| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.75% | -1.52% | -1.52% |
The T. Bailey Global Thematic Equity Fund returned -1.52% in Q1 2026, with strong early-quarter performance reversed by geopolitical volatility. The fund benefited from its deliberate tilt toward Asia and emerging markets through January and February, with standout performance from AI exposure via Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund (+11.99%) and Japanese equities. However, the outbreak of conflict between the US/Israel and Iran in late February, including closure of the Strait of Hormuz, created significant energy market disruption. Brent crude recorded its largest monthly gain on record, ending above $110 per barrel. This energy shock particularly impacted import-dependent Asian economies, reversing earlier gains. The fund executed portfolio rotation, exiting passive European exposure in favor of active management through Lansdowne Developed Markets Fund and adding income-generating emerging market debt. Gold exposure provided mixed results, delivering 9.15% returns despite failing to maintain defensive characteristics during the conflict. The manager expects de-escalation and maintains focus on attractively valued themes with pricing power.
Active management across global thematic equity exposures, with particular focus on AI beneficiaries, emerging markets, and Japan, while navigating geopolitical volatility through diversified positioning and selective exposure to defensive assets like gold.
Global equity and fixed income markets appear to be arriving at the measured conclusion that de-escalation remains the most likely path forward. The Strait of Hormuz is too important geopolitically and economically for its closure to persist. Volatility appears more likely than structural impairment. The manager remains focused on attractively valued themes and sectors with robust earnings growth and pricing power.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, emerging markets, energy, Geopolitical, Global Thematic, gold, Japan, Multi-Asset | - | Global thematic equity fund delivered -1.52% as strong early gains from AI and Asian exposure were reversed by Iran conflict and energy shock. Brent crude hit record monthly gains above $110. Portfolio rotation favored active management over passive exposure. Despite geopolitical volatility, manager maintains conviction in AI beneficiaries, emerging markets, and Japan while expecting eventual de-escalation. |
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AZN, BYTS.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LLOY.L, MAN.L, MNDI.L, NWG.L, ORCL, ROR.L, TESCO.L | AI, Copper, emerging markets, gold, healthcare, Japan, thematic, Trade Policy | PCGH LN | T. Bailey Global Thematic delivered 3.81% in Q4 through diversified exposure to AI, commodities, and healthcare themes. Gold hit new highs while copper surged on electrification demand. The fund added emerging markets and Japan income exposure while maintaining geographic diversification. Manager emphasizes valuation discipline and broad opportunity access amid policy uncertainty and AI monetization questions. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AZN.L, CCC.L, CKN.L, COA.L, HILS.L, IMI.L, INTC, ITRK.L, JDG.L, LRE.L, MGNS.L, MSFT, MSLH.L, NVDA, ROR.L, SPI.L, STEM.L, TSCO.L | AI, diversification, emerging markets, fiscal policy, gold, healthcare, Multi-Asset, risk management | CHRY LN | T. Bailey delivered positive returns in Q3 2025 through diversified multi-asset positioning, with gold leading performance amid fiscal credibility concerns. The firm trimmed AI exposure to manage concentration risk while emphasizing undervalued regions like Japan, UK, and Emerging Markets. Fed rate cuts and Chinese stimulus provided support, but stretched US tech valuations and political interference in monetary policy create ongoing risks. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AZN, BEZ.L, CRM, CSCO, EMG.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LRE.L, MSFT, NEM, NVDA, PANW, PETS.L, ROR.L, SRC.L, STEM.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | AI, cybersecurity, defense, diversification, global, Multi-Asset, Uk, value |
CHRY LN CIBR |
T. Bailey argues US market dominance is fading as geopolitical tensions and stretched valuations drive rotation to better-valued international markets. The firm delivered 3-5% quarterly returns through diversified multi-asset strategies, benefiting from AI/cybersecurity themes, UK value opportunities, and successful REIT exits. Active management and geographic diversification are positioned as essential for navigating current uncertainty. |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AJB.L, AZN, BEZ.L, CCC.L, CKN.L, FOUR.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, MGAM.L, ORN.L, OXIG.L, RICD.L, ROR.L, SXS.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | commodities, defense, diversification, Europe, infrastructure, Multi-Asset, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | T. Bailey navigated Q1 2025 volatility by leveraging diversification beyond US markets, benefiting from European defense spending surge and commodity strength. Increased European exposure while trimming expensive US tech as AI disruption prompted valuation reassessment. Multi-asset funds delivered 2-3% returns despite trade policy uncertainty. Maintains defensive positioning with 45-55% in cash, debt, and alternatives while seeking non-US opportunities. |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AZN, BEZ.L, BYIT.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, FOUR.L, HIK.L, HILS.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, MGAM.L, MGNS.L, OGN.L, PETS.L, ROR.L, STHR.L, SXS.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | AI, diversification, gold, Multi-Asset, REITs, Uk | - | T. Bailey delivered mixed Q4 results but positive full-year gains across their multi-asset funds. The manager remains constructive on undervalued UK equities while cautious on expensive US markets. Portfolio positioned defensively with diversified high-quality assets, gold exposure, and alternative return sources. Expects economic normalization to continue in 2025 despite elevated policy uncertainty from incoming US administration. |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AZN, BEZ.L, BWY.L, CCC.L, COA.L, EXPN.L, HLMA.L, ITRK.L, KLR.L, OXIG.L | AI, diversification, gold, infrastructure, interest rates, Multi-Asset, Uk, value | - | T. Bailey's multi-asset funds capitalized on the Fed's pivot to growth support, with infrastructure and value holdings outperforming as market leadership broadened beyond technology. Strong performance from REITs, gold, and value-oriented equity funds offset AI theme weakness. Diversified positioning across geographies and asset classes provides attractive risk-adjusted opportunities as interest rate cuts support multiple sectors. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIThe fund holds the Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund which delivered strong returns of 11.99% in the quarter. Performance was driven by continued enthusiasm around AI adoption, though developments surrounding Anthropic's models created some pressure across software names. The fund's exposure to industrial AI beneficiaries helped offset weakness in software companies. |
Artificial Intelligence Software Industrial Technology Automation |
Emerging marketsThe fund maintains significant exposure to emerging markets through holdings like Merlin Fidelis Emerging Markets Fund. These markets benefited from a weaker dollar and stronger balance sheets relative to developed-market peers early in the quarter, but were later impacted by energy price volatility due to their import-dependent nature. |
Emerging Markets Asia Dollar Energy Imports | |
JapanJapan was a particular standout early in the quarter through holdings like Zennor Japan Equity Income Fund. Prime Minister Takaichi's parliamentary supermajority reinforced confidence in expansionary fiscal agenda and corporate governance reforms. However, Japan's reliance on imported energy remained a key vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. |
Japan Corporate Governance Fiscal Policy Energy Reforms | |
GoldGold exposure through iShares Physical Gold ETC delivered a 9.15% return despite counterintuitive behavior during geopolitical tensions. The metal was supported by central bank buying and safe-haven demand early in the quarter but failed to maintain defensive characteristics during the Iran conflict, with selling driven by profit-taking and a stronger US dollar. |
Gold Safe Haven Central Banks Dollar Geopolitical | |
EnergyEnergy markets experienced the largest supply disruption in living memory due to US and Israeli strikes on Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recorded its largest monthly gain on record, ending above $110 per barrel. This created significant volatility and particularly impacted energy-importing regions and economies. |
Energy Oil Iran Geopolitical Supply | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI continued to dominate investor attention but focus shifted from growth potential to questions of profitability and capital discipline. Oracle's December profit warning and data-centre project delays intensified scrutiny of near-term monetisation. Despite this, AI-exposed strategies performed well with Polar Capital AI Fund returning 6.58%. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Infrastructure Profitability |
GoldGold surged above US$4,300 per ounce in October, experienced one of its steepest single-day declines in years on 21 October, then recovered to reach a new high above US$4,500 in December. Gold contributed strongly to portfolio performance supported by favourable macro environment and uncertain geopolitical backdrop. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Commodities | |
CopperCopper led performance within multi-asset portfolios, advancing 16.57% over the quarter. Following July correction driven by tariff-related volatility, copper stabilised and rebuilt momentum through Q4. The move was underpinned by structurally tight supply-demand backdrop and disruption risk across key producing regions. |
Industrial Metals Commodities Supply Chain | |
HealthcareHealthcare exposure was among standout contributors to performance. Ongoing scrutiny of drug pricing and clearer reform momentum helped reduce perceived policy risk. Polar Capital Healthcare Opportunities rose 7.2% supported by constructive backdrop, attractive valuations versus equities, and renewed confidence in innovation-led growth. |
Pharmaceuticals Medical Devices Innovation | |
Trade PolicyTrade tensions stayed elevated despite a truce. Threatened tariff escalation in October gave way to one-year US-China tariff truce after late-October talks, easing near-term supply-chain risk but left strategic issues unresolved. Stockpiling activity provided support as market participants hedged against further tariff uncertainty. |
Tariffs China Supply Chain | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI-driven rally led by US megacaps shows growing concentration risk. NVIDIA evolved from enabler to financier, announcing $100bn investment in OpenAI and $5bn in Intel. The AI story entered a new chapter with vendor-financing and leverage replacing innovation as expansion drivers. |
NVIDIA OpenAI Hyperscalers Data Centers Semiconductors |
GoldGold climbed relentlessly through the quarter, surpassing $3,800 per ounce to set fresh record highs. Its strength captured growing unease over debt, deficits, and erosion of institutional independence, serving as both protective holding and strategic diversifier. |
Safe Haven Inflation Hedge Central Banks Monetary Policy Precious Metals | |
Emerging MarketsAsia ex-Japan delivered strongest regional returns for sterling-based investors. China introduced fresh stimulus measures for consumer spending and housing market. Emerging markets outperformed supported by softer US dollar and easing inflationary pressures. |
China Asia Currency Stimulus Valuations | |
HealthcareHealthcare companies repositioned down the cap scale toward businesses less exposed to policy risk. The sector benefits from powerful secular drivers including aging population and rising global healthcare demand, trading at discount despite superior earnings growth. |
Demographics Policy Risk Valuations Secular Growth Innovation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI-led productivity gains are real and technology focused funds like Polar Capital AI rebounded strongly in Q2. The fund takes a broader approach including allocations to industrials positioned as AI adoption beneficiaries. Sharp recoveries in AI enablers like Nvidia and Microsoft drove V-shaped price action from Q1 to Q2. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Productivity Nvidia Microsoft |
CybersecurityFirst Trust Cybersecurity benefited from heightened geopolitical tensions and increased military activity globally, as cyber warfare plays an increasingly critical role in modern conflict. The Israel/Iran conflict intensified focus on digital warfare, prompting increased investment in cyber defence across public and private sectors. |
Cyber Defense Digital Warfare Geopolitical Security Technology | |
Defense SpendingRising European defence spending provided a powerful tailwind for industrials, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed commitments from NATO members to meet or exceed 2% defence spending targets. This has driven sustained demand across the defence value chain. |
NATO Military Geopolitical European Industrial | |
DiversificationDiversification and active management are re-emerging as critical tools for navigating uncertainty, capturing selective opportunities, and avoiding over-concentration risks. The need for portfolio diversification to broaden beyond a US centric model into non-US equities, real assets and alternative assets is emphasized. |
Portfolio Risk Management Global Assets Active Management | |
ValueUK market valuations remain appealing with potential rate cuts ahead. International markets are more reasonably priced relative to their history while US equities trade well ahead of their long-run average. Value-focused approaches like Havelock Global benefited from emphasis on attractively priced small and mid-cap companies. |
Valuation UK Market International Small Cap Mid Cap | |
Infrastructure SpendingPublic sector investment continues to rise with Morgan Sindall Group benefiting from strong earnings and growth in its infrastructure division. European governments are looking to increase their investment spending on infrastructure, creating attractive risk/reward opportunities. |
Public Sector Construction European Government Investment | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's unpredictable tariff policies unsettled global markets, contributing to heightened volatility and early fears of stagflation. His approach of intermittently announcing tariffs, particularly targeting China and North American trading partners, undermined investor confidence and triggered sharp market swings. The potential 25% tariff on copper imports has driven US copper futures to record highs, as buyers rush to secure supply before the tariffs take effect. |
Tariffs China Volatility Stagflation Trade |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense spending surged following significant policy shifts. The deadlock in US-Ukraine aid discussions, combined with US pressure on NATO members to boost their military budgets intensified focus on defense investment. Germany's launch of a €500 billion infrastructure and defense spending program boosted regional confidence. |
NATO Ukraine Military Infrastructure Europe | |
CopperCopper prices surged over 20%, driven by infrastructure optimism and supply-demand trends. Unlike equities, copper has seen significant gains due to the impending tariffs under Trump's trade policy as buyers rush to secure supply before they take effect. Long-term supply and demand dynamics remain a key driver, fueled by the global energy transition and ongoing upgrades to grid infrastructure. |
Infrastructure Energy Transition Grid Supply Demand | |
GoldGold reached record highs as a safe-haven asset amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. The gold price continued to achieve new highs through the quarter, supported by central bank diversification away from the US dollar, investor demand for inflation hedging and geopolitical risk management. Gold's performance reflects ongoing concerns over persistent inflation, which have been further exacerbated by tariffs. |
Safe Haven Inflation Central Banks Dollar Geopolitical | |
AINew cost-effective AI models, such as China's DeepSeek, garnered attention and prompted a re-evaluation of high valuations for US technology stocks. The fund remains constructive on the AI theme but sees the benefits expanding into other sectors like Healthcare, Insurance, and Industrials. AI hyperscalers have unwound following the introduction of more efficient AI models. |
DeepSeek Technology Valuations Healthcare Insurance | |
Infrastructure SpendingGermany's launch of a €500 billion infrastructure and defense spending program boosted regional confidence, leading to strong performance in cyclically sensitive sectors. European governments are looking to increase their investment spending on infrastructure and defense, creating attractive risk/reward opportunities given both the valuation on an absolute and relative basis. |
Germany Cyclical Investment Valuation Europe | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIThe fund holds exposure to artificial intelligence through Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence fund, which recovered after a challenging prior quarter. The manager continues to monitor the Magnificent 7's ability to effectively capitalise on AI technology to generate meaningful returns. AI benefits are expanding into other sectors like Healthcare, Insurance, and Industrials. |
Technology Growth Innovation Semiconductors Software |
GoldGold performed well during the quarter due to its favourable positioning amidst modestly declining yet persistent inflation and more accommodative monetary policy. The manager views gold primarily as a portfolio diversifier and alternative currency rather than an inflation hedge. Central banks' continued desire to diversify foreign exchange holdings supports the outlook. |
Commodities Diversification Inflation Currency Central Banks | |
CybersecurityThe fund holds First Trust Cybersecurity ETF which provides exposure to companies providing critical infrastructure essential for safeguarding data and networks. This aligns with the digitisation theme and has benefited from developments in AI. The holding is currently under review to ensure valuations remain justified. |
Technology Security Infrastructure Data Networks | |
Energy TransitionThe fund divested from Schroder Energy Transition across all T. Bailey funds as short-term prospects for companies aligned with this theme became more challenging following the US presidential election outcome. However, the fund retains exposure to the energy transition theme through investments in copper. |
Renewable Copper Climate Policy Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q3 |
InfrastructureThe fund introduced VT Gravis UK Infrastructure Fund, recognizing that softening interest rates would benefit closed-ended infrastructure funds trading at wide discounts. Infrastructure and property exposure through Impact Healthcare REIT and Urban Logistics provided strong returns as the sector recovers from a low base. |
Infrastructure REITs Discounts Interest Rates Property |
AIThe fund maintains exposure to artificial intelligence through Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund, though this was the largest detractor to performance. The manager recognizes a shift from large-cap technology enablers toward companies that can benefit from AI adoption across sectors like healthcare, insurance, and industrials. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Healthcare Insurance Industrials | |
ValueWith the shift in market leadership, value equities began to perform as large-cap US technology stocks underperformed. The fund benefited from value-conscious approaches through holdings like Ranmore Global Equity and WS Havelock Global Select funds. |
Value Market Leadership Technology Undervalued Equity | |
GoldThe fund's allocation to gold via iShares Physical Gold ETF delivered strong returns and acts as both a diversifier and alternative currency. Gold exposure more than compensated for softening in copper allocation and provides diversification benefits given elevated correlations. |
Gold Diversifier Currency Physical Correlations |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | PCGH LN | Pantheon Capital Growth Trust | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | diversification, growth, NAV discount, private equity, valuation | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CHRY LN | Chrysalis Investments Limited | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, discounts, Fintech, growth, IPOs, NAV, Privateequity, valuation | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CHRY LN | Chrysalis | Financials | Closed-End Funds | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, discount, Liquidity, NAV, private equity | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CIBR | First Trust Cyber Security ETF | Financials | Exchange-Traded Funds | Bull | NASDAQ | cybersecurity, Defense, Geopolitics, Software, Threat Detection | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
