Steve Barton: Gold, Silver, Uranium — Price Targets and Key Levels to Watch
Summary
Gold Price Targets: Steve Barton discusses the recent breakout in gold prices, predicting a potential rise to $4,000, with further targets at $4,300 based on technical patterns like the cup and handle and Fibonacci extensions.
Investment Strategy: Barton advises gold investors to consider trimming their positions as prices rise, suggesting a disciplined approach similar to money management to maintain balanced portfolio allocations.
Silver Market Insights: Silver has surpassed previous resistance levels, with Barton forecasting a potential rise to $48, driven by technical patterns and outperforming gold in the near term.
Platinum and Uranium Outlook: Barton highlights platinum's recent breakout and potential to outperform silver, while also emphasizing uranium's strong fundamentals and recommending the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust as a strategic investment.
Oil and Gas Market Trends: Despite a potential short-term rise, Barton anticipates a recession-driven sell-off in oil prices, suggesting opportunities to buy at lower levels, particularly through ETFs like XLE.
Nickel and Copper Opportunities: Barton identifies nickel as an undervalued commodity with potential for a significant price correction, while maintaining a bullish long-term view on copper despite recession concerns.
Technical Analysis Course: Barton offers a beginner-friendly technical analysis course to help investors make informed buy and sell decisions, emphasizing the importance of aligning fundamentals with technical signals.
Transcript
[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Steve Barton, host of the In It to Win It Show. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. Well, thank you, Charlotte. It's a pleasure. Really good to be back with you. We're catching up after our last conversation just a couple months ago, but so much has happened. And today, of course, I want to start with gold because it's been having such an exciting time lately. I remember during that last conversation, I asked you, okay, how is gold going to perform over the course of the summer? You told us probably going to move sideways for a little while longer and then start moving back up, which of course we've seen. So, now we need to look forward to Q4 and and see what you see coming for gold there. Okay. Uh if I could share my screen here and um I'm going to go right to the um uh to the gold chart. And so we had this um kind of sideways consolidation here that we were talking about, right? We had the nice run in gold uh going up. This is the gold futures chart. And then almost like a bull flag kind of sideways consolidation and then we had the breakout. And so my next target for that was uh 3751. I really got into the weeds there. But anyways, just remember 3750 and uh I I thought we would hit that and then have a decentsized retracement, probably something down here down to like the 200 day moving average, which is this blue line. Uh we blew through that like a hot knife through butter in the last couple of days. And I think the next upside target is probably going to be $4,000 gold. Now, the way I got that was if we go out longterm here, I'm going to go to the weekly chart on gold. We'll get rid of the RSI and MACD here. And we've got this super bullish cup and handle pattern right here. Right, like that. And then now we've had this beautiful breakout. And there's two ways to measure uh targets on a cup and handle pattern. And one of them is to use what's called uh just I I call it the value target. And basically, you just take the bottom of the cup to the top right side of the cup and see we've got about a $1,000 move. And then you extend this up to the breakout. And we can see that we've surpassed that. We've gotten up to, you know, that was around 3100 or so. That has come and gone. The next way to measure it is to do the logarithmic target. And so you take the log target, which is the percentage move, and we basically have a 100% move from the bottom of the cup to the top right side of the cup. And if we extend that out, we can see that from going from there up to a 100% move, if I shrink this down just a little bit, anyways, it takes you right around 4,000, maybe 4,100 or so. Another way you can measure the target would be using a Fibonacci extension, which is how I got the 3750 target. And the next targets up there, depending on where you measure it from, some going back as far as 25 years, others a little bit more recent. Uh, the next number I get after 4,000 is around 4,300. I do got to say I think I would be pretty shocked if we got up to 4,000 and didn't have some type of of corrective move. Uh, I suppose anything's possible. We blew through the 3750. I didn't expect that. Uh, so maybe it'll go on up, but um, yeah, we're getting pretty stretched here. I think, you know, for most people that are, you know, u watching and they've got a lot of gold stocks, I think that we we you really need to think about trimming. You know, maybe treat it like a money manager. And if you've got 20% of your account in gold and gold stocks and you know, with this last run, you know, maybe you've gotten up to 22, 23, 24%. Maybe knock it back down to 20. You know, take you got to pay yourself at some point. you know, when I go here to the uh uh GDX, I mean, this has just been a I on on my show, I put in these red, yellow, and green lines as kind of like, you know, limit order entry points, and I haven't really been able to move these things up in good conscience because I just feel like we've just gotten way too stretched, you know? Yeah. Yeah. This is really interesting to look at. I like how you show the multiple ways we can get up to that next gold price target. A number of points I want to follow up on. I think the first direction I want to go. So, we're looking at that 4,000 level next for gold. And I know last time we were talking, you're kind of saying 4,000 by the end of the year. Is that still when you think we'll get there or or is that move forward now that we've seen all this other price activity? I think it could happen pretty quickly. I really do. I I think it um yeah, just the way these breakouts are going, the patterns I'm seeing, I mean, uh it wouldn't surprise me if they're if we're there within the next month or month and a half. Yeah, I think that's definitely sounding more and more possible the further forward we go here. And so maybe then we can talk a little bit more about those potential entry points for people who are just getting into gold or maybe they still want to add to their position as they see this further price increase coming forward. Okay. I'm I'm kind of a bottom picker, you know. I'm the guy that that kind of collects here while the bull flag is forming, you know. Uh if if we go to the GDX here, the green arrows are my entry points and the red arrows are where I'm trimming. Anytime you see this, this is kind of like a running joke on my show past the point of concern. I got I got it from Rick Rule. Basically selling enough to where your position is free. So I'm not really the guy that can buy these like breakouts here. What I like to do is I like to see radical corrections and then I I kind of catch double bottoms where you know where if this shoots up and then it were to come down to the same price point like right there, I would be the guy that would catch that double bottom on the next wave up. And if it's any consolation, I think the further and faster this moves up, I think the harder the correction will be. Like honestly, what would have been best I think for long-term gold investors is for this to have hit the 3750 and then correct back down here to the 3500 level or even better down here to the 200 day mo uh moving average and then bounce up. That I think would have created a much longer, more sustainable uh uh bull run. This kind of blowoff top that I'm seeing here um I I I just I just can't press the buy button on something like that, you know. Um, I would be patient here and I would uh I would wait for a retrace and and that may sound a little strange. You know, I just said that I think it's probably going to 4,000. Yeah, but are you going to be able to like buy here at 3,800 and then sell at 4,000? I don't know. You're a better man than I am if you could do that at uh I don't know if I could, you know, we could get another little target here. This is a quasi like bull flag right here. It's not a very good one. I don't know that it's one that I would really trade, but but it's it's something. And we take that measured move right here, add it up to the top, and we've already had a little breakout of that, and it could go up to there around 4,100 or so, which kind of lines up with the logarithmic target that we talked about before on the cup and handle. Um, yeah, as far as entry points here on gold stocks, I've I've generally been a seller, uh, not a buyer. I think it makes a lot of sense how you're explaining it there. And one thing I wanted to ask you when it comes to looking at the gold price. So from my understanding when you're doing technical analysis, it's looking at a lot of patterns looking back at historical performance. And when we get into times like this, when we're kind of in uncharted territory for gold at all-time highs, does that impact how you're looking at the charts there? Does that impact the work that you're doing? Yeah, it does a lot. Uh, for example, let me Okay, so if I go back on the gold chart here, once we've broken out to all-time highs, you're kind of in no man's land, you know, like it hasn't been done before. There's a This is a whole new price range. So, there's no real back test. Like, if I go to the silver chart here, uh, let me hide the drawings here just so we can clean it up a little bit. um go out to the weekly and we can see that we've had a top back here of you know 1980 around $50 and then another one here around 2011. So that's kind of what you're referencing, right? So when we we can all see that back here in around 2011 it got up to the same point around $44. Okay? So that's going to act as resistance and then again it got up here to like 48, right? So that's going to act as as resistance when the price gets there. But once you blow past that, once once we get up to 52, 53, it's never been done before. So there's no reference to uh to look back on in history to see like, okay, where could be some hiccups? Where could be some stopping points on this? What you have to do on that point like we're doing now with gold is you have to use uh extension targets like Fibonacci extension. You got to use cup and handle patterns. Okay, what's the upside target on that? um you have to look at past breakouts and see how far did it move in in in the past breakouts and what could that look like in today's dollar. So yeah, definitely when when you're in new all-time highs, it kind of enters a different phase of technical analysis, one that's a lot less certain. Very very interesting to go into that and I know that you're really focused on the technical side, but for gold, it's got so many fundamental factors right now that are in its corner and helping to drive it. So, I thought I'd spend at least a little bit of time there and ask you when you look at kind of the fundamental side. What are you picking out as maybe gold's top driver at the moment? What are you focusing on there? Oh, uh, okay. Well, here's one. Uh, this is the M2 money supply. Good one. Good one. as this goes up, right? Like as governments around the world as they print more currency, uh it takes more of those dollars or yen or yuan or whatever to buy the same goods and services. And so as the money supply goes up, uh the price of gold and silver and you know cost of a barrel of oil and you know a pound of copper fill in the blank is going to go up. So governments have kind of entered into this experiment on August 15th um 1950 I'm sorry 1971 where they're all just on a fake fiat currency and it you know it's kind of like some of our mentors say like it's the cleanest shirt and the dirty laundry the dollar is. So you kind of base it on that. But I think like a lot of these I have uh you know I compare a lot of commodities to gold because I look at gold as real money and uh you know these currencies are just kind of floating aspects in time compared against each other. I think if you can compare it against something like you know start looking and thinking of things in like well how how much how much is a house priced in barrels of oil? How much is a house priced in thousand bars of silver? you know, if you can kind of compare things, uh, you know, their cost, not in relation to the currency that you're using, but in relation to the average cost of an SUV, you know, that I think kind of lets you know what's going on with it. So, long story short, fundamentally, I still think there is some major tailwinds for gold. I just I'm starting to see some cracks in the general market. I mean, um, you know, the jobs market isn't looking very good. That is way under reportported. there are far more people unemployed than they're talking about. I think we're going to enter into a recession. And when that happens, historically, gold usually has a selloff because it acts like it should. It it's it's real money and people use it as so. And and nobody cares about uh their gold stocks when they lose their job. They got to pay for it so they could pay the mortgage and put food on the table. And I think we'll have a pretty good correction and I think we're getting closer and closer to that. You know, the further and faster this moves up, I think the harder uh the fall will be. And um yeah, I'm kind of looking forward to that. I think I I've been raising some cash and uh so my followers and I think when that comes, it's going to be a nice little uh u when everyone else is selling and getting out, that's kind of when you need to double down, you know. Yeah, great takeaways there and a good chart to go along with it. And I want to spend just a little bit more time looking at the gold stocks cuz I remember last time we're talking I believe it was you just sold Bareric and Pneumont and you're talking about a rotation toward mid tiers and so I'm wondering if we can check in on your your current gold stock strategy. I imagine that's kind of still the direction that you're going in, but anything further you'd add on that note. Yeah, I would say generally speaking, uh I've been selling. Okay, so here's uh here's GDX. Um, and uh, I'm probably going to trim a little bit more on this one. Uh, same with GDXJ. Usually when you get a chart that just has, you know, eight candles that are all green and gapping up like this, that is completely unsustainable, you know, and uh, so I'm going to be selling there. You're right. I did get out of um, uh, Pneumont, got out of Bareric, uh, kept my Agniko Eagle position, and I rotated a lot of that into Equinox Gold. I think those mid-tier ones uh are going to be doing well kind of in this part of the cycle, but they've also had a really fast run really quick. If I just pull up uh uh EQX here real real fast, we can take a look at that. And um yeah, since our last interview, it looks like I was psychic. Uh but yeah, basically we're buying down here when nobody cared. And then we recently took uh profits on that, you know. So, it kind of got up to our targets here, right in between these two um two white lines and we uh we took profits in there. But I really don't feel good about recommending this one until it gets back down here to the red, yellow, and green lines, which I hope happens. I really do. I hope that I hope that this sells off like like I'm anticipating and uh and has a nice little correction and then we can rinse and repeat the game again, you know. But I think a lot of these things, you know, the the hate that was uh surrounding some of these mid tiers is completely gone. And you know, um from what I've heard of Beaver Creek, I wasn't there. I've heard there was a lot of companies there that that people haven't seen in a long time. And and uh you know, that's usually not a good sign. That means that things are overs subscribed. You know what I mean? That there's there's too much euphoria around it. Like I like to find uh assets that are hated and cheap and gold stocks are not hated anymore. They've they've become I think they've entered loved, you know, and I think we need a little wash out here to kind of get some uh as Rick would say some jilted lovers uh in in the market and then that's that's when I'll strike again. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's certainly been a change and another good chart that shows us just how quickly things can move. All right. So, I think we've taken a pretty good look at gold and also of course want to see what's going on in silver. We've seen the price get past $44 per ounce and when we were talking last you were giving us a target of 414150 or so to watch. So, of course, we also need to ask what is the next silver price target that you're looking at? Okay. Yeah. So, last time we talked, we were uh approaching 4150 and that uh that hit some sideways resistance kind of like gold did for a while having that bull flag. This had a similar formation. So, my next target on that after 4150 was 44. And it looks like we're going to go through that. I mean, as we're recording today, it uh uh this is this is an impressive looking chart. And and I'm a little shocked. I I thought that uh uh once we hit 44, it would be a pretty quick correction and on the way back down. But if I go back on the silver chart, we can see the last time we did it, I alluded to it just a little bit earlier, is we could see this one bar right here, the high price right here was 4427 12 and today we're sitting at 44.56. So we've exceeded that um which is exciting and surprising as well. So, the next stop that I see, if I bring back this Fibonacci extension tool, uh, puts us right around, uh, $48. And so, I could see us getting up to maybe just a little south of that, $47, something like that. Th50, basically creating a triple top, right? Basically creating. Now, the $50 over here in 1980 doesn't even really show up on the chart, but it it's there. someone uh paid for it. But you can basically run a line straight across here and for it to hit this and break through, I would be pretty surprised. I think what's going to what's most likely to happen is we're probably going to come up to that, touch it, and then have a pretty nice correction. You know, back here when silver was 18 bucks an ounce, the average all-in sustaining cost for the miners was 19. So, the price had to go up, you know, or the supply is going to dwindle because they're not making a profit, right? Uh the price doesn't have to go up anymore, right? The silver miners are making massive profits here. And uh it doesn't have to keep going up. The only reason I think that it's going to is because of what's happening with the economy. We got a little interm before the recession really starts to do its worst. And I think that's when people will start liquidating their positions. But like if we look at some of the uh um uh like here's the gold to silver ratio. This is this is pretty interesting and because it's happening like yesterday and today is we've had this triangle pattern here that has let me get rid of the volume so you can see it a little bit better. There we go. See we've had like this little touch touch and breakdown. So it looks to me like silver is going to outperform gold here. Now, they could both move up, but I think silver is going to move up a little bit faster because it's broken this pattern. And so, the next like like real thing to catch it, I mean, is somewhere around like 82 to1 and then we could get all the way down here to maybe like 78 75 to1. So, silver could have a pretty nice outperformance here. Um, you know, driving it higher there as far as in relation to gold. This one is an interesting one and we just took profits on this yesterday. This is the SIJ, so the uh junior silver miners ETF. Um I mean here, this is back in 2013 when in its inception and after that you can see it just entered into a massive bare market. But this has kind of a little cycle to it. You know, some guys call them time counts. I I just I don't know what I I don't even know if I have a word for it, but uh see how it just kind of follows this cycle of like this U and this U. Like, does that look sustainable? You know, I I at some point you got to pay yourself. Now, I haven't sold everything. What if I'm wrong and this thing just blows up and and goes to $50 a share or something. I want to still be in the game, you know. Uh but I I've I've certainly I forgot to put the PTP here. Yeah, I am well free on this one and so are my uh uh listeners and and you know, I mean, that's kind of textbook right there. Just pick the high. See, there's another one right here. You can probably already see it, but I'll draw it. is you got kind of this downward channel trend line right there. Like those are little points where you can kind of take profits, you know, but when it's just screaming and all you see on the weekly chart are just green, green, green, green, green, gap up, like you got you got to click the sell button at some point in my opinion. Yeah. Yeah, I definitely see what you mean. Okay. So, looking at silver, we have that $48 level that you mentioned you're looking for. I'm going to ask again, do you have a do you have a time frame on that that you would assign there? How are you looking at it? Time frames are tough. Um, but I I think sooner rather than later, probably in the next um oh man, I don't know, few weeks, something like that, maybe a month. I if it's going to go, it's going to go quick. Uh, and you know, if if this is going to reverse, I think it's going to reverse quick. But, uh, my money's on up. I I think, and again, I'm not I'm not a breakout guy, you know what I mean? I'm a bottom picker, so I I can't buy these, you know? I'm selling here. But uh it looks to me like it's it's probably going to hit 48. Yeah. Yeah. I know. I know the timing is really tough. So, thank you. Appreciate you going into that. And also on the precious metals note, so before we turn the camera on, we're talking a little bit about what's going on with platinum and you're mentioning that the chart is looking pretty interesting today. So platinum is one for me it's kind of been in and out of the news as the price moves this year. So what are you seeing right now? How's it looking? Okay, this is really interesting and uh I saw this in real time when we were talking. I I clicked on platinum and oh wow, that's pretty cool. So long-term view here on platinum. Okay, we had massive move up and then down and then up and then just kind of consolidated here in platinum and it was pretty boring for about I don't know 10 years or so since like 2015. It it just kind of hung around the an average cost of around $950 somewhere around there. Recently, we've just broken up to the upside. Uh, which is fantastic because we've had platinum shortages for a while. I know you talked to uh Ed Sturk a lot and I started having them on my show and uh there is a platinum deficit forecast uh for the foreseeable future. So, that's encouraging if you're a platinum investor. Uh so, here's where we are now. Uh basically, let me go to the daily here. I kind of like any entries anywhere around um 1,400 bucks, you know, somewhere around there. I think that's kind of our new price. We're talking about platinum for 2 years and nobody cared, you know, it was $900 and anytime it got down there. But the risk of that was, you know, the risk of being a bottom picker is you could be a bottom picker for a decade and just be wrong, you know, and there is a time value cost of uh of money on that. You know what I mean? Inflation is eating away at your at your dollar. But the fundamental case for it was basically that uh there there's a diminishing um uh supply uh increasing demand and u these miners are kind of running out of cost effective platinum to pull out of the ground. So eventually that reversed. It looks like we're here and I think this one could actually outperform silver which is kind of a bold statement. But if we go here to the platinum to gold ratio, this is basically how I'm playing it is I'm not necessarily looking at the price so much of platinum is I'm looking at the ratio and the ratio of uh platinum to gold and platinum to silver. And the further down this is on the chart here, the cheaper platinum is compared to gold. And the higher up on the chart it is, the more expensive platinum is to gold. And same thing here with silver is the further down here the cheaper platinum is in relation to silver and then the higher the more expensive. So basically what I'm going to do is I'm going to start selling my platinum or trading it for gold once we reach these levels. So once platinum gets to par with gold, once you could trade 1 ounce of platinum for 1 oz of gold, right? Then I'm going to trade half of my platinum for gold, once it gets up to 1 and a half to one, I'm going to trade another 30% and then if it ever gets to 2x to gold, which I think it will, uh, then I will trade the remaining bet that I have on platinum for gold. Um, but yeah, now platinum in relation to those two metals are extremely cheap. Even though we've had a nice run here, it will be interesting to see if we get a little breakout from this from this trend line right here. You need three points to make a trend line. And we've got three right there. It looks like once this hits up to the fourth one, this may actually be a breakout that I could buy. Okay, like a triple top hit three times, this would be the fourth one. And it looks like it's coming here pretty soon. So, if it got up to, let's see what level that would be. That would be around call it 1530. If it broke out to 1530 in the next day or two, I would actually probably buy more platinum. So, that may be one example where I could buy the breakout. Okay. Okay. There's always an exception. I think that proves the rule. So, that's what it is there. All right. Really good to take a look at platinum. It's definitely interesting. And I I've been speaking to Ed Sturk for years. We spent years, I think, talking about those positive fundamentals before the price started to move. So, it's it's just it's interesting to see how you have to balance the timing. All right. So, let's move over to uranium, which is another one where I think the timing is key. We had talked about that last time as well, and we're speaking about that disconnect between the term price and the spot price, and you're mentioning, all right, the term price was higher than the spot price, so there was some room for it to move up. So, probably interesting to take a look at how that's been playing out since that conversation. Yeah. So, we've gotten a little bit of catch-up here. the uh term price, the cheapest term price going 12 months or more out right now is sitting at $81. Okay. And today we're sitting at 778.15. So we're pretty close. We're not as cheap as we were before. When we were talking before it was around 70 bucks or so. That gap is closed. So the bet isn't as good as it was uh back then, but I still think that there's some room for uranium to go here. The fundamental argument is still very very good. And one of the things that I've been doing personally, you know, not financial advice or anything, but uh one one thing I've been doing is I've been storing some of my dollars in this fund right here. And this is SR UF. This is the SPRAT physical uh uranium trust. And I just think uranium is going to outperform uh pretty much every currency on the planet. And so if you can get into this fund and basically store your dollars, I think that's a better bet than your currency. As far as cash, it's super liquid for you know uh anyone watching this show and um you know for all our followers and uh I like it a lot. Uh there is an interesting pattern right here that I shared on my show. Now we talked about the cup and handle pattern before and so for a cup and handle it needs to be in a bullish uptrend. Click and then here you got the cup the handle and then off. And we've just had a breakout here on the um uh on the on the cup and handle. So, we could do the same thing and we could do a measured upside target just like we um uh like we did on the last one. And we basically just take the bottom of the cup to the top right side and then project it up. I won't bother with the log target here because we got to get to this the value target first. But that would take this fund up to 21 $22 somewhere in that range. And uh so I think it could have another couple bucks to go. Um but yeah, I like this fund a lot. I've got 5% of my account in it. Maybe that's a little heavy to be all into uranium. I suppose we're one Fukushima away from that bet blowing up. But uh but yeah, I like this one a lot. But I I will be I will be trimming it. I think um you know, one of one of the other ways that I would look as times to trim this would be when this moves to a premium. If you go to the if you go to Sprat's website, they literally display what what the cost of uranium is and what you can buy it for in this fund. And when it historically whenever this thing gets down to like a, you know, 15%, 12%, I've seen as high as 18% discount. In other words, you could buy $100 worth of uranium, but it only cost you 82. That's a pretty good deal in my book. You know what I mean? So, that's kind of where the green arrows are. And then our uh u you know the kindergarten way to sell it is once that goes to a premium then then I unload it. Um but this is one exception here in that uh the bullish case right now and the fundamentals for it are so good and I think the fundamentals for the dollar are pretty bad that I don't mind hanging on to this even though it's at a premium because I think it'll outperform cash. Yeah. Yeah. That's an interesting way to frame it that I think might help people understand it a little bit more the the opportunity there. And I want to take a little bit of a look at the uranium equities as well because I remember you had told us maybe they were getting a little bit ahead of themselves. And my sense is that since we're talking previously, the developments in the uranium market may have pushed some of those stocks even further. I know we had among other developments because there's always things happening in uranium but the US administration potentially talking about increasing uranium reserves. So for the stocks how are you feeling? That's pretty well said. I think they're pretty stretched. If we go back here is this. So this is URMM right? And uh if if if you have no uranium and you just want to get in uranium after you've purchased SRUF, I think this is the next best thing. And we can see historically, so this this came into be around 2019. And uh the first big move here was 165%. And then we had a nice little 30% sell-off here. And then the next move up was 105. And then it was just boring forever like for a couple of years, right? This is when I learned about it or you would have seen green hours over here. Uh then we had 103% move. Red arrows sell. Nice correction. Should have sold there, but you know, now that I could see the future, I could see straight looking backwards. kept buying more and buying more and then trimming position, right? So, it's more than 2% of the account now. It was probably higher than that with this last couple of days, but this is kind of one of those kindergarten methods in technical analysis, right? We look back over here around 60 bucks on this day. It got up to 5952. So, we've exceeded the all-time highs right here from the previous one. if there's any time to trim and take some profits, that's that's your that's your that's the easiest one you're going to get. You know what I mean? And I don't think it's a coincidence that we're having a little bit of hesitation right here and it's not just blowing through it. It's because all as technical analysis, we're all looking at the same thing, you know? I mean, with some exceptions, some guys have different moving averages or whatever, but the vast majority of us are just looking at the same thing and we see the same thing on the charts. when you see it touching uh you know a previous all-time high, there's a bunch of people taking profits there. You know what I mean? That's that's not a coincidence. So, I I think it'd be prudent to do that. You know, if you got in down here around when uh Trump did his liberation day and everything sold off, you know, I mean, you you're up 118%. Today, some point you got to click the sell button, you know. Yeah. Yeah. It's always a good reminder. You do have to remember to do that at certain points and not get too attached. So also on the energy side, I remember you are liking oil and gas as well. So this is less of a a strong point for me. So I'm wondering if you can review the price action perhaps that we've been seeing in oil and what the charts are are telling you there in terms of what comes next. Okay. Yeah, the oil is really interesting. I I put something out to premium subscribers to watch this white line right here. Let me get the volume out of the way so you can see it better. But you could see that right here it hit, if I hover over this, it hit a low of 6145. This is WTI. Uh, and then here it hit 6145. And we're waiting for it to hit 6145 and break down or break up. And it just never quite got there. It got right here to 6161. Uh, maybe that was tradable. Maybe not. Maybe I'm getting a little bit too Sometimes I get too far into the weeds. But I was looking for an opportunity to short oil this week and that doesn't look like it's going to happen. It looks like oil is going to move up next week. But I think ultimately we probably do get a little bit of a breakdown here in some of the oil equities. And uh I'm I'm kind of hoping going into this economic recession, if I'm right, that we're going to have one. I I think oil is probably going to get sold off because that's usually what happens during recessions. you know, people travel less and companies need less uh energy for their businesses because people are buying less stuff. Uh so the energy to do that oil uh usually goes down. So I'd like to catch a little shorting opportunity here. Um but generally speaking, I think we're probably going to have a breakdown in oil. Some of the levels that I'm watching around $60 and then this one right over here would be 55. So if it gets down to that point, here's a really easy one that just about everyone can bet. This is XLE. Uh so this is uh um basically an oil ETF. The biggest holdings are the two best companies, Exxon and Chevron. And then it goes down from there. Accidental and Kico Phillips and all that. Um but you know, I think for a lot of people in their 401ks and retirement accounts, this is a really easy one. And they're offered almost everywhere. I like this spot right here a lot and that's why I got the red line drawn on it. And it just, you can see it just came down there perfectly and then just bounced right up. And it it's not super scientific. All it is is we're just looking right here at this 200 day moving average is the darker one and the 50-day moving average is slightly lighter and it's crossing above. So that in technical analysis is called a golden cross and uh yeah that's that's a pretty easy uh entry point right there. Now I would expect in a recession that this is going to sell off even more. So after that let's say your level if you haven't bet this one yet that would be your first entry point 87 or maybe a couple cents above. And if I'm right and this gets go going going through, it'll hit that one. And then the next level of support is going to be right here. It's going to be 8450. Okay? And then the one after that, I got down at 79.25. But remember, oil can get stupid. When it got into CO, this was the trade of my life when oil went negative. I mean, these went way down. So, this could have a super wash out. But if uh our mentors are right, the average all-in sustaining cost of a barrel of oil worldwide is 60 bucks a barrel, and that's pretty much where we're at. So, if it goes down below that for any sustained amount of time, they're going to start shutting down a lot of these oil wells, creating a supply crunch, and um and and it'll reverse. And so, yeah, I everyone's real excited about gold and silver and uranium right now. I think you got to look at like what's really cheap, you know, what's what's what's the next thing to move, right? Like like we talked about platinum's probably about ready to have a breakout. You know, I'd be more focused on taking some of the profits from gold and silver and putting them into platinum or taking some of the profits from gold and silver and putting it into oil. You know, uh nickel's also really cheap right now. That chart looks amazing. Um if if you don't I I'll let you lead this. I'm sorry. I don't mean to get No, no, no. Absolutely. I feel like I always am frontloading the conversations with what is hot right now, the gold and the silver, but these are the real opportunities. So, let's talk about nickel if you're if you're seeing something there. Okay. Yeah. So, here's the um uh here's the spot price of nickel. So, it's about 15,000 a ton. And we can see this is pretty volatile, which is just, you know, this is exactly what we're looking for in as as commodity investors, right? I mean, you just want to see just some massive spikes, massive declines. You want it to look like the lithium chart where it just goes parabolic and then comes back down because that's where you can really make some money. Now, this is where I get really excited is if we zoom in here, if I get rid of the moving averages here and I'll turn this into a line chart so that it uh uh maybe is a little easier to see. I mean, you can see this just looks like a dying heartbeat, right? So, this is basically the uh the cost of of nickel. Right now, we had some little spikes here in 2024 and then came back down and then we had this little drop right here. This was on Trump's liberation day when he held up the chalkboard with all the tariffs. So, we're going to, you know, tariff this island 113% or whatever. Right. So, even on that when everything got smoked to the downside, this really didn't fall that much. I mean, it only fell what is that 10% or something? Yeah, like 10%. Okay, so this is basically the cost of nickel. The fundamental bet with this is they have a lot of really cheap nickel coming out of Indonesia right now and it's all run by Chinese companies. And basically what they've done is they've paid off the politicians there to allow them to run this the these cheap uh nickel mines and they're just destroying the islands. You can see it on Google Maps if you can just see the damage that's done. Now, the local people are trying to stop that and trying to clean it up. But the politicians are paid off by China to not do so. So, when does that game end? I have no idea. I have no idea. This This is kind of like when we're betting platinum 2 years ago and the chart looked very similar to this. You know, when is this just going to keep going on and on and on for the next 8 years? or are we going to have a violent rerating when the people of Indonesia win and we uh you know we stop mining there and instantly the nickel price is going to rerate and it's going to rerate violently. But I have no idea when that's going to happen and you got to be positioned before it does. So I like this one a lot right now. I really do. Easy beta way to play it is Nikk. Uh this is just a SPR nickel miners ETF and um you know you're getting a lot of the good, bad, and the ugly, but this is a way that just about everyone can play it. And caveat here, this is this is very very small market cap. No one's betting on this. I mean like look at look at the volume right here so far today. Uh 10,000 shares. Limit orders only. Be patient. Uh wait for a retrace. Here's here's the lines I got. 1225, 1150, 1075. you know, you don't uh uh but you know, you go up here to URMM and look at the volumes on URMM here. Okay, we got 549,000 shares so far just a day. Okay, so so don't don't get happy with the market orders on on that ETF, but but that's an opportunity I see right now is a nickel for sure. That's a that's a great one to go into looking for those hated sectors and it does feel like something that is unsustainable at at some point in time. We don't know when, but I'm sure the situation will change. So, really interesting to look at nickel. And I'll bring in another base metal as well that I wanted to talk about, which is copper. And you're mentioning recession concerns, and I know that people look at copper as kind of a bellweather for the global economy and what can it be telling us about what's happening there. So, I wondered if we could take a look at copper in that context. Yeah. Um, basically what we've had here, so I think a lot of this we got a kind of discount. Uh, this was the Trump tariff. I think he he said on the news or something, we're going to do a 50% tax on copper and then anyway said, "Oh, I was just kidding." This is how I'm looking at it and how I've been playing it for the last 3 years is this white trend line right here of copper. Okay? And anytime the price action has gotten down to here, it is just been a good time to buy, you know, and uh any one of these, there's the liberation day selloff. Uh we can line that up this point right here with COPX. This is an easy uh copper miners ETF that just about everyone can buy. And this is the sell-off right here. I was I was I was selling uh puts and being put to the stock right here. So, it was a little scary when it was just falling and I was purchasing 100 shares at a time. Uh, but uh but that, you know, turned out to work out pretty well. Um, I think copper is going to do amazing. I think that uh um it's it's we as a planet are consuming more and more copper every single year and the big copper miners um are are are going away and we're not discovering more. And so I think that's going to create a squeeze. I think it'll probably happen in the next, you know, during this decade. I I don't think you're going to have to wait until like 20 uh 2030 or anything like that. And it already has worked. I mean, if you've just boughten around this line, like if you just go to COPX here, just buy the dips down here, it's working. You know what I mean? I think this is going to be a little bit more of a slow grind. I don't know that it'll be the parabolic moves that we're all loving like with uranium and and gold. I think it'll be a little bit more of a of a slow grind, but but I definitely think it's going to happen. Now, there is some uh uh risk about what you talked about. If we are going into a global worldwide recession, uh typically when um you know, when we enter into a recession, copper gets hit and it usually gets hit pretty hard. I've done some work before with timing up the recessions and looking at those hits and it uh it it is a fairly accurate one, but as far as so far it's worked what I've done and I've been afraid of a recession since back here. I remember on my show in 2023 I did the top 13 reasons why we're going into a recession in 2023 and I've just been wrong. So, if that has held me and stopped me from buying copper, I would have missed out on being up 40% just in this fund. You know what I mean? So, I think sometimes things are cheap enough and this white line so far has just proven to be gospel and until that gets broken, I'm going to keep playing it that way. All right. Well, we have been through so much today, so thank you for going through all of these different topics. I will let you go unless you had any final thoughts. And I do know you also have a course that we should tell everybody about. We'll have the link in the video description. Yeah, it's a technical analysis video series for beginners. So, it's 3 hours worth of videos going over the charts just like you've seen here. The first 30 minutes are me showing you exactly click byclick how to set up the charts. So, the software is not an issue. It's easy. You can set up your screen just like I have mine or you can tailor it to however you want. And basically what we do is we take the fear out of buying and selling. I like to think of it like the fundamentals tell you what to buy and what to sell. And the technicals tell you when to do that, right? They tell you when to buy and they tell you when to sell. And it really is kind of a calming uh effect when there's FOMO and the chart is just screaming up. You know, if you can line that up with some previous highs, you can feel fairly confident on that. and we go over all of that in the technical analysis series. I'm getting a lot of positive feedback from it and I hope your viewers uh will find it helpful as well. Amazing. So, we will have the link down there and any final thoughts you would leave people with? Um yeah, if if you like what you see, check out the TA series and also go to stevebartmoney.com for more. Um and uh thank you for thank you for having me on the show. Of course. Once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Steve Barton with Init. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]
Steve Barton: Gold, Silver, Uranium — Price Targets and Key Levels to Watch
Summary
Transcript
[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Steve Barton, host of the In It to Win It Show. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. Well, thank you, Charlotte. It's a pleasure. Really good to be back with you. We're catching up after our last conversation just a couple months ago, but so much has happened. And today, of course, I want to start with gold because it's been having such an exciting time lately. I remember during that last conversation, I asked you, okay, how is gold going to perform over the course of the summer? You told us probably going to move sideways for a little while longer and then start moving back up, which of course we've seen. So, now we need to look forward to Q4 and and see what you see coming for gold there. Okay. Uh if I could share my screen here and um I'm going to go right to the um uh to the gold chart. And so we had this um kind of sideways consolidation here that we were talking about, right? We had the nice run in gold uh going up. This is the gold futures chart. And then almost like a bull flag kind of sideways consolidation and then we had the breakout. And so my next target for that was uh 3751. I really got into the weeds there. But anyways, just remember 3750 and uh I I thought we would hit that and then have a decentsized retracement, probably something down here down to like the 200 day moving average, which is this blue line. Uh we blew through that like a hot knife through butter in the last couple of days. And I think the next upside target is probably going to be $4,000 gold. Now, the way I got that was if we go out longterm here, I'm going to go to the weekly chart on gold. We'll get rid of the RSI and MACD here. And we've got this super bullish cup and handle pattern right here. Right, like that. And then now we've had this beautiful breakout. And there's two ways to measure uh targets on a cup and handle pattern. And one of them is to use what's called uh just I I call it the value target. And basically, you just take the bottom of the cup to the top right side of the cup and see we've got about a $1,000 move. And then you extend this up to the breakout. And we can see that we've surpassed that. We've gotten up to, you know, that was around 3100 or so. That has come and gone. The next way to measure it is to do the logarithmic target. And so you take the log target, which is the percentage move, and we basically have a 100% move from the bottom of the cup to the top right side of the cup. And if we extend that out, we can see that from going from there up to a 100% move, if I shrink this down just a little bit, anyways, it takes you right around 4,000, maybe 4,100 or so. Another way you can measure the target would be using a Fibonacci extension, which is how I got the 3750 target. And the next targets up there, depending on where you measure it from, some going back as far as 25 years, others a little bit more recent. Uh, the next number I get after 4,000 is around 4,300. I do got to say I think I would be pretty shocked if we got up to 4,000 and didn't have some type of of corrective move. Uh, I suppose anything's possible. We blew through the 3750. I didn't expect that. Uh, so maybe it'll go on up, but um, yeah, we're getting pretty stretched here. I think, you know, for most people that are, you know, u watching and they've got a lot of gold stocks, I think that we we you really need to think about trimming. You know, maybe treat it like a money manager. And if you've got 20% of your account in gold and gold stocks and you know, with this last run, you know, maybe you've gotten up to 22, 23, 24%. Maybe knock it back down to 20. You know, take you got to pay yourself at some point. you know, when I go here to the uh uh GDX, I mean, this has just been a I on on my show, I put in these red, yellow, and green lines as kind of like, you know, limit order entry points, and I haven't really been able to move these things up in good conscience because I just feel like we've just gotten way too stretched, you know? Yeah. Yeah. This is really interesting to look at. I like how you show the multiple ways we can get up to that next gold price target. A number of points I want to follow up on. I think the first direction I want to go. So, we're looking at that 4,000 level next for gold. And I know last time we were talking, you're kind of saying 4,000 by the end of the year. Is that still when you think we'll get there or or is that move forward now that we've seen all this other price activity? I think it could happen pretty quickly. I really do. I I think it um yeah, just the way these breakouts are going, the patterns I'm seeing, I mean, uh it wouldn't surprise me if they're if we're there within the next month or month and a half. Yeah, I think that's definitely sounding more and more possible the further forward we go here. And so maybe then we can talk a little bit more about those potential entry points for people who are just getting into gold or maybe they still want to add to their position as they see this further price increase coming forward. Okay. I'm I'm kind of a bottom picker, you know. I'm the guy that that kind of collects here while the bull flag is forming, you know. Uh if if we go to the GDX here, the green arrows are my entry points and the red arrows are where I'm trimming. Anytime you see this, this is kind of like a running joke on my show past the point of concern. I got I got it from Rick Rule. Basically selling enough to where your position is free. So I'm not really the guy that can buy these like breakouts here. What I like to do is I like to see radical corrections and then I I kind of catch double bottoms where you know where if this shoots up and then it were to come down to the same price point like right there, I would be the guy that would catch that double bottom on the next wave up. And if it's any consolation, I think the further and faster this moves up, I think the harder the correction will be. Like honestly, what would have been best I think for long-term gold investors is for this to have hit the 3750 and then correct back down here to the 3500 level or even better down here to the 200 day mo uh moving average and then bounce up. That I think would have created a much longer, more sustainable uh uh bull run. This kind of blowoff top that I'm seeing here um I I I just I just can't press the buy button on something like that, you know. Um, I would be patient here and I would uh I would wait for a retrace and and that may sound a little strange. You know, I just said that I think it's probably going to 4,000. Yeah, but are you going to be able to like buy here at 3,800 and then sell at 4,000? I don't know. You're a better man than I am if you could do that at uh I don't know if I could, you know, we could get another little target here. This is a quasi like bull flag right here. It's not a very good one. I don't know that it's one that I would really trade, but but it's it's something. And we take that measured move right here, add it up to the top, and we've already had a little breakout of that, and it could go up to there around 4,100 or so, which kind of lines up with the logarithmic target that we talked about before on the cup and handle. Um, yeah, as far as entry points here on gold stocks, I've I've generally been a seller, uh, not a buyer. I think it makes a lot of sense how you're explaining it there. And one thing I wanted to ask you when it comes to looking at the gold price. So from my understanding when you're doing technical analysis, it's looking at a lot of patterns looking back at historical performance. And when we get into times like this, when we're kind of in uncharted territory for gold at all-time highs, does that impact how you're looking at the charts there? Does that impact the work that you're doing? Yeah, it does a lot. Uh, for example, let me Okay, so if I go back on the gold chart here, once we've broken out to all-time highs, you're kind of in no man's land, you know, like it hasn't been done before. There's a This is a whole new price range. So, there's no real back test. Like, if I go to the silver chart here, uh, let me hide the drawings here just so we can clean it up a little bit. um go out to the weekly and we can see that we've had a top back here of you know 1980 around $50 and then another one here around 2011. So that's kind of what you're referencing, right? So when we we can all see that back here in around 2011 it got up to the same point around $44. Okay? So that's going to act as resistance and then again it got up here to like 48, right? So that's going to act as as resistance when the price gets there. But once you blow past that, once once we get up to 52, 53, it's never been done before. So there's no reference to uh to look back on in history to see like, okay, where could be some hiccups? Where could be some stopping points on this? What you have to do on that point like we're doing now with gold is you have to use uh extension targets like Fibonacci extension. You got to use cup and handle patterns. Okay, what's the upside target on that? um you have to look at past breakouts and see how far did it move in in in the past breakouts and what could that look like in today's dollar. So yeah, definitely when when you're in new all-time highs, it kind of enters a different phase of technical analysis, one that's a lot less certain. Very very interesting to go into that and I know that you're really focused on the technical side, but for gold, it's got so many fundamental factors right now that are in its corner and helping to drive it. So, I thought I'd spend at least a little bit of time there and ask you when you look at kind of the fundamental side. What are you picking out as maybe gold's top driver at the moment? What are you focusing on there? Oh, uh, okay. Well, here's one. Uh, this is the M2 money supply. Good one. Good one. as this goes up, right? Like as governments around the world as they print more currency, uh it takes more of those dollars or yen or yuan or whatever to buy the same goods and services. And so as the money supply goes up, uh the price of gold and silver and you know cost of a barrel of oil and you know a pound of copper fill in the blank is going to go up. So governments have kind of entered into this experiment on August 15th um 1950 I'm sorry 1971 where they're all just on a fake fiat currency and it you know it's kind of like some of our mentors say like it's the cleanest shirt and the dirty laundry the dollar is. So you kind of base it on that. But I think like a lot of these I have uh you know I compare a lot of commodities to gold because I look at gold as real money and uh you know these currencies are just kind of floating aspects in time compared against each other. I think if you can compare it against something like you know start looking and thinking of things in like well how how much how much is a house priced in barrels of oil? How much is a house priced in thousand bars of silver? you know, if you can kind of compare things, uh, you know, their cost, not in relation to the currency that you're using, but in relation to the average cost of an SUV, you know, that I think kind of lets you know what's going on with it. So, long story short, fundamentally, I still think there is some major tailwinds for gold. I just I'm starting to see some cracks in the general market. I mean, um, you know, the jobs market isn't looking very good. That is way under reportported. there are far more people unemployed than they're talking about. I think we're going to enter into a recession. And when that happens, historically, gold usually has a selloff because it acts like it should. It it's it's real money and people use it as so. And and nobody cares about uh their gold stocks when they lose their job. They got to pay for it so they could pay the mortgage and put food on the table. And I think we'll have a pretty good correction and I think we're getting closer and closer to that. You know, the further and faster this moves up, I think the harder uh the fall will be. And um yeah, I'm kind of looking forward to that. I think I I've been raising some cash and uh so my followers and I think when that comes, it's going to be a nice little uh u when everyone else is selling and getting out, that's kind of when you need to double down, you know. Yeah, great takeaways there and a good chart to go along with it. And I want to spend just a little bit more time looking at the gold stocks cuz I remember last time we're talking I believe it was you just sold Bareric and Pneumont and you're talking about a rotation toward mid tiers and so I'm wondering if we can check in on your your current gold stock strategy. I imagine that's kind of still the direction that you're going in, but anything further you'd add on that note. Yeah, I would say generally speaking, uh I've been selling. Okay, so here's uh here's GDX. Um, and uh, I'm probably going to trim a little bit more on this one. Uh, same with GDXJ. Usually when you get a chart that just has, you know, eight candles that are all green and gapping up like this, that is completely unsustainable, you know, and uh, so I'm going to be selling there. You're right. I did get out of um, uh, Pneumont, got out of Bareric, uh, kept my Agniko Eagle position, and I rotated a lot of that into Equinox Gold. I think those mid-tier ones uh are going to be doing well kind of in this part of the cycle, but they've also had a really fast run really quick. If I just pull up uh uh EQX here real real fast, we can take a look at that. And um yeah, since our last interview, it looks like I was psychic. Uh but yeah, basically we're buying down here when nobody cared. And then we recently took uh profits on that, you know. So, it kind of got up to our targets here, right in between these two um two white lines and we uh we took profits in there. But I really don't feel good about recommending this one until it gets back down here to the red, yellow, and green lines, which I hope happens. I really do. I hope that I hope that this sells off like like I'm anticipating and uh and has a nice little correction and then we can rinse and repeat the game again, you know. But I think a lot of these things, you know, the the hate that was uh surrounding some of these mid tiers is completely gone. And you know, um from what I've heard of Beaver Creek, I wasn't there. I've heard there was a lot of companies there that that people haven't seen in a long time. And and uh you know, that's usually not a good sign. That means that things are overs subscribed. You know what I mean? That there's there's too much euphoria around it. Like I like to find uh assets that are hated and cheap and gold stocks are not hated anymore. They've they've become I think they've entered loved, you know, and I think we need a little wash out here to kind of get some uh as Rick would say some jilted lovers uh in in the market and then that's that's when I'll strike again. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's certainly been a change and another good chart that shows us just how quickly things can move. All right. So, I think we've taken a pretty good look at gold and also of course want to see what's going on in silver. We've seen the price get past $44 per ounce and when we were talking last you were giving us a target of 414150 or so to watch. So, of course, we also need to ask what is the next silver price target that you're looking at? Okay. Yeah. So, last time we talked, we were uh approaching 4150 and that uh that hit some sideways resistance kind of like gold did for a while having that bull flag. This had a similar formation. So, my next target on that after 4150 was 44. And it looks like we're going to go through that. I mean, as we're recording today, it uh uh this is this is an impressive looking chart. And and I'm a little shocked. I I thought that uh uh once we hit 44, it would be a pretty quick correction and on the way back down. But if I go back on the silver chart, we can see the last time we did it, I alluded to it just a little bit earlier, is we could see this one bar right here, the high price right here was 4427 12 and today we're sitting at 44.56. So we've exceeded that um which is exciting and surprising as well. So, the next stop that I see, if I bring back this Fibonacci extension tool, uh, puts us right around, uh, $48. And so, I could see us getting up to maybe just a little south of that, $47, something like that. Th50, basically creating a triple top, right? Basically creating. Now, the $50 over here in 1980 doesn't even really show up on the chart, but it it's there. someone uh paid for it. But you can basically run a line straight across here and for it to hit this and break through, I would be pretty surprised. I think what's going to what's most likely to happen is we're probably going to come up to that, touch it, and then have a pretty nice correction. You know, back here when silver was 18 bucks an ounce, the average all-in sustaining cost for the miners was 19. So, the price had to go up, you know, or the supply is going to dwindle because they're not making a profit, right? Uh the price doesn't have to go up anymore, right? The silver miners are making massive profits here. And uh it doesn't have to keep going up. The only reason I think that it's going to is because of what's happening with the economy. We got a little interm before the recession really starts to do its worst. And I think that's when people will start liquidating their positions. But like if we look at some of the uh um uh like here's the gold to silver ratio. This is this is pretty interesting and because it's happening like yesterday and today is we've had this triangle pattern here that has let me get rid of the volume so you can see it a little bit better. There we go. See we've had like this little touch touch and breakdown. So it looks to me like silver is going to outperform gold here. Now, they could both move up, but I think silver is going to move up a little bit faster because it's broken this pattern. And so, the next like like real thing to catch it, I mean, is somewhere around like 82 to1 and then we could get all the way down here to maybe like 78 75 to1. So, silver could have a pretty nice outperformance here. Um, you know, driving it higher there as far as in relation to gold. This one is an interesting one and we just took profits on this yesterday. This is the SIJ, so the uh junior silver miners ETF. Um I mean here, this is back in 2013 when in its inception and after that you can see it just entered into a massive bare market. But this has kind of a little cycle to it. You know, some guys call them time counts. I I just I don't know what I I don't even know if I have a word for it, but uh see how it just kind of follows this cycle of like this U and this U. Like, does that look sustainable? You know, I I at some point you got to pay yourself. Now, I haven't sold everything. What if I'm wrong and this thing just blows up and and goes to $50 a share or something. I want to still be in the game, you know. Uh but I I've I've certainly I forgot to put the PTP here. Yeah, I am well free on this one and so are my uh uh listeners and and you know, I mean, that's kind of textbook right there. Just pick the high. See, there's another one right here. You can probably already see it, but I'll draw it. is you got kind of this downward channel trend line right there. Like those are little points where you can kind of take profits, you know, but when it's just screaming and all you see on the weekly chart are just green, green, green, green, green, gap up, like you got you got to click the sell button at some point in my opinion. Yeah. Yeah, I definitely see what you mean. Okay. So, looking at silver, we have that $48 level that you mentioned you're looking for. I'm going to ask again, do you have a do you have a time frame on that that you would assign there? How are you looking at it? Time frames are tough. Um, but I I think sooner rather than later, probably in the next um oh man, I don't know, few weeks, something like that, maybe a month. I if it's going to go, it's going to go quick. Uh, and you know, if if this is going to reverse, I think it's going to reverse quick. But, uh, my money's on up. I I think, and again, I'm not I'm not a breakout guy, you know what I mean? I'm a bottom picker, so I I can't buy these, you know? I'm selling here. But uh it looks to me like it's it's probably going to hit 48. Yeah. Yeah. I know. I know the timing is really tough. So, thank you. Appreciate you going into that. And also on the precious metals note, so before we turn the camera on, we're talking a little bit about what's going on with platinum and you're mentioning that the chart is looking pretty interesting today. So platinum is one for me it's kind of been in and out of the news as the price moves this year. So what are you seeing right now? How's it looking? Okay, this is really interesting and uh I saw this in real time when we were talking. I I clicked on platinum and oh wow, that's pretty cool. So long-term view here on platinum. Okay, we had massive move up and then down and then up and then just kind of consolidated here in platinum and it was pretty boring for about I don't know 10 years or so since like 2015. It it just kind of hung around the an average cost of around $950 somewhere around there. Recently, we've just broken up to the upside. Uh, which is fantastic because we've had platinum shortages for a while. I know you talked to uh Ed Sturk a lot and I started having them on my show and uh there is a platinum deficit forecast uh for the foreseeable future. So, that's encouraging if you're a platinum investor. Uh so, here's where we are now. Uh basically, let me go to the daily here. I kind of like any entries anywhere around um 1,400 bucks, you know, somewhere around there. I think that's kind of our new price. We're talking about platinum for 2 years and nobody cared, you know, it was $900 and anytime it got down there. But the risk of that was, you know, the risk of being a bottom picker is you could be a bottom picker for a decade and just be wrong, you know, and there is a time value cost of uh of money on that. You know what I mean? Inflation is eating away at your at your dollar. But the fundamental case for it was basically that uh there there's a diminishing um uh supply uh increasing demand and u these miners are kind of running out of cost effective platinum to pull out of the ground. So eventually that reversed. It looks like we're here and I think this one could actually outperform silver which is kind of a bold statement. But if we go here to the platinum to gold ratio, this is basically how I'm playing it is I'm not necessarily looking at the price so much of platinum is I'm looking at the ratio and the ratio of uh platinum to gold and platinum to silver. And the further down this is on the chart here, the cheaper platinum is compared to gold. And the higher up on the chart it is, the more expensive platinum is to gold. And same thing here with silver is the further down here the cheaper platinum is in relation to silver and then the higher the more expensive. So basically what I'm going to do is I'm going to start selling my platinum or trading it for gold once we reach these levels. So once platinum gets to par with gold, once you could trade 1 ounce of platinum for 1 oz of gold, right? Then I'm going to trade half of my platinum for gold, once it gets up to 1 and a half to one, I'm going to trade another 30% and then if it ever gets to 2x to gold, which I think it will, uh, then I will trade the remaining bet that I have on platinum for gold. Um, but yeah, now platinum in relation to those two metals are extremely cheap. Even though we've had a nice run here, it will be interesting to see if we get a little breakout from this from this trend line right here. You need three points to make a trend line. And we've got three right there. It looks like once this hits up to the fourth one, this may actually be a breakout that I could buy. Okay, like a triple top hit three times, this would be the fourth one. And it looks like it's coming here pretty soon. So, if it got up to, let's see what level that would be. That would be around call it 1530. If it broke out to 1530 in the next day or two, I would actually probably buy more platinum. So, that may be one example where I could buy the breakout. Okay. Okay. There's always an exception. I think that proves the rule. So, that's what it is there. All right. Really good to take a look at platinum. It's definitely interesting. And I I've been speaking to Ed Sturk for years. We spent years, I think, talking about those positive fundamentals before the price started to move. So, it's it's just it's interesting to see how you have to balance the timing. All right. So, let's move over to uranium, which is another one where I think the timing is key. We had talked about that last time as well, and we're speaking about that disconnect between the term price and the spot price, and you're mentioning, all right, the term price was higher than the spot price, so there was some room for it to move up. So, probably interesting to take a look at how that's been playing out since that conversation. Yeah. So, we've gotten a little bit of catch-up here. the uh term price, the cheapest term price going 12 months or more out right now is sitting at $81. Okay. And today we're sitting at 778.15. So we're pretty close. We're not as cheap as we were before. When we were talking before it was around 70 bucks or so. That gap is closed. So the bet isn't as good as it was uh back then, but I still think that there's some room for uranium to go here. The fundamental argument is still very very good. And one of the things that I've been doing personally, you know, not financial advice or anything, but uh one one thing I've been doing is I've been storing some of my dollars in this fund right here. And this is SR UF. This is the SPRAT physical uh uranium trust. And I just think uranium is going to outperform uh pretty much every currency on the planet. And so if you can get into this fund and basically store your dollars, I think that's a better bet than your currency. As far as cash, it's super liquid for you know uh anyone watching this show and um you know for all our followers and uh I like it a lot. Uh there is an interesting pattern right here that I shared on my show. Now we talked about the cup and handle pattern before and so for a cup and handle it needs to be in a bullish uptrend. Click and then here you got the cup the handle and then off. And we've just had a breakout here on the um uh on the on the cup and handle. So, we could do the same thing and we could do a measured upside target just like we um uh like we did on the last one. And we basically just take the bottom of the cup to the top right side and then project it up. I won't bother with the log target here because we got to get to this the value target first. But that would take this fund up to 21 $22 somewhere in that range. And uh so I think it could have another couple bucks to go. Um but yeah, I like this fund a lot. I've got 5% of my account in it. Maybe that's a little heavy to be all into uranium. I suppose we're one Fukushima away from that bet blowing up. But uh but yeah, I like this one a lot. But I I will be I will be trimming it. I think um you know, one of one of the other ways that I would look as times to trim this would be when this moves to a premium. If you go to the if you go to Sprat's website, they literally display what what the cost of uranium is and what you can buy it for in this fund. And when it historically whenever this thing gets down to like a, you know, 15%, 12%, I've seen as high as 18% discount. In other words, you could buy $100 worth of uranium, but it only cost you 82. That's a pretty good deal in my book. You know what I mean? So, that's kind of where the green arrows are. And then our uh u you know the kindergarten way to sell it is once that goes to a premium then then I unload it. Um but this is one exception here in that uh the bullish case right now and the fundamentals for it are so good and I think the fundamentals for the dollar are pretty bad that I don't mind hanging on to this even though it's at a premium because I think it'll outperform cash. Yeah. Yeah. That's an interesting way to frame it that I think might help people understand it a little bit more the the opportunity there. And I want to take a little bit of a look at the uranium equities as well because I remember you had told us maybe they were getting a little bit ahead of themselves. And my sense is that since we're talking previously, the developments in the uranium market may have pushed some of those stocks even further. I know we had among other developments because there's always things happening in uranium but the US administration potentially talking about increasing uranium reserves. So for the stocks how are you feeling? That's pretty well said. I think they're pretty stretched. If we go back here is this. So this is URMM right? And uh if if if you have no uranium and you just want to get in uranium after you've purchased SRUF, I think this is the next best thing. And we can see historically, so this this came into be around 2019. And uh the first big move here was 165%. And then we had a nice little 30% sell-off here. And then the next move up was 105. And then it was just boring forever like for a couple of years, right? This is when I learned about it or you would have seen green hours over here. Uh then we had 103% move. Red arrows sell. Nice correction. Should have sold there, but you know, now that I could see the future, I could see straight looking backwards. kept buying more and buying more and then trimming position, right? So, it's more than 2% of the account now. It was probably higher than that with this last couple of days, but this is kind of one of those kindergarten methods in technical analysis, right? We look back over here around 60 bucks on this day. It got up to 5952. So, we've exceeded the all-time highs right here from the previous one. if there's any time to trim and take some profits, that's that's your that's your that's the easiest one you're going to get. You know what I mean? And I don't think it's a coincidence that we're having a little bit of hesitation right here and it's not just blowing through it. It's because all as technical analysis, we're all looking at the same thing, you know? I mean, with some exceptions, some guys have different moving averages or whatever, but the vast majority of us are just looking at the same thing and we see the same thing on the charts. when you see it touching uh you know a previous all-time high, there's a bunch of people taking profits there. You know what I mean? That's that's not a coincidence. So, I I think it'd be prudent to do that. You know, if you got in down here around when uh Trump did his liberation day and everything sold off, you know, I mean, you you're up 118%. Today, some point you got to click the sell button, you know. Yeah. Yeah. It's always a good reminder. You do have to remember to do that at certain points and not get too attached. So also on the energy side, I remember you are liking oil and gas as well. So this is less of a a strong point for me. So I'm wondering if you can review the price action perhaps that we've been seeing in oil and what the charts are are telling you there in terms of what comes next. Okay. Yeah, the oil is really interesting. I I put something out to premium subscribers to watch this white line right here. Let me get the volume out of the way so you can see it better. But you could see that right here it hit, if I hover over this, it hit a low of 6145. This is WTI. Uh, and then here it hit 6145. And we're waiting for it to hit 6145 and break down or break up. And it just never quite got there. It got right here to 6161. Uh, maybe that was tradable. Maybe not. Maybe I'm getting a little bit too Sometimes I get too far into the weeds. But I was looking for an opportunity to short oil this week and that doesn't look like it's going to happen. It looks like oil is going to move up next week. But I think ultimately we probably do get a little bit of a breakdown here in some of the oil equities. And uh I'm I'm kind of hoping going into this economic recession, if I'm right, that we're going to have one. I I think oil is probably going to get sold off because that's usually what happens during recessions. you know, people travel less and companies need less uh energy for their businesses because people are buying less stuff. Uh so the energy to do that oil uh usually goes down. So I'd like to catch a little shorting opportunity here. Um but generally speaking, I think we're probably going to have a breakdown in oil. Some of the levels that I'm watching around $60 and then this one right over here would be 55. So if it gets down to that point, here's a really easy one that just about everyone can bet. This is XLE. Uh so this is uh um basically an oil ETF. The biggest holdings are the two best companies, Exxon and Chevron. And then it goes down from there. Accidental and Kico Phillips and all that. Um but you know, I think for a lot of people in their 401ks and retirement accounts, this is a really easy one. And they're offered almost everywhere. I like this spot right here a lot and that's why I got the red line drawn on it. And it just, you can see it just came down there perfectly and then just bounced right up. And it it's not super scientific. All it is is we're just looking right here at this 200 day moving average is the darker one and the 50-day moving average is slightly lighter and it's crossing above. So that in technical analysis is called a golden cross and uh yeah that's that's a pretty easy uh entry point right there. Now I would expect in a recession that this is going to sell off even more. So after that let's say your level if you haven't bet this one yet that would be your first entry point 87 or maybe a couple cents above. And if I'm right and this gets go going going through, it'll hit that one. And then the next level of support is going to be right here. It's going to be 8450. Okay? And then the one after that, I got down at 79.25. But remember, oil can get stupid. When it got into CO, this was the trade of my life when oil went negative. I mean, these went way down. So, this could have a super wash out. But if uh our mentors are right, the average all-in sustaining cost of a barrel of oil worldwide is 60 bucks a barrel, and that's pretty much where we're at. So, if it goes down below that for any sustained amount of time, they're going to start shutting down a lot of these oil wells, creating a supply crunch, and um and and it'll reverse. And so, yeah, I everyone's real excited about gold and silver and uranium right now. I think you got to look at like what's really cheap, you know, what's what's what's the next thing to move, right? Like like we talked about platinum's probably about ready to have a breakout. You know, I'd be more focused on taking some of the profits from gold and silver and putting them into platinum or taking some of the profits from gold and silver and putting it into oil. You know, uh nickel's also really cheap right now. That chart looks amazing. Um if if you don't I I'll let you lead this. I'm sorry. I don't mean to get No, no, no. Absolutely. I feel like I always am frontloading the conversations with what is hot right now, the gold and the silver, but these are the real opportunities. So, let's talk about nickel if you're if you're seeing something there. Okay. Yeah. So, here's the um uh here's the spot price of nickel. So, it's about 15,000 a ton. And we can see this is pretty volatile, which is just, you know, this is exactly what we're looking for in as as commodity investors, right? I mean, you just want to see just some massive spikes, massive declines. You want it to look like the lithium chart where it just goes parabolic and then comes back down because that's where you can really make some money. Now, this is where I get really excited is if we zoom in here, if I get rid of the moving averages here and I'll turn this into a line chart so that it uh uh maybe is a little easier to see. I mean, you can see this just looks like a dying heartbeat, right? So, this is basically the uh the cost of of nickel. Right now, we had some little spikes here in 2024 and then came back down and then we had this little drop right here. This was on Trump's liberation day when he held up the chalkboard with all the tariffs. So, we're going to, you know, tariff this island 113% or whatever. Right. So, even on that when everything got smoked to the downside, this really didn't fall that much. I mean, it only fell what is that 10% or something? Yeah, like 10%. Okay, so this is basically the cost of nickel. The fundamental bet with this is they have a lot of really cheap nickel coming out of Indonesia right now and it's all run by Chinese companies. And basically what they've done is they've paid off the politicians there to allow them to run this the these cheap uh nickel mines and they're just destroying the islands. You can see it on Google Maps if you can just see the damage that's done. Now, the local people are trying to stop that and trying to clean it up. But the politicians are paid off by China to not do so. So, when does that game end? I have no idea. I have no idea. This This is kind of like when we're betting platinum 2 years ago and the chart looked very similar to this. You know, when is this just going to keep going on and on and on for the next 8 years? or are we going to have a violent rerating when the people of Indonesia win and we uh you know we stop mining there and instantly the nickel price is going to rerate and it's going to rerate violently. But I have no idea when that's going to happen and you got to be positioned before it does. So I like this one a lot right now. I really do. Easy beta way to play it is Nikk. Uh this is just a SPR nickel miners ETF and um you know you're getting a lot of the good, bad, and the ugly, but this is a way that just about everyone can play it. And caveat here, this is this is very very small market cap. No one's betting on this. I mean like look at look at the volume right here so far today. Uh 10,000 shares. Limit orders only. Be patient. Uh wait for a retrace. Here's here's the lines I got. 1225, 1150, 1075. you know, you don't uh uh but you know, you go up here to URMM and look at the volumes on URMM here. Okay, we got 549,000 shares so far just a day. Okay, so so don't don't get happy with the market orders on on that ETF, but but that's an opportunity I see right now is a nickel for sure. That's a that's a great one to go into looking for those hated sectors and it does feel like something that is unsustainable at at some point in time. We don't know when, but I'm sure the situation will change. So, really interesting to look at nickel. And I'll bring in another base metal as well that I wanted to talk about, which is copper. And you're mentioning recession concerns, and I know that people look at copper as kind of a bellweather for the global economy and what can it be telling us about what's happening there. So, I wondered if we could take a look at copper in that context. Yeah. Um, basically what we've had here, so I think a lot of this we got a kind of discount. Uh, this was the Trump tariff. I think he he said on the news or something, we're going to do a 50% tax on copper and then anyway said, "Oh, I was just kidding." This is how I'm looking at it and how I've been playing it for the last 3 years is this white trend line right here of copper. Okay? And anytime the price action has gotten down to here, it is just been a good time to buy, you know, and uh any one of these, there's the liberation day selloff. Uh we can line that up this point right here with COPX. This is an easy uh copper miners ETF that just about everyone can buy. And this is the sell-off right here. I was I was I was selling uh puts and being put to the stock right here. So, it was a little scary when it was just falling and I was purchasing 100 shares at a time. Uh, but uh but that, you know, turned out to work out pretty well. Um, I think copper is going to do amazing. I think that uh um it's it's we as a planet are consuming more and more copper every single year and the big copper miners um are are are going away and we're not discovering more. And so I think that's going to create a squeeze. I think it'll probably happen in the next, you know, during this decade. I I don't think you're going to have to wait until like 20 uh 2030 or anything like that. And it already has worked. I mean, if you've just boughten around this line, like if you just go to COPX here, just buy the dips down here, it's working. You know what I mean? I think this is going to be a little bit more of a slow grind. I don't know that it'll be the parabolic moves that we're all loving like with uranium and and gold. I think it'll be a little bit more of a of a slow grind, but but I definitely think it's going to happen. Now, there is some uh uh risk about what you talked about. If we are going into a global worldwide recession, uh typically when um you know, when we enter into a recession, copper gets hit and it usually gets hit pretty hard. I've done some work before with timing up the recessions and looking at those hits and it uh it it is a fairly accurate one, but as far as so far it's worked what I've done and I've been afraid of a recession since back here. I remember on my show in 2023 I did the top 13 reasons why we're going into a recession in 2023 and I've just been wrong. So, if that has held me and stopped me from buying copper, I would have missed out on being up 40% just in this fund. You know what I mean? So, I think sometimes things are cheap enough and this white line so far has just proven to be gospel and until that gets broken, I'm going to keep playing it that way. All right. Well, we have been through so much today, so thank you for going through all of these different topics. I will let you go unless you had any final thoughts. And I do know you also have a course that we should tell everybody about. We'll have the link in the video description. Yeah, it's a technical analysis video series for beginners. So, it's 3 hours worth of videos going over the charts just like you've seen here. The first 30 minutes are me showing you exactly click byclick how to set up the charts. So, the software is not an issue. It's easy. You can set up your screen just like I have mine or you can tailor it to however you want. And basically what we do is we take the fear out of buying and selling. I like to think of it like the fundamentals tell you what to buy and what to sell. And the technicals tell you when to do that, right? They tell you when to buy and they tell you when to sell. And it really is kind of a calming uh effect when there's FOMO and the chart is just screaming up. You know, if you can line that up with some previous highs, you can feel fairly confident on that. and we go over all of that in the technical analysis series. I'm getting a lot of positive feedback from it and I hope your viewers uh will find it helpful as well. Amazing. So, we will have the link down there and any final thoughts you would leave people with? Um yeah, if if you like what you see, check out the TA series and also go to stevebartmoney.com for more. Um and uh thank you for thank you for having me on the show. Of course. Once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Steve Barton with Init. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]