| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
AIP Convertible Private Debt Fund targets senior secured convertible loans to North American small cap public companies under $100 million market cap, providing investors with downside protection and equity upside participation. The strategy focuses on $1-20 million facility sizes with 50% loan-to-value ratios, secured by first-ranking liens on critical assets. Fund performance has been strong with 22.81% average annual returns since inception, with approximately 58% of returns from equity upside and 42% from debt income. Recent sample investments include successful exits from mining sector companies, generating returns of 18.9% to 44% through combination of interest income and equity appreciation. The manager expects increased opportunity in 2024 as high yield debt becomes expensive and equity markets remain challenging for small cap companies. Current market dislocation in small caps creates attractive entry valuations while maintaining multiple exit strategies including cash flow repayment, refinancing, asset liquidation, and M&A activity. The fund provides monthly distributions of approximately 6% while preserving capital through senior secured structures.
AIP targets senior secured convertible private debt to small cap public companies, providing downside protection through collateral while capturing equity upside through conversion features, benefiting from market dislocation and M&A activity in undervalued small cap stocks.
Optimistic outlook based on expectation of market rebound and increased convertible debt financing activity. Manager believes current environment presents opportune timing for fund allocations given robust deal pipeline and improved risk/return metrics.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CMMC.TO, HBM.TO, HMY | Canada, Convertible Debt, Mining, private credit, Senior Secured, small cap | - | AIP provides senior secured convertible debt financing to small cap public companies, combining downside protection through collateral with equity upside through conversion features. Strong track record of 22.81% annual returns since inception, with 58% from equity gains. Current market dislocation creates attractive opportunities in undervalued small caps with multiple exit strategies including M&A activity. |
| Mar 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CMMC.TO, HBM.TO, HMY, XIC.TO | Canada, Convertible, downside protection, Mining, private credit, small caps | - | AIP's convertible private debt strategy targets senior secured loans to small cap public companies, providing downside protection through collateral while capturing equity upside. The fund has generated 22.97% average annual returns since 2013, with 58% from equity participation. Current market dislocation in small caps creates attractive lending opportunities with robust deal pipeline and improved risk-return metrics. |
| Dec 31 2021 | 2021 Q4 | GCM.TO, RISE, SHOP.TO | Bitcoin, debasement, Fed policy, gold, inflation, Mining, monetary policy, real yields | - | EMA GARP Fund positions as monetary debasement insurance amid unprecedented fiscal/monetary excess. Down -21.37% in 2021 during gold miner correction, but manager expects significant outperformance when bull market resumes. Portfolio overweighted cheap gold producers with 20% Bitcoin allocation. Fed described as cornered with negative real yields creating ideal conditions for sound money assets. |
| Sep 30 2021 | 2021 Q3 | AAPL, COST, MSFT, PEP | Bitcoin, commodities, Fed policy, gold, inflation, Mining, monetary policy, Venture Capital | - | Gold miner specialist fund down 24% in Q3 correction after massive 2019-2020 gains. Manager sees pound-the-table opportunity with miners at 2x-4x EBITDA versus historical 6x-20x multiples. Fed trapped between tapering into inflation or preserving system. Portfolio combines cheap gold miners with Bitcoin infrastructure venture investments for monetary debasement protection and asymmetric upside. |
| Jun 30 2021 | 2021 Q2 | - | Bitcoin, Bubble, Fed policy, gold, inflation, Mining, monetary policy, real yields | - | Fund outperformed in Q2 despite gold correction as massive monetary stimulus drives inflation to 5% officially, over 10% in reality. Fed trapped and cannot tighten without market crash. Real yields deeply negative favor gold breakout above $2,080. Miners trade at 3x EBITDA with 20% FCF yields. Early stages of sound money bull market driven by currency debasement. |
| Mar 31 2021 | 2021 Q1 | - | Bitcoin, Debt crisis, gold, inflation, Mining, monetary policy, Sound Money | - | Fund manager sees sovereign debt crisis forcing massive money printing and inflation despite Fed denials. Current gold miner weakness creates second buying opportunity in world's cheapest asset class trading at 3.5x EBITDA. Bitcoin provides digital sound money protection. Expects explosive upside when inflation becomes obvious and gold breaks $2,000. |
| Dec 31 2020 | 2020 Q4 | GS, TSLA | Bitcoin, Fed policy, gold, inflation, Mining, Monetary Debasement, Sound Money | - | EMA delivered 126% returns in 2020 by positioning as monetary debasement insurance through diversified gold mining exposure. With Fed trapped by debt levels and unprecedented money printing creating crack-up boom conditions, manager sees gold miners as extremely undervalued at current cash flow multiples with potential for multi-year bull market just beginning. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 |
Private CreditAIP focuses on senior secured convertible private debt to public North American small cap companies, targeting $1-20mm facility sizes with 50% LTV ratios. The strategy provides downside protection through collateral while capturing equity upside through conversion features and warrants. |
Convertible Debt Senior Secured Small Cap Private Lending Asset Based |
MiningFund has significant exposure to mining sector through investments in lithium development companies and copper mining operations. Sample transactions include a lithium mining company in Australia and Copper Mountain Mining Corporation, demonstrating sector expertise and M&A opportunities. |
Lithium Copper Mining Operations Resource Development M&A | |
Small CapsStrategy specifically targets publicly listed companies with market capitalizations under $100 million, representing over 12,000 potential opportunities. Focus on small cap dislocation and depressed valuations creates alpha generation opportunities through M&A activity and market rebound potential. |
Market Dislocation Undervalued M&A Targets Liquidity Rebound | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Private CreditAIP focuses on senior secured convertible private debt to small cap public companies, targeting $1-20mm facilities with 50% LTV and 6-9% interest rates. The strategy provides downside protection through collateral while capturing equity upside through conversion features. |
Convertible Senior Secured Collateral LTV Downside Protection |
Small CapsFund targets publicly listed companies with market cap under $100 million, identifying over 12,000 such companies as potential borrowers. Strategy capitalizes on market dislocation in small cap stocks and depressed valuations from recent corrections. |
Market Cap Valuation Dislocation Public Companies Undervalued | |
MiningPortfolio includes exposure to lithium development companies and copper mining operations. Sample investments include Australian lithium projects and Copper Mountain Mining Corporation, demonstrating sector expertise in resource extraction. |
Lithium Copper Resources Mining Operations Commodities | |
| 2021 Q4 |
InflationCPI reached 7.0% year-over-year, the highest since June 1982. Producer prices surged 13.3% year-over-year in November, the highest since 1980. The manager believes inflation is understated and will go much higher, driven by massive money supply growth and fiscal deficits. |
CPI PPI Money Supply Fiscal Deficit Real Yields |
GoldGold is positioned as monetary debasement insurance with major upside potential. The manager expects gold to benefit from negative real yields, continued money printing, and eventual Fed policy reversals. Technical analysis suggests gold could reach $2,700 as a first target in the next wave up. |
Monetary Debasement Real Yields Safe Haven Elliott Wave Technical Analysis | |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks are positioned as the primary investment vehicle with extreme asymmetric upside. The portfolio is overweighted toward producers given their cheap valuations and cash flow generation. The manager expects miners to outperform significantly when the gold bull market resumes. |
Producers Valuations Cash Flow Alpha Bull Market | |
CryptoBitcoin is viewed as digital sound money and a monetary fire alarm alongside gold. The fund allocates approximately 20% to Bitcoin and Bitcoin infrastructure companies, seeing potentially more upside than gold. The manager compares the current Bitcoin ecosystem to the mid-1990s Internet era. |
Bitcoin Digital Money Infrastructure Sound Money Volatility | |
RatesThe Fed is described as cornered and behind the curve on inflation. Real yields are deeply negative at -5% or potentially -10%. The manager believes the Fed cannot meaningfully raise rates given massive government debt levels and will be forced to implement yield curve control. |
Fed Policy Real Yields Yield Curve Control Government Debt Monetary Policy | |
| 2021 Q3 |
GoldGold is positioned as a 5,000-year-old store of value and insurance against monetary debasement. The manager believes gold is silly cheap relative to money supply and various metrics, with negative real yields driving higher gold prices. Current correction viewed as typical bull market breathing. |
Monetary debasement Store of value Real yields Bull market Inflation hedge |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks are trading at historically cheap valuations of 2x-4x EBITDA with potential for multiple expansion to 6x-20x seen in previous bull markets. Three drivers expected: higher gold prices, production growth, and multiple expansion creating venture capital-like upside. |
EBITDA multiples Multiple expansion Production growth Venture capital Free cash flow | |
CryptoBitcoin viewed as digital store of value with more upside potential than gold but higher volatility. Portfolio includes venture capital investments in Bitcoin infrastructure companies with enormous growth potential, comparing opportunity to mid-1990s Internet era. |
Digital store of value Lightning Network Infrastructure Venture capital Asymmetric upside | |
InflationInflation is breaking out everywhere and is not transitory as Fed claims. Rising input costs, wage pressures, and supply chain issues creating persistent inflationary pressures. Stagflation scenario similar to 1970s expected with slow growth and rising prices. |
Transitory fallacy Stagflation Supply chain Input costs Persistent | |
RatesFed is cornered and cannot meaningfully taper without negative impact on stocks and economy. Real yields drive gold prices, and current negative real yield environment supports higher gold prices. Fed trapped by mathematical impossibility of unwinding stimulus. |
Fed trapped Real yields Taper Quantitative easing Monetary policy | |
Risk AppetiteEverything Bubble showing signs of faltering with extreme valuations in US stock market. Margin debt at concerning levels and corporate profit margins under pressure from rising costs. Either margins decline or more inflation persists as companies pass through costs. |
Everything Bubble Margin debt Profit margins Valuations Market excess | |
| 2021 Q2 |
InflationCPI inflation hit 5% year-over-year in May 2021, with home prices up 23.6% and wages breaking above 4% for the first time since 1983. The manager argues real inflation is over 10% when properly calculated, as the BLS understates shelter costs which comprise one-third of CPI. This inflation is driven by massive monetary stimulus and is unlikely to be transitory as the Fed claims. |
CPI Wages Housing Monetary Policy Fed |
GoldReal yields have plunged deeply negative, creating the third major period of falling real yields in modern history. Gold appears poised for a major breakout above $2,000 per ounce, with technical indicators showing oversold conditions and seasonal factors turning favorable. The manager expects gold to catch up to money supply growth, implying a target of $2,900 per ounce. |
Real Yields Breakout Money Supply Seasonality | |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks are trading at compelling valuations of 3x run-rate EBITDA with free cash flow yields above 20%. The sector shows high operating margins and low PE multiples compared to other industries. Historical gold stock bull markets have delivered 600%+ returns, and this cycle could exceed past performance given current financial extremes. |
Valuations Free Cash Flow Bull Market Margins | |
CryptoBitcoin represents both a store of value like digital gold and a payment network through Lightning Network technology. With 150 million global owners and growing institutional adoption, Bitcoin is beyond the point where governments could render it illegal. The fund maintains a 15% allocation split between coins and related companies, expecting continued robust global adoption. |
Bitcoin Lightning Network Adoption Digital Gold | |
RatesThe Fed is trapped and cannot raise interest rates or taper QE without crashing markets and triggering depression. Every 1% rate increase would add $300 billion to annual deficit costs. The December 2018 tightening attempt led to an 18% S&P 500 decline, forcing the Fed back to accommodation. Future crises will likely require Fed equity purchases and yield curve control. |
Fed Trap QE Yield Curve Control Market Dependency | |
Risk AppetiteMarkets exhibit extreme frothy conditions with margin debt at record levels as percentage of GDP, exceeding dotcom and housing bubble peaks. All bond sectors trade at record-tight spreads over Treasuries. The manager identifies this as a possible crack-up boom, the third major bubble in 20+ years, but this time at the sovereign debt/currency level affecting everything. |
Margin Debt Credit Spreads Bubble Leverage | |
| 2021 Q1 |
InflationManager believes inflation is a certainty and emerging clearly, driven by massive money supply growth and fiscal stimulus. Cites eye-popping price increases across commodities and housing, arguing Fed's transitory narrative is wrong and inflation expectations support their view. |
CPI Money Supply Stimulus Prices Transitory |
GoldDescribes current period as second chance to buy gold and gold mining securities at compelling values. Views gold miners as world's cheapest asset class with upside from higher gold prices, production growth, and multiple expansion. |
Bullion Miners Valuation Real Rates Safe Haven | |
Gold MinersEmphasizes gold miners are extraordinarily cheap at 3.5x EBITDA with free cash flow yields north of 20%. Expects explosive upside when gold breaks $2,000, driven by higher prices, production growth, and multiple expansion. |
EBITDA Free Cash Flow Valuation Production Multiples | |
CryptoViews Bitcoin as digital sound money and existential threat to fiat currencies. Holds 7.75% allocation with plans to increase to 14.8%. Sees exceptional long-term upside but acknowledges volatility and government attack risk. |
Bitcoin Sound Money Fiat Volatility Government | |
RatesExpects Fed will implement yield curve control to keep nominal rates low while generating inflation. Believes deeply negative real rates are necessary to reduce debt-to-GDP ratio, similar to post-WWII financial repression. |
Yield Curve Control Real Rates Financial Repression QE Debt | |
Credit StressDescribes sovereign debt bubble collapse not seen since 1930s, with US federal debt at 130% of GDP. Argues debt levels cannot be serviced at free market interest rates, creating systemic vulnerability. |
Sovereign Debt Debt-to-GDP Bubble Collapse Systemic | |
| 2020 Q4 |
GoldGold correction appears to be ending after peaking in August. Manager believes gold is cheap relative to money supply and expects new all-time highs in first half of 2021. Gold sentiment measures were nearly as negative as March 2020 bottom in late November. |
Gold Precious Metals Monetary Policy Inflation Currency |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks remain extremely cheap despite improved operating metrics and free cash flow. Many companies trading at 2-3x run rate cash flow. Fund uses diversified venture capital approach across producers, developers, and drill stories for maximum torque versus ETFs. |
Gold Miners Mining Equity Valuation Cash Flow | |
InflationManager sees crack-up boom characteristics emerging with unprecedented money supply growth. Fed trapped between inflating or facing deflationary collapse. Real interest rates deeply negative, which is positive for gold. Psychology key variable for monetary velocity. |
Inflation Monetary Policy Fed Real Rates Psychology | |
CryptoFund holds 2.5% Bitcoin position as form of sound money alongside gold. Views Bitcoin as stunning technological development with extreme upside optionality but acknowledges volatility challenges. Sees both Bitcoin and gold benefiting from currency debasement. |
Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Sound Money Technology Volatility |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CMMC.TO | Copper Mountain provided the Fund with greater sector diversification and the opportunity to earn an above average total return usually associated with higher risk loans. Undervalued small cap copper mining company with a very strong off-take partner with low credit risk in a stable jurisdiction. The Fund established a position in the US$250 million 8% Senior Secured Notes in June 2022 which at the time had a yield to maturity of 9.6% and was purchased at about 95 (discount to par). Holding period Return of 18.9% (about a 10-month holding period). Return attribution: 37% from interest income and 63% upside. |
| HBM.TO | On April 13, 2023 Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM:TSX) announced that it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Copper Mountain Mining Corporation (CMMC:TSX) in an all share US$439M transaction. The combination will create the third largest producer in Canada based on 2023 estimated copper production. |
| HMY | Last October, the Company announced the sale of its wholly-owned Eva Copper Project in Australia to Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE: HMY) for up to US$230 Million (US$170M cash on closing). |
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