| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Eagle Capital argues that the AI capex boom has attracted capital to the point where the S&P 500 is increasingly concentrated and exposed to this single theme, now representing over 30% of the index. While enormous believers in AI's transformative potential, they see many investments pricing optimistic cases without sufficient downside consideration. The manager draws parallels to historical capex booms where demand moderation and supply overbuilding led to collapsed profits, noting that current earnings growth of nearly 20% is inflated by mechanical accounting effects while free cash flow grows only in the low single digits. Industry structures are deteriorating across AI labs, hyperscalers, and semiconductors as competition intensifies and extraordinary profits attract capacity additions. Eagle has methodically recycled capital toward high-quality businesses trading at a 20% discount to the market, including consumer platforms like MercadoLibre with long growth runways, managed care companies poised for multi-year margin recovery, and resilient software franchises. The portfolio is estimated to trade at under 15x 2027 earnings with EPS growth exceeding 15%, positioning for attractive returns across multiple futures rather than betting on a single AI outcome.
Eagle Capital is building a portfolio for a range of possible futures rather than betting heavily on the AI capex boom, which they believe is pricing optimistic cases without sufficient downside consideration and now represents over 30% of the S&P 500. While enormous believers in AI's transformative potential, they see mounting risks in the semiconductor supply chain with parallels to historical capex booms, deteriorating industry structures across AI labs and hyperscalers, and mechanical accounting effects inflating near-term earnings. The manager has methodically recycled capital toward high-quality businesses trading at a 20% discount to the market with faster EPS growth, including consumer platforms like MercadoLibre, managed care companies poised for margin recovery, and resilient software franchises, while maintaining selective exposure to compute infrastructure through dominant players like TSMC, ASML, and Amazon.
Eagle expects their portfolio to generate attractive long-term returns without undue risk by building a broad range of bets rather than confidently predicting a specific future. Their base case is that AI demand will remain robust with near-term capacity shortages persisting, benefits diffusing through the economy, and heightened creative destruction creating winners and losers. However, they anticipate the next semiconductor downturn will bring pressures to even the best-positioned companies. The manager believes their competitive differentiation is widening as many peers have struggled or capitulated to momentum, creating an unusually fruitful environment for building a distinctive portfolio with higher expected returns and less risk than the broad market.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AJG, AMZN, ASML, COP, DHR, ELV, EQT, GOOGL, HUM, INTU, LSEG.L, MA, MELI, META, MSFT, SAP, SPGI, TSM, UNH, WDAY | AI, Cloud, E-Commerce, portfolio construction, Quality, risk management, semiconductors, valuation | - | Eagle Capital has recycled capital away from the AI capex boom, which now represents over 30% of the S&P 500 and is pricing optimistic cases without sufficient downside consideration. The manager sees deteriorating industry structures and mounting risks with parallels to historical capex busts. They've built a portfolio of high-quality businesses trading at a 20% discount to the market with faster growth, including MercadoLibre, managed care, and resilient software, positioned for multiple futures. |
| - | 2026 Q1 | DHR, EQT, HUM, INTU, LSEG.L, MELI, SAP, SPGI, UNH, WDAY | AI, Concentration, healthcare, market structure, Natural Gas, software, value | - | Eagle Capital sees market structure changes creating opportunities as passive flows and momentum trading make markets less efficient. The firm has positioned in quality companies across healthcare, software, and energy trading at discounts to expected earnings growth. Key holdings include managed care recovering from Medicare pressure, Latin American e-commerce leader Mercado Libre, and defensive software businesses navigating AI disruption. |
| Feb 13 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ASML, BAYRY, LSEGY, SAP, SHEL, TSM, TSMC | Agriculture, energy, international, semiconductors, software, technology, value |
ASML NA BAYN GR LSEG LN SAP GR SHEL LN TSM |
Eagle Capital delivered strong 2025 performance by increasing international exposure to undervalued multinational leaders like ASML, TSMC, SAP, Shell, and Bayer. With elevated U.S. valuations creating future return headwinds, the firm's flexibility to find global bargains provides competitive advantage. International investments outperformed while improving portfolio diversification and risk-adjusted returns. |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASTS, FTAI, MGNI, NBIS, NTDOY | aerospace, AI, Compounding, gaming, infrastructure, Satellites, small caps, technology |
LSEG LN LSEG LN |
Crossroads delivered 34.1% YTD returns through concentrated positions in gaming, AI infrastructure, satellite broadband, and aerospace. Nintendo's Switch 2 achieved record sales, AST SpaceMobile advanced toward commercialization, Nebius secured massive Microsoft AI contract, and FTAI transformed its aviation platform. Portfolio designed to exploit volatility through antifragile structure targeting mispriced emerging technology leaders. |
| Aug 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ASTS, ET, FTAI, GOOGL, META, MGNI, MRO, NBIS, NTDOY | gaming, Satellites, small cap, Space, tariffs, technology, value |
NTDOY ASTS |
Crossroads delivered 36.9% net returns in Q2 2025 despite small-cap value headwinds, driven by Nintendo's record Switch 2 launch and AST SpaceMobile's satellite broadband progress. The fund's concentrated approach to event-driven value investing in structural transformation stories continues generating superior risk-adjusted returns through disciplined analysis and patient capital allocation in overlooked opportunities. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AA, AER, AMZN, AON, BAYRY, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, DFS, EL, ELV, GE, GEV, GOOGL, HLT, HUM, INTU, LBRDK, LEN | AI, diversification, Geopolitical, long-term, Recession, tariffs, uncertainty, value | - | Eagle outperformed during Q1 2025's tariff-driven market crash, expecting moderate recession but maintaining long-term optimism. Portfolio positioned defensively with minimal direct tariff exposure. Tariffs may prove less inflationary than feared as consumer economizing creates deflationary pressures elsewhere. Share buyback opportunities and eventual policy support provide upside catalysts for well-positioned holdings. |
| Feb 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AER, AMZN, AON, CMCSA, COP, GOOGL, HUM, LNSTY, MSFT, SHEL, UNH, WDAY, WWD | earnings, energy, healthcare, long-term, technology, value |
AMZN COP UNH HUM |
Eagle Capital expects challenging market returns ahead due to elevated S&P 500 valuations offering only 4.4% earnings yield versus 4.6% treasuries. The firm maintains its value discipline focused on long-term earnings power, holding concentrated positions from high-yield energy names like ConocoPhillips to growth compounders like Amazon, while adding to distressed managed care plays like Humana. |
| Nov 19 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMZN, AON, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, DFS, ELV, GEV, GOOGL, GS, HLT, HUM, META, MSFT, NFLX, OXY, SAP, TSM, WWD | aerospace, Aftermarket, growth, Quality, value | WWD | Eagle Capital highlights Woodward as exemplifying their strategy of finding well-managed businesses with leading positions and promising growth. The aerospace supplier has tripled content share on new narrowbody aircraft, creating unique aftermarket growth as fleet transitions. Strong margins expansion under new CEO, trading at discount despite high-teens EPS growth potential over next decade. |
| Aug 12 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AA, AAPL, AER, AMZN, AON, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, DFS, ELV, GE, GEV, GOOGL, GS, HLT, HUM, LLY, META, MSFT, NVDA | Concentration, large cap, Passive, S&P 500, technology, valuation | - | Eagle Capital warns that S&P 500 concentration and valuation risks suggest below-average returns ahead despite the index's historical success. With 35% of capital in 10 companies and technology multiples extended, the firm is recycling capital from expensive holdings into discounted opportunities, maintaining conviction in select mega-cap technology names while avoiding overvalued Apple and Nvidia. |
| Apr 29 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, HUM, INTC, NVDA, QCOM, SAP, TSM, WWD | aerospace, duration, healthcare, long-term, semiconductors, technology, value |
HUM AMZN WWD SAP TSM |
Eagle Capital targets companies with temporary near-term issues that resolve to stronger long-term positions. Current focus includes Humana's Medicare margin recovery, Amazon's efficiency gains, and TSMC's AI/automotive exposure. Despite market valuation concerns, high dispersion creates opportunities in controversial names. The firm is actively recycling capital into higher-return positions. |
| Feb 21 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AMZN, AON, BAYRY, C, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, ELV, GE, GOOGL, GS, HLT, IAC, LBRDK, MAR, META, MSFT, NFLX, OXY | energy, fiscal policy, inflation, Long Term, technology, value | - | Eagle Capital maintains its concentrated, long-term value approach with 35-year track record of outperformance. The firm sees attractive opportunities in unloved energy stocks trading at wide free-cash-flow yields. Portfolio trades at discount despite superior expected growth. Key concern is unsustainable 6-7% fiscal deficit creating inflationary pressures and requiring tighter future policy environment. |
| Nov 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AMZN, COP, GOOGL, META, MSFT, OXY, SHEL, V | Capital Allocation, energy, Magnificent Seven, oil, technology, value |
COP SHEL DOXY |
Eagle's concentrated strategy delivered positive Q3 returns while markets declined, trimming Magnificent Seven technology positions after strong performance while building energy positions in ConocoPhillips, Shell, and Occidental Petroleum. The energy thesis capitalizes on supply-demand imbalances created by premature investment decline due to electric vehicle fears, quality management teams, and potential portfolio protection during supply shocks. |
| Aug 4 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMZN, AON, BAYRY, COF, COP, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, SHEL, UNH | AI, Cloud, Data, disruption, Distribution, energy, technology | - | Eagle Capital positions for AI disruption by favoring companies with distribution control and data advantages like Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, while building energy positions in ConocoPhillips and Shell as atoms businesses face minimal AI disruption. The firm expects rich opportunities as AI transforms industries but remains sober about the early stage and uncertain roadmap ahead. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIEagle views AI as an incredible technology with profound effects but believes many AI capex supply chain investments are pricing optimistic cases without sufficient downside consideration. The manager expects heightened creative destruction across white-collar workflows and competitive moats, creating winners and losers. They maintain exposure to AI capex investments but at reduced levels compared to before. |
AI Capex Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors |
Semiconductor CycleEagle sees mounting long-term risks in semiconductors despite strong near-term earnings. They draw parallels to the China commodities boom, warning of potential oversupply as industry consolidation weakens. NVIDIA faces share loss to custom silicon programs, while memory markets risk transitioning to four-player competition with Chinese capacity additions threatening industry profits. |
Semiconductors Memory NVIDIA TSMC Capex | |
CloudThe manager believes hyperscaler industry structure has deteriorated with increased competition from GCP, Oracle, SpaceX, and neoclouds, plus customer concentration risk from OpenAI and Anthropic. Despite this, they view the business model as reasonably strong due to go-to-market advantages, ecosystem benefits, and internal silicon programs. Amazon is particularly favored as it has sat out the AI bull market. |
Cloud Hyperscalers AWS Azure Data Centers | |
E-commerceEagle is heavily invested in MercadoLibre, viewing Latin America's mid-teens e-commerce penetration versus nearly 30% in the U.S. as offering a long runway for growth. The company is growing revenue more than 40% and trading lower margins today for a larger business tomorrow, similar to Amazon's early strategy. AI should benefit e-commerce platforms more than brick-and-mortar peers. |
E-commerce MercadoLibre Amazon LatAM Growth | |
Managed CareThe manager believes managed care has bottomed after several years of cost/price pressures in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid. They expect a multi-year improvement in margins and earnings as conditions transition. UnitedHealth's turnaround under returning CEO Stephen Hemsley is showing growing evidence of success, and Humana is making good strides with improved Star ratings expected. |
Managed Care Healthcare Medicare Medicaid Margins | |
Natural GasEagle owns EQT, the largest U.S. pure-play natural gas producer with low-cost, long-lived Marcellus assets. As LNG export capacity is added and U.S. electricity demand increases due to datacenter buildouts in coming years, they believe supply and demand are likely to tighten. Combined with moderate production growth and large free cash flow yield, it offers good EPS growth and attractive skew. |
Natural Gas LNG Energy Data Centers Supply | |
AluminumThe manager sees a structural shift in aluminum markets as China has imposed smelter caps and is no longer adding net capacity after more than two decades of relentless supply. As global demand grows, new capacity must be added elsewhere at higher build costs, requiring higher prices to earn a return. Eagle owns Alcoa at a wide discount to replacement cost with this price shift as a powerful tailwind. |
Aluminum Metals China Commodities Pricing | |
QualityApproximately a quarter of Eagle's portfolio is in superb businesses with high and stable margins, strong returns on capital, wide competitive advantages, and well-above GDP growth. These companies—including London Stock Exchange, Danaher, S&P Global, Mastercard, and A.J. Gallagher—have de-rated from more than 30x earnings to high teens despite significant business growth. As market EPS growth normalizes, these businesses should demonstrate significant outperformance. |
Quality Margins Moats Valuation Compounders | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI is creating disruption risks across software companies but also opportunities. The technology is widening the distribution of outcomes for businesses, with some facing impairment while others may benefit. AI is deflationary for engineering costs and will change workflows. Danaher may benefit from AI applications in biopharma research as a medium to long-term accelerator. |
Software Disruption Biopharma Engineering Workflows |
Managed CareUnitedHealth Group and Humana are positioned for a multi-year improvement in margins and returns after Medicare Advantage bottomed from cost/price squeeze. Both companies are implementing AI and reducing costs as incremental tailwinds. Expected annual EPS growth exceeding 20% at weighted position. |
Medicare Healthcare Margins Cost Reduction | |
E-commerceMercado Libre dominates Latin American e-commerce with complementary fintech business. Latin America has low e-commerce penetration at mid-teens versus nearly 30% in US, enabling longer runway for extraordinary growth. Company investing heavily to capture opportunity with revenue growth accelerating to 39%. |
Latin America Fintech Penetration Growth | |
Natural GasEQT is the largest pure play US natural gas producer with long-lived assets and low-cost structure in Marcellus shale. Natural gas trades at wide discount to global prices. Combination of US electricity demand inflection, LNG export growth, and Middle East disruption may narrow this discount over next 5-10 years. |
LNG Electricity Exports Marcellus | |
Capital MarketsLondon Stock Exchange Group and S&P Global operate critical financial market infrastructure with dominant market share or monopoly positions. Both have AI-disruption risk in parts of enterprise but analysis indicates risks are limited to small subset and likely offset by AI-driven upside in data segments. |
Infrastructure Data Monopoly Trading | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Defense SpendingManager maintains exposure to global armaments companies, noting the entire world is rapidly rearming off an extremely low base of defense spending. Despite Q4 underperformance, the position materially outperformed for the full year with top contributors including Rheinmetall, Palantir Technologies, and RTX. |
Defense Armaments Military Geopolitical Security |
GoldManager holds both physical gold bullion and a leveraged gold exposure called 'Gresham's Wrath' that combines 1.5x gold exposure with option income generation. Gold demand from global central banks is accelerating while US Treasuries are being reduced, with growing mistrust driving physical deliveries. |
Gold Precious Metals Monetary Central Banks Inflation | |
Capital MarketsManager maintains positions in exchanges like Nasdaq and Chicago Board of Options Exchange, viewing them as essential high-margin toll roads for the economy with immense operating leverage. These exposures materially outperformed for the year, benefiting from trading volume growth and proprietary products. |
Exchanges Trading Financial Infrastructure Technology Data | |
CommoditiesManager uses managed futures strategy across North American and European commodities including energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock. The strategy underperformed in 2025 due to counter-trend reversals post-Liberation Day, though precious metals like gold and silver were positive contributors. |
Futures Energy Agriculture Metals Volatility | |
EnergyManager holds West Texas real estate with associated oil, gas, and water rights, describing it as a capital-light compounding machine with perpetual royalty income. The position underperformed in Q4 and for the year, with Texas Pacific Land Corp being the key detractor. |
Oil Gas Royalties Real Estate Permian | |
CryptoManager completely exited Bitcoin position in mid-November despite long-term bullish views, using a risk management framework similar to commodity trading funds. The exit was well-timed as Bitcoin continued falling while US Large Cap equities they rotated into increased in value. |
Bitcoin Digital Assets Risk Management Volatility Alternative | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GamingNintendo's Switch 2 has achieved record-breaking sales of over 10 million units in its first four months, making it the fastest-growing gaming hardware in history. The company benefits from a dual-platform position with both Switch 2 and legacy Switch contributing to profits, with strong software attach rates driving business model transformation. |
Nintendo Switch Hardware Software Console |
Satellite BroadbandAST SpaceMobile is transitioning from R&D to commercialization of its space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to normal smartphones. The company aims to eliminate coverage gaps and bring affordable broadband to billions, positioning for initial service rollout in 2026. |
AST Satellites Cellular Broadband Connectivity | |
AINebius secured a $19+ billion multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft, providing significant earnings visibility. The company has contracted 1 GW of power capacity supporting almost $10 billion of annual revenue potential, positioning it as a credible AI infrastructure provider in the early innings of a long deployment cycle. |
AI Infrastructure Microsoft Power Compute | |
AerospaceFTAI Aviation operates as a vertically integrated industrial platform capturing attractive aftermarket aviation economics through its Module Factory and Strategic Capital Initiative. The company manufactures 'green time' at structurally lower costs than OEMs, creating immediate part availability in a supply-constrained market. |
Aviation Aftermarket Engines Modules Maintenance | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GamingNintendo delivered a blockbuster quarter with the Switch 2's record-breaking launch, selling over 3.5 million consoles in the first four days and 5.82 million units through June. The company is transforming from cyclical earnings to secular growth with its Apple-like iterative hardware model and software ecosystem. |
Nintendo Switch Console Hardware Software |
Satellite BroadbandAST SpaceMobile is pioneering space-based cellular broadband to eliminate coverage gaps and bring affordable broadband to billions. The company is rapidly advancing to commercial scale with 45-60 satellites expected by year-end 2026 and cash flow breakeven expected by Q1 2026. |
Satellites Broadband Connectivity Infrastructure Space | |
Trade PolicyThe quarter began with tariff uncertainties as rates reached 9.75% average effective rate in July with country-specific rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Markets learned to price in tariff uncertainty as the administration's negotiating patterns became clear, with the 'TACO Trade' meme reflecting market adaptation. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Negotiations Uncertainty | |
Small CapsSmall caps continued to lag with Russell 2000 Value generating only 5% returns for the quarter while the fund delivered 36.9% net returns. The manager emphasizes small company stocks offer an unusually fertile hunting ground for outsized risk-adjusted wealth creation despite ongoing headwinds. |
Small Cap Value Outperformance Russell Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe administration is serious about changing trade flows and will implement significant tariffs, though ultimate levies expected to come down from headline rates. Tariffs are a form of consumption tax shared by consumers and foreign exporters, with corporate profits expected to be somewhat lower. Manufacturing capacity additions to the U.S. will be limited to quick-cycle projects with good returns on capital. |
Tariffs Manufacturing Trade Consumption Exports |
InflationContrary to many expectations, tariffs may not lead to inflationary shock as consumers will be forced to economize without more money to spend. High inflation expected in a small part of the economy with stable-to-declining prices across much of the rest. Bond market inflation breakevens declined 0.2% following tariff announcement. |
Tariffs Deflation Consumer Breakevens Prices | |
OilOil price dropped $10 following tariff announcement, translating to almost $75 billion per year of savings for U.S. oil consumers. This represents roughly 25% of the $300 billion expected to be raised from tariffs. ConocoPhillips was one of the worst performers during the market crash with no direct tariff exposure. |
Energy Savings Consumer Volatility Prices | |
BuybacksCompanies with stable earnings returning capital may see higher EPS out five years if stock price declines allow advantageous repurchases. AerCap has reduced share count by 25% over past two years and may buy back more than 10% of shares this year. Several portfolio companies are similarly positioned for capital return benefits. |
Capital EPS Repurchases Returns Shares | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueEagle defines value as a philosophy anchored in math, seeking investments that can generate double-digit returns by reaching a 10% yield on capital employed. The firm analyzes long-term earnings power rather than current multiples, as demonstrated by their 10-year forward earnings yield analysis of S&P 500 companies. |
Long-term Earnings Yield Undervalued Math |
Managed CareThe managed care industry faces cyclical pressures, regulatory changes, and headline risk causing earnings pressure and multiple compression. Medicare Advantage has experienced dramatic downturn, with UnitedHealth as the largest player having a disappointing year while Humana suffered greatly as a pure play. |
Medicare Regulatory Cyclical Reimbursement Ratings | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AerospaceEagle views aerospace as one of the most attractive segments of the global economy, driven by strong demand growth and technical moats. The company highlights Woodward's unique position in aerospace aftermarket with tripled content share on new generation narrowbody aircraft. |
Aftermarket Commercial Aviation Defense Components |
| 2024 Q2 |
ConcentrationThe S&P 500 has approximately 35% of its capital in only 10 companies, nearly double the concentration the index has averaged over the past twenty years. Eight of the top ten companies are in technology, creating extreme sector concentration risk that makes the index riskier than historically. |
Index concentration Technology weighting Sector risk Market cap weighting Passive investing |
ValuationThe S&P 500 trades at elevated multiples with dramatic expansion from ~16x to ~22x over the past decade. High starting valuations create mean reversion pressures that suggest mid-single-digit returns for the next decade would not be surprising. |
Multiple expansion Forward P/E Mean reversion Starting valuations Expected returns | |
AINvidia's customers are investing in GPU capacity well ahead of uncertain end demand, with the stock pricing that this level of spend will continue and increase. The further the investment cycle goes without large proven use cases that enterprises and consumers will pay for, the more exposed Nvidia becomes to a drastic downturn. |
GPU capacity End demand uncertainty Investment cycle Use cases Enterprise adoption | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Managed CareHumana's Medicare Advantage business faces margin pressure from post-pandemic medical procedure catch-up, tighter CMS reimbursement, and industry mispricing. The company expects 2024-25 earnings weakness but believes industry conditions are near trough with multi-year recovery ahead. |
Medicare Healthcare Reimbursement Margins Recovery |
CloudSAP is transitioning its massive ERP customer base to cloud-available S/4HANA product. While the transition is long and uneven with initial revenue growth decline, the migration should drive higher monetization and above-trend revenue growth against modest cost structure growth. |
ERP Migration SaaS Enterprise Monetization | |
SemiconductorsTSMC faced worst revenue growth since 2008 due to declining smartphone and PC sales plus inventory adjustments. However, the company continues gaining market share and has large opportunities in AI and automotive silicon with less risk than fabless firms as a toll on the entire industry. |
Foundry AI Automotive Market Share Cyclical | |
E-commerceAmazon overestimated post-Covid e-commerce demand and increased capacity too much, leading to underutilization and inefficiency. Management is addressing these fixable execution issues with a multiyear view, driving significant earnings upgrades and future margin improvement. |
Capacity Efficiency Margins Recovery Execution | |
| 2023 Q4 |
EnergyAfter prolonged poor industry performance, structural supply/demand dynamics are attractive. Energy stocks trade at historically wide free-cash-flow-yield advantage to overall market. Geopolitical risks may cause energy price spikes, yet sector weighting is near all-time lows as percentage of overall market. |
Oil Natural Gas Energy Transition Geopolitical Free Cash Flow |
ValueEagle's portfolio trades at discount to overall market despite being comprised of companies expected to have superior EPS growth. The discount widens the further out they look, putting time on their side. Focus on attractive valuation and ability to organically compound earnings. |
Discount EPS Growth Compounding Valuation Long Term | |
InflationCurrent fiscal deficit level of 6-7% of GDP during full employment is inherently inflationary. While currently benefiting from disinflation due to supply-side improvements and tighter monetary policy, this may attenuate with time as fiscal stimulus continues. |
Fiscal Deficit GDP Monetary Policy Supply Side Stimulus | |
| 2023 Q3 |
OilEagle built positions in three energy stocks over 16 months based on attractive long-term supply-demand balance, quality assets well-positioned on the global cost curve, and strong capital allocation by management teams. The thesis centers on supply investment being subdued due to pressure from shareholders, regulators, and environmental groups, while decline rates require 9% annual new supply creation to meet demand growth. Electric vehicles represent a paradox - their threat to demand is actually depressing supply investment before the world is ready, creating opportunity. |
Supply Demand Decline Rates Electric Vehicles Capital Allocation |
Energy TransitionThe long-term bear case on oil demand growth from electric vehicles is critical to Eagle's bullish energy view. EVs will reduce gasoline and diesel demand over decades, but this clear headwind is depressing supply-side investment prematurely. Norway's EV penetration going from 0% to 84% over 12 years only reduced fuel consumption by 0.9% annually due to fleet turnover lag. The IEA projects EV penetration growing from 14% in 2022 to 35% in 2030, implying gradual oil demand decline. |
Electric Vehicles Gasoline Diesel Fleet Turnover IEA | |
Capital AllocationManagement quality is even more critical in capital-intensive industries like energy production. ConocoPhillips generates $24.6 billion in cash from operations annually and must allocate this between capex, buybacks, acquisitions, and dividends - decisions corresponding to the entire company value every 5-6 years. Eagle's three energy holdings returned almost 11% of their market caps to shareholders over the past year through buybacks and dividends. |
Cash Flow Buybacks Dividends Capex Management | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIEagle views AI as creating both opportunities and risks across three categories: automation, personalization, and generative AI. The firm believes distribution control and data moats provide defensive advantages, while atoms businesses face less disruption than bits businesses. |
Automation Generative Distribution Data Disruption |
CloudHyper-scale cloud platforms like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform are well-positioned as AI accelerates demand for scaled infrastructure. Cloud is better suited for episodic AI workload demands than on-premise data centers. |
Infrastructure Hyperscale Workloads Computing | |
Data CentersAI computing is enormously energy-intensive, providing a modest tailwind to energy demand. Cloud infrastructure will handle the vast majority of AI workloads versus on-premise data centers. |
Energy Computing Infrastructure | |
Energy TransitionEagle built core positions in ConocoPhillips and Shell, viewing energy production as a fundamental atoms business unlikely to be revolutionized by AI. Energy stands out as comparatively undisturbed by AI disruption. |
Oil Production Atoms Undisturbed |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | ASML NA | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | AI, Euv, Lithography, Monopoly, semiconductors | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | BAYN GR | Bayer AG | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | Xetra | agriculture, Free Cash Flow, litigation, Seeds, turnaround | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | LSEG LN | London Stock Exchange Group plc | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Clearing, Data, Exchanges, Subscriptions | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | SAP GR | SAP SE | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | Xetra | AI, cloud, ERP, Subscriptions, switching costs | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | SHEL LN | Shell plc | Energy | Integrated Oil & Gas | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, cashflow, dividends, energy, LNG | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, Foundry, Pricing, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | LSEG LN | London Stock Exchange Group plc | Financials | Financial Data & Exchanges | Bull | NYSE | AI, buybacks, Clearing, Exchanges, financial data, growth, indices, Margins, recurring revenue, valuation | Login |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | LSEG LN | London Stock Exchange Group plc | Financials | Financial Data & Exchanges | Bull | NYSE | AI, buybacks, Clearing, Exchanges, financial data, growth, indices, Margins, recurring revenue, valuation | Login |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | Console, Digital, Ecosystem, entertainment, franchise, Gaming, Hardware, Ip, Japan, Software | Login |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | broadband, Connectivity, infrastructure, LEO, Mobile, Satellite, SPAC, Space, technology, telecommunications | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | WWD | Woodward, Inc. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, aftermarket, Commercial Aviation, Engine Controls, growth, margin expansion, Narrowbody aircraft, Sole Source, Technical Moats, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Cloud computing, e-commerce, growth, High Growth, Long-Term Compounding, Reinvestment, technology | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | capital allocation, Cyclical, energy, High Free Cash Flow, Modest Growth, Oil & Gas, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Inc | Health Care | Health Care Providers & Services | Bull | NYSE | Diversified Business, healthcare, Long-term holding, managed care, market leadership, Medicare Advantage, Regulatory risk | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | HUM | Humana Inc | Health Care | Health Care Providers & Services | Bull | NYSE | contrarian, earnings decline, healthcare, Medicare Advantage, Pure-Play, regulatory challenges, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | HUM | Humana Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | NYSE | contrarian, Cyclical Recovery, defensive, healthcare, managed care, market leader, Medicare Advantage, Regulatory | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | AWS, Capacity utilization, Cloud computing, e-commerce, margin expansion, operational efficiency, technology, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | WWD | Woodward Inc. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, Commercial Aircraft, Cyclical Recovery, Industrial Controls, manufacturing, market share, Operational Turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | SAP | SAP SE | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NYSE | cloud transition, Enterprise software, ERP, Germany, margin expansion, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, automotive, Cyclical, Foundry, market leader, Process Technology, semiconductors, Taiwan | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Alaska, capital allocation, cash flow, E&P, energy, Long-cycle Projects, Oil & Gas, Shale, shareholder returns | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | SHEL | Shell plc | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | LSE | Asset Optimization, capital returns, Deepwater, energy, global leader, high-margin, LNG, natural gas, Oil & Gas | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | DOXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Berkshire Hathaway, capital allocation, energy, Free Cash Flow, low-cost assets, Oil & Gas, preferred securities, Share Buybacks, turnaround | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| LSEG.L | London Stock Exchange owns a mix of financial market infrastructure, including the London Clearing House, Russell Indexes, Tradeweb, and Refinitiv data and analytics. |
| DHR | Danaher is a leading life sciences company, selling a broad mix of consumables and tooling for biological R&D and drug production. |
| SPGI | S&P Global owns the S&P ratings franchise, S&P Indexes, Platts, and Capital IQ. |
| MA | Mastercard operates as part of a global duopoly of payment rails and standards. |
| AJG | A.J. Gallagher is a commercial insurance broker that continues to gain share in a consolidating industry. |
| TSM | TSMC is the world's fab, where most leading-edge logic chips, ranging from Apple to NVIDIA, are made. TSMC is one of the best businesses in the semiconductor industry and is well positioned over the next 5-10 years to participate in the sector's secular growth while maintaining their competitive positions. That said, they will face pressures when the next downturn comes. TSMC management's understandable reluctance to overinvest in capacity has caused shortages that created opportunities for Intel and Samsung. While we think TSMC's technology leadership position and comparatively mild pricing will mitigate the pressures, it is likely to see tougher competition than we would have expected a couple of years ago. |
| AMZN | We particularly like Amazon, which has the broadest business, well-developed internal silicon programs, a history of operating as a low-cost producer, and a stock that has largely sat out the AI bull market. Amazon's retail business is comparatively more mature, but continues to grow at well-above GDP rates with attractive margins. We believe AI is demonstrably helping Amazon, which should benefit more than brick-and-mortar peers, which are unlikely to capture the same benefits from advertising, improvements in consumer search, or gains in warehouse robotic technology. We ascribe 60% of the value of Amazon to AWS and 40% to retail. |
| MSFT | Microsoft has formidable scale and distribution advantages. It should be well-positioned to deploy AI capabilities across productivity software throughout the economy. However, it is also vulnerable to changing white-collar workflows, and its execution has been mixed, with products like Copilot lagging Claude's plug-ins. That said, Microsoft has a rich history of being out-innovated by new products and then playing fast follower as it bundles each capability into its platform. We ascribe 50% of the value of Microsoft to their cloud business and 50% to the remainder of the company. |
| GOOGL | Google Search and YouTube are comparatively more mature, but continue to grow at well-above GDP rates with attractive margins. We believe AI is demonstrably helping Google Search, which has accelerated as ad targeting and content capabilities have improved. Google TPUs and Amazon's Trainium chips are the most competitive custom silicon programs. At times, Alphabet has been ahead in AI models. Today it's not, but with each new release, the pole position shifts. We ascribe 35% of the value of Alphabet to their cloud business and 65% to the remainder of the company. |
| ASML | ASML has a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV), which is required for leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing. ASML is one of the best businesses in the semiconductor industry and is well positioned over the next 5-10 years to participate in the sector's secular growth while maintaining their competitive positions. That said, they will face pressures when the next downturn comes. |
| MELI | Almost half of our capital in consumer platforms is in MercadoLibre, the leading Latin American e-commerce and fintech company. Latin America's relatively low e-commerce penetration—we estimate it at the mid-teens compared with nearly 30% in the U.S.—offers a long runway for growth. In recent quarters, revenue grew more than 40%. We think the market is too focused on near-term earnings revisions and may be conflating elective investments with structural weakness. Much like Amazon in its early days, MercadoLibre is trading lower margins today for a larger business tomorrow; we're thrilled with this approach, which both builds value and has enabled Eagle to establish an attractively priced position. MercadoLibre should benefit more than brick-and-mortar peers, which are unlikely to capture the same benefits from advertising, improvements in consumer search, or gains in warehouse robotic technology. |
| META | Meta is comparatively more mature, but continues to grow at well-above GDP rates with attractive margins. We believe AI is demonstrably helping Meta's advertising business, which has accelerated as ad targeting and content capabilities have improved. Meta was well behind in AI models and has recently made significant strides, offering increasingly competitive models at a far lower price point. |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group has significant scale advantages in a consolidated industry that outgrows the overall economy. The industry moves with its own cycle and, over the last several years, has faced cost/price pressures in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid. Even the largest firms are earning poor margins. We believe conditions have bottomed out and that we are transitioning to a multi-year improvement in margins and earnings. Since returning as CEO at UnitedHealth last year, Stephen Hemsley and the management team have been correcting some of the company's missteps. Recent results provide growing evidence that the turnaround is well on track. |
| HUM | Humana has significant scale advantages in a consolidated industry that outgrows the overall economy. The industry moves with its own cycle and, over the last several years, has faced cost/price pressures in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid. Some weaker firms are unprofitable. We believe conditions have bottomed out and that we are transitioning to a multi-year improvement in margins and earnings. Humana is making good strides, and we expect significantly improved Star ratings for the company later this year. |
| ELV | Elevance has significant scale advantages in a consolidated industry that outgrows the overall economy. The industry moves with its own cycle and, over the last several years, has faced cost/price pressures in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid. We believe conditions have bottomed out and that we are transitioning to a multi-year improvement in margins and earnings. |
| WDAY | Workday, a leading HCM and financials platform, earns mid-teen margins on a business that should have long-term margins of 30% or higher. The founder's return to the CEO role is reigniting product innovation, and we increasingly believe AI will be a net positive for their business, enabling them to play offense. Examples include geographic expansion, adjacent-product extensions, and natural-language querying for business results. |
| SAP | SAP is the world's largest provider of ERP software. It is mission-critical and sticky. It will face tougher competition in peripheral products, but its core should grow rapidly over the next five years as it migrates customers to its modern platform. |
| INTU | Intuit's QuickBooks, the dominant bookkeeping software for small and midsize businesses in the U.S., exists in a market that is difficult to serve profitably, given the low average selling price. Intuit's brand, scale, and network effect through the accountant channel give it formidable competitive advantages. It is well-placed to deliver AI solutions to this hard-to-reach customer. TurboTax, a relatively smaller part of the business, will likely adapt its business model to an AI world, but we have more modest expectations for its growth. |
| COP | ConocoPhillips, the largest U.S. pure-play upstream oil producer, has low-cost, long-lived inventory that we believe is underappreciated relative to peers. In the coming years, its free cash flow should inflect higher as the Willow project in Alaska comes online and transitions from a cash drag to a cash generator. We see the oil market as reasonably balanced, but risks may skew to the upside over the next couple of years as the world manages shortages from the Strait of Hormuz, and the path to its full and enduring reopening remains murky. |
| EQT | EQT is the largest U.S. pure-play natural gas producer. Like ConocoPhillips, it has low-cost, long-lived assets and management with an excellent track record allocating capital. Its position in the Marcellus shale and internally owned pipeline assets give it a distinctive position compared to most peers. It earns good margins even when prices are low. In the coming years, as LNG export capacity is added and U.S. electricity demand increases due to datacenter buildouts, we think supply and demand are likely to tighten. Combined with moderate production growth and a large free cash flow yield, it offers good EPS growth and attractive skew. |
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