How Far Will Gold, Bitcoin Rallies Go? ‘Crack-Up’ Boom Supercharge Now | Florian Grummes
Summary
Gold Market: Gold is in a secular bull market with potential price targets revised upwards beyond $9,000, driven by central bank purchases from China, Russia, and India.
Bitcoin Outlook: Despite past bullishness, there's skepticism about Bitcoin's current momentum due to Wall Street's involvement and derivative products, with a price target of $150,000 for the current cycle.
Digital Assets and US Strategy: The US is focusing on digital assets as a strategic move to maintain economic dominance, with stablecoins potentially boosting demand for US treasuries.
Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to consider risk profiles and market timing, with a suggestion to hold 10-25% of net worth in physical gold and a cautious approach to Bitcoin at current levels.
Crack-Up Boom Theory: Asset price inflation is occurring due to global money supply expansion, leading to increased investment in hard assets as fiat currencies lose purchasing power.
Oil Sector: The oil market is seen as a contrarian play with potential long-term opportunities due to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions, despite current low interest.
Market Dynamics: The divergence between Main Street and Wall Street is highlighted, with deregulation benefiting corporations while trade policies impact labor growth and wages.
Transcript
Gold is clearly in a secular bull market. The price targets that you and I were talking about 5 years around $9,000. We probably have to revise them and and it's probably going to go even higher. The Chinese, the Russian and the Indian central bank are buying gold and not Bitcoin. The Americans desperately need something new to running their hedgeimony. They are decided it's going to be the digital asset space. It probably is the last chance that America can do because they are not having enough gold. We have to see how Bitcoin performs. My price target has been I believe Solana can at least for a short period of time go to [Applause] [Music] gold. Bitcoin stocks have all hit new alltime highs this year. Can the momentum sustain? We'll find out with our next guest, Florian Gumis, managing director of Minus Touch Consulting. We're here at the Precious Metal Summit in Beaver Creek. Welcome, Furian. Good to see you as always. >> Thanks for having me again. Pleasure to see you. >> Your work covers gold, Bitcoin, oil. Now, let's talk about gold and Bitcoin first. You're a little bit less bullish on Bitcoin now than I remember last year. I think you've told me in the past um many years ago actually, that Bitcoin was going to be the best performing asset. You were right on that call. Uh this year gold has outperformed most other asset classes, right? But even at $116,000 Bitcoin, you told me offline yesterday, hey, you know, it should be a lot higher considering how the administration is so pro Bitcoin, so crypto, you seem a little bit disappointed in our conversation. Well, I mean disappointed is maybe the wrong word, but I I mean if you if I would have told you what's going on in America nowadays with Bitcoin, uh I think we both would have agreed that 250,000 maybe half a million would be a a realistic price uh target in that situation. But I mean still look from the lows at 15,000 and something uh 3 years ago, Bitcoin is very nicely up. It's done tremendously well. Yes. >> So it always depends on your timing. when did you buy? Right. Um I think it has lost a bit of a momentum overall in that cycle. >> Um I also don't really like the fact that Wall Street has completely embraced Bitcoin >> and that there is now so many derivatives and products trading on top of Bitcoin. >> Yeah. >> Which I feel like is not the real thing anymore. I'm also very skeptic about the whole um Michael Sailor and Treasury kind of companies buying Bitcoin on margin or credit. I don't like that at all. I think it's a house of cars waiting to create really a big drama in the space. >> But we are still in the cycle. It's still looking good. I mean I showed yesterday in the in my presentation u the liquidity charts which are obviously one important driver for all markets and um I mean on a worldwide basis M2 money supply expansion uh dramatic expansion that means Bitcoin also moves higher and seasonality wise usually Bitcoin finds a low somewhere between early September and mid-occtober so we're right in that time frame obviously together with the stock markets still strongly correlated those two asset classes and I assume the last quarter meaning October and then especially November, December should be really good for Bitcoin and some of the alcoins are already starting to outperform Bitcoin since the last few weeks, two months maybe. Um, so overall I'm still very optimistic, let's say, for the next two to 5 months and then we have to see how Bitcoin performs. My price target has been 150,000 uh for that cycle out of this big cup and handle that Bitcoin was working during the bare market. Um yeah, we've reached so far around 125. Now it's trading around 114. Maybe the summer lows are in. I think it was 108. Yeah, doesn't look good. Would I buy Bitcoin at these levels? No. I mean, you you had to buy much earlier, I think. But it's still a good hold position here. And I think uh as I said before the last quarter should be well should be good for >> 150,000 this cycle do you mean by this this year or next year what does this cycle mean? >> I I I mean normally you get like a grand finale like the final exaggeration in the last few weeks or months of a cycle. So that mean that means that the fourth quarter should should bring a nice spike towards 150k. Yeah. >> That's what I expect right now. >> So you say you wouldn't buy at the current price. So for somebody who hasn't gotten into the market yet, should they be waiting for a massive pullback? >> I mean it always depends on your personal risk profile on how much money you have, how how closely you are able to follow the markets, how much experience you have, and you always need to figure out a good lowrisk idea, right? You I mean what's where would be a point uh if you buy Bitcoin right now at let's say 114, where would you say is a point where you have to accept, oh, my idea didn't work out. Bitcoin is doing something completely else. Maybe at 90,000. So that would would mean you needed to stop for 24,000. You would buy one Bitcoin at 114, you would risk 24,000. Um and then on the upside, you could make maybe 35,000. That's not not really a good riskreward. Yeah, you're risking 24 to make 35. It's not really good. That's from that perspective. Uh I I don't think it's really But um I like some of the alcoins still. I mean, I'm still a fan of Solana. I think uh we're going to see a really nice price action there. I I believe Solana can at least for a short period of time go to $1,000 in that cycle at the end of the cycle. So, that's a 5x or 4x from where we are. >> You think Salana can overtake Ethereum and market cap? >> Not necessarily, but it's it's a very powerful chain. Um I think it's a very um userfriendly chain. It's um a retail chain. um and um there's a lot of traffic and action going on and I just simply from a psychological perspective believe uh once we have seen Bitcoin taking out $250 it wanted to see $1,000 back in 2017 and once Ethereum did the same it also the market wanted to see $1,000 for Ethereum. So very simply Solana could go to a,000 in the cycle and could happen actually very quickly. Yeah. So, uh, in this current bull cycle that Bitcoin is heading to 150,000, what happens to the altcoin space, will we see the altcoins catch up and surpass Bitcoin? Where do you think Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise? >> I think the dominance has turned. I think that's also giving us the signal that we're now moving into the final part of that cycle. And I think the alcoins are going to to outperform Bitcoin. Yeah, >> the administration as we've talked about earlier is very much more pro- crypto and friendly than the last administration. The Genius Act recently passed in the summer. It's a new frontier for digital assets. Scott Bent has even said Treasury Secretary Scott Ascent has said that stable coins are the new the new uh digital uh frontier for finance. and he thinks, I'm paraphrasing here, but he issued a statement earlier and he thinks that stable coins will issue the new wave of demand for US treasuries because stable coins USD will be backed by treasuries. This will put the US dollar back on the road map as a dominant currency of the world. How do you respond to that? >> Well, I mean um the Chinese, the Russian and the Indian central bank are buying gold and not Bitcoin. Um the Americans desperately need something new to continue basically running their hedgeimonyy. Um and uh apparently they uh decided it's going to be the digital asset space. It makes sense to a certain level. At the same time uh a digital dollar as a stable coin is just really much better. No, it's not. I mean I'm I'm very much worried about the whole surveillance kind of thing. Uh I'm not sure if Trump himself really understands the whole thing. I think he has a lot of advisers who telling him what to do and what to say. But if he really understood it, I don't know. Um >> wow. >> I it probably is the last chance that America can do because they are not having enough gold. >> You know, it's interesting. I read recently that uh Trump's assets, his corporate and family assets have shifted from real estate predominantly to now crypto and Bitcoin predominant. No, it's it's amazing where I mean, who would have thought that, right, a year ago? >> We're not necessarily taking financial advice from the president here, but just to look at that shift, does that reflect what I think the current general investment landscape is doing, shifting from hard assets to digital assets? >> Yeah, to a certain extent, I I would say yes. I mean, I think first of all, the the Trump family just wants to make as much money as possible. Okay. So that's I think the the the major uh intent here and I think it's very questionable what's going on here. Um very questionable but at the same time of course I mean the the the administration before was also extremely questionable because they were completely against it didn't allow allow any invention here in progress. So I I at least that's what I appreciate now with Trump. But I think it's a turbo casino capitalism kind of style here and Trump makes sure that his family makes a fortune here. And um anything else I don't know is it is it really better? I mean yes they create more uh demand for treasuries if people buy more tether and then this is getting converted into the crypto market. Yeah. Okay. But is this really sustainable? I don't know. I mean uh the whole thing is more and more questionable in my opinion. Um, >> yeah, given uh going back to what you said earlier about buying Bitcoin at current levels, what is your time horizon? I'm assuming it's not 20 30 years here because some people have told me, I'll buy Bitcoin at any level. If it's $100,000, I'll buy. If it's a million dollars, I'll buy. It doesn't really matter. If if they believe Bitcoin is going to 10 million, then what does it matter if they're entry level is 90,000 or 120,000, you know? >> Yeah. Well, David, I mean, I'm now in the financial markets for 30 years. >> Yes. And I have to tell you, I I became more and more agnostic. So, uh I mean there was a time when I was a hardcore gold buck believing the end of the world is around the corner and it didn't happen and played out. I was there was a time when I was like hardcore Bitcoin maxi and and it didn't really play out in that way. And in the end of the day, things played any time. I mean, who knows in 10, 20, 30 years. Yeah, maybe. There's also the risk that in 10, 20, 30 years, Bitcoin is just such an old technology and is completely outdated and not compatible anymore. And AI is running the show and there's so much smarter and they long cracked the code of the blockchain. Who knows? I mean, there's so many things you can come up. So, how am I able to know what is going to happen in 20 30 years? I as a self-employed family dad with two kids and lots of responsibilities. I'm not able to put all my money on Bitcoin believing in it anymore. I mean I I I mean Bitcoin has been life-changing for me. There is no doubt about it. Uh but I'm as I said agnostic and right now what I see Bitcoin is lagging a little bit. Gold is stronger this year. Gold is a fantastic bull market. Um and and yeah, who knows? I mean in the next cycle if Bitcoin comes back down to 40 50,000 I might tell you something completely different than today. But as I laid out before, I think right now riskreward in the short term with the perspective of the next few months, maybe half a year, a year, >> I don't really see a low risk idea here. >> What shifted your perception? You're more agnostic now. What changed in you? Is it just maturity or experience or >> experience? I mean, look, uh I I mean, of course, as an investor and a trader, you constantly make uh good experiences, but also painful experiences in the markets. the markets are very very very complicated and difficult and counterintuitive especially and I mean just one example I mean in 200 uh seven and 8 I was a hardcore gold bug I was 100% in gold silver and the mining stocks believing that if the stock market would crash uh these assets would go through the roof and >> 2008 >> yeah 2008 and then the financial crisis came gold hit the top at 138 on the day when they announced Bur Stern's insolveny and from there it slided down 30 and 3% over the following 6 months and um the mining stocks got completely annihilated. It was a a block worth unbelievable and um nobody saw this coming back then me included. Uh that was a big learning experience for example. So um and of course there happened many along the way. So >> well let's talk about what's going on right now. There's no beer sterns collapse. Leman brothers collapse is not happening right now right the financial system is not you know insolvent we don't have a major world war there's a lot of uncertainty for sure there's some economic slowdown which we can talk about some data showing that for sure but gold like I mentioned in the beginning all-time highs $3,600 unprecedented levels Bitcoin all-time highs S&P 500 all-time highs we had a bit of a glitch in April after liberation day but it quickly rebounded it's looking a lot like 2018 during Trump's first term. Is this the crackup boom you were talk telling me about many years ago? >> Yeah, of course. That's it. >> Tell us about that theory. >> I mean, you and I have been talking about it in many interviews. >> We're not seeing massive uh consumer price inflation, but asset price inflation is here. Well, I mean, if you go in the grocery store, I I mean, I see my favorite olive oil or my favorite espresso being up at least 230% over the last 2 3 years >> and uh we all know that the official inflation uh numbers are rather questionable. Um so yeah, exactly that's what's going on on the on the one hand massive expansion of the money supply and not only in America all over the world. If you look at these numbers for the European Union, if you look for on Japan, on China, everyone is basically printing money. And on the other hand, the consumers are losing the confidence in these currencies, in these fiat currencies because they see that they have less and less purchasing power. And so people are trying to escape into hard assets and that's why in the end of the day, real estate is still holding up rather well. Okay, there is regional differences but overall it's holding up well and in many areas actually real estate is still getting more expensive. Your stock market overall even though there's lots of questionable things happening in the economy and you see that basically a stflationary kind of scenario the stock market is higher because people buy these stocks as an as a as a yeah as an hard asset so to speak. are moving their money out of the the the fiat world and gold, precious metals, mining stocks are moving higher and crypto as well and even your rare stamps and your old-timers are getting more expensive because the fiat money is losing purchasing power and people losing confidence. I mean you can you can see and on many countries uh the the the society is becoming rather unstable. Some of them are actually close to a civil war. Um these are all the consequences out of it. Um, and this is just continuing. I don't see a turnaround here. So, >> for the audience who maybe haven't seen our prior interviews, I encourage you to check them out. What is the crack boom? >> Well, it's a a classic term phrased by Ludik for Misesus uh 110 years ago, I guess, something like this. Um and um it basically says that on the one hand central banks uh politicians uh increasing the fiat money supply basically printing money out of thin air and on the other hand uh consumers and participants in these financial systems are losing the confidence because they can see that the the purchasing power of their fiat currencies is diminishing by the day in the end of the day and um um and that's basically happening at the same time and and and what it means is your assets or your investments can go up on a nominal basis while in real terms they haven't moved at all but people only look at the value of their assets in nominal terms meaning in dollar I mean how many people are actually looking or calculating their net worth in bitcoin and in gold ounces it gives you a totally different picture over a five or 10 year time frame than just looking at it in in terms of how many US dollars is am I uh in total or how many euros or Canadian dollars, right? So, I'm doing this as a little homework every four months uh updating a little Exit sheet, tracking my net worth and um you can see how challenging it can be actually to keep up in in terms of Bitcoin and gold with your total net worth. You know, you might have more euros or or dollars, but not more Bitcoin and gold. >> How much should one hold in Bitcoin and gold relative to the total portfolio net worth? That's a good question and that's an individual answer of course but um >> what is the thought process behind coming up with that answer? >> Well I mean first of all it it depends on your risk tolerance and on your experience and on the time frame you're looking at it. Do you need the money? Do you need liquidity? Is this money you can put away for the next 10 years? Do you have a regular income or do you pending on maybe that money at some point? So there's a lot of questions that people need to figure out, but generally speaking, I've been always over the last 15 20 years recommending to hold, let's say, 10 between between 10 and 25% of your net worth in physical gold, silver, and platinum. Um, and with Bitcoin, yeah, I mean, of course, if you've been early, this part of your portfolio has been risen a lot over the years. Um if you buy it now at these levels, I would say anything between 1 and maybe 6% uh uh Bitcoin um yep yep you can do but as we said initially I personally don't see a real uh lowrisk um entry right now but if you hold Bitcoin and let's say the cycle really continues until 150 I would definitely trim down a little bit because in the end of the day uh the money and risk management is is the most important part of your investments and your portfolio. By the way, you told me personal stories of, you know, you and your family experiencing very high inflation and that's what >> prompted you to look into the precious metal space. >> Okay. >> So, hard assets fundamentally, why are hard assets a good inflation hedge? >> What's the theory behind that? >> Because you cannot create them out of thin air. I mean, >> we are at a mining conference here. >> Yes. If you talk to all these companies and you listen their stories and their pitch and everything and every time it's the same thing. I mean, it's very very complicated to find the gold and then to get the permits, the money to build the mine and then finally get the gold out of the ground and get into production. It's like a 10, 15 year process, right? While your central banker pushes one button and there it is basically the money out of thin air. Um and um so uh that's the theory behind hard assets and the same is true with like good companies. I mean it takes years to build a really good company and the same is also true for real estate. I mean it's still an effort to build a house. Yes, you can do today with 3D printing and AI. It's much easier than maybe a few years ago but still it takes an effort and you need raw materials for it. And with Bitcoin, I mean, there's a complicated uh uh calculating process, algorithms. Uh so it's much more complex than just pushing a button because you can create as a bank, as a central bank, money out of thin air. So that's uh the idea behind it and it's been always like this. >> What are now the current drivers of the gold price in 2025? Over the last couple of years, there's been a interesting shift in correlation between gold and risk assets, including stocks and bitcoin. In 2022, for example, when stocks fell and bitcoin fell, gold fell alongside. And in 202, well, since 2023, end of 2023 to now, when all the other assets have been rising, gold have risen has risen alongside risk assets as well. So, the positive correlation is now becoming a dominant theme in gold. Well, I mean, first of all, in in that uh 2022 when the Fed started hiking interest rates and everything came under pressure, Bitcoin went down to $15,800 from 69,000. Uh and gold came down to 1615 fromish um and had a triple low more or less 3 years ago. But gold held up much better during that time than everything else. So I remember being very happy having a large chunk of my portfolio in physical gold cuz it it basically stabilized and was rather in a safe haven anchor in that time when everything else was plummeting. So um since then yeah gold is up 130% since that triple low 3 years ago and um you asked for the driver. So in my presentation yesterday in the morning here at the conference I presented my take on it. I think there's four big very important micro drivers for gold. Um uh the first one I mentioned it before already M2 money supply the liquidity basically in the system constantly being expanded over the last few years and especially now again in the last few months and not only in America but also in in um the Euro zone in Japan in China wherever you go basically if you would look at South a South Africa or or Brazil you would basically see similar uh numbers. So liquidity expansion. Second big driver is the bare market and bonds. Um especially in in the in the long-term bonds. So the long end of the bond market, I think the Fed has lost control over it already. Uh we have still a rather persistent inflation. And if you're an institutional investor um and you have to seek safe, conservative long-term bonds and now you are in a bare market in bonds, it's very challenging. So I assume more and more institutional money will go into gold because it's the only other asset that they can buy. Um so that's the second driver. Uh the third driver is central bank buying. We haven't seen that in like decades that strong demand from central banks. Um, of course it it it increased dramatically since Russia invaded Ukraine when the whole world realized like, wo, the Americans, NATO, the Europeans just can confiscate our assets whenever, however they want. So now lots of emerging market, central banks and nations are trying to diversify themselves out of the dollar, out of the euro dorization. Central banks are buying gold. They don't chase gold, but they also don't really care about $100, $200. So that's exactly what we've seen over the last 14 months whenever there was a consolidation gold. You didn't really had a big pullback because very quickly physical demand showed up in the market again. And uh the last one which is also very important, probably the most important besides the central banks is China. China is buying gold like crazy. The people in China are buying gold. They they love gold and um the central bank is also buying gold on a consistent monthly basis. Basically, go China is the largest gold producer already and they cons consistently buy more gold. They use this of course as a way also to attack America because um gold is the antidote to the American fiat dollar money system and um they plan to build uh gold vaults in many other countries. So if they do their trade business with Saudi Arabia and they buy the oil from the Saudis, they will give them the remimi and the Saudis can take these rem in their own country, go to the vault. Here's the paper remi show me the gold. And I mean this is what the Chinese are working on to inject confidence into their Juan kind of system building an alternative system to the to the dollar system. And that's not going away. Those four drivers that I just mentioned, I mean they're going to be around for the next 1 2 3 years at least. It could may maybe take a decade or even longer until this fully plays out and I think during that time gold will be strongly supported. there will be strong physical demand and out of the consequences also out of those four drivers is that you are seeing now the unwinding of that 50 plus decade Anglo-Saxon paper gold pony scheme kind of system right so we know that in the past five uh decades uh the price making or the proc finding for gold um has been dominated by trading 200 paper ounces of gold for one real ounce of gold. That's how mainly the price finding has basically happened. And this is being unwinded now. And this can take a long time. And um again, I just mentioned it before. Gold is super strong. No real pullbacks here. No dips. People are chasing running behind the train. Uh it just pushes higher. And whenever there is a dip immediately big hands showing up with physical demand and um I think it's super bullish. Gold is clearly in a secular bull market. I think the price targets that you and I were talking about 5 years uh uh around $9,000 if you remember. >> Yeah. >> Um um I I think that's still the case. Uh we probably have to revise them and and it's probably going to go even higher. The only caveat would be if we see gold now really accelerating dramatically over the next few months and maybe one two years doubling in price immediately and running to maybe 8 9,000 in in the next one or two years then it would probably have the characteristics of more of a bubble and we would have to be careful. But if it's just pushing higher like it's been doing now the last 14 months I think it's very healthy. It's very sustainable and we're going to see much higher prices and this can last for at least a few more years at least. That's a good point. Our mutual friend Ronnie Stuffler said that uh this has run up even faster than his expectations. Now, historically, gold has not hit, you know, 130% gains in a matter of 18 months or so. So, it is rather large a move even for gold's history. Does it concern you at all how fast it's moved in the last two two years? I mean, and from a trader perspective, if you are trying to catch these shorter term moves, you always have to be aware that the market is pretty overbought, right? And it can always have a a $100 pullback in gold is nothing nowadays. Can happen anytime um or even a larger pullback, but uh I don't see any real signs of a bubble yet. I mean, I don't see that the mainstream is celebrating in euphoria their gold investments. I don't see it. value. >> How would you evaluate a bubble for something like gold or Bitcoin that doesn't have cash flows? You take a stock for example, something looks overvalued or the company isn't generating any cash and it's trading at I don't know 100 times multiple something like that, right? But for gold, it's a little bit different. >> Well, I mean, you you have to always stick with the classic sentiment kind of indicators and when everybody's talking about it and everybody is celebrating their gold investments and telling you which gold mining stock to buy and your tax hasn't told me. Exactly. Exactly. Uh and also from a price. Oh, by the way, one sentiment uh indicator which is of course the best ever is the front page indicator, but it shows up only once in 10 years. Yeah. >> So at the top in uh 2011 when gold hit 1920 back then. The German yellow press built Titon, they had on their front page like everything in gold and that was exactly on the day of the top. Unbelievable the timing. So you need to be aware of these kind of informations but you have to be very patient because those type of signals show up uh yeah maybe once in a decade. Um and and um another indication might be for example if an asset doubles in a very short period of time. So coming back to Bitcoin for example, I remember uh the the cycle that ended and topped in 2017 for example. Bitcoin had a very nice rally and then went from 5 to 10k already very quickly and then doubled from 10k to 20k within a matter of just 2 weeks I think and that's the typical signal when an asset class that it had a massive bull run is doubling within just a few days or a few weeks. That's usually the top signal. And you had a similar price behavior for gold for example in 1980. Uh it went from $400 to $890 just in the last days of that bull market that started in the early 1970s and then in January 1980 uh within two weeks gold doubled and that was the top. So these are the signals that you need to look for. But of course we haven't seen anything like this. So, and if if we talk about the precious metals bull market, usually a top a very important long-term bull market top coincides with silver running the show. So, we haven't seen silver really showing up and doing its own thing yet. It's been a nice uptrend. It it's a strong rally uh but uh silver is not like going completely nuts and berserk here. So, we still the best part is still to come in in the precious metals market. Well, speaking of that, uh, 5 years ago, you told me that gold could touch $9,000 within 10 years. This is an article actually quoting our interview from another news source. Uh, it it made the rounds of the internet. At the time, the number was, you know, sensational, but actually now at $3,600 an ounce, that's only less than tripling from from here. Doesn't seem that far-fetched anymore. In 5 years, are you still, you know, 9,000? Does it still make sense? >> Yeah, I think at least. I mean, just look at the the M2 money supply. I mean, this is all going exponential. It's an exponential function and there's no turning back anymore. I mean, and anybody who tried to do something uh against it is is basically unable to to progress. I mean, you see what happened with the Trump administration initially, their big plans to cut budgets here and there, and now you don't hear anything about this anymore because it's simply impossible to cut all these benefits for all these people in responsible positions. Um, so the money printing will continue and that will devaluate your currency or the purchasing power of your currency. on the market activity overall right now. For example, this week news came out that uh the labor market may be weaker than initially expected. Uh the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down uh their non-farm payroll numbers again. Now, the labor market added 900,000 fewer jobs in the last 12 months ending March 2025 than have been earlier reported. And so this was the biggest downward revision in many, many years. That coupled with the fact that there's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding trade, there's a war ongoing and not only the Middle East, but also Ukraine hasn't been resolved yet. If you just take those things in isolation, people are worried about losing their jobs because of tariffs, inflation fears are starting to creep back up. If you just told me that in an isolated bubble, I would not have told you that. I expect new all-time highs for all asset classes basically except oil of which we can mention at the end. You know why is the crackup boom happening now is my question. >> Uh well I mean it's ongoing. I mean it's like the frog in the hot water like people don't really realizing it but it's happening and only at some point when like there is extreme speculation then some of the hot air or the pressure has to be relief but other than that this is just continuing and most of the people actually uh are are concerned with totally different things than than their investments because they are busy chasing their little life from 9 to5 in a job or actually surviving making needs end at the end of the month. So uh uh and there's on the other hand huge amounts of liquidity uh being controlled by very few people actually and and and big trading companies big big hedge funds which uh big um algorithms uh and bots and um uh it's always I mean remember in uh late March early April we had the stock market panic Bitcoin tanked as well and the final days of that selloff panic also silver and gold came under pressure and then miraculously a few days later liquidity appears again and 2 months later stock markets are at a new alltime high. >> Yeah. >> And and that's the playbook uh for the last few years and I think this will simply continue and uh from a micro perspective we have a stagnating economy situation. We have basically no real growth anymore and if it's growth it's all artificially thanks to money printing or fiscal stimulus by the state. And um on the other hand, yeah, the inflation remains persistent because of the money printing and you put this together and you have stlflation which is a terrible scenario for for the normal people in the street. But anybody who knows how to play the markets can make a killing because these moves that we've seen now in in gold and silver and which I assume we're going to see in Bitcoin in the stock market in in the fourth quarter. I mean the Santa Claus and yeah end really is around the corner usually starts around mid October. So I mean you if you know what you're doing and in the markets you can make a killing. But the normal people in the streets usually don't have that money and and they have no clue about the markets and they're the best case occupied with their beer in the evening and watching soccer games you know. >> Yes. Uh well that that would be nice instead of worrying about my 40. >> That's the best case I see there. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well do you think current policies are creating a bifurcation between uh Main Street and Wall Street. On the one hand, we have deregulation that's perhaps helping corporations and boosting equity values. On the other hand, trade policies are slowing down labor growth and wages. >> They do. Yeah, of course. I mean, that created a lot of uncertainty on a worldwide basis. Um, >> so I guess logically it makes sense that there's this divergence between the working class and their livelihoods and let's say corporate valuations. >> Yeah. Yeah. Of course. I mean it's it's an ongoing trend that this not started yesterday. I mean this is intensifying already since the the financial crisis right and people with money it's much easier for them to make more money >> while for the vast majority of the population it has become more and more difficult to make a living. So that's very unfortunate. Um and that's why you see the the the escalating tensions within the societies everywhere, right? I mean there's a few other reasons for that as well, but but this is one of course it's very important. I mean if if a society is doing well in general, um it's going to be peaceful and people live in harmony together. If if everybody's fighting to survive, it's a totally different story. >> Yes. Finally, let's touch on oil. something you're analyzing now. >> Oil has um has not breached above $70 for quite some time and in fact been trading rangebound since the beginning of since basically June after the scare around the Iranian situation. What's uh what are the key drivers around oil right now? >> Well, I mean of course oil also is uh strongly correlated with the economy itself. So if you have a weaker economy that that also gives some some challenges to the oil price. But um my thinking is more of a longer term contrarian kind of point of view. I uh I mean I can see everybody's talking Bitcoin, everybody's taking talking tech stocks now, gold, the miners, silver, all doing really well. And I'm always interested and intrigued by something that is completely out of fashion. Yes. >> Nobody's talking about it and nobody's invested in. And that's where you find these lowrisk uh opportunities where you have to have a small risk but a huge upside, right? That's what you're looking for. And I think that's something uh you you can now probably find in the in the oil sector. It's maybe not that extremely urgent here, but over the next half a year, I could very well imagine that uh it makes really sense to to to shift a part of my portfolio into that sector. I'm building positions but still slow and I'm still doing more homework because oil usually is not the sector that I'm uh very familiar with but I know the way to play it for example um which also means a little bit less risk uh is is dividend blue chips in the oil sector you can collect nice cash flow which is something that I'm very interested in and um these are probably stocks you can hold at least for the next 3 four years uh fundamentally speaking I think that this whole fracking boom in America since the the big top in 2007 before the financial crisis or 200 yeah 2007 when when oil went to $150 nearly. Um there was a top of the bull market back then and we've seen an ABC correction over the following uh 13 years. We got this low at the COVID crash when oil traded negative. Then we had this first leg up a first kind of like stabilization get dead cat bounce or recovery however you want to call it. And now as you rightly said over the last 2 3 years oil did nothing than just going sideways and lower. But I think the the mood is completely beaten down. Nobody's interested in. And u I think the fracking boom which was one of the the big reasons why oil was in this long bare market. I think it's coming to an end. I think the supply uh from uh from these uh oil sources uh has topped out uh and and we probably we're going to see a stable demand situation but probably issues on the supply side and we also mentioned before already um war in the Middle East all these tensions which could continue between the east and the west overall um Iran was attacked by Israel. I mean, these are all reasons uh where the oil price quickly can can spike and and move higher. So, I think it's it's a long-term uh kind of shift and and it's there's no urgency here right now, but uh I would suggest start taking a look at that sector. It's very much out of fashion. That's one of the very few sectors that I would call it contrarian player right now. >> Interesting. Okay. Well, we'll follow more of your work. Where can we follow your work, Florian? >> Uh Minest Consulting in my website. uh people get all the daily, weekly, monthly research. Uh I can suggest to subscribe on my substack. We have a daily call on silver and gold. You can get this right in your email box for free. I think it's very helpful if you follow these markets and of course on X, LinkedIn, uh and all the other social media profiles and of course the David Lynn show. >> Yes. Yes. We'll have you more often. Follow uh Florian in the links down below. Thank you very much, Florian. >> Always a pleasure, David. >> Pleasure. My pleasure is all mine. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
How Far Will Gold, Bitcoin Rallies Go? ‘Crack-Up’ Boom Supercharge Now | Florian Grummes
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Gold is clearly in a secular bull market. The price targets that you and I were talking about 5 years around $9,000. We probably have to revise them and and it's probably going to go even higher. The Chinese, the Russian and the Indian central bank are buying gold and not Bitcoin. The Americans desperately need something new to running their hedgeimony. They are decided it's going to be the digital asset space. It probably is the last chance that America can do because they are not having enough gold. We have to see how Bitcoin performs. My price target has been I believe Solana can at least for a short period of time go to [Applause] [Music] gold. Bitcoin stocks have all hit new alltime highs this year. Can the momentum sustain? We'll find out with our next guest, Florian Gumis, managing director of Minus Touch Consulting. We're here at the Precious Metal Summit in Beaver Creek. Welcome, Furian. Good to see you as always. >> Thanks for having me again. Pleasure to see you. >> Your work covers gold, Bitcoin, oil. Now, let's talk about gold and Bitcoin first. You're a little bit less bullish on Bitcoin now than I remember last year. I think you've told me in the past um many years ago actually, that Bitcoin was going to be the best performing asset. You were right on that call. Uh this year gold has outperformed most other asset classes, right? But even at $116,000 Bitcoin, you told me offline yesterday, hey, you know, it should be a lot higher considering how the administration is so pro Bitcoin, so crypto, you seem a little bit disappointed in our conversation. Well, I mean disappointed is maybe the wrong word, but I I mean if you if I would have told you what's going on in America nowadays with Bitcoin, uh I think we both would have agreed that 250,000 maybe half a million would be a a realistic price uh target in that situation. But I mean still look from the lows at 15,000 and something uh 3 years ago, Bitcoin is very nicely up. It's done tremendously well. Yes. >> So it always depends on your timing. when did you buy? Right. Um I think it has lost a bit of a momentum overall in that cycle. >> Um I also don't really like the fact that Wall Street has completely embraced Bitcoin >> and that there is now so many derivatives and products trading on top of Bitcoin. >> Yeah. >> Which I feel like is not the real thing anymore. I'm also very skeptic about the whole um Michael Sailor and Treasury kind of companies buying Bitcoin on margin or credit. I don't like that at all. I think it's a house of cars waiting to create really a big drama in the space. >> But we are still in the cycle. It's still looking good. I mean I showed yesterday in the in my presentation u the liquidity charts which are obviously one important driver for all markets and um I mean on a worldwide basis M2 money supply expansion uh dramatic expansion that means Bitcoin also moves higher and seasonality wise usually Bitcoin finds a low somewhere between early September and mid-occtober so we're right in that time frame obviously together with the stock markets still strongly correlated those two asset classes and I assume the last quarter meaning October and then especially November, December should be really good for Bitcoin and some of the alcoins are already starting to outperform Bitcoin since the last few weeks, two months maybe. Um, so overall I'm still very optimistic, let's say, for the next two to 5 months and then we have to see how Bitcoin performs. My price target has been 150,000 uh for that cycle out of this big cup and handle that Bitcoin was working during the bare market. Um yeah, we've reached so far around 125. Now it's trading around 114. Maybe the summer lows are in. I think it was 108. Yeah, doesn't look good. Would I buy Bitcoin at these levels? No. I mean, you you had to buy much earlier, I think. But it's still a good hold position here. And I think uh as I said before the last quarter should be well should be good for >> 150,000 this cycle do you mean by this this year or next year what does this cycle mean? >> I I I mean normally you get like a grand finale like the final exaggeration in the last few weeks or months of a cycle. So that mean that means that the fourth quarter should should bring a nice spike towards 150k. Yeah. >> That's what I expect right now. >> So you say you wouldn't buy at the current price. So for somebody who hasn't gotten into the market yet, should they be waiting for a massive pullback? >> I mean it always depends on your personal risk profile on how much money you have, how how closely you are able to follow the markets, how much experience you have, and you always need to figure out a good lowrisk idea, right? You I mean what's where would be a point uh if you buy Bitcoin right now at let's say 114, where would you say is a point where you have to accept, oh, my idea didn't work out. Bitcoin is doing something completely else. Maybe at 90,000. So that would would mean you needed to stop for 24,000. You would buy one Bitcoin at 114, you would risk 24,000. Um and then on the upside, you could make maybe 35,000. That's not not really a good riskreward. Yeah, you're risking 24 to make 35. It's not really good. That's from that perspective. Uh I I don't think it's really But um I like some of the alcoins still. I mean, I'm still a fan of Solana. I think uh we're going to see a really nice price action there. I I believe Solana can at least for a short period of time go to $1,000 in that cycle at the end of the cycle. So, that's a 5x or 4x from where we are. >> You think Salana can overtake Ethereum and market cap? >> Not necessarily, but it's it's a very powerful chain. Um I think it's a very um userfriendly chain. It's um a retail chain. um and um there's a lot of traffic and action going on and I just simply from a psychological perspective believe uh once we have seen Bitcoin taking out $250 it wanted to see $1,000 back in 2017 and once Ethereum did the same it also the market wanted to see $1,000 for Ethereum. So very simply Solana could go to a,000 in the cycle and could happen actually very quickly. Yeah. So, uh, in this current bull cycle that Bitcoin is heading to 150,000, what happens to the altcoin space, will we see the altcoins catch up and surpass Bitcoin? Where do you think Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise? >> I think the dominance has turned. I think that's also giving us the signal that we're now moving into the final part of that cycle. And I think the alcoins are going to to outperform Bitcoin. Yeah, >> the administration as we've talked about earlier is very much more pro- crypto and friendly than the last administration. The Genius Act recently passed in the summer. It's a new frontier for digital assets. Scott Bent has even said Treasury Secretary Scott Ascent has said that stable coins are the new the new uh digital uh frontier for finance. and he thinks, I'm paraphrasing here, but he issued a statement earlier and he thinks that stable coins will issue the new wave of demand for US treasuries because stable coins USD will be backed by treasuries. This will put the US dollar back on the road map as a dominant currency of the world. How do you respond to that? >> Well, I mean um the Chinese, the Russian and the Indian central bank are buying gold and not Bitcoin. Um the Americans desperately need something new to continue basically running their hedgeimonyy. Um and uh apparently they uh decided it's going to be the digital asset space. It makes sense to a certain level. At the same time uh a digital dollar as a stable coin is just really much better. No, it's not. I mean I'm I'm very much worried about the whole surveillance kind of thing. Uh I'm not sure if Trump himself really understands the whole thing. I think he has a lot of advisers who telling him what to do and what to say. But if he really understood it, I don't know. Um >> wow. >> I it probably is the last chance that America can do because they are not having enough gold. >> You know, it's interesting. I read recently that uh Trump's assets, his corporate and family assets have shifted from real estate predominantly to now crypto and Bitcoin predominant. No, it's it's amazing where I mean, who would have thought that, right, a year ago? >> We're not necessarily taking financial advice from the president here, but just to look at that shift, does that reflect what I think the current general investment landscape is doing, shifting from hard assets to digital assets? >> Yeah, to a certain extent, I I would say yes. I mean, I think first of all, the the Trump family just wants to make as much money as possible. Okay. So that's I think the the the major uh intent here and I think it's very questionable what's going on here. Um very questionable but at the same time of course I mean the the the administration before was also extremely questionable because they were completely against it didn't allow allow any invention here in progress. So I I at least that's what I appreciate now with Trump. But I think it's a turbo casino capitalism kind of style here and Trump makes sure that his family makes a fortune here. And um anything else I don't know is it is it really better? I mean yes they create more uh demand for treasuries if people buy more tether and then this is getting converted into the crypto market. Yeah. Okay. But is this really sustainable? I don't know. I mean uh the whole thing is more and more questionable in my opinion. Um, >> yeah, given uh going back to what you said earlier about buying Bitcoin at current levels, what is your time horizon? I'm assuming it's not 20 30 years here because some people have told me, I'll buy Bitcoin at any level. If it's $100,000, I'll buy. If it's a million dollars, I'll buy. It doesn't really matter. If if they believe Bitcoin is going to 10 million, then what does it matter if they're entry level is 90,000 or 120,000, you know? >> Yeah. Well, David, I mean, I'm now in the financial markets for 30 years. >> Yes. And I have to tell you, I I became more and more agnostic. So, uh I mean there was a time when I was a hardcore gold buck believing the end of the world is around the corner and it didn't happen and played out. I was there was a time when I was like hardcore Bitcoin maxi and and it didn't really play out in that way. And in the end of the day, things played any time. I mean, who knows in 10, 20, 30 years. Yeah, maybe. There's also the risk that in 10, 20, 30 years, Bitcoin is just such an old technology and is completely outdated and not compatible anymore. And AI is running the show and there's so much smarter and they long cracked the code of the blockchain. Who knows? I mean, there's so many things you can come up. So, how am I able to know what is going to happen in 20 30 years? I as a self-employed family dad with two kids and lots of responsibilities. I'm not able to put all my money on Bitcoin believing in it anymore. I mean I I I mean Bitcoin has been life-changing for me. There is no doubt about it. Uh but I'm as I said agnostic and right now what I see Bitcoin is lagging a little bit. Gold is stronger this year. Gold is a fantastic bull market. Um and and yeah, who knows? I mean in the next cycle if Bitcoin comes back down to 40 50,000 I might tell you something completely different than today. But as I laid out before, I think right now riskreward in the short term with the perspective of the next few months, maybe half a year, a year, >> I don't really see a low risk idea here. >> What shifted your perception? You're more agnostic now. What changed in you? Is it just maturity or experience or >> experience? I mean, look, uh I I mean, of course, as an investor and a trader, you constantly make uh good experiences, but also painful experiences in the markets. the markets are very very very complicated and difficult and counterintuitive especially and I mean just one example I mean in 200 uh seven and 8 I was a hardcore gold bug I was 100% in gold silver and the mining stocks believing that if the stock market would crash uh these assets would go through the roof and >> 2008 >> yeah 2008 and then the financial crisis came gold hit the top at 138 on the day when they announced Bur Stern's insolveny and from there it slided down 30 and 3% over the following 6 months and um the mining stocks got completely annihilated. It was a a block worth unbelievable and um nobody saw this coming back then me included. Uh that was a big learning experience for example. So um and of course there happened many along the way. So >> well let's talk about what's going on right now. There's no beer sterns collapse. Leman brothers collapse is not happening right now right the financial system is not you know insolvent we don't have a major world war there's a lot of uncertainty for sure there's some economic slowdown which we can talk about some data showing that for sure but gold like I mentioned in the beginning all-time highs $3,600 unprecedented levels Bitcoin all-time highs S&P 500 all-time highs we had a bit of a glitch in April after liberation day but it quickly rebounded it's looking a lot like 2018 during Trump's first term. Is this the crackup boom you were talk telling me about many years ago? >> Yeah, of course. That's it. >> Tell us about that theory. >> I mean, you and I have been talking about it in many interviews. >> We're not seeing massive uh consumer price inflation, but asset price inflation is here. Well, I mean, if you go in the grocery store, I I mean, I see my favorite olive oil or my favorite espresso being up at least 230% over the last 2 3 years >> and uh we all know that the official inflation uh numbers are rather questionable. Um so yeah, exactly that's what's going on on the on the one hand massive expansion of the money supply and not only in America all over the world. If you look at these numbers for the European Union, if you look for on Japan, on China, everyone is basically printing money. And on the other hand, the consumers are losing the confidence in these currencies, in these fiat currencies because they see that they have less and less purchasing power. And so people are trying to escape into hard assets and that's why in the end of the day, real estate is still holding up rather well. Okay, there is regional differences but overall it's holding up well and in many areas actually real estate is still getting more expensive. Your stock market overall even though there's lots of questionable things happening in the economy and you see that basically a stflationary kind of scenario the stock market is higher because people buy these stocks as an as a as a yeah as an hard asset so to speak. are moving their money out of the the the fiat world and gold, precious metals, mining stocks are moving higher and crypto as well and even your rare stamps and your old-timers are getting more expensive because the fiat money is losing purchasing power and people losing confidence. I mean you can you can see and on many countries uh the the the society is becoming rather unstable. Some of them are actually close to a civil war. Um these are all the consequences out of it. Um, and this is just continuing. I don't see a turnaround here. So, >> for the audience who maybe haven't seen our prior interviews, I encourage you to check them out. What is the crack boom? >> Well, it's a a classic term phrased by Ludik for Misesus uh 110 years ago, I guess, something like this. Um and um it basically says that on the one hand central banks uh politicians uh increasing the fiat money supply basically printing money out of thin air and on the other hand uh consumers and participants in these financial systems are losing the confidence because they can see that the the purchasing power of their fiat currencies is diminishing by the day in the end of the day and um um and that's basically happening at the same time and and and what it means is your assets or your investments can go up on a nominal basis while in real terms they haven't moved at all but people only look at the value of their assets in nominal terms meaning in dollar I mean how many people are actually looking or calculating their net worth in bitcoin and in gold ounces it gives you a totally different picture over a five or 10 year time frame than just looking at it in in terms of how many US dollars is am I uh in total or how many euros or Canadian dollars, right? So, I'm doing this as a little homework every four months uh updating a little Exit sheet, tracking my net worth and um you can see how challenging it can be actually to keep up in in terms of Bitcoin and gold with your total net worth. You know, you might have more euros or or dollars, but not more Bitcoin and gold. >> How much should one hold in Bitcoin and gold relative to the total portfolio net worth? That's a good question and that's an individual answer of course but um >> what is the thought process behind coming up with that answer? >> Well I mean first of all it it depends on your risk tolerance and on your experience and on the time frame you're looking at it. Do you need the money? Do you need liquidity? Is this money you can put away for the next 10 years? Do you have a regular income or do you pending on maybe that money at some point? So there's a lot of questions that people need to figure out, but generally speaking, I've been always over the last 15 20 years recommending to hold, let's say, 10 between between 10 and 25% of your net worth in physical gold, silver, and platinum. Um, and with Bitcoin, yeah, I mean, of course, if you've been early, this part of your portfolio has been risen a lot over the years. Um if you buy it now at these levels, I would say anything between 1 and maybe 6% uh uh Bitcoin um yep yep you can do but as we said initially I personally don't see a real uh lowrisk um entry right now but if you hold Bitcoin and let's say the cycle really continues until 150 I would definitely trim down a little bit because in the end of the day uh the money and risk management is is the most important part of your investments and your portfolio. By the way, you told me personal stories of, you know, you and your family experiencing very high inflation and that's what >> prompted you to look into the precious metal space. >> Okay. >> So, hard assets fundamentally, why are hard assets a good inflation hedge? >> What's the theory behind that? >> Because you cannot create them out of thin air. I mean, >> we are at a mining conference here. >> Yes. If you talk to all these companies and you listen their stories and their pitch and everything and every time it's the same thing. I mean, it's very very complicated to find the gold and then to get the permits, the money to build the mine and then finally get the gold out of the ground and get into production. It's like a 10, 15 year process, right? While your central banker pushes one button and there it is basically the money out of thin air. Um and um so uh that's the theory behind hard assets and the same is true with like good companies. I mean it takes years to build a really good company and the same is also true for real estate. I mean it's still an effort to build a house. Yes, you can do today with 3D printing and AI. It's much easier than maybe a few years ago but still it takes an effort and you need raw materials for it. And with Bitcoin, I mean, there's a complicated uh uh calculating process, algorithms. Uh so it's much more complex than just pushing a button because you can create as a bank, as a central bank, money out of thin air. So that's uh the idea behind it and it's been always like this. >> What are now the current drivers of the gold price in 2025? Over the last couple of years, there's been a interesting shift in correlation between gold and risk assets, including stocks and bitcoin. In 2022, for example, when stocks fell and bitcoin fell, gold fell alongside. And in 202, well, since 2023, end of 2023 to now, when all the other assets have been rising, gold have risen has risen alongside risk assets as well. So, the positive correlation is now becoming a dominant theme in gold. Well, I mean, first of all, in in that uh 2022 when the Fed started hiking interest rates and everything came under pressure, Bitcoin went down to $15,800 from 69,000. Uh and gold came down to 1615 fromish um and had a triple low more or less 3 years ago. But gold held up much better during that time than everything else. So I remember being very happy having a large chunk of my portfolio in physical gold cuz it it basically stabilized and was rather in a safe haven anchor in that time when everything else was plummeting. So um since then yeah gold is up 130% since that triple low 3 years ago and um you asked for the driver. So in my presentation yesterday in the morning here at the conference I presented my take on it. I think there's four big very important micro drivers for gold. Um uh the first one I mentioned it before already M2 money supply the liquidity basically in the system constantly being expanded over the last few years and especially now again in the last few months and not only in America but also in in um the Euro zone in Japan in China wherever you go basically if you would look at South a South Africa or or Brazil you would basically see similar uh numbers. So liquidity expansion. Second big driver is the bare market and bonds. Um especially in in the in the long-term bonds. So the long end of the bond market, I think the Fed has lost control over it already. Uh we have still a rather persistent inflation. And if you're an institutional investor um and you have to seek safe, conservative long-term bonds and now you are in a bare market in bonds, it's very challenging. So I assume more and more institutional money will go into gold because it's the only other asset that they can buy. Um so that's the second driver. Uh the third driver is central bank buying. We haven't seen that in like decades that strong demand from central banks. Um, of course it it it increased dramatically since Russia invaded Ukraine when the whole world realized like, wo, the Americans, NATO, the Europeans just can confiscate our assets whenever, however they want. So now lots of emerging market, central banks and nations are trying to diversify themselves out of the dollar, out of the euro dorization. Central banks are buying gold. They don't chase gold, but they also don't really care about $100, $200. So that's exactly what we've seen over the last 14 months whenever there was a consolidation gold. You didn't really had a big pullback because very quickly physical demand showed up in the market again. And uh the last one which is also very important, probably the most important besides the central banks is China. China is buying gold like crazy. The people in China are buying gold. They they love gold and um the central bank is also buying gold on a consistent monthly basis. Basically, go China is the largest gold producer already and they cons consistently buy more gold. They use this of course as a way also to attack America because um gold is the antidote to the American fiat dollar money system and um they plan to build uh gold vaults in many other countries. So if they do their trade business with Saudi Arabia and they buy the oil from the Saudis, they will give them the remimi and the Saudis can take these rem in their own country, go to the vault. Here's the paper remi show me the gold. And I mean this is what the Chinese are working on to inject confidence into their Juan kind of system building an alternative system to the to the dollar system. And that's not going away. Those four drivers that I just mentioned, I mean they're going to be around for the next 1 2 3 years at least. It could may maybe take a decade or even longer until this fully plays out and I think during that time gold will be strongly supported. there will be strong physical demand and out of the consequences also out of those four drivers is that you are seeing now the unwinding of that 50 plus decade Anglo-Saxon paper gold pony scheme kind of system right so we know that in the past five uh decades uh the price making or the proc finding for gold um has been dominated by trading 200 paper ounces of gold for one real ounce of gold. That's how mainly the price finding has basically happened. And this is being unwinded now. And this can take a long time. And um again, I just mentioned it before. Gold is super strong. No real pullbacks here. No dips. People are chasing running behind the train. Uh it just pushes higher. And whenever there is a dip immediately big hands showing up with physical demand and um I think it's super bullish. Gold is clearly in a secular bull market. I think the price targets that you and I were talking about 5 years uh uh around $9,000 if you remember. >> Yeah. >> Um um I I think that's still the case. Uh we probably have to revise them and and it's probably going to go even higher. The only caveat would be if we see gold now really accelerating dramatically over the next few months and maybe one two years doubling in price immediately and running to maybe 8 9,000 in in the next one or two years then it would probably have the characteristics of more of a bubble and we would have to be careful. But if it's just pushing higher like it's been doing now the last 14 months I think it's very healthy. It's very sustainable and we're going to see much higher prices and this can last for at least a few more years at least. That's a good point. Our mutual friend Ronnie Stuffler said that uh this has run up even faster than his expectations. Now, historically, gold has not hit, you know, 130% gains in a matter of 18 months or so. So, it is rather large a move even for gold's history. Does it concern you at all how fast it's moved in the last two two years? I mean, and from a trader perspective, if you are trying to catch these shorter term moves, you always have to be aware that the market is pretty overbought, right? And it can always have a a $100 pullback in gold is nothing nowadays. Can happen anytime um or even a larger pullback, but uh I don't see any real signs of a bubble yet. I mean, I don't see that the mainstream is celebrating in euphoria their gold investments. I don't see it. value. >> How would you evaluate a bubble for something like gold or Bitcoin that doesn't have cash flows? You take a stock for example, something looks overvalued or the company isn't generating any cash and it's trading at I don't know 100 times multiple something like that, right? But for gold, it's a little bit different. >> Well, I mean, you you have to always stick with the classic sentiment kind of indicators and when everybody's talking about it and everybody is celebrating their gold investments and telling you which gold mining stock to buy and your tax hasn't told me. Exactly. Exactly. Uh and also from a price. Oh, by the way, one sentiment uh indicator which is of course the best ever is the front page indicator, but it shows up only once in 10 years. Yeah. >> So at the top in uh 2011 when gold hit 1920 back then. The German yellow press built Titon, they had on their front page like everything in gold and that was exactly on the day of the top. Unbelievable the timing. So you need to be aware of these kind of informations but you have to be very patient because those type of signals show up uh yeah maybe once in a decade. Um and and um another indication might be for example if an asset doubles in a very short period of time. So coming back to Bitcoin for example, I remember uh the the cycle that ended and topped in 2017 for example. Bitcoin had a very nice rally and then went from 5 to 10k already very quickly and then doubled from 10k to 20k within a matter of just 2 weeks I think and that's the typical signal when an asset class that it had a massive bull run is doubling within just a few days or a few weeks. That's usually the top signal. And you had a similar price behavior for gold for example in 1980. Uh it went from $400 to $890 just in the last days of that bull market that started in the early 1970s and then in January 1980 uh within two weeks gold doubled and that was the top. So these are the signals that you need to look for. But of course we haven't seen anything like this. So, and if if we talk about the precious metals bull market, usually a top a very important long-term bull market top coincides with silver running the show. So, we haven't seen silver really showing up and doing its own thing yet. It's been a nice uptrend. It it's a strong rally uh but uh silver is not like going completely nuts and berserk here. So, we still the best part is still to come in in the precious metals market. Well, speaking of that, uh, 5 years ago, you told me that gold could touch $9,000 within 10 years. This is an article actually quoting our interview from another news source. Uh, it it made the rounds of the internet. At the time, the number was, you know, sensational, but actually now at $3,600 an ounce, that's only less than tripling from from here. Doesn't seem that far-fetched anymore. In 5 years, are you still, you know, 9,000? Does it still make sense? >> Yeah, I think at least. I mean, just look at the the M2 money supply. I mean, this is all going exponential. It's an exponential function and there's no turning back anymore. I mean, and anybody who tried to do something uh against it is is basically unable to to progress. I mean, you see what happened with the Trump administration initially, their big plans to cut budgets here and there, and now you don't hear anything about this anymore because it's simply impossible to cut all these benefits for all these people in responsible positions. Um, so the money printing will continue and that will devaluate your currency or the purchasing power of your currency. on the market activity overall right now. For example, this week news came out that uh the labor market may be weaker than initially expected. Uh the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down uh their non-farm payroll numbers again. Now, the labor market added 900,000 fewer jobs in the last 12 months ending March 2025 than have been earlier reported. And so this was the biggest downward revision in many, many years. That coupled with the fact that there's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding trade, there's a war ongoing and not only the Middle East, but also Ukraine hasn't been resolved yet. If you just take those things in isolation, people are worried about losing their jobs because of tariffs, inflation fears are starting to creep back up. If you just told me that in an isolated bubble, I would not have told you that. I expect new all-time highs for all asset classes basically except oil of which we can mention at the end. You know why is the crackup boom happening now is my question. >> Uh well I mean it's ongoing. I mean it's like the frog in the hot water like people don't really realizing it but it's happening and only at some point when like there is extreme speculation then some of the hot air or the pressure has to be relief but other than that this is just continuing and most of the people actually uh are are concerned with totally different things than than their investments because they are busy chasing their little life from 9 to5 in a job or actually surviving making needs end at the end of the month. So uh uh and there's on the other hand huge amounts of liquidity uh being controlled by very few people actually and and and big trading companies big big hedge funds which uh big um algorithms uh and bots and um uh it's always I mean remember in uh late March early April we had the stock market panic Bitcoin tanked as well and the final days of that selloff panic also silver and gold came under pressure and then miraculously a few days later liquidity appears again and 2 months later stock markets are at a new alltime high. >> Yeah. >> And and that's the playbook uh for the last few years and I think this will simply continue and uh from a micro perspective we have a stagnating economy situation. We have basically no real growth anymore and if it's growth it's all artificially thanks to money printing or fiscal stimulus by the state. And um on the other hand, yeah, the inflation remains persistent because of the money printing and you put this together and you have stlflation which is a terrible scenario for for the normal people in the street. But anybody who knows how to play the markets can make a killing because these moves that we've seen now in in gold and silver and which I assume we're going to see in Bitcoin in the stock market in in the fourth quarter. I mean the Santa Claus and yeah end really is around the corner usually starts around mid October. So I mean you if you know what you're doing and in the markets you can make a killing. But the normal people in the streets usually don't have that money and and they have no clue about the markets and they're the best case occupied with their beer in the evening and watching soccer games you know. >> Yes. Uh well that that would be nice instead of worrying about my 40. >> That's the best case I see there. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well do you think current policies are creating a bifurcation between uh Main Street and Wall Street. On the one hand, we have deregulation that's perhaps helping corporations and boosting equity values. On the other hand, trade policies are slowing down labor growth and wages. >> They do. Yeah, of course. I mean, that created a lot of uncertainty on a worldwide basis. Um, >> so I guess logically it makes sense that there's this divergence between the working class and their livelihoods and let's say corporate valuations. >> Yeah. Yeah. Of course. I mean it's it's an ongoing trend that this not started yesterday. I mean this is intensifying already since the the financial crisis right and people with money it's much easier for them to make more money >> while for the vast majority of the population it has become more and more difficult to make a living. So that's very unfortunate. Um and that's why you see the the the escalating tensions within the societies everywhere, right? I mean there's a few other reasons for that as well, but but this is one of course it's very important. I mean if if a society is doing well in general, um it's going to be peaceful and people live in harmony together. If if everybody's fighting to survive, it's a totally different story. >> Yes. Finally, let's touch on oil. something you're analyzing now. >> Oil has um has not breached above $70 for quite some time and in fact been trading rangebound since the beginning of since basically June after the scare around the Iranian situation. What's uh what are the key drivers around oil right now? >> Well, I mean of course oil also is uh strongly correlated with the economy itself. So if you have a weaker economy that that also gives some some challenges to the oil price. But um my thinking is more of a longer term contrarian kind of point of view. I uh I mean I can see everybody's talking Bitcoin, everybody's taking talking tech stocks now, gold, the miners, silver, all doing really well. And I'm always interested and intrigued by something that is completely out of fashion. Yes. >> Nobody's talking about it and nobody's invested in. And that's where you find these lowrisk uh opportunities where you have to have a small risk but a huge upside, right? That's what you're looking for. And I think that's something uh you you can now probably find in the in the oil sector. It's maybe not that extremely urgent here, but over the next half a year, I could very well imagine that uh it makes really sense to to to shift a part of my portfolio into that sector. I'm building positions but still slow and I'm still doing more homework because oil usually is not the sector that I'm uh very familiar with but I know the way to play it for example um which also means a little bit less risk uh is is dividend blue chips in the oil sector you can collect nice cash flow which is something that I'm very interested in and um these are probably stocks you can hold at least for the next 3 four years uh fundamentally speaking I think that this whole fracking boom in America since the the big top in 2007 before the financial crisis or 200 yeah 2007 when when oil went to $150 nearly. Um there was a top of the bull market back then and we've seen an ABC correction over the following uh 13 years. We got this low at the COVID crash when oil traded negative. Then we had this first leg up a first kind of like stabilization get dead cat bounce or recovery however you want to call it. And now as you rightly said over the last 2 3 years oil did nothing than just going sideways and lower. But I think the the mood is completely beaten down. Nobody's interested in. And u I think the fracking boom which was one of the the big reasons why oil was in this long bare market. I think it's coming to an end. I think the supply uh from uh from these uh oil sources uh has topped out uh and and we probably we're going to see a stable demand situation but probably issues on the supply side and we also mentioned before already um war in the Middle East all these tensions which could continue between the east and the west overall um Iran was attacked by Israel. I mean, these are all reasons uh where the oil price quickly can can spike and and move higher. So, I think it's it's a long-term uh kind of shift and and it's there's no urgency here right now, but uh I would suggest start taking a look at that sector. It's very much out of fashion. That's one of the very few sectors that I would call it contrarian player right now. >> Interesting. Okay. Well, we'll follow more of your work. Where can we follow your work, Florian? >> Uh Minest Consulting in my website. uh people get all the daily, weekly, monthly research. Uh I can suggest to subscribe on my substack. We have a daily call on silver and gold. You can get this right in your email box for free. I think it's very helpful if you follow these markets and of course on X, LinkedIn, uh and all the other social media profiles and of course the David Lynn show. >> Yes. Yes. We'll have you more often. Follow uh Florian in the links down below. Thank you very much, Florian. >> Always a pleasure, David. >> Pleasure. My pleasure is all mine. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.