Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.95% | -9.54% | -9.54% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.95% | -9.54% | -9.54% |
The Baird Chautauqua Global Growth Fund returned -9.54% in Q1 2026, underperforming the MSCI ACWI Index which returned -3.20%. The quarter was defined by overlapping macro shocks including the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, driving capital into physical assets while software and digital businesses faced historic repricing on AI disruption fears. Nearly two-thirds of underperformance was attributable to this combination of AI disruption fears and rotation into physical-asset sectors where the fund has minimal exposure. The manager responded decisively by exiting positions where long-term economics became opaque (Atlassian, Tata Consultancy) while maintaining conviction in mission-critical software (Constellation Software, Temenos) and concentrating capital in AI infrastructure beneficiaries like Taiwan Semiconductor. Key risks include the unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation determining stagflationary pressures and Fed policy constraints. The manager believes the valuation reset provides a compelling entry point for their five-year investment horizon, with international markets offering better valuations than elevated U.S. markets.
Focus on quality companies with strong competitive advantages, healthy profit margins, robust balance sheets, and consistent cash flow generation, particularly in AI infrastructure beneficiaries and mission-critical software systems, while capitalizing on the valuation reset created by market rotation away from capital-light platforms.
The manager enters Q2 navigating a more uncertain environment than at any point since the pandemic, with the Strait of Hormuz situation being the key variable determining whether stagflationary pressures fade or deepen. They believe the valuation reset provides a compelling entry point for their five-year investment horizon and remain confident in their selective approach emphasizing quality companies with strong competitive advantages.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 2026 | 2026 Q1 | ADYEN.AS, ASML, MU, SE, TEAM, TSM | AI, energy, growth, inflation, international, semiconductors, software, Trade Policy | - | Global Growth Fund fell 9.54% as AI disruption fears triggered historic software repricing while energy surged on Iran conflict. Manager decisively exited positions with opaque AI economics while doubling down on mission-critical software and AI infrastructure. Valuation reset creates compelling entry point for five-year horizon despite macro uncertainty from Hormuz closure and stagflationary pressures. |
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 2269.HK, 6098.T, 6954.T, ASML, BABA, BEKE, BEPC, CSU.TO, D05.SI, GALP.SW, GOOGL, INCY, LULU, MA, MU, PRX.AS, REGN, RYA.L, SCHW, SE, TEAM, TEMN.SW, TJX | AI, China, growth, international, rates, semiconductors, Trade Policy, value | - | Global Growth Fund outperformed in Q4 despite challenging environment for quality growth approach. International equities delivered strongest outperformance versus U.S. since GFC on dollar weakness and attractive valuations. AI infrastructure demand and trade tension de-escalation provided support. Fund maintains conviction-weighted quality growth strategy focused on secular trends, strong competitive advantages, and robust financials positioned to withstand external shocks. |
| Oct 13 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 2269.HK, 7269.T, ADYEN.AS, BABA, CP.TO, CSU.TO, FFH.TO, GMAB, GOOGL, LULU, MA, MU, NVO, OLED, PRX.AS, SAF.PA, TCS.NS, TEAM | AI, China, Cloud, growth, international, technology, Trade Policy, Valuations | BABA | Chautauqua's growth funds underperformed in Q3 despite strong markets as trade tensions eased and Fed cut rates. Chinese tech holdings and AI beneficiaries drove gains while software names detracted. Managers maintain overweight China positions believing valuations compensate for risks. They favor international equities over elevated U.S. markets while focusing on secular growth themes like AI and cloud computing. |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 0388.HK, ADYEN.AS, BEKE, COLO-B.CO, CP.TO, CSU.TO, FFH.TO, HDB, ILMN, LULU, MU, NVDA, NVO, OLED, REGN, RYA.L, SAF.PA, SE, TCS.NS, TEAM, WCN | AI, China, growth, semiconductors, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy, Travel |
SAF FP FFH CN 2423 HK NVDA |
Baird Chautauqua targets quality growth companies with strong competitive positions and financial resilience. Despite Q2 underperformance from Asia holdings amid trade volatility, the strategy focuses on secular themes like AI, e-commerce, and travel. Overweight Greater China positions reflect attractive valuations. International markets offer better value than elevated U.S. markets for long-term returns. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIThe quarter was defined by AI disruption fears causing severe repricing of software and digital businesses as the market reassessed terminal values on fears of AI disruption. The emergence of agentic applications like Cowork and OpenClaw demonstrated capabilities extending beyond basic coding into complex automated workflows, treating this technological leap as an existential threat to capital-light platforms. |
Disruption Software Automation Platforms Agentic |
SemiconductorsTaiwan Semiconductor and ASML were among the largest contributors as AI infrastructure beneficiaries. TSMC reported strong results with capacity in leading-edge nodes remaining tight, while ASML saw record bookings due to strong AI demand for DRAM and advanced logic. The fund increased its tilt toward AI infrastructure beneficiaries. |
TSMC ASML Infrastructure Memory Foundries | |
EnergyEnergy posted the strongest quarterly return in years as the Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20% of global oil supply from transit. The war in Iran and closure of the strait created overlapping macro shocks that drove capital into physical assets including energy, materials, and defense. |
Oil Geopolitical Supply Iran Hormuz | |
Trade PolicyA Supreme Court ruling stripped the President of emergency executive powers used to impose tariffs, invalidating duties on China, Canada, Mexico and others. The administration imposed a baseline 10% tariff using alternative authority, but this expires in July creating a policy cliff. The effective U.S. tariff rate remains at its highest level since the 1940s. |
Tariffs Supreme Court China Policy Cliff | |
InflationCore PCE inflation reaccelerated with the Fed revising projections sharply higher. The combination of tariff pass-through and oil shock drove U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon, creating stagflationary pressures. European flash inflation accelerated to 2.5% as the energy crisis complicated disinflation trends. |
Stagflation PCE Gasoline Energy Fed | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI-related infrastructure demand drove materials rallies and memory semiconductors delivered outsized returns as high-bandwidth memory demand for AI datacenters rewarded players in that consolidated industry. However, application software and IT services faced persistent pressure on concerns that generative AI could disrupt traditional business models. |
Infrastructure Memory Software Disruption |
Trade PolicySignificant de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions occurred with Presidents Trump and Xi reaching an agreement that reduced fentanyl-related tariffs and extended suspension of reciprocal tariffs. However, the average effective U.S. tariff rate remains significantly elevated at 17% compared to 2-3% at end of 2024. |
Tariffs China Agreement Tensions | |
ChinaEconomic data remained mixed despite trade war stabilization. Exports have been resilient but domestic demand remains stubbornly weak. The property sector downturn continues to weigh on investment and consumer confidence, though policymakers identified raising household incomes as a priority for boosting consumption. |
Exports Property Consumption Stimulus | |
SemiconductorsMemory semiconductors delivered outsized returns as high-bandwidth memory demand for AI datacenters rewarded players in that consolidated industry. The U.S. announced a partial rollback of semiconductor export controls, allowing shipments of previously banned yet still lagging-edge datacenter chips. |
Memory Export Controls Datacenter | |
RatesCentral bank policy paths diverged with the Fed continuing easing, the ECB holding steady, and the BOJ raising rates to their highest level in nearly three decades. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act between a weakening labor market and inflation that remains above target. |
Fed ECB BOJ Divergence | |
InflationInflation has been stubbornly persistent with core inflation easing only modestly and remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. Tariff pass-through remains an upside risk to inflation in 2026 as businesses conclude that tariffs will endure and their buffers are depleting. |
Persistent Tariffs Pass-through | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Trade PolicyThe quarter saw significant resolution of trade disputes with the U.S. formalizing agreements with EU, Japan, and South Korea establishing higher baseline tariffs but removing punitive reciprocal rates. While these agreements provided market relief, tariff impacts are beginning to filter into economic data with businesses citing higher input costs. |
Tariffs Trade agreements Global trade Inflation Supply chains |
AIArtificial intelligence continues to drive growth across portfolio holdings, particularly in Chinese technology companies where AI-related product revenue accounts for over 20% of external customer revenue and is expected to accelerate further. AI optimism also contributed to strong performance in emerging markets technology stocks. |
Artificial intelligence Technology Cloud computing Data centers Innovation | |
ChinaChinese holdings represent significant overweight positions in both funds with roughly 19% in International Fund and 13% in Global Fund. The managers believe Chinese holdings are attractively valued given long-term growth outlooks and are positioned in secular growth areas like private consumption and healthcare that align with government priorities. |
Chinese equities Emerging markets Valuation Domestic consumption Healthcare | |
CloudCloud computing remains a compelling long-term growth driver with strong performance from cloud businesses in the portfolio. Cloud revenue growth of 26% was highlighted as a key driver for portfolio companies, representing one of the secular trends less affected by near-term global events. |
Cloud infrastructure Software-as-a-service Digital transformation Technology Growth | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump imposed baseline 10% tariffs and reciprocal tariffs up to 50% on trading partners, creating market volatility. The U.S. and China de-escalated tensions with tariff reductions, but uncertainty remains about future trade deals and their economic impact. |
Tariffs Trade War China Negotiations Economic Impact |
AIArtificial intelligence represents a key secular growth theme within the portfolio's top holdings. AI datacenter build-out continues despite supply constraints, with companies like NVIDIA demonstrating strong demand commentary outside of China. |
Datacenter NVIDIA Computing Growth Technology | |
E-commerceE-commerce remains a significant secular growth opportunity, particularly in emerging markets and Asia. The portfolio includes holdings exposed to digital transformation and online commerce platforms that benefit from long-term consumer behavior shifts. |
Digital Online Platforms Consumer Asia | |
TravelTravel demand showed robust recovery with Ryanair reporting stronger-than-expected summer travel outlook and peak fares trending 5-6% year-over-year. The industry remains capacity-constrained through 2030, creating favorable pricing dynamics. |
Airlines Tourism Capacity Pricing Recovery | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor companies performed well with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 29% in the quarter. High-bandwidth memory DRAM for AI computing drove strong performance, though supply constraints and potential overcapacity concerns persist. |
Memory DRAM AI Computing Supply Demand |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jesse Flores | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | - | AI, China, cloud, e-commerce, growth, Value | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jesse Flores | FFH CN | Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Bookvalue, Catastrophes, Reinsurance, Repurchases, underwriting | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jesse Flores | 2423 HK | KE Holdings Inc. | Real Estate | Real Estate Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | China, COST, guidance, Housing, Property | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jesse Flores | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, datacenters, Export controls, GPUs | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jesse Flores | SAF FP | Safran S.A. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | aftermarket, backlog, Engines, Pricing, Utilization | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ASML | ASML reported solid 4Q25 results and record bookings due to strong AI demand for DRAM and advanced logic, and FY2026 guidance is above consensus. Tight DRAM supply and adoption of more advanced nodes in AI XPUs should continue to sustain strong orders into FY2027. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) reported December quarter results that exceeded expectations, with revenue growing 20% q/q and gross margin reaching above 62%, both well above guidance. Capacity in leading-edge nodes and advanced packaging remains tight, with supply-demand imbalances likely persisting through at least early 2027. Management guided 2026 capex of $52-56 billion, roughly 30% above the prior year and ahead of consensus expectations, signaling confidence in multi-year AI demand. TSMC also raised its datacenter AI revenue growth CAGR expectation to the mid-to-high 50% range through 2029. |
| MU | Micron reported strong FY1Q26 results and gave well-above consensus guidance for revenues, earnings, and margins, as AI-driven demand and structural supply tightness continue to drive pricing, which was again the primary driver of growth for both DRAM and NAND. Micron signed its first five-year strategic customer agreement, signaling memory is more a strategic asset than commodity. We reduced its weight in the portfolio because very high prices typically do not last long as the industry increases capacity. |
| ADYEN.AS | Adyen reported December quarter results slightly below consensus expectations, with net revenue growing 19% y/y. For FY2025, the business delivered 21% net revenue growth with EBITDA margin expanding 300 basis points to 53%. On the outlook, management refined 2026 net revenue growth guidance to 20-22% y/y from the prior 'low-to-mid twenties' framework communicated just months earlier at its Capital Markets Day. The narrower near-term guide coincided with broader risk-off sentiment in digital growth names, amplifying the de-rating. Adyen remains a deeply embedded financial infrastructure that enterprises cannot easily replace, and the secular shift from legacy payment processors to modern unified commerce platforms continues to provide a long runway for growth. |
| TEAM | Atlassian was caught in the SaaS apocalypse along with other software stocks and significantly underperformed even though its earnings report was strong. We exited the position because long-term uncertainties have drastically increased due to the advancement of AI, which in turn led to a significantly lower terminal value. |
| SE | Sea Limited reported December quarter results with GMV growing 29% and revenue growing 36% for the full year, but the stock sold off sharply as management guided 2026 Shopee EBITDA to be no lower than 2025 in absolute dollar terms, implying margin compression on 25% GMV growth. The market had expected at least flat margins. Management framed the year as one of disciplined reinvestment in logistics, fulfillment, VIP subscriptions, and new lending markets, though the lack of near-term margin visibility has weighed on sentiment. |
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