‘It's a True Silver Squeeze’: Gary Wagner Confirms Breakout, Reveals What's Next for Gold
Summary
Market Divergence: Gold has surged over 9.5% in three weeks, while silver futures have broken past the historic $50 resistance, despite a simultaneous 2% rally in the US dollar index.
Silver Squeeze: The silver market is experiencing a true squeeze, with spot silver trading above futures, indicating physical tightness and high demand, particularly in Asia.
Gold Technicals: Gold's recent parabolic move is supported by technical indicators, with prices above the 50-day moving average, signaling a strong bullish trend.
Central Bank Influence: Central banks, particularly China, are accumulating gold, reducing supply and supporting higher prices, as they seek to de-dollarize and secure a neutral reserve asset.
Price Forecasts: Gary Wagner predicts gold could reach $4,300 and silver $55 to $58 by the end of the year, driven by strong physical demand and central bank buying.
Risk Management: Investors are advised to consider dollar-cost averaging and maintaining a base of physical metals, as speculative money could lead to temporary market corrections.
Dollar Dynamics: Despite the dollar's strength, gold and silver continue to rise, overcoming headwinds due to their intrinsic value and inflationary pressures on fiat currencies.
Investment Outlook: The ongoing demand for precious metals suggests systemic risks are being repriced, with the potential for further upside in gold and silver markets.
Transcript
Hey everyone, welcome back to Chart This. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Well, a remarkable and historically significant divergences unfolding in the global markets. Gold has surged an incredible 9 and a half% in just 3 weeks. Futures adding over $360 to trade above $41.50 an ounce. And at the same time, I'm sure you've noticed, silver futures have finally shattered the historic $50 resistance, a level that has been capped the market since the highs of 1980 and 2011. Now, to trade past $50 there, but it's important to say spot is trading over $51. Now, that's interesting and we will get into it. Now, under normal circumstances, this would be explained by a collapse in the US dollar, but of course, that's not what's happening. The US dollar index has simultaneously rallied over 2% this month to just top over 99. And it's a fuel move fueled rather by significant weakness in the euro and Japanese yen as breakdown in correlation demands a deeper analysis. So of course we bring back our friend. Joining me is technical analyst Gary Wagner of the gold forecast.com. Gary, good to see you. Thank you. Great to be here. Exciting times. Yes. Yeah. It's just wild. I mean, you and I have been talking about it and actually I was looking at our last tape. Your last video did really well. It was from September 25th and you made that call for a potential run to $50 silver amidst a resilient dollar. Has proven to be incredibly accurate. You know, when we look at the backdrop, right, let's start with silver. After decades of failed attempts, it's broken through that $50 range. The silver to gold ratio has collapsed as a result. I want you to pull up a silver chart, but walk us through the technicals cuz we're now seeing spot silver in London trading above the front month futures. That's a reversal uh you know of normal structure as you know. What does that signal to you? I mean is this backwardization purely a reflection of a physical tightness? Is it suggest traders are unwilling to part with any metal at any price? What are your thoughts? Well, it's an interesting scenario. Typically futures pricing is always priced above that of physical. The belief is that over time costs will go up. Mhm. What this type of scenario really implies is that a it could be a temporary thing and go down in the future, but it is truly a silver squeeze. Yeah. Do you think I mean you know you look at it and obviously there's a lot of narrative in the market. We're seeing X everyone's talking about the silver squeeze. Is ComX losing its price setting powers here? I don't think so. I don't think so. I think that demand is far exceeding physical stock. Um and it is throwing off the futures market because if we pull up volume, volume has been enormous. Yeah, it looks like spot volumes in Asia. I see up 40% week overw week led by Shanghai and Mumbai buying. I'm seeing that re refiners are reporting premium bids over a$120 an ounce above the COMX settlements. Uh give me your forecast for Gary for silver, Gary. I mean, last time you were on, you knew it'd go to this $50 level. We weren't sure what that resistance looked like. What's it looking like now? Well, I've just put up volume and you can see how this has spiked up tremendously. Yeah. Wow. What I believe we could see is silver take out the former levels, which we've done. You can see that on this twowe chart. But I believe that we could see 55 to 58 silver by the end of this year, first quarter of next year. 55 to 58. As I write it down, there will be a lot of people excited to hear those calls. I mean, you know, the physical trader is effectively dictating price over financial contracts. But if it arbitragees away quickly, it means liquidity is still intact. How long would you need to see sustained backwardization before, you know, you could kind of call this a true shift in price discovery? Well, the point you brought up is a really fascinating point and that is when there is a discrepancy between spot and futures pricing that is not natural um traders are going to come in and arbitrage the differential and try to pick that off and tighten the spread. Yeah. So, real squeeze happening, Gary. I mean, I didn't think we'd hear about it. We we're seeing it kind of truly unplay. Uh let's talk about the historical moment for gold as well. I mean, as we talk about silver, obviously we can broaden this out to gold, which as I mentioned has put up over $360 since your last appearance in September. Uh pull up the gold chart because from a technical perspective and standpoint, I mean, how does silver breaking its multi-year decade resistance add a new layer of confirmation to this parabolic gold chart? Well, as you can see, we went parabolic beginning on Tuesday the 19th of August. I have two basic simple moving averages, a 20-day simple in blue, and a green, which represents a 50-day. Typically, a market technician looks at the 50-day moving average as an indication of whether or not a stock or commodity is in a bullish, bearish, or neutral trend. To be in a bullish trend, pricing must be above the 50-day moving average. Now if we look back there was a period of time between call it the end of August and maybe the end of May when it was actually trade price was actually oscillating in and out of that level. But for the most part the entire year has witnessed real bullish sentiment. And the way that we can see that, of course, is the fact that the longer term 50-day is underneath the shorter term 20-day. And especially when you look at current pricing, we're looking at the distance between the two moving averages. They were very tight back around the 20th of August. They were almost together. They did not cross. And when they cross, in other words, if the market goes up and then you get the blue line crossing over the green line, that's called a dead cross. If it crosses above, it's called a bullish cross. So, it's in the proper alignment for a full bullish demeanor. And the fact that these moving averages, the price distance between them is widening, that tells you that it's getting even more bullish. And that's important. Um, we can see that in terms of how quickly prices have moved up and how wide the differential between these moving averages are getting and that really bodess a whole lot in terms of uh bullish market sentiment. It continues to be bullish and market sentiment is getting stronger. All right, Gary. I mean, obviously, if you've been watching KCO news over the past couple years since I started, we have been covering this, you and I, exclusively, uh, very indepth and we've been pretty damn accurate, I must say. But speaking of bullish, we're seeing the mainstream media starting to kind of talk about it pushing those RSI readings almost near overbought territory. Now, we heard from today there's quite a few people that are calling for $5,000 gold, but I'm curious, I mean, from a pure technical standpoint, are we still in a controlled breakout or is it starting to kind of look like a parabolic blowoff? I mean, what levels are you watching to confirm the continuation versus exhaustion? Well, the one thing that you said that alarms me is typically when the public or speculating speculative money comes in in droves into the market, it tells you there's a potential top. and even a potential top as far as I'm concerned would be a necessary way to kind of reset. I wouldn't I would look for a shallow and quick retracement and then back to a bullish demeanor. But when you get too much speculative money in the large institutional players uh tend to use that as a price point to pull profits can happen. If the fundamentals are so overwhelmingly bullish then speculator money doesn't really change the dynamics. But I have seen times in the past and I've been doing this since 1980. So a few years in which when the speculative money was rich, let's say, it's kind of like a lake filled with really big trout and that's when the fishermen come out and cast their line. In that way, you want to be careful when you see that happening. But you can't argue with fundamentals. And if the dollar continues to lose value in relationship to other currencies, but more importantly, if it loses value in terms of buying power, inflation, the one safe haven asset that historically has been a an island, a bastion of safety has been gold. It's been that way for a long time and I don't see that changing. Personally, I think that we are headed right now shortterm meaning by the end of the year to 4,300. However, I have a caveat and the caveat is that at any point we could see the market correct. The correction doesn't mean that the rally is over. It simply means that there is profit taking going on in the market. The other thing that would do that, of course, is if the fundamentals change. Um, and right now it that doesn't seem that likely. And so I would believe that gold will continue to move higher, but we could see it consolidate, form what I call a base. When we look at our chart, you can see it sort of uh back in the beginning of September, gold goes to about 9670 and then it stays in this tight range with these bottoms which represent either the closing price or the opening price and as high as 3726 as low as 3674 before it pops up again. Then you get a couple of days of consolidation. Then you get a higher price consolidation. Higher price. Not really consolidation. You have larger candles. And now we have that move back up. So because of that, I still think there is upside room. I am surprised personally that we've seen such a huge move without any sort of a correction. Yeah. Yeah. Me too. I mean, it's been bought up, but I mean, speaking of the fundamentals, let's talk about the major buyer that often isn't reflected at on the COMX charts. Obviously, we've talked about central banks exclusively here have been seeing record sovereign purchases over the past couple of years. But despite the, you know, the the the small story there or the big story, however you want to look at it, from your perspective, how much of this parabolic move is a reflection of sovereign nations ddollarizing and seeking a neutral reserve asset? because it's a trend happening completely outside of this futures market that we're looking at. Well, the one thing you have to take into account with central bank accumulation of gold rather than dollars, hard currency, which was the case years ago, central banks tend to buy, accumulate, hold. They don't sell. So anytime you get a central bank accumulating more gold, that's going to stay in their reserve. They're not looking to liquidate it as much as use that as an instrument to provide value. In other words, the liquidity they need. And so it's important to note that when central banks are accumulating, they're going to hold on to it for a while. So that will diminish the supply and of course that will accelerate the upside move. So the fact and China I believe is one of the larger uh purchasers of gold even though they produce a tremendous amount they continue to buy from the open market and that gold will stay in the central bank of China for a long time. It's not something they're not speculating. They're not looking to accumulate and then sell. When they buy it, they keep it. And so that will tend to tighten the supply. Yeah. Supply and demand economics. When you when supply diminishes, price can only move one way and that's higher. And so that would be a ve a very very positive factor for gold. the more central banks are accumulating, the tighter the supply will get and the higher gold will go. Yeah, well said. And of course, they haven't stopped at these prices either as we continue to get reports out of the World Gold Council. Okay. Some traders argue that if we consolidate for too long here, the structure starts to look like distribution, not continuation, right? I mean, what separates healthy digestion from a topping pattern on your charts? Is it volume behavior, kind of candlestick structure, or that moving average slope? Well, again, that would have to do with volume and when volume remains brisk and the volume's been really good. Um, I believe that the demand is stable and if anything is growing, I talked to one of my clients the other day and he buys physical. I said, "Well, where do you where do you purchase it from?" I was hoping he would say Kitco. That's one of my trusted um companies that I buy my physical. He said, "Casco?" I said, "Casco? Really?" He says, "Yeah, the problem is they limit how much I can buy and they're typically sold out within days." And so, when you're able to buy gold and silver at Costco, it has reached the saturation level where the public has gotten very, very tightly involved with what's going on. Yeah. And that is a very very strong undertone to continue the bullish market sentiment. Yeah. Yeah. And to your point, I mean, we're going to have some great guests coming up this week, all week long. I've been talking to the Perth Mint. I've been talking to different people on the ground, and they are seeing tightness in the market, not just with silver, but with gold. And this brings us to the most complex part of the puzzle, the dollar. I mean, it's up over 2% this month, trading above 99. On on September 25th, you correctly identified its underlying strength. So let's look at that DXY. I mean how do you reconcile its strength with the explosive rally in metals? Listen, there are it's it's not the norm because there is an inverse relationship between the dollar and precious metals because the precious metals are paired against the dollar. However, you can get scenarios where the dollar is moving lower and gold and silver are moving lower. Typically, any kind of dollar weakness is going to have an identical effect on gold and silver. Dollar weakness is going to turn it on its back, so to speak, and that's going to lend strength for the precious metals. An upside move in the dollar will simply give it strong headwinds that it needs to overcome to have an equal move. In other words, if if the gold gains $20 in dollar neutrality, but in one case the the dollar has moved up 2%. Well, gold has got to move up 2% to just be neutral before it can show a gain. So, you can see the dollar have strength and gold and silver move up. And when we look at this daily chart, you can see that the dollar moved from 9669 up to 9946. So it's moved more than a couple of percent and yet gold and silver continued to move up and in fact have moved up during the period of September here. Yeah. So, it's just headwinds that the metals have to overcome just to break even. And when you see dollar strength on a day when gold was up, realize that gold first had to uh overcome the dollar strength to show any kind of positive tick. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, okay, let's get back to your your call here. $4,300 gold by the end of this year possibly. And you said 55 to 58 silver, right, G? Absolutely. I think that that's possible. Yes. Yeah. Well, I was just going to say, I mean, for our viewers, obviously a market this volatile is kind of difficult to navigate. And how is your risk profile changed in the last month? I mean, for somebody looking to enter now, what does proper risk management look like? Are we past the point of buying the dip? Are we now to chase your own peril kind of environment? What are your thoughts? Well, it depends on how you're using the precious metals to add to your portfolio. Yeah. If you're talking about physical accumulation, you should have built a base already and you're adding to that base at a more expensive price. So, you're dollar cost averaging to the upside, which isn't as favorable as dollar cost averaging to the downside. But of course, if gold is moving down and you continue to buy those dips, uh the inventory you had is has less value. But an old teacher of mine used to say the price of gold or silver doesn't really matter if you're holding. It only matters at two periods. When you're buying and when you're liquidating. If you're holding, the value of a coin is still there. The value of a 10 bar is still there. the value of a kilo is still there and it's not a question of will it gain value in the future over time typically when paired against the fiat currency it can only move higher because gold is has intrinsic value and the dollar is backed by what the faith in our government as long as it allows you to pay bills to transact business it is the mode of uh commerce. Um people aren't going to buy a house and trade, you know, six camels and a horse. That doesn't happen. They're going to use dollars to do that. But gold is always going to have a intrinsic value. And as long as we're pairing it against a fiat currency, whether it's the dollar or the euro or other currencies over time, the intrinsic value of gold, let's say that maintains at a level pace, but the currency itself is going to go down in terms of buying power. I'm not referring to the relationship of dollar strength or weakness against other currencies, which is what the index does, but the inflationary pressure. So, what does it cost for a loaf of bread, a gallon of milk, um a gallon of gasoline, things of that nature? And as long as fiat currencies are being used to transact business over time, it takes more currency to purchase the same amount of a commodity. And that's not going to change because the currencies aren't backed by anything except faith in the government. They're not on the gold standard. That's long past that train is run and past the station, so to speak. Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Uh, it's been interesting. You having fun? I mean, I asked you that a year ago and we're sitting here looking at 3,000. Absolutely. I am having the time of my life. I mean, who would have imagined to see gold in the area that it has where it broke 4,000. If we would have had this conversation what, a year ago, I would have probably been witnessing my last invitation to have an interview on Kitco. But now these numbers are they're there. They're legitimate. I think that we'll see when gold corrects and it will because who put it best? There was a a Fed governor that once said, Ben Bernani in relation to interest rates, trees don't grow to the sky. They never have. They never will. Saying there's an absolute ceiling to how how high interest rates can go. And in the same way, uh, gold is continuing to go up, but as long as it's being paired against a currency that intrinsically is losing its buying power, gold has nowhere to go but up long term. Short-term noise. Uh, anything can happen. We could see gold move from 4,100 back to 3,800. I would look at these moving averages as levels you need to see for critical support. So for example, right now if gold is remaining above 3890, even if it comes down and you get a couple of down days, it hasn't caused any technical chart damage. We haven't seen that all year. Yeah, it's been fascinating to watch. But of course, as you just mentioned, I mean, parabolic moves don't last forever. Uh, okay. If you see any signs of a correction, Gary, I mean, we we WhatsApp back and forth quite often. You you make sure you reach out. We'll have you on. Okay, you got it. All right. A new set of rules and some incredible new targets here. What $4,300 gold 55 to 58 on the silver side. Gary, your detailed analysis is greatly appreciated. Be sure to check it out at goldforcast.com. Of course, that was Gary Wagner. Key takeaway, record volume, collapsing gold to silver ratio, suggesting the move in metals is driven by that powerful physical demand. A force strong enough to defy a rising US dollar and signal that deep systemic risk are repricing the entire market. I'm Jeremy Sapper. We're going to have great guests coming up all week long with all of this information. Be sure to hit subscribe. We'll see you next time.
‘It's a True Silver Squeeze’: Gary Wagner Confirms Breakout, Reveals What's Next for Gold
Summary
Transcript
Hey everyone, welcome back to Chart This. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Well, a remarkable and historically significant divergences unfolding in the global markets. Gold has surged an incredible 9 and a half% in just 3 weeks. Futures adding over $360 to trade above $41.50 an ounce. And at the same time, I'm sure you've noticed, silver futures have finally shattered the historic $50 resistance, a level that has been capped the market since the highs of 1980 and 2011. Now, to trade past $50 there, but it's important to say spot is trading over $51. Now, that's interesting and we will get into it. Now, under normal circumstances, this would be explained by a collapse in the US dollar, but of course, that's not what's happening. The US dollar index has simultaneously rallied over 2% this month to just top over 99. And it's a fuel move fueled rather by significant weakness in the euro and Japanese yen as breakdown in correlation demands a deeper analysis. So of course we bring back our friend. Joining me is technical analyst Gary Wagner of the gold forecast.com. Gary, good to see you. Thank you. Great to be here. Exciting times. Yes. Yeah. It's just wild. I mean, you and I have been talking about it and actually I was looking at our last tape. Your last video did really well. It was from September 25th and you made that call for a potential run to $50 silver amidst a resilient dollar. Has proven to be incredibly accurate. You know, when we look at the backdrop, right, let's start with silver. After decades of failed attempts, it's broken through that $50 range. The silver to gold ratio has collapsed as a result. I want you to pull up a silver chart, but walk us through the technicals cuz we're now seeing spot silver in London trading above the front month futures. That's a reversal uh you know of normal structure as you know. What does that signal to you? I mean is this backwardization purely a reflection of a physical tightness? Is it suggest traders are unwilling to part with any metal at any price? What are your thoughts? Well, it's an interesting scenario. Typically futures pricing is always priced above that of physical. The belief is that over time costs will go up. Mhm. What this type of scenario really implies is that a it could be a temporary thing and go down in the future, but it is truly a silver squeeze. Yeah. Do you think I mean you know you look at it and obviously there's a lot of narrative in the market. We're seeing X everyone's talking about the silver squeeze. Is ComX losing its price setting powers here? I don't think so. I don't think so. I think that demand is far exceeding physical stock. Um and it is throwing off the futures market because if we pull up volume, volume has been enormous. Yeah, it looks like spot volumes in Asia. I see up 40% week overw week led by Shanghai and Mumbai buying. I'm seeing that re refiners are reporting premium bids over a$120 an ounce above the COMX settlements. Uh give me your forecast for Gary for silver, Gary. I mean, last time you were on, you knew it'd go to this $50 level. We weren't sure what that resistance looked like. What's it looking like now? Well, I've just put up volume and you can see how this has spiked up tremendously. Yeah. Wow. What I believe we could see is silver take out the former levels, which we've done. You can see that on this twowe chart. But I believe that we could see 55 to 58 silver by the end of this year, first quarter of next year. 55 to 58. As I write it down, there will be a lot of people excited to hear those calls. I mean, you know, the physical trader is effectively dictating price over financial contracts. But if it arbitragees away quickly, it means liquidity is still intact. How long would you need to see sustained backwardization before, you know, you could kind of call this a true shift in price discovery? Well, the point you brought up is a really fascinating point and that is when there is a discrepancy between spot and futures pricing that is not natural um traders are going to come in and arbitrage the differential and try to pick that off and tighten the spread. Yeah. So, real squeeze happening, Gary. I mean, I didn't think we'd hear about it. We we're seeing it kind of truly unplay. Uh let's talk about the historical moment for gold as well. I mean, as we talk about silver, obviously we can broaden this out to gold, which as I mentioned has put up over $360 since your last appearance in September. Uh pull up the gold chart because from a technical perspective and standpoint, I mean, how does silver breaking its multi-year decade resistance add a new layer of confirmation to this parabolic gold chart? Well, as you can see, we went parabolic beginning on Tuesday the 19th of August. I have two basic simple moving averages, a 20-day simple in blue, and a green, which represents a 50-day. Typically, a market technician looks at the 50-day moving average as an indication of whether or not a stock or commodity is in a bullish, bearish, or neutral trend. To be in a bullish trend, pricing must be above the 50-day moving average. Now if we look back there was a period of time between call it the end of August and maybe the end of May when it was actually trade price was actually oscillating in and out of that level. But for the most part the entire year has witnessed real bullish sentiment. And the way that we can see that, of course, is the fact that the longer term 50-day is underneath the shorter term 20-day. And especially when you look at current pricing, we're looking at the distance between the two moving averages. They were very tight back around the 20th of August. They were almost together. They did not cross. And when they cross, in other words, if the market goes up and then you get the blue line crossing over the green line, that's called a dead cross. If it crosses above, it's called a bullish cross. So, it's in the proper alignment for a full bullish demeanor. And the fact that these moving averages, the price distance between them is widening, that tells you that it's getting even more bullish. And that's important. Um, we can see that in terms of how quickly prices have moved up and how wide the differential between these moving averages are getting and that really bodess a whole lot in terms of uh bullish market sentiment. It continues to be bullish and market sentiment is getting stronger. All right, Gary. I mean, obviously, if you've been watching KCO news over the past couple years since I started, we have been covering this, you and I, exclusively, uh, very indepth and we've been pretty damn accurate, I must say. But speaking of bullish, we're seeing the mainstream media starting to kind of talk about it pushing those RSI readings almost near overbought territory. Now, we heard from today there's quite a few people that are calling for $5,000 gold, but I'm curious, I mean, from a pure technical standpoint, are we still in a controlled breakout or is it starting to kind of look like a parabolic blowoff? I mean, what levels are you watching to confirm the continuation versus exhaustion? Well, the one thing that you said that alarms me is typically when the public or speculating speculative money comes in in droves into the market, it tells you there's a potential top. and even a potential top as far as I'm concerned would be a necessary way to kind of reset. I wouldn't I would look for a shallow and quick retracement and then back to a bullish demeanor. But when you get too much speculative money in the large institutional players uh tend to use that as a price point to pull profits can happen. If the fundamentals are so overwhelmingly bullish then speculator money doesn't really change the dynamics. But I have seen times in the past and I've been doing this since 1980. So a few years in which when the speculative money was rich, let's say, it's kind of like a lake filled with really big trout and that's when the fishermen come out and cast their line. In that way, you want to be careful when you see that happening. But you can't argue with fundamentals. And if the dollar continues to lose value in relationship to other currencies, but more importantly, if it loses value in terms of buying power, inflation, the one safe haven asset that historically has been a an island, a bastion of safety has been gold. It's been that way for a long time and I don't see that changing. Personally, I think that we are headed right now shortterm meaning by the end of the year to 4,300. However, I have a caveat and the caveat is that at any point we could see the market correct. The correction doesn't mean that the rally is over. It simply means that there is profit taking going on in the market. The other thing that would do that, of course, is if the fundamentals change. Um, and right now it that doesn't seem that likely. And so I would believe that gold will continue to move higher, but we could see it consolidate, form what I call a base. When we look at our chart, you can see it sort of uh back in the beginning of September, gold goes to about 9670 and then it stays in this tight range with these bottoms which represent either the closing price or the opening price and as high as 3726 as low as 3674 before it pops up again. Then you get a couple of days of consolidation. Then you get a higher price consolidation. Higher price. Not really consolidation. You have larger candles. And now we have that move back up. So because of that, I still think there is upside room. I am surprised personally that we've seen such a huge move without any sort of a correction. Yeah. Yeah. Me too. I mean, it's been bought up, but I mean, speaking of the fundamentals, let's talk about the major buyer that often isn't reflected at on the COMX charts. Obviously, we've talked about central banks exclusively here have been seeing record sovereign purchases over the past couple of years. But despite the, you know, the the the small story there or the big story, however you want to look at it, from your perspective, how much of this parabolic move is a reflection of sovereign nations ddollarizing and seeking a neutral reserve asset? because it's a trend happening completely outside of this futures market that we're looking at. Well, the one thing you have to take into account with central bank accumulation of gold rather than dollars, hard currency, which was the case years ago, central banks tend to buy, accumulate, hold. They don't sell. So anytime you get a central bank accumulating more gold, that's going to stay in their reserve. They're not looking to liquidate it as much as use that as an instrument to provide value. In other words, the liquidity they need. And so it's important to note that when central banks are accumulating, they're going to hold on to it for a while. So that will diminish the supply and of course that will accelerate the upside move. So the fact and China I believe is one of the larger uh purchasers of gold even though they produce a tremendous amount they continue to buy from the open market and that gold will stay in the central bank of China for a long time. It's not something they're not speculating. They're not looking to accumulate and then sell. When they buy it, they keep it. And so that will tend to tighten the supply. Yeah. Supply and demand economics. When you when supply diminishes, price can only move one way and that's higher. And so that would be a ve a very very positive factor for gold. the more central banks are accumulating, the tighter the supply will get and the higher gold will go. Yeah, well said. And of course, they haven't stopped at these prices either as we continue to get reports out of the World Gold Council. Okay. Some traders argue that if we consolidate for too long here, the structure starts to look like distribution, not continuation, right? I mean, what separates healthy digestion from a topping pattern on your charts? Is it volume behavior, kind of candlestick structure, or that moving average slope? Well, again, that would have to do with volume and when volume remains brisk and the volume's been really good. Um, I believe that the demand is stable and if anything is growing, I talked to one of my clients the other day and he buys physical. I said, "Well, where do you where do you purchase it from?" I was hoping he would say Kitco. That's one of my trusted um companies that I buy my physical. He said, "Casco?" I said, "Casco? Really?" He says, "Yeah, the problem is they limit how much I can buy and they're typically sold out within days." And so, when you're able to buy gold and silver at Costco, it has reached the saturation level where the public has gotten very, very tightly involved with what's going on. Yeah. And that is a very very strong undertone to continue the bullish market sentiment. Yeah. Yeah. And to your point, I mean, we're going to have some great guests coming up this week, all week long. I've been talking to the Perth Mint. I've been talking to different people on the ground, and they are seeing tightness in the market, not just with silver, but with gold. And this brings us to the most complex part of the puzzle, the dollar. I mean, it's up over 2% this month, trading above 99. On on September 25th, you correctly identified its underlying strength. So let's look at that DXY. I mean how do you reconcile its strength with the explosive rally in metals? Listen, there are it's it's not the norm because there is an inverse relationship between the dollar and precious metals because the precious metals are paired against the dollar. However, you can get scenarios where the dollar is moving lower and gold and silver are moving lower. Typically, any kind of dollar weakness is going to have an identical effect on gold and silver. Dollar weakness is going to turn it on its back, so to speak, and that's going to lend strength for the precious metals. An upside move in the dollar will simply give it strong headwinds that it needs to overcome to have an equal move. In other words, if if the gold gains $20 in dollar neutrality, but in one case the the dollar has moved up 2%. Well, gold has got to move up 2% to just be neutral before it can show a gain. So, you can see the dollar have strength and gold and silver move up. And when we look at this daily chart, you can see that the dollar moved from 9669 up to 9946. So it's moved more than a couple of percent and yet gold and silver continued to move up and in fact have moved up during the period of September here. Yeah. So, it's just headwinds that the metals have to overcome just to break even. And when you see dollar strength on a day when gold was up, realize that gold first had to uh overcome the dollar strength to show any kind of positive tick. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, okay, let's get back to your your call here. $4,300 gold by the end of this year possibly. And you said 55 to 58 silver, right, G? Absolutely. I think that that's possible. Yes. Yeah. Well, I was just going to say, I mean, for our viewers, obviously a market this volatile is kind of difficult to navigate. And how is your risk profile changed in the last month? I mean, for somebody looking to enter now, what does proper risk management look like? Are we past the point of buying the dip? Are we now to chase your own peril kind of environment? What are your thoughts? Well, it depends on how you're using the precious metals to add to your portfolio. Yeah. If you're talking about physical accumulation, you should have built a base already and you're adding to that base at a more expensive price. So, you're dollar cost averaging to the upside, which isn't as favorable as dollar cost averaging to the downside. But of course, if gold is moving down and you continue to buy those dips, uh the inventory you had is has less value. But an old teacher of mine used to say the price of gold or silver doesn't really matter if you're holding. It only matters at two periods. When you're buying and when you're liquidating. If you're holding, the value of a coin is still there. The value of a 10 bar is still there. the value of a kilo is still there and it's not a question of will it gain value in the future over time typically when paired against the fiat currency it can only move higher because gold is has intrinsic value and the dollar is backed by what the faith in our government as long as it allows you to pay bills to transact business it is the mode of uh commerce. Um people aren't going to buy a house and trade, you know, six camels and a horse. That doesn't happen. They're going to use dollars to do that. But gold is always going to have a intrinsic value. And as long as we're pairing it against a fiat currency, whether it's the dollar or the euro or other currencies over time, the intrinsic value of gold, let's say that maintains at a level pace, but the currency itself is going to go down in terms of buying power. I'm not referring to the relationship of dollar strength or weakness against other currencies, which is what the index does, but the inflationary pressure. So, what does it cost for a loaf of bread, a gallon of milk, um a gallon of gasoline, things of that nature? And as long as fiat currencies are being used to transact business over time, it takes more currency to purchase the same amount of a commodity. And that's not going to change because the currencies aren't backed by anything except faith in the government. They're not on the gold standard. That's long past that train is run and past the station, so to speak. Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Uh, it's been interesting. You having fun? I mean, I asked you that a year ago and we're sitting here looking at 3,000. Absolutely. I am having the time of my life. I mean, who would have imagined to see gold in the area that it has where it broke 4,000. If we would have had this conversation what, a year ago, I would have probably been witnessing my last invitation to have an interview on Kitco. But now these numbers are they're there. They're legitimate. I think that we'll see when gold corrects and it will because who put it best? There was a a Fed governor that once said, Ben Bernani in relation to interest rates, trees don't grow to the sky. They never have. They never will. Saying there's an absolute ceiling to how how high interest rates can go. And in the same way, uh, gold is continuing to go up, but as long as it's being paired against a currency that intrinsically is losing its buying power, gold has nowhere to go but up long term. Short-term noise. Uh, anything can happen. We could see gold move from 4,100 back to 3,800. I would look at these moving averages as levels you need to see for critical support. So for example, right now if gold is remaining above 3890, even if it comes down and you get a couple of down days, it hasn't caused any technical chart damage. We haven't seen that all year. Yeah, it's been fascinating to watch. But of course, as you just mentioned, I mean, parabolic moves don't last forever. Uh, okay. If you see any signs of a correction, Gary, I mean, we we WhatsApp back and forth quite often. You you make sure you reach out. We'll have you on. Okay, you got it. All right. A new set of rules and some incredible new targets here. What $4,300 gold 55 to 58 on the silver side. Gary, your detailed analysis is greatly appreciated. Be sure to check it out at goldforcast.com. Of course, that was Gary Wagner. Key takeaway, record volume, collapsing gold to silver ratio, suggesting the move in metals is driven by that powerful physical demand. A force strong enough to defy a rising US dollar and signal that deep systemic risk are repricing the entire market. I'm Jeremy Sapper. We're going to have great guests coming up all week long with all of this information. Be sure to hit subscribe. We'll see you next time.