| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Advisors Capital Management sees solid prospects for 2026 driven by AI-powered productivity gains that are offsetting wage pressures and containing inflation while boosting corporate profits. The firm expects solid GDP growth, strong profit growth, and only modest changes in inflation and interest rates, creating an almost ideal environment for stock prices. However, market concentration has reached concerning levels with the top 10 companies representing 40.7% of the S&P 500, dominated by AI beneficiaries like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Geopolitically, the Monroe-Trump Doctrine represents a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, with Venezuela's regime change potentially lowering oil prices and benefiting energy companies. The firm maintains diversified portfolios positioned for inflation resilience through exposure to energy, real estate, and companies with pricing power. In fixed income, they favor 3-7 year corporate bonds with moderate duration and higher credit quality. While AI investment momentum remains strong, the firm acknowledges risks from potential slowdowns and emphasizes the importance of diversification beyond mega-cap concentration.
AI-driven productivity gains are creating an almost ideal environment for markets, with solid GDP growth, strong corporate profits, and contained inflation supporting equity valuations, while geopolitical shifts and energy market changes provide additional investment opportunities.
Solid prospects for 2026 with expectations for solid GDP growth, correspondingly strong profit growth, only modest changes in inflation, and therefore only modest changes in interest rates. This combination creates an almost ideal environment for stock prices. The economic environment is very positive for equities with slow job growth translating into solid economic growth as productivity lifts GDP.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, SLB, TSLA | AI, energy, Geopolitical, inflation, productivity, technology, Venezuela | - | AI productivity gains are creating ideal market conditions with solid growth, strong profits, and contained inflation supporting equity valuations. However, extreme market concentration in mega-caps creates risks. Geopolitical shifts including Venezuela's regime change offer energy opportunities. The firm maintains diversified positioning across inflation-resilient sectors while favoring intermediate-duration, high-quality fixed income to balance growth opportunities with concentration risks. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | DAL, JPM, NVDA | AI, Fed policy, growth, international, large cap, rates, technology |
NVDA JPM GS MSFT META TW |
ACM sees economic resilience despite political turbulence, with AI driving transformational growth and Large Cap Growth stocks maintaining outperformance through superior fundamentals. Gradual Fed rate cuts support markets while international opportunities emerge from accommodative global policies. Portfolio strategy emphasizes AI exposure across sectors, Large Cap Growth anchoring with tactical diversification, and moderate duration fixed income positioning. |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | NVDA | AI, defense, Fiscal, international, rates, tariffs, Valuations | - | ACM navigates Q2 2025 with cautious optimism as AI infrastructure drives market gains while policy uncertainty creates both opportunities and risks. Defense spending and corporate tax permanence support select sectors, but tariff-driven inflation and massive deficit expansion pose systemic challenges. International markets outperformed despite initial tariff fears, while the firm maintains selective positioning emphasizing intermediate bonds and AI-exposed growth themes. |
| Apr 28 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, DUK, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA | AI, Defensive, fixed income, global, Recession, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | ACM believes markets are overreacting to tariff fears despite legitimate policy uncertainty. While new trade policies create near-term volatility, adaptation mechanisms and ongoing negotiations with 70+ countries should mitigate worst-case scenarios. The firm is taking advantage of market mispricing while maintaining defensive positioning through consumer staples, utilities, and intermediate-term bonds, viewing current dislocations as value opportunities for disciplined investors. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
TechnologyThe Fund invests at least 80% of net assets in technology companies across multiple sub-industries including IT consulting, internet services, application software, communications equipment, semiconductors, and interactive media. The portfolio focuses on companies with sector-leading cash flows, attractive valuations, and sustainable profitability prospects. |
Software Hardware Semiconductors Internet Communications |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI continues to dominate market momentum and drive cross-sector innovation. Infrastructure demand for AI technologies is creating massive growth in data centers, with the market opportunity growing from virtually zero to over $1 trillion in 2025. Companies across sectors are beginning to realize productivity and profitability gains as AI adoption accelerates. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Productivity Technology Innovation |
Large CapLarge Cap Growth stocks continue to outperform due to strong earnings, balance sheet strength, and secular trends. These companies have grown earnings at a faster pace than other companies and tend to have strong balance sheets and growing free cash flow. A balanced strategy anchored by Large Cap Growth companies has historically delivered strong risk-adjusted returns. |
Growth Earnings Technology Quality Outperformance | |
RatesThe Fed is expected to gradually lower rates, likely cutting at least once in the next year. The Fed Funds rate is on a downward trajectory, though the pace may be slower than market expectations. ACM's Fixed Income strategy prioritizes moderate duration and high credit quality to balance opportunity and risk. |
Fed Monetary Policy Duration Fixed Income Treasury | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI infrastructure investment remains a key source of market optimism and continues to drive sales and profits across sectors from semiconductors to utilities. The transformative potential of artificial intelligence is driving a revolution in productivity, products, and services, with companies providing AI infrastructure seeing significant gains in revenue and profit. Nvidia exemplifies this trend with share price surging over 900% while earnings outlook rose even faster by more than 1,100%. |
Infrastructure Semiconductors Productivity Revenue Growth |
Trade PolicyNew tariffs could raise inflation while limiting the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. President Trump indicated that suspension of reciprocal tariffs may end as early as July 9, with new duties on imports from countries without finalized trade agreements. While tariffs could generate up to $300 billion in government revenue, they are also intended to encourage companies to relocate manufacturing to the U.S. |
Tariffs Inflation Manufacturing Revenue Relocation | |
Defense SpendingDefense contractors are particularly well-positioned with the bill providing $150 billion in new military spending, including funding for the Golden Dome missile defense system. Companies specializing in autonomous systems, cybersecurity, and aerospace could see faster contract flows and improved earnings visibility. The legislation allocates hundreds of billions to defense and border security. |
Contractors Military Autonomous Cybersecurity Aerospace | |
Energy TransitionThe rollback of renewable energy tax credits is a major development that may weaken investor confidence in the long-term viability of clean energy sectors. Stripping away subsidies and incentives for wind, solar, and energy storage could impact growth prospects. Capital rotation is already being observed out of renewables and into traditional energy and defense names. |
Renewables Solar Wind Storage Subsidies | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump Administration implemented extensive tariff policies in Q1 2025, including reciprocal tariffs on 90 countries ranging from 10% to 125% rates. While markets initially reacted negatively, the firm believes adaptation mechanisms and potential negotiations will mitigate worst-case scenarios. The policy creates both challenges through higher costs and opportunities through domestic production shifts. |
Tariffs Trade War Negotiations Protectionism Import Duties |
AIArtificial intelligence continues as a transformative growth driver despite recent stock price declines. Investment in AI infrastructure remains strong, with demand for specialty chips outstripping supply. The AI boom is expanding beyond technology into energy, utilities, and industrial sectors as data centers require vast power infrastructure. |
Machine Learning Data Centers Infrastructure Computing Innovation | |
DefensiveThe firm advocates for defensive positioning focused on capital preservation over aggressive growth during periods of uncertainty. This involves shifting toward consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare sectors that provide essential services and steady dividends while maintaining lower volatility and resilience in challenging conditions. |
Capital Preservation Stability Consumer Staples Utilities Healthcare |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | TW | TSMC | Consumer Discretionary | Semiconductors & Foundry | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity, diversification, Foundry, manufacturing, Onshoring, profitability, ROIC, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CUDA, datacenter, leadership, Pricing power, semiconductors, TAM expansion, valuation | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | AI, banking, Digital transformation, efficiency, productivity, profitability, ROE, Technology moat | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | GS | Goldman Sachs Group Inc. | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | NYSE | Capital markets, earnings, investment banking, leverage, recovery, Regulation, valuation | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud, Copilot, Enterprise software, FCF, growth, productivity, recurring revenue | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | META | Meta Platforms Inc. | Communication Services | Social Media & Advertising | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, AI, digital advertising, growth, infrastructure, Margins, monetization, operating leverage | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| AVGO | The primary contributors to its performance were our exposures to Broadcom |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| SLB | Venezuela's regime change should benefit energy companies operating in the country, as well as oilfield service providers such as SLB, which are likely to play a critical role in restoring and expanding Venezuela's oil production capacity. |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
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