| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 46.2% | -15% | -15% |
Crypto Native Capital maintains a defensive stance six months into the crypto bear market, with Bitcoin down 45% and the fund holding 40% cash in T-bills. The manager argues current conditions align with historical bear market patterns that typically last one year with 70%+ drawdowns, emphasizing that the second half causes most investor pain. The fund's cash position grew from 25% to 40% without additional sales as crypto prices declined, providing both downside protection and future deployment capacity. Management criticizes digital asset treasury companies as leveraged vehicles with misaligned executive compensation, citing specific examples where management profits despite shareholder losses. The framework for re-entry requires Bitcoin to reclaim and sustain above its 200-day moving average, ideally coinciding with a capitulation event. The manager emphasizes patience over activity, viewing current conditions as requiring capital preservation rather than opportunistic buying. The defensive positioning reflects conviction that bear market dynamics remain intact despite periodic rallies that historically confuse investors.
Crypto bear markets follow predictable patterns requiring patience and defensive positioning until clear technical and sentiment signals indicate cycle bottom, with current 40% cash allocation providing capital preservation and future deployment optionality.
Manager expects bear market to continue following historical precedent of roughly one-year duration with 70%+ total drawdowns. Currently six months into cycle with Bitcoin down 45%. Emphasizes patience and defensive positioning until clear technical and sentiment signals indicate regime change. Cash position provides optionality for aggressive deployment when conditions improve.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BMNR, BRR | Bear Market, Bitcoin, Cash, crypto, cycle, Defensive, Treasury | - | Crypto Native Capital holds 40% cash during ongoing bear market, expecting continued downside following historical patterns of 70%+ drawdowns over one year. Six months into cycle with Bitcoin down 45%. Framework for re-entry requires sustained recovery above 200-day moving average. Criticizes digital asset treasury companies for misaligned incentives. Emphasizes patience over premature deployment. |
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Accumulation, Bitcoin, Cash, crypto, Cycles, Defensive, risk management | - | Fund down 20% in Q4 but outperformed broader crypto selloff through defensive positioning. Shifting to Bitcoin-only strategy based on data showing 1-in-70 odds for altcoins beating Bitcoin. Manager believes cycle correction may have begun in October, positioning with two-thirds Bitcoin, one-third cash for potential year-long reset period. |
| Oct 21 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BABA, MSTR, VEON, YHOO | Bitcoin, Cash, crypto, Cycles, DATs, Defensive, Leverage | - | Crypto fund shifting defensive with 25% cash target as bitcoin cycle approaches historical peak 18 months post-April 2024 halving. Digital Asset Treasury companies represent dangerous late-cycle excess with compressed premiums creating forced selling pressure. Exiting altcoins, consolidating to bitcoin and cash to capitalize on expected 50-65% correction and buy from distressed sellers. |
| Jul 28 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, BRK-A, COST, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | Bitcoin, Compounding, Concentration, crypto, moats, returns | BTC-USD | Crypto fund returned 22.3% in Q2 2025, underperforming Bitcoin's 30.6% but outpacing the S&P 500's 10.6%. Manager advocates concentrated Bitcoin exposure over diversified crypto, citing expanding moats and superior risk-adjusted returns. Investment returns are highly concentrated across markets, with Bitcoin dominating digital store-of-value. Fund positioned for Bitcoin's four-year cycle reset to increase holdings. |
| Feb 26 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CLSK, COIN, HUT, IBIT, MARA, MSTR, RIOT, SQ, TSLA | Bitcoin, Blockchain, crypto, Digital assets, ETFs, Institutional, regulation | - | Crypto Native Capital gained 26.7% in Q4 as Bitcoin ETFs drove mainstream adoption. Bitcoin maintains the strongest crypto moat while smart contract platforms face ongoing competition. Political winds favor crypto innovation with bipartisan support. Corporate and sovereign Bitcoin accumulation accelerates. Portfolio positioned in leading platforms including Solana, Bitcoin, and Ethereum reflecting competitive dynamics. |
| Nov 13 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Bitcoin, Bull Market, crypto, Cycles, Halving | - | Crypto fund positioning for new bull cycle driven by April 2024 Bitcoin halving. Supply shock from halving cuts new issuance in half while potential ETF approvals boost demand. Manager sees predictable 4-year cycles making crypto more structured than traditional markets. Despite Q3 underperformance, believes current positioning marks cycle trough with upward trajectory ahead. |
| Aug 21 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | Bear Market, Bitcoin, Blockchain, crypto, Digital assets, Ethereum, Value Investing | - | Crypto Native Capital leverages analytical and behavioral advantages in volatile crypto markets through concentrated Bitcoin/Ethereum exposure and disciplined long-term investing. The fund underperformed in Q2 but maintains conviction in its approach, expecting outperformance as markets exit the bear phase and on-chain activity returns to favor riskier digital assets. |
| May 22 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Blockchain, crypto, Digital assets, regulation, SEC | - | Crypto fund weathered a volatile first year of blockchain collapses and fraud while maintaining focus on high-quality digital assets. Core thesis: crypto is transformative global technology requiring new regulation. Many countries embrace it thoughtfully while US regulatory hostility under SEC creates uncertainty. This represents temporary speed bump before eventual regulatory clarity unlocks significant value. |
| Jan 27 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 23 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 15 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
CryptoFund is positioned defensively in crypto bear market with 40% cash position. Manager expects bear market to continue following historical patterns of 70%+ drawdowns over roughly one year. Currently six months into cycle with Bitcoin down 45%. Framework for re-entry includes Bitcoin reclaiming 200-day moving average with sustained recovery. |
Bitcoin Bear Market Cycle Cash Defensive |
Risk AppetiteManager maintains extremely defensive positioning with growing cash allocation from 25% to 40%. Emphasizes patience over activity during bear market conditions. Warns that second half of bear markets typically cause most pain as investors falsely believe worst is over after initial 50% decline. |
Cash Defensive Patience Bear Market Volatility | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process over three years, serving as force multipliers for human judgment rather than replacements. The firm uses AI tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code for efficiency and risk analysis. While acknowledging AI's transformative potential, they believe current market narratives swing to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Automation Technology Research Tools |
SoftwareSoftware companies face structural headwinds from AI lowering barriers to entry and increasing customer bargaining power. Many companies have been running with excess headcount and may experience pricing pressure that can be countered with lower costs to serve. The market is pricing in these headwinds as evidenced by significant downward re-rating of major financial data and software providers. |
Software Technology Pricing Pressure Competition Barriers to Entry | |
SemiconductorsLattice Semiconductor represents an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. The company's focus on efficiency rather than maximal performance positions it favorably for AI servers, particularly in security functions as Root of Trust chips. FPGAs are valuable for security due to their programmability and ability to chase moving targets. |
Semiconductors FPGAs AI Infrastructure Security Efficiency | |
LogisticsAmazon's logistical prowess represents one of the foremost moats in business that can be enhanced with AI through better orchestration of logistics assets and buildout of more sophisticated robotics. Amazon is uniquely positioned to dominate the coordination layer across its entire logistics network with AI's help. |
Logistics Supply Chain Automation Robotics Coordination | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CryptoBitcoin cycles are predictable with halvings every four years driving supply constraints and price appreciation. The fund expects this cycle to peak around 18 months post-halving (through year-end), with historical patterns suggesting a 50-65% correction is likely. Digital Asset Treasury companies represent dangerous late-cycle excess, using leverage disguised as innovation. |
Bitcoin Ethereum Solana Halving Cycles |
Capital MarketsDigital Asset Treasury companies have become the dominant crypto buyers, purchasing twice as much bitcoin as ETFs in 2025. These companies sell $1 of crypto for $2 in public markets through premium valuations, but premiums are compressing significantly with most now trading at discounts to NAV. This represents late-cycle excess similar to previous leverage vehicles. |
DATs Premium NAV Leverage ETFs | |
Risk AppetiteThe fund is shifting to defensive positioning with 25% cash target, recognizing signs of market excess including too much optimism, limited risk aversion, and excessive capital availability. This defensive stance reflects humility about timing while maintaining conviction about crypto assets long-term. |
Defensive Cash Excess Positioning Volatility | |
| 2025 Q2 |
CryptoBitcoin dominates the digital store-of-value market with 99.6% market share and expanding moats that strengthen with scale. While altcoins face structural competition and constant pressure to innovate, Bitcoin compounds relentlessly with superior risk-adjusted returns. The fund emphasizes Bitcoin concentration over diversified crypto approaches. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Digital Assets Store of Value Blockchain |
ConcentrationReturns in both equity and crypto markets are highly concentrated, with 4% of all listed companies generating the entire net gain of the US stock market from 1926-2016. The Magnificent Seven comprised 1.4% of S&P 500 components but contributed 62% of total returns in 2023. This concentration has increased over time. |
Market Concentration Power Laws Magnificent Seven Return Distribution | |
MoatsExpanding moats that grow stronger over time are rare but essential for compounding wealth. Bitcoin's moat expands with scale as it becomes a more trusted store of value, while Ethereum and other smart contract platforms have brittle moats due to open source nature, composability, and permissionless access creating intense competition. |
Competitive Advantage Network Effects Barriers to Entry Sustainable Returns | |
| 2024 Q4 |
CryptoThe fund focuses on cryptocurrency investments with Bitcoin ETFs marking crypto's mainstream adoption. Bitcoin has the strongest moat in crypto through decentralization and trust, while smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana face ongoing competition requiring constant innovation. |
Bitcoin Ethereum Solana Blockchain Digital Assets |
ETFsBitcoin ETFs transformed cryptocurrency from fringe technology to institutional asset class. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF accumulated $40B in 211 days, shattering previous ETF records and demonstrating massive institutional demand for crypto exposure through traditional investment vehicles. |
Bitcoin ETF IBIT Institutional Mainstream Adoption | |
| 2023 Q3 |
CryptoThe manager believes crypto is at the beginning of a new bull cycle driven by the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024. The halving will cut Bitcoin's inflation rate from 1.7% to 0.83%, creating a supply shock as miners have less bitcoin to sell while demand may increase from potential ETF approvals. This structural supply shock has historically kicked off boom phases every 4 years, making crypto cycles more predictable than traditional markets. |
Bitcoin Halving Supply Cycles ETFs |
| 2023 Q2 |
CryptoFund maintains concentrated exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum (75/25 split vs other digital assets). Manager expects portfolio to underperform Bitcoin during bear market depths but outperform as on-chain activity returns and markets exit bear phase. Focus on analytical advantages from using blockchains and understanding value accrual. |
Bitcoin Ethereum Blockchain Digital Assets Bear Market |
| 2023 Q1 |
CryptoThe fund focuses on digital assets in their infancy, weathering blockchain collapses and bankruptcies. Manager emphasizes crypto as a global technology requiring new legislation, with many countries passing thoughtful regulation while the US has become hostile under SEC chair Gary Gensler. |
Regulation Blockchain Digital Assets SEC Global |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BMNR | BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is one example. Tom Lee's compensation package totals up to $275 million over five years. On paper, it is tied to revenue growth, ETH accumulation targets, and stock price hurdles. In practice, roughly 84% of the package, about $230 million, can be earned even if the stock goes straight down, which it has done. Despite roughly $6.3 billion of unrealized losses on its ETH purchases, Lee remains on track to earn most of his 'performance-based' compensation. His incentive is asset accumulation at the expense of stock price. |
| BRR | ProCap Financial (BRR) offers a similar lesson. Anthony Pompliano has publicly framed the company's compensation structure as one where management only wins if shareholders win — writing that 'no longer will a CEO make millions if retail investors are losing.' The SEC filing tells a different story. Pompliano received 10.56 million shares for contributing assets financed entirely with investor capital — no personal capital at risk — followed by a token $1 million open-market buy to signal alignment. Another 9.5 million shares vest automatically in two years regardless of performance. Preferred equity investors who entered at $10 are down 80%. Even at the depressed price of $2/share, Pompliano still stands to make $40m. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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