New Inflation Data Just Released (You Won't Believe This)
Summary
Inflation Data: The recent release of PCE data shows a slight increase in core PCE from 2.8% to 2.9%, indicating a rising trend in inflation month over month.
GDP Revisions: The first revision of GDP exceeded expectations, moving from 3.1% to 3.3%, raising questions about the accuracy and potential manipulation of economic data.
Economic Analysis: Discrepancies between nominal GDP and real GDP suggest that the GDP price deflator may have been adjusted significantly, casting doubt on the robustness of the reported economic growth.
Gold Market: Gold prices have reached all-time highs, with the GDXJ also showing strong upward trends, reflecting increased interest and potential opportunities in the gold market.
Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to consider alternative data sources like Zillow for housing data and to be cautious about relying solely on official statistics for economic analysis.
Bond Market Insights: The 10-year Treasury trading below Fed funds suggests skepticism about long-term inflation expectations, challenging the narrative of impending stagflation.
Market Outlook: Upcoming economic reports, including the ISM and ADP employment data, are expected to provide significant insights into the current economic conditions and could lead to market volatility.
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitalists. Hope you're doing well. We had some inflation data come out today and I think you're going to be surprised by not just today's inflation data, but maybe more so yesterday's GDP revisions. I think I've uncovered a bit of a conspiracy theory, if you will. And oh, by the way, gold's at all-time highs. So, we'll talk about that as well just in a minute. But first thing, let's do a screen share and dive right in. Josh is totally MIA. Obviously, too busy swiping on Tinder, so I'll handle it. I'll be the producer and the guy talking into the mic today. Let's start by going over what was expected. So, we had the PCE come out, the core PCE is another I guess this is the Fed's preferred inflation me uh measure, let's say. So, what we were looking for as far as the PCE right at 02, which is what we got last month.3 today. 02. So this isn't really surprising, not really shocking, but it is when you compare it with the GDP yesterday. So again, more on that in just a moment, but pretty much everything was in line. Now, I also want to point out that the core PCE has gone up. So last month 2.8, this month 2.9 and the other readings are pretty much flat. So if anything then when you just look at the PCE and the core PCE the trend is higher month over month the trend is higher. Okay. So now let's go ahead and go back to yesterday where see right here where we had the GDP first revision come out and exceed expectations substantially. So all of the talking heads in the mainstream media and the people that are, you know, in the Trump administration and whatnot, they can point to this number and say, "Wow, look at this." I mean, how can anybody claim that the economy isn't booming? So all of the policies and everything that we're doing and the big beautiful bill and blah blah blah blah blah, all this stuff, it's obviously stoking the economy. It's running on all eight cylinders. The economy is in fuego, baby. Look at this. It's even better than we thought. Before we thought it was just this 3.1 number, but now it's all the way up to 3.3 and might have gone from 3% up to 3.3. So up, let's just say 310. I mean, this is incredible. This is something we should really be celebrating. And this is something we can go out and tell the American people and brag to the American people as to how great a job we're doing. And the mainstream media can push this as another reason to buy by by buy stocks. What? Oh, just forget the unemployment data. Forget the non-farm payrolls. Forget the revisions. That's yesterday's news. How could the labor market be weak when the GDP? Hello. Look, real GDP 3.3%. What are you talking about? Weak labor market. That's the total nothing burger. I mean, this is the narrative. You guys know what I'm talking about. But if you watched yesterday's video when I was going through it in real time, there were, let's say, a few data points that didn't really add up. And as I said yesterday, I was going to do a little bit more research and come back to the table with my conclusion. And this is where we get to the we can call it a conspiracy theory. So, first what I want to do, let's make sure we got the screen share working, and we do, is look at nominal GDP. Let's look at nominal GDP. So, this goes back to May of 2022, and this is year-over-year, and we go straight down. Most of you know what this chart looks like, but let's focus on what happened Q1 to Q2. We go from 4.6 67 and we go down slightly to 4.61. But what happened to real GDP? Well, that went up massively. Remember, real GDP in Q1 was negative.5% and now in Q2 they're saying it's 3.3%. So, wow. That that's that's a headscratcher. So you're telling me Bureau of Economic Analysis that last quarter real GDP was negative.5. This quarter it's positive 3.3, but yet nominal GDP went down. H how is that possible? Well, there's only one way that could be possible, and that's if the deflator went down massively, massively. And here we go. Here's the GDP price deflator. So, what they're doing is they're taking nominal GDP and then they're going to subtract the higher prices or whatever measurement they're using for the higher prices. In this case, it's the GDP price deflator, right? That's you guys know how this stuff works, but you might I I didn't know that it was a GDP price deflator. I didn't know what uh inflation metric they used, but after doing some research, here you go. And sure enough, we I mean it's still even with the decline, real GDP still went from uh you know, still went up substantially. But it it it's not as rosy as they're making it seem. if this GDP price deflator was more consistent with what we're seeing with the PCE and the CPI. I'm going to show you a chart of that in just a moment. So from Q1 to Q2 they're they're claiming that the rate of change in prices uh the disinflation let's say went from 3.8% down to two down 1.8 8%. I mean it it's almost down 50%. Now it's not saying that prices are down 50%. But we had basically the rate of inflation was down 50%. We had 50% disinflation. So what does this do? Well, this means that the real GDP number is going to be way higher than it otherwise would have been because if we would have had the same let's say Q1 deflator then real GDP would not have been 3.3 GDP would have been what call it 2 five if my math is right and 2.5 is a heck of a lot better than negative.5 that's for sure But it ain't that great especially when you consider the anomalies with the trade deficit we are talking about. So what I wanted to do is I wanted to go back and look at the correlation typically and do we usually see these huge extremes where you've got the CPI going from let's say 2.4 four up to 2.7 where the CPI is going like this and you've got the PCE that's doing this or maybe even doing this a little bit but yet the deflator is just plummeting. I mean h how often does this happen if ever? So let's go over to the next chart. And here is let me see if I can zoom in for you guys. So, this is obviously a FRED chart. And what I did is I pulled up the CPI, I pulled up the GDP deflator, and I pulled up the PCE. Now unfortunately I don't know that this is real time for the PCE because as we stated before that was flat and uh the core was up and oh by the way this is also year-over-year when the um when this number is quarter from quarter. So it's not an exact apples to apples comparison but it's definitely not apples to oranges. What we're looking for over here is to see if there is usually a correlation or we see times where there's just massive massive divergence in the yearover-year data. It kind of gives us a proxy for what we would expect to see quarter overquarter. So here you go. I mean I'll just before I zoom in. I mean it's not a perfect correlation but it's pretty damn close. It's pretty close. And I I don't know. You guys, you be the judge. For me, something this doesn't pass the sniff test. For me, I'm like, I don't know. This seems a little suspicious here. When we look at this very strong correlation, and I know it's year-over-year, but I would assume that there's a very strong correlation quarter over quarter, which I tried to edit this chart. I I couldn't do it for the quarter over quarter. So, this is as good as it gets, but I mean, I'm just eyeballing this and it looks like to me there's over an 80% correlation and in a much greater correlation when you look at just the GDP price deflator and the PCE. So, if the PCE is basically flat uh quarter over quarter and there's a strong correlation year-over-year between the two, you're telling me that the PCE is basically flat, core is up, and the deflator is down by 1.8%. Basically down 50%. Like, it just it doesn't add up. And so this is one of those inconsistencies that I think we really have to pay attention to to determine how accurate the data is. Now, I'm not saying this is political or although it very well could be. In fact, I put out a tweet yesterday where I showed the revisions where they re revised GDP higher and I said, "You don't even have to read the report. I'll go ahead and summarize it for you." The summary of the report was, "Mr. Trump, sir, please don't fire me." That's the summary from from the be. Obviously, I'm joking, but I don't know. There's a little truth to it, right? There's a little truth to it. So, is this them just trying not to get fired and they're like, "Oh, we got to juice the GDP numbers." So, you we want to keep our job or what? Or is it that their models are flawed? I mean, that's probably the highest probability, which is why you see this massive divergence, which is suspicious to say the least. uh or are these numbers just completely accurate and somehow someway we see this extremely strong correlation especially with the deflator and PCE the PCE is flat to up when you look at core and somehow the deflator is down by 50%. It's possible that that's accurate, but again, for me, it doesn't really pass the sniff test. So, this is something that I think we should really, really pay attention to because if it turns out that the data just seems too obnoxiously fake, uh we've got to look for something else as far as a better measurement for inflation. uh when we're trying to set up our portfolios and try to figure out what's going on in this macro environment. And I would like to remind you that the CPI is produced by who? Ah, yes, that would be the BLS. So, it it's going to be an interesting few months here with the data. And I think the conclusion goes back to kind of the conclusion that we've had on a lot of these BLS data uh videos, and that's that you you got to look at it for sure, but I think you've got to be skeptical regardless of what your opinion is on on Trump. This is isn't really a Trump or administration video, but even if you're this the hardcore MAGA guy or gal, you still have to admit that whoever they put into the BLS, I think this guy from the Heritage Foundation or the guy that or gal that's running the BEA, that they they have something kind of implicit hanging over their head where they're eh, if I'm going to air on one side or the other, I think I'm going to air on the numbers being a little bit better just for for job security. And so we as analysts, we have to take that into consideration. It's just the world we live in. And so with the non-farm payroll numbers, I think you got to look at oil. I think you got to look at the um ADP numbers. Maybe put a little more emphasis on that. I think you've got to put a little more emphasis on the restaurant performance index. We've talked about that many, many times. And for the CPI or for the inflation rate, I think you're going to have to put a little more emphasis on looking at the housing data because that's 33% of the CPI. But instead of looking at the Fed's numbers, which are all nonsense anyway because it's just owner's equivalent rent, but looking at like the Zillow numbers, maybe Realer.com, we're just going to have to get creative here. That's really the bottom line. So, make sure you stay tuned to the channel. Now, let's move over to another in super exciting topic. Gold. Gold. Most of you own gold. And by the way, the GDXJ. For those of you who don't follow me on Twitter or for those of you who aren't members of Rebel Capitalist Pro, first of all, what on earth are you doing? But in Rebel Capitalists Pro, I uh texted or I posted one these set of rules that uh one of the presenters went over from uh St. Barts and fantastic. It goes back to Marty Zwag. Now you old school folks, you you'll know exactly who Marty Zwag is. Absolute legend, legend, legend, legend. and one of his uh first rules. In fact, let's just go over to it. Let's I know I'm kind of switching around the topic, but that's okay because everyone's interested in gold. So, we're going to go over to the community here. There's Adam. And I just want to pull up this. Here we go. It's right here. It's just kind of easier to find it. So, this is goes back to 1990. Isn't that cool? So, the market technicians association, Marty Zwag's Investing Rules. I want to point out number one, the trend is your friend. Don't fight the tape. So, on that note, I want to go over to one of my favorite charts right now, and that is the, drum roll, please, JDXJ. The JDXJ. Let's look at a one-year chart. And this is an example of a very, very, very solid trend. You can see we're at 52- week highs. In fact, let's look at a 5-year chart. We might even Oh, yeah. We're definitely at a high. looking at a 5-year chart. I mean, we haven't been at this level, you have to go all the way back to looks like 2013, 2012 or so. But when you just look at this, you know, this one-year chart, that's a great looking trend here. Now, this is not investment advice. I'm just telling you what I'm looking at for my own personal portfolio and some of the things we're discussing in the Rebel Capitalist Pro community. So, um, I put on a position here. I sold some of my gold and I kind of parlayed it into the GDXJ. That would have been uh let's see sometime I think in here because I saw this uh break support or break resistance excuse me and then kind of uh come down a bit. So I wanted to buy that and it worked out really well. And any pullback I I would I'd be very tempted to do the same thing here. Going back to Marty Zwag's number one rule and that is the trend is your friend especially if the underlying asset is something that fundamentally you like which for the gold miners I do but let's go over to CNBC and check out what's happening with gold itself and big day today up 1.21% 21% and I think this is an all-time high. Oh, it sure is. Wonder. Well, no, it doesn't say. Usually, it says 52- week high, but that's if it's not a 52- week. If it's not an alltime high, it's got to be really close. I mean, it cracked 3500. So, by the way, the last video I did, and I I want to pat myself on the back a little bit here because the last whiteboard video I did where I talked about the gold price and where it could go. This was about a year ago exactly. And at the time, the gold price was uh let's see, let's go back a year. The gold price was call it 2500 or so, something like that. And my prediction for one year from that video was the nominal price of gold would be 3500. And I could not have nailed that. Now I don't get everything right, but this is one prediction that I made that just came true almost exactly and even the time frame was almost exact. So I mean this charts I mean you've got a breakout above support. You've got the consolidation right here which you typically see. Uh this is really good. In fact, you know what's interesting is I was I was listening to a podcast today where they were talking about the kind of mechanics as to why you usually see this consolidation or this kind of big move up and then you see kind of it just flat bounce back and forth with gold and then you see another big move up. And they said their their hypothesis was once you get to a certain level, you've got big institutional sellers of gold for because of an algorithm or whatever the reason, they sell gold at that price. But then once so every time it gets to that, you've got a bunch of supply that hits the market. But once those institutional sellers for whatever reason the alos call it once they exhaust the supply that they're selling then it's and the demand is still there then the price just goes higher and usually rockets higher. So it's looking good for gold for sure. We'll have to see how this plays out. But again, the JDXJ gone up way more, which is all about that catch-up trade that you usually see with gold when you have these big huge bull markets. So, the the problem with this, like I said, this allows me to talk about our sponsor here, is when the value of your gold goes up, the cost of storage goes up as well. So, with Monetary Metals, and it's monetary-metals.comgamin, which got the URL right this time. Uh, I'd check them out. And why? Because you are able to use them for gold storage. They have a leasing program that you can participate in or not where they lease the gold to jewelers and they actually pay you and the interest is paid in gold. So the the model gets uh it's not really complex, but it's rather unique, so people don't really understand it. So I I'll go ahead and put a link in the description of a whiteboard video that I did that explains a little bit better, but you just got to give them a call. And I'm good buddies with Keith, who's the owner, and Brent Johnson, by the way, just joined their board of directors. So that's really cool as well. But before I was willing to bring them on as a sponsor, I wanted to set up my own my own account there. And I did that maybe three or four months ago. I've got about $45 $50,000, maybe more now because the price has gone up so much. But I've got, let's just say 45 $50,000 of gold there. And I just kind of wanted to play around with it, press all the buttons, you know, participate in some leases, not others, just so I could get a good idea of how it works. So then if I liked it, I could go ahead and let you guys know. And if I didn't like it, we said let you know as well, even if they were a sponsor. And uh it's been a great experience. It's it's very userfriendly. If you have any questions, you know, you can email them directly. So I'd strongly suggest checking them out if you feel as though this is something that's right for you. And again, we'll put an explainer video as to how their business model works and how gold leasing works with jewelers and maybe some of the reasons that a jeweler would want to participate or would want to be the counterparty in that gold leasing uh program. And uh if you have any questions, just go ahead and give them a call. Their website uh I usually have it up here is monetarymetals.com or excuse me monetary-medals.com/gamon and you can just tell them I sent you. But this homepage is pretty I think they've actually changed the homepage since uh I started working with them. And I don't know if this is if I had anything to do any influence on the fact that they're doing three simple fast steps. I'll have to ask Keith next time I see him. I think I'm going to see him in New Orleans. But, uh, this gives you an idea of what they do. And again, if you have any questions, don't hesitate to call them and see if it's maybe something that's, uh, a good fit. And actually, while we're on the topic, I want to see what else is happening. I really want to see what's happening in bonds. I know I'm really bouncing around here today, but uh there's a lot of good stuff to talk about. Let's look at the 10-year. Now, this is really interesting because everyone's talking about stagflation, stagflation, stagflation. And I get it when you look at the PPI, but let's not forget, guys, the 10-year Treasury is trading under Fed funds. Like that that is. And maybe the bond market is wrong. Maybe it's completely wrong. very well could be. I mean, it definitely didn't go up in lock step with the CPI during 2021 and 2022, that's for sure. But I if if we were really really really headed toward what the market perceived to be long-term acceleration of inflation and notice I said long-term not just up for 6 months due to tariffs or something like that but really really long term like something you saw in the 1970s you you would not see the 10-year Treasury trading under Fed funds. You would see the it would steepen out. Now, I know it's steepened out the belly of the curve in the 2-year 10 year, but you would see a huge bear steepener, massive bare steepener, and we're just not seeing it. And again, the bond market could be completely wrong, but you at least have to look at this price action and include that in your overall analysis. And same thing with the 2-year. And I I know the two-year is kind of front running the Fed and whatnot. That's part of the price action or the action on the yield. But I mean, look at this. You're telling me that we're going to have massive step and I'm part of it the the definition, right? Because some people would just say the economy is slowing while the um PPI or while the inflation is running a little bit hotter than the Fed would like. That's their definition of stagflation. And that's fair, but that's not really my definition of stagflation. I don't think that's what most people think of when they hear the word. I think when most people hear stagflation, they think of extremely high unemployment rates and an acceleration of inflation. So, as an example, CPI going from 2.7 to 3.5 to 4.8 to just kind of uh that almost exponential move up. And uh it's just maybe the bond market's wrong, but I'm just I'm not seeing it. And as far as gold, I don't think the price action in gold is a reflection of inflation expectations. I think it's more a reflection of especially global central banks just not wanting to deal with anti any counterparty risk. Um just because they don't know what the hell Trump is going to do. They've seen, you know, the Biden administration freeze up accounts and do the sanctions and all of a sudden Russia's dollar assets are no longer their assets. And I just think this is a continuation. And maybe, just maybe, uh, this move up that you can see right here was all central banks, which I think it was. And maybe, just maybe, this next move up is going to be a result of retail participation, which I think is a a a decent theory uh or a likely theory due to the price action that we saw in the GDXJ um and also the price action that we're seeing in silver, which I think is also at all-time highs. Okay, one jeez, I keep forgetting here. One last thing I want to go over what we should expect as far as the calendar next week. Uh let's see if we've got some big news coming up. We've uh Okay, September 1. Oh, Labor Day. You know, now that I don't live in the States, I just totally space out on all the holidays. ISM, that is something I'll be interested in. I mean, anything under 50 is a contraction. Um let's see. Good job. Openings. Okay. Oh, Beige Book. That's something that we'll definitely have to pay an ADP. There you go. There you go. Oh, and we've got the next Oh my goodness gracious. Okay. We could see some serious fireworks here because we've got the next and the first unemployment report or US employment report with the new guy, the by the way, the guy that wants to stop doing monthly data reports and just go to quarterly. And I get it. I get it because what would you do if you were in his position? Because you've got that hanging over your head that the numbers better look good. The numbers better look good. But you're probably an ethical guy and you're probably like, "If the numbers aren't good, I mean, I'm between a rock and a hard place, so let's just not report the numbers." So, this is going to be this is going to be big news. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch and see what happens and then to juxtapose that with the ADP employment report that comes out the day prior. So, next week is going to be a really, really huge week in terms of the news. All right, guys. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon. Enjoy your weekend. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. We'll see you on the next video.
New Inflation Data Just Released (You Won't Believe This)
Summary
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitalists. Hope you're doing well. We had some inflation data come out today and I think you're going to be surprised by not just today's inflation data, but maybe more so yesterday's GDP revisions. I think I've uncovered a bit of a conspiracy theory, if you will. And oh, by the way, gold's at all-time highs. So, we'll talk about that as well just in a minute. But first thing, let's do a screen share and dive right in. Josh is totally MIA. Obviously, too busy swiping on Tinder, so I'll handle it. I'll be the producer and the guy talking into the mic today. Let's start by going over what was expected. So, we had the PCE come out, the core PCE is another I guess this is the Fed's preferred inflation me uh measure, let's say. So, what we were looking for as far as the PCE right at 02, which is what we got last month.3 today. 02. So this isn't really surprising, not really shocking, but it is when you compare it with the GDP yesterday. So again, more on that in just a moment, but pretty much everything was in line. Now, I also want to point out that the core PCE has gone up. So last month 2.8, this month 2.9 and the other readings are pretty much flat. So if anything then when you just look at the PCE and the core PCE the trend is higher month over month the trend is higher. Okay. So now let's go ahead and go back to yesterday where see right here where we had the GDP first revision come out and exceed expectations substantially. So all of the talking heads in the mainstream media and the people that are, you know, in the Trump administration and whatnot, they can point to this number and say, "Wow, look at this." I mean, how can anybody claim that the economy isn't booming? So all of the policies and everything that we're doing and the big beautiful bill and blah blah blah blah blah, all this stuff, it's obviously stoking the economy. It's running on all eight cylinders. The economy is in fuego, baby. Look at this. It's even better than we thought. Before we thought it was just this 3.1 number, but now it's all the way up to 3.3 and might have gone from 3% up to 3.3. So up, let's just say 310. I mean, this is incredible. This is something we should really be celebrating. And this is something we can go out and tell the American people and brag to the American people as to how great a job we're doing. And the mainstream media can push this as another reason to buy by by buy stocks. What? Oh, just forget the unemployment data. Forget the non-farm payrolls. Forget the revisions. That's yesterday's news. How could the labor market be weak when the GDP? Hello. Look, real GDP 3.3%. What are you talking about? Weak labor market. That's the total nothing burger. I mean, this is the narrative. You guys know what I'm talking about. But if you watched yesterday's video when I was going through it in real time, there were, let's say, a few data points that didn't really add up. And as I said yesterday, I was going to do a little bit more research and come back to the table with my conclusion. And this is where we get to the we can call it a conspiracy theory. So, first what I want to do, let's make sure we got the screen share working, and we do, is look at nominal GDP. Let's look at nominal GDP. So, this goes back to May of 2022, and this is year-over-year, and we go straight down. Most of you know what this chart looks like, but let's focus on what happened Q1 to Q2. We go from 4.6 67 and we go down slightly to 4.61. But what happened to real GDP? Well, that went up massively. Remember, real GDP in Q1 was negative.5% and now in Q2 they're saying it's 3.3%. So, wow. That that's that's a headscratcher. So you're telling me Bureau of Economic Analysis that last quarter real GDP was negative.5. This quarter it's positive 3.3, but yet nominal GDP went down. H how is that possible? Well, there's only one way that could be possible, and that's if the deflator went down massively, massively. And here we go. Here's the GDP price deflator. So, what they're doing is they're taking nominal GDP and then they're going to subtract the higher prices or whatever measurement they're using for the higher prices. In this case, it's the GDP price deflator, right? That's you guys know how this stuff works, but you might I I didn't know that it was a GDP price deflator. I didn't know what uh inflation metric they used, but after doing some research, here you go. And sure enough, we I mean it's still even with the decline, real GDP still went from uh you know, still went up substantially. But it it it's not as rosy as they're making it seem. if this GDP price deflator was more consistent with what we're seeing with the PCE and the CPI. I'm going to show you a chart of that in just a moment. So from Q1 to Q2 they're they're claiming that the rate of change in prices uh the disinflation let's say went from 3.8% down to two down 1.8 8%. I mean it it's almost down 50%. Now it's not saying that prices are down 50%. But we had basically the rate of inflation was down 50%. We had 50% disinflation. So what does this do? Well, this means that the real GDP number is going to be way higher than it otherwise would have been because if we would have had the same let's say Q1 deflator then real GDP would not have been 3.3 GDP would have been what call it 2 five if my math is right and 2.5 is a heck of a lot better than negative.5 that's for sure But it ain't that great especially when you consider the anomalies with the trade deficit we are talking about. So what I wanted to do is I wanted to go back and look at the correlation typically and do we usually see these huge extremes where you've got the CPI going from let's say 2.4 four up to 2.7 where the CPI is going like this and you've got the PCE that's doing this or maybe even doing this a little bit but yet the deflator is just plummeting. I mean h how often does this happen if ever? So let's go over to the next chart. And here is let me see if I can zoom in for you guys. So, this is obviously a FRED chart. And what I did is I pulled up the CPI, I pulled up the GDP deflator, and I pulled up the PCE. Now unfortunately I don't know that this is real time for the PCE because as we stated before that was flat and uh the core was up and oh by the way this is also year-over-year when the um when this number is quarter from quarter. So it's not an exact apples to apples comparison but it's definitely not apples to oranges. What we're looking for over here is to see if there is usually a correlation or we see times where there's just massive massive divergence in the yearover-year data. It kind of gives us a proxy for what we would expect to see quarter overquarter. So here you go. I mean I'll just before I zoom in. I mean it's not a perfect correlation but it's pretty damn close. It's pretty close. And I I don't know. You guys, you be the judge. For me, something this doesn't pass the sniff test. For me, I'm like, I don't know. This seems a little suspicious here. When we look at this very strong correlation, and I know it's year-over-year, but I would assume that there's a very strong correlation quarter over quarter, which I tried to edit this chart. I I couldn't do it for the quarter over quarter. So, this is as good as it gets, but I mean, I'm just eyeballing this and it looks like to me there's over an 80% correlation and in a much greater correlation when you look at just the GDP price deflator and the PCE. So, if the PCE is basically flat uh quarter over quarter and there's a strong correlation year-over-year between the two, you're telling me that the PCE is basically flat, core is up, and the deflator is down by 1.8%. Basically down 50%. Like, it just it doesn't add up. And so this is one of those inconsistencies that I think we really have to pay attention to to determine how accurate the data is. Now, I'm not saying this is political or although it very well could be. In fact, I put out a tweet yesterday where I showed the revisions where they re revised GDP higher and I said, "You don't even have to read the report. I'll go ahead and summarize it for you." The summary of the report was, "Mr. Trump, sir, please don't fire me." That's the summary from from the be. Obviously, I'm joking, but I don't know. There's a little truth to it, right? There's a little truth to it. So, is this them just trying not to get fired and they're like, "Oh, we got to juice the GDP numbers." So, you we want to keep our job or what? Or is it that their models are flawed? I mean, that's probably the highest probability, which is why you see this massive divergence, which is suspicious to say the least. uh or are these numbers just completely accurate and somehow someway we see this extremely strong correlation especially with the deflator and PCE the PCE is flat to up when you look at core and somehow the deflator is down by 50%. It's possible that that's accurate, but again, for me, it doesn't really pass the sniff test. So, this is something that I think we should really, really pay attention to because if it turns out that the data just seems too obnoxiously fake, uh we've got to look for something else as far as a better measurement for inflation. uh when we're trying to set up our portfolios and try to figure out what's going on in this macro environment. And I would like to remind you that the CPI is produced by who? Ah, yes, that would be the BLS. So, it it's going to be an interesting few months here with the data. And I think the conclusion goes back to kind of the conclusion that we've had on a lot of these BLS data uh videos, and that's that you you got to look at it for sure, but I think you've got to be skeptical regardless of what your opinion is on on Trump. This is isn't really a Trump or administration video, but even if you're this the hardcore MAGA guy or gal, you still have to admit that whoever they put into the BLS, I think this guy from the Heritage Foundation or the guy that or gal that's running the BEA, that they they have something kind of implicit hanging over their head where they're eh, if I'm going to air on one side or the other, I think I'm going to air on the numbers being a little bit better just for for job security. And so we as analysts, we have to take that into consideration. It's just the world we live in. And so with the non-farm payroll numbers, I think you got to look at oil. I think you got to look at the um ADP numbers. Maybe put a little more emphasis on that. I think you've got to put a little more emphasis on the restaurant performance index. We've talked about that many, many times. And for the CPI or for the inflation rate, I think you're going to have to put a little more emphasis on looking at the housing data because that's 33% of the CPI. But instead of looking at the Fed's numbers, which are all nonsense anyway because it's just owner's equivalent rent, but looking at like the Zillow numbers, maybe Realer.com, we're just going to have to get creative here. That's really the bottom line. So, make sure you stay tuned to the channel. Now, let's move over to another in super exciting topic. Gold. Gold. Most of you own gold. And by the way, the GDXJ. For those of you who don't follow me on Twitter or for those of you who aren't members of Rebel Capitalist Pro, first of all, what on earth are you doing? But in Rebel Capitalists Pro, I uh texted or I posted one these set of rules that uh one of the presenters went over from uh St. Barts and fantastic. It goes back to Marty Zwag. Now you old school folks, you you'll know exactly who Marty Zwag is. Absolute legend, legend, legend, legend. and one of his uh first rules. In fact, let's just go over to it. Let's I know I'm kind of switching around the topic, but that's okay because everyone's interested in gold. So, we're going to go over to the community here. There's Adam. And I just want to pull up this. Here we go. It's right here. It's just kind of easier to find it. So, this is goes back to 1990. Isn't that cool? So, the market technicians association, Marty Zwag's Investing Rules. I want to point out number one, the trend is your friend. Don't fight the tape. So, on that note, I want to go over to one of my favorite charts right now, and that is the, drum roll, please, JDXJ. The JDXJ. Let's look at a one-year chart. And this is an example of a very, very, very solid trend. You can see we're at 52- week highs. In fact, let's look at a 5-year chart. We might even Oh, yeah. We're definitely at a high. looking at a 5-year chart. I mean, we haven't been at this level, you have to go all the way back to looks like 2013, 2012 or so. But when you just look at this, you know, this one-year chart, that's a great looking trend here. Now, this is not investment advice. I'm just telling you what I'm looking at for my own personal portfolio and some of the things we're discussing in the Rebel Capitalist Pro community. So, um, I put on a position here. I sold some of my gold and I kind of parlayed it into the GDXJ. That would have been uh let's see sometime I think in here because I saw this uh break support or break resistance excuse me and then kind of uh come down a bit. So I wanted to buy that and it worked out really well. And any pullback I I would I'd be very tempted to do the same thing here. Going back to Marty Zwag's number one rule and that is the trend is your friend especially if the underlying asset is something that fundamentally you like which for the gold miners I do but let's go over to CNBC and check out what's happening with gold itself and big day today up 1.21% 21% and I think this is an all-time high. Oh, it sure is. Wonder. Well, no, it doesn't say. Usually, it says 52- week high, but that's if it's not a 52- week. If it's not an alltime high, it's got to be really close. I mean, it cracked 3500. So, by the way, the last video I did, and I I want to pat myself on the back a little bit here because the last whiteboard video I did where I talked about the gold price and where it could go. This was about a year ago exactly. And at the time, the gold price was uh let's see, let's go back a year. The gold price was call it 2500 or so, something like that. And my prediction for one year from that video was the nominal price of gold would be 3500. And I could not have nailed that. Now I don't get everything right, but this is one prediction that I made that just came true almost exactly and even the time frame was almost exact. So I mean this charts I mean you've got a breakout above support. You've got the consolidation right here which you typically see. Uh this is really good. In fact, you know what's interesting is I was I was listening to a podcast today where they were talking about the kind of mechanics as to why you usually see this consolidation or this kind of big move up and then you see kind of it just flat bounce back and forth with gold and then you see another big move up. And they said their their hypothesis was once you get to a certain level, you've got big institutional sellers of gold for because of an algorithm or whatever the reason, they sell gold at that price. But then once so every time it gets to that, you've got a bunch of supply that hits the market. But once those institutional sellers for whatever reason the alos call it once they exhaust the supply that they're selling then it's and the demand is still there then the price just goes higher and usually rockets higher. So it's looking good for gold for sure. We'll have to see how this plays out. But again, the JDXJ gone up way more, which is all about that catch-up trade that you usually see with gold when you have these big huge bull markets. So, the the problem with this, like I said, this allows me to talk about our sponsor here, is when the value of your gold goes up, the cost of storage goes up as well. So, with Monetary Metals, and it's monetary-metals.comgamin, which got the URL right this time. Uh, I'd check them out. And why? Because you are able to use them for gold storage. They have a leasing program that you can participate in or not where they lease the gold to jewelers and they actually pay you and the interest is paid in gold. So the the model gets uh it's not really complex, but it's rather unique, so people don't really understand it. So I I'll go ahead and put a link in the description of a whiteboard video that I did that explains a little bit better, but you just got to give them a call. And I'm good buddies with Keith, who's the owner, and Brent Johnson, by the way, just joined their board of directors. So that's really cool as well. But before I was willing to bring them on as a sponsor, I wanted to set up my own my own account there. And I did that maybe three or four months ago. I've got about $45 $50,000, maybe more now because the price has gone up so much. But I've got, let's just say 45 $50,000 of gold there. And I just kind of wanted to play around with it, press all the buttons, you know, participate in some leases, not others, just so I could get a good idea of how it works. So then if I liked it, I could go ahead and let you guys know. And if I didn't like it, we said let you know as well, even if they were a sponsor. And uh it's been a great experience. It's it's very userfriendly. If you have any questions, you know, you can email them directly. So I'd strongly suggest checking them out if you feel as though this is something that's right for you. And again, we'll put an explainer video as to how their business model works and how gold leasing works with jewelers and maybe some of the reasons that a jeweler would want to participate or would want to be the counterparty in that gold leasing uh program. And uh if you have any questions, just go ahead and give them a call. Their website uh I usually have it up here is monetarymetals.com or excuse me monetary-medals.com/gamon and you can just tell them I sent you. But this homepage is pretty I think they've actually changed the homepage since uh I started working with them. And I don't know if this is if I had anything to do any influence on the fact that they're doing three simple fast steps. I'll have to ask Keith next time I see him. I think I'm going to see him in New Orleans. But, uh, this gives you an idea of what they do. And again, if you have any questions, don't hesitate to call them and see if it's maybe something that's, uh, a good fit. And actually, while we're on the topic, I want to see what else is happening. I really want to see what's happening in bonds. I know I'm really bouncing around here today, but uh there's a lot of good stuff to talk about. Let's look at the 10-year. Now, this is really interesting because everyone's talking about stagflation, stagflation, stagflation. And I get it when you look at the PPI, but let's not forget, guys, the 10-year Treasury is trading under Fed funds. Like that that is. And maybe the bond market is wrong. Maybe it's completely wrong. very well could be. I mean, it definitely didn't go up in lock step with the CPI during 2021 and 2022, that's for sure. But I if if we were really really really headed toward what the market perceived to be long-term acceleration of inflation and notice I said long-term not just up for 6 months due to tariffs or something like that but really really long term like something you saw in the 1970s you you would not see the 10-year Treasury trading under Fed funds. You would see the it would steepen out. Now, I know it's steepened out the belly of the curve in the 2-year 10 year, but you would see a huge bear steepener, massive bare steepener, and we're just not seeing it. And again, the bond market could be completely wrong, but you at least have to look at this price action and include that in your overall analysis. And same thing with the 2-year. And I I know the two-year is kind of front running the Fed and whatnot. That's part of the price action or the action on the yield. But I mean, look at this. You're telling me that we're going to have massive step and I'm part of it the the definition, right? Because some people would just say the economy is slowing while the um PPI or while the inflation is running a little bit hotter than the Fed would like. That's their definition of stagflation. And that's fair, but that's not really my definition of stagflation. I don't think that's what most people think of when they hear the word. I think when most people hear stagflation, they think of extremely high unemployment rates and an acceleration of inflation. So, as an example, CPI going from 2.7 to 3.5 to 4.8 to just kind of uh that almost exponential move up. And uh it's just maybe the bond market's wrong, but I'm just I'm not seeing it. And as far as gold, I don't think the price action in gold is a reflection of inflation expectations. I think it's more a reflection of especially global central banks just not wanting to deal with anti any counterparty risk. Um just because they don't know what the hell Trump is going to do. They've seen, you know, the Biden administration freeze up accounts and do the sanctions and all of a sudden Russia's dollar assets are no longer their assets. And I just think this is a continuation. And maybe, just maybe, uh, this move up that you can see right here was all central banks, which I think it was. And maybe, just maybe, this next move up is going to be a result of retail participation, which I think is a a a decent theory uh or a likely theory due to the price action that we saw in the GDXJ um and also the price action that we're seeing in silver, which I think is also at all-time highs. Okay, one jeez, I keep forgetting here. One last thing I want to go over what we should expect as far as the calendar next week. Uh let's see if we've got some big news coming up. We've uh Okay, September 1. Oh, Labor Day. You know, now that I don't live in the States, I just totally space out on all the holidays. ISM, that is something I'll be interested in. I mean, anything under 50 is a contraction. Um let's see. Good job. Openings. Okay. Oh, Beige Book. That's something that we'll definitely have to pay an ADP. There you go. There you go. Oh, and we've got the next Oh my goodness gracious. Okay. We could see some serious fireworks here because we've got the next and the first unemployment report or US employment report with the new guy, the by the way, the guy that wants to stop doing monthly data reports and just go to quarterly. And I get it. I get it because what would you do if you were in his position? Because you've got that hanging over your head that the numbers better look good. The numbers better look good. But you're probably an ethical guy and you're probably like, "If the numbers aren't good, I mean, I'm between a rock and a hard place, so let's just not report the numbers." So, this is going to be this is going to be big news. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch and see what happens and then to juxtapose that with the ADP employment report that comes out the day prior. So, next week is going to be a really, really huge week in terms of the news. All right, guys. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon. Enjoy your weekend. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. We'll see you on the next video.