SILVER 'Burst' to $60+ By Year-End as Bitcoin COLLAPSES in Epic Crash: Michael Oliver
Summary
Silver Market Outlook: Michael Oliver predicts silver prices could reach $60-$70 by year-end, driven by strong momentum and a potential breakout in the silver mining sector.
Gold and Silver Miners: The SIL ETF and gold miners like Newmont have significantly outperformed the broader market, indicating a bull market for mining stocks.
Monetary Metals: Oliver argues that gold and silver are poised for long-term gains due to global monetary policy shifts and increasing acceptance of gold-backed currencies.
Bitcoin and Market Risks: Bitcoin is seen as vulnerable to a crash, potentially impacting broader markets due to its correlation with the NASDAQ and its integration into corporate balance sheets.
Uranium and Energy Markets: Uranium is expected to stabilize and potentially rise, while oil is on the cusp of a breakout, suggesting a new commodity uptrend.
Broad Market Concerns: The stock market is viewed as overvalued, with a potential for a significant correction, which could benefit gold and related assets.
Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to focus on monetary metals and mining stocks as safe havens amid potential market volatility and monetary policy shifts.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm excited to welcome Michael Oliver to the program. A veteran of the commodities sector with five decades of experience, an expert in momentum based technical analysis and the founder of momentum structural analysis. We're going to dive into the silver market today and discuss the factors that lead Michael to believe we'll see a $60 to $70 silver price by the end of this year. We're going to get his current view on the silver mining sector and his call for a new all-time high in the SE ETF along with the factors driving the silver miners into an epic bull market ahead. We're also going to discuss gold, uranium, and a whole lot more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Michael Oliver. Michael Oliver, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I want to start off by discussing the silver market. A lot of interesting price action recently. We reached 14-year highs on a nominal basis. A lot of people did expect silver to go up quite a bit more from there. However, we seem to be in around the $38 range at present. What do you make of silver's recent price action? I think it's quite strong. If you if you'll pause and look uh early in the year both metals surged okay January, February, March, April. Okay. Uh and in fact silver I think made a secondary high at 35 bucks in March if you recall. Uh and since then if you look at gold like from April close to the present May, June, July, now in August. Okay, total sideways. You can you you almost go back in history and never find an instance where gold goes to sleep, especially after a big advance. Well, you know what we tell people is, hey, gold doesn't top this way. Never. Okay? When it tops, it tops. You make a high, you drop sharply, and then you you work your way on down. But during that time when gold was asleep, silver went up. Gold miners, silver miners went up sharply. In fact, since April, you go back and look, it's just an amazing u wake up for what had been the sleepy end of the monetary metals sector, silver, gold and silver miners. So, they're back into a technical leadership position versus gold. And ever since April, you can see it. Gold sideways, they go vertical. Okay? Uh and I think that's going to continue that outperformance by the silver and the gold and silver miners. So, u gold is still in the stall mode. I suspect it's going to come out of it very shortly. Uh maybe they're waiting on the talks today. You know, the big Trump talks with the Europeans and all that stuff, but which really doesn't matter in the long term anyway. Uh but uh our expectation remains that silver is highly likely before the end of this year which is to say a handful of months take out its all-time nominal highs 50 bucks 50 bucks and end up in the 6070 range before it even pauses. Okay. Not not that that's the top, but just the and if you think about it like you know you you use the word nominal. I think if you think about it in real dollar terms I mean good grief if you factored in the growth in the money supply degradation of the money unit since oh 1980 when silver was at 50 or since 2011 when silver was at 50 very briefly both times by the way. uh you know, silver would probably have to be $200 right now just to be in in equal to those highs. Okay? And don't be surprised if that's what ends up happening. Uh but right now, our expectation is from a trading perspective, not you know, long-term we're going a lot higher. But between now and the end of the year, I think there will be a burst that's already begun. Actually, if you look at late June, we were uh coming up through 33 34. Now suddenly we we got near 40 recently. No, excuse me. Yeah, the upper 39s. Uh I think the getting up into that zone will be the like a refreshing burst up out of the meer, you know, of silver's vast underpricing for the last decades. Yeah. You wrote recently in momentum structural analysis, just pulling on that thread of of uh nominal versus real all-time highs. You wrote, "Our assessment remains that this phase will likely carry well beyond the old $50 highs briefly seen in 1980 and 2011. We think it will go into the $60 to $70 before pausing and do this by year's end." Now, as you mentioned, adjusted for inflation, if we look at $50 in 1980, that is around $196 today. So, I guess my question is, what will it take for us to get back to those real all-time highs? And the two previous all-time highs in 1980 and 2011 were short-lived as you mentioned. Do you think we could see a more prolonged higher price for silver over the long term this time around? I think this time around, um, it's different. I don't think we have a normal bull market in monetary metals here where you're going to go up gold, you know, uh, 850 bucks and then drop back to 200 like it did between 19, you know, 2000, uh, go up to the $1,920 high in 2011 and drop down to,50, you know, that kind of stuff. I think uh there's enough major macrotechnical and fundamental events underway globally but also with focused in the US because we've we're the greatest error out there right now terms of the bubble stock market bubble particularly that when that breaks and it will and I think we're in the process of topping the S&P and the NASDAQ and and breaking that bubble that the consequence monetarily will be a global shift here there more there there there countries adapting adopting money that's backed by gold as opposed to fiat um I think that thought is already out there the Chinese are already expressing it to other countries as well uh and silver is after all you know I know everybody likes to think it's an industrial metal but if you go back and look at its history. It's major swings up and down. Forget about this week or that week, okay? It moves with gold. It doesn't move with industrial metals, okay? Sometimes the industrial metals like copper and so forth are in sync with silver, but don't let that confuse you. Uh it really does not follow the commodity complex so much as it it is in step with gold. So even silver could be monetized. Okay. Um, and already we're seeing some state legislatores, I can't get into detail, but Florida, Texas, and there's a lot of others who've said, uh, not only they're not going to tax gold and silver transactions. Uh, you know, it's just like money buying something. Um, it they are monet they are legal tender. Whoa, what a statement. I mean, when a when a state government describes gold and defines gold and silver in their state as legal tender, in fact, I think in some of them you could pay your taxes in it. Florida, I think, is set up agencies to service tax payments through gold. Uh they're in effect rebelling, miniature rebellion against the national monopoly, Federal Reserve, etc. over what is money. They're saying, "No, we decided this is money." Okay, that's a rebellion. Uh, and I think is the events of the unwinding of the asset bubbles that have been boomed by monetary expansion, by free money for 10 of the last 15 years, etc., etc., that when that breaks all the errors associated with that bubble that are exposed during the breakage process much worse than we saw in 2008 and9 for example uh in terms of real street events um that's when people rethink what is reality what what works that really hasn't worked let's get rid of it you know uh it's it it becomes emotional at some point and I think we're on the cusp of that that's what I think will help drive the acceleration phase in the monetary metals. They're it's already underway. They're anticipating reality. They don't wait for it. Gold rarely waits for the stuff that you look back and say, "Oh, now I understand why it went up. It knew it ahead of time." Okay, somebody did. And I think we're at that phase now where once that other stuff crumbles and that asset flows start to seek homes elsewhere. Well, there's usually very few homes for it, safe places, gold and related and t-bonds. T- bonds aren't working this time. So, that leaves you one thing, monetary metals. And if you look at the behavior of the gold miners, it it suggests to me like Numa for example, which is not an outperformer right now. It sometimes is an outperformer in the sector, sometimes underperformer. It's resurrecting itself, but still not outperforming GDX, for example. But it has exploded. It's up like 60 70% this year. You know, nobody's pounding the table. You don't hear it on the financial TV networks. Look at Numan. It's up uh you know, instead they're they're cheering the fact that the S&P is like, oh, it's five, six% above its old high. Oh boy. You know, and I think the S&P right now as we speak is up about 9% on the year to date where it closed last year. The gold miners are up 60 70% on the year. Okay. Anyway, this is unfolding and I think it will speed up and once it reaches certain levels, I think it will become institutionalized again. Gold as real money. Okay. And then silver will follow. That makes a lot of sense. It it will follow and I don't think it's going up and going to crash back down to 20 bucks or something like that. I think we're in a different global monetary economic environment than we've been in my lifetime. And now a quick break to hear from our sponsor. Arc Silver Gold Osbium owner. Ian Everard is considered one of the most honest and levelheaded gold and silver dealers in the United States. Praised even by his competitors. So give him a call today to take advantage of the specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins mint fresh only $247 over spot. Mint fresh silver maple leaves 2025 coins 1 oz $2.87 over spot while supplies last. Reach out today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, let's talk about gold and silver miners as well, honing in on on silver. The SIL ETF is up around 67% obviously vastly outperforming silver itself, crushing the broad market. Uh GDX is is around the same. I believe you wrote in a recent report, SIL's 2011 price peak was $95. Even just using the price chart and the size of the 10-year wide basing range argues that SIL will reach that level again and likely this year, a swing dimension move. Walk us through why you think the silver miners, the SIL is headed to $95 this year and your overall thoughts on on silver and gold miners. Yeah, sill has sort of underperformed GDX. Not dramatically, but in 2021 it it peaked versus GDX in terms of performance, meaning the silver miners were beating the gold miners. Okay. But when we went into that stall from mid 2020 surge highs in the monetary metals for several years, gold went lateral in a range between mostly 1700 to 2,000. briefly got down the low 1600s, but silver and the gold and silver miners actually eroded. They went into like a staircase. And during that time, not only did sil go down versus the others, but it went down more. Therefore, its relative performance was weak, just like silver relative to gold was weak. Okay. The recent reassertion by the miners, silver miners especially and silver has broken the technical of that erosive process when you plot it as a spread. And if you look at the silver miners even year to date, they're up more than the gold miners. So they're catching up. Okay, it's like a wet bar of soap because they're such a tiny little sector. Even the whole mining sector is gold, silver mining, but silver especially that when money flows into that sector, it's it's like the wet bar of soap. Everybody's grabbing it, it just scoots. Uh and so we've seen some very dramatic action. Now, even recently, price has almost always lagged to momentum, which when we plot our momentum charts, they'll usually break out well before the price chart does something similar. And if you'll look at a a GDX chart or a SIL chart monthly, go back to the 2011 peak, put it up on your screen if you're watching this show, and you'll see that for SIL, there was a total rectangular range up, down, up, down for 10 years now. We're above it. We broke out above it last month and fully out above it this month. Same with GDX. If you then take the simple technical notion of a swing objective, now I I would argue this isn't the real objective. It's just the next leg, measure the depth of that base, low to high, low to high, low to high, and add it to the base. You're going to ch you're going to be up at the 2011 highs just to satisfy that minimal technical swing based on price. I mean, after all, gold's above its 2011 high. Heck, even copper is above its 2011 high. So for silver to get over 50 is sort of a catchup really. It's not an absurd assumption. And for the miners to get back up and take out their 2011 high, it's way lagged to gold, but it's a catch-up. And in the process, it'll be rapid. I think I don't think it's going to be arm wrestling all the way back up to the high. In fact, you've started to see that lately where it's it's more vertical than we've seen in a long time. So anyway, that's what price is now telling us. Even price chart is saying, "Hey, you better be long. I just broke out." Um, and I think uh once you prick that stock market bubble, more and more of that blood flow will move into the gold and silver miners. And these people aren't going to go out and buy silver futures. you know, most people don't do that. Uh maybe they don't want to do options either, but miners, that's a different thing. It's within the stock market. Um and some of them have pretty good uh you know, dividends, especially the biggies, you know. Yeah, I think it's undeniable that we're in a bull market for gold and silver mining stocks. I mean, just speaking of the performance year to date and uh with with this high gold price, too, a lot of the gold miners, the the majors, New Pneumont you mentioned, they're essentially printing cash at this point. I want to touch on gold here and and you know a lot of guests I have on this show. Talk about how precious metals are driven largely by geopolitical uncertainty and global conflict and if peace were to break out it would be very bad for the precious metals. However, you wrote recently on X the entire 21st century has been one of non-stop war somewhere in the world. It has nothing to do with the long-term trend of gold. It might affect the day-to-day, but quite the opposite of standard thinking, gold actually made a short-term top with the onset of the Ukraine war. Gold is a war hedge is trotted out by mainstream media as a way to explain a random down day. So, walk us through why gold is a war hedge is not necessarily a true adage. Yeah, in my experience since I got into the future side of the business, I was a kid practically in the mid in the early in mid 1970s when gold was legalized 75. I've worked with Hutton, EF Hutton. Um, I've seen a lot of little headlines that pop up here and there of some war incident. Somebody shoots somebody they didn't expect, you know, army versus army. And so, oh, suddenly there's anybody who buys those news headlines usually gets kicked in the gut for having done it. other words, you might get a little spike in gold upside because of that, but it's it's it's ill- advised buying. Look at the most recent example, a big example. Nobody there was a big debate back in early 2022, late 201, whether Russia would invade Ukraine. You know, the troops were amassed, but a lot of experts in the area said, "Oh, no. He's not really just threatening. He's not really going to do it." And all of a sudden, he did it. February 22nd. If you shorted gold in the in the few weeks after that event when it was near high, you nailed it and you you made about we were up in the above 2,000 again in price. It dropped to 1620 by summer fall of 2022. You dropped 20% in gold after that war event started. So when the war started, commodities and gold both peaked within days or a few weeks of that event after having had a major move well prior to the event which was again not really expected. So if you bought war news then you got killed. Ultimately gold reasserted itself. Uh but uh no I find war war events are not the driver of gold. You want to know what the driver of gold is? Get an M2 chart or a money supply chart from any country, Western world, put it on your screen. Do the math of every 10 years, what's the rate of growth in the money units, the supply of money, and therefore the degradation of money. You know, you know, when your granddad built a house, it cost him $4,500. Now it costs $450,000. Okay? You know, so is is that because houses are No, it's a degradation of the money unit. Gold maintains its value versus the ongoing degradation in the money units. Period. And until that ever ends and we go to a goldbacked money here, there and globally finally uh that's going to continue. It holds its value. Uh you go back like 25 years ago, summer 25 years ago. So exactly 25 years not the in mid 2000 gold's gone up more than 11fold. S&P 500's gone up three and a half fold. Which is done better at preserving your money? Okay. It's the degradation of the money unit ongoing. Yes, there are times when gold will inhale and exhale and inhale and exhale. But ultimately the curve it will maintain its value versus the degradation of the money unit. Not because of this war that yeah sometimes wars help stimulate money growth because they print money but governments don't really need that excuse. I mean you go back to the mid50s well after World War II and you'll see this upward curve in the money supply regardless of a war here or there. Okay. So anyway, that's that's my argument. If you're in gold, don't make that mistake that it is driven by uncertainty. No, it's driven by certainty. certainty that the money units are constantly degrading. Period. Okay. Well, I want to talk about the broad market for a moment here. You mentioned you think that's a bubble that's going to pop. We've spoken about it several times on the show. There's also a lineup down the block of guests that I've had calling for a crash in the broad market. They have been for over two years now. I think a lot of people can see the broad market is overvalued, particularly if we look at valuations like the cape ratio, the Buffett indicator, etc. Um, but could this not theoretically go on for years before we see a serious long-term correction in bare market? You know, the thoughts crossed my mind that we could be uh, in fact, it was like a month or two ago, we we on the first page of our report for just educational purposes, we put the Venezuelan stock market there, just the price chart. Okay, it was lovely. What a rocket ship. upward curve just like the money supply off the page, you know, and I said, "What are we investing in the US for? You could buy the Venezuelan market and it just it's leaving the earth. Isn't it great?" Well, you know, of course, the money's degrading so rapidly that you could plot a loaf of bread in Venezuela and get the same chart. Okay, so the point being, could they actually go absolute ape and take us to a Venezuelan situation where everything goes up and it's absolutely meaningless except gold of course would go up and and hold its value whereas the others would not quite keep. I don't think we're going to reach that point. I think yes, we have a semi- Venezuelan situation globally anyway where governments constantly print money, destroy the value of money decade by decade. Not quite the level of the Venezuelan situation or the VHimar Republic, you know. Uh so I don't think that's going to happen. We'll still have the boom bust and the bust is is happening. In fact, right now, even this teasing new high we made in the stock market, NASDAQ 100 S&P, where we went up, exploded off that April low, which by the way, when it made that low, that was our bounce point. We predefined that the S&P would likely bounce from 4,800 and the NASDAQ 100 from 16,500. That's almost precisely where that low was. They turned up. We didn't argue that we're going to make a new high except they're going to have a good bounce. Instead, they went up and made the new high again, a marginal new high. But the speed of that recovery was very rapid until they got to the new high level or challenged the old high, which was late 2024, early 2025 levels. And then when they broke through it, they didn't explode. They crawled. If you look at the week-to-eek action in the indexes since that April low, there was a dramatic bounce. The once that got and quote broke out over the old high, it was creepy crawly. It's really bizarre. It's it's like what's going on here? There's no there's a lot of buying, but it's really it's just not having the impact. There was a book written in 1958 that I've mentioned in our reports to our subscribers Edwards and McGee title was technical analysis of stock trends. Okay, it's a 400page monster book with fine print and it deals with chart patterns that they discovered, developed and defined throughout the book. And one of the patterns which is long forgotten by most technicians, price technicians, it's called the broadening top. The broadening top is a very deceptive topping pattern that teases you into being comfortable. What it is is you make a high, then you have a sharp drop. You turn around, make a higher high. Point number two, then have another drop that actually takes out that prior drop. So, a lower low, you get a higher high, lower low, you get a widening pattern, and then it's the third upturn that makes yet again a third new high. It's that one you got to watch because if it's a broadening top pattern, which I argue we are highly likely in because momentum argues this new high is no good. It's when you turn down from that third new high in this widening pattern, not a narrowing triangle like everybody likes to plot, but one that's absolutely the opposite. If when you turn down from that new high like like we're doing, let's say right now, if you turn down from here and you get back below the highs we saw early this year in the S&P, which is only like uh 350 or so points below where we're trading right now. 5% or so, you know, uh five or 6%. Uh something's wrong words. That new high was yet another teaser in which case this broadening top pattern that they defined is starting to to unfold. And usually they're disastrous momentum of the market, long-term momentum already argues that you're in a topping process because while price has just nudged a new high, momentum is laughing at it. Okay, momentum is what you know new high. Uh the momentum is already broken. In other words, um so I'm highly doubtful that this will sustain upside price and when it rolls over, you're going to get the down. Now the issue of crash. So you mentioned that I have I'm not going to argue that there's ever going to be a crash. You could still have a savage bare market, a wipeout bare market without a crash. Yes. 2000 1929 began with the crash and then you had a 50% rally back to the high and then you went down. The real down to the 1932 low was incremental. There was no crash. It was just grinding bloodletting. Okay, for two and a half years, like a 80% drop uh dot high. If you go back and look at the S&P or NASDAQ, then there really never was a crash event 2000 to 2002. It was just a bloody decl. S&P went down 50. And yet there never was what you can define as a crash. Crash being like 30 to 35% in two weeks. Okay? It just didn't happen. So I'm not sure that'll happen. There is one arena I think that you could get a crash and it is one that we're watching for ambush effect because it's now linked to the stock market and that's Bitcoin. Uh if you'll look at a Bitcoin monthly price chart and then punch up a monthly price chart of the NASDAQ 100 and lay them on top of each other, put one above the other and look at them almost month by month they're the same action for the last let's say three years. Prior to that, that wasn't the case. But suddenly now, Bitcoin behaves like the bubble market of the NASDAQ 100. Excitement, excitement, frothy, pullback, same time, congestion at the same time, punch out to a marginal new high again recently like NASDAQ did, so did Bitcoin. There are levels on Bitcoin. Nobody's watching for this. We we're I'm arguing that likely that when you turn down in Bitcoin, you're going to get a crash event, not a just a bare trend. In other words, you're going to get an ambush, an emotional ambush. And because Bitcoin is so now linked not just technically but financially to so many big corporations and underlying so many assumptions that are out there not just among speculators but among big companies that have made commitments that when it goes it could go so rapidly that it's a crash type event because why when you look at Bitcoin's quarterly momentum and what I mean by that is you take the monthly bars of Bitcoin and you oscillate them versus three quarter moving average which is almost like a 200 day average and you you create an oscillate, you have the exact same pattern that you had prior to the 1987 stock market crash. In fact, if I took the labels off of them, you couldn't tell the difference. Now, we're not there. We're not down to the trigger levels, but starting in about six weeks when we move into the new quarter right now, Bitcoin, as we're talking, has dropped about 10,000 bucks from the high we just made to about 115,000. I would caution anybody in Bitcoin, if you get back below 110,000, which is a distribution zone we saw late last year, selling, selling, selling at 110. Then early this year selling selling selling and then finally it burst through same time as NASDAQ burst through its old high. You get back below the 110,000 it says that breakout was a trap. But you get down into the 103 to 105,000 zone next quarter meaning in you know handful of weeks the numbers will adjust. You're at the structure that the 1987 S&P dropped down to and precipitated its crash. A momentum structure not evident on price. When I see that kind of momentum structure that is so hyper clear, it tells me, uhoh, this market could be in big trouble. Sudden trouble. That would be the kind of event that tends to happen in stock bear markets where suddenly it's in an area you don't expect. You know, everybody's looking at AI, for example. Yeah, AI is going to lead the way down probably when you go because it was the leader on the way up. The leaders usually have the biggest drops. But that's where everybody's looking. Nobody's looking at commercial real estate, which is a very vulnerable area technically and fundamentally. Nobody's looking at Bitcoin with that concept in mind that I just explained that we have a technical argument for. And another arena to watch in that regard also is the T-bond market in terms of creating a panic event. So anyway, all these things are percolating off to the side here and you can bet that when they occur, and I think they're going to occur, that's going to be what a panic button for the central bank here and elsewhere also for the central government. Monetary excess will be full throttle again. What's the chief beneficiary? Gold and related. And now when you say Bitcoin, do you include the whole crypto market in that? Do you think other cryptocurrencies will experience just as severe of a correction? Ethereum doesn't have the same. No, it doesn't. No. Now, Bitcoin, remember, is so huge. Like everybody's excited right now because Ethereum went up and took out a shelf of highs that it had created over the last year or so where it hit the same level, same level. Couldn't get to 4,000 4,000 and it it burst on through there and so it's a quote price breakout. Okay, it's now wobbling back a bit. No big deal. But it's only 18% of the size asset size of Bitcoin. So, while everybody's now cheering Ethereum like, "Oh boy, here's the new, you know, it's only 18% of the asset size of the Bitcoin market." So, you got to watch Bitcoin and it's the one with the technical vulnerability that looks like it could get gut kicked in a very rapid way. You got to reach the numbers. I'm not saying, you know, I'm bearish right now. I'm just saying you have the structure of a bridge over the river quai and the dynamite is placed. Okay? You better not go back down under that 110,000 and especially starting in five to six weeks new quarter don't get down much below 110 like 105 103 that area you'll blow the bridge in which case you will be there will be shock because nobody's expecting this. Let's talk about uranium and the energy markets. What what what are you seeing in both uh when it comes to uranium miners and the oil and gas sector? In uranium, we analyze it monthly in our monthly commodity report. We also watch the stocks related to uranium. URA is an ETF of companies that related to uranium. Uh but uranium in it was 2017 or 18 we got bullish based on annual momentum of uranium. It had had a huge layered decline and was coming up through 20 $20 area I think it was. And we said that's it. It's bullish now. And it lasted until last year we got up to, you know, well hundred thousand. Yeah.$100, excuse me, 100. And but when you broke down last summer was in August, got down into the mid 85 level, we broke enough structure on momentum, not evident on price, that said, uhoh, we're headed for a serious correction. We thought the correction would probably carry down to its three-year average on uranium, which is rising, of course, every year. This year, it's in the $70 area. Well, sure enough, where did we drop to? Just below there. But if you look at the last handful of months, we're just doing this either side of the three-year average. So, we dropped to where we thought we would. The question now is, will it reassert itself? We think yes. But right now, we don't have any particular reason to pound the table and say now you got to buy it. I think it's safe to buy uranium here, but we don't have a sense of immediate reward. I don't think it's going to collapse. I think you've had your your break. That's it. Uh and if you look at the uranium stocks, they're robust. They're acting like, "Yeah, we know it's okay." Okay. And and and they're probably right. Okay. Now the other side of the energy complex oil back in the move from late 2020 to 2022 major up move in commodity category doubling in price. Bloomberg went from we got a buy signal back then at 70 it went to 140 by early 2022. So over a year and a half. Then the war began. It peaked within several weeks. Oil did $130 collapsed back down. And if you look at its price chart of WTI futures for the last couple years, the lows have tended to be in the mid $60 range. Just sort of a sloppy sideways nothing, you know, really non-trending. You get nice swings up, swings down, but it really didn't go anywhere. It was just sideways. That was what we think is basing action. Bloomberg Commodity Index did the same thing. is still doing it either side of 100 after it's seeing 140 high in early 2022. When we plot momentum of crude oil, quarterly momentum, which is a long-term metric, we have a massive clear downtrending structure such that last month when we surged up over 70, we said if you'll close any month in this quarter at 70 or higher, you're going to break out of momentum, which would cause price to follow. Okay, final day of the month we were trading above 70 and they closed at 6930. I think it was just back below 70. So they didn't get our breakout number and then they dropped back down into the low the mid60s again. Lower 60, 62, 63 I think is where we are right now. We're arguing that if you close any month at 70 in this quarter that's this month or next it's a massive upside breakout in oil. And don't don't necessarily look for a reason. The reasons always come, but they often come later or next quarter that breakout number will adjust down probably into the 68 zone. So, we're only talking like five bucks above where you are now. Close a month out there in the fourth quarter. And crude oil is breaking out to the upside and I would expect it to surge pretty big. Um maybe rechallenge its high. I don't know what the reason will be except that overall the commodity complex looks like it was basing in prime for another upleg like it had between 2020 and 2022. Uh and I think this time it's going to follow gold. Back then it didn't. In fact, it's been out of sync with gold for quite a few years. But oil looks like a very dynamic potential component of that next commodity upturn. Got to get to the numbers. When we define a number, we don't say, "Yeah, it'll break out if it does this." Wait for it to do it because, you know, maybe we're wrong. But if you cross our trigger number, then we we'll pound the table and say, "No, this is this is an emergent bull trend." And oil's congested right below those numbers right now. And I think probably it's going to achieve them. Question is, does it do it this month, next month, or you know, in the fourth quarter? And I think you'll see that. And when you do, I think you'll get a fairly dramatic initial surge. I don't know what will be the the reason. You know, people like a reason. Okay. How about just that maybe commodity prices in general are vastly underpriced over history over time uh in relation to other assets like the stock market and maybe it's their turn. Okay. Anyway, oil looks uh like pending dynamic upside pending. Tell us about momentum structural analysis and where people can find it. Well, it's oliversa.com for momentum structural analysis. Take your time on this site. We've got a fairly lengthy explanation of what is our unorthodox methodology. We show a lot of prior archived reports that show how we applied it at different times and places. Uh and then if you're interested, request some sample copies. We'll send you latest reports, for example. Uh but we look at all four major asset categories especially because that's important especially this day and age where what one does could impact another either positively or negatively like if the stock market tops I've argued you know it's going to help boost gold and related especially the the miners uh other markets that could impact that are the the on what we think is now the onset of a bare market the dollar it been dull for a couple years now it's we got bare bearish at 104. Right now it's trading at 98, you know. Okay. Back in March, we got bearish. Now it's trading 98. I think it's going to probably go into the 70s again, back to its lows. Uh, and another one to watch is the T-bond market because that's a major asset category, bigger than the stock market. Uh, and it ain't behaving right. It's not doing what it usually does. Um, so anyway, it's very important to to look at the broad horizon. Great. Great. Well, I'll put a link in the description below to oliversa.com for people who want to check that out. Thank you so much, Michael, as always. It's been a blast. Thank you, Jesse. Thank you. Thank you for joining us today. Take advantage of Arc Silver Gold Osmium specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins $247 over spot. Silver Maple Leafs 2025 1oz coins just $2.87 over spot. while supplies last. Get in touch with owner Ian Everard today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsgo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. And pick up your Commodity Culture merch, hats, t-shirts, hoodies, mugs, all backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Link is in the description below and I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.
SILVER 'Burst' to $60+ By Year-End as Bitcoin COLLAPSES in Epic Crash: Michael Oliver
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm excited to welcome Michael Oliver to the program. A veteran of the commodities sector with five decades of experience, an expert in momentum based technical analysis and the founder of momentum structural analysis. We're going to dive into the silver market today and discuss the factors that lead Michael to believe we'll see a $60 to $70 silver price by the end of this year. We're going to get his current view on the silver mining sector and his call for a new all-time high in the SE ETF along with the factors driving the silver miners into an epic bull market ahead. We're also going to discuss gold, uranium, and a whole lot more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Michael Oliver. Michael Oliver, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I want to start off by discussing the silver market. A lot of interesting price action recently. We reached 14-year highs on a nominal basis. A lot of people did expect silver to go up quite a bit more from there. However, we seem to be in around the $38 range at present. What do you make of silver's recent price action? I think it's quite strong. If you if you'll pause and look uh early in the year both metals surged okay January, February, March, April. Okay. Uh and in fact silver I think made a secondary high at 35 bucks in March if you recall. Uh and since then if you look at gold like from April close to the present May, June, July, now in August. Okay, total sideways. You can you you almost go back in history and never find an instance where gold goes to sleep, especially after a big advance. Well, you know what we tell people is, hey, gold doesn't top this way. Never. Okay? When it tops, it tops. You make a high, you drop sharply, and then you you work your way on down. But during that time when gold was asleep, silver went up. Gold miners, silver miners went up sharply. In fact, since April, you go back and look, it's just an amazing u wake up for what had been the sleepy end of the monetary metals sector, silver, gold and silver miners. So, they're back into a technical leadership position versus gold. And ever since April, you can see it. Gold sideways, they go vertical. Okay? Uh and I think that's going to continue that outperformance by the silver and the gold and silver miners. So, u gold is still in the stall mode. I suspect it's going to come out of it very shortly. Uh maybe they're waiting on the talks today. You know, the big Trump talks with the Europeans and all that stuff, but which really doesn't matter in the long term anyway. Uh but uh our expectation remains that silver is highly likely before the end of this year which is to say a handful of months take out its all-time nominal highs 50 bucks 50 bucks and end up in the 6070 range before it even pauses. Okay. Not not that that's the top, but just the and if you think about it like you know you you use the word nominal. I think if you think about it in real dollar terms I mean good grief if you factored in the growth in the money supply degradation of the money unit since oh 1980 when silver was at 50 or since 2011 when silver was at 50 very briefly both times by the way. uh you know, silver would probably have to be $200 right now just to be in in equal to those highs. Okay? And don't be surprised if that's what ends up happening. Uh but right now, our expectation is from a trading perspective, not you know, long-term we're going a lot higher. But between now and the end of the year, I think there will be a burst that's already begun. Actually, if you look at late June, we were uh coming up through 33 34. Now suddenly we we got near 40 recently. No, excuse me. Yeah, the upper 39s. Uh I think the getting up into that zone will be the like a refreshing burst up out of the meer, you know, of silver's vast underpricing for the last decades. Yeah. You wrote recently in momentum structural analysis, just pulling on that thread of of uh nominal versus real all-time highs. You wrote, "Our assessment remains that this phase will likely carry well beyond the old $50 highs briefly seen in 1980 and 2011. We think it will go into the $60 to $70 before pausing and do this by year's end." Now, as you mentioned, adjusted for inflation, if we look at $50 in 1980, that is around $196 today. So, I guess my question is, what will it take for us to get back to those real all-time highs? And the two previous all-time highs in 1980 and 2011 were short-lived as you mentioned. Do you think we could see a more prolonged higher price for silver over the long term this time around? I think this time around, um, it's different. I don't think we have a normal bull market in monetary metals here where you're going to go up gold, you know, uh, 850 bucks and then drop back to 200 like it did between 19, you know, 2000, uh, go up to the $1,920 high in 2011 and drop down to,50, you know, that kind of stuff. I think uh there's enough major macrotechnical and fundamental events underway globally but also with focused in the US because we've we're the greatest error out there right now terms of the bubble stock market bubble particularly that when that breaks and it will and I think we're in the process of topping the S&P and the NASDAQ and and breaking that bubble that the consequence monetarily will be a global shift here there more there there there countries adapting adopting money that's backed by gold as opposed to fiat um I think that thought is already out there the Chinese are already expressing it to other countries as well uh and silver is after all you know I know everybody likes to think it's an industrial metal but if you go back and look at its history. It's major swings up and down. Forget about this week or that week, okay? It moves with gold. It doesn't move with industrial metals, okay? Sometimes the industrial metals like copper and so forth are in sync with silver, but don't let that confuse you. Uh it really does not follow the commodity complex so much as it it is in step with gold. So even silver could be monetized. Okay. Um, and already we're seeing some state legislatores, I can't get into detail, but Florida, Texas, and there's a lot of others who've said, uh, not only they're not going to tax gold and silver transactions. Uh, you know, it's just like money buying something. Um, it they are monet they are legal tender. Whoa, what a statement. I mean, when a when a state government describes gold and defines gold and silver in their state as legal tender, in fact, I think in some of them you could pay your taxes in it. Florida, I think, is set up agencies to service tax payments through gold. Uh they're in effect rebelling, miniature rebellion against the national monopoly, Federal Reserve, etc. over what is money. They're saying, "No, we decided this is money." Okay, that's a rebellion. Uh, and I think is the events of the unwinding of the asset bubbles that have been boomed by monetary expansion, by free money for 10 of the last 15 years, etc., etc., that when that breaks all the errors associated with that bubble that are exposed during the breakage process much worse than we saw in 2008 and9 for example uh in terms of real street events um that's when people rethink what is reality what what works that really hasn't worked let's get rid of it you know uh it's it it becomes emotional at some point and I think we're on the cusp of that that's what I think will help drive the acceleration phase in the monetary metals. They're it's already underway. They're anticipating reality. They don't wait for it. Gold rarely waits for the stuff that you look back and say, "Oh, now I understand why it went up. It knew it ahead of time." Okay, somebody did. And I think we're at that phase now where once that other stuff crumbles and that asset flows start to seek homes elsewhere. Well, there's usually very few homes for it, safe places, gold and related and t-bonds. T- bonds aren't working this time. So, that leaves you one thing, monetary metals. And if you look at the behavior of the gold miners, it it suggests to me like Numa for example, which is not an outperformer right now. It sometimes is an outperformer in the sector, sometimes underperformer. It's resurrecting itself, but still not outperforming GDX, for example. But it has exploded. It's up like 60 70% this year. You know, nobody's pounding the table. You don't hear it on the financial TV networks. Look at Numan. It's up uh you know, instead they're they're cheering the fact that the S&P is like, oh, it's five, six% above its old high. Oh boy. You know, and I think the S&P right now as we speak is up about 9% on the year to date where it closed last year. The gold miners are up 60 70% on the year. Okay. Anyway, this is unfolding and I think it will speed up and once it reaches certain levels, I think it will become institutionalized again. Gold as real money. Okay. And then silver will follow. That makes a lot of sense. It it will follow and I don't think it's going up and going to crash back down to 20 bucks or something like that. I think we're in a different global monetary economic environment than we've been in my lifetime. And now a quick break to hear from our sponsor. Arc Silver Gold Osbium owner. Ian Everard is considered one of the most honest and levelheaded gold and silver dealers in the United States. Praised even by his competitors. So give him a call today to take advantage of the specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins mint fresh only $247 over spot. Mint fresh silver maple leaves 2025 coins 1 oz $2.87 over spot while supplies last. Reach out today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, let's talk about gold and silver miners as well, honing in on on silver. The SIL ETF is up around 67% obviously vastly outperforming silver itself, crushing the broad market. Uh GDX is is around the same. I believe you wrote in a recent report, SIL's 2011 price peak was $95. Even just using the price chart and the size of the 10-year wide basing range argues that SIL will reach that level again and likely this year, a swing dimension move. Walk us through why you think the silver miners, the SIL is headed to $95 this year and your overall thoughts on on silver and gold miners. Yeah, sill has sort of underperformed GDX. Not dramatically, but in 2021 it it peaked versus GDX in terms of performance, meaning the silver miners were beating the gold miners. Okay. But when we went into that stall from mid 2020 surge highs in the monetary metals for several years, gold went lateral in a range between mostly 1700 to 2,000. briefly got down the low 1600s, but silver and the gold and silver miners actually eroded. They went into like a staircase. And during that time, not only did sil go down versus the others, but it went down more. Therefore, its relative performance was weak, just like silver relative to gold was weak. Okay. The recent reassertion by the miners, silver miners especially and silver has broken the technical of that erosive process when you plot it as a spread. And if you look at the silver miners even year to date, they're up more than the gold miners. So they're catching up. Okay, it's like a wet bar of soap because they're such a tiny little sector. Even the whole mining sector is gold, silver mining, but silver especially that when money flows into that sector, it's it's like the wet bar of soap. Everybody's grabbing it, it just scoots. Uh and so we've seen some very dramatic action. Now, even recently, price has almost always lagged to momentum, which when we plot our momentum charts, they'll usually break out well before the price chart does something similar. And if you'll look at a a GDX chart or a SIL chart monthly, go back to the 2011 peak, put it up on your screen if you're watching this show, and you'll see that for SIL, there was a total rectangular range up, down, up, down for 10 years now. We're above it. We broke out above it last month and fully out above it this month. Same with GDX. If you then take the simple technical notion of a swing objective, now I I would argue this isn't the real objective. It's just the next leg, measure the depth of that base, low to high, low to high, low to high, and add it to the base. You're going to ch you're going to be up at the 2011 highs just to satisfy that minimal technical swing based on price. I mean, after all, gold's above its 2011 high. Heck, even copper is above its 2011 high. So for silver to get over 50 is sort of a catchup really. It's not an absurd assumption. And for the miners to get back up and take out their 2011 high, it's way lagged to gold, but it's a catch-up. And in the process, it'll be rapid. I think I don't think it's going to be arm wrestling all the way back up to the high. In fact, you've started to see that lately where it's it's more vertical than we've seen in a long time. So anyway, that's what price is now telling us. Even price chart is saying, "Hey, you better be long. I just broke out." Um, and I think uh once you prick that stock market bubble, more and more of that blood flow will move into the gold and silver miners. And these people aren't going to go out and buy silver futures. you know, most people don't do that. Uh maybe they don't want to do options either, but miners, that's a different thing. It's within the stock market. Um and some of them have pretty good uh you know, dividends, especially the biggies, you know. Yeah, I think it's undeniable that we're in a bull market for gold and silver mining stocks. I mean, just speaking of the performance year to date and uh with with this high gold price, too, a lot of the gold miners, the the majors, New Pneumont you mentioned, they're essentially printing cash at this point. I want to touch on gold here and and you know a lot of guests I have on this show. Talk about how precious metals are driven largely by geopolitical uncertainty and global conflict and if peace were to break out it would be very bad for the precious metals. However, you wrote recently on X the entire 21st century has been one of non-stop war somewhere in the world. It has nothing to do with the long-term trend of gold. It might affect the day-to-day, but quite the opposite of standard thinking, gold actually made a short-term top with the onset of the Ukraine war. Gold is a war hedge is trotted out by mainstream media as a way to explain a random down day. So, walk us through why gold is a war hedge is not necessarily a true adage. Yeah, in my experience since I got into the future side of the business, I was a kid practically in the mid in the early in mid 1970s when gold was legalized 75. I've worked with Hutton, EF Hutton. Um, I've seen a lot of little headlines that pop up here and there of some war incident. Somebody shoots somebody they didn't expect, you know, army versus army. And so, oh, suddenly there's anybody who buys those news headlines usually gets kicked in the gut for having done it. other words, you might get a little spike in gold upside because of that, but it's it's it's ill- advised buying. Look at the most recent example, a big example. Nobody there was a big debate back in early 2022, late 201, whether Russia would invade Ukraine. You know, the troops were amassed, but a lot of experts in the area said, "Oh, no. He's not really just threatening. He's not really going to do it." And all of a sudden, he did it. February 22nd. If you shorted gold in the in the few weeks after that event when it was near high, you nailed it and you you made about we were up in the above 2,000 again in price. It dropped to 1620 by summer fall of 2022. You dropped 20% in gold after that war event started. So when the war started, commodities and gold both peaked within days or a few weeks of that event after having had a major move well prior to the event which was again not really expected. So if you bought war news then you got killed. Ultimately gold reasserted itself. Uh but uh no I find war war events are not the driver of gold. You want to know what the driver of gold is? Get an M2 chart or a money supply chart from any country, Western world, put it on your screen. Do the math of every 10 years, what's the rate of growth in the money units, the supply of money, and therefore the degradation of money. You know, you know, when your granddad built a house, it cost him $4,500. Now it costs $450,000. Okay? You know, so is is that because houses are No, it's a degradation of the money unit. Gold maintains its value versus the ongoing degradation in the money units. Period. And until that ever ends and we go to a goldbacked money here, there and globally finally uh that's going to continue. It holds its value. Uh you go back like 25 years ago, summer 25 years ago. So exactly 25 years not the in mid 2000 gold's gone up more than 11fold. S&P 500's gone up three and a half fold. Which is done better at preserving your money? Okay. It's the degradation of the money unit ongoing. Yes, there are times when gold will inhale and exhale and inhale and exhale. But ultimately the curve it will maintain its value versus the degradation of the money unit. Not because of this war that yeah sometimes wars help stimulate money growth because they print money but governments don't really need that excuse. I mean you go back to the mid50s well after World War II and you'll see this upward curve in the money supply regardless of a war here or there. Okay. So anyway, that's that's my argument. If you're in gold, don't make that mistake that it is driven by uncertainty. No, it's driven by certainty. certainty that the money units are constantly degrading. Period. Okay. Well, I want to talk about the broad market for a moment here. You mentioned you think that's a bubble that's going to pop. We've spoken about it several times on the show. There's also a lineup down the block of guests that I've had calling for a crash in the broad market. They have been for over two years now. I think a lot of people can see the broad market is overvalued, particularly if we look at valuations like the cape ratio, the Buffett indicator, etc. Um, but could this not theoretically go on for years before we see a serious long-term correction in bare market? You know, the thoughts crossed my mind that we could be uh, in fact, it was like a month or two ago, we we on the first page of our report for just educational purposes, we put the Venezuelan stock market there, just the price chart. Okay, it was lovely. What a rocket ship. upward curve just like the money supply off the page, you know, and I said, "What are we investing in the US for? You could buy the Venezuelan market and it just it's leaving the earth. Isn't it great?" Well, you know, of course, the money's degrading so rapidly that you could plot a loaf of bread in Venezuela and get the same chart. Okay, so the point being, could they actually go absolute ape and take us to a Venezuelan situation where everything goes up and it's absolutely meaningless except gold of course would go up and and hold its value whereas the others would not quite keep. I don't think we're going to reach that point. I think yes, we have a semi- Venezuelan situation globally anyway where governments constantly print money, destroy the value of money decade by decade. Not quite the level of the Venezuelan situation or the VHimar Republic, you know. Uh so I don't think that's going to happen. We'll still have the boom bust and the bust is is happening. In fact, right now, even this teasing new high we made in the stock market, NASDAQ 100 S&P, where we went up, exploded off that April low, which by the way, when it made that low, that was our bounce point. We predefined that the S&P would likely bounce from 4,800 and the NASDAQ 100 from 16,500. That's almost precisely where that low was. They turned up. We didn't argue that we're going to make a new high except they're going to have a good bounce. Instead, they went up and made the new high again, a marginal new high. But the speed of that recovery was very rapid until they got to the new high level or challenged the old high, which was late 2024, early 2025 levels. And then when they broke through it, they didn't explode. They crawled. If you look at the week-to-eek action in the indexes since that April low, there was a dramatic bounce. The once that got and quote broke out over the old high, it was creepy crawly. It's really bizarre. It's it's like what's going on here? There's no there's a lot of buying, but it's really it's just not having the impact. There was a book written in 1958 that I've mentioned in our reports to our subscribers Edwards and McGee title was technical analysis of stock trends. Okay, it's a 400page monster book with fine print and it deals with chart patterns that they discovered, developed and defined throughout the book. And one of the patterns which is long forgotten by most technicians, price technicians, it's called the broadening top. The broadening top is a very deceptive topping pattern that teases you into being comfortable. What it is is you make a high, then you have a sharp drop. You turn around, make a higher high. Point number two, then have another drop that actually takes out that prior drop. So, a lower low, you get a higher high, lower low, you get a widening pattern, and then it's the third upturn that makes yet again a third new high. It's that one you got to watch because if it's a broadening top pattern, which I argue we are highly likely in because momentum argues this new high is no good. It's when you turn down from that third new high in this widening pattern, not a narrowing triangle like everybody likes to plot, but one that's absolutely the opposite. If when you turn down from that new high like like we're doing, let's say right now, if you turn down from here and you get back below the highs we saw early this year in the S&P, which is only like uh 350 or so points below where we're trading right now. 5% or so, you know, uh five or 6%. Uh something's wrong words. That new high was yet another teaser in which case this broadening top pattern that they defined is starting to to unfold. And usually they're disastrous momentum of the market, long-term momentum already argues that you're in a topping process because while price has just nudged a new high, momentum is laughing at it. Okay, momentum is what you know new high. Uh the momentum is already broken. In other words, um so I'm highly doubtful that this will sustain upside price and when it rolls over, you're going to get the down. Now the issue of crash. So you mentioned that I have I'm not going to argue that there's ever going to be a crash. You could still have a savage bare market, a wipeout bare market without a crash. Yes. 2000 1929 began with the crash and then you had a 50% rally back to the high and then you went down. The real down to the 1932 low was incremental. There was no crash. It was just grinding bloodletting. Okay, for two and a half years, like a 80% drop uh dot high. If you go back and look at the S&P or NASDAQ, then there really never was a crash event 2000 to 2002. It was just a bloody decl. S&P went down 50. And yet there never was what you can define as a crash. Crash being like 30 to 35% in two weeks. Okay? It just didn't happen. So I'm not sure that'll happen. There is one arena I think that you could get a crash and it is one that we're watching for ambush effect because it's now linked to the stock market and that's Bitcoin. Uh if you'll look at a Bitcoin monthly price chart and then punch up a monthly price chart of the NASDAQ 100 and lay them on top of each other, put one above the other and look at them almost month by month they're the same action for the last let's say three years. Prior to that, that wasn't the case. But suddenly now, Bitcoin behaves like the bubble market of the NASDAQ 100. Excitement, excitement, frothy, pullback, same time, congestion at the same time, punch out to a marginal new high again recently like NASDAQ did, so did Bitcoin. There are levels on Bitcoin. Nobody's watching for this. We we're I'm arguing that likely that when you turn down in Bitcoin, you're going to get a crash event, not a just a bare trend. In other words, you're going to get an ambush, an emotional ambush. And because Bitcoin is so now linked not just technically but financially to so many big corporations and underlying so many assumptions that are out there not just among speculators but among big companies that have made commitments that when it goes it could go so rapidly that it's a crash type event because why when you look at Bitcoin's quarterly momentum and what I mean by that is you take the monthly bars of Bitcoin and you oscillate them versus three quarter moving average which is almost like a 200 day average and you you create an oscillate, you have the exact same pattern that you had prior to the 1987 stock market crash. In fact, if I took the labels off of them, you couldn't tell the difference. Now, we're not there. We're not down to the trigger levels, but starting in about six weeks when we move into the new quarter right now, Bitcoin, as we're talking, has dropped about 10,000 bucks from the high we just made to about 115,000. I would caution anybody in Bitcoin, if you get back below 110,000, which is a distribution zone we saw late last year, selling, selling, selling at 110. Then early this year selling selling selling and then finally it burst through same time as NASDAQ burst through its old high. You get back below the 110,000 it says that breakout was a trap. But you get down into the 103 to 105,000 zone next quarter meaning in you know handful of weeks the numbers will adjust. You're at the structure that the 1987 S&P dropped down to and precipitated its crash. A momentum structure not evident on price. When I see that kind of momentum structure that is so hyper clear, it tells me, uhoh, this market could be in big trouble. Sudden trouble. That would be the kind of event that tends to happen in stock bear markets where suddenly it's in an area you don't expect. You know, everybody's looking at AI, for example. Yeah, AI is going to lead the way down probably when you go because it was the leader on the way up. The leaders usually have the biggest drops. But that's where everybody's looking. Nobody's looking at commercial real estate, which is a very vulnerable area technically and fundamentally. Nobody's looking at Bitcoin with that concept in mind that I just explained that we have a technical argument for. And another arena to watch in that regard also is the T-bond market in terms of creating a panic event. So anyway, all these things are percolating off to the side here and you can bet that when they occur, and I think they're going to occur, that's going to be what a panic button for the central bank here and elsewhere also for the central government. Monetary excess will be full throttle again. What's the chief beneficiary? Gold and related. And now when you say Bitcoin, do you include the whole crypto market in that? Do you think other cryptocurrencies will experience just as severe of a correction? Ethereum doesn't have the same. No, it doesn't. No. Now, Bitcoin, remember, is so huge. Like everybody's excited right now because Ethereum went up and took out a shelf of highs that it had created over the last year or so where it hit the same level, same level. Couldn't get to 4,000 4,000 and it it burst on through there and so it's a quote price breakout. Okay, it's now wobbling back a bit. No big deal. But it's only 18% of the size asset size of Bitcoin. So, while everybody's now cheering Ethereum like, "Oh boy, here's the new, you know, it's only 18% of the asset size of the Bitcoin market." So, you got to watch Bitcoin and it's the one with the technical vulnerability that looks like it could get gut kicked in a very rapid way. You got to reach the numbers. I'm not saying, you know, I'm bearish right now. I'm just saying you have the structure of a bridge over the river quai and the dynamite is placed. Okay? You better not go back down under that 110,000 and especially starting in five to six weeks new quarter don't get down much below 110 like 105 103 that area you'll blow the bridge in which case you will be there will be shock because nobody's expecting this. Let's talk about uranium and the energy markets. What what what are you seeing in both uh when it comes to uranium miners and the oil and gas sector? In uranium, we analyze it monthly in our monthly commodity report. We also watch the stocks related to uranium. URA is an ETF of companies that related to uranium. Uh but uranium in it was 2017 or 18 we got bullish based on annual momentum of uranium. It had had a huge layered decline and was coming up through 20 $20 area I think it was. And we said that's it. It's bullish now. And it lasted until last year we got up to, you know, well hundred thousand. Yeah.$100, excuse me, 100. And but when you broke down last summer was in August, got down into the mid 85 level, we broke enough structure on momentum, not evident on price, that said, uhoh, we're headed for a serious correction. We thought the correction would probably carry down to its three-year average on uranium, which is rising, of course, every year. This year, it's in the $70 area. Well, sure enough, where did we drop to? Just below there. But if you look at the last handful of months, we're just doing this either side of the three-year average. So, we dropped to where we thought we would. The question now is, will it reassert itself? We think yes. But right now, we don't have any particular reason to pound the table and say now you got to buy it. I think it's safe to buy uranium here, but we don't have a sense of immediate reward. I don't think it's going to collapse. I think you've had your your break. That's it. Uh and if you look at the uranium stocks, they're robust. They're acting like, "Yeah, we know it's okay." Okay. And and and they're probably right. Okay. Now the other side of the energy complex oil back in the move from late 2020 to 2022 major up move in commodity category doubling in price. Bloomberg went from we got a buy signal back then at 70 it went to 140 by early 2022. So over a year and a half. Then the war began. It peaked within several weeks. Oil did $130 collapsed back down. And if you look at its price chart of WTI futures for the last couple years, the lows have tended to be in the mid $60 range. Just sort of a sloppy sideways nothing, you know, really non-trending. You get nice swings up, swings down, but it really didn't go anywhere. It was just sideways. That was what we think is basing action. Bloomberg Commodity Index did the same thing. is still doing it either side of 100 after it's seeing 140 high in early 2022. When we plot momentum of crude oil, quarterly momentum, which is a long-term metric, we have a massive clear downtrending structure such that last month when we surged up over 70, we said if you'll close any month in this quarter at 70 or higher, you're going to break out of momentum, which would cause price to follow. Okay, final day of the month we were trading above 70 and they closed at 6930. I think it was just back below 70. So they didn't get our breakout number and then they dropped back down into the low the mid60s again. Lower 60, 62, 63 I think is where we are right now. We're arguing that if you close any month at 70 in this quarter that's this month or next it's a massive upside breakout in oil. And don't don't necessarily look for a reason. The reasons always come, but they often come later or next quarter that breakout number will adjust down probably into the 68 zone. So, we're only talking like five bucks above where you are now. Close a month out there in the fourth quarter. And crude oil is breaking out to the upside and I would expect it to surge pretty big. Um maybe rechallenge its high. I don't know what the reason will be except that overall the commodity complex looks like it was basing in prime for another upleg like it had between 2020 and 2022. Uh and I think this time it's going to follow gold. Back then it didn't. In fact, it's been out of sync with gold for quite a few years. But oil looks like a very dynamic potential component of that next commodity upturn. Got to get to the numbers. When we define a number, we don't say, "Yeah, it'll break out if it does this." Wait for it to do it because, you know, maybe we're wrong. But if you cross our trigger number, then we we'll pound the table and say, "No, this is this is an emergent bull trend." And oil's congested right below those numbers right now. And I think probably it's going to achieve them. Question is, does it do it this month, next month, or you know, in the fourth quarter? And I think you'll see that. And when you do, I think you'll get a fairly dramatic initial surge. I don't know what will be the the reason. You know, people like a reason. Okay. How about just that maybe commodity prices in general are vastly underpriced over history over time uh in relation to other assets like the stock market and maybe it's their turn. Okay. Anyway, oil looks uh like pending dynamic upside pending. Tell us about momentum structural analysis and where people can find it. Well, it's oliversa.com for momentum structural analysis. Take your time on this site. We've got a fairly lengthy explanation of what is our unorthodox methodology. We show a lot of prior archived reports that show how we applied it at different times and places. Uh and then if you're interested, request some sample copies. We'll send you latest reports, for example. Uh but we look at all four major asset categories especially because that's important especially this day and age where what one does could impact another either positively or negatively like if the stock market tops I've argued you know it's going to help boost gold and related especially the the miners uh other markets that could impact that are the the on what we think is now the onset of a bare market the dollar it been dull for a couple years now it's we got bare bearish at 104. Right now it's trading at 98, you know. Okay. Back in March, we got bearish. Now it's trading 98. I think it's going to probably go into the 70s again, back to its lows. Uh, and another one to watch is the T-bond market because that's a major asset category, bigger than the stock market. Uh, and it ain't behaving right. It's not doing what it usually does. Um, so anyway, it's very important to to look at the broad horizon. Great. Great. Well, I'll put a link in the description below to oliversa.com for people who want to check that out. Thank you so much, Michael, as always. It's been a blast. Thank you, Jesse. Thank you. Thank you for joining us today. Take advantage of Arc Silver Gold Osmium specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins $247 over spot. Silver Maple Leafs 2025 1oz coins just $2.87 over spot. while supplies last. Get in touch with owner Ian Everard today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsgo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. And pick up your Commodity Culture merch, hats, t-shirts, hoodies, mugs, all backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Link is in the description below and I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.