livestock delivered good results at 4.3%, with coffee soaring to record high due to low inventory and tight cattle supply supporting prices. |
Gold Silver Coffee Safe Haven Inventory | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RatesCentral banks globally began easing monetary policy with the Fed delivering a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September. The ECB, Bank of England, and several other central banks also reduced rates during the quarter as inflation moderated across developed markets. |
Central Banks Fed ECB Monetary Policy Easing |
ChinaChina unveiled its largest stimulus package since the pandemic, including sizeable interest rate cuts and reduced bank reserve requirements. New measures were introduced to support the property sector and capital markets, driving Chinese equities up 22.4% in the quarter. |
Stimulus Property PBOC Monetary Policy Capital Markets | |
InflationInflation continued to moderate across developed markets, with eurozone headline inflation dropping to 1.8% in September below the ECB's target. Lower energy prices helped ease inflationary pressures globally, supporting central bank easing cycles. |
Core Inflation Energy Prices Disinflation Price Pressures CPI | |
Energy TransitionEnergy sector underperformed with a 2.3% decline in the S&P 500, while utilities led gains at 19.4%. Lower oil prices persisted due to weak Chinese demand and potential OPEC+ production increases, while renewable energy infrastructure benefited from falling rates. |
Utilities Oil Prices OPEC Renewable Energy Energy Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Trade PolicyGlobal trade war entered new phase with US-China tariff reductions from 145% to 30% for 90 days while negotiating long-term agreements. US also agreed to trade framework with UK and delayed EU tariffs until July. Trade policy uncertainty continues to cloud economic outlook and impact business confidence across regions. |
Tariffs Negotiations Bilateral Framework Uncertainty |
InflationCore PCE inflation softened to 2.5% in April, but PMI data showed input prices rising at fastest pace since 2022. Eurozone inflation dropped below ECB's 2% target for first time since September. Central banks face complex trade-offs between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth amid trade tensions. |
PCE Input Costs Target Central Banks Trade-offs | |
RatesFed held rates steady for third consecutive meeting citing inflation and trade uncertainty concerns. ECB, BOE, and RBA cut rates by 25 basis points responding to softening inflation and economic slowdown signs. Most global sovereign yields rose significantly on tariff optimism and fiscal deficit concerns. |
Fed ECB BOE RBA Yields | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor sector led technology gains with 20.6% monthly return as mega-cap tech stocks rebounded from earlier sell-off. Taiwan announced increased US goods purchases following tariff threats. Sector benefited from improved US-China trade relations and reduced technology trade restrictions. |
Technology Mega-cap Taiwan Trade Relations Restrictions |
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