Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -25.5% | -25.5% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -25.5% | -25.5% |
Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -25.5% in Q1 2026, experiencing its most severe drawdown since inception due to AI disruption fears affecting software and digital businesses. The selloff was narrative-driven rather than fundamental, with earnings expectations remaining stable or increasing for most holdings while share prices declined materially. The fund's concentrated portfolio of high-quality, asset-light companies was particularly impacted by the SaaSpocalypse, with the IGV software ETF declining 24%. Key detractors included Fair Isaac Corporation, Hemnet Group, and PAR Technology, all experiencing severe multiple compression despite strong underlying business performance. The Iran War prompted tactical positioning changes, reducing net exposure from 94% to under 60%. Management added to AppLovin at sub-$400 levels, viewing current valuations as compelling. The fund implemented a refined compounding/conviction position sizing framework to better manage narrative risk. Despite the drawdown, management believes the current opportunity set is the most compelling since inception, with holdings trading at multiples below estimated intrinsic value, offering highly asymmetric risk/reward profiles for patient capital.
The fund invests in mispriced quality businesses - high-quality companies with predictable earnings and high returns on capital that are trading below intrinsic value due to inflection, narrative, or duration mispricings.
The current opportunity set is described as the most compelling since fund inception, with high-quality businesses trading far below intrinsic worth. The fund expects multiple holdings to be worth multiples of current trading levels based on earnings estimates. Management remains confident in asymmetric risk/reward profiles despite recent drawdowns.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | APP, CSU.TO, DG, FICO, FND, GOOGL, GRDR, NOW, PAR, WDS.AX | Advertising, AI, E-Commerce, gaming, growth, software, technology, volatility | - | Bristlemoon Global Fund suffered a -25.5% drawdown in Q1 2026 from AI disruption fears hitting software holdings, despite stable fundamentals. The narrative-driven selloff created compelling valuations in quality businesses like AppLovin and FICO. Management refined position sizing to manage volatility while maintaining conviction in long-term earnings power of concentrated portfolio. |
| Jan 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADBE, APP, ASML, EYE, FICO, FND, GOOGL, HD, LOW, NKE, PRTG, SBUX, SNPS, UBER | AI, growth, Housing, Restaurants, semiconductors, software, technology, value |
ASML NA PAR ADBE BCG LN 215A JP FND |
Bristlemoon delivered 11.9% since inception despite Q4 weakness, benefiting from AI winners AppLovin and ASML while suffering from Hemnet and PAR declines. The manager initiated positions in Adobe, Floor & Decor, and others during market pessimism. PAR approaches potential McDonald's partnership while Floor & Decor awaits housing recovery. Portfolio positioned for opportunity-rich environment ahead. |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, ADI, AER, APP, ASML, BABA, CDNS, CRM, FICO, GOOGL, HEMN.ST, INTC, META, MSFT, NVDA, PAR, SNPS, TSM, UBER, V | AI, global, Long/Short, Quality, semiconductors, software, technology |
ASML NA GOOGL US SNPS US PAR UN |
Bristlemoon returned 5.0% in Q3 2025, adding positions in ASML, Alphabet, and Synopsys during market weakness while maintaining conviction in volatile holding PAR Technology. The fund targets high-quality businesses with competitive moats and mispriced earnings power, recently capitalizing on AI disruption fears and semiconductor equipment concerns to establish attractive entry points in monopolistic and oligopolistic market leaders. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AER, APG, APP, CRM, PAR, UBER, UNH | AI, Concentration, healthcare, tariffs, technology, value |
HEM APG CRM UNH |
Bristlemoon underperformed due to defensive tariff positioning and concentrated portfolio volatility, but management expresses highest conviction ever in current holdings. New positions in APi Group, Salesforce, and UnitedHealth offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. Fund continues gradual deployment into idiosyncratic opportunities with 12-18 month catalysts while avoiding momentum chasing at market highs. |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 0700.HK, APP, HEM.ST, IBKR, META, PAR, PDD, PINS, XPOF | Cash Management, China, Restaurants, risk management, software, tariffs, technology, volatility |
HEM.ST PAR |
Bristlemoon delivered -3.2% in March 2025, hurt by Xponential Fitness exit but helped by China holdings. Fund proactively raised cash to 22% and hedged before Trump tariffs, then upgraded portfolio quality by exiting rate-sensitive and ad-dependent names. Largest positions Hemnet and PAR Technology offer significant pricing power upside. Defensive positioning preserves optionality for emerging opportunities. |
| Jan 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | APP, META, MTCH, PAR, PDD, PINS, TCEHY | Advertising, gaming, Portfolio Management, Position Sizing, risk management, Social Media, technology | - | Bristlemoon delivered 10.4% in Q4 despite position sizing errors in top holdings. Pinterest remains largest detractor with revenue growth decelerating to 15-17% from 20%+. AppLovin drove performance with 148% gain as earnings forecasts increased 5.3x. Fund implements revised position sizing framework requiring exceptional risk/reward and conviction for large positions. Concentrated approach continues with 90.2% long exposure across 16 names. |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 0700.HK, 9988.HK, APP, EYE, META, PAR, PDD | Advertising, AI, China, Concentration, gaming, growth, Stimulus, technology | APP | Bristlemoon delivered 6.8% in Q3 through concentrated positions in Chinese internet stocks and AppLovin. Chinese stimulus drove significant gains in undervalued Tencent, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo holdings. AppLovin's AI-powered ad platform showed sustained 75% software growth. The fund maintains high conviction in quality businesses trading at attractive valuations with multi-year earnings compounding potential. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIThe fund experienced significant drawdowns due to AI disruption fears affecting software and digital businesses. The market bifurcated into perceived AI winners and losers, with the fund's holdings suffering from narrative-driven selloffs despite stable earnings. AppLovin is positioned as an AI winner through automated video ad generation and improved targeting algorithms. |
Disruption Software Algorithms Automation Targeting |
SaaSSoftware-as-a-service companies experienced brutal selloffs in Q1 2026, with the IGV software ETF declining 24%. The fund's asset-light, high-growth software holdings were particularly impacted by the SaaSpocalypse despite strong fundamentals and earnings growth prospects. |
Software Growth Multiples Earnings Volatility | |
GamingAppLovin's mobile gaming advertising business continues robust growth with 66% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025. The company benefits from increased game creation through AI tools like Google's Project Genie, which should expand in-game advertising inventory and strengthen AppLovin's distribution advantages. |
Mobile Advertising Distribution Monetization Publishers | |
E-commerceAppLovin is rolling out e-commerce advertising capabilities with promising early results. The self-service platform automates advertiser onboarding, potentially creating explosive growth in smaller merchants. E-commerce ads can monetize previously wasted gaming ad impressions at 100% effective take rates. |
Advertising Merchants Automation Monetization Platform | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager sees AI as creating both winners and losers, with Adobe positioned as an AI beneficiary despite market pessimism. PAR Technology leverages AI through Coach AI for restaurant management. The fund benefited from AI winners like AppLovin while avoiding perceived AI losers that proved resilient. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Generative AI Coach AI AI Tools |
SemiconductorsASML highlighted as a monopoly in the semiconductor industry during an AI boom. Manager took positions in Alphabet and ASML, with ASML stock rising from €600 to over €900 per share in a quarter as the market agreed with their investment thesis. |
ASML Semiconductor Equipment AI Boom Monopoly | |
RestaurantsPAR Technology positioned as the future operating system for global enterprise restaurants, potentially signing with McDonald's. The fragmented nature of legacy restaurant IT creates opportunities for unified platforms that enable AI deployment. |
PAR Technology Point of Sale Restaurant Technology McDonald's Unified Platform | |
Real EstateFloor & Decor positioned to benefit from housing market recovery. Manager expects existing home sales to recover from current depressed levels as mortgage rates normalize and the lock-in effect from low-rate mortgages gradually fades. |
Floor & Decor Housing Market Mortgage Rates Home Sales Flooring | |
SoftwareAdobe viewed as beneficiary of AI through workflow orchestration despite market fears of displacement. The manager believes AI will increase demand for editing and management tools rather than replace them, with Adobe capturing value in both creation and composition. |
Adobe Creative Software Workflow SaaS Digital Content | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe fund views AI as a transformative force across multiple holdings. Google has shipped market-leading AI products including Gemini models and AI Mode, while benefiting from cost advantages through its TPU hardware. The AI infrastructure boom drives demand for ASML's lithography equipment and creates opportunities for Synopsys in custom ASIC design tools. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning AI Infrastructure Custom ASICs AI Models |
SemiconductorsASML represents a monopoly position in critical lithography equipment for advanced chip manufacturing. The fund sees temporary weakness in orders as creating attractive entry points, while long-term demand remains strong driven by AI infrastructure needs and memory requirements. EUV and DUV tools remain essential for leading-edge production. |
Lithography EUV DUV Chip Manufacturing Wafer Fabrication | |
Enterprise SoftwarePAR Technology represents the fund's bet on restaurant technology transformation, despite recent volatility. The company offers unified POS and software solutions with potential for mega-deal wins including McDonald's. Synopsys provides mission-critical EDA tools for chip design in a stable oligopoly market structure. |
SaaS Point of Sale Restaurant Technology EDA Tools Software Platforms | |
QualityThe fund focuses on high-quality businesses with competitive advantages, seeking both obvious quality at reasonable prices and underappreciated quality companies. They look for businesses with predictable cash flows, high reinvestment returns, and mispriced earnings power, maintaining flexibility to pivot where opportunities exist. |
Business Quality Competitive Moats Predictable Cash Flows High Returns Mispriced Assets | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AISalesforce is positioned to capitalize on agentic AI through its data advantage and distribution via the app layer. Agentforce reached $100 million ARR with 5x quarter-over-quarter growth. The agentic AI market could reach $155 billion by 2030 according to Bank of America estimates. |
Agentforce Automation Data Cloud Enterprise |
Trade PolicyThe fund was defensively positioned against tariff risks but was too slow to redeploy when Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Markets quickly wrote off tail risk as the TACO trade emerged - Trump Always Chickens Out. |
Tariffs Trump Defensive Policy | |
Managed CareUnitedHealth faces challenges from elevated Medicare Advantage utilization and V28 risk adjustment model implementation. The stock offers asymmetric risk/reward after a 50% drawdown, with potential recovery to $290-$375 range. |
Medicare Utilization Value-based Healthcare | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Risk ManagementFund increased cash weighting to 22% during March due to heightened market uncertainty and Trump's tariff policies. Adopted maximum loss framework for position sizing and reduced concentration to manage downside risk during volatile periods. |
Cash Volatility Hedging Concentration Uncertainty |
ChinaPDD Holdings and Tencent Holdings were key contributors to performance as top five positions. Both China-based companies provided positive returns during the quarter despite broader market challenges. |
PDD Tencent Technology E-commerce Internet | |
TechnologyPortfolio includes significant technology exposure through companies like Meta, AppLovin, PAR Technology, and Interactive Brokers. Focus on mission-critical software platforms and digital advertising businesses with strong competitive moats. |
Software SaaS Digital Platforms Enterprise | |
RestaurantsPAR Technology represents major position as provider of mission-critical POS software to enterprise restaurant chains including Burger King, Arby's, and Wendy's. Company has enormous latent pricing power and resilient customer base. |
POS QSR Enterprise Software Foodservice | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Social MediaThe fund holds significant positions in social media platforms including Pinterest and Meta Platforms. Pinterest represents the fund's largest performance detractor since inception, with management acknowledging position sizing errors. The company is transitioning to lower-funnel ad products but has experienced revenue growth deceleration from 20%+ to 15-17% guidance. |
Pinterest Meta Advertising Revenue Growth |
GamingAppLovin Corporation was a key contributor to quarterly performance with 148% stock price increase. The company exemplifies uncertainty creating opportunity, with analyst earnings forecasts increasing 5.3x from $1.14 to $6 per share for FY25 in just two years, driving the stock up more than 5x since initial investment. |
AppLovin Earnings Forecasts Growth Mobile | |
AdvertisingDigital advertising is a core focus with positions in Pinterest and Meta Platforms. Pinterest's transition from brand-awareness to performance advertising has been slower than expected, with management unable to explain revenue growth deceleration despite product improvements and advertiser adoption initiatives. |
Digital Performance Revenue Growth Platforms | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIAppLovin's AXON 2.0 AI-powered ad targeting algorithm has driven exceptional growth, with software revenues growing 75% year-over-year. The neural network utilizes recent AI breakthroughs to improve ad targeting beyond previous capabilities. AXON 2.0's targeting improvements allow AppLovin to deliver superior return on ad spend outcomes at scale. |
Machine Learning Ad Tech Targeting Neural Networks Performance |
ChinaChinese internet companies Tencent, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo were purchased as exceptionally cheap, high-quality businesses. Chinese government stimulus measures in September 2024 provided significant multiple expansion. The fund has since trimmed China positions after the rally but maintains exposure to these quality franchises. |
Stimulus Internet Valuation Government Policy Multiple Expansion | |
GamingAppLovin operates in mobile gaming advertising and owns a portfolio of over 100 mobile games. The company's ad network connects advertisers with in-game ad slots, utilizing AI to show the right ad to the right person at the right time. Mobile gaming represents a core vertical for AppLovin's advertising technology platform. |
Mobile Gaming Ad Network Monetization User Acquisition In-App Advertising | |
AdvertisingAppLovin's advertising technology platform reaches 1.4 billion users daily through its AppDiscovery and MAX mediation products. The company benefits from network effects and switching costs in the mediation business. App install advertising is performance-driven with uncapped budgets, creating a favorable market dynamic. |
Ad Tech Mediation Performance Marketing Network Effects Real-Time Bidding |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | ASML NA | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | AI, CapEx, Euv, Monopoly, semiconductors | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | PAR | PAR Technology Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Catalysts, platform, POS, Restauranttech | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | ADBE | Adobe Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Retention, Software, valuation, Workflows | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | BCG LN | Baltic Classifieds Group PLC | Communication Services | Internet Services & Infrastructure | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Classifieds, Insiders, Monopoly, Networkeffects, rerating | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | 215A JP | Timee, Inc. | Industrials | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | growth, Japan, Labor, Marketplaces, Networkeffects | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | FND | Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Cyclicality, Housing, Operatingleverage, Procustomers, Specialtyretail | Login |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | ASML NA | ASML Holding NV | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | AI, Euv, growth, Lithography, Monopoly, semiconductors, technology, valuation | Login |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | GOOGL US | Alphabet Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cloud, Hardware, innovation, monetization, Search, technology | Login |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | SNPS US | Synopsys Inc | Information Technology | Electronic Design Automation | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Design, Eda, growth, Margins, semiconductors, Software, valuation | Login |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | PAR UN | PAR Technology Corp | Information Technology | Enterprise Software | Bull | NYSE | acquisition, ARR, growth, McDonald's, Restaurant, SaaS, Software, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | HEM | Hemnet Group AB | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | growth, Portals, Pricing, Property, Subscriptions | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | APG | APi Group Corporation | Industrials | Specialty Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | consolidation, Inspections, Margins, Recurring, services | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | CRM | Salesforce, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Automation, Data, SaaS, Software | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | healthcare, Insurance, Medicare, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | The Bristlemoon Global Fund | HEM.ST | Hemnet Group AB | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | Stockholm Stock Exchange | EBITDA margins, marketplace, Monopoly, Pricing power, Property Portal, Real Estate, SaaS, Sweden, Take rate, Vendor-Paid Model | Login |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | The Bristlemoon Global Fund | PAR | PAR Technology Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NYSE | ARR growth, cross-selling, Enterprise software, M&A strategy, Mission-Critical, platform, POS Software, Pricing power, QSR, Restaurant technology, SaaS | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | The Bristlemoon Global Fund | APP | AppLovin Corporation | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, AI, Data Moat, growth, high margins, machine learning, Mediation, Mobile Gaming, network effects, software platform | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) reported a solid Q4 2025 result with, in our view, a highly conservative earnings guidance for fiscal year 2026. Earnings expectations for the business have continued to creep up, yet the share price declined by almost -37% in the March quarter. FICO's FY27 earnings multiple derated from above 50x at the start of the year, to 25x at the end of March, a more than 50% decline in the multiple over the span of a quarter. FICO's multiple is now more than one standard deviation below its 10 year average, and the P/E ratio has declined to a level that has historically only been reached during periods of heightened pessimism. We believe that FICO, in a scenario where there's a modest recovery in mortgage origination volumes, can grow its earnings at north of 40% per annum over the next two years. If this unfolds, we expect FICO to be worth more than $2,400 per share, or 2.2x where the stock is trading today. |
| APP | AppLovin (APP), the largest position in the Fund, declined by almost -41% in the March quarter. Like many of the Fund's other holdings, expectations for future earnings for APP have steadily increased, yet the share price plummeted due to misplaced AI-disruption fears. The core mobile game ads business continues to grow very strongly. For example, in Q4 of 2025, with AppLovin's e-commerce revenues still in their infancy, the business still managed to grow revenues by 66% year-over-year. AppLovin has been rolling out its e-commerce initiative in various phases. The company is rolling out its self-service product to advertisers in 1H26. We were able to add to the Fund's AppLovin position at sub-$400, a level which we believe represents compelling value. At these levels the business is being valued at 25x forward GAAP EPS, despite sellside expecting earnings to more than double from 2025 to 2027. |
| PAR | PAR Technology Corporation (PAR) is another holding in the Fund that has experienced a severe drawdown, despite healthy underlying business performance. The stock fell from around $70 per share in mid-2025 to around $13 per share today, a more than -80% decline. On FY27 consensus adjusted EBITDA estimates of $66 million, the stock trades at a 13x multiple, and this is despite a long runway to continue winning new logos, with PAR in discussions with multiple mega tier 1 restaurant chains for deals that would provide strong visibility over robust annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth for years to come. During March of 2020, PAR had less than $30 million of ARR. Fast forward to today and PAR has $315 million of ARR. However, despite a more than 10x larger base of ARR, the stock currently trades at the same price it did in March 2020. |
| WDS.AX | Key performance contributors in the month of March included Woodside Energy, Grindr, and our Dollar General short. |
| GRDR | Key performance contributors in the month of March included Woodside Energy, Grindr, and our Dollar General short. |
| DG | Key performance contributors in the month of March included Woodside Energy, Grindr, and our Dollar General short. |
| FND | Notable performance detractors over the same period included Floor & Decor, Fair Isaac Corporation, and Hemnet Group. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||