| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Ameliora Wealth Management navigated Q1 2026 market volatility driven by Middle East conflict and resulting oil price surge of over 60%. The bombing of Iran by US and Israeli forces disrupted Persian Gulf exports representing 20% of global oil supply, causing major equity indices to turn negative year-to-date. The manager maintains that current oil prices approaching potential $200 per barrel are unsustainable except for Russia and Saudi Arabia, expecting negotiations involving China and India as major Iranian oil buyers. Their defensive positioning proved timely, including shortened fixed income maturities and profit-taking in precious metals. Thematic allocations to global energy infrastructure, European financials, US gold miners, and defense showed relative resilience during the pullback. Despite acknowledging significant geopolitical risks and potential for global recession, the manager remains confident in their cautious approach, noting the world economy is much less oil-dependent than in the 1970s. Corporate profit expectations of 12-17% growth over three years support their neutral equity stance while focusing on facts over fears.
Despite geopolitical turmoil causing market corrections, the manager maintains a defensive but not overly bearish stance, believing current oil price levels are unsustainable and expecting diplomatic resolution while positioning in resilient themes like energy infrastructure, European financials, gold miners, and defense.
The manager expects behind-the-scenes negotiations involving China and India to resolve the Middle East conflict, noting oil prices at current levels are unsustainable. They remain confident in overcoming the crisis by focusing on facts rather than fears, maintaining their cautious approach without drastically reducing equity exposure. Corporate profit expectations remain strong at 12-17% growth globally over the next 3 years.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17 2026 | 2026 Q1 | EUFN, GDX, GRID, SHLD | Crisis, defense, energy, geopolitics, gold, inflation, Middle East, oil | - | Ameliora navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical crisis with defensive positioning as Middle East conflict drove oil prices up 60% and equity markets negative. Their energy infrastructure, European financials, gold miners, and defense themes showed resilience. Despite acknowledging recession risks from potential $200 oil, they expect diplomatic resolution and maintain neutral equity stance given strong corporate profit outlook. |
| Jan 22 2026 | 2025 Q4 | EUFN, GDX, GRID, SHLD | AI, commodities, Energy Transition, Geopolitical, Global Markets, Precious Metals, technology | - | Ameliora delivered strong 2025 performance driven by precious metals overweight as gold gained 64% and silver surged 145%. Maintains broadly neutral equity stance while reducing long-dated bond exposure due to debt concerns. Expects positive year ahead from 14-15% profit growth and falling rates, but monitoring AI bubble risks and geopolitical uncertainties including potential China-Taiwan conflict. |
| Oct 3 2025 | 2025 Q3 | GDX, SHLD | AI, defense, Europe, Geopolitical, gold, Precious Metals, technology, Valuations | - | Ameliora emphasizes precious metals and defense spending themes while maintaining disciplined selectivity in AI investments. Gold remains their largest position after 45% YTD gains, complemented by new silver and defense contractor exposures. Despite acknowledging AI's transformational potential, they avoid overvalued tech names, drawing parallels to the late-1990s bubble and focusing on quality companies with strong fundamentals. |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Dollar, Europe, Geopolitical, gold, infrastructure, volatility | - | Ameliora Wealth Management favors European equities and gold over US assets amid dollar weakness from unsustainable debt levels. Despite volatile Q2 recovery, they remain cautious given historically low consumer sentiment, elevated investor greed, and geopolitical risks. Positioning focuses on European infrastructure spending themes and AI-driven opportunities while awaiting clarity on US policy and Middle East developments. |
| May 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | GRID, INDA, IWY, QQQ, XLE | defense, Dollar, Europe, gold, inflation, Recession, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Liberation Day's unprecedented tariffs triggered global market upheaval with recession risks rising and banks forecasting economic contraction. European equities surged while US markets corrected from elevated valuations. The manager drastically reduced equity exposure, increased gold allocation, and raised cash levels for asset protection as trade wars threaten to hurt all participants in this risky global strategy. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices surged over 60% in four weeks due to Middle East conflict disrupting Persian Gulf exports, which account for 20% of global oil exports. The manager expects negotiations involving China and India as major Iranian oil buyers, noting current price levels are unsustainable for most parties except Russia and Saudi Arabia. |
Energy Geopolitics Inflation Supply Crisis |
GoldGold and silver fell sharply since February despite being up year-to-date, demonstrating contagion effects where even solid assets are sold for cash during financial stress. The manager maintains a long-term positive outlook for gold but took profits earlier in the year. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Inflation Crisis Contagion | |
DefenseThe global defense sector allocation (SHLD) showed relative resilience during the recent market pullback amid Middle East geopolitical tensions and conflict escalation. |
Geopolitics Military Conflict Resilience | |
Energy TransitionThe manager notes the world is much less dependent on oil than 50 years ago, with US economy sensitivity falling from one barrel per $1,000 GDP in the 1970s to one-third of a barrel currently, and global sensitivity dropping from 0.6 to 0.2 barrels. |
Efficiency Decoupling Economy Oil Dependency | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager believes AI valuations are in a speculative bubble driven by circular investments and unsustainable capex. While acknowledging AI's transformative potential, they argue most value will accrue to consumers rather than producers due to commoditization and competition. They compare the current AI boom to historical railroad and fiber buildouts that ended in oversupply and investor losses. |
Artificial Intelligence Valuations Commoditization Capex Competition |
ValuationsUS equity valuations are at perilous highs with S&P 500 forward P/E at 23x and CAPE near 40x. The manager highlights extreme concentration in overvalued mega-cap stocks and notes that 35% of S&P 500 market weight trades at more than 10x sales. They contrast this with much more attractive valuations in international markets, particularly emerging markets. |
P/E Ratios CAPE Concentration International Emerging Markets | |
CryptoManager views cryptocurrency investments as part of widespread speculative excess, citing Dogecoin's $60 billion peak market cap despite being created as a joke with no use cases. They also criticize leveraged crypto ETFs and the circular nature of crypto treasury companies like MicroStrategy that trade at premiums to their underlying bitcoin holdings. |
Cryptocurrency Speculation Dogecoin MicroStrategy Leveraged ETFs | |
Institutional DecayThe manager expresses deep concern about the erosion of American institutions under the current administration, including attacks on the rule of law, corruption, and undermining of scientific institutions. They argue this institutional breakdown threatens the foundations that have historically justified premium valuations for US assets and could lead to capital flight. |
Rule of Law Corruption Federal Reserve Science Institutions | |
InternationalManager is positioned in international equities which significantly outperformed US markets in 2025, returning 32.6% versus SPY's 17.7%. They highlight attractive valuations in European and Japanese equities at 15x forward earnings and emerging markets at 10x, representing substantial discounts to US multiples. They view this as a compelling opportunity for value-conscious investors. |
Europe Japan Emerging Markets Outperformance Value | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold remains the largest position across discretionary mandates, advancing 14% in Q3 and 45% year-to-date. The firm initiated a complementary allocation to silver on September 25. Both metals benefit from heightened monetary policy uncertainty, sovereign debt concerns, and lack of political will to address rising debt burdens. |
Gold Silver Precious Metals Monetary Policy Sovereign Debt |
Defense SpendingWith global defense spending expected to rise, the firm established a position in SHLD, an ETF with significant exposure to U.S. and European defense contractors. This reflects structural tailwinds from increased geopolitical tensions and defense budget allocations. |
Defense SHLD Geopolitical Military Contractors | |
AITechnology remains an important theme supported by accelerating artificial intelligence adoption and vast capital expenditures required for new data center infrastructure. However, the firm remains highly selective, mindful that not all companies will emerge as sustainable beneficiaries of this transformational trend. |
AI Data Centers Technology Infrastructure Capex | |
Gold MinersThe firm added exposure to gold miners via GDX, a sector benefiting from favorable cost structures, elevated margins, and robust demand for physical gold. This complements their direct precious metals exposure. |
GDX Mining Margins Cost Structure Physical Gold | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DollarThe US dollar has weakened significantly, falling 14% versus Euro and Swiss franc, and 9% versus Japanese yen since year start. The weakness is attributed to unsustainable debt burden above 120% of GDP and 7% budget deficit, with forecasts of further 10% decline. |
Currency Debt Deficit Weakness |
EuropeEuropean equities outperformed US counterparts over the last 6 months in both local and USD terms, supported by cheaper valuations and infrastructure/defense spending. The firm remains underweight US equities in favor of European stocks despite strong EUR being a headwind for earnings. |
Outperformance Valuations Infrastructure Defense | |
GoldGold surged sharply over the past six months before entering consolidation, driven by macroeconomic forces, central bank behavior, and geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Eastern Europe. Recommended as a hedge against falling dollar. |
Surge Consolidation Geopolitical Hedge | |
AIThe GRID sector performed well this year with AI-driven infrastructure spending programs. The firm continues to see opportunities in longer-term AI infrastructure stories as part of their investment themes. |
Infrastructure Spending Grid Investment | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyLiberation Day brought higher-than-expected tariffs from the White House that are expected to temper global growth and contaminate international relations through counter-tariffs. The manager views declaring war with the whole world as a highly risky strategy that might backfire badly, with wounds from Liberation Day not healing quickly even if some tariffs are back-pedaled later. |
Tariffs Trade Wars Global Trade Economic Policy International Relations |
Defense SpendingGerman lawmakers approved a €500 billion budget for defense and infrastructure on March 18th, representing a notable shift from their usual fiscal conservatism. This aims to provide additional support to the European economy and mainly its defense sector, potentially leading to EU integration regarding shared fiscal and defense policy. |
European Defense Infrastructure Fiscal Policy Military Spending EU Integration | |
GoldGold rose nearly 20% in the quarter amid global uncertainties, with most analysts continuing to support the case for higher gold prices. The manager increased their allocation to gold last year which certainly increased their diversification benefits and plans to add to their gold position going forward. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Diversification Uncertainty Hedge Asset Protection | |
DollarAfter a strong US dollar year in 2024, the greenback began to weaken against most counterparts. The manager believes the US administration prefers a weaker dollar to support US exports, though this will cause import prices to go up and together with additional tariffs is bad news for inflation. |
Currency USD Weakness Export Competitiveness Import Inflation Trade Balance | |
InflationInflation is persistently high with the core rate at 2.8%, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates. Long-term inflation expectations reached 3.5% according to the University of Michigan survey, marking the highest figure since 1995, influenced by concerns regarding impending inflation from tariffs and weaker dollar. |
Core Inflation Fed Policy Interest Rates Consumer Expectations Price Pressures |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| GRID | Our equity themes GRID (global energy infrastructure), EUFN (European financials) and GDX (U.S. gold miners), as well as our allocation to the global defense sector (SHLD), have shown relative resilience during the recent market pullback. |
| EUFN | Our equity themes GRID (global energy infrastructure), EUFN (European financials) and GDX (U.S. gold miners), as well as our allocation to the global defense sector (SHLD), have shown relative resilience during the recent market pullback. |
| GDX | Our equity themes GRID (global energy infrastructure), EUFN (European financials) and GDX (U.S. gold miners), as well as our allocation to the global defense sector (SHLD), have shown relative resilience during the recent market pullback. |
| SHLD | Our equity themes GRID (global energy infrastructure), EUFN (European financials) and GDX (U.S. gold miners), as well as our allocation to the global defense sector (SHLD), have shown relative resilience during the recent market pullback. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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