| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.9% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
2Point2 Capital's Long Term Value Fund returned 12.7% in Q1 FY27, matching the BSE 500's 12.1% return, with 93.4% equity exposure across 15-18 concentrated positions. Since inception in July 2016, the fund has generated an 18.9% CAGR versus 13.7% for the BSE 500, delivering cumulative returns of 461% versus 258%. The letter focuses extensively on the challenges of learning from investment outcomes, arguing that weak feedback loops in investing make retrospective analysis unreliable. The managers use two detailed case studies—Tata Elxsi and MCX—to illustrate how cognitive biases distort post-hoc evaluation. Tata Elxsi was sold at 3x returns in 18 months but subsequently rose 5x more before collapsing 65% from peak, while MCX delivered 10x returns despite the original thesis proving incorrect, with success driven by an unforeseen shift to options trading and geopolitical commodity volatility. The managers advocate for separating process from outcome, maintaining written investment theses, and resisting the urge to extract lessons from individual results contaminated by luck and market noise.
2Point2 Capital runs a concentrated portfolio of 15-18 stocks focused on generating long-term returns through patient capital deployment in the Indian market, emphasizing disciplined process over outcome-based learning and maintaining conviction through periods of underperformance.
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| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11 2026 | 2026 Q2 | MCX.NS, TATAELXSI.NS | Behavioral Finance, Capital markets, commodities, Concentrated Portfolio, India, Investment Process, value | - | 2Point2 Capital delivered 12.7% in Q1 FY27, maintaining its concentrated 15-18 stock portfolio with 93.4% equity exposure. The letter argues that investing's weak feedback loops make learning from past outcomes unreliable and potentially harmful. Two detailed case studies—Tata Elxsi and MCX—demonstrate how cognitive biases distort retrospective analysis, emphasizing disciplined process over outcome-based learning in long-term value investing. |
| Apr 12 2026 | 2026 Q1 | INFY.NS, NESTLEIND.NS, TCS.NS, TTAN.NS | AI, India, Research, technology, value | - | 2Point2 Capital outperformed in a challenging quarter, delivering insights on AI's transformative yet limited impact on investing. While AI democratizes research and analysis, making markets more competitive, the fund emphasizes that successful value investing still requires human judgment, temperament, and qualitative research capabilities that AI cannot replicate. |
| Jan 12 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Discipline, fundamentals, India, multiples, pricing, valuation, value | - | 2Point2 Capital delivered strong Q3 performance while warning against the dangerous rise of second-order pricing constructs replacing fundamental valuation discipline. The manager argues that relative valuation and greater fool theory have created elevated multiples lacking business fundamentals, creating systematic fragility when sentiment inevitably shifts from voting machine to weighing machine dynamics. |
| Oct 9 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ADANIENT.NS, ADANIGREEN.NS, ADANITRANS.NS, LUKCF, NKLA | Banking, Capital markets, India, market structure, Price Discovery, regulation, Short-selling, value | - | 2Point2 Capital advocates for liberalizing India's restrictive short-selling regulations to enable better price discovery and market discipline. Despite Q2 underperformance driven by banking sector asset quality issues, the manager maintains concentrated positioning while arguing that activist short sellers serve as crucial market oversight mechanisms, citing fraud exposures at Luckin Coffee, Nikola, and Adani Group as evidence. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | INDIGO.NS | circle of competence, concentrated, India, long-term, value | - | 2Point2 delivered strong 25.7% Q1 returns but faced headwinds from banking sector asset quality issues. The letter emphasizes staying within circle of competence after sharing their costly Indigo airline mistake. Managers advocate for concentrated value investing approach, acknowledging limitations rather than chasing opportunities outside expertise areas. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | IDEA.NS, SPICEJET.NS, TITAN.NS, YESBANK.NS | Bias, Concentration, India, Research, risk management, skepticism, value | - | 2Point2 Capital outperformed during Q4's market decline while delivering strong long-term returns. The managers warn against the pervasive bullish influence from management, analysts, and media that can lead to poor investment decisions. They advocate for independent research, skeptical thinking, and awareness of cognitive biases to avoid costly mistakes in an environment designed to promote buying. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | SWIGGY.NS, ZOMATO.NS | competition, E-Commerce, growth, India, moats, valuation, value | - | 2Point2 Capital argues high-growth sectors often destroy rather than create investor value due to intense competition and overvaluation. The fund maintains concentrated value investing approach, avoiding speculative bubbles in quick commerce, solar, and defense sectors trading at extreme multiples. Focus remains on companies with durable moats and valuation discipline over growth narratives. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Buybacks, dividends, India, Taxation, value | - | 2Point2 Capital highlights an overlooked tax policy risk in Indian equities. While investors focus on capital gains tax increases, the dramatic rise in dividend and buyback taxation from 0% to 36% creates more significant long-term headwinds. This invisible burden will reduce corporate payouts, encourage empire building, and compress equity valuations across Indian markets. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | BAJFINANCE.NS, EICHERMOT.NS, HINDPETRO.NS | Base Rate, Behavioral Finance, India, Market Multiples, Valuations, Value Investing | - | 2Point2's concentrated value fund returned 10.7% in Q1 FY25, maintaining 89.9% equity exposure despite warning of absurd Indian market valuations. The managers highlight base rate neglect driving extreme small and mid-cap multiples, with historical data showing very few companies can deliver the growth needed to justify current 75x+ P/E ratios. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ASTRA.NS, INDHOTEL.NS, IONEXCHANGE.NS, SAFARI.NS, SAREGAMA.NS, TATAELXSI.NS, TATAINVEST.NS, TATAMOTORS.NS, TITAN.NS, TRENT.NS | concentrated, India, Performance, Selling, value | - | 2Point2 Capital's concentrated Indian value fund returned 45.2% in FY24 despite a challenging Q4. The managers candidly examine six major selling mistakes where stocks rose 5-15x post-exit, highlighting the difficulty of timing exits in quality businesses. Key lesson: be more patient with temporary setbacks while maintaining valuation discipline. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | DELTACORP.NS, NESTLEIND.NS | concentrated, India, long-term, Quality, Resilience, value | - | 2Point2 Capital advocates holding quality companies through adverse events, arguing that resilient businesses with moats recover from temporary setbacks. The concentrated Indian value fund returned 10.1% in Q3, maintaining strong long-term performance. Management emphasizes patience over reaction, using volatility as buying opportunities rather than selling triggers for their 15-18 stock portfolio. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | capital flows, Concentration, India, Long Term, risk management, small caps, value, volatility | - | 2Point2 Capital warns against current small-cap euphoria driven by FOMO rather than fundamentals. Despite strong Q2 performance and robust Indian economic backdrop, they emphasize the Stockdale Paradox: maintain long-term faith while preparing for inevitable volatility. Their concentrated value approach focuses on structural growth opportunities while avoiding speculative excess that could destroy wealth when the cycle turns. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ASIANPAINT.NS, HDFCBANK.NS, NESTLEIND.NS, TCS.NS | alpha, concentrated, Fund Management, India, Performance, Quality, value | - | 2Point2 Capital's concentrated Indian value fund delivered 25.1% returns in Q1 FY24, outperforming benchmarks through focused investing in 15-18 quality companies. The managers emphasize that fund size is the enemy of returns, arguing successful active managers must limit assets under management to preserve their competitive advantages and alpha generation capability. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | cash flow, concentrated, Fraud Detection, India, Quality, value | - | 2Point2 Capital outperformed in Q4 with strong portfolio company fundamentals showing 20%+ profit growth. The fund emphasizes free cash flow analysis to avoid accounting frauds, arguing that rising rates will expose companies with fake profits but negative cash generation while benefiting their concentrated portfolio of quality Indian businesses. |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Behavioral FinanceThe letter extensively discusses cognitive biases in investing, including narrative fallacy, halo effect, and hindsight bias. The managers argue that weak feedback loops in investing make learning from past experiences unreliable and potentially harmful. They emphasize the need to separate process from outcome and resist drawing quick lessons from individual investment results. |
Cognitive Bias Hindsight Bias Narrative Fallacy Investment Process Decision Making |
CommoditiesMCX's success was driven by unprecedented volatility in energy and bullion products aided by two wars. The managers note that commodity volatility was rising when they initially invested, expecting a recovery in commodity futures volumes after a seven-year lull. The shift from futures to options trading became a key driver of MCX's performance. |
Commodity Trading Energy Bullion Futures Options | |
Capital MarketsThe letter discusses MCX extensively as a capital markets infrastructure play. The managers highlight the structural shift from futures to options trading, drawing parallels to NSE's options boom. They note the post-Covid surge in retail trading and the migration of liquidity to options due to stringent SEBI margin rules on futures. |
Exchanges Options Trading Retail Trading Market Structure Derivatives | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI is revolutionizing investing by commoditizing research and analysis, making it more competitive by democratizing information access. However, AI cannot replace qualitative aspects like channel checks, temperament, and conviction. The core tenets of value investing remain largely human-driven despite AI's efficiency gains. |
Artificial Intelligence Research Analysis Productivity Competition |
| 2025 Q4 |
ValuationThe managers warn against the rise of second-order pricing constructs where investors justify prices by reference to other prices rather than business fundamentals. They critique the greater-fool theory and relative valuation methods that have replaced first-principles thinking in current markets. |
Multiples Fundamentals Pricing DCF |
| 2025 Q3 |
Capital MarketsThe letter extensively discusses India's capital market structure, particularly the evolution of short-selling mechanisms from the pre-2001 Badla era through current Securities Lending and Borrowing frameworks. The manager argues for liberalizing short-selling rules to enable better price discovery and market discipline, comparing India's restrictive approach to more developed Western markets. |
Short-selling Price Discovery Market Structure Regulation Liquidity |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe fund follows a concentrated value investing approach, holding 15-18 stocks and focusing on generating long-term returns. The strategy emphasizes staying within one's circle of competence and avoiding investments outside areas of expertise. |
Value Concentrated Long-term |
| 2025 Q1 |
Risk AppetiteThe letter extensively discusses how investors are constantly influenced by bullish narratives from management, sell-side analysts, media, and social media. It emphasizes the need for skepticism and independent research to avoid being swayed by overly optimistic narratives that can lead to costly investment mistakes. |
Skepticism Bias Research Independence Narratives |
| 2024 Q4 |
E-commerceThe letter extensively discusses the competitive dynamics in India's e-commerce sector, particularly quick commerce and horizontal e-commerce. It highlights how intense competition led to massive capital burn among players like Flipkart, Amazon, Snapdeal, and Paytm during 2010-2020, with many going bankrupt and survivors still unprofitable. The quick commerce space is now experiencing similar dynamics with multiple well-funded players competing aggressively. |
Quick Commerce Horizontal Ecommerce Competition Capital Burn Market Share |
Quick CommerceQuick commerce is presented as a case study of how early success can attract intense competition. Blinkit demonstrated viability which led to Big Basket, Flipkart, Amazon, Zepto, and Swiggy entering the space with significant funding. The letter suggests Blinkit's early success may have hurt its long-term prospects by proving the model's viability to competitors. |
Blinkit Delivery Competition Funding Market Leadership | |
GrowthThe central theme argues that high industry growth often doesn't translate to high investor returns due to intense competition, difficulty identifying winners, capex binges leading to overcapacity, and overvaluation. The letter warns that obvious growth prospects don't guarantee profits for investors, citing Benjamin Graham's wisdom. |
High Growth Competition Overvaluation Capex Returns | |
ValueThe fund emphasizes value investing principles, focusing on companies with durable moats and maintaining valuation discipline. The letter advocates for patience, prudence, and focus on fundamentals rather than chasing high-growth sectors with speculative valuations of 100-150x P/E ratios. |
Valuation Discipline Moats Fundamentals Patience Intrinsic Value | |
| 2024 Q3 |
DividendsThe letter extensively discusses how taxation on corporate payouts through dividends has increased dramatically, with effective tax rates now reaching 36% for high-net-worth investors. This creates negative consequences including reduced payout ratios, empire building by companies, and lower equity valuations as the intrinsic value of businesses declines when payouts are heavily taxed. |
Taxation Corporate Payouts Tax Policy Shareholder Returns Valuations |
BuybacksTax on buyback income has increased from 0% to 36% for individual promoters in just six years, representing a far more material change than capital gains tax increases. This creates incentives for companies to hoard cash rather than return it to shareholders, and may encourage unethical behavior by promoters to access excess cash while avoiding tax liability. |
Share Repurchases Tax Policy Corporate Finance Capital Allocation Shareholder Value | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ValuationsIndian stock market valuations have reached absurd levels never before seen in capital market history. Small and mid-cap valuations are particularly extreme, with 217 stocks trading above 75x TTM P/E and 392 above 50x TTM P/E among top 1000 companies. Base rate analysis shows very few companies can deliver the high growth rates needed to justify these valuations. |
P/E Ratios Market Multiples Growth Expectations Base Rates Historical Analysis |
| 2024 Q1 |
ValueThe fund follows a concentrated value investing approach, holding 15-18 stocks and focusing on generating long-term returns. The managers analyze past selling decisions where they exited investments due to valuation concerns, only to see those stocks continue rising substantially post-exit. |
Valuation Concentrated Long-term Selling Returns |
| 2023 Q4 |
ResilienceThe letter extensively discusses how quality companies with competitive moats demonstrate resilience during adverse events. The managers argue that market leaders with superior profitability can navigate challenges across economic cycles, often recovering stronger than expected from setbacks like COVID-19. |
Moats Recovery Cycles Quality Leadership |
ValueThe fund focuses on intrinsic value investing, emphasizing that adverse events often create buying opportunities when stocks trade below their DCF values. The managers advocate using event-driven volatility to acquire undervalued companies rather than selling them. |
Intrinsic DCF Undervalued Volatility Opportunity | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Small CapsSmall-cap stocks have experienced significant outperformance driven by strong economic fundamentals and capital flows. However, this space is prone to swift 30%+ drawdowns and cyclical capital flows that can bring down prices faster than they rise. |
Small Cap Mid Cap Volatility Capital Flows Cyclical |
Risk AppetiteCurrent market euphoria is driven by FOMO and hope for quick gains rather than fundamental analysis. Many investors lack understanding of the harsh realities and volatility inherent in small and mid-cap segments. |
FOMO Euphoria Volatility Market Sentiment Speculation | |
IndiaThe Indian economy is on strong footing with robust growth, manageable inflation and interest rates, favorable geopolitics, resolved bank NPA issues, and visible capex recovery. This provides a foundation for long-term structural growth. |
Economic Growth Capex Banking Structural Growth Fundamentals | |
| 2023 Q2 |
QualityThe fund focuses on concentrated investing in high-quality companies with strong operating performance. Portfolio companies demonstrated median YoY profit growth of 25%+ in Q4 FY23, with financials being a key driver of earnings growth. |
Concentrated Earnings Financials Growth Performance |
| 2023 Q1 |
QualityThe fund emphasizes identifying quality businesses through free cash flow analysis to avoid accounting frauds. They focus on companies that generate real cash flows rather than just accounting profits, as fraudulent businesses typically show strong earnings but poor cash generation due to the costs of maintaining accounting manipulation. |
Free Cash Flow Accounting Fraud Detection Cash Generation Quality Metrics |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| TATAELXSI.NS | We invested in Tata Elxsi in 2019. At that time, Tata Elxsi was facing business challenges as its largest and most profitable customer, Jaguar Land Rover, was struggling and reducing its R&D outsourcing budget. As revenues and margins declined, the Tata Elxsi stock fell by over 50% from its previous highs. We had been following Tata Elxsi for several years and liked the ER&D Services industry. In our view, Tata Elxsi's challenges were temporary as the non-JLR business was still growing at a healthy rate. With valuations declining to 18x TTM P/E, we found the risk-reward quite attractive. Tata Elxsi's troubles turned out to be short-lived. Growth in other business segments compensated for the decline due to JLR, and Tata Elxsi's margins expanded materially. As the business momentum picked up, the stock recovered and begun trading at valuations north of 40x P/E. We found the valuations excessive as we believed the 29% EBITDA margins may not be sustainable and growth may not exceed 15%. Our anchoring bias of having paid only an 18x P/E might have also played a role here. We exited the investment in early 2021 at an attractive ~3x return in less than 18 months. To our surprise, Tata Elxsi over the next 2 years, reported >30% growth in revenues and margins improved further. The stock went up over 5x from our exit price as the valuations crossed 100x P/E! Investors who were earlier worried about the JLR issues and unwilling to buy at sub-20x P/E were now extrapolating strong growth into the future and willing to pay any price. The stock is down more than 65% from its peak. The earnings growth over last 5 years has declined to 14% (like we had originally expected). The CAGR return of the stock since our exit is barely double digit and has trailed Nifty-500 returns. |
| MCX.NS | MCX has been one of our most successful investments at 2Point2, yielding a 10x+ return since we first bought it in April 2020. However, its success had little to do with our original thesis. We initially invested expecting a recovery in commodity futures volumes after a seven-year lull. Commodity volatility was rising, and we expected that operating leverage would drive disproportionate growth in profits. The Covid-crash had resulted in valuations reducing to near 20x trailing P/E which we found attractive. Initially, both the business and the stock struggled to perform. Stringent SEBI margin rules (triggered by negative crude prices) caused crude Average Daily Trading Volume (ADTV) to crash by ~75%. Plagued by a messy tech migration, the stock barely moved for three years. MCX's stock performance was in the bottom 5% of the top 1,000 stocks. Nevertheless, we continued to hold the stock as we believed that the stringent margin rules were not permanent in nature. The regulator's strict margins on futures had an unintended consequence though: liquidity migrated rapidly to options. Monitoring the business closely allowed us to notice this real-time shift. Drawing parallels to NSE's options boom, we updated our thesis to focus on explosive options growth and chose to hold through the underperformance. MCX trading volumes further benefited from a post-Covid surge in retail trading and from unprecedented volatility in energy and bullion products aided by two wars. The eventual outcome: Q4 FY26 operating profits that are 4x of full-year FY20 profits and a 13x increase in stock price! We still have a small position in MCX. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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