| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Minotaur Capital's December 2025 quarterly focuses on AI's step-change in capability through two key developments: skills that expand AI functionality and loops that enable continuous iteration until task completion. The fund experienced this transformation firsthand, building AI assistants and automation systems over the holiday period. This progress threatens traditional software business models through build vs buy dynamics, competitive intensity, and per-seat pricing pressure. Software stocks have been hammered, with HubSpot down 55% and Atlassian halving from January levels. The fund reduced software exposure including cutting Atlassian despite previous bullish commentary, as unit economics and defensibility shift rapidly. However, they maintain conviction in the AI supercycle through positions in Nvidia and memory makers. The fund initiated a position in Hut 8 following their $7 billion, 15-year data center lease to Anthropic backed by Google, yielding approximately 15% unlevered. The managers emphasize staying right as facts evolve, building AI systems that encode their investment philosophy to maintain edge in rapidly changing markets.
AI has reached a step-change in capability through skills and loop-based automation, fundamentally altering software industry dynamics while creating infrastructure demand opportunities.
The pace of AI development continues to accelerate with potential for further step-changes in capability. The fund expects continued pressure on traditional software models while infrastructure demand remains strong. Value may shift toward platforms that can govern agentic workflows rather than those serving traditional user interfaces.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADBE, CRM, GOOGL, HUBS, HUT, MSFT, NVDA, TEAM | AI, Automation, Data centers, infrastructure, software, technology |
HUT TEAM |
AI has experienced a step-change in capability through two key shifts: skills that expand what AI can touch, and loops that move from chatting to… |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 7CD GR | Artificial Intelligence, gaming, Global Equities, IP Expansion, productivity |
CDR CDR |
The fund spotlighted CD Projekt as a case study in scaling high-return intellectual property while maintaining quality, exemplifying global value opportunities outside the U.S. Managers… |
| Jul 28 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, diversification, fundamentals, mispricing, variant perception | - | The letter frames the investment process around identifying global mispricings rather than adhering to style boxes or factor labels. Management emphasizes variant perception, diversified exposure,… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | IPX AU, RHM GR | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ALO FP | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 4519 JP, KITW LN | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 5253 JP, PRY IM | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2023 Q1 | IPX, MDB, RHM GR, TSLA, ZG | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
Data CentersEMCOR Group was initiated as a new position, viewed as a critical contractor enabling multi-year investment cycles across data centers, semiconductor fabrication, electrification, and broader infrastructure modernization. Its decentralized, cash-generative model, recurring service base, and exposure to structural growth drivers create a profile viewed as more durable than a typical cyclical contractor framework. |
Infrastructure Electrification Recurring Revenue Growth Drivers | |
Software |
||
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
GamingNintendo continues to demonstrate exceptional performance with Switch 2 becoming the fastest-selling console in history, selling 17.4 million units in just 7 months. The company has a historically rich first-party software pipeline and is building new recurring revenue streams through Nintendo Switch Online and its expanding cinematic universe. |
Nintendo Console Software Hardware Entertainment | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Mispricing |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | CDR | PD CD Projekt SA | Energy | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | NYSE | compounding, Ip, Margins, Reinvestment, Scalability, Unreal engine, Video games | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | CDR | PD CD Projekt SA | Energy | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | NYSE | compounding, Ip, Margins, Reinvestment, Scalability, Unreal engine, Video games | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | HUT | Hut 8 Corp. | Information Technology | Data Centers & Cloud Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cashflow, Contracts, datacenters, infrastructure | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | TEAM | Atlassian Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Agents, Apis, Defensibility, disruption, Monetisation, Orchestration, Pricingpower, Workflows | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ADBE | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| CRM | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| HUBS | HubSpot Inc., a cloud-based customer relationship management platform provider, dropped by -14%. The company delivered a beat-and-raise quarter, but elevated expectations following its September Analyst Day—where it disclosed 25% year-on-year growth in net new annualized recurring revenues for the first half of 2025—led investors to anticipate near-term revenue acceleration. This improvement is expected to materialize gradually rather than immediately. In our subsequent meeting with the company, their CEO expressed confidence in sustained core growth levers, including platform consolidation, multi-hub adoption, and strong upmarket momentum. |
| HUT | We also initiated a position in Hut 8 during the quarter. On December 17, Hut 8 announced a 15-year, 245 MW data centre lease to Anthropic at their River Bend campus in Louisiana, backstopped by Google (AA+ credit), with a total contract value of US$7 billion. We bought the stock that day. At mid-point build cost estimates and before capitalised interest, the project yields ~15% unlevered in year one, rising with 3% annual escalators over the lease term. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | Capital spending from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and more have led to Nvidia becoming the Rrst 5 trillion market cap company. |
| TEAM | We sold Atlassian, which produces collaboration software, as we reduced our overweight exposure to software because we feel that AI has widened the range of outcomes for predominantly seat-based revenue models. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
