What They're Not Telling Us About The Coming Conflict – This Attack is 'Imminent': Simon Hunt
Summary
Geopolitical Tensions: Simon Hunt discusses the rising geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on the potential for a joint US-Israel strike on Iran and its implications for global stability.
Energy Dynamics: The podcast highlights the strategic energy agreements between Russia and China, emphasizing the geopolitical shift as Russia increases natural gas supplies to China, potentially impacting EU energy security.
US Foreign Policy: The discussion covers US actions in Venezuela, suggesting a false flag operation to justify regime change aimed at controlling Venezuela's vast oil resources.
Middle East Conflict: Hunt explores the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Israel's stance towards Gaza and the strategic implications of a US-Israel attack on Iran.
Gold Market: The podcast notes the recent surge in gold prices, attributing it to geopolitical instability and predicting a long-term bull market driven by a weakening US dollar and increasing global demand for gold as a monetary asset.
Copper Market Analysis: Hunt provides a detailed analysis of the copper market, forecasting a potential price correction due to current market surpluses, while acknowledging long-term bullish factors like electrification and renewable energy demands.
BRICS and Global Trade: The discussion highlights BRICS countries' move towards using gold for trade settlements, potentially challenging the US dollar's dominance in global trade.
Investment Implications: The podcast suggests that investors should consider the macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influencing commodity markets, particularly focusing on gold and copper as strategic investments.
Transcript
Hello everybody. Welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. On this episode, I'm thrilled to welcome Simon Hunt to the program. The founder of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, which focuses on the interreationship of geopolitics and economic activity with a focus on China and the copper market. We are honing in on rising geopolitical tensions and global conflict today with Simon warning that he believes the recent meeting of top military brass in the US was a decoy to hide the real activity going on behind the scenes. Preparation for a joint strike on Iran with Israel. We discussed the implications of this new war breaking out in the Middle East. How will Russia and China react? and how will the Trump administration sell this war to the American public? We also discuss gold's tremendous run. And you'll want to stick around to the end of the interview where Simon provides one of the most nuanced and detailed takes on the copper market that I've ever heard on this show. So, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Simon Hunt. Simon Hunt, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. There is so much happening in the world today for us to discuss, but I want to start by getting your 60,000 ft overview of the current state of global geopolitics, financial markets, the global economy. Anything that comes top of mind to you right now. Let's start by zooming out and then we'll we'll hone in on a few different aspects. What what are you watching right now that you think more people should be paying attention to in those realms? Unfortunately, we have the combination of a very fragile global financial system that includes America as well as the growing risk that Trump wants to derail the BRICS group of nations simply because if they mature then they will be a threat to America's dollar and political hedgemony. So everything that we see in the big wide world at the moment, whether it be in the Middle East or in Europe or the likelihood that America is going to attempt regime change in Venezuela. It's all part of this what one really should call the global war. The war between the way that the world has been run for the last 80 years and the way that a large part of the world wants to see change. So all of that on top of a fragile, debtridden global financial system. >> Well, let's hone in on a few specific aspects there. You mentioned the bricks. Pretty big news coming out of China recently. We had Russia and China signing anou for natural gas deliveries, increased natural gas deliveries through the already existing power of Siberia 1 pipeline and of course uh the upcoming power of Siberia 2 pipeline which is currently in the planning phase. They're going to send a bunch of natural gas through that sell Russia selling it to China. At least we have thisou in place. not totally official yet, but of course a lot of people are pointing out this is natural gas that could be flowing to EU member states which are currently experiencing very high energy costs due to of course the political class sanctioning Russian energy. Um what are your thoughts? How do you think this will all play out and and how does this play into the whole bricks versus the west story? >> Another big question. Um, first of all, my understanding is that Siberia Gas 2, it is an official contract. It's got beyond the planning stage. What are the consequences of Russia supplying increasing amounts of energy to China? The big picture, part of the big picture is that Washington wants control of global energy sources. This is a long-term plan because if they have that then they control the world and retain their hegemonic status. So part of probably the primary reason why it's very likely given the way that America has relocated 10 warships and has activated their old Puerto Rico air base and has positioned special forces around Venezuela. It does look as though there is going to be a serious attempt at causing regime change in Venezuela, either by a show of force or else by infiltration of special forces into the country. What is very interesting is it's only very recently that Venezuela and Russia have signed a strategic alliance. So is that going to be enough to deter Trump from his attempt attempted regime change in Venezuela? The second part of uh obtaining control over global energy sources is the very strong probability that there will be a renewed and more serious Israel stroke American attack on Iran. Israel wants it because Iran is a hurdle towards Israel objective of creating greater Israel. And it is also the head of the snake in their views because of Iran's support of Hezbollah Hamus and the Houthis. From America's point of view, Iran is perceived incorrectly in my view to be the weak link in bricks. Therefore, dismember Iran and you've gone some way towards dismembering bricks. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. can take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them, of course, that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. A lot to unpack there. I I I want to hone in a little bit on the uh the Venezuela question because the Trump administration has struck two Venezuelan boats, killing everybody on board and claiming that these were boats that were 100% confirmed to be smuggling drugs from Venezuela to the United States. I don't know if they've actually given any proof to the public to show that this is actually the case, which is one problem. But obviously, this isn't about drugs, right? Is this about Venezuela's Yeah. What is this about? >> Complete false flag operation. Uh first of all, the satellite shots show that there were no packages on the two boats, so therefore no drug packages. Secondly, as Larry Johnson points out, these vessels did not have enough fuel to get to uh America. And thirdly, both the boats were heading in the wrong direction. So you can forget forget the bombing except of the boats except that it's was completely illegal. So it's a false flag operation. The real the real reason for regime change in Venezuela is to gain control of Venezuela's oil resources which are the largest in the world. >> And then heading over to the Middle East um and what you were explaining in terms of the US and Israel collaborating to potentially attack Iran moving forward. I first want to touch on this so-called peace plan that is now being proposed in Gaza, followed by threats that if Hamas doesn't accept this, Israel will quote finish the job, which I suppose means continuing to slaughter everyone in Gaza and take over the whole territory. Now, considering Hamas, I think they've already come out and said they're not interested in the deal. Obviously, the inner workings of this deal are extraordinarily favorable to Israel, I would imagine. And so of course they're not going to take it. Um so what is the real strategy here? Did Trump and Netanyahu they must have known that this wasn't a deal that kamas was going to accept. So is this more of just a a show for the cameras and for the citizens to say hey we tried but they didn't accept it. >> Two answers to that question. Political theater. He needs his popularity is falling. Um he needs the full support of the Jewish population. But knowing that the probability was that Hamus would turn down the proposal is given Netanyahu cart blah to continue to attack uh Gaza and that's what it's all about. It's nothing to do with two state that disappeared long time ago. It was all about by force taking over Gaza. But Hamas has not been defeated. The population is from what I understand firmly behind Hamas. They don't want their lands to be occupied by anybody else. So I'm afraid it's it's the plan is dead before it begins. And a final point, um, Blair is highly unpopular in the Middle East. So, it's, forget it, theater. >> Now, when it comes to the war between Israel and Hamas, there's different schools of thought here. It's funny what when when I whenever anybody on my show brings up there's a genocide going on in Gaza, you know, they're starving children, they're killing women, all of these things. Generally, there's at least a few people in the comments who pop up and say, "You anti-semite. How dare you?" So I I want to give a little bit of of consideration for the other side which is that the population of Gaza is so captured by this extremist Muslim ideology you know perpetrated by Hamas or or or indoctrinated into them by Hamas that there is no hope of redemption. The only way out of this is total destruction of Gaza, including civilians, because the civilians are so closely tied to the terrorist ideology of Hamas, that there's no hope for them. Th this is kind of the argument that I've I've heard on the other side and that you will sometimes see Israelis themselves talking about in street interviews in Israel and things like that. What are your thoughts there? Is there any truth in in your opinion to to these sorts of allegations? >> I'll answer it a different way. Who was present during this public meeting between Netanyahu and Trump? Trump's son-in-law Kushner. Kushner has this vision of the new great seaside resort. And it was only a few days ago, I think it was Israel's finance minister who publicly was saying with a photograph of these beautiful buildings in Gaza, saying, "The plan has been made, we are transforming Gaza into this plush, rich seaside resort. But the people in Gaza are not going to disappear. It's not going to happen. >> Well, let's talk about the potential war that could erupt with Iran in the Middle East. When what what are the signs you're seeing that make you believe this could be imminent? And what would the implications be of such a conflict for the region? I think the huge strange meeting of some 800 generals and admirals um that the secretary of war Pete Hexpath called for which took place yesterday was a diversion. The real meetings were between the heads of Sentcom, Pete Hegmith and Trump on planning um the war, the coming war or the coming attack jointly between Israel and America on Iran. And probably most of the discussions that was held between Netanyahu and Trump was dealing with the proposed attack. The next piece of information that came our way is that air tankers were seen flying into the Middle East via England. And the last time that this happened was prior to the 12-day war on the last 12-day war on Iran. Then there lots of other snippets that one picks up. Um Iran has made preparations for an attack. They have received extensive military equipment both from Russia and China. and Israel's um depleted uh reserves of missiles etc have been replenished by deliveries from America and elsewhere. So all the signs are putting to being put together to suggest that there will be an imminent attack on Iran. And by imminent I mean within six months. >> And so the implications of this war for the Middle East and and also how do you think the American public will react? How do you think Russia and China will react? >> There is a link between Ukraine and Iran. The link is that America does not would much prefer that Russia would not enter the war with Iran against America and Israel. So they wanted Russia to be bogged down in Ukraine, which means the probability of an escalation, implying that in one form or another, Europe will come into the war. Maybe not with boots on the ground, but maybe by um by air power. And you can see how troops are being maneuvered all around the place. Um, I was told that about 56,000 US troops in Lithuania and Romania have been put on full alert in recent weeks. There are reports from Russian intelligence that contingents of um UK and French troops have moved into Odessa and again activated in Romania. So there's a risk that not only of a attack on Iran, but a significant escalation of the war in Ukraine between NATO and Russia. >> I definitely want to dive into that in just a second, but first, will this attack on Iran by the United States not tank President Trump's popularity even further at home? What are your thoughts there? >> It will strengthen the support of the Jewish population. So basically, it's not just the Jewish population. It's the powers that be, to put it bluntly, that are behind Trump's presidency, whether it be the deep state, however you define it, plus the very large support from the Jewish community, And I guess it's not only the Jewish community, but the evangelical Christian community that supports Israel, right, which is a huge part of Trump's voter base, I believe. >> Yeah. And it's it's the powerful old money, the elite neocons who want more, >> which they always seem to do. So, Russia, Ukraine, you're talking about troops being ready in Romania, which I think has a big connection to the EU kicking Georgescu out of the election um and having a pro-EU candidate win so that then they could pull something like this cuz Georgescu was very um I don't know if you want to say anti, but he was at least had questions about NATO and didn't necessarily want to be a part of that. and also questions about the EU. Um, very family oriented, Orthodox Christian, I believe, and and wanted those values in society. And, uh, now here we are, you're saying, with troops readying themselves in in Romania. Do you think we actually could see a full-scale boots on the ground deployment of these troops and troops from other EU countries? You mentioned the UK and France as well. >> I'm less sure about boots on the ground. But let me let me rephrase that. I am less sure about new boots on the ground. There are boots there already and have been for some time. And if you go back two or three months ago when the Russian special forces broke into the a Ukrainian command and control center, captured a couple of British colonels and an MI6 officer. Nobody spoke about capturing other NATO officers, including Americans. And that was probably the case. So I I I suspect this has been in the planning for a long long time. >> Very interesting. It seems like Putin keeps putting red line lines in place saying if you do this there's going to be trouble and it seems like the West, America and the EU NATO uh seems to continually push against these red lines to kind of test what Putin will actually do. Of course, recently there's a lot of talk about the US potentially providing long range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and even helping them with determining targets to strike within Russian territory. That would certainly be the next red line that they would push over. Do you think that could really be, you know, the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of Putin's uh patience at this point with the West? Well, I think Putin has deliberately been very patient. He doesn't want to start a largecale war, but he does have people around him who are less patient. So, he himself is in probably a difficult situation. I don't want war, but I'm being pushed into an escalation by some of my friends. So, the risk is that Putin loses patience and hits out. [Music] I think that if he sees firm evidence that an attack on Russia is being planned by member NATO countries, then he will attack. It may not be um it may not be a military attack. It could be a cyber attack. much more likely does an equivalent amount of damage but without it being deemed to be starting a war against NATO. >> That does make a lot of sense. Um I want to move over to the gold market now for a moment. Obviously the metals be on an absolute tear recently breaking to new all-time highs. It seems almost daily we're getting a new all-time high in the gold price. How much of the rise in the gold price is related to all of the geopolitical turmoil we've discussed? And do you think we're still in the early stages of this gold bull market? I mean, by some technical indicators, it's looking very overbought here, but obviously the fundamentals driving gold are far different than your average commodity, being that gold's role as money is the the main reason for its value. How do you how do you think about all of that? You are asking difficult questions. I think we're in the early stages of a long-term bull market. I'm not clever enough to say what will be the ultimate price of gold. But in simple terms, we have the DXY, the dollar index falling by 50% by 2028. So that probably means that gold relative to the dollar, I emphasize that um will hit around $8,000 by 2028. I think that the more interesting um discussion on gold is what China and bricks are doing. If you go back to 2010 when Russia and China started trading with each other without using the US dollar and instead the PBOC with Russia having a trade surplus, the PBOC moved the value equivalent of gold into a special vault. So that was how Russia held its trade surplus with China through the gold mechanism. Now what is happening is that the Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to build gold vaults in member brick countries. One has been opened in Hong Kong which obviously has much wider implications and one is either has been completed or is about to be completed in Saudi Arabia. As Saudi Arabia has a trade surplus with China at the moment of around 20 billion dollars. So what China does, whatever the level of Chinese currency that Saudi Arabia does not want to hold, they convert it into gold held in the Shanghai gold exchange in Saudi Arabia. And that's how trade between member bricks countries is going to be transacted not through the dollar but through gold. So that brings gold back into the monetary system and it actually goes one step further because what China now plans to do is to use gold as a financing instrument, not just as a secure asset. so that gold can be used for trade finance, for repo markets, etc., etc. The BIS has actively opposed this for years because obviously um it brings gold visibly into the monetary system at the detriment to the US dollar. But China now has the assets and the muscle to make this a reality. So I think this is going to happen probably within the next one to two years. So the other way of looking at what's going on in the monetary system is that America is going down the route of stable coins and Bitcoin backed by a US Treasury note. And what's a US Treasury note? It's a debt instrument. So all you're doing is you're making the debt instrument look something lovely by calling it a stable coin. And as um Putin's financial advisor said, all that America is doing is devaluing and washing out their debt in the clouds. What will most of the world want? It won't want a imaginary piece of Bitcoin, however well it's performed, or stable coins, they will want something stable like gold. Therefore, you will find greater support outside America and her allies with the bricks alternative. Excellent summary. I'd love to get your thoughts on copper here because I know you follow the copper market very closely. Um price rising recently. Obviously, all the fundamentals seem to be in place for a a long-term secular bull run in copper. Would would you agree with that? And what are the main catalysts driving the copper market right now in your view? >> What drives copper is the macroeconomy? I did a couple of weeks ago using official data, the international copper study group data excluding their China data which is inflated and using our own sources in China which are accurate. So in the first six months of this year, we had in round numbers a global surplus of 700,000 tons. On what I could call the most optimistic figure for the second half, we have a deficit of around 500,000 tons. But that deficit would be smaller if I was more hardnosed about what consumption will do in the second half. So that gives us a surplus of around 200,000 tons this year. So why are prices between 9 and $10,000? And the fundamentals are telling you the market is in surplus. So will fundamentals align themselves with prices or will prices just ignore the fundamentals? on our work. The world will be most of the world, particularly Europe and America will be in recession until the early months of next year. The copper market is overbought. The bulls say look at what consumption is going to do in future years because of EVs, renewables, data centers, electrification, etc. The problem is we live in a very fractured world and past trends are not going to be the same as future trends. We're going into a world with very violent movements in business activity both up and down. So, we're either going to have an inflationdriven two-year bull market starting around the middle of next year followed by a big crash. First of all though, we would have we've got copper prices for the reasons I given you falling to around $7,000. Then we would have a bull market that takes us up to 14,000 by probably by second half of 2027 followed by the mega crash. The alternative scenario, and I'm not sure yet which one will play out, is that if the war scenario is real, the world will go into recession despite whatever central banks and their governments will try to do to stimulate activity. because the war would unwind all of the highly leverage that exists in every market. And moreover, it's very likely that one of the first movements that Iran will do if or I should say when they are attacked is to close the homo straits through which 20% of world's oil passes through. So either we will see the top in the copper price today or else we have a nice correction and then one last big move higher to around 14,000 into the second half of 2027 followed by the crash. So it all comes back to the macro. And the final point that I make to people, technology might well drive business activity, but technology also substitutes copper. In EVs, you've got increasing amount of wiring going from copper into aluminium. More fundamentally, the voltage is going to rise to 48 volts, which implies much thinner wiring and much thinner contacts. So, you're going to see the copper content of of IC's and EVs falling over the next few years. On data centers, fiber optics is the preferred material until you get to the racks. But now within the racks more and more fiber optics are being used in place of copper because what is required in the fiber is bandwidth and speed and speed gives fiber optics the preferred material. So if speed is not the number one requirement then copper will continue to be used. So again the copper content the data center is being uh reduced. Finally you should look at the cost of money. The advocates of data centers are pouring billions if not trillions of capital into them. We are likely to see under any scenario other than a short-term drop in the cost of money particularly 10 years plus from around about the 4.5% now to about 3% by the middle of next year. But after that the cost of money is going to rise very significantly in line with rising inflation. So you can see by 2027 10-year treasuries yielding at least 8%. What does that do to these big guys borrowing money? So um I think there are huge question marks about this the bubble in data centers which comes back again comes back again once again to public consumption. >> Yeah fantastic and extremely nuanced take. Um, no surprise coming from you, but definitely appreciate all that color considering how much you have actually uh researched and been involved in the copper market over the decades. Um, thank you so much, Simon Hunt, for for coming on the show. Uh, tell us about Simon Hunt Strategic Services and I believe you also have a new podcast. So, tell us about that as well. >> You mean the Three Musketeers Copper Podcast? >> Yes. >> Yeah. The three of us, we decided to call us ourselves the three musketeers. Uh, two old hands in the copper industry and one still very active running a consultancy in Chile. And what we are doing is um having a podcast every month delving deep into all aspects of the copper industry. the first and and all the podcasts are for free this year and we start um having paid subscribers next year. But uh the first podcast was based on America's introducing copper tariffs and of course that leads on to different aspects of the copper industry. The next one which will be done within a week is about the supply side with a big focus on the implications of the Grasber accident and then we take it from there. So um one can find details of it on uh website world the world copper the world world copper industry.com >> is that the website >> great and Simon Hunt strategic services tell us about that >> I actually started my consultancy business in a company called Brook Hunt that got taken over and I left in 20 years later in 1990 January 1996 too many personality clashes to start up Simon Hunt strategic services and it's copperbased But in order to look at copper properly, you have to look at what is the macro, geopolitical, etc., etc. What's really going on beneath the surface in order to come up with a sensible forecast for the global economy. I first went to China in 1993. So I have very good connections in China. Um so what we do is we delve deeply into the macro side, the China side and then copper itself with regular reports coming out at least at least one every week probably averaging two at the moment given what is going on in the world more likely three. Um and uh anyhow we decided the three of us that there was room for sensible discussion of the copper industry by guys who know it inside out and are completely independent and don't have to a sucker to their clients. >> Great. Well, I'll put links in the description below to the podcast as well as Simon Hunt Strategic Services. As always, so many insights shared today, Simon. Thank you so much for coming on the show. >> And for myself, the easy way to get hold of me is simon-hunt.com. >> Great. I will put that in the description as well. Thank you so much. >> Super. >> Thank you for joining us today. Take advantage of our sponsor Ark Silver Gold Opiums specials right now. They've got a ton of great prices. You are seeing them displayed on screen. To take advantage, reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsg.com. And make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. And of course, pick up your Commodity Culture merch. Hats, t-shirts, hoodies, mugs, all backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Buy them using the link in the description below, and I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.
What They're Not Telling Us About The Coming Conflict – This Attack is 'Imminent': Simon Hunt
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody. Welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. On this episode, I'm thrilled to welcome Simon Hunt to the program. The founder of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, which focuses on the interreationship of geopolitics and economic activity with a focus on China and the copper market. We are honing in on rising geopolitical tensions and global conflict today with Simon warning that he believes the recent meeting of top military brass in the US was a decoy to hide the real activity going on behind the scenes. Preparation for a joint strike on Iran with Israel. We discussed the implications of this new war breaking out in the Middle East. How will Russia and China react? and how will the Trump administration sell this war to the American public? We also discuss gold's tremendous run. And you'll want to stick around to the end of the interview where Simon provides one of the most nuanced and detailed takes on the copper market that I've ever heard on this show. So, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Simon Hunt. Simon Hunt, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. There is so much happening in the world today for us to discuss, but I want to start by getting your 60,000 ft overview of the current state of global geopolitics, financial markets, the global economy. Anything that comes top of mind to you right now. Let's start by zooming out and then we'll we'll hone in on a few different aspects. What what are you watching right now that you think more people should be paying attention to in those realms? Unfortunately, we have the combination of a very fragile global financial system that includes America as well as the growing risk that Trump wants to derail the BRICS group of nations simply because if they mature then they will be a threat to America's dollar and political hedgemony. So everything that we see in the big wide world at the moment, whether it be in the Middle East or in Europe or the likelihood that America is going to attempt regime change in Venezuela. It's all part of this what one really should call the global war. The war between the way that the world has been run for the last 80 years and the way that a large part of the world wants to see change. So all of that on top of a fragile, debtridden global financial system. >> Well, let's hone in on a few specific aspects there. You mentioned the bricks. Pretty big news coming out of China recently. We had Russia and China signing anou for natural gas deliveries, increased natural gas deliveries through the already existing power of Siberia 1 pipeline and of course uh the upcoming power of Siberia 2 pipeline which is currently in the planning phase. They're going to send a bunch of natural gas through that sell Russia selling it to China. At least we have thisou in place. not totally official yet, but of course a lot of people are pointing out this is natural gas that could be flowing to EU member states which are currently experiencing very high energy costs due to of course the political class sanctioning Russian energy. Um what are your thoughts? How do you think this will all play out and and how does this play into the whole bricks versus the west story? >> Another big question. Um, first of all, my understanding is that Siberia Gas 2, it is an official contract. It's got beyond the planning stage. What are the consequences of Russia supplying increasing amounts of energy to China? The big picture, part of the big picture is that Washington wants control of global energy sources. This is a long-term plan because if they have that then they control the world and retain their hegemonic status. So part of probably the primary reason why it's very likely given the way that America has relocated 10 warships and has activated their old Puerto Rico air base and has positioned special forces around Venezuela. It does look as though there is going to be a serious attempt at causing regime change in Venezuela, either by a show of force or else by infiltration of special forces into the country. What is very interesting is it's only very recently that Venezuela and Russia have signed a strategic alliance. So is that going to be enough to deter Trump from his attempt attempted regime change in Venezuela? The second part of uh obtaining control over global energy sources is the very strong probability that there will be a renewed and more serious Israel stroke American attack on Iran. Israel wants it because Iran is a hurdle towards Israel objective of creating greater Israel. And it is also the head of the snake in their views because of Iran's support of Hezbollah Hamus and the Houthis. From America's point of view, Iran is perceived incorrectly in my view to be the weak link in bricks. Therefore, dismember Iran and you've gone some way towards dismembering bricks. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. can take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them, of course, that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. A lot to unpack there. I I I want to hone in a little bit on the uh the Venezuela question because the Trump administration has struck two Venezuelan boats, killing everybody on board and claiming that these were boats that were 100% confirmed to be smuggling drugs from Venezuela to the United States. I don't know if they've actually given any proof to the public to show that this is actually the case, which is one problem. But obviously, this isn't about drugs, right? Is this about Venezuela's Yeah. What is this about? >> Complete false flag operation. Uh first of all, the satellite shots show that there were no packages on the two boats, so therefore no drug packages. Secondly, as Larry Johnson points out, these vessels did not have enough fuel to get to uh America. And thirdly, both the boats were heading in the wrong direction. So you can forget forget the bombing except of the boats except that it's was completely illegal. So it's a false flag operation. The real the real reason for regime change in Venezuela is to gain control of Venezuela's oil resources which are the largest in the world. >> And then heading over to the Middle East um and what you were explaining in terms of the US and Israel collaborating to potentially attack Iran moving forward. I first want to touch on this so-called peace plan that is now being proposed in Gaza, followed by threats that if Hamas doesn't accept this, Israel will quote finish the job, which I suppose means continuing to slaughter everyone in Gaza and take over the whole territory. Now, considering Hamas, I think they've already come out and said they're not interested in the deal. Obviously, the inner workings of this deal are extraordinarily favorable to Israel, I would imagine. And so of course they're not going to take it. Um so what is the real strategy here? Did Trump and Netanyahu they must have known that this wasn't a deal that kamas was going to accept. So is this more of just a a show for the cameras and for the citizens to say hey we tried but they didn't accept it. >> Two answers to that question. Political theater. He needs his popularity is falling. Um he needs the full support of the Jewish population. But knowing that the probability was that Hamus would turn down the proposal is given Netanyahu cart blah to continue to attack uh Gaza and that's what it's all about. It's nothing to do with two state that disappeared long time ago. It was all about by force taking over Gaza. But Hamas has not been defeated. The population is from what I understand firmly behind Hamas. They don't want their lands to be occupied by anybody else. So I'm afraid it's it's the plan is dead before it begins. And a final point, um, Blair is highly unpopular in the Middle East. So, it's, forget it, theater. >> Now, when it comes to the war between Israel and Hamas, there's different schools of thought here. It's funny what when when I whenever anybody on my show brings up there's a genocide going on in Gaza, you know, they're starving children, they're killing women, all of these things. Generally, there's at least a few people in the comments who pop up and say, "You anti-semite. How dare you?" So I I want to give a little bit of of consideration for the other side which is that the population of Gaza is so captured by this extremist Muslim ideology you know perpetrated by Hamas or or or indoctrinated into them by Hamas that there is no hope of redemption. The only way out of this is total destruction of Gaza, including civilians, because the civilians are so closely tied to the terrorist ideology of Hamas, that there's no hope for them. Th this is kind of the argument that I've I've heard on the other side and that you will sometimes see Israelis themselves talking about in street interviews in Israel and things like that. What are your thoughts there? Is there any truth in in your opinion to to these sorts of allegations? >> I'll answer it a different way. Who was present during this public meeting between Netanyahu and Trump? Trump's son-in-law Kushner. Kushner has this vision of the new great seaside resort. And it was only a few days ago, I think it was Israel's finance minister who publicly was saying with a photograph of these beautiful buildings in Gaza, saying, "The plan has been made, we are transforming Gaza into this plush, rich seaside resort. But the people in Gaza are not going to disappear. It's not going to happen. >> Well, let's talk about the potential war that could erupt with Iran in the Middle East. When what what are the signs you're seeing that make you believe this could be imminent? And what would the implications be of such a conflict for the region? I think the huge strange meeting of some 800 generals and admirals um that the secretary of war Pete Hexpath called for which took place yesterday was a diversion. The real meetings were between the heads of Sentcom, Pete Hegmith and Trump on planning um the war, the coming war or the coming attack jointly between Israel and America on Iran. And probably most of the discussions that was held between Netanyahu and Trump was dealing with the proposed attack. The next piece of information that came our way is that air tankers were seen flying into the Middle East via England. And the last time that this happened was prior to the 12-day war on the last 12-day war on Iran. Then there lots of other snippets that one picks up. Um Iran has made preparations for an attack. They have received extensive military equipment both from Russia and China. and Israel's um depleted uh reserves of missiles etc have been replenished by deliveries from America and elsewhere. So all the signs are putting to being put together to suggest that there will be an imminent attack on Iran. And by imminent I mean within six months. >> And so the implications of this war for the Middle East and and also how do you think the American public will react? How do you think Russia and China will react? >> There is a link between Ukraine and Iran. The link is that America does not would much prefer that Russia would not enter the war with Iran against America and Israel. So they wanted Russia to be bogged down in Ukraine, which means the probability of an escalation, implying that in one form or another, Europe will come into the war. Maybe not with boots on the ground, but maybe by um by air power. And you can see how troops are being maneuvered all around the place. Um, I was told that about 56,000 US troops in Lithuania and Romania have been put on full alert in recent weeks. There are reports from Russian intelligence that contingents of um UK and French troops have moved into Odessa and again activated in Romania. So there's a risk that not only of a attack on Iran, but a significant escalation of the war in Ukraine between NATO and Russia. >> I definitely want to dive into that in just a second, but first, will this attack on Iran by the United States not tank President Trump's popularity even further at home? What are your thoughts there? >> It will strengthen the support of the Jewish population. So basically, it's not just the Jewish population. It's the powers that be, to put it bluntly, that are behind Trump's presidency, whether it be the deep state, however you define it, plus the very large support from the Jewish community, And I guess it's not only the Jewish community, but the evangelical Christian community that supports Israel, right, which is a huge part of Trump's voter base, I believe. >> Yeah. And it's it's the powerful old money, the elite neocons who want more, >> which they always seem to do. So, Russia, Ukraine, you're talking about troops being ready in Romania, which I think has a big connection to the EU kicking Georgescu out of the election um and having a pro-EU candidate win so that then they could pull something like this cuz Georgescu was very um I don't know if you want to say anti, but he was at least had questions about NATO and didn't necessarily want to be a part of that. and also questions about the EU. Um, very family oriented, Orthodox Christian, I believe, and and wanted those values in society. And, uh, now here we are, you're saying, with troops readying themselves in in Romania. Do you think we actually could see a full-scale boots on the ground deployment of these troops and troops from other EU countries? You mentioned the UK and France as well. >> I'm less sure about boots on the ground. But let me let me rephrase that. I am less sure about new boots on the ground. There are boots there already and have been for some time. And if you go back two or three months ago when the Russian special forces broke into the a Ukrainian command and control center, captured a couple of British colonels and an MI6 officer. Nobody spoke about capturing other NATO officers, including Americans. And that was probably the case. So I I I suspect this has been in the planning for a long long time. >> Very interesting. It seems like Putin keeps putting red line lines in place saying if you do this there's going to be trouble and it seems like the West, America and the EU NATO uh seems to continually push against these red lines to kind of test what Putin will actually do. Of course, recently there's a lot of talk about the US potentially providing long range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and even helping them with determining targets to strike within Russian territory. That would certainly be the next red line that they would push over. Do you think that could really be, you know, the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of Putin's uh patience at this point with the West? Well, I think Putin has deliberately been very patient. He doesn't want to start a largecale war, but he does have people around him who are less patient. So, he himself is in probably a difficult situation. I don't want war, but I'm being pushed into an escalation by some of my friends. So, the risk is that Putin loses patience and hits out. [Music] I think that if he sees firm evidence that an attack on Russia is being planned by member NATO countries, then he will attack. It may not be um it may not be a military attack. It could be a cyber attack. much more likely does an equivalent amount of damage but without it being deemed to be starting a war against NATO. >> That does make a lot of sense. Um I want to move over to the gold market now for a moment. Obviously the metals be on an absolute tear recently breaking to new all-time highs. It seems almost daily we're getting a new all-time high in the gold price. How much of the rise in the gold price is related to all of the geopolitical turmoil we've discussed? And do you think we're still in the early stages of this gold bull market? I mean, by some technical indicators, it's looking very overbought here, but obviously the fundamentals driving gold are far different than your average commodity, being that gold's role as money is the the main reason for its value. How do you how do you think about all of that? You are asking difficult questions. I think we're in the early stages of a long-term bull market. I'm not clever enough to say what will be the ultimate price of gold. But in simple terms, we have the DXY, the dollar index falling by 50% by 2028. So that probably means that gold relative to the dollar, I emphasize that um will hit around $8,000 by 2028. I think that the more interesting um discussion on gold is what China and bricks are doing. If you go back to 2010 when Russia and China started trading with each other without using the US dollar and instead the PBOC with Russia having a trade surplus, the PBOC moved the value equivalent of gold into a special vault. So that was how Russia held its trade surplus with China through the gold mechanism. Now what is happening is that the Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to build gold vaults in member brick countries. One has been opened in Hong Kong which obviously has much wider implications and one is either has been completed or is about to be completed in Saudi Arabia. As Saudi Arabia has a trade surplus with China at the moment of around 20 billion dollars. So what China does, whatever the level of Chinese currency that Saudi Arabia does not want to hold, they convert it into gold held in the Shanghai gold exchange in Saudi Arabia. And that's how trade between member bricks countries is going to be transacted not through the dollar but through gold. So that brings gold back into the monetary system and it actually goes one step further because what China now plans to do is to use gold as a financing instrument, not just as a secure asset. so that gold can be used for trade finance, for repo markets, etc., etc. The BIS has actively opposed this for years because obviously um it brings gold visibly into the monetary system at the detriment to the US dollar. But China now has the assets and the muscle to make this a reality. So I think this is going to happen probably within the next one to two years. So the other way of looking at what's going on in the monetary system is that America is going down the route of stable coins and Bitcoin backed by a US Treasury note. And what's a US Treasury note? It's a debt instrument. So all you're doing is you're making the debt instrument look something lovely by calling it a stable coin. And as um Putin's financial advisor said, all that America is doing is devaluing and washing out their debt in the clouds. What will most of the world want? It won't want a imaginary piece of Bitcoin, however well it's performed, or stable coins, they will want something stable like gold. Therefore, you will find greater support outside America and her allies with the bricks alternative. Excellent summary. I'd love to get your thoughts on copper here because I know you follow the copper market very closely. Um price rising recently. Obviously, all the fundamentals seem to be in place for a a long-term secular bull run in copper. Would would you agree with that? And what are the main catalysts driving the copper market right now in your view? >> What drives copper is the macroeconomy? I did a couple of weeks ago using official data, the international copper study group data excluding their China data which is inflated and using our own sources in China which are accurate. So in the first six months of this year, we had in round numbers a global surplus of 700,000 tons. On what I could call the most optimistic figure for the second half, we have a deficit of around 500,000 tons. But that deficit would be smaller if I was more hardnosed about what consumption will do in the second half. So that gives us a surplus of around 200,000 tons this year. So why are prices between 9 and $10,000? And the fundamentals are telling you the market is in surplus. So will fundamentals align themselves with prices or will prices just ignore the fundamentals? on our work. The world will be most of the world, particularly Europe and America will be in recession until the early months of next year. The copper market is overbought. The bulls say look at what consumption is going to do in future years because of EVs, renewables, data centers, electrification, etc. The problem is we live in a very fractured world and past trends are not going to be the same as future trends. We're going into a world with very violent movements in business activity both up and down. So, we're either going to have an inflationdriven two-year bull market starting around the middle of next year followed by a big crash. First of all though, we would have we've got copper prices for the reasons I given you falling to around $7,000. Then we would have a bull market that takes us up to 14,000 by probably by second half of 2027 followed by the mega crash. The alternative scenario, and I'm not sure yet which one will play out, is that if the war scenario is real, the world will go into recession despite whatever central banks and their governments will try to do to stimulate activity. because the war would unwind all of the highly leverage that exists in every market. And moreover, it's very likely that one of the first movements that Iran will do if or I should say when they are attacked is to close the homo straits through which 20% of world's oil passes through. So either we will see the top in the copper price today or else we have a nice correction and then one last big move higher to around 14,000 into the second half of 2027 followed by the crash. So it all comes back to the macro. And the final point that I make to people, technology might well drive business activity, but technology also substitutes copper. In EVs, you've got increasing amount of wiring going from copper into aluminium. More fundamentally, the voltage is going to rise to 48 volts, which implies much thinner wiring and much thinner contacts. So, you're going to see the copper content of of IC's and EVs falling over the next few years. On data centers, fiber optics is the preferred material until you get to the racks. But now within the racks more and more fiber optics are being used in place of copper because what is required in the fiber is bandwidth and speed and speed gives fiber optics the preferred material. So if speed is not the number one requirement then copper will continue to be used. So again the copper content the data center is being uh reduced. Finally you should look at the cost of money. The advocates of data centers are pouring billions if not trillions of capital into them. We are likely to see under any scenario other than a short-term drop in the cost of money particularly 10 years plus from around about the 4.5% now to about 3% by the middle of next year. But after that the cost of money is going to rise very significantly in line with rising inflation. So you can see by 2027 10-year treasuries yielding at least 8%. What does that do to these big guys borrowing money? So um I think there are huge question marks about this the bubble in data centers which comes back again comes back again once again to public consumption. >> Yeah fantastic and extremely nuanced take. Um, no surprise coming from you, but definitely appreciate all that color considering how much you have actually uh researched and been involved in the copper market over the decades. Um, thank you so much, Simon Hunt, for for coming on the show. Uh, tell us about Simon Hunt Strategic Services and I believe you also have a new podcast. So, tell us about that as well. >> You mean the Three Musketeers Copper Podcast? >> Yes. >> Yeah. The three of us, we decided to call us ourselves the three musketeers. Uh, two old hands in the copper industry and one still very active running a consultancy in Chile. And what we are doing is um having a podcast every month delving deep into all aspects of the copper industry. the first and and all the podcasts are for free this year and we start um having paid subscribers next year. But uh the first podcast was based on America's introducing copper tariffs and of course that leads on to different aspects of the copper industry. The next one which will be done within a week is about the supply side with a big focus on the implications of the Grasber accident and then we take it from there. So um one can find details of it on uh website world the world copper the world world copper industry.com >> is that the website >> great and Simon Hunt strategic services tell us about that >> I actually started my consultancy business in a company called Brook Hunt that got taken over and I left in 20 years later in 1990 January 1996 too many personality clashes to start up Simon Hunt strategic services and it's copperbased But in order to look at copper properly, you have to look at what is the macro, geopolitical, etc., etc. What's really going on beneath the surface in order to come up with a sensible forecast for the global economy. I first went to China in 1993. So I have very good connections in China. Um so what we do is we delve deeply into the macro side, the China side and then copper itself with regular reports coming out at least at least one every week probably averaging two at the moment given what is going on in the world more likely three. Um and uh anyhow we decided the three of us that there was room for sensible discussion of the copper industry by guys who know it inside out and are completely independent and don't have to a sucker to their clients. >> Great. Well, I'll put links in the description below to the podcast as well as Simon Hunt Strategic Services. As always, so many insights shared today, Simon. Thank you so much for coming on the show. >> And for myself, the easy way to get hold of me is simon-hunt.com. >> Great. I will put that in the description as well. Thank you so much. >> Super. >> Thank you for joining us today. Take advantage of our sponsor Ark Silver Gold Opiums specials right now. They've got a ton of great prices. 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