| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 16.77% | -1.71% | -1.71% |
T. Bailey's multi-asset funds navigated a quarter defined by sequential shocks that forced investors to re-examine long-standing assumptions about American institutions and global frameworks. The quarter began strongly with funds returning 4.5-7.1% through February, supported by deliberate tilts toward Asia and emerging markets that benefited from Fed independence concerns and dollar weakness. However, the largest energy supply disruption in living memory reversed much of these gains in March when US-Israeli strikes on Iran escalated into Strait of Hormuz closure, sending Brent crude above $110. The AI theme faced pressure from Anthropic's industry-specific plugins, prompting rotation from high-multiple software to semiconductor infrastructure. Gold delivered 44.6% over twelve months despite March weakness. The funds demonstrated resilience through diversified positioning, with absolute return strategies providing stability during volatile periods. Looking forward, the manager emphasizes prudent risk management and selectivity while maintaining exposure to attractively valued themes with pricing power, building portfolios capable of adapting to an increasingly multipolar world.
Active multi-asset approach focused on attractively valued themes and sectors with companies demonstrating robust earnings growth and pricing power, positioned for a more volatile and multipolar world.
We believe this is a time to be prudent with risk, to be selective, to think globally, and to build equity and multi-asset portfolios capable of adapting to a more volatile and multipolar world. Volatility appears more likely than structural impairment. A sustained disruption to energy supply or policy-induced growth shock would warrant reassessment.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BYTS.L, BZ.L, CKN.L | AI, emerging markets, energy, Geopolitical, gold, Iran, Japan, Multi-Asset | - | Multi-asset funds weathered sequential geopolitical shocks through diversified positioning and regional tilts. Strong early-quarter performance from Asia/emerging markets exposure was partially reversed by Iran conflict and energy supply disruption. AI theme rotation and gold volatility highlighted active management benefits. Manager maintains constructive but selective approach, emphasizing companies with pricing power for volatile, multipolar environment. |
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AZN.L, BYTS.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LLOY.L, MAN.L, MNDI.L, NWG.L, ORCL, ROR.L, TSCO.L | AI, Central Banks, Copper, diversification, gold, Multi-Asset, Trade Policy, UK Budget | - | Multi-asset fund delivered 3.5% quarterly return through diversified positioning across commodities, thematics, and geographies. AI focus shifted from growth to monetisation following Oracle's warning. Central bank policy divergence and US-China trade truce shaped markets. Portfolio benefited from gold, copper, and healthcare exposure while maintaining defensive positioning ahead of 2026 uncertainties. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AZN.L, CCC.L, CKN.L, COA.L, HILS.L, IMI.L, INTC, ITRK.L, JDG.L, LRE.L, MSFT, MSLH.L, NVDA, ROR.L, SPI.L, STEM.L, TSCO.L | AI, diversification, emerging markets, fiscal policy, gold, monetary policy, Multi-Asset, risk management |
GLDN AU CHRY LN |
T. Bailey delivered positive multi-asset returns in Q3 2025 led by gold's record highs and emerging market outperformance. The firm reduced AI concentration risk while maintaining global diversification across attractive regions including Japan, UK, and Asia. Despite fiscal credibility concerns and political pressure on central banks, the strategy focuses on delivering real returns above inflation through disciplined active management. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AZN, BEZ.L, CRM, CSCO, EMG.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LRE.L, MSFT, NEM, NVDA, PANW, PETS.L, ROR.L, SPC.L, STEM.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | active management, AI, cybersecurity, defense, diversification, Geopolitical, UK Equities, value | ETLN GR | T. Bailey argues US market dominance is fading as international equities outperform amid geopolitical tensions and stretched US valuations. The firm advocates diversification into global markets and active management to capture opportunities in AI, cybersecurity, and defense spending while avoiding over-concentration risks. Portfolios delivered solid Q2 returns through value-focused strategies and thematic investments. |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AJB.L, AZN, BEZ.L, CCC.L, CKN.L, FOUR.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, MGAM.L, ORN.L, OXIG.L, RICD.L, ROR.L, SXS.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | AI, commodities, defense, diversification, Europe, infrastructure, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | T. Bailey navigated Q1 2025 volatility through global diversification, benefiting from European defense spending surge and commodity strength while trimming expensive US tech. Trump's escalating tariff policies create significant macro risks with 60% recession probability, but the firm maintains defensive positioning and sees opportunities in undervalued non-US markets when stability returns. |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AZN, BEZ.L, BYIT.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, FOUR.L, HIK.L, HILS.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, MGAM.L, MGNS.L, OGN.L, PETS.L, ROR.L, STHR.L, SXS.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | AI, diversification, gold, Multi-Asset, REITs, thematic, UK Equities, value | - | T. Bailey's multi-asset funds delivered 5.5-8.5% annual returns despite mixed Q4 performance. The manager favors undervalued UK equities over expensive US markets, maintains AI and cybersecurity themes, and positions defensively through diversified assets including gold and absolute return funds. They expect earnings broadening and value recovery while navigating policy uncertainty from the new US administration. |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AZN, BEZ.L, BWY.L, CCC.L, COA.L, EXPN.L, HLMA.L, ITRK.L, KLR.L, OXIG.L | AI, gold, infrastructure, interest rates, Multi-Asset, Uk, value | - | Multi-asset funds capitalized on monetary policy shift from inflation control to growth support, driving broader market leadership. Strategic infrastructure additions and value-oriented holdings outperformed as interest rates declined. AI theme faced valuation pressures but manager maintains balanced exposure. Gold provided portfolio diversification. Positioned for continued rate cuts despite near-term volatility from elections and geopolitical tensions. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
GoldGold delivered 44.6% returns over twelve months driven by emerging market central banks accumulating as part of structural diversification away from dollar reserves. However, gold declined 10% in March despite active military conflict as rising real yields increased opportunity cost and stronger dollar compounded the effect. |
Gold Central Banks Dollar Safe Haven Reserves |
AIAI theme faced pressure when Anthropic launched industry-specific plugins for Claude Cowork, raising concerns about general-purpose AI agents replicating specialist software workflows. The pAIn trade was often indiscriminate, sweeping up resilient businesses alongside genuinely threatened ones. Capital rotated from high-multiple software names to semiconductor and data center infrastructure. |
AI Software Semiconductors Data Centers Anthropic | |
OilThe largest energy supply disruption in living memory occurred when US and Israeli strikes on Iran escalated into closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recorded its largest monthly gain on record, ending above $110 per barrel. Qatar halted LNG exports and Iraqi output was curtailed. |
Oil Iran Strait of Hormuz Energy Geopolitical | |
Emerging marketsAsia and emerging markets were principal beneficiaries of Fed independence concerns and weaker dollar through January and February. The deliberate tilt towards these regions was well rewarded early in the quarter. However, energy-importing economies faced rising costs and deteriorating growth simultaneously after the Iran conflict. |
Emerging Markets Asia Dollar Energy Growth | |
JapanJapan was a particular standout beneficiary of institutional credibility concerns elsewhere. Prime Minister Takaichi's two-thirds parliamentary supermajority secured in February snap election reinforced confidence in expansionary fiscal agenda and corporate governance reforms unlocking shareholder value. |
Japan Corporate Governance Fiscal Policy Reforms Politics | |
| 2025 Q4 |
GoldGold contributed strongly to portfolio performance over the quarter, supported by a favourable macro environment and an increasingly uncertain geopolitical backdrop. Gold strengthened materially in Q4 as expectations of lower real rates, sustained central bank buying and renewed safe-haven demand reinforced its role as a strategic reserve asset. Gold closed the year at near record levels. |
Safe Haven Central Banks Geopolitical |
CopperCopper led performance within multi-asset portfolios, advancing 16.57% over the quarter. Following a correction in July 2025, copper stabilised and rebuilt momentum through Q4, finishing close to prior highs. The move was underpinned by a structurally tight supply-demand backdrop, compounded by disruption risk across key producing regions. |
Supply Demand Infrastructure Electrification | |
AIArtificial intelligence continued to dominate investor attention, extending a theme that had driven much of 2025's market performance. However, investor focus shifted from growth potential to questions of profitability and capital discipline. Oracle's December profit warning and data-centre project delays intensified scrutiny of near-term monetisation. |
Infrastructure Monetisation Profitability | |
HealthcareHealthcare exposure was among the standout contributors to performance. Ongoing scrutiny of drug pricing and clearer reform momentum helped reduce perceived policy risk. The sector benefited from a constructive backdrop with policy risks receding and valuations looking attractive versus equities. |
Policy Risk Valuations Reform | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI-driven rally led by US megacaps shows growing concentration risk. NVIDIA evolved from enabler to financier with $100bn OpenAI investment and $5bn Intel collaboration. Fund managers remain cautious on elevated valuations but confident in transition from overvalued enablers to longer-term AI adoption beneficiaries. |
NVIDIA OpenAI Hyperscalers Enablers Beneficiaries |
GoldGold climbed relentlessly through the quarter, surpassing $3,800 per ounce to set fresh record highs. Strength captured growing unease over debt, deficits, and erosion of institutional independence. Supported by falling bond yields, rising rate cut expectations, and sustained central bank purchases. |
Safe Haven Central Banks Monetary Policy Inflation Hedge Precious Metals | |
Emerging MarketsAsia ex-Japan delivered strongest regional returns for sterling-based investors. China introduced fresh stimulus measures for consumer spending and housing market. Emerging markets outperformed supported by softer US dollar, easing inflationary pressures, and selective rate cuts across key economies. |
China Stimulus Currency Rate Cuts Outperformance | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI-led productivity gains are real and technology focused funds like Polar Capital AI rebounded strongly in Q2. The fund takes a broader approach including allocations to industrials positioned as beneficiaries of AI adoption. Sharp recoveries in AI enablers like Nvidia and Microsoft drove V-shaped price action from Q1 to Q2. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Nvidia Microsoft |
CybersecurityGeopolitical tensions and rising cyber threats drove strong performance for cybersecurity investments in Q2. The Israel/Iran conflict intensified focus on digital warfare, prompting increased investment in cyber defence across public and private sectors. Demand for real-time threat detection accelerated. |
Cyber Defense Digital Warfare Threat Detection Geopolitical Security | |
Defense SpendingRising European defence spending provided a powerful tailwind for industrials, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed commitments from NATO members to meet or exceed 2% defence spending targets. This drove sustained demand across the defence value chain. |
NATO Military Geopolitical Industrial Europe | |
DiversificationDiversification and active management are re-emerging as critical tools for navigating uncertainty, capturing selective opportunities, and avoiding over-concentration risks. The environment is revalidating the role of active management as passive strategies face challenges in changing structural trends. |
Active Management Risk Management Portfolio Allocation Flexibility | |
ValueUK equities remain undervalued and overlooked with appealing market valuations and potential rate cuts ahead. International markets are more reasonably priced relative to their history while US assets are priced at a premium. Value-focused approaches benefited from shifts away from highly valued US growth stocks. |
Undervalued Valuation UK Market International Premium | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense spending surge driven by policy shifts, deadlock in US-Ukraine aid discussions, and pressure on NATO members to boost military budgets. Germany's €500 billion infrastructure and defense spending program boosted regional confidence. The L&G Europe Ex UK Equity ETF was introduced to access the entire defense value chain and economic impact. |
NATO Military Infrastructure Policy |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's unpredictable tariff policies unsettled global markets, contributing to heightened volatility and early fears of stagflation. Tariffs particularly targeting China and North American trading partners undermined investor confidence and triggered sharp market swings. Post-quarter end, sweeping new tariffs on imports from over 180 countries including 34% additional tariff on Chinese goods. |
Tariffs China Volatility Stagflation | |
Infrastructure SpendingGermany launched a €500 billion infrastructure and defense spending program that boosted regional confidence and led to strong performance in cyclically sensitive sectors. This highlighted a notable shift away from the longstanding dominance of US equity markets. Infrastructure optimism also drove copper prices higher. |
Germany Cyclical Regional | |
CopperCopper prices surged over 20% driven by infrastructure optimism and supply-demand trends. The metal benefited from front-running of potential US tariffs, global infrastructure optimism, and long-term secular trends toward electrification. Copper futures reached record highs as buyers rushed to secure supply before tariffs take effect. |
Electrification Supply Futures Records | |
GoldGold reached record highs as a safe-haven asset amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. Performance reflects ongoing concerns over persistent inflation exacerbated by tariffs, central bank diversification away from the US dollar, investor demand for inflation hedging and geopolitical risk management. |
Safe Haven Central Banks Hedging Records | |
AINew cost-effective AI models such as China's DeepSeek garnered attention and prompted re-evaluation of high valuations for US technology stocks. AI hyperscalers unwound following introduction of more efficient AI models. Benefits expanding into other sectors like Healthcare, Insurance, and Industrials as earnings broaden out. |
DeepSeek Valuations Healthcare Industrials | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIThe fund maintains exposure to AI through Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund, which recovered after a challenging prior quarter. The manager sees AI benefits expanding into other sectors like Healthcare, Insurance, and Industrials as earnings broaden out. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Healthcare Insurance Industrials |
CybersecurityExposure through First Trust Cybersecurity ETF which provides critical infrastructure essential for safeguarding data and networks. The fund has benefited from developments in AI and is aligned to the digitisation theme. |
Cybersecurity Data Protection Infrastructure Digitisation | |
GoldGold performed well during the quarter due to favourable positioning amidst modestly declining yet persistent inflation and more accommodative monetary policy. The manager views gold as a portfolio diversifier and alternative currency rather than an inflation hedge. |
Gold Diversification Monetary Policy Inflation | |
CopperThe fund maintains exposure to copper through WisdomTree Copper ETC, though it faced challenges potentially due to short-term decrease in demand as economic activity slowed in certain regions. The manager favours both supply and demand dynamics of the metal. |
Copper Commodities Supply Demand | |
ValueThe manager sees value equities having potential to make up ground as earnings broaden out from factors that have lagged in recent quarters. UK equities are highlighted as trading at attractive valuations and wide discount to history and other regions. |
Value Valuations UK Equities Earnings | |
| 2024 Q3 |
InfrastructureManager introduced VT Gravis UK Infrastructure Fund recognizing that softening interest rates would benefit closed-ended infrastructure funds trading at wide discounts. Infrastructure and property exposure through Impact Healthcare REIT and Urban Logistics provided strong returns as the sector recovers from a low base. |
Infrastructure Spending REITs Discounts Interest Rates |
AIArtificial intelligence theme faced challenges as valuations rose and expectations increased. Manager maintains balanced exposure through Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund while recognizing shift from large-cap tech enablers toward companies that can benefit from AI implementation. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Valuations Implementation | |
ValueMarket leadership shifted toward value equities as interest rate cycle turned. Value-conscious funds like Ranmore Global Equity and WS Havelock Global Select were additive to performance, benefiting from improving market breadth and rotation away from growth. |
Value Investing Market Leadership Rotation Breadth | |
GoldGold allocation acts as diversifier and alternative currency rather than inflation hedge. Physical gold backing is important given elevated correlations, and the diversifying element is particularly relevant to multi-asset portfolios in current environment. |
Gold Diversification Currency Physical |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | GLDN AU | iShares Physical Gold ETF | Other | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | Commodities, diversification, Gold, Hedging, inflation, Macro, Rates, Safehaven | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CHRY LN | Chrysalis Investments Limited | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, discounts, Fintech, growth, IPOs, NAV, Privateequity, valuation | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | ETLN GR | L&G Europe Ex UK ETF | Financials | Exchange-Traded Funds | Bull | Bourse de Casablanca | Capital Rotation, Defense spending, Europe, Industrials, NATO | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BZ.L | Specialist insurer Beazley's stellar share price performance was mainly due to Zurich's takeover approach. Zurich announced and then improved an all-cash offer, culminating in agreed terms valuing Beazley at a c.60% premium. Strong 2025 results underpinned Zurich's interest and supported the re-rating. |
| CKN.L | Shipping services provider, Clarkson, was a strong contributor as investors looked through softer earnings to the supportive shipping backdrop and positive 2026 momentum. An indirect beneficiary of current geopolitical tensions, disruption to Hormuz transit increases volatility and complexity in chartering, boosting the demand for Clarkson's brokerage, research and advisory services. |
| BYTS.L | Share price performance of the software reseller reflected several pressures: reduced Microsoft Enterprise Agreement incentives hitting mainly public sector business, a challenging macro backdrop, and disruption from restructuring its corporate sales division. These factors dampened revenue and profit expectations. Broker downgrades and concerns over leverage further weakened sentiment. A late March 2026 trading update, which flagged ongoing trading headwinds and a disappointing profit outlook, triggered a sharp one day drop and cemented the quarter's de-rating. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
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