| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Brandon Beylo presents solar as an emerging Trifecta Lens Thematic opportunity driven by geopolitical supply chain risks and Energy Security policies. China controls 93% of polysilicon production and over 90% of the entire solar value chain, creating unprecedented dependency that becomes problematic in the current Multi-Polar World regime. The Foreign Entity of Concern rules requiring 40-60% non-Chinese sourcing by 2030, combined with national security concerns about Chinese backdoors in solar equipment, are forcing supply chain bifurcation. Beylo focuses on Wacker Chemie, a German chemicals company with the only major US polysilicon facility capable of high-volume production. Trading at cycle lows around 51x NTM EBIT, WCH could become a geopolitical monopoly worth $5-12 billion if China decoupling accelerates. The thesis centers on bombed-out manufacturers, early bull cycle technicals, and negative sentiment creating asymmetric risk/reward as Energy Security At All Costs policies reshape investment dynamics away from lowest-cost solutions toward domestically dependable supply chains.
Solar represents an asymmetric opportunity in a Multi-Polar World where Energy Security trumps cost efficiency, creating value in Western supply chain assets as China's dominance becomes a liability rather than an advantage.
The manager expects solar to become a major investment theme driven by Energy Security policies and supply chain bifurcation from China. He anticipates demand inflection coinciding with Western supply chain development, creating opportunities in bombed-out US and allied solar companies. The outlook is contingent on continued geopolitical tensions and policy support for domestic energy security.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21 2026 | 2026 Q1 | GLW, WCH.XTE | China, Critical Minerals, energy security, FEOC, Geopolitical, Polysilicon, Solar, Supply Chain | WCH.XTE | Solar emerges as asymmetric opportunity in Multi-Polar World where Energy Security trumps cost efficiency. China's 93% polysilicon dominance becomes liability as FEOC rules force supply chain bifurcation. Wacker Chemie trades at cycle lows but owns only major US polysilicon facility, potentially worth 3-4x current market cap as geopolitical monopoly in decoupling scenario. |
| Oct 24 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BCM.V, BTBT, CAN, CORZ, DMET.CSE, KUYA.CSE, NEWP | Bitcoin, Breakouts, commodities, crypto, Mining, Relative Strength, Silver |
CAN BTBT CORZ NEWP CAN BTBT CORZ NEWP |
Macro Ops is up 50% YTD, focusing on relative strength leaders in crypto mining and precious metals. Bitcoin miners like WGMI are in lockout rallies while silver miners outperform with junior names leading. Multiple technical breakouts from multi-year bases present opportunities in companies transitioning from developers to producers, with catalysts including Bitcoin above $125K and $40 silver. |
| Jul 23 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMTM, APM.TO, IDR.TO, IPI, MP, NICU.TO, RHM.DE, RKLB, UBER, VLE.TO | crypto, defense, Futures Trading, Mining, risk management, Trifecta Lens | - | Macro Ops delivered 9.91% in Q2 through multi-asset trading, with futures generating bulk returns while equity book faced challenges. Successful risk management included timely de-risking and re-entry, though stop-loss errors on defense and mining positions provided learning opportunities. Portfolio maintains concentrated thematic exposure to defense, critical minerals, and crypto through disciplined Trifecta Lens framework. |
| May 2 2025 | 2025 Q1 | IDR, LLY, RHM.DE, VLE.TO | defense, energy, Europe, gold, Mining, oil, value |
RHM.DE IDR VLE.TO |
Macro Ops generated 13.87% Q1 returns through concentrated positions in Rheinmetall (European defense spending), Idaho Strategic (undervalued gold miner), and Valeura Energy (oil producer). Minimal trading activity and patient capital deployment in quality businesses with secular tailwinds drove outperformance versus S&P 500's -4.59% decline. Disciplined risk management maintained through selective profit-taking. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
SolarSolar is becoming a Trifecta Lens Thematic with bombed-out manufacturers due to Chinese oversupply, early bull cycle technicals, and negative sentiment from value investors. The manager sees solar as bipartisan and vital for US energy security in a Multi-Polar World where supply chain bifurcation creates opportunities for US-allied companies. |
Solar Energy Security Supply Chain Polysilicon FEOC |
ChinaChina dominates 93% of polysilicon production and 90%+ of the entire solar value chain, creating dependency risks. The manager views this as unsustainable in the current geopolitical environment and sees potential for supply chain decoupling, especially if China moves on Taiwan. |
China Supply Chain Geopolitical Risk Taiwan Decoupling | |
Energy SecurityEnergy Security At All Costs macro environment drives policy changes like FEOC rules requiring 40-60% non-Chinese sourcing. The manager believes this creates a new regime where safety and domestic dependability matter more than lowest cost, fundamentally changing investment dynamics. |
Energy Security FEOC Domestic Supply Policy National Security | |
Critical MineralsThe manager draws parallels between solar and rare earths, noting China's even greater control over solar supply chains. Polysilicon is highlighted as having no practical substitute in crystalline silicon modules, making it strategically important for Western supply chain independence. |
Critical Minerals Polysilicon Supply Chain Strategic Materials | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CryptoBitcoin miners are experiencing a lockout rally with WGMI up 48% over the past month. The tape suggests Bitcoin is heading higher despite calls for a top. Multiple mini-consolidations are occurring within WGMI holdings, presenting actionable setups in companies like Canaan, Bit Digital, and Core Scientific. |
Bitcoin Mining Blockchain Digital Assets Cryptocurrency |
Silver MinersSilver miners are showing strong performance with SIL up 24% over the past month and many names up multiple times that amount. Silver juniors are starting to outperform mid-to-senior producers and are outperforming gold juniors, indicating a healthy silver miner bull market with actionable setups in companies like New Pacific Metals. |
Silver Precious Metals Mining Juniors Commodities | |
Junior MinersJunior miners are showing strong relative strength with SILJ outperforming senior producers. Multiple junior mining companies are breaking out of multi-year bases, including Bear Creek Mining, Kuya Silver, and Denarius Metals, representing left-for-dead developer-turned-miner opportunities. |
Junior Mining Development Production Exploration Small Cap | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DefenseEuropean Defense thesis continues to play out with Rheinmetall rising 33% during the quarter. National Defense thematic includes positions like Amentum Holdings and represents 23% of portfolio exposure through Aerospace & Defense sector allocation. |
Defense Spending European Defense Government Contractors Military |
Critical MineralsRare earth elements trade driven by China's export ban on critical raw materials. MP Materials positioned as REE exposure despite processing agreements with China. Metals & Mining represents 36% of portfolio exposure. |
Rare Earths REE China Export Ban Strategic Materials | |
CryptoiShares Bitcoin represents the largest position at 19% of the portfolio, indicating significant exposure to cryptocurrency markets. |
Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Digital Assets | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense spending expected to increase from 2% to 3% of GDP driven by Trump administration demands, creating EUR 100B in additional annual spending through 2028. Rheinmetall positioned as primary beneficiary as largest German defense company and leading Ukraine partner. |
Defense Europe Military Spending Rheinmetall |
Gold MinersIdaho Strategic represents exceptional value with tier-1 jurisdiction, fortress balance sheet, and pathway to 60,000oz annual production. Company trades at significant discount to asset value despite having rare earth elements package potentially worth entire market cap. |
Gold Mining Production REE Idaho | |
OilValeura Energy positioned as undervalued Canadian oil producer with $259M cash, no debt, and $400M in tax losses. Recent oil price volatility led to profit-taking despite strong fundamentals and management quality. |
Oil Energy Thailand Cash Valuation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Macro ops | WCH.XTE | Wacker Chemie | Other | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | - | China decoupling, Cyclical, Energy security, geopolitical, Polysilicon, semiconductors, Solar, specialty chemicals, strategic asset, US Manufacturing, Value | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | CAN | Canaan Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | Bitcoin, Breakout, Mining, Momentum, semiconductors, Speculative | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | CAN | Canaan Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | Bitcoin, Breakout, Mining, Momentum, semiconductors, Speculative | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | BTBT | Bit Digital Inc. | Financials | Software & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Bitcoin, Breakout, data centers, infrastructure, Mining | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | BTBT | Bit Digital Inc. | Financials | Software & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Bitcoin, Breakout, data centers, infrastructure, Mining | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | CORZ | Core Scientific Inc. | Information Technology | Data Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | Breakout, Digital Assets, HPC, infrastructure, Mining, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | NEWP | New Pacific Metals Corp. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | Bolivia, Breakout, IRR, Mining, Permitting, Silver | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | CORZ | Core Scientific Inc. | Information Technology | Data Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | Breakout, Digital Assets, HPC, infrastructure, Mining, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brandon Beylo | NEWP | New Pacific Metals Corp. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | Bolivia, Breakout, IRR, Mining, Permitting, Silver | Login |
| May 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Macro ops | VLE.TO | Valeura Energy | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canadian, cash-rich, Commodity Cycle, debt-free, insider ownership, Oil & Gas, risk management, Share Buyback, Tax Losses, Thailand | Login |
| May 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Macro ops | RHM.DE | Rheinmetall AG | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | XETRA | Aerospace & Defense, Defense, European, geopolitical, Germany, Government Spending, Military, NATO, Secular tailwind, Ukraine | Login |
| May 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Macro ops | IDR | Idaho Strategic Resources | Materials | Gold | Bull | NYSE American | Fortress Balance Sheet, Gold, Idaho, Mining, organic growth, Precious Metals, production growth, Rare earth elements, REE, Tier-1 Jurisdiction | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| WCH.XTE | WCH is a $5B chemicals company specializing in polysilicon and silicon manufacturing. The company is globally recognized as a leading producer of hyper-pure semiconductor-grade polysilicon, claiming to supply material for one in every two microchips worldwide. It operates the only U.S. site with a fully integrated closed-loop system that recycles byproducts into other chemicals. WCH's Charleston facility is currently the only major U.S. facility capable of high-volume, hyper-pure electronic-grade polysilicon. The Charleston site is one of those assets. It produces approximately 20,000 metric tons of high-purity polysilicon annually. WCH would become a geopolitical monopoly provider for the Western alliance. With the Chinese supply cut off, Wacker and Hemlock Semiconductor would be the only major producers left standing for the West. Wacker could likely charge large premiums over current prices as Western solar manufacturers would have no other choice if they want to maintain production. |
| GLW | Hemlock Semiconductor (a division of Corning (GLW)) |
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