| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 5.6% | 24.9% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 25.0% |
Halvio Capital returned 5.62% in Q4 and 25% for the first nine months since inception in April 2024. The manager sold Leon's, Mayne Pharma, and EDU Holdings during the quarter, with mixed results from Australian investments including a failed merger arbitrage in Mayne Pharma and a successful exit from EDU Holdings after management's aborted buyout attempt. The Japan basket remains a core holding, benefiting from corporate governance reforms under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is pushing companies to better utilize their ¥83 trillion in excess cash. Top holdings include undervalued situations like TOC Co. with real estate worth ¥184B against a ¥75B market cap, and FILA trading at attractive multiples despite tariff headwinds. The manager is increasingly looking outside North America for opportunities, expecting to reduce the current 40-50% North American allocation over the next year or two in favor of cheaper international markets. A large cash position from recent sales will be deployed in overseas stocks and OTC companies.
Focus on undervalued small-cap securities in international markets, particularly Japan where corporate governance reforms are driving improved capital allocation, while avoiding overvalued North American markets.
Manager expects to continue shifting capital away from North American markets toward international opportunities with better valuations. Currently looking at overseas stocks and OTC companies to deploy large cash position, with North American allocation expected to decline from current 40-50% over next year or two.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BKM.SI, CPH.TO, EDU.AX, FILA.MI, LNF.TO, MCCK, MYX.AX, NLOP | international, Japan, Merger Arbitrage, real estate, small caps, value | - | Manager focuses on undervalued securities across multiple markets, highlighting companies trading below intrinsic value such as TOC Co. with real estate worth ¥184B against ¥75B market cap, and FILA trading at attractive enterprise value multiples. The approach emphasizes finding bargains in less picked-over international markets. Japan basket represents a significant holding with focus on corporate governance reforms under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Manager sees opportunity in companies with excess cash being forced to improve capital allocation, with ¥83 trillion in corporate cash providing catalyst for shareholder returns. Portfolio concentrated in smaller companies across multiple geographies including Australian micro-caps, Canadian small caps, and niche industrial businesses. Manager seeks opportunities in less efficient markets where smaller companies may be mispriced or overlooked by institutional investors. |
| Oct 6 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CPH CN, FILA IM, MCCK, NLOP | Buybacks, Japan, Pharmaceuticals, REITs, small caps |
CPH CN NLOP US MCCK US 9478 JP 8841 JP |
The letter emphasizes disciplined value investing in overlooked small-cap and micro-cap equities, particularly where liquidity constraints deter larger funds. It highlights opportunities driven by balance sheet strength, asset backing, shareholder returns, and corporate actions such as buybacks, dividends, spin-offs, and wind-downs. Value is framed as resilient even in frothy markets, as downside protection and cash flow ultimately anchor long-term returns. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 6249 JP, 7952 JP, 8291 JP, CPH CN, FILA IM, NLOP | asset value, Buybacks, Corporate Reform, Japan Equities, volatility |
8291 JP 7952 JP 6249 JP CPH CN NLOP |
The letter emphasizes volatility as a source of opportunity rather than risk, particularly in underfollowed international and Japanese equities. Management highlights deeply discounted, asset-rich companies benefiting from corporate reform, buybacks, and activist pressure. Patient capital and valuation discipline are central as excess cash and real assets provide downside protection. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
JapanJapan offers tremendous value opportunities with one-third of companies trading below book value. Corporate governance reforms, record shareholder returns, and structural changes like unwinding cross-holdings are unlocking value. The investment opportunity is in early innings and could last several years. |
Corporate Governance Value Reforms Shareholder Returns Cross Holdings |
Small CapsSmall caps getting strong start in 2026 supported by easing monetary conditions and constructive fiscal backdrop. Small caps more sensitive to economic cyclicality which is overdue for expansion. Expected to grow at better pace than large caps in 2026 after long period of underperformance. |
Value Growth Cyclical Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q3 |
JapanJapan offers tremendous value opportunities with one-third of companies trading below book value. Corporate governance reforms, record shareholder returns, and structural changes like unwinding cross-holdings are unlocking value. The investment opportunity is in early innings and could last several years. |
Corporate Governance Value Reforms Shareholder Returns Cross Holdings |
Small CapsSmall caps getting strong start in 2026 supported by easing monetary conditions and constructive fiscal backdrop. Small caps more sensitive to economic cyclicality which is overdue for expansion. Expected to grow at better pace than large caps in 2026 after long period of underperformance. |
Value Growth Cyclical Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy | |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic | |
| 2025 Q2 |
VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, leverage, Liquidation, NAV, realestate | Login |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | CPH CN | Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | TSX | buybacks, cash flow, deleveraging, growth, NASDAQ, pharma, valuation | Login |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | NLOP US | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REIT | Bull | NYSE | cap rate, cash flow, dividends, Liquidation, Real Estate, REIT, valuation | Login |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | MCCK US | Mestek, Inc. | Industrials | Building Products & Equipment | Bull | - | acquisition, cash, HVAC, Industrials, manufacturing, Upside, valuation | Login |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | 9478 JP | SE Holdings and Incubations Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Publishing | Bull | NYSE | Alignment, balance sheet, buybacks, deep value, growth, Japan, Publishing | Login |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | 8841 JP | TOC Co., Ltd. | Real Estate | Commercial Real Estate | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, Catalyst, Inheritance, Japan, NAV, Real Estate, valuation | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | 8291 JP | Nissan Tokyo Sales Holdings Co., Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Activism, Book, cash, Dealerships, realestate | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | 7952 JP | Kawai Musical Instruments Manufacturing Co., Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Book, Demand, Margins, Pianos, valuation | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | 6249 JP | Gamecard-Joyco Holdings, Inc. | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, cash, Governance, Ncav, ROIC | Login |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Anthony | CPH CN | Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | acquisition, cashflow, dermatology, Licensing, Margins | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CPH.TO | The business continues to generate cash flow (US$21m of free cash flow in the first 9 months this year) and uses it to pay down debt. It should be in a net cash position by their December 31 reporting period with most likely all of their debt paid off around that time. They will then have access of up to $90m in financing to be put to use if they wish. |
| EDU.AX | EDU Holdings Limited delivered a material update in December 2025, upgrading its FY25 financial guidance after stronger than expected results. Management now expects revenue to grow ~92%, EBITDA to expand ~215%, and net profit after tax to increase ~452% versus FY24, underpinned by robust student enrolments and cost timing benefits. The company also announced a selective buy-back of 18 million shares at $0.55 per share, funded from cash reserves and expected to be earnings-per-share accretive. These developments reinforce EDU's operating momentum and capital discipline heading into 2026. |
| FILA.MI | There was an article put out by Bloomberg in November that FILA is going over its options in regards to its DOMS stake, listing a bunch of different potential transactions. The CEO confirmed in their Q3 conference call that they are in fact studying different levers to pull in regards to their DOMS investment. The core FILA business proved so far this year how stable and consistent its operations are. To only have revenues down 7% and EBITDA down 10% for the first 9 months when dealing with erratic tariffs throughout the year from the U.S. targeting Mexico, Canada and India that destabilizes your entire supply chain and a strong dollar devaluation when 50% of your business is in the U.S. speaks to the durability of the business. |
| LNF.TO | Leon's hosted their first ever quarterly conference call and the business is doing just fine: sales, earnings and EPS were all up. The problem though is we are now almost 3 years removed from when they announced their intention to create a REIT for their vastly undervalued real estate portfolio and there has been no mention of when this will actually take place. |
| MCCK | It remains egregiously cheap and is a typical Buffett Partnership type of investment. |
| MYX.AX | Mayne Pharma was to be acquired by a US company Cosette Pharmaceuticals. However, the bidder got cold feet and tried to get out of closing the transaction by claiming a material adverse change. The company being acquired, Mayne Pharma, sued to close and won in court. After they won, I decided to make the brilliant decision of purchasing the shares and collect the remaining 20% spread. The bidder then announced that they would shut down a manufacturing plant in Australia they were acquiring in the deal. One week after I made the investment, word got out that FIRB would not approve the deal and the stock went down 30%. |
| NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties, our largest portfolio position, advanced their liquidation plan and yet the stock had minimal price appreciation in 2025. NLOP and AIV continued to sell properties and move toward full liquidation. NLOP has now declared $12.30 of dividends per share in 2025 and should be able to return another $10/share in early 2026 once pending sales close. We expect dividends in FY26 to fully cover our cost basis on both names. NLOP and AIV expect to return substantial capital to shareholders as property sales finalize. We anticipate receiving dividends equal to or exceeding our entire cost basis in both positions during H1 2026. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
