| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 4.8% | - |
The third quarter of 2025 demonstrated market resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainty, with a globally diversified 60/40 portfolio gaining 4.8%. U.S. markets continued their steady climb with the S&P 500 returning 8%, driven by Fed rate cuts and AI-driven spending in mega-cap technology companies. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September, signaling potential for two more cuts in 2025 while balancing economic growth against inflation concerns and a softening job market. Gold emerged as a standout performer, rising 16% in the quarter and 45% year-to-date, reaching record highs amid economic uncertainty. International markets also posted strong gains with China rallying 21% on policy support and improving sentiment. However, challenges remain including stalled labor market growth with unemployment rising to 4.3%, oil price volatility, and various geopolitical risks. The investment team recommends avoiding cash given falling returns, reducing mega-cap exposure through diversification, and maintaining disciplined portfolio alignment with long-term goals as multiple factors could influence fourth quarter performance.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, markets showed resilience in Q3 2025 with continued gains driven by Fed rate cuts, AI enthusiasm, and strong corporate earnings, though investors should maintain diversification and avoid complacency as multiple risks and catalysts could influence Q4 performance.
The end of 2025 will likely continue to bring unexpected changes with several key factors to watch including Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, corporate earnings from mega-cap tech, labor market softening, geopolitical tensions, international market shifts, 2026 midterm elections, and potential government shutdown impacts.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, diversification, Fed, gold, Markets, rates | - | Q3 2025 showed market resilience with 8% S&P 500 gains driven by Fed rate cuts and AI enthusiasm. Gold surged 16% to record highs while unemployment rose to 4.3%. Key risks include labor market softening and geopolitical tensions. Recommendations include avoiding cash, diversifying away from mega-caps, and maintaining disciplined portfolio positioning for Q4 uncertainties. |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, consumer, growth, policy, technology, Trade | - | Consumer resilience and big tech AI investment drive 2025 market performance despite policy uncertainty. The Mag 7 grew earnings 28% while investing $200 billion in AI infrastructure. Pro-growth policies may offset trade headwinds in H2. Key lesson: tune out headline noise, stay invested, and position portfolios for tech-driven growth opportunities. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI-driven spending in mega-cap tech contributed to market gains with the S&P 500 returning 8% in Q3. U.S. stocks soared to record highs on renewed artificial intelligence enthusiasm, with emerging market equities in China also benefiting as investors looked for other AI opportunities. |
Technology Mega Cap China Emerging Markets |
RatesThe Fed cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.5%-4.25% to 4.25%-4% in mid-September, the first cut of the year. The Fed signaled two more rate cuts could be on the horizon for 2025 as it balances rate cuts with economic growth, inflation concerns, and a softening job market. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Growth | |
GoldGold continued its momentum, rising another 16% in Q3, bringing the year-to-date gain to 45%. Gold reached record highs, driven by economic uncertainty. Foreign central banks are reducing treasury allocations and buying more gold, now holding more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. |
Central Banks Economic Uncertainty Commodities Safe Haven | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ResilienceConsumer resilience has weathered policy uncertainty with wage growth consistently outpacing price growth since mid-2023. Personal income rose 0.7% in April, helping consumers strengthen balance sheets and sustain higher spending levels. This powerful engine continues to drive the economy despite trade policy concerns. |
Consumer Wages Income Spending Balance Sheets |
AIBig tech companies are investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure, with the Mag 7 on track to spend around $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025. This massive investment in AI and cloud computing helps explain high valuations and supports long-term growth prospects. |
Infrastructure Investment Cloud Valuations Growth | |
Trade PolicyPolicy uncertainty around trade has been front and center this year, with potential cumulative effects on labor markets and growth on the horizon. However, pro-growth policies like tax cuts and deregulation are being discussed as possible catalysts to offset impacts from trade tensions and tariffs. |
Uncertainty Tariffs Tax Cuts Deregulation Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
