| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 13.5% | 3.8% | 15.3% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.3% | 8.6% | 1.9% | -18.3% | 9.0% |
T. Bailey Global Thematic Equity Fund delivered 3.81% in Q4 2025 and 15.25% for the full year through diversified thematic exposure. Performance was broad-based with commodities leading, as gold reached new highs above $4,500 and copper rose 16.57% on electrification demand and supply constraints. AI remained a key theme despite Oracle's profit warning highlighting monetization scrutiny, with Polar Capital AI Fund returning 6.58%. Healthcare contributed positively as policy risks receded and valuations became attractive. The fund increased emerging market exposure and added Japan income-focused strategies while maintaining geographic diversification away from concentrated US markets. Trade tensions persisted despite a temporary US-China tariff truce. Central bank policy divergence created uneven global conditions with the Bank of Japan raising rates while the Fed cut. Looking ahead to 2026, the manager emphasizes valuation discipline and broad opportunity access amid high public debt, increased government market involvement, and the need for AI investments to generate sustainable cash flows.
Active thematic investing across global markets with emphasis on AI, commodities, healthcare, and geographic diversification away from concentrated US exposure.
Looking into 2026, the backdrop is shaped by high public-sector debt, greater government involvement in trade and industry, and the need for the current wave of AI investment to translate into sustainable cash flows. In this environment we consider valuation discipline, liquidity, and access to a broad opportunity set matter more than forecasting any single outcome.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AZN, BYTS.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LLOY.L, MAN.L, MNDI.L, NWG.L, ORCL, ROR.L, TESCO.L | AI, Copper, emerging markets, gold, healthcare, Japan, thematic, Trade Policy | PCGH LN | Artificial intelligence shifted from growth to returns on capital focus. Oracle's December profit warning and data-centre project delays intensified scrutiny of near-term monetisation. AI-exposed strategies performed well with Polar Capital AI Fund returning 6.58%. Gold surged above US$4,300 per ounce in October, then reached new highs above US$4,500 in December. Supported by falling bond yields, rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchases. Copper performed well rising 16.57% in Q4, supported by ongoing electrification, infrastructure spend, tight supply due to limited new mine capacity, and stockpiling activity amid tariff uncertainty. Healthcare exposure contributed positively as policy risks receded, valuations looked attractive, and investors rotated toward high-quality, cash-generative businesses with resilient earnings. Trade tensions stayed elevated despite a truce. Threatened tariff escalation in October gave way to a one-year US-China tariff truce after late-October talks, easing near-term supply-chain risk but left strategic issues unresolved. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CHRY LN, MERFGBP ID, PCHCOIS ID | AI, Cloud, cybersecurity, Hyperscalers, semiconductors | CHRY LN | The fund emphasizes the continued dominance of AI-related equities, benefiting from hyperscaler momentum and strong performance in thematic holdings like Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence and cybersecurity ETFs. While AI remains a powerful return driver, the manager notes stretched valuations and limited visibility on long-term capital returns. AI continues to shape sector leadership, driving allocation decisions and risk management across the thematic portfolio. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | CHRY LN, CIBR, PUKVRGA ID | AI, cybersecurity, defense, Thematic Investing, valuation |
CHRY LN CIBR |
The letter highlights thematic investing focused on structural trends such as AI, cybersecurity, defense, and regional rotation away from US dominance. Valuation dispersion within themes creates opportunities for active selection. Geopolitical risk reinforces demand for real assets and security-related technologies. |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BLAGESI ID, ETLN GR | - | - | |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CHRY LN, CIBR, EWSX LN | - | - | |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | CHRY LN, PCFIIUA ID | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
HealthcareHealthcare was the strongest relative contributor in the quarter with holdings increasing nearly +16% compared to benchmark returns of roughly +12%. Exact Sciences was acquired for a significant premium by Abbott Laboratories resulting in an +86% return, while other strong performers included Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Glaukos following approval of a new product, Penumbra, and Repligen driven by strong earnings results. |
M&A Product Approval Earnings Biotech | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
| 2025 Q2 |
Thematic |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CHRY LN | Chrysalis Investments Limited | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, discounts, Fintech, growth, IPOs, NAV, Privateequity, valuation | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CHRY LN | Chrysalis | Financials | Closed-End Funds | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, discount, Liquidity, NAV, private equity | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CIBR | First Trust Cyber Security ETF | Financials | Exchange-Traded Funds | Bull | NASDAQ | cybersecurity, Defense, Geopolitics, Software, Threat Detection | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | PCGH LN | Pantheon Capital Growth Trust | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | diversification, growth, NAV discount, private equity, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| AZN | World-class pharmaceutical and medical products manufacturer |
| EXPN.L | Experian's shares were -1% in 2025. Consistent with much of the rest of the portfolio, operating results remain solid. The company will almost certainly report double-digit growth in earnings for 2025, and the company has met or exceeded investors' expectations for the year. The challenges have not so much been financial but hypothetical – focussed on AI's potential to change competitive dynamics in their industry. Experian is valued on a prospective 4.5% equity FCF yield. We have added to the Strategy's investments this year. |
| HLMA.L | Halma consists of over 50 manufacturers operating in global niches within the safety, environmental and healthcare sectors. Halma's diversification, focus on differentiated products and exposure to structurally growing markets have allowed yearly profits to compound at a 15% rate for more than four decades, with low variability. We believe Halma is exceptionally well-managed and expect this growth to continue. Despite Halma's share price rising 32% in 2025, its valuation remains reasonable given the durability and quality of its growth. |
| IMI.L | Our position in UK-listed IMI plc bolstered portfolio performance. As a global leader in the engineering of mission-critical valves and actuators, IMI provides essential fluid and motion control solutions strategically aligned with structural growth drivers. Since our initial entry in August 2024, the position has delivered substantial capital appreciation, rising over 40%. |
| LLOY.L | Lloyds Banking Group was among the rate-sensitive majors leading European banking sector outperformance. Sector returns have been underpinned by the stabilisation of short-term interest rates and a subsequent steepening of the European yield curve. |
| MAN.L | Man Group is a global active investment manager specialising in alternative and long-only strategies across public and private markets. Their Q3 trading statement released in mid-October was a major positive catalyst for a rebound in the share price having announced strong inflows and reaching record assets under management. |
| MNDI.L | Mondi is a leading European producer of corrugated packaging, containerboard, kraft paper, and uncoated fine paper. Currently, Mondi is out of favor due to a prolonged downturn in the European containerboard market, driven by oversupply and weak demand since 2022. Despite these near-term challenges, Mondi offers an attractive long-term opportunity. |
| NWG.L | Retail and commercial bank NatWest maintains a strong domestic market share offering wealth management and corporate banking services as well as a growing digital franchise. Results ahead of consensus on the back of upgraded guidance going in to the new year saw the share price surge throughout the final quarter. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
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