Rebel Capitalist
Sep 22, 2025

I'm Quickly Selling My Gold And Buying This…

Summary

  • Gold Market Insight: Despite gold reaching all-time highs, George Gammon is selling some of his gold holdings, citing investment principles from market legends like Jesse Livermore and Marty Zwag.
  • Investment Strategy: Gammon emphasizes the importance of following tried-and-true investment principles such as letting profits run and cutting losses quickly, highlighting the significance of asymmetry in risk-reward management.
  • Market Analysis: He notes that the current gold market lacks retail investor participation, contrasting it with the S&P 500, which he describes as having high retail involvement and overvaluation.
  • Portfolio Adjustment: Gammon is reallocating some of his gold investments into the GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF), citing better chart patterns, asymmetry, and potential for higher returns due to favorable conditions in the gold mining sector.
  • Macro vs. Micro Investing: He discusses his preference for macro investing through ETFs rather than conducting detailed analysis of individual companies, relying on broader market trends to guide his investment decisions.
  • Gold Storage Costs: Gammon highlights the rising costs of storing physical gold and introduces a potential solution through Monetary Metals, which offers a way to earn interest on gold holdings by leasing gold to jewelers.
  • Investment Opportunities: By leasing gold, investors can potentially earn a yield paid in gold, turning storage costs into a positive carry, which Gammon suggests as a strategic alternative to traditional gold storage.

Transcript

Hello fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you're well. So, gold hitting all-time highs today as we speak. So, what is George Gammon doing with his own portfolio? I'm actually selling gold. That's right. I'll explain why in just a moment. But before I do, I want to go over some of the principles, the investing principles from the OGs, the guys in the Market Wizards books that are just as applicable today as they were in the 1980s and the 1990s and just as applicable then or then as they were in the 1920s and the 1930s when Jesse Livermore was using the exact same tactics. Most of those guys in the Market Wizards books, they always referenced two things. Blackjack, Beat the Dealer by Ed Thorp, and they referenced uh reminiscences of a stock operator, I believe it was. You guys know the book I'm referring to, but uh the story of Jesse Livermore. And so these ideas have been put in practice for the last 100 years successfully. So, I don't care what type of market you have. I don't care how the algorithms work. I don't care about QE. I don't care about the Fed's balance sheet. I don't care about this blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. These principles are tried and true and they're something that we all need to focus on and hopefully incorporate into our own investing strategy. But let's go over these because this is why I'm starting to sell gold. and I'll show you what I'm actually buying with the proceeds from the sale of the gold. Okay, we've got the screen share. Now, we're going to go over to the school platform. This is where we have our Rebel Capitalist live or Rebel Capitals Pro, excuse me, community. It's just the investment community, the private investment community I have with Lyn Alden and Chris Macintosh and Brent Johnson, uh Patrick Sesna and Jay Harman, etc. It's it's right there. But anyway, this is one thing that I actually got in St. Bart's when I was there about two or three weeks ago and one of the the presentations uh was actually very complex but they started with just the basics and these are the investing rules I was referring to as articulated by Marty Zwag. So if you don't know who Marty Zwag is, do your homework. This guy is a proper proper OG. A lot of the guys in the market wizards books reference Marty specifically. And so in 1990, you can see he came out with his investing rules and he's got 17 of them here. Number one, you'll notice the trend is your friend. Don't fight the tape. Let the profits run. Take losses quickly. This is the asymmetry that I always talk about where there's really three levers that you can pull in a portfolio. Number one is your win rate. Just out of all the let's say you're going long. So you make 10 bets or 10 investments. Out of those 10, how many go up over the specific time frame and how many go down? That's your win rate. Is it 50/50? Is it 8020? What is it? And then the other component there, the other lever is how many investments are you making annually? So this is where you get the law of large numbers. So, we all know that if you go to a casino, your odds of, let's just say, winning on a a slot machine or something like that, they say it's 99%. Probably not. But even if it was 99%, the house would still win. Uh because even with that slight edge that favors the house, with the number of transactions, they're always going to come out ahead. Always going to come out ahead, even if someone hits a jackpot every once in a while. So the point there is let's say you have a 51% advantage. So if you have a 51% your odds of winning are 51%. If you place that bet 10 times there's a lot different probabilities that you actually win or lose than if you place that bet 1 million times. You see? And most of you understand that's a law of large numbers. And that's why a casino always wins even though the odds are just slightly in their favor. Okay. Now, uh, let's go keep going here. And so that middle, that's what I was talking about. I forgot there. That middle lever is the asymmetry. So, it's riskreward starting out, but as you're managing the position, you know, what's your asymmetry? What's the upside versus the downside? And this is what Marty's talking about here with let the profits run. Cut the cut the losers. Cut the losers. And here, this one is is really big right here. If you buy for a reason and that reason is discontinued or is no longer valid, then sell exclamation point. So, a lot of you know that I was I had a long position in the 30-year futures, the 30-year Treasury futures, and I did really well because I bought it 4 point roughly 4.9, something like that. Interest rates went all the way down, but then they kind of bounced back up and everything was going my way. The data was going my way. My original thesis was not invalidated. It was being validated by the more and more reports and data that uh came out. But then we had the initial claims. And the initial claims went from 260 roughly down to 231. And as soon as I saw that, I was like, eh, nope, nope, nope, no, no. Got to sell. I didn't want to sell, but I'm like, no, no, no. I I've got to sell because rule number three. Rule number three, if you buy for a reason, and my reason was because the labor market was weakening, uh, and that reason is discontinued or is no longer val, and it's not that it was no longer valued, but I got a data point there that was contrary or contradicted my thesis. So, boom, immediately sold. Okay. Then you just keep going down. Uh, if the values don't make sense and don't participate, uh, there's a few that I would add here. Uh I think this is interesting. Every indicator eventually bites the dust. And the last one here, look at this guys. Beware of new era thinking. Boy, how relevant is that? It's i.e. it's different this time because dot dot dot. All right. So now let's go over to a chart of the GLD. We'll just use this as a proxy for gold. Now, this is a fantastic looking chart. You can see we have a dip here. You get the sellers, they're all gone. And then just the next leg up because the only people left in the marketplace are the buyers. So, looking at this through the lens of what Marty Zwag was saying, pretty good. Pretty good. And what's great about gold right now is everything I read and every person that I talk to that's actually in the gold space that knows gold dealers, they say that the retail investor is actually a net seller. So you have this great trend, this great chart, you have it hitting all-time highs, but with no retail participation whatsoever. Not no, but almost on net, they're net sellers. So this is the opposite of a bubble. Now, that's not to say that prices can't go down. I mean, who knows? No, nobody that the price could get cut in half over the next six weeks. I have no idea. But what you have to do is you just have to look at all the information that you have at your disposal and you just literally have to make an educated guess based on what you think the odds are and the probabilities. There's there's no certainties, only probabilities. It's never 100% in either direction. But what Marty Zwag is saying there and the rules for investing all that's doing is just giving you two things. It's it's it really it's not even so much I was going to say your percentage win rate. It some of the rules pertain to that but most of the rules right there if you really really think about it it's asymmetry. It's asymmetry just making sure you've got more upside than downside. And when you look at a chart like this hitting all time with no retail participation whatsoever, um you know, you compare this to the S&P 500, which is the complete opposite. Now, it's at all-time high or close to all-time highs, but every other metric that you would use would say that there's massive retail participate. There's FOMO, there's hysteria, it's a mania. It's just risk on, risk on, risk on. And with gold uh although it is also at all-time highs the reason for it being at all-time highs in the underlying let's say value although gold is very difficult to value but the next group that I'm buying that's not difficult to value um but if you look at the valuations of the S&P 500 we just talked about that last video I mean horrible you got the cape ratio at 39 for heaven's sakes you got price of sales higher than the dot nosebleleed levels even if you think the stock market is going stock market's going higher, that's fine. You know, even if you're a bull, but you have to admit that the the the the valuations don't make sense at all. Your bullish argument for buying the S&P 500 is just simply that it always goes up, so I'm going to buy it, or I'm just going to sell it to a greater fool. And that may be a valid argument, but that's not really the game I like to play. If you go back to Marty Zwag's rules, I didn't see anything about the best strategy being to find a greater fool. I think he left that one off the list. All right, so let's get back. So then the question becomes, well, Jordan, why the hell are you selling? Like what are you doing, man? It sounds like every single thing that you're saying is bullish. and it is but the underlying asset this being gold very very bullish but there's maybe and and again this isn't investing advice or anything like that I'm just sharing with you what I'm doing with my own portfolio but maybe there's an even better chart maybe there's an even better trend that's based on the underlying asset and maybe you have one more component there. That makes even more sense. Right? If we go back to Marty Zwag, we look at number three. If you buy for a reason and the reason is discontinued or is no longer valued, then sell. But what he didn't say, which I believe is if you buy for a reason and the reason gets even better, then buy more. especially if it's going your way and the chart looks great and uh and and the trend is just getting better and better and better. So, that brings me to the punchline here is why I'm selling some of my gold, not all my gold, but some of the gold because I'm parlaying it into, and you guys probably guessed the GDXJ. Now, another reason why I wanted to go over this is because I get a lot of questions in Rebel Capitalist Pro because we do member only live stream Q&As's and a lot of them uh ask me about like specific gold miners like what do you think of this gold miner? What do you think of that gold miner? And my answer is I have no idea. Like I have I have no clue because I've never looked at a gold miner's balance sheet. I don't do bottoms up analysis. Now, like my good friend Lynn Alden, who is uh my business partner in Rebel Capitalist Pro, she is fantastic. I mean, obviously she's great at macro, but she's fantastic that bottoms up type of analysis. She'll really get in there and do the research and look at all the financials and the management and all these things where I I don't do that at all. Um for me, I start with that macro overview. And then I say, "Okay, what's the best way to express this?" And then usually it's just with an ETF. And then sometimes I'll get into a business like uh LAR. Like that was one that I was thinking about shorting the other day. Um that's we'll save that for another video. But um I I still even though I'm considering shorting it, it's it's more of a macro play. It has nothing to do with their balance sheet. I haven't even looked at their balance sheet. I have no I don't have any idea how much cash they have or any of that stuff. And it's the same thing here with the miners. And it's not to say that my way is better. It's it's probably not. But it's just to go to show you that there's more ways. There's multiple ways to skin the cat here. And for me, this is I much prefer to focus on the macro and then ask myself, okay, based on my views of what would be a good investment and then okay, just give me the ETF. just give me the ETF and then I'll watch that very closely. I couldn't even tell you what miners are in the GDXJ and nor do I care. It's just I'm just looking for a proxy to express that that macro view. So anyway, let's look at the chart here. The chart looks even better. And look at this. You had this big sell-off, right? Not big, but you had it go from 91, call it, down to 87. So, you're just shaking out all the loose hands. And then the only people that are left are the diamond hands, let's say. And so, then all the sellers are gone. They've already sold. And so then there's only one way for the stock to go and that's up because all you got is buyers. That's the mechanics, usually the mechanics behind a chart that that looks like this. And most of you guys are probably better technicians than I am. But so the the bottom line here is I have more reasons to buy the GDXJ right now than I have to actually own gold even though I love gold because it's a proxy on the underlying asset. The chart looks even better. Um I think the asymmetry is even better when you look at the upside versus the downside. you can value the gold miners and I know from others not doing my own research but from others that that they're just printing cash right now and their balance sheets uh maybe not the juniors but most of the balance sheets for the the big guys uh are just rock solid and they're especially now because the price of gold is going up and their number one input I do know this their number one input is energy their number one input is diesel and look at what oil's is doing. I mean, oil's just stuck in the mud. Oil is doing nothing. Look at this. Oil's at 62. So, if that's your number one input, we'll just use this as a proxy for diesel. If that's your number one input and your the price of what you sell is just going straight up to the moon, what does that mean for your margins? It's it's literally the opposite of LAR, the homebuilders. your margins are just going higher and higher and higher and higher and higher and higher. It's just it's like you're Scrooge McDuck. So anyway, you understand that you've got the great underlying asset, you got a better looking chart, you got better asymmetry, and so that's why probably more volatility, but that's why I've sold some of my gold and bought the GDXJ. Now, to be clear, I haven't recently done this. Uh I might do it some more. I haven't decided yet. Uh I started doing this about maybe two months ago, something like that. So it it worked well because let's just say I did it a month ago. Uh you're up 28% in the GDXJ and with gold you're up 12. So good alpha. Good alpha for sure. All right. So this brings us to the problem uh with owning gold especially physical gold is storing it because most people don't understand the storage company facility charges you based on the number of ounces you have or the weight uh excuse me they they charge you it's the opposite. They charge you on the price the value of the amount of gold you have not the amount of gold. And so as the price goes higher and higher and higher. So if you look at this chart right here of the uh of the GLD, so this chart is basically identical to your storage fees. So your storage fees, if you have gold on storage with someone right now, this is what your storage fees are doing. It's this chart. In fact, let's go back five years. Look at what your storage fees are doing. That ain't good, right? So basically your negative carry for owning gold is increasing as the price goes up. That this is a problem obviously with owning gold. And so fortunately though this brings me to today's sponsor. I've found a potential solution. It's definitely worked well for me and it's my friends at Monetary Metals. I know the owner Keith Weiner very well and they came to me about four or five months ago and they said hey we'd like to sponsor the channel. I said h I don't know I really don't do sponsors but let me go ahead and understand your business model and what they do is they lease gold to jewelers. So a jeweler will take the gold, they won't uh you know they'll just pay the the premium or the interest rate. They'll sell the gold. Whatever gold they don't sell in the form of jewelry, they'll give it back and then whatever they do sell, then they'll just take the proceeds. They'll buy gold to give back and then they'll pocket the spread. Uh very similar to what a bank does. And so they're paying the interest rate paid in gold, by the way, from the proceeds of the sale. And what they don't sell, they get back. Okay, you guys get it. So, uh, this is a way that you get around those storage fees. So, instead of having to pay the storage fee instead of your negative carry looking like this chart, your negative carry is actually the inverse uh, excuse me, your yield that you receive is this chart because you're getting paid in ounces of gold. So, let me be clear. Instead of paying for storage, you are being paid to store your gold because they're taking that gold. They're leasing it to a jeweler and then the jeweler is paying let's say four or 5%. And then a portion of that goes to you paid in gold. So the amount of gold you have on storage goes up up up up with this chart. So instead of having a negative carry, you have a positive carry paid in gold way. So this is Monetary Metals website. It's uh Oh, that's the client portal there. It's right here, monetary-medals.com. And you can go to monetary-metals.comgamon and or you can call them. I think I'm just kind of old school. I like calling people. And you can check out their website. Uh this is Dixon. He's a really good guy. And you can go down here, see how it works. If you go here, you can see some of the gold lease programs they have. So if you have gold with them, you don't have to participate in a lease. You could just put your gold on storage there. And whenever there's a lease that you think looks good, then you can participate or not. Like this one, it's a 12-month lease. It pays 2%. And this is with Al is a leading New York City-based jeweler company that designs and manufactures true 22 and 24 karat gold. So, you can look up them on look them up online. You can figure out if you like the company or not. And if you like the company, then you can go ahead and participate in that lease. It's up to you. And then you can earn an interest rate paid in gold. So that's kind of how it works. But I know you guys will probably have a lot more questions because the business model isn't exactly intuitive for most people. But once you go through like a whiteboard presentation, which Josh will put in the link of this video, I think it'll make a lot of sense. And if it's something you guys are interested in, then go ahead and give them a call and just ask more questions or email them. You can find their phone number right here at the bottom of the website. Just tell them that George sent you. And uh or if you just want to submit an inquiry via email, again, their website is monetary-metals.comgamin. All right, guys. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you are standing up for freedom, liberty, free market capitalism, and we'll see you in the next video.