| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Global markets experienced sharp declines in March as escalating conflict with Iran triggered widespread selloffs across asset classes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supply, sending crude prices above $118 per barrel and creating inflationary pressures that led the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady. U.S. equities fell 5.0% while international markets suffered steeper losses, with MSCI EAFE down 10.3% and emerging markets declining 13.1%. Fixed income offered limited diversification as Treasury yields rose on inflation concerns. Despite the turmoil, underlying growth drivers remain intact, with AI-driven capital expenditures supporting global expansion and central banks maintaining accommodative stances where possible. Private credit markets showed stress in software lending, though the broader asset class appears resilient. Markets rebounded late in the month on de-escalation signals, though uncertainty persists. The combination of geopolitical risk, energy price volatility, and divergent regional impacts creates a complex environment requiring careful navigation of both defensive positioning and selective opportunities.
Global markets face significant volatility from Iran conflict and oil supply disruptions, but underlying growth drivers from AI investment and potential policy easing provide support despite near-term uncertainty.
Markets expect oil supply disruptions to be temporary based on lower 12-month futures prices, though uncertainty remains high regarding sustained geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, China, Geopolitical, Iran, Markets, oil, private credit | - | Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure drove sharp March selloffs, with oil surging above $118 and global equities declining broadly. Fed held rates steady amid inflation concerns while AI-driven capex supports underlying growth. Private credit shows software sector stress but broader resilience. Late-month rebound on de-escalation hopes, though uncertainty remains elevated. |
| Jan 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 000660.KS, 005930.KS | diversification, Fed policy, fixed income, geopolitics, infrastructure, international, Precious Metals, small caps | - | Markets climbed the Wall of Worry in 2025 with the S&P 500 gaining 18% despite geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty. International equities outperformed with developed markets up 30% and emerging markets up 33%. Diversification proved valuable as leadership rotated across asset classes, with infrastructure and precious metals delivering strong returns while small caps surged from April lows. |
| Oct 13 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA | AI, China, Fed policy, Geopolitical, gold, rates, small caps, Valuations | - | Q3 2025 delivered strong market returns despite elevated valuations and geopolitical risks. U.S. growth remained robust at 3.8% while Fed cut rates 25bps with more easing ahead. AI hyperscalers dominate capex spending, small caps outperformed on rate cuts, and China surged 20%. Success depends on continued execution across growth, inflation control, and AI investment returns with little margin for error. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | MSFT, NVDA | AI, Cloud, Defense Spending, earnings, infrastructure, large cap, technology, Trade Policy | - | Q2 2025 saw remarkable market recovery with S&P 500 up 11% despite early tariff fears. Technology led gains as AI companies beat expectations, while tariff implementation delays and trade negotiations provided relief. Economic resilience continued with steady job growth and tame inflation. Key forward risks include fiscal-driven yield spikes and tariff inflation versus continued economic strength and Fed cuts. |
| Apr 11 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | China, Fed, Markets, rates, Recession, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Trump's tariff shock elevated recession risks to 45-60% and triggered March 2020-level volatility, but the US economy's strong foundation supports a soft landing base case. While a 90-day pause provided temporary relief, lasting uncertainty will impact business and consumer behavior. Moneta advocates maintaining disciplined long-term positioning through the turbulence. |
| Jan 13 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | AI, China, Elections, monetary policy, rates, tariffs, technology | - | Q4 2024 delivered mixed results as AI-driven US large caps dominated while international markets struggled with tariff concerns and rising rates. Trump's election victory creates optimism but policy uncertainty around tariffs and fiscal challenges remain key risks. Fed rate cuts disappointed expectations as inflation persisted. Balanced portfolios across asset classes and regions remain essential for navigating 2025's anticipated volatility. |
| Oct 17 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | China, Election, Fed policy, inflation, Market Rotation, rates, small caps | - | Historic quarter volatility masked strong broad-based returns as Fed cut rates 50bp and China announced stimulus. Market rotation favored Real Estate, Infrastructure, and Small Caps over previous leaders. Despite election uncertainty ahead, data supports staying invested rather than timing political outcomes. Inflation resurgence risk appears underappreciated given fiscal dynamics and wage pressures. |
| Jul 12 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, CSCO, GOOGL, INTC, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, UBER | AI, diversification, Economy, growth, large cap, Markets, technology | - | AI infrastructure stocks drove Q2 market gains with the S&P 500 up 15.3% year-to-date, led by technology giants. While global economic conditions stabilize, concentration risk and potential bubble dynamics warrant caution. Moneta advocates for diversified portfolios focused on long-term goals rather than chasing short-term AI winners, emphasizing opportunities in converging technology, science, and medicine sectors. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Economic Growth, Fed policy, inflation, Market Performance, rates, technology | - | Q1 2024 delivered strong US market performance with S&P 500 breaking 5,000 and AI driving technology leadership. Economic strength shifted Fed expectations from six rate cuts to less than two, while inflation remains sticky around 3%. Strong fundamentals support continued growth despite geopolitical tensions and election uncertainty. |
| Jan 12 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | Bitcoin, Bonds, Fed, gold, inflation, Markets, rates, Recession | - | Markets staged a remarkable fourth quarter rally as inflation retreated and the Fed signaled an end to rate hikes, driving bond yields sharply lower and equity risk appetite higher. While economic fundamentals remain strong, geopolitical tensions from Middle East conflicts and 2024 election uncertainty present headwinds that could challenge the recent market exuberance. |
| Oct 19 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | equities, Fed policy, fixed income, inflation, rates, Recession, technology | - | Moneta sees opportunity in a market dominated by tech concentration and higher rates. With inflation declining toward Fed targets but mortgage rates at 20-year highs, they favor overlooked sectors like utilities and healthcare while building inflation resilience through real assets. Geopolitical risks add volatility but economic fundamentals support selective equity optimism. |
| Jul 14 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | AI, Economy, growth, inflation, rates, Resilience, technology | - | The US economy proved anti-fragile in Q2 2023, with AI driving tech strength, inflation moderating to 3%, and the Fed pausing rate hikes at 5.25%. Employment remained solid despite regional banking stress. The key catalyst ahead is whether inflation's decline proves durable, determining future Fed policy and market direction. |
| Apr 26 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Banking, credit, Fed, inflation, liquidity, rates, Recession | - | Q1 2023 saw economic data defy recession fears until Silicon Valley Bank's collapse sparked banking sector concerns. While inflation trends downward and rate hikes near their end, systemic risks from banking stress and corporate over-extension warrant caution despite market recovery across asset classes. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices surged above $118 per barrel due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supply. West Texas Intermediate rose 51% while Brent crude increased over 60%, with regional price differences reflecting supply chain impacts. |
Oil Brent WTI Supply Hormuz |
GeopoliticalEscalating conflict with Iran triggered sharp global selloffs and heightened market uncertainty. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz created supply disruptions for multiple commodities, with markets later rebounding on signs of potential de-escalation. |
Iran Geopolitical Conflict Uncertainty Tensions | |
Private CreditThe average bid for software loans declined meaningfully, with software representing 13% of the private credit market. While non-software loans also experienced declines, the impact was less severe, highlighting uneven pressure across the asset class. |
Private Credit Software Loans Bids Pressure | |
AIAI-driven capital expenditures are supporting global growth despite ongoing volatility. China appears increasingly concerned about lagging behind the U.S. in widespread AI adoption and innovation, highlighting competitive dynamics in this space. |
AI Capex Innovation China Competition | |
| 2025 Q4 |
OilThe region's long oil exposure contributed to meaningful underperformance relative to emerging markets in 2025. The outlook for 2026 suggests a continuation of lower oil prices, which remains a headwind for MENA markets. |
Oil Energy Commodities |
Infrastructure SpendingThe recalibration of ambitious giga-projects in Saudi Arabia signals a more pragmatic approach to capital spending and resource allocation. This shift enhances policy credibility and ensures sustainable public finances. |
Infrastructure Saudi Arabia Capital Spending | |
Capital MarketsCapital market relevance continues to be a priority for regional governments. This should translate into a broadly supportive market environment, characterized by investor-friendly policies and improved market investability. |
Capital Markets Policy Investability | |
LNGIn Qatar, the manager expects momentum to build later in the year as the country approaches its LNG windfall in 2027. This represents a visible growth catalyst for the Qatari market. |
LNG Qatar Natural Gas | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe ongoing AI-driven investment cycle continued to dominate earnings and capex trends, with five hyperscalers representing roughly 25% of the S&P 500 Index. These companies are projected to drive nearly three-quarters of total corporate capital expenditure growth over the next three years, though significant investment levels create concerns over sustainability and long-term returns. |
Hyperscalers Capex Investment Returns Sustainability |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September despite political pressure for deeper easing, described as a risk-management cut reflecting concern over softening labor markets. The Fed has penciled in two more rate cuts in 2025, with markets expecting cuts at October and December meetings. |
Fed Cuts Labor Policy Easing | |
Small CapsSmall cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks as the Fed cut rates and signaled more cuts, with the Russell 2000 Index outpacing the S&P 600 Index by more than 600 basis points year-to-date. Much of the rally was concentrated in lower-quality names, resulting in a junk rally as more than 40% of Russell 2000 constituents remain unprofitable. |
Russell Outperformance Quality Unprofitable Rally | |
GoldGold has been in a league of its own this year, up more than 47% and handily outperforming the broader commodity complex. The strength likely reflects safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical and policy risks, sustained central bank buying as the dollar's global standing softens, and momentum from investors drawn to recent gains. |
Safe-haven Central Dollar Geopolitical Momentum | |
ChinaChina saw a 20% gain over the quarter and is now up more than 40% year-to-date on broad earnings upgrades and improving liquidity. Non-U.S. equities continued their run of strong performance for the year, led by emerging markets with China as a standout performer. |
Earnings Liquidity Emerging Performance Upgrades | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTariff implementation delays and negotiations provided market relief after initial recession fears. Trump's tariff threats were dialed back with 90-day implementation delay allowing for negotiations. Trade deal optimism increased with UK deal and temporary China-US tariff relief. |
Tariffs Trade Negotiations China Policy |
AITechnology companies driving innovation, especially in AI, surprised to the upside despite DeepSeek concerns. Nvidia beat expectations by wide margin as customer commitment to AI spending and capital expenditures on computer systems remained strong. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Innovation Spending Growth | |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense spending expectations contributed to industrials sector outperformance. NATO commitments and increased defense spending expectations helped move European stocks higher during the quarter. |
Defense NATO Europe Military Spending | |
Infrastructure SpendingInfrastructure benefited from growing infrastructure spending needs, especially for data center and AI support. Infrastructure was up 10% for the quarter and nearly 15% year-to-date. |
Infrastructure Data Centers Spending Growth Investment | |
CloudMicrosoft announced higher-than-expected quarterly sales and profit growth as demand for cloud services remained robust despite economic concerns. Cloud services demand stayed strong throughout the quarter. |
Cloud Computing Services Demand Growth Technology | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump announced a 10% universal tariff on all imports plus reciprocal tariffs on certain countries, bringing the US effective tariff rate to 18-26%. A 90-day pause was announced on reciprocal tariffs except for China, where trade war tensions escalated with 145% US tariffs on Chinese imports and 125% Chinese tariffs on US imports. |
Tariffs China Imports Trade War Reciprocal |
VolatilityMarkets experienced dramatic swings with volatility levels reaching heights not seen since March 2020. Reactions have been binary, almost entirely related to President Trump's tariff comments, with the NASDAQ up 12%, S&P 500 up nearly 10% and Russell 2000 up nearly 9% on news of the 90-day pause. |
Market Swings Binary Reactions March 2020 Dramatic | |
RatesBond markets have been on a roller coaster with the 10-year Treasury whipsawed between lower yields on slower growth concerns and expectations for Fed easing, to higher yields as trade unwinding, federal deficits, and the dollar's safe haven status came under scrutiny. The Fed faces constraints from elevated inflation levels while trying to balance their dual mandate. |
Treasury Fed Easing Inflation Dual Mandate Yields | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIArtificial intelligence continued to drive significant capital flows into AI-focused startups and publicly traded companies. The tech sector was buoyed by AI advancements, with the Magnificent 7 stocks responsible for more than 50% of the S&P 500's gains in 2024. |
Technology Innovation Capital Flows Growth Semiconductors |
Trade PolicyTrump's proposed tariffs create uncertainty as investors grapple with how much are real versus negotiating tactics. Tariffs could raise revenue and bring jobs home but may lead to higher prices and retaliatory measures, with China expected to receive the brunt of increases. |
Tariffs China Inflation Supply Chain Geopolitics | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve began cutting rates with a surprise 50bp cut in September, but multiple resets occurred as employment stabilized and inflation moved higher. Markets are pricing in just two total rate cuts for 2025-2026, below Fed expectations. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Inflation Employment Treasury | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RatesFederal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points in September after gaining confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%. The sizeable cut surprised some who expected 25 basis points, but was received positively and provided relief to borrowers and global markets. |
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Monetary Policy Inflation Employment |
ChinaChina announced a coordinated stimulus effort in late September including lower rates, additional lending facilities to promote stock purchases, and help on homebuyer downpayments. While there was skepticism about impact without fiscal stimulus, the Hang Seng Index gained 22% over the quarter. |
Stimulus Monetary Policy Hang Seng Fiscal Policy Real Estate | |
Small CapsSmall cap stocks had particularly volatile performance as investors vacillated between recession fears and soft-landing expectations. The Russell 2000 benefited from expectations for lower rates, though it experienced significant swings throughout the quarter. |
Russell 2000 Volatility Rate Sensitivity Economic Outlook Rotation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI stocks dominated market performance with the Magnificent 7 posting 15.8% returns in Q2. Companies building AI infrastructure like chips, data centers, and servers are being rewarded, while those benefiting from productivity gains have yet to see market appreciation. The market is rewarding companies generating cashflow from AI rather than simply incorporating AI. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Cashflow Productivity Technology |
TechnologyTechnology sector led market gains with US Large Cap Growth stocks significantly outperforming. The Magnificent 7 stocks returned to prominence after a Q1 lull, driving the S&P 500's strong performance. Technology, science, and medicine are colliding with investment dollars flowing to real economy advances. |
Large Cap Growth Magnificent 7 Innovation Science Medicine | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIAI continues to dominate market attention with Nvidia up 82% year-to-date and market cap exceeding $2 trillion. The impact of AI on companies and business models remains at the forefront of earnings calls, though the full scope of disruptive impact across industries is unclear. |
Nvidia Technology Disruption Earnings Business Models |
RatesFed expectations shifted significantly with markets initially expecting six rate cuts in 2024, now down to less than two cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield rose over 30 basis points during the quarter as economic data surprised to the upside and inflation remained challenging. |
Federal Reserve Treasury Inflation Monetary Policy Economic Data | |
InflationConfidence grew that inflation was continuing its downward trajectory, though concerns emerged about it being stuck around 3%. Energy and food price pressures remained a nagging discomfort, and the March inflation print underscored the challenge of predicting and controlling inflation. |
Core Inflation Energy Food Economic Policy Price Pressures | |
| 2023 Q4 |
InflationInflation retreated significantly in 2023, with November numbers hovering just above 3%, aided by falling energy prices. The Federal Reserve expressed quiet confidence that their actions were having the desired effect on inflation, though they did not declare victory. |
Inflation Fed Energy |
RatesThe Federal Reserve suggested at their December meeting that they were unlikely to raise rates again in this cycle, noting evidence that interest rates were starting to crimp both consumer and corporate activity. Bond yields fell sharply in the fourth quarter, with the 10-year Treasury seeing around 100 basis points movement from its late October high. |
Fed Treasury Bonds | |
GoldGold saw rallies in the fourth quarter, which may have been a sign of concern around fiat currencies and the credit-worthiness of governments struggling with unprecedented debt loads, particularly after the U.S. credit rating was reduced by Fitch in August. |
Gold Currency Credit | |
CryptoBitcoin's popularity provided echoes of 2021 and proved difficult to fathom. Emerging Bitcoin ETF solutions approved in early January 2024 may have been harbingers of greater validity and acceptance, but evidence of exchange failures and value destruction remained commonplace, with Binance seeing crippling outflows in November 2023. |
Bitcoin ETFs Crypto | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationInflation showed a sharp decline in July with core inflation falling to 3% overall, coming tantalizingly close to the Fed's 2% target. The decline follows a two-stage pattern - gradual then sudden - similar to Hemingway's bankruptcy quote. However, volatility in energy prices and stubborn shelter costs will likely muddy future outcomes. |
Core Inflation Fed Target Energy Prices Shelter Costs CPI |
RatesInterest rates moved higher as robust economic data supported a 'higher for longer' environment. The Fed paused after 11 rate hikes, but transmission effects are still being felt. Mortgage rates are approaching 8% - highs not seen in over 20 years - with broader squeeze effects expected as debt refinances. |
Fed Rates Higher For Longer Mortgage Rates Refinancing Transmission | |
AIThe Magnificent Seven tech stocks, including AI-focused companies, showed dramatic outperformance versus the broader market. This concentration suggests investors are seeking safety in sectors that have worked well recently, rather than displaying true bull market adventurousness across sectors. |
Magnificent Seven Tech Concentration Market Leadership Performance FAANG | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIArtificial Intelligence moved from being a novelty to a technology that investors could grasp and envisage transforming workplaces and business models. The technology gained significant investor attention and contributed to strength in large-cap growth-oriented US equities. |
Technology Growth Transformation |
InflationInflation started to moderate with energy representing a negative contribution and food prices falling as supply chain issues subsided. The latest CPI came in at 3% for headline and 4.8% for core inflation, below expectations. |
CPI Commodities Energy Food | |
RatesThe Fed paused rate hikes in June, maintaining the Fed Funds rate at 5-5.25%. Broad consensus expects at least one and likely two further 0.25% rate hikes before end of 2023 with a higher-for-longer pattern expected. |
Fed Monetary Policy Hiking Policy | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Credit StressThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March sparked a crisis of confidence in regional banks due to asset-liability mismatches. Bank deposit stability remains a key concern as earnings season approaches, with fears of fragility in the banking complex driving flows into money market funds. |
Banking Deposits Regional Banks Financial Stability Credit Risk |
InflationInflation was expected to moderate in 2023 as supply chain dislocations worked through the system. Progress has been slow but inflation did start trending downward globally in the first part of the year, though this led to volatility around future interest rate trajectories. |
CPI Central Banks Rate Hikes Economic Data Price Pressures | |
RatesCentral banks remained focused on combating inflation with the Fed delivering its ninth consecutive rate rise in February. The yield curve remained inverted, suggesting markets expect future rate cuts despite central bank resolve to maintain hawkish stance. |
Federal Reserve Yield Curve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inversion |
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